Potential superpower

The present day governments to be called, or to remain, a potential superpower for the 21st century.

  United States

(current superpower)

  China

  European Union

  European Union Candidates

  India

  Russia

Some academics have speculated on nations that are potential superpowers in the 21st century, mentioning several candidates. Whether China, the European Union, India, or Russia, will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate. The most common belief held is that only the United States of America currently fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower; although it is a matter of debate regarding Russia's status as a possible superpower. Brazil is considered by some to be a potential great power.

The record of such predictions has not been accurate. For example, in the 1980s some political and economic analysts erroneously predicted that Japan would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, huge GDP, and high economic growth at that time.

China

People's Republic of China

Main article: Chinese Century

The People's Republic of China receives continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status, and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts. Professor Shujie Yao of Nottingham University has said "China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2038 if current growth rates continue," and that China's GDP will overtake that of Japan by 2017 or 2018, and Germany's by 2008. Professor Yao thinks that "under an optimistic scenario, China could become a real superpower in 30 years' time."

Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China may become too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk in China: Fragile Superpower. Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include: limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.

European Union

European Union

Main article: European Century

The European Union has been called an emerging superpower by academics. T.R. Reid, Andrew Reding, Mark Leonard and John McCormick, believe that the power of the European Union will rival that of the United States in the 21st century. Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large economy, low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members states' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week).

The American author and international relations expert Parag Khanna believes that the EU, and China, will achieve superpower status in the 21st century and rival the power of the United States. About the EU he mentiones the EU's growing influence, on America's expense, and an increasing European soft power. He writes that “economic power is more important than military power.” Thus, the competition will be won through “soft power.”.

He also mentiones the large economy of the EU, that European technologies more and more set the global standards and that European countries give the most development assistance. On the fact that the EU lacks a common army, he replies that the EU doesn't need one. The EU use intelligence and the police to apprehend radical Islamists, social policy to try to integrate restive Muslim populations and economic strength to incorporate the former Soviet Union and gradually subdue Russia.

Parag Khanna also says that South America, east Asia and other regions prefer to emulate the "European Dream" than the American variant. This could possibly be seen in the South American Union and the African Union.

On the other hand Laurent Cohen-Tanugi states that the EU as a whole has consistently suffered from a growth deficit vis-a-vis the US, high unemployment, and public deficits even while most member states of the EU lagged substantially behind the US in R&D investment, technological innovation, and, since 1995, productivity gains.

Additionally, it is argued by commentators that full political integration is not required for the European Union to wield international influence: that its apparent weaknesses constitute its real strengths (as of its low profile diplomacy and the opsetion of the rule of law ) and that the EU represents a new and potentially more successful type of international actor than traditional ones ; however, it is uncertain if the effectiveness of such an influence would be equal to that of a politically integrated superpower. (e.g. United States)

India

India

Main article: Indian Century

Newsweek and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential of becoming a superpower. With 9.4% GDP growth in 2007, Goldman Sachs predicts that as 700 million Indians are expected to move to cities by 2050, the Indian economy may surpass the United States's (in US$) by 2043.

"India has moved onto a much faster growth trajectory than the bank had previously expected, fueled by strong and steady productivity gains in its legions of new factories, which are producing everything from brassieres to cars."

India's strength lies in its demographics; more than 50% of India's population is under 25. Dr Narendra Jadhav, a principal advisor to the Reserve Bank of India and a former advisor to the executive director at the IMF, says "India has a great potential to become an economic super power because of its growing young population." A young population coupled with the second largest English-speaking population in the world could give India an advantage over China.

Minister Mentor and former Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew believes that

"India’s economy can grow to about 60-70 percent that of China. I see that as the long-term trend. They’re not going to be bigger than China - on present projections. But 60-70 percent of China with a population which will be bigger than China by 2050, is something considerable, and they’ve some very able people at the top. I draw this historical lesson which I believe will be repeated, though not in exactly the same way, but will manifest itself in a similar pattern.

On the other hand, Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute and former counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan Administration Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. has embraced the notion being put forth that

"It is going to be India's century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century".

China and India rising to superpower status is not inevitable, according to scholars such as Professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, who suggest that millions mired in poverty and ineffective government prevents China or India from rivaling the U.S. or the E.U. any time soon.

Russia

Russian Federation

The Russian Federation is a suggested potential candidate for resuming superpower status in the twenty-first century due to its fast-growing economy, energy superpower status and the size of its military. According to Steven Rosefielde of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Russia intends to "reemerge as a full-fledged superpower," and "contrary to conventional wisdom, this goal is easily within the Kremlin’s grasp, but the cost to the Russian people and global security would be immense" . Rosefielde further argues that "Russia has an intact military-industrial complex... and the mineral wealth to reactivate its dormant structurally militarized potential," and that "supply-side constraints don’t preclude a return to prodigal superpowerdom".

Alexander Golts of the St. Petersburg Times argues that Putin's confrontations with the US on nuclear issues are in pursuit of regaining superpower status for Russia.

In a more recent report by ABC News, a senior U.S. official asserted that "Russia is once again indisputably the number two military power in the world, second only to the United States". Russia's military strength has risen substantially under former President Putin, having recently produced the world's most powerful conventional bomb and the world's most advanced anti-ballistic missile system to date. Additionally, its forces are currently in the midst of a $189 billion ($302 billion PPP) modernization plan. Russia's defence minister, Sergei Ivanov, said that he wanted to exceed the Soviet army in combat readiness.

Mike Ritchie of industry analysts Energy Intelligence says "Russia was always a superpower that used its energy to win friends and influence among its former Soviet satellites. Nothing has really changed much. They are back in the same game, winning friends and influencing people and using their power to do so."

Russia is often considered to be an energy superpower and a nuclear superpower due to its vast amounts of natural resources and large nuclear arsenal mostly leftover from the former Soviet Union.

There are a myriad of obstacles to Russia gaining superpower status, such as a rapidly shrinking sphere of influence lost to the EU and China and a rapidly shrinking and aging population . A shrinking workforce leads generally to a stagnating or shrinking economy. In addition, Russia is currently only the tenth largest economy in the world by nominal GDP, and by this parameter is approximately twelve times smaller than the US economy. Russia is heavily reliant on resource extraction, especially fossil fuels, for its economy. .

See also

• Superpower
• Great power