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[[Image:Electoral_map.png|thumb|right|300px|Presidential electoral votes by state]]
[[Image:Electoral_map.png|thumb|right|300px|Presidential electoral votes by state]]


The '''United States Presidential election of 2008''' is scheduled to be conducted on [[November 4]], [[2008]]. The election will determine the 44th [[President of the United States]]. The winner will be whichever [[candidate]] receives a majority of votes in the [[United States Electoral College]]. A majority would be at least 270 Electoral College votes.<ref> If no [[candidate]] receives a majority in the Electoral College then the [[election]] is determined by a vote of the House of Representatives.</ref> As in the [[United States presidential election, 2004|2004 Presidential election]] the [[allocation]] of electoral votes to each state will be based on the [[United States 2000 Census|2000 Census]]. The president-elect will be inaugurated on [[Tuesday]] [[January 20]], [[2009]].
The '''United States Presidential election of 2008''' is scheduled to be conducted on [[November 4]], [[2008]]. The election will determine the 44th [[President of the United States]], unless incumbent President [[George W. Bush]] is somehow removed from office before that point. The winner will be whichever [[candidate]] receives a majority of votes in the [[United States Electoral College]]. A majority would be at least 270 Electoral College votes.<ref> If no [[candidate]] receives a majority in the Electoral College then the [[election]] is determined by a vote of the House of Representatives.</ref> As in the [[United States presidential election, 2004|2004 Presidential election]] the [[allocation]] of electoral votes to each state will be based on the [[United States 2000 Census|2000 Census]]. The president-elect will be inaugurated on [[Tuesday]] [[January 20]], [[2009]].


==Incumbents==
==Incumbents==

Revision as of 22:37, 29 October 2006

Template:Future election

Presidential electoral votes by state

The United States Presidential election of 2008 is scheduled to be conducted on November 4, 2008. The election will determine the 44th President of the United States, unless incumbent President George W. Bush is somehow removed from office before that point. The winner will be whichever candidate receives a majority of votes in the United States Electoral College. A majority would be at least 270 Electoral College votes.[1] As in the 2004 Presidential election the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be based on the 2000 Census. The president-elect will be inaugurated on Tuesday January 20, 2009.

Incumbents

In 2008, President George W. Bush will be prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the U.S. Constitution. In the three most recent eight-year administrations (Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton), the incumbent Vice President has subsequently run for President (Richard Nixon lost in the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election).

However, Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President, a statement he reiterated in 2004. While appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... 'If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve,' or, not only 'No,' but 'Hell, no'. I've got my plans laid out. I'm going to serve this President for the next four years and then I'm out of here."[2] Cheney is known not to be in particularly good health, and there is some speculation that he may retire as Vice President after the 2006 midterm elections.[3] If this were to happen, his successor would likely become the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2008.

The 2008 race will be a non-incumbent or "open seat" election in which a sitting President is not a candidate. Assuming Cheney serves his full term and does not run, the 2008 race will be the first time since 1928 that neither the sitting President nor the sitting Vice President has run for President. (Note that while the 1952 general election between Dwight D. Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson also did not include a sitting President or Vice President, sitting Vice President Alben Barkley had unsuccessfully campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination, and President Harry Truman stood for the Democratic nomination in the New Hampshire primary.)

Timeline

Early fundraising and primaries

Candidates of the Constitution, Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Reform, Republican, Socialist and other parties began making their plans known as early as 2004; candidates will emerge during 2006 and 2007 because of the long lead time for fund-raising. Federal election laws require the reporting of funds raised for the primary elections, and in the past the media has anointed "front-runners" on the basis of reported fund-raising totals. For example, the media treated Howard Dean as the front-runner going into the 2004 cycle, although he was initially considered by some to be a long-shot.

Delegates to the national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, or state caucuses and state conventions. Beginning in January 2008, the first delegate-selection contests will be held in Iowa (caucus), New Hampshire (primary), Nevada and South Carolina. New Jersey will hold its primary on March 5th, 2008.

The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, including 2004, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries, because the leading candidates had collected enough committed delegates to win in the national convention. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

The South Carolina Republican Party will host a Republican Party debate May 15 2007 at the University of South Carolina in Columbia. [1]

Later events

Official primary caucus election dates

Potential candidates

While it is rare for candidates to officially declare their candidacy prior to late in the year preceding the presidential election (in this case, 2007), some potential candidates may have expressed their interest in running, and are listed below. At this early stage, many of the strongest candidates might have yet to emerge, and these lists include a few of the political figures who excite speculation among political activists, insiders, and media commentators.

Conditions for listing a candidate

As stated above, the election is currently in its early stages and candidates are not yet official.

  1. Private Official Campaign Web Site, Required Data
    1. Private web page (non-free web page)
    2. Statement of FEC Status
    3. Valid current contact information (name, address, telephone, non-free email)
    4. Date and place of birth
    5. Intent of ballot placement or write-in status.
    6. Current list of Registration for write-in status

FEC - FEC Registered Candidate.
FEC-Other - FEC Registered Candidate, other election.
Non-FEC - Non-FEC Registered Candidate

Democratic Party

Main article: Potential Democratic candidates in the 2008 United States presidential election

Announced candidates for the Democratic Party:

Candidates who have formed exploratory committees or have expressed serious interest

Republican Party

Main article: Potential Republican candidates in the 2008 United States presidential election

Announced candidates for the Republican Party:

Candidates who have formed exploratory committees or have expressed serious interest:

Third parties

Main article: Potential third party candidates in the 2008 United States presidential election

Constitution Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Constitution Party:

Green Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Green Party:

Libertarian Party

Announced candidates for the Libertarian Party:

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy:

Prohibition Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Prohibition Party:

Reform Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Reform Party: None yet.

Socialist Party USA

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Socialist Party USA: None yet.

Independents

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

Opinion polling

Opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election has offered various projections for who the top contenders may be.

Possible electoral college changes

In 2006, the DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act was introduced in the U.S. House. If enacted, it would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by 1. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia. But the bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to Utah (at-large until the next census), and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1, but only until the next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at 3, as required by the 23rd amendment. The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to 539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win.

Also, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a proposed agreement between states in the United States dealing with their allocation of electoral votes. This interstate compact would effectively shift the method of election of the President of the United States to a national popular vote system. By the terms of the compact, states agree to give all of their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, regardless of the balance of votes in their own states. The compact would only go into effect once it was joined by states representing a majority of the electoral college.

References

  1. ^ If no candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College then the election is determined by a vote of the House of Representatives.
  2. ^ Transcript: Vice President Cheney on 'FOX News Sunday'. Fox News Sunday. February 7, 2005. Retrieved October 11, 2006
  3. ^ Cheney seen retiring after midterm elections

External links

Navigation

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