2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

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2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It will be held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate, other elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1]

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow was first elected in 2000, unseating Spencer Abraham (R). Stabenow was most recently re-elected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote and announced on January 5, 2023 that she would not seek a fifth term in office. This will be the first open race for this seat since 1994.[2][3]

Background

A typical swing state, Michigan is considered to be a purple to slightly blue state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Michigan by less than 3 percentage points. However, Democrats have seen much more success in recent years in the state. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, a slight majority of the U.S. House congressional delegation, majorities in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices.[4]

This race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and the fact that there is no incumbent; however, most analysts consider the race leaning towards the Democrats.[5] In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party cash poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race.[6][7]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Hill Harper
Municipal officials
Organizations
Elissa Slotkin
Statewide elected officials
U.S. Representatives
State cabinet officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Pamela Pugh
Mayors
Declined to endorse
Presidents
U.S. Senators

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nasser Beydoun (D) $225,056 $121,850 $103,205
Zack Burns (D) $29,073 $24,412 $4,660
Leslie Love (D) $18,160 $3,061 $15,098
Pamela Pugh (D) $90,638 $81,363 $9,275
Elissa Slotkin (D) $8,855,227 $3,682,148 $5,173,078
Source: Federal Election Commission[51]

Elissa Slotkin has led the field in fundraising with nearly $8.9 million for her Senate campaign as of October 2023.[52][53] By mid-August 2023, she had raised nearly $6 million for her Senate campaign.[54] Slotkin received more than $35,000 from executives of the studios involved in the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike and the 2023 Writers Guild of America strike, including more than $26,000 in contributions from Disney executives, $2,500 from a Sony Pictures film executive, and $2,250 from an executive vice president for Paramount Pictures.[54]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Nasser
Beydoun
Zach
Burns
Hill
Harper
Leslie
Love
Pamela
Pugh
Jacquise
Purifoy
Elissa
Slotkin
Other Undecided
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 551 (RV) ± 4.1% 2% 3% 8% 2% 1% 3% 34% 22% 25%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Announcement pending

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Mike Rogers
Organizations
  • Police Officers Association of Michigan[75]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Michael Hoover (R) $209,465 $73,525 $135,940
Nikki Snyder (R) $169,468 $79,653 $89,814
Source: Federal Election Commission[51]

Polling

James Craig vs. Mike Rogers
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
James
Craig
Mike
Rogers
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) Oct 9–10, 2023 430 (LV) ± 4.7% 30% 19% 51%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Michael
Hoover
Peter
Meijer
Mike
Rogers
Ezra
Scott
Nikki
Snyder
Alexandra
Taylor
John
Tuttle
Other Undecided
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 477 (RV) ± 4.4% 3% 9% 12% 1% 6% 1% 1% 39% 29%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[76] Lean D August 8, 2023
Inside Elections[77] Lean D July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[78] Lean D January 24, 2023
Elections Daily[79] Lean D May 4, 2023

Polling

Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
James
Craig (R)
Undecided
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 38% 17%
EPIC-MRA Jun 8–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 39% 21%
Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
Undecided
EPIC-MRA Aug 6–11, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 37% 21%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 38% 18%
Mitchell Research[A] Jul 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 38% 17%
Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Nikki
Snyder (R)
Undecided
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 36% 20%
Hypothetical polling
Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Peter
Meijer (R)
Undecided
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 36% 22%
Mitchell Research[A] Jul 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 28% 31%
Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
John
Tuttle (R)
Undecided
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 35% 20%

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll commissioned by MIRS

References

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ^ "Sen. Stabenow will not seek re-election in 2024". Upper Michigan Source. TV6 News Team. January 5, 2023. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  3. ^ Hughes, Siobhan (January 5, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow Won't Seek Re-Election". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  4. ^ Cappelletti, Joey; Foody, Kathleen (November 9, 2022). "Whitmer, Democrats get sweeping wins in divided Michigan". Associated Press. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  5. ^ Coleman, J. Miles (October 27, 2022). "The Senate: Race for Majority Remains a Toss-up as 2024 Looms – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 25, 2023.
  6. ^ https://www.mlive.com/politics/2023/09/michigans-gop-is-a-doggone-mess-inside-a-party-torn-by-infighting-and-paranoia.html
  7. ^ https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/09/22/mackinac-republican-leadership-conference-michigan-gop/70898529007/
  8. ^ Spangler, Todd (April 25, 2023). "Dearborn businessman challenges Elissa Slotkin for Senate bid". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  9. ^ Haddad, Ken (April 19, 2023). "Michigan lawyer launches bid for US Senate seat". Click on Detroit. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  10. ^ Cappelletti, Joey (July 10, 2023). "Hill Harper, an actor on 'CSI: NY' and 'The Good Doctor,' is running for the US Senate in Michigan". Associated Press. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
  11. ^ Vaughn, Jerome (May 16, 2023). "Former Michigan lawmaker Leslie Love announces bid for Stabenow's US Senate seat". WDET 101.9 FM. Retrieved June 3, 2023.
  12. ^ Burke, Melissa Nann (May 23, 2023). "State board of education president Pamela Pugh launches U.S. Senate bid". The Detroit News. Retrieved May 23, 2023.
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  26. ^ Schuster, Simon (February 22, 2023). "Almost 18 months from the primary, Michigan's U.S. Senate race has early entrants". MLive Media Group. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
  27. ^ Bernstein, Jonathan (March 5, 2023). "How Democrats Are Able to Accomplish So Much". Bloomberg. Retrieved July 11, 2023.
  28. ^ Nass, Liz (January 5, 2023). "Stabenow will not seek reelection in 2024, speculation on replacement ensues". The State News.
  29. ^ McVicar, Brian (April 14, 2023). "Congresswoman Scholten's campaign announces 'historic' fundraising numbers". mlive.com. Retrieved June 19, 2023. Scholten is seeking another term in the U.S. House. If she wins the Democratic primary, she would be on the general election ballot in November 2024.
  30. ^ Burke, Melissa Nann (January 5, 2023). "Michigan's U.S. Sen. Stabenow won't seek reelection in 2024". Detroit News. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  31. ^ "Haley Stevens passes on bid for Michigan Senate seat".
  32. ^ a b c d e f g h Beggin, Riley (June 14, 2023). "Haley Stevens endorses Elissa Slotkin for U.S. Senate". The Detroit News. Retrieved June 14, 2023.
  33. ^ "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/5". The Daily Kos. January 5, 2023. Retrieved January 9, 2023.
  34. ^ Lewis, Shawntay (July 11, 2023). "Harper kicks off Senate campaign with Detroit rally". The Detroit News. Retrieved July 12, 2023.
  35. ^ "Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity, Inc. Brother and Actor Hill Harper, who is running for U.S. Senate in the 2024 election in Michigan, offered remarks yesterday at the Alpha PAC's reception. #APA1906Network #MenOfDistinction #AlphaPAC #CBC52ndAnnualLegislativeConference#AlphasAtCBC".
  36. ^ Mauger, Craig (September 2, 2023). "Harper gets Black Caucus nod". The Detroit News. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  37. ^ "Guest column: A once in a generation opportunity for Michigan". The Oakland Press. July 24, 2023. Retrieved July 26, 2023.
  38. ^ "Raskin endorses Slotkin's Senate bid, boosting her in Democratic primary". Colorado Springs Gazette. August 21, 2023. Retrieved August 21, 2023.
  39. ^ a b c d e f Melinn, Kyle; Heywood, Todd (May 12, 2023). "Anthony, 52 Mid-Michigan leaders back Slotkin's U.S. Senate run". City Pulse. Retrieved May 12, 2023.
  40. ^ Coleman, Ken (August 14, 2023). "Former Detroit Mayor Dave Bing endorses Slotkin for U.S. Senate in 2024". Michigan Advance. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  41. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "Slotkin gets endorsements from 14 major labor unions". Livingston County Daily Press & Argus. May 26, 2023. Retrieved May 27, 2023.
  42. ^ Chou, Lauren (March 30, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Elissa Slotkin for Election to the United States Senate". EMILY's List. Retrieved April 1, 2023.
  43. ^ a b Fernandez, Madison (March 20, 2023). "The next battleground for abortion rights". Politico. Retrieved March 20, 2023.
  44. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". Feminist Majority Foundation PAC. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  45. ^ "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Elissa Slotkin for US Senate". Giffords. July 13, 2023. Retrieved July 25, 2023.
  46. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
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  68. ^ Merica, Dan (August 10, 2023). "Michigan's Republican Senate Primary Is About to Heat Up". The Messenger. Craig said he was targeting late September for an announcement
  69. ^ Krause, Sheldon (February 27, 2023). "Tom Barrett will run again for Congress in 2024; several Democrats still considering". Lansing State Journal. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  70. ^ Schuster, Simon (March 6, 2023). "Elissa Slotkin kicks off Senate campaign with a kitchen-table message". MLive Media Group. Retrieved March 6, 2023. Tudor Dixon, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2022, also indicated she wouldn't seek Stabenow's seat.
  71. ^ Cappelletti, Joey (February 24, 2023). "GOP Rep. John James won't seek Michigan's open Senate seat". AP News. Retrieved February 24, 2023.
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  73. ^ Okun, Eli (January 6, 2023). "POLITICO Playbook PM: McCarthy finally gets some momentum". Politico. Retrieved May 23, 2023.
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  75. ^ "POAM endorses long-time friend Mike Rogers for Senate". Police Officers Association of Michigan. Police Officers Association of Michigan. September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 17, 2023.
  76. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  77. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  78. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  79. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.

External links

Official campaign websites