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2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

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Republican presidential primaries, 2012
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Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic



The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election of 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar

Guidelines for primary and caucus dates

A temporary committee of the Republican National Committee (RNC), set up in 2010, recommended a new plan. Under this plan, the traditional states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina) would hold their events in February, states' elected delegates proportionally could hold their events in March, with winner-take-all states and any other remaining states holding their events from April onward.[1] The amendment was passed in August 2010 by the full RNC by a vote of 144–103.[2]

Straw polls

Main article: Straw polls for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012

Several Republican and conservative organizations have held straw polls to test the support of potential presidential candidates among their respective memberships. As of 24 April 2011, Herman Cain (tied with Newt Gingrich in one poll), Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have won 2 of these contests, and Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich (tied with Herman Cain in one poll) have each won 1.

The Ames Straw Poll, which traditionally receives major media attention and sometimes causes candidates to withdraw from the race, will be held on August 13, 2011.

Debates

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential debates, 2012

The following debates have been scheduled so far:[3][4]

Primary and caucus dates

  • February 6 – March 5, 2012: Early states (Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucuses, South Carolina primary)[8]
    • February 6 – Confirmed date of the Iowa caucuses[9]
    • February 14 – Expected date of New Hampshire primary
    • February 18 – Confirmed date of the Nevada caucuses
  • March 6–31, 2012: Primaries (and other contests) that provide for proportional allocation of delegates to the candidates, and all nonbinding caucuses;
  • April 1, 2012 onward: All other contests.

Convention

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled to take place the week of August 27, 2012[10] in Tampa, Florida,[11] the week prior to when the 2012 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place.[12]

Candidates

Individuals who have declared candidacy are individuals who have formally announced that they are running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 and/or have filed as candidates with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Individuals formally exploring candidacy are potential candidates who have formed a Presidential exploratory committee or other organization to "test the waters" for a potential presidential bid, but have not officially declared their candidacy.

Declared candidacy

Herman Cain
(from Georgia)
Business executive, radio talk show host, and former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (campaign)

(website)

Cain announced in January of 2011 that he had formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination[13][14] On May 21, 2011, he offically announced his candidacy.[15]
Newt Gingrich
(from Georgia)
Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives

(campaign) (website)

On March 3, 2011, filed papers with the I.R.S. designating Newt Exploratory 2012 as a new organization formed to explore a possible candidacy.[16] On May 11, 2011, he formally announced his candidacy for President via a web video and Twitter.[17]

Gary E. Johnson
Former Governor of New Mexico (campaign) (website)
On April 21, 2011, announced the formation of his official presidential campaign in New Hampshire.[18]



Ron Paul
U.S. Representative from Texas

(campaign) (website)

On April 14, 2011, Paul announced the formation of a 'Testing-the-waters' account.[19] On April 26, 2011, he announced the formation of an exploratory committee.[20] He formally announced his candidacy for the nomination on the May 13, 2011 edition of Good Morning America[21]
Tim Pawlenty
Former Governor of Minnesota

(campaign) (website)

Pawlenty announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 21, 2011.[22] The Boston Herald reports that Pawlenty will formally announce his bid on Monday, May 23.[23]


Formally exploring candidacy

Roy Moore
Former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama

(website)

Announced the formation of an exploratory committee on April 18, 2011.[24][25]
Buddy Roemer
Former Governor of Louisiana

(campaign) (website)

Announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 3, 2011.[26][27]

Mitt Romney
Former Governor of Massachusetts

(campaign) (website)

Romney formed an exploratory committee on April 11, 2011 as the first step in his bid for the presidency.[28]
Rick Santorum
Former U.S. Senator for Pennsylvania

(campaign) (website)

Announced the formation of an exploratory committee on April 13, 2011. [29]

Prospective candidates

Current

The following is a list of individuals who are being discussed – in two or more unique, reputable sources that are less than one month old – in regard to the 2012 primary. They are listed in order of the date of the most recent media citation.

Speculated to run

Sarah Palin
Former Governor
of Alaska
May 20, 2011: ABC News: "In her latest flirtation with a 2012 presidential campaign, Sarah Palin told Fox News host Greta Van Susteren Thursday night that she has “fire in my belly” to jump into the race."[30]

May 20, 2011: CBS News: "Sarah Palin said on Fox News Thursday that she has the 'fire in my belly' for a 2012 presidential run - but that she also has 'practical, pragmatic' concerns tied to her family."[31]



Jon Huntsman, Jr.
Former U.S. Ambassador
to China and former Governor of Utah
May 19, 2011: Politico: "The former ambassador to China is embarking on a five-day campaign swing through New Hampshire, a trip that will put him in the center of the 2012 fray amid growing Republican alarm about the weakness of the party’s presidential field."[32]

May 20, 2011: Washington Post: "While the election in 2012 will almost certainly be decided on the economy and other domestic issues, the current foreign policy focus presents peril for a Republican field that lacks any significant international experience. But it also might give former Utah governor Jon Huntsman an opening to distinguish himself to voters in the early days of the campaign."[33]


Peter King
U.S. Representative
of New York
May 18, 2011: The Atlantic Wire: "New York Rep. Peter King is open to running for president in 2012, telling the Associated Press, 'Let's see what happens'."[34]

May 20, 2011: The Hill: "Rep. Pete King says 'odds very much against' running for president ..... but the New York Republican wasn't quite Shermanesque in ruling out the possibility of running, making it seem as though he could be drawn into the race if enough popular acclaim were to arise within the GOP."[35]


Michele Bachmann
U.S. Representative
from Minnesota
May 16, 2011: CBS News: "Michele Bachmann's insiders say they expect the Minnesota Republican representative to get into the presidential race in June."[36]

May 18, 2011: New York Daily News: "Now that Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump have bowed out of the presidential race, Rep. Michele Bachmann says she is 'much closer' to a decision, and it could come before June."[37]


John R. Bolton
(from Maryland)
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
May 2, 2011: Christian Science Monitor: "(F)or someone like former UN Ambassador John Bolton, who has [.....]talked about possibly running and who would center a campaign on foreign policy, Obama’s success on bin Laden might give him pause about taking on the incumbent president."[38]

May 17, 2011: Politico: "John Bolton has his first New Hampshire trip as a potential presidential candidate on the calendar. Bolton is scheduled to address the Nashua Republican City Committee on Sept. 8. The former United Nations ambassador, who says he's mulling a run but has done next-to-nothing to build a national political infrastructure, would have little time after that to pull the trigger. The New Hampshire filing deadline for presidential candidates is just weeks later."[39]


Rudy Giuliani
Former Mayor
of New York City
May 9, 2011: Washington Post: "Don't count out former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has been thrust back into the spotlight post-bin Laden and who's headed later this week to New

Hampshire where the latest WMUR-University of New Hampshire poll showed him in third place behind Romney and Trump."[40]

May 16, 2011: The Huffington Post: "Rudy Giuliani likely doesn't have much of a chance. His flirtation with running in 2012 should mostly be seen, much like Trump, as an effort to boost his own name brand a bit. Even if Rudy does decide to go for it, his effect on the race will likely be as minimal as it was in 2008. "[41]


Thad McCotter
U.S. Representative
from Michigan
May 9, 2011: Washington Times: "Conservative Republican donors and grassroots activists, who have raised concerns that there is not yet a true Reagan conservative in the GOP presidential primary are privately encouraging Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, Michigan Republican, to look at a potential entry."[42]

May 14, 2011: Detroit Free Press: "Just consider it, how about a real rock 'n' roll president: U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter. OK, it's a long shot. No, it's a pipe dream. But it's an idea being bandied about by a handful of conservative pundits. McCotter seems genuinely bemused by the talk -- though he's not outright rejecting it -- and his political future remains a bit hazy."[43]

Declined bids

The following people, who were speculated to be potential presidential candidates have – following the 2010 midterm elections – clearly and unequivocally denied interest publicly, or released Shermanesque statements, or have declared candidacy for a different political office in 2012. This also includes anyone who has endorsed a declared presidential candidate.

Not running

Previous

The following people have been the object of presidential speculation in past media reports, but have not recently signaled an interest in actually running. This gallery does not include people who have declined to run (See above).

Received earlier speculation

Hypothetical polling

References

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