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2015 Valencian regional election

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2015 Valencian regional election
← 2011 24 May 2015 2019 →
All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes
50 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered3,609,265 1.7%
Turnout2,510,459 (69.6%)
0.6 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Alberto Fabra Ximo Puig Mónica Oltra
Party PP PSPV–PSOE Compromís
Leader since 28 July 2011 31 March 2012 31 January 2015
Leader's seat Valencia Castellón Valencia
Last election 55 seats, 49.4% 33 seats, 28.0% 6 seats, 7.2%
Seats won 31 23 19
Seat change 24 10 13
Popular vote 658,612 509,098 456,823
Percentage 26.6% 20.6% 18.5%
Swing 22.8 pp 7.4 pp 11.3 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Carolina Punset Antonio Montiel Ignacio Blanco
Party C's Podemos/Podem Acord Ciutadà
Leader since 2 February 2015 14 February 2015 8 November 2014
Leader's seat Valencia Valencia Valencia (lost)
Last election Did not contest Did not contest 5 seats, 7.6%[a]
Seats won 13 13 0
Seat change 13 13 5
Popular vote 309,121 282,389 106,917
Percentage 12.5% 11.4% 4.3%
Swing New party New party 3.3 pp
Constituency results map for the Corts Valencianes
President before election

Alberto Fabra
PP

Elected President

Ximo Puig
PSPV–PSOE

The 2015 Valencian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

While incumbent President Alberto Fabra's People's Party (PP) remained as the party with the most votes, it lost 24 seats and 22 percentage points compared to its 2011 result, losing the absolute majority it had held in the Corts since 1999. This result was attributed to the party's management of the economic crisis, as well as the various corruption scandals that affected the PP throughout the entire 2011–2015 period, some of which were unveiled just weeks before the election. The Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) came second, with 23 seats, 10 fewer than in 2011 and the worst electoral result in its history.

Three other parties achieved representation, of which two were newly formed since 2011: Compromís, with 19 seats, Podemos and C's. EUPV, the main party in a coalition of other forces known as Acord Ciutadà (Valencian for "Citizen Agreement"), did not reach the 5% minimum threshold to achieve representation and therefore lost all of its seats in the Corts. Turnout was, at 69.6%, the lowest since 1999. Subsequently, Alberto Fabra announced he would retire from his party's leadership in the region after a PSPV–Compromís coalition with Podemos' support expelled the PP from the regional government after 20 years in power. Ximo Puig from the PSPV–PSOE was elected as new regional President.

Overview

Electoral system

The Corts Valencianes were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Valencian autonomous community, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Valencian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Corts was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Valencians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Template:Lang-es).[2]

The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in any given province did not exceed three times that of any other).[1][3]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Corts constituency was entitled the following seats:[4]

Seats Constituencies
40 Valencia
35 Alicante
24 Castellón

Election date

The term of the Corts Valencianes expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts on Sunday, 21 June 2015.[1][3][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

The Corts Valencianes were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGV, setting the election date for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to convene on 11 June.[4]

Background

The 2011 regional election had resulted in the People's Party (PP) increasing its absolute majority despite losing votes, thanks to the collapse of the Socialist Party of the Valencian Country vote, which scored its worst historical result up to that point. However, after 16 years of uninterrupted rule, corruption scandals involving the PP began to erupt. Two months after the election, President Francisco Camps resigned because of his alleged implication in the Gürtel corruption scandal,[6] being replaced as president of the Valencian Government by Alberto Fabra.[7] The following years saw the unveiling of a series of corruption scandals that rocked the PP, involving party deputies,[8] mayors,[9] local councillors,[10] two Corts's speakers[11] and former regional president José Luis Olivas.[12] At one point, about 20% of the party members in the Corts Valencianes—11 out of 55—were involved in various corruption cases; a joke popularized at the time said that they would become the third political force in the Corts Valencianes, only behind PP and PSOE, if they were to form their own parliamentary group.[13] The regional party leadership also had to cope with accusations of illegal financing,[14] as well as possible embezzlement offences in the additional costs incurred in the Formula 1 project and Pope Benedict XVI's 2006 visit to Valencia.[15][16]

At the same time, the regional government had to deal with the effects of an ongoing financial crisis. Despite the regional decision to ask for a bailout from the central government headed by Mariano Rajoy in July 2012,[17] its economic situation remained severe. Fabra's government had to close down RTVV, the regional public television broadcasting channel, because of financing issues, a decision which was met with widespread protests.[18][19]

The 2014 European Parliament election resulted in enormous losses for the PP, which, in the largest Valencian cities, lost almost half of its votes in percentage terms compared to the previous elections. Both the economic crisis and corruption scandals helped hasten the party's decline, which had already seen support drop in opinion polls since 2011. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party found itself unable to gain any of the PP's lost support and lost votes too, to the benefit of until then minority parties such as United Left of the Valencian Country (EUPV), Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), Citizens (C's), Compromís or the newly created Podemos party.[20]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Alberto Fabra Conservatism
Christian democracy 		49.42% 55 checkY
PSPV–PSOE
List
 Ximo Puig Social democracy 28.04% 33 ☒N
EUPV–EV–
ERPV–AS
List
 Ignacio Blanco Valencian nationalism
Democratic socialism
Green politics 		7.65%[a] 5 ☒N
Compromís
List
 Mónica Oltra Valencian nationalism
Eco-socialism
Green politics 		7.19% 6 ☒N
Podemos/
Podem
List
 Antonio Montiel Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		New party ☒N
C's
List
 Carolina Punset Liberalism New party ☒N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a general election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Corts Valencianes election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 658,612 26.61 –22.81 31 –24
Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) 509,098 20.57 –7.47 23 –10
Commitment Coalition: Bloc–Initiative–Greens (Compromís) 456,823 18.46 +11.27 19 +13
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 309,121 12.49 New 13 +13
We Can (Podemos/Podem) 282,389 11.41 New 13 +13
Citizen Agreement (EUPV–EV–ERPV–AS)1 106,917 4.32 –3.33 0 –5
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 28,754 1.16 –1.32 0 ±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 19,781 0.80 +0.42 0 ±0
Let's Win Valencian Country (Ganemos) 18,322 0.74 New 0 ±0
Vox (Vox) 10,336 0.42 New 0 ±0
Spain 2000 (E–2000) 7,509 0.30 –0.20 0 ±0
We Are Valencian (SOMVAL) 6,835 0.28 New 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 3,569 0.14 +0.09 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 2,925 0.12 –0.02 0 ±0
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) 2,906 0.12 New 0 ±0
Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD) 2,510 0.10 New 0 ±0
Democratic People (Poble) 2,210 0.09 New 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 1,806 0.07 New 0 ±0
Together (Junts)2 1,476 0.06 +0.03 0 ±0
United for Valencia (UxV) 1,438 0.06 –0.09 0 ±0
Forward (Avant) 1,322 0.05 New 0 ±0
Democratic Forum (FDEE) 1,310 0.05 New 0 ±0
Libertarian Party (P–LIB) 1,219 0.05 New 0 ±0
The Greens–The Ecologist Alternative (EV–AE) 1,149 0.05 New 0 ±0
Citizen Hope (EsC) 1,129 0.05 New 0 ±0
The National Coalition (LCN) 1,106 0.04 New 0 ±0
Republican Social Movement (MSR) 603 0.02 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 34,083 1.38 –1.10
Total 2,475,258 99 ±0
Valid votes 2,475,258 98.60 +0.23
Invalid votes 35,201 1.40 –0.23
Votes cast / turnout 2,510,459 69.56 –0.63
Abstentions 1,098,806 30.44 +0.63
Registered voters 3,609,265
Sources[22][23][24]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
 
 26.61%
PSPV–PSOE
 
 20.57%
Compromís
 
 18.46%
C's
 
 12.49%
Podemos/Podem
 
 11.41%
AC
 
 4.32%
UPyD
 
 1.16%
Others
 
 3.61%
Blank ballots
 
 1.38%
Seats
PP
 
 31.31%
PSPV–PSOE
 
 23.23%
Compromís
 
 19.19%
C's
 
 13.13%
Podemos/Podem
 
 13.13%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PP PSPV Compr. C's Podemos
% S % S % S % S % S
Alicante 27.7 11 22.7 9 12.5 5 14.1 5 12.2 5
Castellón 29.5 8 24.0 6 14.3 4 11.1 3 11.6 3
Valencia 25.3 12 18.6 8 22.9 10 11.8 5 10.9 5
Total 26.6 31 20.6 23 18.5 19 12.5 13 11.4 13
Sources[23][24]

Aftermath

Further information: First government of Ximo Puig
Investiture
Ximo Puig (PSPV)
Ballot → 25 June 2015
Required majority → 50 out of 99 checkY
Yes
50 / 99
No
  • • PP (31)
  • • C's (13)
44 / 99
Abstentions
5 / 99
Absentees
0 / 99
Sources[24]

Notes

  1. ^ a b Results for EUPV (5.90%, 5 seats), VyE (1.30%, 0 seats) and ERPV (0.45%, 0 seats) in the 2011 election.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Estudio sociológico de los votantes a las Elecciones Autonómicas 2015". Valencian Generalitat (in Spanish). 24 May 2015. Archived from the original on 25 May 2015. Retrieved 24 May 2015.
  2. ^ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  3. ^ "Ciudadanos empataría con el PSPV en unas generales". El Mundo (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  4. ^ "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  5. ^ "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  6. ^ "Comuniadad Valenciana: Un frente de izquierdas podría desbancar del poder a los populares". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  7. ^ "Comunidad Valenciana. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-04.
  8. ^ "Alberto Fabra revive en la Comunidad Valenciana, pero Albert Rivera decide". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
  9. ^ "Intención de voto Comunidad Valenciana. Gráfico". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
  10. ^ "Alberto Fabra gana pero tendrá difícil gobernar". Encuestamos (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original on 10 June 2015.
  11. ^ "El PP se acerca pero EU aún da la mayoría a la izquierda en la Comunidad Valenciana". El Mundo (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
  12. ^ "Tracking electoral". El Mundo (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
  13. ^ "El PP perderá el poder en Valencia por la fuga de más del 38% de su electorado autonómico". Público (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
  14. ^ "Ciudadanos erosiona al PP a la carrera y amenaza con superar al PSPV". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 9 May 2015.
  15. ^ a b c d "Mayoría absoluta para la izquierda". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
  16. ^ "El PP pierde la mayoría absoluta en Valencia y dependería de Ciudadanos para gobernar". Telecinco (in Spanish). 15 May 2015.
  17. ^ "El PP pierde 22 escaños en la Comunidad Valenciana y necesitará a Ciudadanos". ABC (in Spanish). 15 May 2015.
  18. ^ "Esquerra Unida araña un escaño al PSPV mientras el PP se queda en 31". El Mundo (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
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  73. ^ "El terremoto Bárcenas también alcanza a Alberto Fabra". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 16 July 2013.
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  75. ^ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  76. ^ "Perderían la mayoría absoluta en Madrid, Cantabria y Valencia". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
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  79. ^ "Un sondeo de Compromís augura que habrá batalla y da la victoria al 'tripartito' y Rita Barberá cae más que Fabra a la espera del caso Nóos" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 April 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 12 May 2013.
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  87. ^ "El PSPV continúa perdiendo apoyos en el momento de mayor desgaste del PP". ABC (in Spanish). 30 September 2012.
  88. ^ "Comunidad Valenciana: datos de intención y recuerdo de voto". El País (in Spanish). 21 April 2015.
  89. ^ "Clima Político en la Comunidad Valenciana". El País (in Spanish). 10 October 2014.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 5/1982, de 1 de julio, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad Valenciana (Organic Law 1) (in Spanish). 1 July 1982. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ a b c Ley 1/1987, de 31 de marzo, Electoral Valenciana (Law 2) (in Spanish). 31 March 1987. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  4. ^ a b "Decreto 4/2015, de 30 de marzo, del presidente de la Generalitat, de disolución de les Corts y de convocatoria de elecciones a las mismas" (PDF). Diari Oficial de la Generalitat Valenciana (in Spanish) (7496): 9365–9366. 31 March 2015. ISSN 0212-8195.
  5. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  6. ^ Pérez, Iván; Álvarez, Francisco; Hernández, Marisol (21 July 2011). "Francisco Camps dimite". El Mundo (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  7. ^ Prats, Jaime (21 July 2011). "Alberto Fabra sustituye a Camps al frente del PP y de la Generalitat". El País (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  8. ^ Ferrandis, Joaquín (29 June 2013). "La presencia de un 20% de diputados imputados divide al PP valenciano". El País (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  9. ^ Molto, Daniel (17 September 2014). "El juez imputa de nuevo a Castedo por beneficiar al constructor Ortiz". El Mundo (in Spanish). Alicante. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  10. ^ Ortega, Lorena; Esquitino, Rubén (10 January 2015). "El PP tiene medio centenar de imputados en cargos municipales". El País (in Spanish). Castellón / Alicante. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  11. ^ Nieto, Juan (10 November 2014). "Juan Cotino, imputado por los contratos con Gürtel para la visita del Papa". El Mundo (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  12. ^ "Olivas, imputado por delito fiscal en el asesoramiento de Vicente Cotino". El Mundo (in Spanish). Valencia. EFE. 2 June 2014. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  13. ^ Balín, Mateo (9 June 2013). "Los imputados del PP valenciano serían la tercera fuerza en las Cortes". Hoy (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  14. ^ Zafra, Ignacio (16 December 2014). "El juez procesa a 19 personas por la financiación ilegal del PP valenciano". El País (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  15. ^ Giménez, Miguel (11 August 2014). "La corrupción en el PP valenciano, de la A a la Z". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  16. ^ Ferrandis, Joaquín (16 November 2014). "La hoguera valenciana de las corrupciones del PP". El País (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  17. ^ "La Comunitat Valenciana pide el rescate". Público (in Spanish). EFE. 20 July 2012. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  18. ^ Terrasa, Rodrigo (5 November 2013). "Fabra cierra la televisión valenciana tras tumbar la Justicia el ERE". El Mundo (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  19. ^ Maroto, Voro (4 December 2013). "Las protestas por el cierre de Canal 9 cercan a Alberto Fabra y aíslan al PP". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  20. ^ Ferrandis, Joaquín; Moltó, Ezequiel; Ortega, Lorena (25 May 2014). "El PP se desploma en las grandes ciudades y da la llave a los minoritarios". El País (in Spanish). Valencia / Alicante / Castellón. Retrieved 16 January 2022.
  21. ^ "Informe de los resultados recogidos en el sondeo de opinión para las Elecciones Municipales de Alboraya, L'Eliana y Gandia, y autonómicas de la Comunidad Valenciana. Realizado por la Unidad de Investigación" (PDF). GIPEyOP (in Spanish). 15 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2015-05-29.
  22. ^ "Electoral Results. Electoral Data - Regional Election: 2015". www.cortsvalencianes.es (in Spanish). Valencian Government. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  23. ^ a b "Corts Valencianes election results, 24 May 2015" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of the Valencian Community. 9 June 2015. Retrieved 30 September 2017.
  24. ^ a b c "Eleccions a les Corts Valencianes (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 September 2017.
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