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{{legend|{{{color2|#FF4F00}}}|[[Russia]]}}]]
{{legend|{{{color2|#FF4F00}}}|[[Russia]]}}]]


Some academics have speculated on nations that are '''potential superpowers''' in the [[21st century]], mentioning several candidates. Whether the [[People's Republic of China]],<ref>[http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/08/news/fighter.php]</ref> [[India]],<ref>[http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11571348/site/newsweek/ India Rising]</ref> [[Russia]],<ref>http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2002/spring_russia_hill.aspx</ref> [[Russia]], or the [[European Union]],<ref>[http://www.globalpowereurope.eu/]</ref> will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate. The most common belief held is that only the [[United States of America]] currently fulfills the criteria to be considered a [[superpower]]; although it is a matter of debate as to whether its a [[hegemon]].<ref name="by Edward A. Kolodziej and Roger E. Kanet">{{cite web |title= From Superpower to Besieged Global Power
Some academics have speculated on nations that are '''potential superpowers''' in the [[21st century]], mentioning several candidates. Whether the [[People's Republic of China]],<ref>[http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/08/news/fighter.php]</ref> [[India]],<ref>[http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11571348/site/newsweek/ India Rising]</ref> [[Russia]],<ref>http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2002/spring_russia_hill.aspx</ref>. or the [[European Union]],<ref>[http://www.globalpowereurope.eu/]</ref> will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate. The most common belief held is that only the [[United States of America]] currently fulfills the criteria to be considered a [[superpower]]; although it is a matter of debate right now on Russia as superpower<ref>http://www.cambridge.org/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=0521836786</ref><ref>http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=768929</ref>[[hegemon]].<ref name="by Edward A. Kolodziej and Roger E. Kanet">{{cite web |title= From Superpower to Besieged Global Power
|publisher=''University Georgia Press ''
|publisher=''University Georgia Press ''
|url=http://www.ugapress.uga.edu/0820329770.html
|url=http://www.ugapress.uga.edu/0820329770.html

Revision as of 23:33, 22 June 2008

The present day governments to be called, or to remain, a potential superpower for the 21st century.
  United States
  China
  European Union
  India
  Russia

Some academics have speculated on nations that are potential superpowers in the 21st century, mentioning several candidates. Whether the People's Republic of China,[1] India,[2] Russia,[3]. or the European Union,[4] will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate. The most common belief held is that only the United States of America currently fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower; although it is a matter of debate right now on Russia as superpower[5][6]hegemon.[7] [8][9] Brazil,[10] is considered by some to be a potential great power.[11]

The record of such predictions has not been accurate. For example, in the 1980s some political and economic analysts erroneously predicted that Japan would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, huge GDP, and high economic growth at that time.[12]

European Union

European Union

The European Union has been called an emerging superpower by academics.[13][14][15][16] T.R. Reid,[17] Andrew Reding[18] and Mark Leonard,[19][20] believe that the power of the European Union will rival that of the United States in the 21st century. Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large economy, low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members states' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week).[21] On the other hand Laurent Cohen-Tanugi[22] states that the EU as a whole has consistently suffered from a growth deficit vis-a-vis the US, high unemployment, and public deficits even while most member states of the EU lagged substantially behind the US in R&D investment, technological innovation, and, since 1995, productivity gains. Additionally, It is argued by commentators that full political integration is not required for the European Union to wield international influence: that its apparent weaknesses constitute its real strengths (as of its low profile diplomacy and the opsetion of the rule of law[23]) and that the EU represents a new and potentially more successful type of international actor than traditional ones [5]; however, it is uncertain if the effectiveness of such an influence would be equal to that of a politically integrated superpower. (e.g. United States)

Facts in Favor

Europe has long been a powerful cultural force in the world [24]. Overall the twenty-seven member states also have significant cultural influences on the entire globe, with European fashion, art and food being commonplace in nearly every corner of the planet. Europe has developed cultural power in architecture [25], cinema [26], dance [27], education [28], literature [29], music [30], and theatre [31]. European language [32] are used not only in Europe, but around the world (see Anglophone, Francophone, Hispanophone, and Lusophone). In terms of education, eight of the top fifteen ranks on the PISA were filled by EU member states with all western member states being represented among the top thirty.[33] The culture of the European Union is a series of the overlapping cultures of its member states. [34] Each of the nations that make up the EU have individual cultures, and no unified culture exists for the entire continent. [35] However, the European Union is active in promoting its rich cultural heritage. [36] [37] [38], at home as well as abroad [39].

The total population of all the member states of the European Union is 497,018,677, with a population growth rate of 0.12%. The EU has a total land area of 4,324,782 sq km, half the size of the US. The climate ranges from cold, subarctic temperatures in the north to dry, hot summers in the south and mild, wet winters in the west. The terrain is flat around the Baltic and Atlantic coasts, but becomes more mountainous in the central and southern areas of the continent. [40]

The European Union's combined economy is the strongest in the world, giving the EU considerable political power.

The EU currently features the world's largest GDP and consumer market and has considerable control over the global allocation of resources (see List of countries by GDP (nominal) and list of countries by GDP (PPP)), the economies of 27 member states and is generating an estimated nominal GDP of €11.9 trillion in 2008 according to the IMF. It accounts for about 31% of the world's total economic output. The EU has a GDP growth rate of 3% per year. The EU’s total workforce is 222.4 million, which is growing 2.6% each year. The combined member states have an unemployment rate of 6.7% as of march 2008.[41] The unemployment rate (EU25) had already declined in prior years from 8.9% in March 2005 to 8.4% in March 2006. The European Union has an inflation rate of 1.8%. Fifteen member states adopted a single currency, the euro, managed by the European Central Bank. The EU economy consists of a single market and is represented as a unified entity in the WTO. The Euro is one of the strongest currencies in the world, with an exchange rate of 1.5 Euros to one US dollar. [42]

The European Union does not have a common military. The EU's military capabilities are relatively limited, while "superpowers" traditionally wield considerable power in that sphere. Given planned force expansion, EU members will together field 4 fleet aircraft carriers as well as more than half a dozen smaller escort carriers and numerous surface warships by 2015.[citation needed]. The Euro Corps has deployed units on a variety of peace-keeping missions. European leaders have planned to expand the Euro Corps to include 13 1,500 man battle groups by the end of 2007, with more expansion continued in the future. 22 of the 27 nations of the EU have agreed to supply troops to the new battle groups. [43]

The majority of the EU’s military strength comes from it’s members states, who operate separate militaries and defense budgets. Four of the EU’s 27 members (France, Germany, Italy , the UK) are among the top 10 nations by military expenditure (see List of countries by military expenditure) Total European Union military expenditure is 311,920,000,000 US dollars, second only to the United States.

Many EU members import oil and gas from Russia.

Two EU members, France and the United Kingdom, are permanent members of the UN Security Council and have veto power. The EU is composed of many developed countries; by contrast, India and China are politically unified but still lack some economic, political, military, and social development. The European Union contains several current great powers — the United Kingdom, Germany, and France — along with 24 other countries. Also, the EU even seems to have developed a sphere of influence of close geographical nations, which was typical of the United States and Soviet Union in the Cold War.[44] Examples include candidate nations, EFTA members outside of the Union, and former colonies, especially in Africa. The EU plays the role of a normative hegemon [6]. It reverses the traditional balance of power, in the sense that states are not trying to counter-balance it but join it.

Facts Against

It is currently argued that the European Union is too politically and culturally fragmented to be considered as a single unit, especially since two of the principal levers of power, foreign policy and defense, are exercised principally by the individual member states< For instance, one member of the EU, Ireland, rejected the Lisbon Treaty, a treaty that would have strengthened the supranational powers of the EU, thus ensuring it will not be adopted. [45]. It would have to have been ratified by all 27 member states. Another example is that the EU has no common military, a major qualifier for superpower status. Much of the debate seems to stem from the EU being a sui generis entity. The EU has become increasingly reliant on energy from Russia and the Ukraine in recent years, so much that European leaders are beginning to call for diversifying the EU's energy. .[46]

People's Republic of China

People's Republic of China

The People's Republic of China receives continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status,[47][48] and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts.[49][50][51][52] Professor Shujie Yao of Nottingham University has said "China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2038 if current growth rates continue," and that China's GDP will overtake that of Japan by 2017 or 2018, and Germany's by 2008. Professor Yao thinks that "under an optimistic scenario," "China could become a real superpower in 30 years time."[53] Although China's GDP 'shrank' when the World Bank reported in late 2007 that they had overestimated China's economy by about 40%, the finding was based on a PPP estimation of the Chinese GDP, upon which the above estimations do not depend.[54]

Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China may become too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk in China: Fragile Superpower.[55] Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include: limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.[56]

India

Republic of India
Companies such as Infosys have brought on India's IT revolution

Newsweek and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential of becoming a superpower.[57][58][59] With 9.4% GDP growth in 2007[60], Goldman Sachs predicts that as 700 million Indians are expected to move to cities by 2050, the Indian economy may surpass the United States's (in US$) by 2043.[61]

"India has moved onto a much faster growth trajectory than the bank had previously expected, fueled by strong and steady productivity gains in its legions of new factories, which are producing everything from brassieres to cars." [61]

India's strength lies in its demographics; More than 50% of India's population is under 25.[61] Dr Narendra Jadhav, a principal advisor to the RBI and a former advisor to the executive director at the IMF, says "India has a great potential to become an economic super power because of its growing young population."[62] A young population coupled with the second largest English-speaking population in the world could give India an advantage over China.[63]

Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute and former counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan Administration Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. has embraced the notion being put forth that

"It is going to be India's century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century".[64]

China and India rising to superpower status is not inevitable, according to scholars such as Professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, who suggest that millions mired in poverty and ineffective government prevent China or India from rivaling the U.S. or the E.U. any time soon.[65]

With one of the largest defence budgets in the world, India possesses nuclear weapons, intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and is one of only 5 countries to with an aircraft carrier. It has successfully developed a Ballistic Missile Defense system, becoming only the fourth country to do so, after Israel, Russia and US. In 2007, India became the fourth nation in the world to sucessfully test a atmospheric reentry for Manned Space Mission, an indication of its recent commitments to established a manned space program. [66]

Russia

Russian Federation

The Russian Federation is a suggested potential candidate for achieving superpower status in the twenty-first century due to its fast-growing economy, energy superpower status and the size of its military. According to Steven Rosefielde of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Russia intends to "reemerge as a full-fledged superpower," and "contrary to conventional wisdom, this goal is easily within the Kremlin’s grasp, but the cost to the Russian people and global security would be immense" (Rosefielde 2005:1). Rosefielde further argues that "Russia has an intact military-industrial complex...and the mineral wealth to reactivate its dormant structurally militarized potential," and that "supply-side constraints don’t preclude a return to prodigal superpowerdom" (Rosefielde 2005:9).

In May 2007, the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation held special hearings devoted to Russia. They came to the conclusion that Russia is returning to the international arena as an influential political and economic power. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, said: "Russia has restored its position of a large political and economic force recently", also adding that "Russia’s strengthening has been accompanied by a cool down in its relations with the U.S." Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that the West "has few instruments of influence on Russia left." [67]

Alexander Golts of the St. Petersburg Times argues that Putin's confrontations with the US on nuclear issues are in pursuit of regaining superpower status for Russia.[68]

In a more recent report by ABC News, a senior U.S. official asserted that "Russia is once again indisputably the number two military power in the world, second only to the United States".[69] Russia's military strength has risen substantially under former President Putin, having recently produced the world's most powerful conventional bomb[70] and the worlds most advanced anti-ballistic missile system [71] to date. Additionally, its forces are currently in the midst of a $189 billion ($302 billion PPP) modernization plan. Russia's defence minister, Sergei Ivanov, said that he wanted to exceed the Soviet army in combat readiness.[72]

Mike Ritchie of industry analysts Energy Intelligence says "Russia was always a superpower that used its energy to win friends and influence among its former Soviet satellites. Nothing has really changed much. They are back in the same game, winning friends and influencing people and using their power to do so."[73]

Russia is often considered to be an energy superpower and a nuclear superpower due to its vast amounts of natural resources and large nuclear arsenal mostly leftover from the former Soviet Union.[74][75][76]

There are a myraid of obstacles to Russia gaining superpower status, such as a rapidly shrinking sphere of influence lost to the EU and China and a rapidly shrinking and aging population [77] [78] [79] [80]. A shrinking workforce leads generally to a stagnating or shrinking economy. In addition, Russia is currently only the tenth largest economy in the world by nominal GDP, and by this parameter is approximately twelve times smaller than the US economy. Russia is heavily reliant on resource extraction, especially fossil fuels, for its economy. [81].

See also

References

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  2. ^ India Rising
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  9. ^ "Superpower?, Really?". Austinchronicle. Retrieved 2007-06-27. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
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  60. ^ At 9.4%, GDP growth second fastest-ever
  61. ^ a b c http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/24/business/rupee.php
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  64. ^ [4], Rediff India, Published March 29, 2006
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  66. ^ Hindustan Times Giant step in space as capsule returns
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  69. ^ Rice: Russia's Military Moves 'a Problem' ABC News Oct. 14, 2007
  70. ^ Russia tests giant fuel-air bomb BBC News Retrieved on March 18, 2008
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