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2018 Virginia's 10th congressional district election

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Virginia's 10th congressional district election, 2018

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Virginia's 10th congressional district election is expected to be one of the highest-profile United States House of Representatives elections of 2018, and the most competitive in Virginia,[1][2][3] as Republicans defend their sole remaining Congressional seat in northern Virginia[4] and Democrats fight for what they perceive as a strong pickup opportunity in Virginia's 10th congressional district in 2018.[5] Incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock is running in her party's primary against Air Force veteran Shak Hill. The winner of the Republican primary will run in the general election against the nominee chosen in the Democratic primary from among a field of six candidates: scientist Julia Biggins, former State Department official Alison Friedman, state senator Jennifer Wexton, Army veteran Dan Helmer, former Department of Veterans Affairs official Lindsey Davis Stover, and former federal prosecutor Paul Pelletier. Comstock has posted one of the largest fundraising hauls of the first quarter of 2018, with four separate Democrats in the district posting fundraising hauls of more than $200,000.[6] The fact that the field of six Democrats raised more than $4.4 million combined for the Democratic primary was seen as a sign of Democratic enthusiasm.[7]

Wexton is viewed as the frontrunner to win the Democratic primary because she represents about half of the largest county, Loudoun, in the 10th district, and because she has gained the endorsements of many of Virginia's Democratic politicians. On the other hand, in fundraising, she has fallen short of Friedman's totals and barely edged out Helmer and Stover. Also, the results of recent elections, such as the 2017 Democratic gubernatorial primary, suggest that Virginia voters, especially those from Loudoun, may prefer candidates from outside the Establishment. The proximity of Virginia's 10th District to D.C. may somewhat limit the reach of any outsider candidacy, although the concentration of government workers and contractors is not as high as it is in, say, Fairfax. Wexton has also been targeted by fellow Democrats over her willingness to compromise on gun control[8] and for her refusal to forgo corporate donations. Helmer and Friedman say her past acceptance of Dominion Energy and other corporate PAC money, and her unwillingness to pledge not to take corporate PAC money in the future, prevents her from creating enough of a contrast with Comstock.[9]

The Democratic and Republican primaries are scheduled for 12 June 2018,[10] with a 21 May deadline to register to vote.[11] The general election, along with the other United States House of Representatives elections in Virginia, 2018, is scheduled for 6 November 2018. As of May, Roll Call listed Comstock as one of only three incumbents running in districts rated as tossups.[12] Because Virginia's election results will be among the first reported on Election Day, the race is likely to be looked at as a possible bellwether.

Background

Barbara Comstock has represented the district since 2014

Virginia's 10th congressional district has a higher median income than any other congressional district outside of Silicon Valley. The district is home to the Central Intelligence Agency and many of the country's biggest defense companies, IT firms and government contractors. The 10th covers McLean and Manassas, and then stretches west from Loudoun to the West Virginia line.[13]

Ever since 17-term Republican Rep. Frank Wolf's retirement, Democrats have seen the 10th district as ripe for a challenge, but Comstock has won by solid margins since her first run in 2014,[14] when she rode a solid advantage in fundraising to the victory over Fairfax County supervisor John Foust.[15] In 2016, Comstock's challenger, Democrat LuAnn Bennett, became the first 10th District Democrat to win in Loudoun since 1978, but Comstock still won with 210,791 (52.7 percent) to Bennett's 187,712 votes (46.9 percent) of the ballots cast.[16] The 10th district is one of 23 districts across the country that split their ticket in 2016 by voting for Democrat Hillary Clinton for President and a Republican for Representative.[17]

National significance

Democrats are attempting to pick up 24 additional seats in the 2018 House elections to win back the majority they lost in the 2010 election. This effort is focused on defending Democratic seats while picking up Republican seats, especially in races that are tossups or where the districts lean Democratic. In anticipation of a possible "blue wave" in which many Republican incumbents are voted out, Republican politicians are retiring in record numbers, but Comstock has opted to fight for her seat.[18] Democratic Rep. Don Beyer said that in Virginia, Comstock would be "the No. 1 target – we're going to put everyone behind it."[19]

Comstock has been described as, by the numbers,[20] arguably the most vulnerable Republican House member. Part of the reason is that northern Virginia has become increasingly Democratic.[21] In the Virginia House of Delegates election, 2017, seven of the eight[22] Republican incumbents in the state legislature with districts touching Comstock’s were defeated by Democrats.[23] Among other reasons for Democrats' optimism about winning the election are that Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by 10 points in the 10th district in the United States presidential election, 2016[24] and Democrat Ralph Northam won in the 10th district by a 13 percent margin in the Virginia gubernatorial election, 2017.[25] Democrats believe Comstock may be defeated by Democratic voters bent on defeating anyone who shares a party affiliation with Trump.[26]

Comstock, however, won by 6 points in 2016 despite the Republican presidential ticket's loss in her district, and she has said that the 2017 election results did not change her game plan for the 2018 election because in her view, listening to the voters of the district and focusing on the district's priorities are what are important.[27] In addition to the fact that Comstock is a proven winner in districts bluer than the national average, another challenge Democrats face in unseating her is that the D.C. media market is one of the most expensive in the country, and reaches many people who don't live in the district. This makes it necessary to raise large amounts of money, including from outside groups.[21] According to Washington Post reporter Jenna Portnoy, "Experts say Comstock will be tough to beat given her strong name recognition, relentless campaign style and embrace of some moderate positions that polls show resonate with voters in the closest thing Virginia has to a swing district."[28] Comstock is also renowned for her political smarts.[29]

According to Comstock's political director Ken Nunnenkamp, "Democrats have spent over $20 million trying to defeat her and they have a 0-5 record to show for it because these failed campaigns are dictated by partisan operatives from outside the district who continuously underestimate Congresswoman Comstock's record of legislative accomplishment, her hard work ethic, and her constant presence and connection with her constituents." In particular, he cited, "Those failed campaigns have also had one thing in common – the bitter partisan advice of Kathleen Murphy," who lost a 2013 House of Delegates race to Comstock and then won a 2015 special election after Comstock resigned.[30]

For the second election cycle in a row, Comstock is on the National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program list of vulnerable House members who will receive additional financial and strategic support for their races.[31][32]

Candidates

Republican

Barbara Comstock

Comstock is a Georgetown University-educated lawyer who interned for her home state Senator Edward Kennedy during the presidency of Ronald Reagan, when she realized she was a Republican.[33] She then went on to work on Frank Wolf's staff, before making her reputation as an opposition researcher on Clinton administration scandals such as Travelgate and the Clinton–Lewinsky scandal[34] and then working for the U.S. Department of Justice.[35]

Shak Hill

Shak Hill, born Edward Wayshak Mangum, graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy, obtained an M.B.A. from Western New England University, and served in the U.S. Air Force in the Presidential Wing, based at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland. In 2014, he sought to unseat Senator Mark Warner but did not win the Republican nomination.[36]

Democratic

Julia Biggins

Julia Biggins is a graduate of Baylor College of Medicine and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and an assistant director of antiviral research at Integrated BioTherapeutics Inc. Issues she has focused on include renewable energy, climate change, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals expansion, LGBTQ rights, and HIV research funding.[37] She has described Comstock as an "anti-science Congresswoman".[38]

Alison Friedman

Alison Friedman interned at Feminist Majority during college, then became a legislative and program coordinator for People for the American Way, and subsequently worked for Congresswoman Jane Harman and co-founded a nonprofit, the Alliance to Stop Slavery and End Trafficking (ASSET), to fight human trafficking.[39] She helped to write the California Consumer Transparency Act and served as a senior State Department official in the Obama Administration, continuing her work against human trafficking.[40] Specifically, she was deputy director for the Office to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons and later helped establish a public-private partnership known as the Global Fund to End Slavery.[3]

Dan Helmer

Dan Helmer is a U.S. Army veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a Rhodes Scholar.[41] Helmer was employed as a business strategist at the Boston Consulting Group and has continued his military service in the Army Reserves, where he was selected in 2017 for promotion to Lieutenant Colonel.[42]

Paul Pelletier

Paul Pelletier served as a police officer, attended law school, had two judicial clerkships, and became a federal prosecutor, serving in the United States Department of Justice Tax Division and then becoming an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Miami office of the United States Attorney for the Southern District of Florida. In 1997, he transitioned to tackling white-collar crime and healthcare fraud when he became chief of Miami's economic crimes section. When the Enron scandal broke, the Justice Department brought him to Washington, D.C., to help its criminal division fight accounting fraud. He served on the federal task force that led the corruption case against lobbyist Jack Abramoff as well as officials in Congress and the White House,[43] including U.S. Reps. Robert Ney and William J. Jefferson.[44] Pelletier moved to the 10th district in 2017 specifically to run against Comstock.[3]

Lindsey Stover

Lindsey Stover is a graduate of Harvard University Kennedy School of Government and owner of Edwards, Davis Stover and Associates, a small communications firm that works with veteran-owned small businesses and companies.[45] She is a communications strategist, former Obama administration official, and first-time candidate who announced her candidacy in April 2017.[46]

Jennifer Wexton

Jennifer Wexton was educated at the University of Maryland and the William & Mary Law School.[47] She is currently a state senator. She was encouraged to run for the U.S. House seat by national Democratic leaders.[48] Richard D. Saslaw has said that "Wexton, from an ideological standpoint, is a perfect fit for that district" because "She's a liberal but not to the point where it's going to scare off the slightly moderate to conservative voters."[49]

Others

Fairfax teachers union president Kimberly Adams, Loudoun School for the Gifted founder Deep Sran, financial consultant Michael Pomerleano, wounded veterans advocate Julien Modica, general practitioner Shadi Ayyas,[50] and retired Naval intelligence officer David Hanson[51] filed paperwork to compete in the Democratic primary, but did not submit enough signatures to get on the ballot.[43]

Libertarian

Libertarian[52] Nathan Larson was certified for the ballot in May.[53] Prior to this election, Larson had from 1997 to 2004 lived in Westgate, a 10th district Manassas neighborhood that after the redistricting following the 2010 United States Census became part of Virginia's 1st congressional district. In March 2018, Larson explained his reason for running in the 10th district was that after surveying the field of candidates, he determined the voters "already have plenty of normies on the ballot" which has caused the voters to become "bored and dissatisfied with politics".[54] Larson describes his own politics as "quasi-neoreactionary".[55] Early drafts of a campaign manifesto by Larson suggested that his major campaign issues would include stopping the federal war on drugs, protecting gun ownership rights, and ending American involvement in unnecessary foreign wars. Larson also expressed concern for the plight of incels in a feminist-influenced society and about the difficulty he says average men are having in finding chaste women to marry.[56]

Campaigns

Sean Schofield, a 44-year-old computer programmer from Silver Spring, and Abbey Ruby, a 34-year-old lawyer from McLean, founded Dump Comstock, a group devoted to embarrassing and attacking Comstock through electronic ambushes caught on video, mobile electronic billboards, social media, and their website. Dump Comstock is working with other groups seeking to unseat Comstock, including Planned Parenthood, the Service Employees International Union, and Indivisible.[57]

An online-only campaign video entitled “Helmer Zone” unexpectedly went viral in September 2017, climbing to number four on the YouTube trending list within 24 hours.[58] Reactions to the video, in which Helmer spoofed the film “Top Gun,” complete with offkey singing, were mixed. As the Daily Beast noted, “The internet quickly dubbed it one of the worst campaign ads of all time. But Helmer’s eyeball-gouging chorus never leaves your head…. which seems to be the point.”[59]

As of May 2018, Alison Friedman had raised $1,379,297, the most money of the Democratic challengers

Friedman had the first television ad of the campaign season, "Lockdown," which portrays parents receiving emails from their children's schools alerting them of lockdowns and outlines Friedman's support for expanding background checks, banning assault weapons and closing the gun show loophole.[60] The U.S. Chamber of Commerce aired an ad touting Comstock's support for transportation projects and the military, while pointing out that she's "not with the partisan bomb-throwers."[61]

Tom Steyer plans to spend at least $2 million to try to unseat Barbara Comstock and Scott Taylor through his organization, NextGen America.[62]

Fundraising

As of April 2018, Comstock had raised nearly $2.8 million for the race, topping fellow Virginia Republicans incumbents Dave Brat and Tom Garrett Jr.[18] and her Democratic opponents. Comstock's donors include Michael Chertoff, head of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under President George W. Bush; Todd Stottlemyer, chief executive of the Inova Center for Personalized Health, and his wife; former Mississippi governor Haley Barbour; Ed Gillespie's campaign committee; and Carly Fiorina.[63] The Congressional Leadership Fund is also planning to make a seven-figure commitment to her campaign.[18]

In April, Democrat Friedman reported cash on hand of $817,631; Wexton reported $630,707; Helmer reported $516,146; Stover reported $471,956; and Pelletier reported $191,294. Republican primary challenger Shak Hill reported $63,401.[64]

Wexton says that she has not taken any political action committee money in the election and will not take any Dominion Energy money. She has responded to criticism of her taking money from Dominion during her state senate races by saying that the donations did not influence her voting.[65]

Friedman's donors include actress Jennifer Garner; singer Barbra Streisand; Alexander Soros, son of the liberal billionaire donor George Soros; Peter Getty; Donna Brazile, former head of the Democratic National Committee; singer Graham Nash; singer Bonnie Raitt; and Eleanor Smeal, president of the Feminist Majority Foundation.[63]

Polling

On 3 April 2018, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a memo, based on a 21-22 March poll of at least 400 voters, showing that 10th district voters would pick a generic Democrat over a Republican by a 12-point margin, but that Comstock was down only 3 points when her name was included on the ballot.[64]

Endorsements

Friedman has been endorsed by Dolores Huerta, Gloria Steinem, and Khizr Khan. Helmer has been endorsed by former Obama administration official Michele Flournoy and the progressive veterans organization VoteVets.[66] Wexton has been endorsed by Gerry Connolly and Donald McEachin. Stover has been endorsed by the Pride Fund to End Gun Violence, Wendy Davis, Bill Richardson, Winchester Mayor David Smith, and Obama administration Chief of Staff Denis McDonough. Biggins has been endorsed by One Revolution.[8]

Issues

Comstock's challengers have focused on the issue of gun control, prompted by the district's increasing population of college-educated white-collar workers and suburbanites' changing attitudes about National Rifle Association (NRA) in the wake of the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting. Comstock has received high ratings from the NRA[67] and ranks 10th among House members who have received the most in donations from the group.[68] At a 10 April candidate forum, the Democratic candidates described gun control methods they would support, agreeing to ban assault rifles and high-capacity magazines and implement universal background checks. At that debate, Helmer and Stover criticized Wexton's support of a legislative compromise supporting concealed carry reciprocity with other states in exchange for stiffening penalties for domestic abusers caught with guns and mandating that state police perform background checks for private transactions at gun shows. Wexton defended the compromise as having improved public safety by resulting in felony charges for 60 people under the domestic violence gun ban.[69] Biggins proposed an Australian-style gun buyback program.[70]

In May, Helmer went to a gun show in Chantilly and demonstrated how it was possible to buy what he described as "the same gun, same magazine I had in Afghanistan" in under 10 minutes, without any background check.[71][72] According to Roll Call's Patricia Murphy, Comstock's challengers are digging into the gun control issue because they know it has become a voting issue for gun reform advocates, especially women.[73]

Comstock's support for the Federal Employees Paid Parental Leave Act and break with the Donald Trump administration over the federal hiring freeze have helped her reputation as an ally of federal workers, many of whom live in her district. She has also focused on pay raises for public servants and expanding job opportunities for veterans.[74] She has also praised the military budget increases in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2018 as a win for defense contractors and Pentagon employees in her district and authored legislation to combat the opioid epidemic and MS-13 gang problem that have sprouted in some Northern Virginia neighborhoods. She has spoken out against illegal drugs crossing the border and in May participated in an event with the two DEA agents who caught drug lord Pablo Escobar and were featured in Narcos.[75] She portrays some of her well-funded Democratic opponents as carpetbaggers who are out of touch with the district and too leftist to represent it.[76]

Comstock's voting record, including on the 2017 tax reform bill,[23] has usually been aligned with Trump, but she has distanced herself from him by calling his behavior in the Donald Trump Access Hollywood tape so "disgusting" and "vile" as to warrant dropping out of the presidential election; and opposing the United States federal government shutdowns of 2018.[77] Comstock also said that she could not defend Trump's reported comments calling Haiti, El Salvador and African nations "shithole countries."[24] Comstock also praised the appointment of former FBI director Robert Mueller as Special Counsel in the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections.[78]

In addition, Comstock was one of the few Republicans given a pass from the Republican leadership to vote against the American Health Care Act of 2017, also known as TrumpCare. Comstock stated her opposition was due to her concern over some of its provisions, in particular one that would allow states to let insurers again charge more to customers with preexisting medical problems, while conservative blogger Jim Hoeft suggested that her decision was an attempt to walk a fine line in a district where elections are becoming more favorable to Democrats.[79] Stover pointed out that Comstock stated her opposition to TrumpCare when it looked as if it would fail: "Her decision was made when the fate of the bill was already sealed. I don't believe that's courage — that's politics, and that's exactly what people are sick of."[46] More generally, Comstock's Democratic opponents claim that she often speaks like them but almost always votes like a Republican.[67]

All five Democrats who participated in a 14 May debate (that is, all the Democratic candidates except Wexton, who was attending a state senate special session) said they think Trump is unfit for office, with Helmer saying, "After 9/11, the worst threat to our democracy lived in a cave. Now he lives in the White House. I'm ready to vote to impeach him to defend democracy."[80] Stover likewise is in favor of moving forward with impeachment proceedings, although she says she wants to make sure the case is "airtight" before charges are brought in Congress. Wexton is not yet in favor of moving forward with impeachment, saying she wants to collect facts and evidence first. Friedman also says she is not yet ready to move forward with impeachment, although she wants Trump out of office. Biggins too wants the investigation to run its course before she supports impeachment. Pelletier says he is in favor of moving forward with impeachment proceedings and that he wants Trump to be accountable for his actions.[3]

Friedman had previously called Trump "the embodiment of abuses of power" and said, regarding sexual harassment, "I'm glad Barbara Comstock has been talking about this issue. But I think her commitment would be more meaningful if she was working as hard to hold the president accountable for his sexual assault."[39] In a May telephone interview, Comstock noted Trump's achievements, including the 2018 North Korea–United States summit, the release of three Korean American detainees held by the North, his stepback from the Iranian nuclear deal, the new U.S. embassy in Jerusalem, and his economic initiatives that have put the economy on a forward pace.[33]

Comstock has been criticized by Democrats for declining to hold town halls where constituents could dialog with her in an unscripted public forum.[81] Stover said that it shows a lack of courage.[46] Republican former Rep. Tom Davis has suggested Comstock change the practice, arguing, "You’ve got to let people scream at you a little bit, let them get it off their chest."[26] In response to the complaints about her lack of town halls, Comstock's office has said that she has met with hundreds of constituents in her offices and connected with 9000 during telephone town halls and that "she is ever present in and around her district."[81]

The Democrats differ on how to improve Obamacare, with Helmer advocating replacing it with Medicare for all, and Biggins favoring single-payer healthcare.[65] Stover favors a single-payer system as well, and says that she’d also like to look at a Medicare-for-all system as well as other proposals for a system that could not be undermined by a future administration. Wexton thinks that the country should be evolving toward a single-payer health care system. Friedman favors improving the Affordable Care Act.[3]

On transportation, Biggins has cited light rail and buses as ways to help deal with infrastructure problems and Wexton has cited the Dulles Greenway's high tolls as an example of what happens with privatized infrastructure. Pelletier blamed the Republican tax reform law for leaving no money to fix 10th district transportation problems and Helmer blamed special interests for impeding transportation solutions.[82] Comstock spent most of 2017 working on legislation to reform the Metro train and bus system that serves the Washington region, but Democrats have criticized her 2013 vote against Metro funding when she represented Virginia's 34th House of Delegates district.[29]

Friedman has criticized the Tax Reform Act for benefiting corporations and the wealthy above working families, singles, and those in most need, and Helmer has called for a complete rewrite of the legislation. Biggins proposed countering the Tax Reform Act by tightening up some military spending, saying, "We have many redundancies there that could be streamlined a bit."[83] As a result of Comstock's support of the tax bill, the National Association of Manufacturers put on an event with Comstock in April in a rural part of her district featuring George Allen praising Comstock's efforts in Congress.[84] Although Comstock mentioned the benefits of the tax cuts 36 times in January in social media, she did so only 13 times in March and then 22 times in April, and said in an interview that she is reacting to constituents, whose interests have moved on to other issues.[85] Her support for the tax bill could be a vulnerability in an affluent district where many voters claim state and local tax deductions.[86]

Stover has called Republicans' immigration bans and reforms and the proposed Border Wall "heartless and bad economic decisions" and described the wall as "a symbol of hate." Helmer said Comstock's comments likening the tracking of immigrants entering the country to tracking FedEx packages were reasons to run against her, and said, "All my time in Iraq and Afghanistan, I never thought we were fighting to deport children."[87] Friedman also criticized Comstock's FedEx package comparison, saying it did not respect human dignity.[88]

Primaries

Democratic

The 10th Congressional District Democratic Committee unanimously opted to hold a state-run open primary.[1] The six Democratic candidates who turned in enough signatures to be placed on the primary ballot are scientist Julia Biggins, former State Department official Alison Friedman, state senator Jennifer Wexton, Army veteran Dan Helmer, former Department of Veterans Affairs official Lindsey Davis Stover, and former federal prosecutor Paul Pelletier. As of April 2018, Friedman led the group in campaign fundraising. Wexton came in second in fundraising[89] and was endorsed by Governor Ralph Northam[64] and Representatives Gerald E. Connolly and A. Donald McEachin. Wexton, the only elected official in the field, has the highest name recognition.[69] Political scientist Stephen Farnsworth remarked, "If you’re not Senator Wexton, your big challenge is to be heard at all," which he says makes it worthwhile for her rivals to attack her so they can stand out from the field.[70]

The Democratic primary in the 10th district is seen as exemplifying the internecine fights in 2018's crowded Democratic primaries. Some observers note that because Comstock's vulnerability attracted a number of Democrats to run against her, there is a possibility that Democratic infighting could leave the eventual nominee too bruised and battered to win against Comstock.[90] The Democratic veterans group VoteVets is backing Helmer, while state legislators are supporting state Wexton, and Stover and Friedman, both former Barack Obama administration officials, have tapped those networks for help.[91]

Republican

Incumbent Barbara Comstock faces a long-shot challenge in the primary from former combat pilot Shak Hill, who ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination in the United States Senate election in Virginia, 2014.[25] Hill has hired Corey Stewart's campaign manager, and some experts say that Hill embodies the possibility that Comstock's efforts to appeal to centrists in the most populated areas of her district could cost her conservative votes.[28] In April 2018, Comstock's campaign created a site, "ShadyShak.com," attacking Hill's personal and professional life.[92] Hill complained that he was unfairly attacked by a conservative media outlet friendly to his opponent, incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock, after a website he runs uploaded articles about penis enlargement without his knowledge.[93][94]

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