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2022–2023 Pentagon document leaks

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In April 2023, two sets of edited, classified documents of the United States relating to the Russo-Ukrainian War were leaked on Twitter, Discord, Telegram, and 4chan. The leaks also included details about North Korea, China, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. The Pentagon is investigating the source of the leaks.[1][2] The leak allegedly started on a Minecraft Discord server in March.[1][2][3]

U.S. officials said that Russia was likely behind the leak.[1][4] One image of a slide that circulated online showed a figure of 16,000-17,500 for the estimated number of Russians killed since the start of the invasion, with a figure of 61,000-71,500 for the number of Ukrainians killed, which officials said appeared to be doctored to be higher than actual Pentagon estimates.[4][5] There appeared to be multiple versions of the leaked slides, with the later versions, circulated by Russian channels, changing the casualty counts to favor Russia.[1][2] Bellingcat also provided evidence that some of the slides were altered.[2] Michael Weiss described the Ukraine slides distributed by pro-Russian sources as "crudely photoshopped".[6]

Background and initial release

In October 2021, the United States became aware of efforts by Russian president Vladimir Putin to increase military spending in Russia while ignoring the country's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using satellite imagery, intercepted communications, and sources within Russia, the U.S. believed that Putin intended to seize Kyiv. Speaking to President Joe Biden, Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Russia would attempt a multidirectional shock and awe attack.[7] Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the United States has provided the Ukrainian government with intelligence on Russia. Representative Adam Smith, then the chair of the House Armed Services Committee, said that the U.S. provides "some intelligence" to Ukraine on MSNBC's Morning Joe, but reserved that the U.S. was not providing the "kind of real-time targeting" that the U.S. has provided in other conflicts. Then-White House press secretary Jen Psaki commented that the U.S. provided more significant intelligence than what Smith described. Responding to Politico, a spokesperson for Smith called the United States' intelligence "rapid".[8]

The origins of the documents are unclear, but believed to have been first posted in a Discord server for a YouTuber known as WowMao. The documents were posted on March 1 and March 2; on March 4, a separate user posted a subset of the documents to a Minecraft Discord server. A Bellingcat investigation found that a user in a server known as "Thug Shaker Central" may have originally posted the documents, although these claims could not be confirmed. A month later, an anonymous user on the /pol/ imageboard on 4chan posted several images of the documents, with the user's sequence of documents circulating throughout pro-Russian Telegram channels. One such channel, "Donbass Devushka", was attributed to the first of these images. The images posted to Donbass Devushka and to /pol/ are identical, except for one image, where the number of Ukrainian casualties outweighs Russian ones, suggesting that Donbass Devushka altered the image.[9] The New York Times initially reported on the documents two days after they were posted on Telegram.[10]

The documents continued to be spread on Twitter; the social media platform disallows the spread of hacked materials, according to a policy page. The site's hacked material policy was enforced following the spread of a New York Post article alleging that Hunter Biden, the son of President Joe Biden, engaged in corruption. In response to a tweet about the leak, Twitter CEO Elon Musk sarcastically wrote that "[the government] can totally delete things from the Internet" and "that works perfectly and doesn't draw attention to whatever [the government was] trying to hide at all", seemingly alluding to the Streisand effect and suggesting that Twitter would not take down the documents. Discord declined to comment to The New York Times about the documents.[11]

Contents

The documents reveal that Russia is taking an active effort in combating NATO-provided tanks, such as the M1 Abrams (pictured)

The documents—primarily in the form of pictures of charts and graphs—concern intelligence that the United States holds on other nations, including North Korea, China, and Iran, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[12] The number of documents is estimated to be 100 pages. The documents appeared online as photographs of documents atop an apparent hunting magazine, with other objects—such as zip lock bags and Gorilla Glue scattered throughout the photographs.[13] Senior U.S. officials have attested to their legitimacy, believing that the documents are intelligence and operational briefs from the Joint Staff within the Pentagon. Despite this, the documents appear to be compiled from multiple sources, including the National Security Agency, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the State Department, and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA); in the lattermost case, one section of the documents originates from a daily intelligence update.[14]

The leaks show that U.S. intelligence agencies are spying not only on adversaries, but allies as well; while intelligence gathering on allies is privately acknowledged as par for the course by governments, public revelations still present a public relations challenge for the governments involved.[15]

Russo-Ukrainian War

Battle of Bakhmut

In one document dated late February 2023, the U.S. detailed attempts by the Ukrainian military to deliberate potential actions to flanks by the Russian military to the north and southwest in the Battle of Bakhmut, and supply shortages in the area.[16] An intelligence assessment states that as of February 25, Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut were nearly encircled; a senior Ukrainian official noted that morale was low among Ukrainian soldiers. Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's director of military intelligence described the Ukrainian position as "catastrophic" and offered to deploy elite units to safeguard the single supply line and prevent encirclement (deployment of reinforcements, including elite units, ultimately stayed the encirclement, but at a strategic cost, depleting seasoned forces crucial for any coming spring counter-offensive).[17]

Casualty estimates

The documents also cover information on U.S.-provided military resources Ukraine has access to,[5] purported Pentagon estimates on Russian and Ukrainian casualties,[1] and alleged information on Ukraine's planned counteroffensive.[18] Several documents also offer "low confidence" estimates for the number of casualties, with the U.S. estimating 189,500 to 223,000 Russian casualties, compared to 124,500 to 131,000 Ukrainian casualties.[19]

Russian military planning

In one top secret document, plans by the Russian General Staff to counter NATO-provided tanks were detailed. One such plan involves paying Russian soldiers who destroy NATO tanks.[19] The documents also shows U.S. awareness of Russian military planning, such as plans to destroy a hangar containing drones near Odesa.[14]

Russia-NATO aircraft encounters and near shootdown

According to one document, a Russian fighter jet nearly shot down a British surveillance plane off of the coast of Crimea. The incident, referred to as a "near-shootdown" of a Rivet Joint—a moniker referring to a variant of Boeing RC-135s—from the United Kingdom, occurred in September 2022. The incident was disclosed in October by Ben Wallace, the Secretary of State for Defence, to the House of Commons. Wallace specifically named two Sukhoi Su-27 jets as flying "recklessly", with one of the jets firing a missile at the Rivet Joint; Wallace believed the firing was a technical issue. Under the North Atlantic Treaty, such an attack could have provoked a larger response from NATO as a whole had the missile hit the plane. The document, labeled as classified for non-U.S. citizens, was among others detailing encounters that Russian fighter jets had with foreign aircraft, including the 2023 Black Sea drone incident. Purportedly, French and British aircraft made several crewed reconnaissance flights between the near-shootdown and February 26, 2023.[20]

Weapons use by Ukraine

The documents suggest that Ukraine's air defense against aircraft—largely made up of the S-300 and Buk missile systems—will be depleted by May.[21] Several documents refer to Ukraine using weapons within Russia. According to one document, in late February, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky suggested the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to strike within the Rostov Oblast. Another document states that China could increase aid to Russia if Ukraine struck within Russia.[13]

Countries

Russia

A document details GRU (Russia's military intelligence agency) information warfare efforts in Africa that promoted "Russian foreign policy" as well as to poison public opinion about the United States.[14]

The Russian paramilitary organization Wagner Group is also mentioned. The U.S. alleges that the Wagner Group actively seeking to undermine U.S. operations in Africa, and is seeking to expand its operation into Haiti, offering to combat violent gangs on behalf of the Haitian government.[22] One document states that Wagner Group emissaries met with authorities from Turkey in February, suggesting that Wagner Group could obtain the weapons from an outpost in Mali.[22] Another document provides an estimate of the number of Wagner personnel in Mali, noting that the large Wagner presence has raised security concerns in neighboring Ivory Coast.[22] The intelligence findings suggest that Wagner chief's Yevgeny Prigozhin's claims that the Russian Defense Ministry has been skimping on ammunition supplies to Wagner may have been grounded in fact.[22]

Several documents also allege that Russian cybercriminal group Zarya, acting under the direction of the Federal Security Service, compromised the IP address of an unnamed Canadian gas company and were capable of increasing valve pressure, disabling alarms, and shutting down pipelines. The reports were not confirmed; if true, they would mark the first time the U.S. intelligence community has "observed a pro-Russia-hacking group execute a disruptive attack against Western industrial control systems".[15]

Israel

One set of documents alleges that the Mossad—the national intelligence agency of Israel—encouraged staff and citizens to participate in judicial reform protests that flared up in January, following a series of changes supported by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to the documents, director David Barnea supported junior employees participating in the protests under the guise of anonymity. The Israeli government issued a statement denying the claims, and Israeli political commentators noted that the document appear to confuse permission with encouragement, and the actions of current and former Mossad employees.[23]

The documents show how the U.S. sought to pressure Israel into providing lethal aid. Israel has previously denied Ukraine weaponry, including its Iron Dome air defense system. Out of four options pressed by the U.S., Israel was most likely to engage in the "Turkish model", providing weaponry to Ukraine through third-parties while remaining cordial with Russia.[24]

Ukraine

One document states that the U.S. has been spying on Zelenskyy.[13]

South Korea

The documents describe internal debates in South Korea regarding the sale of Korean artillery shells to the U.S., about whether it would violate South Korea's policy on lethal aid if the U.S. then sent them to Ukraine. These debates were obtained through signals intelligence conducted by the CIA.[14]

United Arab Emirates

The documents also include information about the United Arab Emirates' ties with Russia.[6][25]

Sources and methods

In addition to the intelligence findings themselves, the leaked documents also reveal the sources and methods of intelligence gathering, for example revealing that the CIA is using signals intelligence to spy on discussions inside the Russian Defense Ministry, as well as to evesdrop on the South Korean and Israeli governments,[26] and individuals associated with the Wagner Group.[22] The leak further reveals which Russian agencies have been penetrated by U.S. intelligence. The leak imperils future intelligence gathering efforts as targeted governments take countermeasures and patch up revealed vulnerabilities, and also threatens human sources and whistleblowers in Russian organizations.[26][13]

Investigations

Department of Defense spokesperson Sabrina Singh said that the department was reviewing the leak.[10]

The Department of Justice has opened an investigation on the leak.[27][25]

Reactions

Ukrainian presidential advisor and peace negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said that the leak contained a "very large amount of fictitious information" which appeared to be "standard elements of operational games by Russian intelligence and nothing more."[12] Ukrainian defense intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov said "in recent decades, the Russian special services’ most successful operations have been taking place in Photoshop... we see false, distorted figures on losses on both sides, with part of the information collected from open sources." On the same day Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy released a statement about a meeting with military staff in part "focused on measures to prevent the leakage of information."[27]

Russian military analyst Yuri Kotenok with 420,000 followers on Telegram, claimed the slides might have been planted by the U.S. to mislead Russia and downplay the strength and readiness of Ukrainian brigades before an offensive.[2][6] Kyle Walter of British firm Logically, which researches disinformation, says most voices on Russian-speaking Telegram were calling the leak a Western false flag.[1]

A researcher of information operations, Thomas Rid, said "The fact that unedited and edited – doctored – versions of some files are available online makes me skeptical that this is a professional Russian intelligence operation" because the falsification of casualties and other details "only makes it easier to detect the facts, and thus defeats the purpose." According to Rid and CNN, if the details were both stolen by Russia and useful to Russia, they would not have publicized both the doctored and original versions as it would weaken their impact.[25]

Quoted by the The New York Times, Ukrainian Lieutenant Colonel Yuriy Bereza said, "We can no longer determine where is the truth and where is the lie [...] We are at that stage of the war when the information war is sometimes even more important than the direct physical clashes at the front."[2] Host of the populist podcast Breaking Points Saagar Enjeti was very quick to cover the documents leak on his show.

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f "New Batch of Classified Documents Appear on Social Media Sites". The New York Times. April 7, 2023. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  2. ^ a b c d e f Trofimov, Yaroslav; Youssef, Nancy A. "WSJ News Exclusive | Pentagon Investigates More Social-Media Posts Purporting to Include Secret U.S. Documents". WSJ. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  3. ^ "Pentagon's Ukraine War Plans Leaked on Minecraft Discord Before Telegram and Twitter". www.vice.com. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  4. ^ a b Stewart, Phil; Stewart, Phil (April 8, 2023). "Russia likely behind U.S. military document leak, U.S. officials say". Reuters. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  5. ^ a b Bertrand, Natasha; Chance, Matthew (April 7, 2023). "Pentagon investigating alleged classified documents circulating on social media of US and NATO intelligence on Ukraine | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  6. ^ a b c Rushton, James; Weiss, Michael. "Tranche of purported U.S. and allied military secrets leaked online in possible major intelligence breach". Yahoo News. Retrieved April 8, 2023. Ironically, pro-Russian commentators who originally saw the Ukraine files as valuable "gotchas" now doubt their authenticity after evidence of their doctoring came to light. Instead, they believe the U.S. or Ukraine released these texts as a psychological operation meant to dupe the Kremlin. [...] Meanwhile, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior Ukrainian official, claimed the leak of the original Ukraine files was a Russian provocation to discredit Kyiv's forthcoming counteroffensive.
  7. ^ Harris, Shane; DeYoung, Karen; Khurshudyan, Isabelle (August 16, 2022). "The Post examined the lead-up to the Ukraine war. Here's what we learned". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  8. ^ Ward, Alexander; Forgey, Quint (March 3, 2022). "Is the U.S. providing Ukraine with targeting intel? Maybe". Politico. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  9. ^ Toler, Aric (April 9, 2023). "From Discord to 4chan: The Improbable Journey of a US Intelligence Leak". Bellingcat. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  10. ^ a b De Luce, Dan (April 7, 2023). "U.S. officials believe 'leaked' U.S. classified documents about Ukraine war strength may be real". NBC News. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  11. ^ Mac, Ryan; Browning, Kellen (April 8, 2023). "Why Leaked Pentagon Documents Are Still Circulating on Social Media". The New York Times. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  12. ^ a b "Ukraine, North Korea and Iran included in leaked documents". ABC News. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  13. ^ a b c d Bertrand, Natasha; Atwood, Kylie. "Leaked Pentagon documents provide rare window into depth of US intelligence on allies and foes". CNN. Retrieved April 9, 2023.
  14. ^ a b c d Barnes, Julian; Cooper, Helene; Gibbons-Neff, Thomas; Schwirtz, Michael; Schmitt, Eric (April 8, 2023). "Leaked Documents Reveal Depth of U.S. Spy Efforts and Russia's Military Struggles". The New York Times. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  15. ^ a b Bilefsky, Dan (April 9, 2023). "A pro-Russian hacking group may have targeted Canada's energy infrastructure". The New York Times. Retrieved April 9, 2023.
  16. ^ Kramer, Andrew (April 8, 2023). "Leaked document shows the dire nature of battle for Bakhmut". The New York Times. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  17. ^ Kramer, Andrew E. (April 8, 2023). "Leaked Document Shows Dire Nature of the Battle for Bakhmut". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 9, 2023.
  18. ^ Tondo, Lorenzo. "Pentagon investigates reported leak of top-secret Ukraine documents". The Guardian.
  19. ^ a b Gibbons-Neff, Thomas (April 9, 2023). "Russia promises bonus pay to troops who destroy NATO tanks, documents say". The New York Times. Retrieved April 9, 2023.
  20. ^ Lamothe, Dan (April 9, 2023). "Russia nearly shot down British spy plane near Ukraine, leaked document says". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 9, 2023.
  21. ^ Cooper, Helene; Schwirtz, Michael; Gibbons-Neff, Thomas (April 9, 2023). "Leaked Documents Suggest Ukrainian Air Defense Is in Peril if Not Reinforced". The New York Times. Retrieved April 9, 2023.
  22. ^ a b c d e Schwirtz, Michael (April 8, 2023). "Wagner's influence extends far beyond Ukraine, leaked documents show". The New York Times. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  23. ^ Bergman, Ronen; Kingsley, Patrick (April 8, 2023). "Documents allege that Israel's spy agency encouraged anti-government protests". The New York Times. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  24. ^ Kershner, Isabel (April 9, 2023). "Leak suggests U.S. could try to press Israel to provide lethal aid to Ukraine". The New York Times. Retrieved April 9, 2023.
  25. ^ a b c Bertrande, Natasha; Lyngaas, Sean; Rabinowitz, Hannah (April 7, 2023). "DOJ opens investigation into leaks of apparent classified US military documents". CNN. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
  26. ^ a b Barnes, Julian E.; Cooper, Helene; Gibbons-Neff, Thomas; Schwirtz, Michael; Schmitt, Eric (April 8, 2023). "Leaked Documents Reveal Depth of U.S. Spy Efforts and Russia's Military Struggles". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 9, 2023.
  27. ^ a b "US investigating whether Ukraine war documents were leaked". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
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