Jump to content

2019 Australian federal election: Difference between revisions

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Browse history interactively
← Previous editNext edit →
Content deleted Content added
VisualWikitext
Undid revision 734060433 by JackofOz (talk) feel free to move the words somewhere else, but please don't remove the term from the article completely...!
Line 62: Line 62:
| after_party =
| after_party =
}}
}}
The '''next Australian federal election''' will elect members of the 46th [[Parliament of Australia]]. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the 45th Parliament as elected at the [[Australian federal election, 2016|2016 federal election]].
The '''next Australian federal election''' will elect members of the 46th [[Parliament of Australia]]. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the 45th Parliament as elected at the [[Australian federal election, 2016|2016 double dissolution federal election]].


Australia has [[compulsory voting]], uses full-preference [[instant-runoff voting]] in [[Single-winner voting system|single member seats]] for the lower house, the [[Australian House of Representatives]], and an optional-preference [[single transferable vote]] in the [[proportional representation|proportionally represented]] upper house, the [[Australian Senate]]. It must be held by 2019.
Australia has [[compulsory voting]], uses full-preference [[instant-runoff voting]] in [[Single-winner voting system|single member seats]] for the lower house, the [[Australian House of Representatives]], and an optional-preference [[single transferable vote]] in the [[proportional representation|proportionally represented]] upper house, the [[Australian Senate]]. It must be held by 2019.

Revision as of 21:32, 11 August 2016

Next Australian federal election
← 2016
All 150 seats in the Australian House of Representatives
and 40 (of the 76) seats in the Australian Senate
Opinion polls
  Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten
Leader Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 14 September 2015 (2015-09-14) 13 October 2013 (2013-10-13)
Leader's seat Wentworth Maribyrnong
Last election 76 seats, 50.4% 69 seats, 49.6%
  Richard Di Natale Nick Xenophon
Leader Richard Di Natale Nick Xenophon
Party Greens Xenophon Team
Leader since 6 May 2015 (2015-05-06) 1 June 2013 (2013-06-01)
Leader's seat Senator for Victoria Senator for South Australia
Last election 1 seat 1 seat
  Bob Katter
Leader Bob Katter
Party Katter's Australian
Leader since 3 June 2011 (2011-06-03)
Leader's seat Kennedy
Last election 1 seat
Incumbent Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull
Coalition



The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 46th Parliament of Australia. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the 45th Parliament as elected at the 2016 double dissolution federal election.

Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single member seats for the lower house, the Australian House of Representatives, and an optional-preference single transferable vote in the proportionally represented upper house, the Australian Senate. It must be held by 2019.

Previous election

Main article: Australian federal election, 2016

Though federal election outcomes are traditionally called by political commentators on election night, even during the following day the outcome could not be predicted, with many close seats in doubt.[1][2][3][4][5] After a week of vote counting, still no party had won enough seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives to form a majority government.[6][7][8] Neither the incumbent Turnbull Government led by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of the Liberal/National Coalition nor the Shorten Opposition led by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of the Australian Labor Party were in a position to concede defeat or claim victory.[9][10] Many political commentators predicted a hung parliament such as occurred at the 2010 election.[8][11][12]

Turnbull repeatedly claimed prior to the election that a vote for a Labor, Green or Independent candidate was a vote for "the Labor/Green/Independent alliance",[13][14] and also refused to countenance a hung parliament.[15] However, during the uncertain week following the election, Turnbull negotiated with the crossbench and secured confidence and supply support from Bob Katter and independents Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan in the event of a hung parliament and resulting minority government.[16] During crossbench negotiations, Turnbull pledged additional staff and resources for crossbenchers, and stated "It is my commitment to work in every way possible to ensure that the crossbenchers have access to all of the information they need and all of the resources they need to be able to play the role they need in this parliament".[17] On 10 July, eight days after the election took place and following Turnbull's negotiations with the crossbench where he secured sufficient confidence and supply support, Shorten conceded defeat, acknowledging that the incumbent Coalition had enough seats to form either a minority or majority government. Turnbull claimed victory later that day.[18] In the closest federal majority result since the 1961 election, the ABC declared on 11 July that the incumbent Coalition would be able to form a bare one-seat majority government.[19]

Result

In the 150-seat House of Representatives, the one-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government was re-elected with a reduced 76 seats, a bare one-seat majority. Resulting from the national two-party swing against the government, the Labor opposition picked up a significant number of previously government-held seats − totaling 69 seats. On the crossbench the Australian Greens, the Nick Xenophon Team, Katter's Australian Party, and independents Wilkie and McGowan won a seat each. On 19 July the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced a re-count for the Coalition-held but provisionally Labor-won Division of Herbert. At the start of the Herbert re-count, Labor led by eight votes.[20][21] The AEC announced on 31 July that Labor had won Herbert by 37 votes.[22][23][24]

The final outcome in the 76-seat Senate took over four weeks to complete despite significant voting changes. Earlier in 2016, legislation changed the Senate voting system from a full-preference single transferable vote with group voting tickets to an optional-preferential single transferable vote.[25] The final Senate result was announced on 4 August: Liberal/National Coalition 30 seats (−3), Labor 26 seats (+1), Greens 9 seats (−1), One Nation 4 seats (+4) and Nick Xenophon Team 3 seats (+2). Derryn Hinch won a seat, while Jacqui Lambie, Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm and Family First's Bob Day retained their seats. The number of crossbenchers increased by two to a record 20. The Liberal/National Coalition will require at least nine additional votes to reach a Senate majority, an increase of three.[26][27][28]

Opinion polls

House of Representatives polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP GRN OTH L/NP ALP
5–8 Aug 2016 Essential[29] 40% 37% 10% 13% 48% 52%
27 Jul – 1 Aug 2016 Essential[30] 39% 37% 10% 14% 48% 52%
20–24 Jul 2016 Essential[31] 39% 37% 10% 14% 48% 52%
2 Jul 2016 election 42.0% 34.7% 10.2% 13.0% 50.4% 49.6%
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016 Newspoll[32] 42% 35% 10% 13% 50.5% 49.5%
30 Jun 2016 ReachTEL[33] 42.8% 34.6% 10.7% 12% 51% 49%
27–30 Jun 2016 Essential[34] 42.5% 34.5% 11.5% 12% 50.5% 49.5%
28–29 Jun 2016 Galaxy[35] 43% 36% 10% 11% 51% 49%
26–29 Jun 2016 Ipsos[36] 40% 33% 13% 14% 50% 50%
Preferred Prime Minister and satisfaction polling^
Date Firm Preferred Prime Minister Turnbull Shorten
Turnbull Shorten Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
5–8 Aug 2016 Essential[29] 40% 30% 38% 43% 37% 41%
2 Jul 2016 election
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016 Newspoll[32] 48% 31% 40% 47% 36% 51%
30 Jun 2016 ReachTEL[33] 52.9% 47.1%
26–29 Jun 2016 Ipsos[36] 49% 35% 49% 41% 42% 50%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

See also

References

  1. ^ "Insiders 90-minute post-election program". ABC TV. 3 July 2016.
  2. ^ "Swing against Malcolm Turnbull's Coalition leaves election on a knife-edge". ABC News. Australia. 2 July 2016.
  3. ^ "We don't have a winner, so what happens now?". ABC News. Australia. 3 July 2016.
  4. ^ "What. Just. Happened?". ABC News. Australia. 3 July 2016.
  5. ^ "How the night unfolded with no clear winner". The Guardian. Australia. 3 July 2016.
  6. ^ "Election 2016: Ballot count could take a month to finalise, AEC says". ABC News. Australia. 4 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  7. ^ Gough, Deborah (3 July 2016). "Australian federal election 2016: No results until at least ... Tuesday". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  8. ^ a b Jennifer Smith (3 July 2016). "'I can form a majority government': Malcolm Turnbull's confident he'll win the election and avoid a hung parliament as Bill Shorten praises Labor's 'magnificent campaign'... but there may not be a result until TUESDAY". Daily Mail Australia. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  9. ^ "Liberals 'cautiously optimistic' on majority". Sky News Australia. 4 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  10. ^ Fergus Hunter (4 July 2016). "Australian federal election 2016: Bill Shorten says Malcolm Turnbull 'should quit'". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  11. ^ Maher, Sid (4 July 2016). "Federal election 2016: here's the sequel, Hung Parliament II". The Australian. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  12. ^ Lenore Taylor (3 July 2016). "Turnbull and Shorten court independents with hung parliament in play". The Guardian. Australia. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  13. ^ "Malcolm Turnbull launches election campaign". The Australian. 26 June 2016.
  14. ^ "Why Malcolm Turnbull Is So Scared Of People Voting Independents". Huffington Post. 27 June 2016.
  15. ^ "Turnbull talks down protest vote". SBS News. 27 June 2016.
  16. ^ "Bill Shorten predicts second poll as Cathy McGowan offers Coaltion support". The Sydney Morning Herald. 8 July 2016.
  17. ^ "Malcolm Turnbull claims victory after Bill Shorten concedes defeat". ABC News. Australia. 10 July 2016.
  18. ^ Ross, Monique (10 July 2016). "Election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull claims victory after Bill Shorten concedes defeat". ABC News. Australia. Retrieved 10 July 2016.
  19. ^ "Election 2016: LNP retains Capricornia, gives Coalition 76-seat majority government". ABC News. Australia. 11 July 2016. Retrieved 11 July 2016.
  20. ^ "Statement from the Australian Electoral Commission: Recount in the Division of Herbert" (Press release). Australian Electoral Commission. 19 July 2016. Retrieved 25 July 2016.
  21. ^ "Federal Election 2016 Results". Australia Votes. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 3 July 2016. Retrieved 3 July 2016.
  22. ^ Labor wins seat of Herbert after recount: ABC 31 July 2016
  23. ^ Labor takes seat of Herbert, leaving Malcolm Turnbull with majority of just one seat: SMH 31 July 2016
  24. ^ Herbert - 2016 election: AEC
  25. ^ Nicole Hasham (3 July 2016). "Election 2016 results: Senate count throws up a wild mix as One Nation, Fred Nile, Liberal Democrats vie for seats". news.com.au. Retrieved 3 July 2016.
  26. ^ AEC: Twitter
  27. ^ "Federal Election 2016: Senate Results". Australia Votes. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 3 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  28. ^ "Senate photo finishes". Blogs.crikey.com.au. 2016-07-12. Retrieved 2016-07-30.
  29. ^ a b Essential: 9 August 2016
  30. ^ Essential: 2 August 2016
  31. ^ Essential: 26 July 2016
  32. ^ a b Turnbull clings to narrow lead: The Australian 2 July 2016
  33. ^ a b 1 July 2016 ReachTEL
  34. ^ 1 Jul 2016 Essential
  35. ^ "Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition - The Poll Bludger". 2016-06-30. Retrieved 2016-06-30.
  36. ^ a b "Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Dead heat on election eve as final poll points to cliffhanger". theage.com.au. 2016-06-30. Retrieved 2016-06-30.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2019_Australian_federal_election&oldid=734060658"