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2024 United Kingdom general election

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Next United Kingdom general election
← 2019 No Later Than January 2025
All 650 seats in the House of Commons
326 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Chancellor Rishi Sunak (cropped).jpg
Official portrait of Keir Starmer crop 2.jpg
Leader Rishi Sunak Keir Starmer
Party Conservative Labour
Leader since 24 October 2022 4 April 2020
Leader's seat Richmond (Yorks) Holborn and St Pancras
Last election 365 seats, 43.6% 202 seats, 32.1%
Current seats 357 196
Seats needed Steady Increase 130
 
Nicola Sturgeon 2021.jpg
Official portrait of Rt Hon Sir Edward Davey MP crop 2.jpg
Leader Nicola Sturgeon Ed Davey
Party SNP Liberal Democrats
Leader since 14 November 2014 27 August 2020
Leader's seat Did not stand[n 1] Kingston and Surbiton
Last election 48 seats, 3.9% 11 seats, 11.6%
Current seats 44 14
Seats needed Increase 282 Increase 312
Incumbent Prime Minister

Rishi Sunak
Conservative



The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than January 2025, after the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.

Background

The result of the 2019 United Kingdom general election and members in the House of Commons is given below.

This table relates to the composition of the House of Commons after the 2024 UK general election and summarises the changes in party affiliation that took place during the 2024–present Parliament.

Affiliation Members
Elected
in 2024[1] 		Current[2] Differ­ence
Labour[a] 411[b] 403 Decrease 8
Conservative 121 121 Steady
Liberal Democrats 72 72 Steady
SNP 9 9 Steady
Independent 6 14[c] Increase 8
Sinn Féin 7 7 Steady
DUP 5 5 Steady
Reform UK 5 5 Steady
Green (E&W) 4 4 Steady
Plaid Cymru 4 4 Steady
SDLP 2 2 Steady
Alliance 1 1 Steady
TUV 1 1 Steady
UUP 1 1 Steady
Speaker 1 1 Steady
Vacant 0 0 Steady
Total 650 650 Steady
Total voting[d] 639 639 Steady
Majority of voting 181 165[6] Steady
This table:

For full details of changes during the 2024–present Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.

Ahead of this general election, HuffPost reported in March 2022 that the Labour Party abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would become an "unlawful" practice again under the Equality Act 2010.[7]

Electoral system

See also: Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 and Politics of the United Kingdom

General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the fifteen-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain.[8] Provisions for these changes have been enacted in the Elections Act 2022.

Boundary review

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would commence based on retaining 650 seats.[9][10] The review began in January 2021 with the previous relevant legislation having been amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.[11]

The postponed Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600. In April 2016, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process.[12][13][14] A projection by psephologists, such as Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the new boundaries suggested the changes would be beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.[15][16]

Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament. No changes were submitted by the government during the 2017–2019 Parliament.[17] The majority Conservative government manifesto states that this will be implemented before the next general election.

Date of the election

Situation before the repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 introduced fixed-term parliaments to the United Kingdom, with elections scheduled on the first Thursday in May of the fifth year after the previous general election, unless the previous general election took place between 1 January and the first Thursday in May, in which case the election would have taken place on the first Thursday in May of the fourth year after the previous general election.[18]

Removing the power of the monarch, on advice of the prime minister, to dissolve parliament before its five-year maximum length,[18] the act permitted early dissolution if the House of Commons voted by a two-thirds supermajority. Parliament would also have been dissolved if a government had lost a vote of no confidence by a simple majority and a new government had not been formed within 14 days.[19] Alternatively, a bill requiring just a simple majority in both Houses could be introduced to establish in law an earlier date for the election, which is how the date of the previous general election was set in 2019.[20] Under the Act, the next general election would have taken place by no later than Thursday 2 May 2024.[21] Under the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013, Parliament would have been dissolved 25 working days before this date on Tuesday 26 March.[22] Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the Prime Minister might have scheduled polling day up to two months after 2 May, subject to approval by both Houses.

  1. ^ SNP party leader Nicola Sturgeon, a Member of the Scottish Parliament and First Minister of Scotland, participated in some of the main UK-wide televised debates, but did not stand for a Commons seat at this election. Angus Robertson, MP for Moray at the time, was the leader of the SNP delegation to the House of Commons.

Repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act

At the 2019 general election, where the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the manifesto of the party contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act due to "paralysis at a time when the country has needed decisive action".[23] The pledge was confirmed in the first Queen's Speech following the election.[24]

In December 2020, the government published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.[25] In September 2021, Oliver Dowden, the newly appointed chairman of the Conservative Party, told party staff to prepare for a general election. The Daily Telegraph reported that an election could be held in May or June 2023.[26][27] In March 2022, Dowden announced that the Conservatives would start a two-year election campaign in May, implying an election date of May 2024.[28] On becoming Conservative Leader in September 2022, Liz Truss said she would deliver "a great victory for the Conservative Party in 2024".[29]

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 received royal assent on 24 March 2022 and entered into force the same day. The Prime Minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met." For the MPs elected in the 2019 United Kingdom general election, who first met on 17 December 2019, this means the fifth-anniversary date of 17 December 2024 and the latest possible polling day 25 working days later, which is 24 January 2025.[30][31]

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced
Douglas Ross Moray 2017 Conservative 14 October 2021[32]
Alex Cunningham Stockton North 2010 Labour 25 November 2021[33]
Margaret Hodge Barking 1994 Labour 2 December 2021[34]
Barry Sheerman Huddersfield 1979 Labour 4 December 2021[35]
Harriet Harman Camberwell and Peckham 1982 Labour 7 December 2021[36]
Alan Whitehead Southampton Test 1997 Labour 14 January 2022[37]
Charles Walker Broxbourne 2005 Conservative 1 February 2022[38]
Ben Bradshaw Exeter 1997 Labour 3 February 2022[39]
Kate Green Stretford and Urmston 2010 Labour 10 February 2022[40]
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022[41]
Paul Blomfield Sheffield Central 2010 Labour 21 February 2022[42]
Rosie Winterton Doncaster Central 1997 Labour 27 February 2022[43]
Margaret Beckett Derby South Oct. 1974 (Lincoln) Labour 25 March 2022[44]
Nigel Adams Selby and Ainsty 2010 Conservative 9 April 2022[45]
Crispin Blunt Reigate 1997 Conservative 1 May 2022[46]
Mike Penning Hemel Hempstead 2005 Conservative 17 May 2022[47]
Adam Afriyie Windsor 2005 Conservative 22 July 2022[48]
Jon Cruddas Dagenham and Rainham 2001 Labour 28 July 2022[49]
Colleen Fletcher Coventry North East 2015 Labour 5 September 2022[50]

Opinion polling

Opinion polling for UK general elections
2010 election
Opinion polls
2015 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2017 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2019 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
Next election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election § Graphical summary.[edit]

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

Notes

  1. ^ Includes 43 MPs sponsored by the Co-operative Party, who are designated Labour and Co-operative.[3]
  2. ^ Some media sources, such as BBC News, listed Labour's total as 412, by including the Speaker (who, to demonstrate his neutrality, had resigned his Labour Party membership on taking office).
  3. ^ Eight were elected as Labour MPs but seven of these have been suspended from the parliamentary party until December 2024. Rosie Duffield resigned from the Labour Party on 28 September 2024. Five Independent MPs form the Independent Alliance technical group.
  4. ^ In the current (2024–present) Parliament, the seven members of Sinn Féin follow a policy of abstentionism. They do not swear into the house, and do not take part in its formal processes (doing so would also compel a by-election).[4] The speaker and deputy speakers (expected to be two Conservative and one Labour) by convention exercise only a casting vote.[5]

References

  1. ^ "Election 2024: Results". BBC News. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  2. ^ Cracknell, Richard; Baker, Carl; Pollock, Loui (26 July 2024). "General election 2024 results – House of Commons Library". UK Parliament. Retrieved 10 August 2024.
  3. ^ "About: Members of Parliament". Co-operative Party. Retrieved 10 May 2024.
  4. ^ Kelly, Conor (19 August 2019). "Understanding Sinn Féin's Abstention from the UK Parliament". E-International Relations. Retrieved 16 December 2019.
  5. ^ Boothroyd, David. "House of Commons: Tied Divisions". United Kingdom Election Results. Archived from the original on 6 March 2008. Retrieved 3 June 2024.
  6. ^ Zodgekar, Ketaki; Baker, Finn (5 July 2024). "How big is the Labour government's majority?". Retrieved 24 July 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  7. ^ Rogers, Alexandra (7 March 2022). "Exclusive: Labour Drops All-Women Shortlists For Next General Election". HuffPost. Retrieved 26 March 2022.
  8. ^ "Our Plan - Conservative Manifesto 2019". Conservative Party. Retrieved 17 December 2019.
  9. ^ "Correspondence with Chloe Smith MP" (PDF). parliament.uk.
  10. ^ Proctor, Kate (26 March 2020). "MPs no longer to get automatic vote on constituency boundary plans". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077.
  11. ^ "Parliamentary Constituencies Act". legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 17 December 2020.
  12. ^ "Boundary review launched". Boundary Commission for England. 24 February 2016. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  13. ^ "2018 Review of Westminster Parliamentary constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  14. ^ "2018 Review". Boundary Commission for Wales. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  15. ^ Jones, Ian [@ian_a_jones] (10 September 2018). "New constituency boundaries could have given the Tories a majority of 16 at the last election (projection: Rallings/Thrasher)" (Tweet). Retrieved 30 October 2019 – via Twitter.
  16. ^ "New parliamentary map would have given Tories a majority of 16 at last election". ITV News. 10 September 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  17. ^ Johnston, Ron; Pattie, Charles; Rossiter, David (30 April 2019). "Boundaries in limbo: why the government cannot decide how many MPs there should be". LSE British Politics and Policy. London School of Economics. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  18. ^ a b Horne, Alexander; Kelly, Richard (19 November 2014). "Alexander Horne and Richard Kelly: Prerogative powers and the Fixed-term Parliaments Act". UK Constitutional Law Association. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  19. ^ "House of Commons Debate 5 July 2010 c 23". UK Parliament. 5 July 2010. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  20. ^ "MPs back December election". 29 October 2019. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  21. ^ Tuft, Ben (8 May 2015). "When will the next UK General Election be held?". The Independent. Archived from the original on 18 June 2022. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  22. ^ "General election timetable 2015". UK Parliament. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  23. ^ Kettle, Martin (12 December 2019). "If the exit poll is right, this election will transform British politics". The Guardian. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
  24. ^ "Full transcript: The Queen's Speech". The Spectator. 19 December 2019. Retrieved 19 December 2019.
  25. ^ "Government to fulfil manifesto commitment and scrap Fixed-term Parliaments Act". GOV.UK. 1 December 2020. Retrieved 6 December 2020.
  26. ^ Hope, Christopher; Diver, Tony (15 September 2021). "Exclusive: Get ready for a general election, says Oliver Dowden". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on 11 January 2022. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  27. ^ Ferguson, Emily (16 September 2021). "MPs told to prepare for 2023 general election as fallout from brutal reshuffle continues". inews.co.uk. Retrieved 2 October 2021.
  28. ^ Mason, Rowena (18 March 2022). "Boris Johnson to launch two-year election campaign in May". The Guardian. Retrieved 15 April 2022.
  29. ^ Jones, Ian (5 September 2022). "Truss signals possible general election in 2024". Evening Standard. Retrieved 5 September 2022.
  30. ^ "Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022".
  31. ^ "Representation of the People Act 1983".
  32. ^ Malik, Paul (14 October 2021). "Westminster boundary shake-up will impact all Courier voters'". The Courier. Retrieved 14 October 2021.
  33. ^ "Stockton North MP Alex Cunningham to retire at next election". BBC News. 25 November 2021. Retrieved 25 November 2021.
  34. ^ "Labour's Margaret Hodge to step down as MP for Barking". BBC News. 2 December 2021. Retrieved 2 December 2021.
  35. ^ Prest, Victoria (4 December 2021). "Barry Sheerman to stand down as Huddersfield MP after 40 years". YorkshireLive. Retrieved 6 December 2021.
  36. ^ Prest, Victoria (7 December 2021). "Labour MP Harriet Harman to stand down at next election". BBC News. Retrieved 7 December 2021.
  37. ^ "Southampton Test Labour MP Alan Whitehead to step down". BBC News. 14 January 2022. Retrieved 14 January 2022.
  38. ^ "Broxbourne's Conservative MP to quit at next election". BBC News. 2 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  39. ^ Merritt, Anita (3 February 2022). "Exeter MP Ben Bradshaw is stepping down after 25 years". DevonLive. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
  40. ^ "A message from Kate regarding the next General Election". kategreen.org. 10 February 2022. Retrieved 10 February 2022.
  41. ^ "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". 11 February 2022 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  42. ^ Kessen, David (21 February 2022). "Sheffield Central MP Paul Blomfield to stand down from Parliament at next general election". Sheffield Star.
  43. ^ Hennessey, Ted (27 February 2022). "Deputy Commons speaker stepping down as Labour MP at next election". The Independent. Archived from the original on 18 June 2022.
  44. ^ Ovens, Ruth (25 March 2022). "Dame Margaret Beckett announces she will not stand as MP in next election". Derbyshire Live. Retrieved 25 March 2022.
  45. ^ "Nigel Adams: Selby and Ainsty MP to stand down at election". BBC News. 9 April 2022. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  46. ^ "Crispin Blunt marks 25 Years as Member of Parliament for Reigate". Crispin Blunt MP.
  47. ^ "Hemel Hempstead MP Sir Mike Penning to retire at next election". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
  48. ^ "Windsor MP Adam Afriyie to stand down at next general election". BBC News. 22 July 2022. Retrieved 22 July 2022.
  49. ^ "Jon Cruddas, MP for Rainham and Dagenham, to step down at next general election". Romford Recorder. 1 August 2022. Retrieved 12 August 2022.
  50. ^ Brown, Ellie (5 September 2022). "Coventry MP to stand down at next general election". CoventryLive. Retrieved 5 September 2022.
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