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Revision as of 17:56, 2 June 2024

2024 United Kingdom general election
United Kingdom
← 2019 4 July 2024
All 650 seats in the House of Commons.
Figures below show state of
the Commons at dissolution.
326 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Seats
Conservative Rishi Sunak 345
Labour Keir Starmer 206
SNP John Swinney[a] 43
Liberal Democrats Ed Davey 15
DUP Gavin Robinson 7
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald[b] 7
Plaid Cymru Rhun ap Iorwerth[c] 3
SDLP Colum Eastwood 2
Alba Alex Salmond[d] 2
Green Carla Denyer and
Adrian Ramsay 		1
Alliance Naomi Long 1
Workers Party George Galloway 1
Reform UK Richard Tice 1
Independent N/A 15
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle 1
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Prime Minister before Prime Minister after
Rishi Sunak
Conservative		 TBA
TBA

The 2024 United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held on Thursday, 4 July 2024.[1] It will determine the composition of the House of Commons, which determines the Government of the United Kingdom. Significant constituency boundary changes will be in effect, the first such changes since before the 2010 general election. It will be the first UK general election where voter identification is required to vote in person in Great Britain.[e] The general election will be the first since the UK's departure from the European Union on 31 January 2020, which was a major issue in the previous election; it will also be the first to take place under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.

Discussion around the campaign has been focused on the prospect of a change in government, with the opposition Labour Party led by Keir Starmer having a significant lead in polling over the governing Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak. Public opinion in favour of a change in government was reflected in the Conservatives' poor performance at the 2022 and 2023 local elections, where Labour and the Liberal Democrats made gains from Conservatives, often by very wide margins. The parties made further gains in the 2024 local elections, with the Liberal Democrats beating the Conservatives to third place in terms of seats won. Many by-elections were won by their candidates during the parliament. A record number of Conservative MPs are not standing for re-election.[2]

Background

The results of the 2019 general election are given below, alongside the numbers in the House of Commons at dissolution. Seat counts changed through 23 by-elections and a number of defections and suspensions of members from their party that took place throughout the 2019–2024 parliament. There were no vacant seats at dissolution.

This table relates to the composition of the House of Commons after the 2024 UK general election and summarises the changes in party affiliation that took place during the 2024–present Parliament.

Affiliation Members
Elected
in 2024[3] 		Current[4] Differ­ence
Labour[f] 411[g] 402 Decrease 9
Conservative 121 121 Steady
Liberal Democrats 72 72 Steady
SNP 9 9 Steady
Independent 6 15[h] Increase 9
Sinn Féin 7 7 Steady
DUP 5 5 Steady
Reform UK 5 5 Steady
Green (E&W) 4 4 Steady
Plaid Cymru 4 4 Steady
SDLP 2 2 Steady
Alliance 1 1 Steady
TUV 1 1 Steady
UUP 1 1 Steady
Speaker 1 1 Steady
Vacant 0 0 Steady
Total 650 650 Steady
Total voting[i] 639 639 Steady
Majority of voting 181 165[8] Steady
This table:

For full details of changes during the 2024–present Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.

Main articles: Premiership of Boris Johnson, Premiership of Liz Truss, and Premiership of Rishi Sunak

The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson had won a landslide victory in the 2019 general election. The Conservative government implemented the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union on 31 January 2020. Less than two months after the 2019 general election, COVID-19 had reached the UK, and the government introduced measures to reduce its spread, including several legally-enforced lockdowns. The media later reported that there had been social gatherings by the Conservative Party and government staff that contravened these restrictions. Johnson and the then chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, were given fixed penalty notices by the police in April 2022 as a result. Johnson announced his resignation on 7 July 2022, and the leadership election was won by Liz Truss. She announced her resignation as party leader and prime minister on 20 October after the shortest substantive premiership in British history.[9]

Sunak assumed the premiership on 25 October 2022. The Conservative Party lost over 1,000 councillors at the 2023 local elections, while the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats made significant gains. The Conservatives faced further losses in the 2024 local elections. The Conservative Party saw a decrease in their opinion polling. A record number of Conservative MPs decided not to stand again for election.[citation needed]

The SNP also changed leader a number of times, from Nicola Sturgeon (2014–2023) to Humza Yousaf (2023–2024) to John Swinney from 6 May 2024.[10] Sturgeon had received heavier criticism for her positions on gender reforms and resigned the leadership of the SNP, while Yousaf resigned the leadership of the SNP amid a government crisis following his termination of a power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens. Jeffrey Donaldson was leader of the DUP from 2021, but resigned 29 March 2024 after being charged with historical sex offences.[11] Gavin Robinson took over as interim leader.[12][13]

Keir Starmer won the Labour Party's leadership election. In March 2022, Labour abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would be an unlawful practice under the Equality Act 2010, since the majority of Labour MPs were now women.[14]

In March 2024, Reform UK announced an electoral pact with the Northern Irish unionist party TUV.[15][16] Reform UK also announced a pact with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a minor socially conservative party.[17]

Reading of the dissolution proclamation on the steps of the Royal Exchange.

On 22 May 2024, Sunak advised the King to order the dissolution of Parliament and called a general election for 4 July 2024.[18][19] The election will be the first to take place under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, as well as the first under the reign of Charles III. The general election will also be the first since the UK's withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit having been a major issue in the previous election), and the first July general election since 1945.[20]

Electoral system

See also: Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 and Politics of the United Kingdom

General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the 15-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain.[21] These changes were included in the Elections Act 2022.

Boundary reviews

Main article: List of United Kingdom Parliament constituencies (2024–present) by region

The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, commenced in 2011 but temporarily stopped in January 2013. Following the 2015 general election, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process in April 2016.[22][23][24] The four commissions submitted their final recommendations to the Secretary of State on 5 September 2018[25][26] and made their reports public a week later.[27][28][29][25] However, the proposals were never put forward for approval before the calling of the general election held on 12 December 2019, and in December 2020 the reviews were formally abandoned under the Schedule to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.[30] A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the 2018 boundaries suggested the changes would have been beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.[31][32]

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.[33][34] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020[35] and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.[36][37][38][39] They were required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023.[30] Once the reports have been laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals must be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament. The boundary changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November 2023[40] and came into force on 29 November 2023,[41] meaning that the election will be contested on these new boundaries.[42]

Notional 2019 results

Main article: Notional results of the 2019 United Kingdom general election by 2024 constituency
The notional results of the 2019 election, if they had taken place under boundaries recommended by the Sixth Periodic Review.

The election will be contested under new constituency boundaries established by the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2019 were unchanged, but regrouped by new constituency boundaries.[43] Notional results in the UK are always estimated, usually with the assistance of local election results, because vote counts at parliamentary elections in the UK do not yield figures at any level more specific than that of the whole constituency.[44]

In England, seats will be redistributed towards Southern England, away from Northern England, due to the different rates of population growth. North West England and North East England will lose two seats each whereas South East England will gain seven seats and South West England will gain three seats.[45] Based on historical voting patterns, this is expected to help the Conservatives.[46] Based on these new boundaries, different parties would have won several constituencies with unchanged names but changed boundaries in 2019. For example, the Conservatives would have won Wirral West and Leeds North West instead of the Labour Party, but Labour would have won Pudsey and Heywood & Middleton instead of the Conservatives. Westmorland and Lonsdale, the constituency represented by former Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron, is now notionally a Conservative seat.

In Scotland, 57 MPs will be elected, down from the 59 in 2019, with the following notional partisan composition of Scotland's parliamentary delegation:[47] The Scottish National Party would remain steady on 48 seats, despite two of their constituencies being dissolved. The Scottish Conservatives' seat count of six would likewise remain unchanged. Scottish Labour would have retained Edinburgh South, the sole constituency they won in 2019. Had the 2019 general election occurred with the new boundaries in effect, the Scottish Liberal Democrats would have only won two seats (Edinburgh West and Orkney and Shetland), instead of the four they did win that year, as the expanded electorates in the other two would overcome their slender majorities.

Under the new boundaries, Wales will lose eight seats, electing 32 MPs instead of the 40 they elected in 2019. Welsh Labour would have won 18 instead of the 22 MPs they elected in 2019, and the Welsh Conservatives 12 instead of 14. Due to the abolition and merging of rural constituencies in West Wales, Plaid Cymru would have only won two seats instead of four. Nonetheless, the boundaries are expected to cause difficulty for the Conservatives as more pro-Labour areas are added to some of their safest seats.[48]

In Northern Ireland, the notional results are identical to the actual results of the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland.

Notional 2019 results on 2023 boundaries[44]
Party MPs
2019 actual result 2019 notional result Change
Conservative 365 372 Increase 7
Labour 202 200 Decrease 2
SNP 48 48 Steady
Liberal Democrats 11 8 Decrease 3
DUP 8 8 Steady
Sinn Féin 7 7 Steady
Plaid Cymru 4 2 Decrease 2
SDLP 2 2 Steady
Green 1 1 Steady
Alliance 1 1 Steady
Speaker 1 1 Steady

Date of the election

Originally the next election was scheduled to take place on 2 May 2024 under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.[j] At the 2019 general election, in which the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the party's manifesto contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.[50] In December 2020, the government duly published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.[51] This entered into force on 24 March 2022. Thus, the prime minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met." The Electoral Commission confirmed that the 2019 Parliament would, therefore, have to be dissolved, at the latest, by 17 December 2024, and that the next general election had to take place no later than 28 January 2025.[52][53]

With no election date fixed in law, there was speculation as to when Rishi Sunak, as prime minister, would call an election. On 18 December 2023, Sunak told journalists that the election would take place in 2024 rather than January 2025.[1] On 4 January, he first suggested the general election would probably be in the second half of 2024.[54] On 22 May 2024, following much speculation through the day,[55][56][57] Sunak confirmed the election would be held on 4 July.[58]

Timetable

Key dates[59][60]
Date Day Event
22 May Wednesday Prime Minister Rishi Sunak requests a dissolution of parliament from King Charles III and announces the date of polling day for the general election as 4 July.
24 May Friday Last sitting day of business. Parliament prorogued.
25 May Saturday Beginning of pre-election period (also known as purdah).[61]
30 May Thursday Dissolution of parliament and official start of the campaign. Royal Proclamation issued dissolving the 2019 Parliament, summoning the 2024 Parliament and setting the date for its first meeting.[62]
7 June Friday Nominations of candidates close (4 pm). Publication of statement of persons nominated, including notice of poll and situation of polling stations (5 pm).
13 June Thursday Deadline to register to vote at 5 pm in Northern Ireland.
18 June Tuesday Deadline to register to vote at 5 pm in Great Britain.
19 June Wednesday Deadline to apply for a postal vote.
26 June Wednesday Deadline to register for a proxy vote at 5 pm. Exemptions applied for emergencies.
4 July Thursday Polling Day – polls open from 7 am to 10 pm.
4 July–
5 July 		Thursday–
Friday 		Results announced for most or all constituencies.
5 July Friday End of pre-election period (also known as purdah).
9 July Tuesday First meeting of the new Parliament of the United Kingdom, for the formal election of Speaker of the House of Commons. Over the next few days, MPs will be sworn in.
17 July Wednesday State Opening of Parliament and King's Speech.

Campaign

On the afternoon of 22 May 2024, Sunak announced that the general election would be held on 4 July 2024, surprising his own MPs.[63] The calling of the election was welcomed by Keir Starmer, Leader of the Opposition and the Labour Party,[64] and by Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats.[65] Sunak's announcement received significant media coverage for taking place during heavy rain at a lectern outside 10 Downing Street, without the use of any umbrella or shelter from the rain.[66][67][68][69][70] The song "Things Can Only Get Better" (frequently used by the Labour Party, then led by Tony Blair, in their successful 1997 campaign) was unexpectedly played by the political activist Steve Bray as Sunak announced the date of the general election.[71][72][73] This led to the song entering the top 10 on the iTunes Charts within 24 hours.[74]

At the beginning of the campaign, the Labour Party had a significant lead in polling over the Conservative Party.[75][76] Polling would also show Labour doing well against the SNP in Scotland.[77] In 2023, Starmer set out five missions for a Labour government, targeting issues such as economic growth, health, clean energy, crime, and education. Starmer has also emphasised the importance of eliminating antisemitism in the Labour Party.[citation needed]

On 23 May, Sunak said that before the election there would be no flights to Rwanda for those seeking asylum.[78] Immigration figures were published for 2023 showing immigration remained at historically high levels, but had fallen compared to 2022.[79] Nigel Farage, the former leader of Reform UK, said that he would not stand as a candidate in the election, while the party said it would stand in 630 seats across England, Scotland and Wales.[80] Ed Davey launched the Liberal Democrat campaign in Cheltenham in Gloucestershire.[81] The SNP campaign launch the same day was overshadowed over a dispute around leader John Swinney's support for Michael Matheson and developments in Operation Branchform.[82] Starmer launched the Labour Party campaign in Gillingham alongside Angela Rayner at the Priestfield Stadium the home of Gillingham Football Club[83]

On 24 May, the Conservatives proposed setting up a Royal Commission to consider a form of mandatory national service.[84] Jeremy Corbyn announced on 24 May he was running as an independent against a Labour candidate, and was thus expelled from the party.[85] On 27 May, Starmer made a keynote speech on security and other issues.[86][87]

On 28 May, the Conservatives pledged a "Triple Lock Plus" where the personal income tax allowance for pensioners would always stay higher than the state pension.[88] Labour criticised the policy as being uncosted.[89] Ed Davey went paddleboarding on Lake Windermere in the marginal constituency of Westmorland and Lonsdale, highlighting the release of sewage in waterways.[90] He pledged to abolish Ofwat and introduce a new water regulator to tackle the situation, in addition to proposing a ban on bonuses for chief executives of water companies.[91] Starmer was in West Sussex and emphasised his small town roots in first big campaign speech.[92]

On 29 May, Labour's Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting promised a 18-week NHS waiting target within five years of a Labour government.[93] On the same day the junior doctors announced new strike days in the days before the election.[94]

Starmer denied that Diane Abbott had been blocked as a candidate amid differing reports.[95] Abbott had been elected as a Labour MP, but had been suspended from the parliamentary party for a brief period. There was controversy about further Labour Party candidate selections, with several candidates on the left of the party being excluded.[96]

On 30 May, both the Conservatives and Labour ruled out any rise in value-added tax.[97] The SNPs Màiri McAllan claimed that only the SNP offers Scotland a route back into the European Union making Pro-Europeanism part of the party's campaign.[98] Reform UK proposed an immigration tax on British firms who employ foreign workers, and also ruled out any pacts with other parties.[99] The Green Party campaign was launched in Bristol.[100] Plaid Cymru launched their campaign in Bangor.[101]

On 1 June, Labour and the Conservatives unveiled their campaign buses.[citation needed] Labour promised to cut net migration.[102]

Media coverage

On 23 May, Sky News announced that their election night coverage would be hosted by Kay Burley and Sophy Ridge, with analysis from Andy Burnham and Ruth Davidson.[103][104] On 24 May, Channel 4 announced that their coverage would be hosted by Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Emily Maitlis, with analysis from Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart.[104][105] On 28 May, BBC News announced that their coverage would be hosted by Clive Myrie and Laura Kuenssberg, with analysis from Sir John Curtice, Jeremy Vine and Reeta Chakrabarti.[104][106]

Debates

← 2019 debates 2024

The Conservatives challenged Keir Starmer to six televised debates.[107] Labour announced that it would not agree to such a proposal, and offered two head-to-head debates—one shown on the BBC, and one shown on ITV; a spokesperson said both networks would offer the greatest audience, and the prospect of any debates on smaller channels would be rejected as it would not be a "valuable use of campaign time".

Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey declared his wish to be included in "any televised debates".[108] Starmer confirmed he would take part in a "leaders' event" hosted by Sky News, in which he would take questions from an audience in Grimsby, and that negotiations were undergoing for Sunak to also attend.[109]

On 29 May it was announced that the first Leaders debate would be hosted by ITV News and titled "Sunak v Starmer: The ITV Debate" with Julie Etchingham as moderator, on Tuesday 4 June.[110] On the same day STV announced the first debate of the Campaign will take place on Monday 3 June with the four leaders of Scottish parties.[111] ITV announced on 31 May a further debate would take place incorporating all the seven main parties.[112] Sky News is hosting a Town hall event on 12 June which will include Starmer.[113]

Endorsements

Main article: Endorsements in the 2024 United Kingdom general election

Newspapers, organisations, and individuals have endorsed parties or individual candidates for the election.

Candidates

Main article: Candidates in the 2024 United Kingdom general election

Details on MPs standing down, MPs deselected or seeking a new constituency, MPs standing under a different political affiliation, former MPs seeking to return to Parliament, MPs changing constituencies, and incumbent MPs standing against each other are in the articles on Candidates in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
Opinion polling for UK general elections
2010 election
Opinion polls
2015 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2017 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2019 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2024 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election § Graphical summaries.[edit]

    • See also

    Notes

    1. ^ Stephen Flynn led the SNP in the House of Commons at dissolution.
    2. ^ Sinn Féin are abstentionists from Parliament. Michelle O'Neill leads Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland.
    3. ^ Liz Saville Roberts led Plaid Cymru in the House of Commons at dissolution.
    4. ^ Neale Hanvey led Alba in the House of Commons at dissolution.
    5. ^ In Northern Ireland, voter ID was already required at elections before it was introduced in the rest of the UK.
    6. ^ Includes 43 MPs sponsored by the Co-operative Party, who are designated Labour and Co-operative.[5]
    7. ^ Some media sources, such as BBC News, listed Labour's total as 412, by including the Speaker (who, to demonstrate his neutrality, had resigned his Labour Party membership on taking office).
    8. ^ Nine were elected as Labour MPs but seven of these have been suspended from the parliamentary party until December 2024. A further MP, Mike Amesbury, was suspended on 27 October 2024. Rosie Duffield resigned from the Labour Party on 28 September 2024. Five Independent MPs form the Independent Alliance technical group.
    9. ^ In the current (2024–present) Parliament, the seven members of Sinn Féin follow a policy of abstentionism. They do not swear into the house, and do not take part in its formal processes (doing so would also compel a by-election).[6] The Speaker and deputy speakers (two Conservative and one Labour) by convention exercise only a casting vote.[7]
    10. ^ The Fixed-term Parliaments Act automatically scheduled general elections for the first Thursday in May of the fifth year after the previous general election.[49] The previous election was held in December 2019.

    References

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    5. ^ "About: Members of Parliament". Co-operative Party. Retrieved 10 May 2024.
    6. ^ Kelly, Conor (19 August 2019). "Understanding Sinn Féin's Abstention from the UK Parliament". E-International Relations. Retrieved 16 December 2019.
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