2012 United States Senate elections
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Class I (33 of the 100) seats in the United States Senate | |||||||||||||||||||
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 Senate Seats up for election: Democratic incumbent Independent incumbent Republican incumbent No Senate election | |||||||||||||||||||
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Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 6, 2012, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2013 until January 3, 2019. Additionally, special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur during the 2011-2012 term. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 23 seats up for election, including 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats, and Republicans are expected to have 10 seats up for election.
The 2012 presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives, elections for governors in 13 states and territories, and many state and local elections will also be held on this date.
Race summary
Composition
Among the Senate seats up for election in 2012, there are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents. The Independents include Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary. Lieberman and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democratic Party.
There may be some additional changes if Senators die or resign. If Senators in other classes die or resign between 2010 and 2012, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 111th Congress (on January 3, 2009), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a Senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.
Predictions
| Source | Safe Democratic* | Likely Democratic* | Leans Democratic* | Tossup | Leans Republican | Likely Republican | Safe Republican |
| Consensus among all predictions |
Delaware Maryland New Mexico Vermont* |
Arizona Mississippi Texas Utah Wyoming | |||||
| Cook Political Report as of December 7, 2010 (updates) |
California Hawaii Minnesota New Jersey New York Rhode Island Wisconsin |
Michigan Montana North Dakota Pennsylvania Washington |
Connecticut* Florida Missouri Ohio |
Massachusetts Nebraska Nevada Virginia West Virginia |
Maine | Indiana Tennessee | |
| FiveThirtyEight |
|||||||
| Roll Call as of December 13, 2010 (updates) |
California Hawaii New York |
Michigan Minnesota Montana New Jersey North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Washington Wisconsin |
Connecticut* Florida Massachusetts Missouri Nebraska Nevada Virginia[18] West Virginia |
Maine | Indiana Tennessee |
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| Rothenberg Political Report |
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| Sabato's Crystal Ball | |||||||
*The Democrats include Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary. Lieberman and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democratic Party.
Complete list of races
Democratic incumbents
Dianne Feinstein of California
Four-term Senator Dianne Feinstein was re-elected with 59% of the vote in 2006. She will be 79 years old in 2012.
At a rally for Barbara Boxer in October 2010, Feinstein said that she will be running for re-election.[1]
Tom Carper of Delaware
Two-term Senator Tom Carper was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2006. He will be 65 years old in 2012. Carper is seeking re-election.[2]
Bill Nelson of Florida
Two-term Senator Bill Nelson was reelected with 60% of the vote in 2006. He will be 70 years old in 2012. Nelson will seek reelection. Plant City Republican Mike McCalister has announced his candidacy.[3]
Potential Republican candidates include outgoing Senator George LeMieux, Congressmen Vern Buchanan and Connie Mack IV, former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, and state Senate President Mike Haridopolos.[3]
A poll conducted in July, 2010 showed Nelson leading LeMieux 49-28% with 23% undecided. Nelson also led former Governor Jeb Bush by a smaller margin of 46-44% with 9% undecided and a margin of error of ±3.26%.[19]
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
Four-term Senator Daniel Akaka was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2006. He will be 88 years old in 2012. Akaka will seek reelection. Former Republican Governor Linda Lingle may seek the seat.[4]
Ben Cardin of Maryland
First-term Senator Ben Cardin was elected with 54% of the vote in 2006 against former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele. He will be 69 years old in 2012. According to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted of 569 voters from July 10–12, 2010, in a potential rematch of 2006, Cardin leads Steele 58% to 28%. In a generic matchup, Cardin leads with 51%, to an unknown generic Republican at 33%.[20]
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Two-term Senator Debbie Stabenow was re-elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote to 41% for Oakland County Sheriff and former State Senate Majority Leader Michael Bouchard after narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham in 2000.
Republican Conservative Constitutionalist and Tea Party Activist, Chad Dewey, announced his intent to run in the 2012 election while attending the Tax Day Tea Party event in Washington D.C. on April 15, 2010.[21]
A poll conducted in March 2010 showed former Republican Governor John Engler leading Stabenow, 42% to 41%, with a margin of error of ±4% and 10% unsure.[22]
Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is looking at running.[23]
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
First-term Senator Amy Klobuchar was elected with 58% of the vote in 2006. Senator Klobuchar's approval ratings, last reported at 59%, have steadily risen since her election in November 2006. Her quick response to the I-35 bridge collapse in her home city of Minneapolis and her travels around the state have solidified the senator's popularity with the citizens of Minnesota. On March 12, 2010, a Rasmussen poll indicated 67% of Minnesotans approved of the job she was doing.
Claire McCaskill of Missouri
In this bellwether state, first-term Senator Claire McCaskill was elected with 49.6% of the vote in 2006, narrowly defeating then-incumbent Jim Talent. McCaskill will seek re-election in 2012, with businessman Samuel Lipari challenging her for the Democratic ticket.[6][24]
The only Republican to have declared their intent to run in 2012 is former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman.[25] Jim Talent is still considering a rematch.[26] Other potential Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, attorney and former U.S. House candidate Ed Martin, and Ann Wagner, former Chair of the Missouri Republican Party and former Ambassador to Luxembourg.[27]
A survey by PPP on December 1, 2010 showed McCaskill with an approval rating of 43%, with 44 % disapproving.[28] The same study showed her leading Steelman by 1% in a possible 2012 matchup, but trailing potential candidates Talent and Kinder both by 2% (with a ±4.3% margin of error).[29]
Jon Tester of Montana
First-term Senator Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns. Tester will seek re-election.[7] 2008 Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor Steve Daines has announced his candidacy.[8]
Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg and Neil Livingstone, a national security and terrorism expert are exploring possible runs against Tester.[30]
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Two-term Senator and former Governor Ben Nelson was re-elected with 64% of the vote in 2006. He will be 71 years old in 2012. Nelson has decided to seek a third term.[9] Republican State Attorney General Jon Bruning has announced his candidacy.[10]
Pundits and analysts have suggested Nelson will be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in 2012 after he secured deals to exempt Nebraska from new Medicaid payments, ease excise taxes on home state health insurance companies, and broker abortion deals in the Senate healthcare bill.[31]
Treasurer Don Stenberg may run on the Republican ticket. Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman has announced he will not run.[32]
Bob Menendez of New Jersey
First-term Senator Bob Menendez became the first Hispanic Senator to represent New Jersey in January 2006 when Former Senator Jon Corzine appointed him to the office after having resigned to become Governor, following his election to said office in November 2005. In November 2006 Menendez easily defeated Republican Tom Kean, Jr., son of popular former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Tom Kean and was elected to a full term. He will be 58 years old in 2012.
In November 2009, former CNN Anchor Lou Dobbs was seriously considering a challenge to Menendez as either a Republican or Independent.[33]
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
Five-term Senator Jeff Bingaman was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2006. He will be 69 years old in 2012.
Businessman Bill English has announced his candidacy as a Republican.[12]
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Two-term Senator Hillary Clinton was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2006. She narrowly lost the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination to Barack Obama. She resigned on January 21, 2009 when the Senate confirmed her as Secretary of State. On January 23, Governor David Paterson appointed Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand to the seat. Gillibrand won a special election in 2010 with 61.2% of the vote. Gillibrand will seek re-election[13]
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Four-term Senator Kent Conrad was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2006. Conrad has not decided whether to run for re-election in 2012 when he will be 64 years old.[34]
Sherrod Brown of Ohio
First-term Senator Sherrod Brown was elected with 56% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Mike DeWine, whose popularity suffered due to scandals involving former Republican Governor Bob Taft and ex-Congressman Bob Ney. A poll conducted June 26–27 by Public Policy Polling shows that 45% of voters would vote to re-elect Brown, while 41% would vote to replace him.[35]
Brown will seek re-election. Republican Congressman Jim Jordan and Ohio Republican Secretary of State-elect Jon Husted[14] as well as Lieutenant Governor-elect Mary Taylor[36] and Congressman Steve LaTourette[37] have been named as a possible contenders.
Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
First-term Senator Bob Casey, Jr., the son of popular former Governor Bob Casey, was elected with 58.7% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Rick Santorum. A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling June 19–21, 2010 showed that in a Casey-Santorum rematch, Casey leads 51-39.[38] Casey will seek re-election.[15]
Former Senate staffer Marc Scaringi has announced his candidacy as a Republican.[16]
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
First-term Senator Sheldon Whitehouse was elected with 53.5% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Lincoln Chafee by 6 percentage points. State Republican Chairman Giovanni Cicione has announced he is considering the seat, though he would not run should out-going Republican Governor Donald Carcieri run. Other Republicans mentioned as potential candidates are Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian and Cranston Mayor Allen Fung.[39]
Jim Webb of Virginia
First-term Senator and former Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb was elected to the Senate in 2006 by a margin of 0.6 percent, defeating then-incumbent George Allen in the biggest upset of the 2006 election. He will be 66 years old in 2012.
Allen is considering a rematch.[40]
Maria Cantwell of Washington
Two-term Senator Maria Cantwell was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2006 over Republican Mike McGavick. A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling July 27-August 1, 2010 of 1,204 voters had Cantwell leading in two potential matchups. In a matchup with Republican Congressman Dave Reichert, Cantwell led 47% to 41%. In a matchup with Republican Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Cantwell led 49% to 37%.[41]
Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Former nine-term Senator Robert Byrd, the longest serving U.S. Senator in history, was re-elected with 64.4% of the vote in 2006. He voluntarily stepped down from his chairmanship of the powerful Appropriations Committee, effective January 6, 2009. In a speech on the Senate floor, Sen. Byrd proclaimed that he would remain in the Senate "till this old body drops."[42][43] On June 28, 2010, Robert Byrd died at the age of 92, leaving this seat vacant.
A special election to fill this seat was held in November 2010, which popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin won with 53.5% of the vote. Manchin will be 65 years old in 2012.
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin
Four-term Senator Herb Kohl, owner of the NBA's Milwaukee Bucks, was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2006. He will be 77 years old in 2012. Kohl will determine whether he should seek re-election over the next several of months.[44]
Congressman Paul Ryan will not run against Kohl if he seeks re-election but will contemplate running for the Senate if Kohl were to retire.[45]
Independent incumbents
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
Four-term Senator Joe Lieberman sat as a Democrat until 2006, when he was defeated by Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary. He won re-election with 49.7% of the vote in 2006 as an independent under the Connecticut for Lieberman Party and has since caucused with the Democrats as an "Independent Democrat." He will be 70 years old in 2012.
Connecticut Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy is a potential candidate.[46]
Pundits have predicted that due to Lieberman's unwavering support of John McCain he will be experiencing a tougher race than he normally runs.[47]
Bernie Sanders of Vermont
First-term Senator Bernie Sanders is an independent Senator (and self-described democratic socialist) who caucuses with the Democrats and won election with 65.4% of the vote in 2006 after Jim Jeffords, also an independent, retired. He will be 71 years old in 2012.
Republican incumbents
Jon Kyl of Arizona
Three-term Senator Jon Kyl was re-elected with 53% of the vote in 2006. He has yet to announce if he will seek a fourth term in 2012, when he will be 70 years old.[48]
Richard Lugar of Indiana
Six-term Senator Richard Lugar was re-elected with 87% of the vote in 2006, running unopposed by a Democrat. When the 111th Congress convened, Lugar became the most senior Republican in the Senate. On August 11, 2010, Lugar announced he expects to run for a 7th term in 2012.[5] He will be 80 years old in 2012.
Olympia Snowe of Maine
Three-term Senator Olympia Snowe was re-elected with 73% of the vote in 2006, the largest margin of any incumbent in 2006, barring Indiana Senator Richard Lugar (who ran without a Democratic opponent). A conservative challenger, Scott D'Amboise, is already running against Snowe in the 2010 Republican Primary.[49] She will be 65 years old in 2012.
Scott Brown of Massachusetts
Eight-term Senator Ted Kennedy was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2006. However, he wasn't able to finish his term as he died just before midnight of August 25, 2009 at the age of 77, due to a malignant glioma, a form of brain cancer.
Paul G. Kirk was appointed as the interim Senator by Gov. Deval Patrick and was sworn in on September 25, 2009 to serve until a permanent Senator was elected in the Senate special election on January 19, 2010.
Republican Scott P. Brown won the election and was sworn in on February 4, 2010. He will be up for election to a full term in 2012. He is the first Republican senator to be elected in Massachusetts since 1972. He won 52% of the vote in the special election.
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
First-term Senator Roger Wicker was appointed after former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott announced on November 26, 2007 that he was going to retire by the end of 2007.[50] Wicker defeated former Governor Ronnie Musgrove in the 2008 special election and will be up for re-election in 2012.
John Ensign of Nevada
Two-term Senator John Ensign was re-elected with 55% of the vote in 2006 against Jack Carter, son of former Democratic President Jimmy Carter.
In June 2009, Ensign admitted to an affair that he had with a campaign staffer. Sources also reported blackmail with the husband of the women involved apparently asking Ensign for a substantial amount of money.[51] On July 14, 2009, Ensign announced that he was running for re-election.[11] Republican Representative Dean Heller is rumored to be considering running after declining to run against Nevada's other senator Harry Reid in 2010.[52]
Nevada Democrats are encouraging Representative Shelley Berkley to run for the seat.[53]
Bob Corker of Tennessee
First-term Senator Bob Corker was elected with 50.7% of the vote in 2006. He narrowly defeated Harold Ford, Jr. and has been raising money for re-election since. Country music singer Hank Williams, Jr. has expressed an interest in challenging Corker for the GOP nomination in 2012.[54]
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote despite a poor overall climate for Republicans, who lost control of both chambers of Congress that year. In an interview with Texas Monthly published in December 2007, Hutchison stated that she would not seek re-election and might also resign from the Senate as early as 2009 to run for governor.[55] After losing the gubernatorial primary to incumbent Governor Rick Perry, Hutchison announced that she would serve out the remainder of her term.[56]
For the Republicans, Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael L. Williams, Republican fundraiser and former state Secretary of the State Roger Williams, and state Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones are candidates.[57][58] Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert has also been mentioned as a possible contender for the seat, as well as Greg Abbott and David Dewhurst.
John Sharp, the former Democratic state comptroller, has said he will run whenever the seat comes up for an election.[59]
Orrin Hatch of Utah
Six-term Senator and former Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2006. He will be 78 years old in 2012, and has announced he will run for re-election. Hatch has no formally-announced opponents, but Sen. Bob Bennett was ousted by the Republican Party in their 2010 state convention, receiving just 25% of the convention delegate votes. Though both remain popular with Utahns in general, the sitting senators are viewed by many in the Utah Republican Party as too moderate, and many names are being floated as potential challengers.[17]
John Barrasso of Wyoming
First-term Senator John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate seat after the death of Republican Craig L. Thomas and won a special election in 2008 to complete Thomas's term.
Fundraising
Massie Ritsch, communications director for the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics said that fundraising is almost a full-time job. For example, Senator Bob Corker (R, TN) set up "the Bob Corker for Senate 2012 committee" on Nov. 8, 2006, or one day after winning a six-year term.[60]
References
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- ^ a b "Lingle looks forward". Politico. 2010-12-10.
- ^ a b Tom Coyne (August 11, 2010). "Lugar expects to seek 7th Senate term in 2012". Chicago Tribune.
- ^ a b Eli Yokley (November 9, 2010). "The Next Senate Race: McCaskill v. ?". PoliticM.
- ^ a b Charles S. Johnson (July 17, 2010). "Horse Sense: Schweitzer not eyeing Senate seat". Billings Gazette.
- ^ a b "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". NBC Montana. November 13, 2010.
- ^ a b "Nelson will run for re-election". Political Wire. July 1, 2010.
- ^ a b "Bruning 'ready to run' for Senate". Omaha.com. November 5, 2010.
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- ^ "Talent, Steelman consider challenging McCaskill in 2012". The Associated Press. November 28, 2010. Retrieved December 1, 2010.
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{{cite web}}: Missing pipe in:|publisher=(help) - ^ "PPP Poll: Dem Sen. McCaskill Faces Tough Race In 2012". talkingpointsmemo.com accessdate=December 1, 2010. December 1, 2010.
{{cite web}}: Missing pipe in:|publisher=(help) - ^ "Daines, Livingstone Mulling GOP Senate Bids in Montana". Roll Call.
- ^ Manu Raju (December 24, 2009). "Nebraska governor to Ben Nelson: Keep the money". Politico.
- ^ By Paul HammelWORLD-HERALD BUREAU. "Heineman: No Senate bid in 2012". Omaha.com. Retrieved November 5, 2010.
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- ^ POSTED: 12:47 pm CST November 21, 2008 (November 21, 2008). "Hank Williams Jr. Announces Senate Run - Politics News Story - WSMV Nashville". Wsmv.com. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "Hutchison may leave U.S. Senate in 2009 | Houston & Texas News | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle". Chron.com. October 16, 2007. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
- ^ "Hutchison won't give up Texas Senate seat - Politics - Decision 2010 - msnbc.com". MSNBC. March 31, 2010. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
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