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2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive

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2023 Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.svg
Date8 June 2023 (2023-06-08) – present
(1 year, 2 months, 2 weeks and 6 days)
Location
Southern Ukraine (Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast) and Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast)
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes		 Several villages in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts liberated and advances around the Berkhivka Reservoir
Belligerents
 Ukraine  Russia
Units involved

 Armed Forces of Ukraine

 Russian Armed Forces

Strength
Per Western media: 55,000-60,000 soldiers, organised into 12 brigades, 9 of which were Western "armed and trained".[6][7][8] Unknown
Casualties and losses
1 Leopard 2A4, 3 Leopard 2A6, 17 M2 Bradleys, 3 Leopard 2R and 1 BMR-2[9][10][11] 2 TOS-1A[12], 3 T-72, 3 T-80, 1 T-80U, 2 MT-LB, 1 MT-LBVM, 4 BMP-1, 2 BMP-3, 1 BMD-2.[13]

On 8 June 2023, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive against Russian forces occupying its territory.[14][15][16][17][18] These efforts were seemingly made in several directions, including in Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and others.[19][20][21]

Background

Following the Kherson and Kharkiv counteroffensives in late 2022, fighting on the front lines largely stagnated, with fighting mostly concentrated around the city of Bakhmut during the first half of 2023.[22] Meanwhile, Russia built an 800 km long defensive line in preparation for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.[23]

Prelude

See also: Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam

In the days before the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine engaged in "shaping operations" to test Russian defences in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine.[19][24] On 3 June 2023, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, said Ukraine was ready to launch a counteroffensive.[25] The next day, Ukrainian officials declared an "operational silence" to not compromise the military operations.[26] On 6 June, the Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River was breached, flooding areas downstream and reducing water supplies to Crimea. As the counteroffensive began, Russian Armed Forces shelled Kherson, where rescuers were evacuating residents threatened by flooding.[27][28]

Pre-counteroffensive operations

By 5 June, Ukraine was reported by Russian milbloggers to have accelerated offensive actions in eastern Ukraine, concentrated against the Novodonetsk area, between Vuhledar (the site of an ongoing battle) and Velyka Novosilka in southern Donetsk Oblast.[29] Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said that Ukrainian forces had made gains of up to one mile in the Bakhmut area. Although Ukrainian officials remained largely silent on the matter, there was speculation that the offensive actions were the beginning of the long-awaited counteroffensive.[30] A Russian-appointed official in Zaporizhzhia Oblast said the Ukrainians aimed to break through Russian lines and reach the Azov Sea.[31]

Since June 3, the Ukrainian 37th Marine Brigade engaged in a slow but consistent offensive action around the frontline settlement of Novodonetske in the Dontesk Oblast. Without armored support, the marines where able to push back the Vostok Battalion of the DNR's people's militia mostly through the use of artillery, and by having APC's rapidly get the marines to the front, and then withdrawing too far for Russian artillery to hit.[32]

Bakhmut

Main article: Battle of Bakhmut

In May 2023, Ukrainian forces were engaged in "localized" counterattacks on the flanks of Bakhmut, as part of its larger battle.[33] On 12 May, Ukrainian forces forced the Russians out of the southern bank of the Berkhivske Reservoir, about 4 kilometres (2.5 mi) northwest of Bakhmut.[33] Ukraine claimed further gains between 16 May and 18 May 2023, saying they had liberated 20 square kilometres (7.7 sq mi) in the north and south of the suburbs of Bakhmut.[34][35]

Since 5 June 2023, Ukrainian forces were engaged in counterattacks in and around the city of Bakhmut. That day it was reported that Ukrainian forces had retaken part of the village of Berkhivka, north of Bakhmut.[36] Ukrainian forces claimed to have advanced further around the flanks of Bakhmut, 200 to 1,600 metres towards Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Paraskoviivka in the north, and 100 to 700 meters near Ivanivske and around Klishchiivka in the southwest. A Ukrainian military official said that the Ukrainians had advanced from 300 metres to one kilometre around the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut.[37][38] On 6 June 2023, further Ukrainian counterattacks were reported near Berkhivka[39], and Ukraine claimed further gains of 200 - 1,000 meters near Bakhmut on 7 June.[40]

Counteroffensive

Donetsk front

On 8 June, Ukrainian forces advanced in the direction of Bakhmut, making between 200 metres to 1.1 kilometres (0.68 mi) of gains,[41] making further limited gains on 9 June.[42] By 10 June, Ukrainian forces advanced up to 1,400m in different unspecified areas of the Bakhmut front and were engaged in heavy fighting in Berkhivka and Yahidne.[43] By 9 June, Ukrainian forces advanced along the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets Canal west of Andriivka, and forced the 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade and a "Storm-Z" penal battalion to withdraw from their positions on the canal.[4]

On 8 June, Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks on the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, with fighting reported in the direction of Velyka Novosilka.[4] By 9 June, Ukrainian forces had made marginal gains on the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in Blahodatne, which is in the vicinity of Velyka Novosilka,[4] and Russian forces had retreated from positions west of Storozheve.[43] On 10 June, Russian sources said Ukraine had advanced near Neskuchne,[43] and on 11 June Russian sources announced a Russian withdrawal from Neskuchne[44], the Ukrainians later confirming that the city was liberated.[45] Alongside Neskuchne, the settlement of Makarivka [uk] was also reported to have been liberated.[46] Ukrainian drone footage shows Russian forces have withdrawn from their positions near Storozheve. Ukraine is credited with capturing 95 square kilometres (37 sq mi) of territory around Velyka Novosilka after a week of fighting.[44]

On June 11, the 68th Jaeger Brigade, alongside several territorial defence battalions had liberated the village of Blahodatne marking the third settlement to be liberated by Ukrainian forces during the counteroffensive.[3][47][48] Later that same day, the neighboring village of Makarivka was also confirmed to have been liberated by the Ukrainian in a press release. In total, Ukrainian forces advanced between 300 and 1,500 meters.[49][50] Additionally, Hanna Maliar announced that Ukrainian forces had advanced 250 meters along the Berkhivka Reservoir in the Bakhmut front on June 11.[51]

The ISW assessed that between June 10 and June 11 Ukrainian forces had liberated Makarivka, Neskuchne, Blahodatne, Storozheve, and Novodarivka in southern Dontesk but reiterated that claims of a Ukrainian “breakthrough” are premature at this time. They also reported that this advance had been against largely forces of the 5th Combined Arms Army including the “Kaskad” Operational Combat Tactical Formation of the DNR People's Militas the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade. The ISW also reported marginal Ukrainian gains in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on June 11 against the Russian 3rd Army Corps.[5]

Zaporizhzhia front

On 8 June, Ukrainian forces launched counter attacks around the city of Orikhiv,[52][53] in the Polohy Raion of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where Russian forces had constructed the Mala Tokmachka-Polohy defensive line. The attacks focused around the front line villages of Robotyne and Verbove. Ukrainian forces broke through the first lines of defense, held by the 58th Combined Arms Army and the GRU, causing Russian forces to fall back to a second line of defense. The Russian forces would later stage a counterattack, retaking the original line.[4] The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an independent think tank, noted that the Russian Southern Military District, in charge of the defense of this line, acted with an "uncharacteristic degree of coherency" in their defensive operations. Russian sources offered various explanations for the success of the initial defense, such as effective mining, air superiority, and the use of electronic warfare (EW) systems.[4] U.S. officials and the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered "significant losses" during the attacks. U.S. officials said the losses are not expected to affect the counteroffensive as a whole.[19]

On 9 June, more fighting was reported in the vicinity of Orikhiv,[54] with Ukrainian forces initiating a push towards the town of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast with a mixture of Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles.[55] Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Ukrainian forces on their "results" in the east of Ukraine.[56] Ukrainian forces were seen operating in the vicinity of Lobkove, and a Russian milblogger claimed Ukrainian forces made gains in Robotyne, both located in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, south of Orikhiv.[42]

By 10 June, Ukrainian forces made further gains south and west of Lobkove, and west of Novopokrovka.[43] On June 11, the ISW reported that the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army alongside the Tsar’s Wolves milita, and the South Ossetian units: "Storm Ossetia” and "Alania” where unable to hold onto Lobkove and withdrew, leaving the village in Ukrainian hands.[5]

Analysis

The Ukrainian counteroffensive drew comparisons to D-Day, with the operation seen as a critical moment in the war.[57][58]

Victory in the counteroffensive would be interpreted by Western leaders as demonstrating that Western military aid to Ukraine was justified and that Ukrainian victory was possible, which would encourage Western military aid to continue. Depending on the specific goals of the offensive, victory could weaken Russia's strategic position in the war.[59]

On 9 June, the ISW assessed that there was confusion within the Russian information space as to who was really in charge of the defensive operations. There was speculation that Alexander Romanchuk, Mikhail Teplinsky, Sergey Kuzovlev, or Valery Gerasimov, could all be the district commander, with the ISW assessing that there are "likely overlapping" commanders. The ISW also assessed that Ukraine had not committed its full reserves and western equipment to the counteroffensive as of 9 June, and that material losses sustained up to that point would not necessarily impact the course of the counteroffensive.[42]

On 10 June 2023, the British Ministry of Defence stated, "In some areas, Ukrainian forces [had] likely made good progress and penetrated the first line of Russian defences. In others, Ukrainian progress [had] been slower."[60]

Western supplied equipment including night vision may be giving Ukrainian forces "tactical advantages" during night fighting. According to Russian sources cited by ISW. This encourages more nighttime attacks. While Russian forces maintain an edge in Electronic Warfare allowing them to disrupt Ukrainian communications. Especially between ground and air units. While further reducing their usage of drones and increasing their rate of attrition.[61]

See also

References

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