2024 United States Senate election in Arizona: Difference between revisions
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*[[Yassamin Ansari]], [[Phoenix city council]]or (2021–present)<ref name=romero /> |
*[[Yassamin Ansari]], [[Phoenix city council]]or (2021–present)<ref name=romero /> |
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*[[Kate Gallego]], [[Mayor of Phoenix]] (2019–present) ''(candidate's ex-wife)''<ref name = despite>{{Cite web |title=Ruben Gallego gets Senate endorsement from his ex-wife, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego |url=https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/18/phoenix-mayor-kate-gallego-endorses-ruben-gallego-for-senate/71955378007/ |access-date=December 18, 2023 |date=December 18, 2023 |website=[[The Arizona Republic]] |author=Gersony, Laura |language=en-US}}</ref> |
*[[Kate Gallego]], [[Mayor of Phoenix]] (2019–present) ''(candidate's ex-wife)''<ref name = despite>{{Cite web |title=Ruben Gallego gets Senate endorsement from his ex-wife, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego |url=https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/18/phoenix-mayor-kate-gallego-endorses-ruben-gallego-for-senate/71955378007/ |access-date=December 18, 2023 |date=December 18, 2023 |website=[[The Arizona Republic]] |author=Gersony, Laura |language=en-US}}</ref> |
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*Jorge Maldonado, Mayor of Nogales, Arizona |
*Jorge Maldonado, [[Nogales, Arizona|Mayor of Nogales]], Arizona <ref>https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/3067999/arizona-border-mayor-endorses-gallego-senate/</ref> |
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*[[Regina Romero]], [[List of mayors of Tucson, Arizona|mayor]] of [[Tucson, Arizona|Tucson]] (2019–present)<ref name=romero>{{Cite web |url=https://www.kgun9.com/news/local-news/mayor-regina-romero-endorses-ruben-gallego-for-u-s-senate |title=Mayor Regina Romero endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate |last=Fernández |first=Caleb J. |website=[[KGUN-TV]] 9 |language=en-US |date=November 13, 2023 |access-date=November 13, 2023}}</ref> |
*[[Regina Romero]], [[List of mayors of Tucson, Arizona|mayor]] of [[Tucson, Arizona|Tucson]] (2019–present)<ref name=romero>{{Cite web |url=https://www.kgun9.com/news/local-news/mayor-regina-romero-endorses-ruben-gallego-for-u-s-senate |title=Mayor Regina Romero endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate |last=Fernández |first=Caleb J. |website=[[KGUN-TV]] 9 |language=en-US |date=November 13, 2023 |access-date=November 13, 2023}}</ref> |
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*[[Corey Woods (Tempe)|Corey Woods]], mayor of [[Tempe, Arizona|Tempe]] (2020–present)<ref>{{cite news |title=Kari Lake, Still Refusing to Accept Defeat in One Race, Teases Arizona Senate Run |work=The New York Times |date=February 3, 2023 |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/us/politics/kari-lake-arizona-senate.html |last1=Bender |first1=Michael C. |access-date=March 2, 2023}}</ref> |
*[[Corey Woods (Tempe)|Corey Woods]], mayor of [[Tempe, Arizona|Tempe]] (2020–present)<ref>{{cite news |title=Kari Lake, Still Refusing to Accept Defeat in One Race, Teases Arizona Senate Run |work=The New York Times |date=February 3, 2023 |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/us/politics/kari-lake-arizona-senate.html |last1=Bender |first1=Michael C. |access-date=March 2, 2023}}</ref> |
Revision as of 21:02, 3 July 2024
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Elections in Arizona |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Primary elections will take place on July 30, 2024.[1]
Incumbent first-term independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with roughly 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent in April 2023.[2] However, in March 2024, Sinema announced that she would not run for a second term.[3] U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake are running for the Republican nomination.
Background
The race is generally considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls and ratings have Gallego as the narrow favorite to win.[4][5]
Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a swing state. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship and the state's other U.S. Senate seat, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6-3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House's delegation.[6][7] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[8] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[9]
Independents
Candidates
Declined
- Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)[3]
Endorsements
- U.S. senators
- Lisa Murkowski, Alaska (2002–present) (Republican)[10]
- Individuals
- Meghan McCain, television personality and daughter of former U.S. Senator John McCain (Republican)[11]
- Organizations
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Kyrsten Sinema | $17,047,387 | $7,065,565 | $10,153,343 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[13] |
Democratic primary
Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[14] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.[15] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[16] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[17]
Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.[2]
Candidates
Presumptive nominee
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2015–present)[18]
Declined
- Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present)[19] (endorsed Ruben Gallego, her ex-husband)[20]
- Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018)[21] (running for re-election)[22]
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- Hillary Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of State (2009–2013)[23]
- U.S. senators
- Dennis DeConcini, Arizona (1977–1995)[24]
- Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)[25]
- Chuck Schumer, New York (1999–present)[26]
- U.S. representatives
- Ron Barber, AZ-02 (2012–2015)[27]
- Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)[28]
- Dan Goldman, NY-10 (2023–present)[29]
- Raúl Grijalva, AZ-07 (2003–present)[30]
- Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-02 (2009–2011, 2013–2017, 2019–2023)[31]
- Seth Moulton, MA-06 (2015–present)[32]
- Nancy Pelosi, CA-11 (1987–present) and former Speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023)[33]
- Linda Sánchez, CA-38 (2013–present)[34]
- Statewide officials
- Katie Hobbs, Governor of Arizona (2023–present)[35]
- Anna Tovar, Arizona Corporation Commissioner (2021–present)[27]
- State legislators
- Flavio Bravo, state senator from the 26th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)[27]
- Eva Diaz, state senator from the 22nd district (2023–present)[27]
- Mitzi Epstein, Arizona Senate Minority Leader (2023–present) from the 12th district (2023–present)[36]
- Theresa Hatathlie, state senator from the 6th district (2023–present)[27]
- Catherine Miranda, state senator from the 11th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)[27]
- 7 state representatives[27]
- Local officials
- Yassamin Ansari, Phoenix city councilor (2021–present)[27]
- Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present) (candidate's ex-wife)[20]
- Jorge Maldonado, Mayor of Nogales, Arizona [37]
- Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson (2019–present)[27]
- Corey Woods, mayor of Tempe (2020–present)[38]
- Individuals
- Mark Hamill, actor[39]
- Dolores Huerta, labor leader[40]
- Political parties
- Labor unions
- Alliance for Retired Americans[42]
- Arizona AFL-CIO[43]
- Association of Flight Attendants[44]
- Communications Workers of America Arizona State Council[45]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 104[46]
- National Education Association[47]
- United Farm Workers[40]
- United Mine Workers of America[48]
- Organizations
- Brady PAC[49]
- CHC BOLD PAC[34]
- Climate Hawks Vote[50]
- Council for a Livable World[51]
- Democratic Senate Campaign Committee[26]
- End Citizens United[52]
- Feminist Majority PAC[53]
- Giffords[28]
- Human Rights Campaign[54]
- Indivisible[55]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[56]
- Latino Victory Fund[57]
- League of Conservation Voters[58]
- Let America Vote[52]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[59]
- Population Connection Action Fund[60]
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee[61]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[62]
- Sierra Club[63]
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona[64]
- Swing Left[65]
- UnidosUS[66]
- VoteVets[67]
- Tribes
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Ruben Gallego | $20,818,369 | $12,446,226 | $9,648,718 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[13] |
Polling
- Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego |
Alexander Keller |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 571 (LV) | – | 48% | 6% | 6%[b] | 40% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kate Gallego |
Ruben Gallego |
Kathy Hoffman |
Regina Romero |
Kyrsten Sinema |
Greg Stanton |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 74% | – | – | 16% | – | 10% |
– | 66% | – | – | 17% | – | 17% | ||||
OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | 47% | – | – | 24% | – | 29% |
– | – | 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% | ||||
– | – | – | – | 25% | 47% | 28% | ||||
Data for Progress (D)[A] | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 23% | – | 9% | 19% | 13% | 26% |
60% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 15% | ||||
– | 62% | – | – | 23% | – | 15% | ||||
– | – | – | 55% | 26% | – | 19% | ||||
– | – | – | – | 24% | 59% | 17% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ruben Gallego | |||
Total votes |
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022[69]
- Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–present)[70]
- Elizabeth Jean Reye, neuroscientist[71]
Declined
- Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present)[72]
- Doug Ducey, governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[73]
- Abe Hamadeh, former prosecutor in the Maricopa County Attorney's office and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022[74] (running for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)[75]
- Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation, former COO of Thiel Capital, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022[76] (running for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)[77]
- Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor of Arizona in 2022[78]
- Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[79]
Endorsements
- U.S. presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[80]
- U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)[81]
- Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)[82]
- Ted Budd, North Carolina (2023–present)[83]
- John Cornyn, Texas (2002–present)[82]
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)[84]
- Steve Daines, Montana (2015–present)[85]
- Joni Ernst, Iowa (2015–present)[82]
- Bill Hagerty, Tennessee (2021–present)[82]
- Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)[86]
- Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)[82]
- Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)[87]
- Jim Risch, Idaho (2009–present)[88]
- Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)[89]
- John Thune, South Dakota, (2005–present)[26]
- Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)[90]
- J.D. Vance, Ohio (2023–present)[91]
- U.S. representatives
- Jim Banks, IN-03 (2017–present)[92]
- Matt Gaetz, FL-01 (2017–present)[87]
- Brian Mast, FL-21 (2017–present)[93]
- Burgess Owens, UT-04 (2021–present)[94]
- Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)[95]
- Wesley Hunt, TX-38 (2023–present)[96]
- Statewide officials
- Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota (2016–present)[97]
- Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present)[98]
- State senators
- Wendy Rogers, state senator from SD-7 (2021–present)[99]
- Warren Petersen, president of the Arizona Senate (2023–present) from SD-14 (2021–present)[99]
- Organizations
- Citizens United PVF[100]
- Republicans for National Renewal[101]
- National Republican Senatorial Committee[102]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[103]
- Turning Point Action[104]
- Individuals
- Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and former COO of Thiel Capital[105]
- David Bossie, president of Citizens United[100]
- Organizations
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Kari Lake | $5,704,973 | $3,185,568 | $2,519,405 |
Mark Lamb | $1,589,090 | $1,335,475 | $253,615 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[13] |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kari Lake |
Mark Lamb |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights | May 7–14, 2024 | 364 (RV) | ± 5.14% | 46% | 21% | 9% | 25% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 26% | 7% | 12% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 384 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 54% | 21% | 9%[c] | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Abe Hamadeh |
Kari Lake |
Mark Lamb |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
Brian Wright |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | – | 40% | 14% | – | 10% | – | 4% | – | 33% |
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | 42% | 11% | 2% | 7% | – | 2% | – | 28% |
J.L. Partners | April 10–12, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 4% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 10% | – | 2% | 29% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kari Lake | |||
Republican | Mark Lamb | |||
Republican | Elizabeth Jean Reye | |||
Total votes |
Green primary
Candidates
Declared
- Eduardo Heredia-Quintana (write-in), chair of the Pima County Green Party[107]
- Arturo Hernandez[71]
- Michael Norton, nonprofit executive[108]
Endorsements
- Political parties
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Michael Norton | $37,501 | $509 | $36,991 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[13] |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Eduardo Heredia-Quintana (write-in) | |||
Green | Arturo Hernandez | |||
Green | Michael Norton | |||
Total votes |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[5] | Lean D (flip) | May 17, 2024 |
Inside Elections[4] | Tilt D (flip) | May 9, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[109] | Lean D (flip) | April 17, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[110] | Tossup | June 8, 2024 |
Elections Daily[111] | Lean D (flip) | May 17, 2024 |
CNalysis[112] | Tossup | November 21, 2023 |
Polling
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[C] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Rasmussen Reports (R) | June 11–13, 2024 | 750 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[D] |
May 28 – June 4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University |
May 19–21, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | 18% |
501 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 13% | ||
CBS News/YouGov | May 10–16, 2024 | 1,214 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Noble Predictive Insights | May 7–14, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
BSG (R)/ GS Strategy Group (D)[E] |
May 6–13, 2024 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
New York Times/ Siena College |
April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 626 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
626 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% | ||
Data Orbital | April 27–29, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
Emerson College/The Hill | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
RABA Research | April 9, 2024 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 28% | 36%[d] |
Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Emerson College[C] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
J.L. Partners (R)[F] | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 44% | 46% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[H] | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 35% | 20% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | 24% |
Normington Petts (D)[J] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | December 21, 2022 | 650 (V) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Eduardo Heredia–Quintana
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Eduardo Heredia- Quintana (G) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Star Opinion Research[K] | June 17–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 38% | 9% | 13% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 33% | 37% | 21% | 2%[e] | 7% |
Emerson College[C] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | 21% | – | 13% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 31% | 23% | – | 12% |
J.L. Partners (R)[F] | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 13% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 35% | 17% | – | 12% |
VCreek/AMG (R)[L] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 1%[f] | 7% |
Tulchin Research (D)[M] | November 13–20, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 34% | 17% | 6%[g] | 4% |
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 33% | 29% | – | – |
Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 37% | 15% | – | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[H] | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 41% | 37% | 17% | – | 5% |
National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 37% | 19% | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 36% | 15% | – | 8% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 25% | 26% | – | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 42% | 35% | 14% | – | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 26% | 19% | – | 21% |
Normington Petts (D)[J] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 36% | 24% | – | – |
Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 36% | 14% | – | 19% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | December 21, 2022 | 678 (V) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | – | 6% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Generic independent |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bullfinch Group | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 10% | 8% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/ OH Predictive Insights |
January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
32% | 27% | 17% | 23% | ||||
Normington Petts (D)[J] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 31% | 27% | 5% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 31% | 17% | 11% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 36% | – | 20% |
32% | 24% | 28% | 16% | ||||
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/ OH Predictive Insights |
January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 32% | – | 26% |
33% | 24% | 22% | 21% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Karrin Taylor Robson (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/ OH Predictive Insights |
January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | – | 32% |
31% | 24% | 21% | 25% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Mark Lamb (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | 32% | 0% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 31% | 16% | 13% |
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
36% | 29% | 21% | 15% | ||||
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 36% | – | 24% |
33% | 25% | 24% | 18% | ||||
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 33% | 15% | 9% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 27% | 16% | 14% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Brian Wright (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% |
37% | 25% | 26% | 12% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Bull Moose Project.
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Hill.
- ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NRSC.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i This poll was sponsored by Gallego's campaign
- ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
- ^ Poll conducted for Stand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.
References
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{{cite news}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Alexi McCammond; Eugene Scott (January 23, 2023). "Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race". Axios.
Despite speculation, Phoenix Mayor (and Gallego's ex-wife) Kate Gallego told Axios she does not intend to run for the Arizona Senate seat or for Ruben's House seat.
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- ^ Cathey, Libby (October 10, 2023). "Kari Lake launches Arizona Senate campaign after narrow gubernatorial loss". ABC News. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
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- ^ a b "Candidate Nominations and Petitions filed". Arizona Secretary of State. March 30, 2024.
- ^ Hansen, Ronald (March 26, 2023). "Which Republicans will run for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat? What we know". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on March 26, 2023.
Ciscomani told The Republic recently that he was still learning his way around the U.S. Capitol as a freshman in the House and denied an interest in running for the Senate next year.
- ^ Al Weaver (December 18, 2022). "Why the GOP has Ducey at the top of its Senate candidate wish list". The Hill.
Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
- ^ Manu Raju; Alayna Treene (April 10, 2023). "Senate Republicans confront 2024 primary challenges and Trump's influence". CNN Politics.
Abe Hamadeh, formerly the Republican nominee for Arizona attorney general, is also weighing a run.
- ^ "Arizona Rep. Debbie Lesko says she won't seek reelection, Abe Hamadeh to run for her seat". KTVK. October 17, 2023. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
- ^ Collins, Eliza (August 30, 2023). "Blake Masters Plans to Enter Race for Kyrsten Sinema's Senate Seat". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved August 30, 2023.
- ^ Gersony, Laura (October 26, 2023). "Arizona Republican Blake Masters announces run for Debbie Lesko's 8th District seat". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
- ^ "Republican Karrin Taylor Robson says she won't run for Sinema's Senate seat in Arizona". The Hill. May 25, 2023.
- ^ Otterbein, Holly; Everett, Burgess; Mutnick, Ally (February 1, 2023). "Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again". Politico. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
One candidate who has ruled out a run is Kelli Ward, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party. She told POLITICO she was not looking at another Senate bid
- ^ Swan, Jonathan; Haberman, Maggie; Ulloa, Jazmine (October 10, 2023). "Trump Endorses Kari Lake's Senate Run in Arizona". The New York Times. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
- ^ Mutnick, Ally (October 16, 2023). "Kari Lake locks down a key GOP establishment endorsement". POLITICO. Archived from the original on October 16, 2023. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
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Stefanik, R-N.Y., who is the House Republican conference chair, said the Lake endorsement by her political action committee is the first for the Senate this election cycle.
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"Kari Lake is an outsider and fighter who will work to secure the border and put Arizonans First," he added. "I am excited to endorse Kari for the Senate in Arizona to bring much needed change to Washington."
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President Trump wanted Kari to run, and I think she's running a hell of a campaign so far, so I look forward to supporting her.
- ^ Gutierrez, Marco. "Primary Campaign Corner 2024: Candidates". Latinos for America First. Archived from the original on September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
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External links
- Official campaign websites