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August 14

Did any real fighting shields look like US highway shields?

Not the Interstates, the previous system. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 15:40, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

To facilitate responses from individuals knowledgeable about historical arms and armour but unfamiliar with US road furniture, could you link to a picture of a "US highway shield"? {The poster formerly known as 87.81.230.195} 2.122.177.122 (talk) 15:48, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Done (see right). Alansplodge (talk) 15:53, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

That's an interstate shield. A U.S. Highway shield looks like the one on the below: --Jayron 32 15:58, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

U.S._Route_shield says: “on April 20, 1925, (Bureau of Public Roads) board member Lou A. Boulay of Ohio was credited with suggesting the use of a shield, inspired by that on the Great Seal of the United States”. That heraldic shield was in turn based on real shields, yes, see this discussed in Escutcheon_(heraldry) and Heater shield. 70.67.193.176 (talk) 16:06, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Inspired by but doesn't particularly look like the Great Seal or the heater shields in the article or the clothes irons that heater shields are anachronistically named for (unless you were talking about the Interstate shield who's photo was posted first which does resemble a heater shield) Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 17:10, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

It looks more like the original proposal, shown below. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?}

carrots→ 18:35, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Huh, I didn't know the draft looked like that. And the middle is symbols of Irish, French, Germans, Englishmen and so on right? Yep, file page says so. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 19:04, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

The wavy top edge of the route shield (left) also bears some similarity to that of the 1825 design of the Treaty Seal (right), but the similarity of the latter with the Interstate shield is far more striking. Another question to consider: have any US highway shields been used as real fighting shields? --Lambiam 18:44, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

There's a way to be sure it's yes. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 19:01, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

When and where? Sabres or swords? Shall we let the seconds work out the details? --Lambiam 11:04, 15 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

A dime for each Israeli killed by antisemites, welded into a rod. Wait that'd be almost a hundred feet long, never mind then. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 16:53, 15 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

The Great Seal of the United States has throughout history used a wide variety of escutcheon shapes; this is in line with the way heraldry works. The blazon only lists standard symbols and tinctures and does not indicate a particular expression of those things; thus there is often significant variation in how a particular specific example of a heraldic element will be represented, and there is no one "correct" way. As you can see here the most common shape is "french style" (see the above linked escutcheon article) you also see the "heater" style (two engrailed top) that you see in Interstate highway shields, and other examples that more closely resemble the U.S. Highway Shield, such as the original 1782 sketch which shows a similar (but not identical) shape to that of the U.S. Highway shield. I can't find any, right now, identical to the current U.S. Highway Shield design, but that doesn't mean that 1) the designer wasn't working from a version of the U.S. Seal that had that specific shape or 2) that they used a similar, but not identical shape and made some changes to it. Furthermore, you can see that exact shape in other heraldic symbols, such as the Coat of arms and flag of New Jersey, and many others at Historical armorial of U.S. states from 1876 show similar shield shapes, it may have been in style for the time as a LOT of arms from the late 19th and early 20th century showed that shape. --Jayron 32 18:33, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Good points. I wonder if the curves were originally to redirect swords in diverse ways or something. Since your actions can only be reacted to (if not telegraphed) but you can know them many centiseconds in advance maybe you could hope he tries to hack around the shield and try to make it glance off in a funky direction with proper wrist/elbow etc. rotation and attack while he's occupied with that. But I have no martial arts experience so what do I know. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 20:49, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Some tournament shields were ribbed for strength, giving an engrailed surface, and my unfounded guess is that the engrailed top edge seen here is a relic of portrayals of such shields. —Tamfang (talk) 00:12, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Jousting shields often had a notch for the lance, though these were asymmetrical. See a 15th-century example here [1]. 70.67.193.176 (talk) 15:21, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

In illustration, i think, the lance-notch more often cuts in from the side only, rather than from the top. [2] —Tamfang (talk) 00:36, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Chess clock increments

I believe most proper chess tournaments use the increment timing method, which our own article on Chess clock explains this way:

"[a] specified amount of time is added to the players main time each move, unless the player's main time ran out before they completed their move. For example, if the time control is G/90;inc30 (ninety minutes of main time per player with a thirty-second increment each move), each player gets an additional thirty seconds added to their main time for each move, unless the player's main time ran out first."

I understand how it is applied but I can't make my head understand the practicalities. Neither player can ever have played more than one move more than the other, so don't both players have more or less the same amount of increment time? If one player plays tends to play faster, doesn't the method benefit the slower player?

Hayttom (talk) 16:56, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Average games are ~40 moves above a certain very low skill level, anyone who plays competitively will have games multiple times longer every so often though so increment is better. Speed chess is shitty chess (he who analyzes blitz is stupid - famous quote) and a single good-looking rushed move can lose a won game, for standard time controls brutal clock warfare isn't the point. The increment isn't as long as the players would like though to keep games under about 6 or 7 hours, as some people get exhausted from playing marathons dropping their quality of play (especially if they play often like the Karpov world championship which had many, many, many games from the 10 wins win by 2 or something format and a young attacky Kasparov tried to outexhaust an old defensive genius in a game that perfect players would draw) Long games are also bad for increasing fanbase and thus prize money and sometimes start times would make some players sleep later than they'd like if games could last 8 hours. They'll never just adjourn every 5 or 6 hours till done again cause smartphones can help anyone cheat now, computers even more. In the past world championships were adjourned and players would analyze for ages with teams, even after they slept (during the Cold War at least, don't know about other times), sometimes to the point that less analysis would've helped. This was allowed. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 17:29, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Personally 20/0 or 15/15 is enough for me and 10/0 or 7.5/7.5 is rushed but I'm just an amateur, this would be considered rapid (not the same thing as blitz) to a professional. And yes increment does benefit the slower player more than the rough equivalent in no increment which is about how much time a 60 move increment game would get. There are ample opportunities for fast strong players to flex and even a world championship for 5/3 or 5/5 that Magnus probably crushes lol. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 20:11, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

You and your opponent get the same amount of total thinking time (i.e. both can think through the whole duration of the game) but the time is much more useful when it's your move and you know the board position, than when it's your opponent's move and you don't know what move they will make. Increment is good because it gets rid of the ridiculous time scrambles that we used to see because the player wasn't that great at clock management (that is a skill in its own right) and/or underestimated how many moves the game would take if it's a game without adjournments. Adjournments are basically history now. In the old days, in principle you were supposed to do any adjournment analysis by yourself, but nobody actually did that. At the high levels you would typically bring a second (basically an assistant who is also a strong player) to help you prepare and generally look after you. In case of an adjournment, you'd spend a lot of time analyzing with the second and (in a team event) possibly other players on your team, before resuming the game. I don't know how that is really different from analyzing with computers, but in any case, as SMW says, adjournments went away at around the time computer analysis became widespread. 2602:24A:DE47:BB20:50DE:F402:42A6:A17D (talk) 08:42, 15 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Do Cadet Nurses qualify?

I saw these four videos [3], [4], [5] and [6] on YouTube. They're about a young woman and her quest to honor the women who served on the American home front during WWII. Here's some more information [7] about the memorial. Do women who served in the Cadet Nurse Corps qualify?142.255.72.126 (talk) 23:41, 14 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Qualify for what? It’s unclear what you are asking. Blueboar (talk) 12:50, 15 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I assume OP is asking whether Cadet Nurses are included in this foundation's proposal to create a memorial. The correct response is that OP needs to contact that foundation to start a dialog with them. 199.66.69.67 (talk) 16:58, 15 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

If the question is, "did the women who served in the Cadet Nurse Corps contribute to keeping the home front running in support of the World War II effort?", the answer is undoubtedly yes. See the last sentence of the intro section of our Cadet Nurse Corps: "The American Hospital Association credited the cadet student nurses with helping to prevent the collapse of civilian nursing in the U.S. during the war." If the question is, "is the foundation planning to acknowledge the contribution of the Cadet Nurse Corps explicitly?", the best way to find out is indeed to contact them. --Lambiam 21:04, 15 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Their website currently includes the story of one cadet nurse [8] although I imagine they accept most submissions which seem genuine and fulfill the basics of what the memorial is about (US women working in jobs outside home during WW2) [9] Nil Einne (talk) 09:33, 16 August 2020 (UTC) 16:54, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I have to jump back in here. My apologies if this is late. But is there a national memorial to the Cadet Nurse Corps?142.255.72.126 (talk) 00:39, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

This YouTube video discusses plans for such a memorial, and this news item reports that such a memorial was dedicated in La Crosse, Wisconsin, in 2018. This page mentions the Women's Memorial at Arlington National Cemetery, stating that U.S. Cadet Nurses may register at the Women's Memorial, without mentioning the La Crosse memorial. --Lambiam 20:50, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Women on the Home Front Medal 1941-1945

While researching the above, I came across the US Women on the Home Front Medal 1941-1945. On the reverse is the inscription: "A Grateful Nation Remembers / 1941-1945 / World War II / 1991-1995". Anyone know anything about this? Alansplodge (talk) 14:03, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

The hits from casually googling "WW2 commemorations 1941" suggests that some of the USA's 50th-anniversary commemorations explicitly mirrored the 1941-45 period that the USA was involved, something perhaps not immediately obvious to we Brits whose country became embroiled in 1939. {The poster formerly known as 87.81.230.195} 2.122.61.94 (talk) 17:23, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

August 16

Wearing an elephant scalp

There are a bunch of ancient coins showing rulers with an elephant scalp. Obviously an elephant head is much larger than the human one, yet the coins show it fitting well on the head. Same goes for bear and lion scalps of signifers which also seem too large to fit the head nicely. Why is that? Perhaps some shrinkage after artificially drying the scalp? 212.180.235.46 (talk) 10:26, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Do you think these guys were literally wearing shrunken elephant heads? ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 12:35, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

"Elephant scalp" is the correct description of this headdress: see The J. Paul Getty Museum Journal: Volume 14, 1986 (p. 36), Roman Imperial Coinage II.3: From AD 117 to AD 138 - Hadrian (p. 194) and Every Inch a King: Comparative Studies on Kings and Kingship in the Ancient and Medieval Worlds (p. 111). The first coins with this imagery were issued by Ptolemy I Soter in the late 3rd or early 4th century BC, showing Alexander the Great wearing one, probably to symbolise his conquest of India. [10]

The Getty source linked above suggests that it was probably a helmet made to look like an elephant's head. Until somebody digs-up an actual example, this can only be conjecture. Alansplodge (talk) 13:31, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Actually, this looks like a teapot crafted by an early Viking mad hatter. --Cookatoo.ergo.ZooM (talk) 16:10, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Well, Sir Billy Connolly looks like a Viking and almost certainly has Viking DNA, and he notably wrote: "Never trust a man who, when he's alone in a room with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on" (Thoughts That Sustain Me). That's all the imprimatur anybody needs. -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 22:36, 16 August 2020 (UTC) [reply]

Even if they shrunk the elephant head, the tusks wouldn’t just shrink. It’d have to be a young elephant, but I suspect e d almostven their heads would be too large. It was probably hammered metal. 199.66.69.67 (talk) 17:33, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

It need not have been a real object at all (what would have been the occasion to wear something like this?), but may just have been a symbolic and mythologising representation on coins and in other formats. It is certainly reminiscent of representations of Heracles wearing the lion scalp (the coins shown here pre-date Alexander). --Wrongfilter (talk) 17:52, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I've seen plenty of Green Bay Packers fans wearing giant wedges of cheese on their heads, yet they are not actually made of cheese. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 21:42, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Really? I mean, do you seriously think you just contributed in any meaningful way to answering the question? --Wrongfilter (talk) 22:06, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Do you seriously think the figures on those coins were wearing real animal scalps? ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 02:25, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

In my contribution above I stated clearly what I think. --Wrongfilter (talk) 07:22, 17 August 2020 (UTC) [reply]

Yes, and the wearing of odd things on the head is a long-standing practice - both ancient on nowadays. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 13:43, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

If you have nothing to say, then don't say it here. --Lambiam 19:32, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

This is just ridiculous. --Wrongfilter (talk) 14:04, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Well, I had thought I was reinforcing your point and informing the OP. I didn't expect a kind of Spanish Inquisition. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 19:56, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!--Khajidha (talk) 11:13, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Anyhow, Roman Standard Bearers are recorded and depicted as having worn real lion or bear skins, with the head-part on top of their helmets. [11] However, wearing an actual elephant's head seems infinitely improbable. Alansplodge (talk) 14:16, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Who was R. SAUERWALD?

R. SAUERWALD . Improvements in electric batteries . GB patent 10904 , 1888. ^[1]. He made galvanometer in Berlin^[2].

Does anyone know him? TIA. Horus1927 19:08, 16 August 2020 (UTC) — Preceding unsigned comment added by Horus1927 (talk • contribs)

References

A quick search suggests that the "Sauerwald galvanometer" mentioned in your second source was manufactured by the firm of F. Sauerwald and not the R. Sauerwald to whom that patent issued. 199.66.69.67 (talk) 20:27, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

And if you are interested in F. Sauerwald, I believe you may find an article celebrating his 70th birthday giving a short biography (in German) at doi:10.1002/zfch.19640040602. 199.66.69.67 (talk) 20:36, 16 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

August 17

State leaders continuously reelected in fair elections

What state/country leaders have been reelected multiple times in fair elections owing to consistent genuine popular support? By "multiple" let's say three or more times (except FDR). Thanks. 212.180.235.46 (talk) 12:41, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

In the U.S., no President has served more than 2 terms except FDR. Records of heads of state would be a good place perhaps to start looking for longest serving heads of state who survived multiple elections. --Jayron 32 12:50, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Angela Merkel (though of course most voters in German federal elections did not vote for her individually). AnonMoos (talk) 12:52, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Well, and that's the thing right? In many parliamentary systems, the functional political leader of the country (Prime Minister, Premier, Chancellor, etc.) is not directly elected to that post; they are a member of the national parliament who is elevated to the role in a second election nominally by the parliament itself, but functionally by the majority party or coalition in that body. In the UK, for example, it is common enough for a Prime Minister to get their post completely separate from a general election; Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Gordon Brown, and John Major (four of the last six PMs) all became PM after the preceding PM resigned, and not after a general election. In terms of "winning" three consecutive general elections in the UK, the last to do so was Margaret Thatcher, and before her only Robert Jenkinson, 2nd Earl of Liverpool and Robert Walpole served as PM through more elections, being 4 each. William Pitt the Younger also served through 3 elections. --Jayron 32 13:05, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

At least in the modern era in the UK it's not "completely separate from a general election." If there is a party leadership contest, this is typically done before a general election, so that the electorate gets to vote for a party representative, knowing who will become PM if that party wins. Mechanisms for choosing the leader vary between parties. Whether that's really true "democracy" is another question. Occasionally, of course, things don't happen in that order. Martinevans123 (talk) 13:11, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

The process is completely separate, as can be seen for 2 reasons. 1 - there are party leadership contests for parties not currently in Government, so in this case there would not be an election except by chance. 1 - there have been many leadershop changes of the party currently governing with no general election soon after. Examples include Alec Douglas-Hume, Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, Teresa May and even Boris, who called an election about 5 months after being elected leader.--Phil Holmes (talk) 14:02, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

As I noted already, four of the last six PMs became PM completely outside of a general election. Including the last two. So yes, going back as far as the 1990s, most of the modern Prime Ministers became Prime Minister initially through an internal party process, and not due to a general election. There were later general elections during their terms, but they still did not assume the office because their party won an immediately preceding general election. --Jayron 32 14:57, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I would be interested to see the proportions, across all parties, for the last 100 years. I have not made the effort to do the sums. Perhaps it's just the way I have perceived party leader elections during my lifetime. Party Conferences are another factor, I guess. Martinevans123 (talk) 17:35, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

That's easy enough to reconstruct. Going back to 1920, the prime minister and how they got the post the first time are: 1) David Lloyd George (Resignation of previous PM, no intervening election) 2) Bonar Law (election) 3) Stanley Baldwin (resignation) 4) Ramsay Macdonald (election) 5) Stanley Baldwin (election) 6) Ramsay Macdonald (election) 7) Stanley Baldwin (election) 8) Neville Chamberlain (resignation) 9) Winston Churchill (resignation) 10) Clement Atlee (election) 11) Winston Churchill (election) 12) Anthony Eden (election) 13) Harold Macmillian (resignation) 14) Alec Douglas-Home (resignation) 15) Harold Wilson (election) 16) Edward Heath (election) 17) Harold Wilson (election) 18) James Callaghan (resignation) 19) Margaret Thatcher (election) 20) John Major (resignation) 21) Tony Blair (election) 22) Gordon Brown (resignation) 23) David Cameron (election) 24) Theresa May (resignation) 25) Boris Johnson (resignation). So there you go, 25 distinct Prime Ministerial terms, 12 of which began with the resignation of the prior office holder, and 13 of which began after a general election. That's as close to 50/50 as you can get with an odd number. --Jayron 32 17:50, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Many thanks Jayron, for spelling it out. None seems quite as bizarre and unfair as the current situation. But the electorate have spoken. Even if they didn't quite know what they were saying... Martinevans123 (talk) 20:32, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

A case of "be careful what you ask for, you might just get it?" --Jayron 32 15:46, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

And then some. Be Very Careful What You Vote For. Martinevans123 (talk) 15:51, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

In which states is are ministers competitively elected by the parliament? In Westminster, as I misunderstand, the head of state appoints someone to form a cabinet, and that person becomes prime minister upon vote of confidence by the parliament. —Tamfang (talk) 01:19, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Category:Lists of state governors of the United States would be a place to start researching U.S. state governors in case you wanted that. Many states have term limits as well, limiting how many consecutive terms a governor may serve. --Jayron 32 13:34, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Urho Kekkonen was President of Finland who served four consecutive terns between 1956 and 1982. Note that the Constitution of Finland was reformed starting at the end of Kekkonen's last term, reducing the power of the presidency, introducing a two-term limit and combining a popular vote with the electoral college system which had kept Kekkonen in power. He wasn't always terribly popular, but in the Cold War, Finland lived under the threatening shadow of the USSR and he was believed to be useful in keeping Moscow sweet, while other candidates were thought likely to rock the boat. "And always keep ahold of nurse / For fear of finding something worse". Alansplodge (talk) 14:01, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Purely for my own amusement, a look at List of prime ministers of Italy shows that there were 29 premiers of that country during Kekkonen's tenure :-) Alansplodge (talk) 14:30, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

"Consistent genuine popular support" is a tough thing to gauge. Did Fidel Castro have consistent genuine popular support? Did William Lyon Mackenzie King? --jpgordon^{𝄢𝄆 𝄐𝄇} 17:19, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Mackenzie King's Liberal Party was defeated rather badly in the 1930 election. They did regain control in 1935 and for the next three elections, but I wouldn't call their support "consistent". He served during World War II, and few of the major world democracies changed leadership during the war itself once things got going. It probably was a special case, and King's fortunes waxed and waned as any does. --Jayron 32 17:37, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Lee Kuan Yew may be a candidate, with 8 consecutive election wins and 31 continuous years as Prime Minister of Singapore (after which he stepped down, though he continued in lesser ministerial offices for a further 25 years). {The poster formerly known as 87.81.230.195} 2.123.25.153 (talk) 19:27, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

In Australia, the winner by a long way is Sir Thomas Playford IV, who was Premier of South Australia for over 26 years continuously (1938-1965) and led his party to 8 election victories on the trot, failing on the 9th. -- Jack of Oz ^{[pleasantries]} 22:51, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Of course, if you really want to look for politicians popular enough to be elected many times, you want to consider lower levels of government. Hazel McCallion in Mississauga comes to mind, and Édouard Herriot in Lyon, France. (Hmm, his infobox needs fixing.) But they were excluded by the terms of the question, so I don't need to have posted this. --174.89.49.204 (talk) 00:22, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

In terms of U.S. governors, Terry Branstad has the longest service, but did his in two stints, as did most of the people on the 50 longest serving governors in U.S. history. The longest consecutive streak with no breaks seems to belong to Arthur Fenner of Rhode Island and Albert Ritchie of Maryland, each with 15+ years of service in a row. Branstad actually beats that with a 16 year run in his first stint, followed by a 6 year run later on. --Jayron 32 15:54, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

What is considered best by mainstream economists deflation (NOT hyperdeflation) or Hyperinflation?

What is considered best by mainstream economists deflation (NOT hyperdeflation) or Hyperinflation? 2804:7F2:594:4C46:1A9:6F7A:B358:2544 (talk) 16:05, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Neither are desirable, as both cause significant economic disruption. Deflation encourages hoarding and discourages consumer spending, while hyperinflation devalues the currency itself. It's kind of like asking whether you want to die by firing squad or guillotine - you're still gonna be dead either way. NorthBySouthBaranof (talk) 16:08, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah basically this. Both are bad. Deflation might be "less bad" in the short term but they're both going to wreck your economy. I suppose if the question is "which is easier to correct" a better answer might be forthcoming, though it probably depends on the degree of deflation versus the degree of hyperinflation, how you define those terms, and the economic controls available to the relevant economy. 199.66.69.67 (talk) 16:14, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I’m going to favor deflation, for the simple reason that it can be just a fraction of a percent drop in prices, whereas hyperinflation is — by definition —- very large movements. Now, if you want to compare “equal” price movements, then inflation is the one we know how to beat into submission. DOR (HK) (talk) 18:29, 17 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Deflation is considered terrible because it makes everyone stop spending money. Economic policymakers tend to aim for around 2% annual inflation from what I hear. 2602:24A:DE47:BB20:50DE:F402:42A6:A17D (talk) 14:57, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Consider this: after the Lost Decade (Japan), which is generally considered the worst and longest case of deflation in the past 100 years, Japan was basically fine -- a wealthy society with a good democracy and a stable society. But basically every country that has faced hyperinflation in the past 100 years, society has been wrecked. --M @r ē ino 16:26, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Good, solid point. It helps (a lot) if your deflating economy also has a contracting labor force.DOR (HK) (talk) 01:37, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

August 18

Humans are bad at risk

Imagine that there is a pandemic going on, and I do something that I know puts me at some risk for getting infected (e.g., attend a large gathering). But the risk is small, and I don't get sick - this time. If we take the same risk several times, and we don't get harmed, then pretty soon, then I realistically expect that we will start thinking that the actual risk has declined. But the risk hasn't changed. The fact that someone doesn't experience a 1:100 outcome in 10 exposures doesn't prove that it's not a 1:100 risk.

Or, we all wear masks to the store, and nobody gets sick, so we start thinking that masks are unnecessary because nobody's getting sick. We see this in vaccines, too: Almost nobody gets measles, so there's no need for a measles vaccine anymore, right?

There must be a name for this phenomenon. What's the name, and what's the best Wikipedia article about this? (Please ping me.) WhatamIdoing (talk) 00:15, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

@WhatamIdoing: Faulty generalization? BirdValiant (talk) 00:25, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Nicely connected -- but if anything the Gambler's fallacy is the opposite! The gambler's fallacy says that, over time, the probability of the rare event (i.e., winning a jackpot) is supposed to increase. But here we're talking about the (equally invalid) notion that since the improbable thing still hasn't happened, it must be getting even less probable. —Steve Summit (talk) 15:44, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Also relevant and roughly opposite is the Ecological fallacy. Just because the average chance of contracting the disease for a particular type of behavior is 1/100, doesn't mean that the chance is 1/100 for a particular individual engaging in that behavior. And it is often reasonable to change one's opinion based on Empirical evidence, though it can be tricky to determine how much empirical evidence is needed.

The black swan theory purports to explain, among other things, the psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. These same cognitive biases are also at work for less exceptional things. As the optimist said who fell off a skyscraper, as he zoomed past the tenth floor, "so far so good". Some relevant external links: [12]; [13]; [14]. --Lambiam 08:10, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

A classic essay on the phenomenon -- although I don't believe it gives it a name -- is this one, by Richard Feynman.

Another related phenomenon is Risk compensation. —Steve Summit (talk) 12:00, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

The "See also" links at Risk compensation are all suggestive, but none of them exactly describe the phenomenon being asked about. —Steve Summit (talk) 13:40, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

It could be called "immortality delusion", for which young people are especially notorious. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 13:21, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

For a hard-to-believe (is this for real?) risk assessment fail, check this out. --Lambiam 13:43, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I seem to remember that Tversky and Kahneman touched on risk assessment in their work on heuristics in decision-making back in the 1970s. See Heuristics in judgment and decision-making. There's also a big research base on risk-taking in driving e.g. see Risk compensation#Road transport and Jonah (1986). Martinevans123 (talk) 13:55, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Baseball Bugs, the closest Wikipedia article to that idea that I could find is Young invincibles. There probably ought to be one. WhatamIdoing (talk) 17:46, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Optimism bias is involved, but also in your examples, the birthday paradox. If the likelihood of an infection between transmitted between two people coming into contact is p, then between N people in a room (all coming into contact with each other), it's approx. p·N²/2 and people don't recognize that quadratic growth. Thus the superspreader events in bars, churches, and (now) schools. 2602:24A:DE47:BB20:50DE:F402:42A6:A17D (talk) 15:20, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, the idea that "the sooner everyone gets it the better". Early on this was a policy option discussed by Boris Johnson, I think. Just one facet of the UK government's "clear messaging" strategy? Akin to the notion of the old-fashioned pox party which still continues, it seems. Martinevans123 (talk) 17:37, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, except they can't keep you alive until you recover if there's no hospital bed, doctor, or equipment and medicine necessary to do so. Whether or not the same number of people will end up getting it in the end is irrelevant if more people die that could have survived if there was room at the hospital for them. --Jayron 32 17:47, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I think the notion was more one "acceptable level of losses" i.e. let all the old and at risk die off quickly. Sorry for the WP:FORUM. Martinevans123 (talk) 19:19, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

To be fair, Martinevans123 the "herd immunity" proposal seems to have been advanced by Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government Chief Scientific Adviser and his chums. [15] It seems a bit harsh to blame Boris for acting on the advice of his adviser. Alansplodge (talk) 14:26, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

So much for the "pro-life" stuff. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 22:17, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I believe thé term you"re looking for is normalization of deviance 2A01:E34:EF5E:4640:4FB:4322:1642:1DC9 (talk) 17:20, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Ah yes, creeping normality, boiling frog, etc. --Jayron 32 17:26, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

It would also be really, really helpful if we knew for certain that no one will get this damn virus more than once. But, we don’t. Not even close. Hence, “herd immunity” this year is more of a “Gee, sorry Grandma.” DOR (HK) (talk) 01:42, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Also, the virus may mutate and come back with a vengeance, as happened in the 1918 flu pandemic, which deserves to be called the "U.S. Army flu". --Lambiam 10:25, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner! I'm not finding the name in recent review articles about COVID-19, but it is discussed in sources such as [16]. Thank you all, and please keep posting interesting links. WhatamIdoing (talk) 18:07, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Why wasn't outsourcing a thing before the late 20th century?

Why wasn't outsourcing (as in, sending jobs to other, cheaper countries to save money/costs) a thing before the late 20th century? Companies over the last several decades have become huge fans of outsourcing jobs--especially to the developing world--but I haven't heard of companies actually engaging in this practice much before the late 20th century even though it might have, for instance, made economic sense for early 20th century British or German industrialists to move some of their factories and jobs to cheaper places such as Russia, Italy, Austria-Hungary, the Balkans, and/or the Ottoman Empire. So, why didn't this happen? Futurist110 (talk) 21:34, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Of course outsourcing happened. It was just called colonialism and most of the exported jobs were agricultural rather than industrial since the destination nations often lacked the educational infrastructure to provide industrial laborers or skilled workers. As to getting work done in Russia instead of Britain, I kind of suspect that any cost savings would've been minimal and consumed by the cost of postage/telegrams, as well as fraud, waste, and abuse. 199.66.69.67 (talk) 22:05, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Logistics... until the mid 20th century, most of the world's steal was produced in the UK, US and Germany, and it took a LOT of steal to build a factory. Why incur the costs of shipping the steal needed to build a factory all the way to India or Russia when you could simply build the factory at home, close to the iron works? Besides, in an era when unions were just getting started, the difference in labor costs wasn't all THAT much. Blueboar (talk) 22:29, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Although thievery was (and remains) common, I believe you meant "steel". 2606:A000:1126:28D:4010:D10A:69ED:7785 (talk) 22:36, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

One of the more obvious and less popular ourtsourcings here in Australia has been call centres. The clear reason this couldn't happen earlier was an absence of suitable telecommunications. HiLo48 (talk) 23:46, 18 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Futurist110 -- in a sense there was. The U.S. textile industry originated in New England, but most mills were transferred to southern U.S. states starting in the late 19th century, and then were transferred to 3rd-world countries beginning in the 1960s. Of course, the full development of outsourcing depended on containerized shipping, GATT and other trade agreements, and later on the Internet... AnonMoos (talk) 01:01, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

One word: Containerization! oh, and transportation time/costs in general, too. DOR (HK) (talk) 01:46, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Of course outsourcing was a thing before the twentieth century, it just wasn't known by that name. Lots of pre-modern economic theories had outsourcing as a key component. Mercantilism is built upon the outsourcing of certain tasks (resource extraction and raw material production) to colonial territories and the protection of other tasks (final product manufacture) to the home country. Large parts of Adam Smith's writing deal with outsourcing even though he doesn't use the word he clearly understands the concepts and deals with it extensively in his seminal work The Wealth of Nations. Especially in Book Four, where he goes in depth on protectionism and the attempts by nations to prevent outsourcing of certain industries. And remember, he wrote that in the 18th century. --Jayron 32 14:48, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

For countries with empires, there was a vested interest in keeping manufacturing at home and then using overseas territories as captive markets. Alansplodge (talk) 16:18, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, but where local labor was more expensive, resource extraction was often outsourced as it was less expensive to obtain the raw materials from outside the home nation, and import those. Remember the word "outsourcing" is a term d'art for anti-globalists and protectionists that just means "imports"; every item or product or resource that was not made inside your countries borders means some one else outside your country's borders was paid for it. It's a fun politically charged word to use when someone is feeling particularly xenophobic, but it just means "imports". Goods and services can only be produced in two places: inside one's own borders or outside them. They're either domestic goods and services or imported goods and services. All imported goods and services have "outsourced" labour, for logical reasons. --Jayron 32 16:23, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed, but our outsourcing article has a rather narrower definition. Alansplodge (talk) 16:49, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

That's fair. Outsourcing is really more about importing of services rather than goods, so it does have some important distinctions in a service-based economy, and I do agree that in the modern economy, the concept of "outsourcing" services is much more prevalent, but also not entirely unheard of as a concept even in earlier centuries. Banking, for example, was often outsourced, major European banks were often based in Florence (Medici Bank), Augsburg (Fugger family and Welser family), or the Netherlands (Amsterdam Wisselbank, Clifford family). --Jayron 32 17:27, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

"It's a fun politically charged word to use when someone is feeling particularly xenophobic, but it just means "imports"." That seems needlessly accusatory. I'm sure I've seen lots of companies describe what they are doing as outsourcing, lots of outsourcing doesn't involve offshoring, and if someone was feeling "particularly xenophobic", I would think there are far more pejorative terms they could use. Iapetus (talk) 09:23, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

August 19

Request for info on Polish noms-de-guerre

Hi! I'm trying to find information on the noms-de-guerre used by the Polish resistance during WW2.

In particular, I want to know if there were any conventions about what words and names could be used, or was it just a case of finding a name that represented something you like? Or were names given by someone else (and if so, who)?

Does anyone know where I could find any info on this? Thank you in advance.

PrincessPersnickety (talk) 14:50, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Tadeusz Komorowski apparently chose his own name, Bór ("forest"), see Congressional Record: Proceedings and Debates (p. 4562) and Who's Who in Twentieth Century Warfare (p. 32). Didn't find much else I'm afraid. Alansplodge (talk) 15:59, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Hi Alansplodge, thank you for taking the time to answer. I really appreciate it. PrincessPersnickety (talk) 17:09, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

The article Home Army mentions the above "Forest" for Tadeusz Bór-Komorowski and also "Bear" for Leopold Okulicki. The relevant references may give more information. There may be a Polish reference desk where you can post a query (but the link under languages goes to a WP page which seems dormant since 2008). --Cookatoo.ergo.ZooM (talk) 14:43, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Janina Forbertówna: "Jasia";^[17] Bolesław Kowalski: "Ryszard".^[18] Very likely these books contain more examples, but I can only see snippets. --Lambiam 15:14, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Aleksander Tarnawski: Upłaz.^[19] Wanda Krahelska-Filipowicz: Alinka or Alicja. Category:Polish resistance members of World War II and its subcategories may lead to more wartime codenames; that way the very first one I tried gave me Jadwiga Apostoł: Barbara Spytkowska. --Lambiam 15:27, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you for your help Lambiam and Cookatoo.ergo.ZooM :) PrincessPersnickety (talk) 16:31, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

The flag on "flag of Belarus" is wrong.

Someone changed it to the white and red flag. 42.113.60.40 (talk) 15:23, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

It looks like someone fixed the error 6 minutes after someone else had made it. --Jayron 32 15:43, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

But you might have to change it back again if Alexander Lukashenko gets kicked out. Bets anyone? Alansplodge (talk) 15:50, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

"We don't answer requests for opinions, predictions or debate." From the instructions at the top of the page. --Jayron 32 16:26, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Quite right. Pretend it was a rhetorical question (my money is on under 48 hours). Alansplodge (talk) 16:34, 19 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Courtesy link: Alexander Lukashenko --2606:A000:1126:28D:F936:DCD9:CC6E:A4F9 (talk) 01:39, 20 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

August 21

[1] ttps://books.google.com/books?id=TRlbAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA452&dq=R.+sauerwald,+london&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjjiOzWtKDrAhXBYysKHSaLDSAQuwUwAHoECAMQBg#v=onepage&q=R. sauerwald%2C london&f=false

[2] ttps://books.google.com.bd/books?id=GT48AQAAMAAJ&pg=PA76&dq=Sauerwald+galvanometer&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjzxubTvaDrAhWVwjgGHawaBLoQ6AEwAXoECAMQAg#v=onepage&q=Sauerwald%20galvanometer&f=false

[1]

[2]

@@ Line 170: / Line 170: @@
 :: Nicely connected -- but if anything the [[Gambler's fallacy]] is the opposite!  The gambler's fallacy says that, over time, the probability of the rare event (i.e., winning a jackpot) is supposed to ''increase''.  But here we're talking about the (equally invalid) notion that since the improbable thing still hasn't happened, it must be getting even less probable. —[[User:scs|Steve Summit]] ([[User talk:scs|talk]]) 15:44, 18 August 2020 (UTC)
+:::Also relevant and roughly opposite is the [[Ecological fallacy]].  Just because the average chance of contracting the disease for a particular type of behavior is 1/100, doesn't mean that the chance is 1/100 for a particular individual engaging in that behavior.  And it is often reasonable to change one's opinion based on [[Empirical evidence]], though it can be tricky to determine how much empirical evidence is needed.
 :The [[black swan theory]] purports to explain, among other things, the [[psychological biases]] that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. These same cognitive biases are also at work for less exceptional things. As the optimist said who fell off a skyscraper, as he zoomed past the tenth floor, "[[:File:En-au-so far so good.ogg|so far so good]]". Some relevant external links: [https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cognitive-biases-that-affect-decisions-2015-8]; [https://www.corporatecomplianceinsights.com/risk-assessments-cognitive-bias/]; [https://riskacademy.blog/if-cognitive-biases-in-decision-making-are-a-given-how-do-risk-managers-overcome-them/]. &nbsp;--[[User talk:Lambiam|Lambiam]] 08:10, 18 August 2020 (UTC)