2010 Victorian state election

Victorian state election, 2010

27 November 2010

Leader John Brumby Ted Baillieu Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Leader since 30 July 2007 8 May 2006 Leader's seat Broadmeadows Hawthorn Last election 55 seats 32 seats Seats needed 0 13 2PP @ 2006 54.4% 45.6% 2PP polling 51% 49% PP polling 50% 36%

The next Victorian State election will be held on 27 November 2010. The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party government led by Premier of Victoria John Brumby will be challenged by the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition opposition led by Ted Baillieu.

Victoria has compulsory voting and uses preferential ballot in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

Date

Terms are fixed at four years. The election will occur in line with the fixed term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.

Key dates for the election are:

• 2 November: Dissolution of Parliament and writs for the election lodged
• 9 November: Close of rolls
• 11 November: Close of nominations for party candidates
• 12 November: Close of nominations for independents
• 15 November: Early voting commences
• 25 November: Close of postal voting
• 26 November: Early voting closes
• 27 November: Election polls occur 8 am to 6 pm

Background

See also: Results and maps of the Victorian state election, 2006

See also: Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2006

Labor led by Steve Bracks came to power as a minority government at the 1999 election, defeating the incumbent Jeff Kennett Liberal/National Coalition government. Labor was returned with a majority government after a landslide win at the 2002 election. Labor was elected for a third term at the 2006 election with a substantial but reduced majority. Labor won 55 of the 88 seats up for election, a decrease of 7, and 54.4 percent of the two-party preferred vote, a decrease of 3.4 percent. Brumby replaced Bracks as Labor leader and Premier of Victoria in 2007.

Since the last election there have been four by-elections, in Bracks' seat of Williamstown and former Deputy Premier John Thwaites' seat of Albert Park in 2007, former minister Andre Haermeyer's seat of Kororoit in 2008, and former minister Lynne Kosky's seat of Altona in 2010. All four seats were retained by Labor.

Labor MP Craig Langdon resigned from the Parliament and his seat of Ivanhoe on 25 August 2010. A writ was issued for a by-election in the seat, but this was discharged by the Parliamentary Speaker, due to the proximity of the full state election, and the substantial cost of holding a separate by-election three weeks beforehand.

Campaign

See also: Candidates of the Victorian state election, 2010

Adam Bandt, Brian Walters and Bob Brown of the Greens during the election campaign

The Liberal and National Parties will contest the election as a Coalition. They had not done so since the split of the Victorian Coalition in 1999.

Fix the problems. Build the future.

The Liberal/ Nationals Coalition launched there official campaign for the 2010 State election on Sunday 14 November 2010 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre in Melbourne within the electoral district with that same name. Key-note speakers at the launch included The The Leader of the Federal Opposition and Liberal Party, Tony Abbott and Victorian Liberal Leader Ted Ballieu aswell as Nationals Leader Peter Ryan. In attendance included former Premier Jeff Kennett and David Kemp. The Coalition's campaign slogan launched for the election was 'Fix the problems. Build the future'.

For the times ahead

The Victorian Branch of the Australian Labor Party launched there official campaign for the 2010 State election on Tuesday 16 November 2010 in Bendigo, within the marginal electorate of Bendigo East. Key-note speakers at the launch included the Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who welcomed Premier John Brumby onto the stage as well as Deputy Premier Rob Hulls. In attendance were former Premier's Steve Bracks and Joan Kirner. Labor's election slogan launched at the election was 'For the times ahead'.

Retiring MPs

Labor

• Peter Batchelor MLA (Thomastown)
• Bob Cameron MLA (Bendigo West)
• Carlo Carli MLA (Brunswick)
• Judy Maddigan MLA (Essendon)
• Karen Overington MLA (Ballarat West)
• George Seitz MLA (Keilor)

Liberal

• Helen Shardey MLA (Caulfield)
• John Vogels MLC (Western Victoria Region)

National

• Ken Jasper MLA (Murray Valley)

Polling

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at ±3 percent.

Better Premier ratings^

	Labor Brumby	Liberal Baillieu
9 – 11 Nov 2010	50%	36%
Sep – Oct 2010	49%	31%
Jul – Aug 2010	52%	27%
May – Jun 2010	47%	31%
Mar – Apr 2010	49%	29%
Jan – Feb 2010	51%	29%
Nov – Dec 2009	54%	26%
Sep – Oct 2009	52%	27%
Jul – Aug 2009	52%	27%
May – Jun 2009	54%	21%
Jan – Feb 2009	54%	22%
Nov – Dec 2008	49%	27%
Sep – Oct 2008	45%	27%
Jul – Aug 2008	48%	26%
May – Jun 2008	51%	28%
Mar – Apr 2008	49%	23%
Jan – Feb 2008	48%	25%
Nov – Dec 2007	51%	22%
Sep – Oct 2007	51%	25%
2006 election	–	–
22 – 23 Nov 2006	53%1	30%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. 1 Steve Bracks. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Legislative Assembly (lower house) opinion polling

	Primary vote					2PP vote
	Lab	Lib	Nat	Gre	Oth	Lab	Coa
9 – 11 Nov 2010	37%	39%	5%	14%	5%	51%	49%
Sep – Oct 2010	35%	36%	4%	19%	6%	52%	48%
Jul – Aug 2010	38%	32%	4%	17%	9%	55%	45%
May – Jun 2010	34%	36%	4%	18%	8%	51%	49%
Mar – Apr 2010	37%	38%	3%	14%	8%	52%	48%
Jan – Feb 2010	39%	36%	3%	14%	8%	54%	46%
Nov – Dec 2009	41%	32%	3%	14%	10%	57%	43%
Sep – Oct 2009	43%	32%	3%	15%	7%	57%	43%
Jul – Aug 2009	43%	35%	2%	12%	8%	56%	44%
May – Jun 2009	42%	34%	3%	14%	7%	56%	44%
Jan – Feb 2009	46%	31%	2%	15%	6%	60%	40%
Nov – Dec 2008	45%	34%	3%	13%	5%	57%	43%
Sep – Oct 2008	37%	37%	4%	15%	7%	51%	49%
Jul – Aug 2008	41%	34%	4%	12%	9%	54%	46%
May – Jun 2008	41%	35%	3%	14%	7%	55%	45%
Mar – Apr 2008	44%	33%	3%	12%	8%	58%	42%
Jan – Feb 2008	43%	34%	3%	12%	8%	56%	44%
Nov – Dec 2007	51%	31%	3%	9%	6%	60%	40%
Sep – Oct 2007	49%	36%	4%	6%	5%	56%	44%
2006 election result	43.1%	34.4%	5.2%	10.0%	7.3%	54.4%	45.6%
22 – 23 Nov 2006	45%	32%	5%	9%	9%	56%	44%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.