2009 Honduran coup d'état
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The 2009 Honduran coup d'état, part of the 2009 Honduran constitutional crisis, occurred when the Honduran Army on orders from the Honduran Supreme Court ousted President Manuel Zelaya and sent him into exile on 28 June 2009. It was prompted when Zelaya attempted to schedule a non-binding poll on holding a referendum about convening a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution. After Zelaya refused to comply with court orders to cease, the Honduran Supreme Court secretly issued a warrant for his arrest on 26 June. Two days later, Honduran soldiers stormed the president's house in the middle of the night and detained Zelaya, forestalling the poll. Instead of bringing him to trial, they put him on a military aeroplane which flew him to Costa Rica. Later that day, the Honduran Congress, in an extraordinary session, voted to remove Zelaya from office, after reading a resignation letter whose authenticity was disputed and attributed to President Zelaya, and appointed his constitutional successor, Speaker of Congress Roberto Micheletti, in his place.
International reaction to the 2009 Honduran coup d'état was marked by widespread condemnation of the events. The United Nations, the Organization of American States (OAS), and the European Union condemned the removal of Zelaya as a military coup. On 5 July, the OAS, invoking for the first time Article 21 of the Inter-American Democratic Charter voted by acclamation of all member states to suspend Honduras from the organisation.
In July 2011, Honduras's Truth Commission concluded that Zelaya broke the law when he disregarded the Supreme Court ruling ordering him to cancel the referendum, but that his removal from office was illegal and a coup. The designation by Congress of Roberto Micheletti as interim president was ruled by the commission as unconstitutional and his administration as a "de facto regime".
- 1 Background
- 2 Zelaya's detention and exile
- 3 Congress removes Zelaya from office
- 4 Legality of ouster
- 5 Historical significance of the 2009 coup
- 6 Demonstrations surrounding Zelaya's removal
- 7 Human rights abuses of the interim government
- 8 Media restrictions
- 9 Aftermath
- 10 The WikiLeaks document
- 11 Public opinion
- 12 References
President Zelaya was promoting a controversial nonbinding poll on whether to include a fourth ballot box in the November elections on convening a constitutional convention to rewrite the constitution. He had ignored a restraining order in this regard. Opponents said his goal in doing so was to extend his term, although as scheduled the balloting would be simultaneous with the election of his replacement.
Executive decrees and their legal consequences
Just days before[when?] the date for the scheduled illegal survey, decree PCM-019-2009, which revokes decree PCM-05-2009 and was issued (but not published) in May, was published in the official paper of record for the government policy, La Gaceta.
Zelaya then issued a new executive decree PCM-020-2009 (La Gaceta article number 31945) which annulled decrees PCM-05-2009 and PCM-019-2009. The new decree called for a "Public Opinion Survey Convening a Constitutional Assembly" and referred to it as "an official activity of the Government of the Republic of Honduras".
According a legal analysis by former Supreme Court President Vilma Morales, Zelaya automatically ceased being President of Honduras with the publication of decree PCM-020-2009 and thus no coup d'état existed. However, PCM-027-2009 was never processed by the Honduran courts. This new decree published in La Gaceta 26 June 2009 explained further the purpose, form and objectives of the opinion poll, to be carried out by the National Institute of Statistics. But the courts had already made up their minds about every attempt that had to do with this issue. Zelaya's lawyers were also denied the possibility to participate in the process. PCM-027-2009 was sheltered in article 5 of the "Law of Citizen Participation" and articles 2 and 5 of the Honduran Constitution. Zelaya defined his actions as a non-binding opinion poll, but his political opponents presented his actions as a binding referendum oriented at reforming articles in the Honduran Constitution concerning forms of government and re-election.
Attorney General's office acts
On 27 May 2009, the Administrative Law Tribunal issued an injunction against holding the referendum at the request of the Honduran Attorney General Luis Alberto Rubi. On 16 June the Court of Appeals unanimously upheld the 27 May injunction. On 18 June, the Administrative Law Tribunal ordered Zelaya to comply with the ruling in writing within five days. The Attorney General's office filed a request for arrest and search warrants.
Supreme Court issues arrest and search warrants
On 26 June, the Honduran Supreme Court unanimously found that the Presidency had not complied with 16 June court order. It also found he was answerable to charges for crimes against the form of government, treason to the motherland, abuse of office and usurpation of functions that damaged the administration. It appointed Supreme Court Justice Tomás Arita Valle to try the case.
On 26 June, the Supreme Court issued a sealed (secret) arrest warrant against President Zelaya, signed by Justice Tomás Arita Valle. The interim government confirmed that the Supreme Court of Justice unanimously voted to appoint Tomás Arita Valle to hear the process in its preparatory and intermediate phases; and that he lawfully issued an arrest and raid warrant. The government also states that an investigation was conducted under the auspices of the Honduran Supreme Court that lasted for weeks.
Some pro-Zelaya supporters have sought to cast doubt on the Supreme Court's documentation. Jari Dixon Herrera Hernández, a lawyer with the Attorney General's office, said the order to arrest Zelaya came a day after the coup.
Zelaya's detention and exile
Soldiers stormed the president's residence in Tegucigalpa early in the morning of 28 June, disarming the presidential guard, waking Zelaya and putting him on a plane to Costa Rica. Colonel Bayardo said, "It was a fast operation. It was over in minutes, and there were no injuries, no deaths. We said, 'Sir, we have a judicial order to detain you.' " In Costa Rica, Zelaya told the pan-Latin American channel TeleSUR that he had been awakened by gunshots. Masked soldiers took his cell phone, shoved him into a van and took him to an air force base, where he was put on a plane. He said he did not know that he was being taken to Costa Rica until he landed at the airport in San José.
Within several hours of his removal, Zelaya spoke to media in San José, calling the events "a coup" and "a kidnapping." He stated that soldiers pulled him from his bed and assaulted his guards. Zelaya stated that he would not recognise anyone named as his successor, that he would be meeting with diplomats and that he wanted to finish his term in office.
Tanks patrolled the streets and military planes flew overhead. Soldiers guarded the main government buildings. The government television station and a television station that supports the president were taken off the air. Television and radio stations broadcast no news. The electrical power, phone lines, and international cable TV were cut or blocked throughout Honduras. Public transportation was suspended.
Later that day, the Supreme Court issued a statement that it had ordered the army to remove Zelaya from office. The Supreme Court stated "The armed forces, in charge of supporting the constitution, acted to defend the state of law and have been forced to apply legal dispositions against those who have expressed themselves publicly and acted against the dispositions of the basic law". On 30 June, the military's chief lawyer, Colonel Herberth Bayardo Inestroza Membreño, showed a detention order, signed 26 June by a Supreme Court judge, which ordered the armed forces to detain the president, identified by his full name of José Manuel Zelaya Rosales, at his home in the Tres Caminos area of the capital. It cited him for treason and abuse of authority, among other charges. Colonel Inestroza later stated that deporting Zelaya did not comply with the court order: "In the moment that we took him out of the country, in the way that he was taken out, there is a crime. Because of the circumstances of the moment this crime occurred, there is going to be a justification and cause for acquittal that will protect us." He said the decision was taken by the military leadership "in order to avoid bloodshed". He said "What was more beneficial, remove this gentleman from Honduras or present him to prosecutors and have a mob assault and burn and destroy and for us to have to shoot?" Colonel Inestroza also commented that Zelaya's allegiance to Hugo Chávez was hard to stomach and "It would be difficult for us, with our training, to have a relationship with a leftist government. That's impossible. I personally would have retired, because my thinking, my principles, would not have allowed me to participate in that."
Ramón Custodio, the head of the country's human rights commission, said that Zelaya's exile was a mistake and that the military made an "error" sending deposed President Manuel Zelaya into exile rather than holding him for trial. "I didn't know they would take Zelaya out of the country," Custodio said in an interview in the week of 13 August at his Tegucigalpa office. Honduras's Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case brought by a group of lawyers and judges arguing that the military broke the law taking Zelaya out of the country. On 17 August 2009, President Micheletti said that a mistake was made when Zelaya was put on a plane to Costa Rica instead of being held for trial: "It wasn’t correct. We have to punish whoever allowed that to happen. The rest was framed within what the constitution requires."
Congress removes Zelaya from office
The National Congress assembled in the morning. It first voted to accept Zelaya's resignation letter, dated 25 June, which Zelaya denied signing. It studied a special report on Zelaya, and by a show of hands, the National Congress – the majority of whom belonged to Zelaya's own Liberal party – appointed the President of the National Congress Roberto Micheletti, a member of Zelaya's party, to be president to succeed Zelaya. Noteworthy that the president changed his political leanings during his administration, from right to left, which earned him the antipathy by his party colleagues.
The Honduran National Congress unanimously agreed to:
- Under the Articles 1, 2,3,4, 205, 220, subsections 20, 218, 242, 321, 322, 323 of the Constitution of the Republic,
- Disapprove Zelaya's repeated violations of the constitution, laws and court orders.
- Remove Zelaya from office.
- Name the current President of Congress Roberto Micheletti to complete the constitutional period that ends on 27 January 2010.
Legality of ouster
Many governments, media, and human-rights organisations outside Honduras have termed the ouster a coup. A confidential US Embassy cable soon after, later leaked by Wikileaks, summarised the legal situation thus:
The Embassy perspective is that there is no doubt that the military, Supreme Court and National Congress conspired on June 28 in what constituted an illegal and unconstitutional coup against the Executive Branch, while accepting that there may be a prima facie case that Zelaya may have committed illegalities and may have even violated the constitution. There is equally no doubt from our perspective that Roberto Micheletti's assumption of power was illegitimate. Nevertheless, it is also evident that the constitution itself may be deficient in terms of providing clear procedures for dealing with alleged illegal acts by the President and resolving conflicts between the branches of government.
(The US government was not so unequivocal in its official statements at the time).
Arguments that Zelaya's removal was illegal have been advanced by several lawyers. On 24 July 2010 the US Ambassador in Tegucigalpa Hugo Llorens sent a classified cable finding the removal of President Zalaya was a coup. The Supreme Court never ruled on any of the charges filed by the public prosecutor on 26 June. The arrest warrant was issued for the purposes of taking a deposition from him. According to Edmundo Orellana, the events were constitutionally irregular for several reasons: because Zelaya was captured by the Armed Forces, not the National Police (Art. 273, 292); and because the Congress, not the courts, judged Zelaya to have broken the law (Arts. 303 and 304). Orellana concluded, "Violations of the Constitution cannot be put right with another violation. The Constitution is defended by subjecting oneself to it. Their violation translates into disregard for the State of Law and infringes on the very essence of the Law. Therefore, a coup d'Etat never has been and should never be the solution to a political conflict." Other civic and business leaders, even those opposed to Zelaya's referendum efforts, agreed that Zelaya was deprived of due process in his ouster.
Still, many people in Honduras, including most of the country's official institutions, claimed that there was a constitutional succession of power. In a statement to a subcomittee of the US House Committee on International Affairs, former Honduran Supreme Court Justice, Foreign Affairs minister, and law professor Guillermo Perez Cadalso said that all major governmental institutions agreed that Zelaya was violating the law. Supreme Court Justice Rosalinda Cruz said that, as a sovereign and independent nation, Honduras had the right to freely decide to remove a president who was violating Honduran laws. She added: "Unfortunately, our voice hasn’t been heard." She compared Zelaya's tactics, including his dismissal of the armed forces chief for obeying a court order to impound ballots to be used in the vote, with those of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez: "Some say it was not Zelaya but Chávez governing."
There is some small amount of middle ground between those who term the events a coup and those who call them a constitutionally-sound succession of power. On the one hand, several supporters of Zelaya's removal, including Micheletti and the top army lawyer, have admitted that sending Zelaya out of the country was illegal, although they argue it was justified by the need to prevent violence. Acting Honduran President Roberto Micheletti said forcing deposed President Manuel Zelaya to leave the country, instead of arresting him, was a mistake. On the other hand, a fraction of those who oppose the events consider the arrest warrant against Zelaya to be legal, although they say he was denied a fair trial.
An employee of the US Law Library of Congress studied the case and concluded that, although the military's decision to send Zelaya into exile was illegal, the judicial and legislative branches applied constitutional and statutory law in a manner that was judged to be in accordance with the Honduran legal system. This conclusion was disputed by lawmakers, Honduran constitutional law experts, and government officials, who requested that the LLoC report be retracted.
Independence of judiciary
A lack of an independent, professional judiciary was a factor in the inability of the Honduran government to process Zelaya through a political or criminal trial. The Honduran judiciary remains deeply politicised with the highest judicial offices still being distributed between the two main parties. By requiring them to be re-elected it makes them subject to policies of their sponsoring party. Eight of the judges were selected by the Liberal Party and seven by the National Party. According to a report by Heather Berkman of the University of California the politicisation of the justice system, including the Supreme Court, the Ministry of Public Security and the Public Ministry, inhibits the due process of law.
José Tomás Arita Valle was vice-minister for foreign affairs in the National Party government of President Ricardo Maduro. José Antonio Gutiérrez Navas, in 1998, spoke at the UN General Assembly, representing the Liberal Party government of Carlos Roberto Flores, at a session to commemorate fifty years of human rights. Oscar Fernando Chinchilla Banegas and Gustavo Enrique Bustillo Palma were National Party alternate members of Congress (2002–2006). The US State Department has noted that the judiciary and Attorney Generals's office is subject to corruption and political influence.
Historical significance of the 2009 coup
The 2009 coup d'état was a break from the country's previous unconstitutional transfers of executive power. In past Honduran coups, either one political party overthrew the other, preserving their traditional patron-client relations and taking the spoils of the state for those within their patronage network, or the military overthrew a civilian government so that it could stay in power itself, as happened multiple times during the 1960s and 1970s. This, however, was the first coup by a united upper class. The Honduran business community united across party lines, deciding that it was worth severing the traditional patron-client relations that they enjoyed through their affiliation with one of the dominant parties so that they could stop Zelaya in his effort to increase the participation of common citizens in the affairs of their government while he also drew the country closer to Venezuela. In past Honduran coups, ethnic and regional divisions created cleavages between economic and political elites that most often led Hondurans of Palestinian, Syrian, and Lebanese origin to support democratic and liberalizing measures while Tegucigalpa-based criollo elites clung to conservative and often anti-democratic political configurations. In contrast, this was a coup in which social class was the main galvanizing element.
Demonstrations surrounding Zelaya's removal
In response to the events, a number of demonstrations were held, some opposing the coup and some supporting it. Some of these are listed below.
On 28 June, hundreds of demonstrators against the coup put up roadblocks in the capital Tegucigalpa.
On 29 June, about 2,000 of anti-coup demonstrators spent the day in the city's main square.
On the same day, another demonstration supported Zelaya's removal, in what they described as defence of the constitution, around Tegucigalpa.
On 30 June, demonstrations in favour of the constitution and against Zelaya were held. In an emotional speech, Armeda Lopez said "Chavez ate Venezuela first, then Bolivia, but in Honduras that didn't happen. Here we will not let anyone come to rule us." Signboards included "Enough to illegality", "I love my constitution".
On 1 July, at around 10 on the morning, white dressed coup supporters emerged in the capital city Tegucigalpa. "Mel out, Mel out!" "Democracy yes, dictatorship no!", "Romeo, friend, the people are with you!" People from the religious sector, women's organisations, politics and government gave speeches in favour of the rule of law. Jorge Yllescas Olive said "Hondurans have saved our country, justice is on our side and we are demonstrating it to the world." Demonstrators also expressed opposition to Hugo Chávez's threats against Honduras.
On 3 July, around 70,000 people demonstrated in favour of the new government, and against Zelaya.
On 22 September, some hundreds of anti-coup protesters demonstrating outside the Brazilian embassy, where Zelaya had taken refuge, were dispersed by police.
Government opponents say that the pro-coup demonstrations were staged and/or paid by the government, giving evidence in some cases. It is claimed that pro-coup demonstrators were bused to the capital Tegucigalpa from all over the country, whereas similar buses with anti-coup demonstrators from the countryside were not allowed to enter the city.
Human rights abuses of the interim government
De facto President Roberto Micheletti ordered a curfew which initially lasted for the 48 hours from Sunday night (28 June) and to Tuesday (30 June) and has continued since then in an arbitrary way. According to Amnesty International and the International Observation Mission for the Human Rights Situation in Honduras, the curfew law was not published in the official journal La Gaceta and was not approved by Congress. Originally the curfew ran from 9:00 pm to 6:00 am That curfew was later revised to be in effect from 10 pm to 5 am, was extended twice, ended on 7 July, and was restarted again on 15 July. Amnesty International and the International Observation Mission stated that the curfew implementation is arbitrary, with curfew times announced on radio stations, changing randomly each day and between different regions of Honduras. On 1 July, Congress issued an order (decreto ejecutivo N° 011-2009) at the request of Micheletti suspending four constitutional guarantees during the hours the curfew is in effect. The "state of exception" declared on 1 July is equivalent to a state of siege, and suspended civil liberties including freedom of transit and due process, as well as permitting search and seizure without a warrant.
The ambassadors of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua said that on 29 June that they were detained and beaten by Honduran troops before being released. Venezuela's ambassador to the OAS announced before the OAS that those ambassadors and Patricia Rodas, the Zelaya government's Foreign Minister, had been captured. Minutes after that announcement, Armando Laguna, the Venezuelan ambassador in Tegucigalpa, reported that he and the other ambassadors had been freed. Laguna said that he and the other diplomats were seized when they visited Rodas. He said that Rodas was forced into a van and had been transferred to an air base. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez stated that the Venezuelan ambassador was assaulted by Honduran soldiers and left by the side of a road.
Also, allies of Zelaya, among them several government officials, were taken into custody by the military. Foreign Minister Patricia Rodas and the mayor of the city San Pedro Sula, Rodolfo Padilla Sunseri, were detained at military bases. According to a Narconews blog, several congressmen of the Democratic Unification Party (PUD) were arrested and the party's presidential candidate, César Ham, went into hiding.
According to the Venezuelan government's ABN news service, Tomás Andino Mencías, a member of the party, reported that PUD lawmakers were led away by the military when they tried to enter the parliament building for 28 June vote on Zelaya's deposal. A dozen former ministers from the Zelaya government went into hiding, some in foreign embassies, fearing arrest. Local media reported that at least eight ministers besides Rodas had been detained.
Hugo Chávez and Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez have both separately claimed that Honduran Foreign Minister Patricia Rodas has been detained by the military. Rodríguez said that the Cuban, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan ambassadors to Honduras had tried but were unable to protect Rodas from a group of masked soldiers who forcibly took her from their grasp. Rodas was sent to Mexico, which offered her asylum and help to resolve the situation.
Reuters on 29 June 2009, describing the situation in Honduras as a "media blackout," reported that the military had shut down several TV stations, radio stations, and newspaper's websites. Among the TV stations closed were CNN en Español, TeleSUR, and "a pro-Zelaya channel." Reuters said that "the few television and radio stations still operating on Monday [the 29th] played tropical music or aired soap operas and cooking shows," and "made little reference to the demonstrations or international condemnation of the coup. . . ." A government health worker interviewed by Reuters said that the anti-Zelaya newspapers El Heraldo and La Tribuna, and "some television channels controlled by the opposition" were the only ones still broadcasting on the morning of the 29th. The Miami Herald reported that the "crackdown on the media" began before dawn on the 28th. It said that only pro-Micheletti stations were allowed to broadcast and that they carried only news friendly to the new government. On 29 June, four Associated Press personnel were detained and removed from their hotel, but then released.
TeleSUR journalist Adriana Sívori, who was in Tegucigalpa reporting the clashes between the police and protesters, reported that she was arrested by the military under threat, and had her passport seized. Her detention was confirmed by the Associated Press. As soon as the international community learned of the detention, and after the quick intervention of the Venezuelan ambassador in Honduras, the journalist and the staff who accompanied her were released. Sívori was reportedly assaulted by the soldiers who detained her. TeleSUR was, until the detention and quick release of journalist Sívori, the only channel that was broadcasting live on all developments in the political crisis.
According to Diario El Tiempo, there was also some information that the newspaper Diario El Tiempo had been prohibited to broadcast information about the developments. Canal 11, located in Colonia de Miramontes, was also prohibited from broadcasting information about the developments. The Cable Color buildings, which also broadcasts programming of CNN and teleSUR, were surrounded by military forces. On 29 June, soldiers shut down Channel 8, a government station which was pro-Zelaya. Channel 36 was raided by soldiers minutes after the coup and remained off the air for a week; the Miami Herald of 1 July quoted owner Esdras López as saying that the building's occupants were detained during the raid. Channel 66 was raided and was off the air for a short time; according to some journalists, however, a Channel 66 program by Eduardo Maldonado, a popular radio and TV commentator who is pro-Zelaya, remained off the air for days. Maldonado went into hiding. The Miami Herald noted that Channel 21's signal was briefly interrupted while it was broadcasting a plea against censorship.
On Monday 29 June, in a replay of the military raids on the Jesuit radio station in El Progreso of the 1960s and 1970s, the Jesuits' progressive radio broadcasts were abruptly pulled off the air at four in the morning. On Sunday evening at 6 pm, just an hour after the coup government's curfew began, a military contingent broke into Radio Progreso's headquarters. With guns pointed, they shouted: "We’ve come to close down this piece of ****!" One broadcaster locked himself in to keep broadcasting throughout the night. Shortly after, another military convoy stopped outside Radio Progreso. A group of soldiers approached the radio station’s guard and asked him if there were any people still working inside. When the guard said no, the soldier in charge told him: "If we find someone inside, you will regret it." And while the coup government, led by Roberto Micheletti, a native of El Progreso, threatened to shut down the station with violence, popular organisations resisting the undemocratic change in their government criticised the station for "watering down" its reporting of the tense and dynamic situation.
According to a press release published on the website of Radio Globo Honduras, a station which has long sided with Zelaya, a group of 60 soldiers took the radio off the air and the employees, including Alejandro Villatoro, were allegedly threatened and intimidated. The station was allowed to resume transmission, but staff had to follow some rules which they believed limited freedom of expression. The website of the radio was down but has been re-established. Alejandro Villatoro said that he was arrested and kidnapped for some hours by the military forces. On or just before 4 August 2009, the National Telecommunications Commission (CONATEL) terminated Radio Globo's transmission frequency rights.
"Honduras' two leading radio networks, Radio América and Radio HRN, have urged Hondurans to resume their normal routine and not to protest." Honduran newspaper La Prensa reported on 30 June that an armed group of Zelaya supporters, attacked its main headquarters by throwing stones and other objects at their windows, until police intervened. According to the paper, it was discovered that the group was led by Venezuelan and Nicaraguan nationalities.[unreliable source?]
The Paris-based press freedom group Reporters Without Borders released a statement on 29 June stating that, "The suspension or closure of local and international broadcast media indicates that the coup leaders want to hide what is happening."
Carlos Lauría of the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists said: "The de facto government clearly used the security forces to restrict the news... Hondurans did not know what was going on. They clearly acted to create an information vacuum to keep people unaware of what was actually happening." However, in an interview published on 9 July 2009 in the Washington Post, Ramón Custodio López, Honduras's human rights ombudsman, said he had received no official complaints from journalists: "This is the first I have heard about an occupation or military raid of a station," he said. "I try to do the best job I can, but there are things that escape my knowledge."
There were demonstrations supporting and opposing Zelaya's removal from power. The Zelaya administration has been investigated and the prosecution has continued even though Zelaya has not been captured. Some organisations reported human rights violations and media restrictions. Zelaya made two open attempts to return to the country, which were rebuffed, and eventually returned clandestinely and sought asylum in the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa. Negotiations between the coup government and those seeking Zelaya's restitution continued a rocky path; although the San José-Tegucigalpa-Guaymuras Accord was signed by both sides, the two sides had differing interpretations as to the implications for Zelaya's restitution. Some Hondurans have hoped to move past the coup through the elections of 29 November.
On 7 March 2010, Zelaya announced on Venezuelan television that he "plans to write a book describing his ouster."
In May 2011, after more than year in exile in the Dominican Republic, Zelaya was allowed to return to Honduras. He did so on 28 May, and following that move, the OAS was to vote on readmitting Honduras to the body.
The WikiLeaks document
On 28 November 2010, the organisation WikiLeaks began releasing 251,287 confidential documents, which detail correspondence between the US State Department and US embassies around the world. Among these is a cable written by US Ambassador Hugo Llorens in late July 2009, which analyzes the legality of the removal of Zelaya under the Honduran constitution. Llorens concluded that although Zelaya might "have committed illegalities and...even violated the constitution", "there is no doubt that the military, Supreme Court and National Congress conspired on June 28 in what constituted an illegal and unconstitutional coup against the Executive Branch".
Dates of polling:
MOE and sample size:
Aug 2008-Jul 2009
+/- 3.3% (>1000 adults)
|COIMER & OP
+/− 4% (1,470 surveys)
|Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
9–13 Oct. 2009
|Do you favor Zelaya's expatriation?||Yes 41% / No 46% / NR 13%||Yes 17.4% / No 52.7% / NR 29.9%||Yes 38% / No 60% / NR 3%|
|Did Zelaya's actions justify his removal from office?||Yes 41% / No 28% / NR 31%|
|Favor constitutional convention to resolve crisis?||Yes 54% / No 43% / NR 11%|
|Favorable opinion of Manuel Zelaya?||Favorable 46% / Unfavorable 44%||Favorable 44.7% /
Unfavorable 25.7% /
"Regular" 22.1% / NR 7.5%
|Warm 37% / Cool 39% (Personal opinion)
Approve 67% / Disapprove 31% (Government actions)
|Favorable opinion of Roberto Micheletti?||Favorable 30% / Unfavorable 49%||Favorable 16.2% /
Unfavorable 56.5% /
"Regular" 17.1% / NR 10.2%
|Warm 28% / Cool 57% (personal opinion)
Approve 48% / Disapprove 50% (Government actions)
|Favorable opinion of Hugo Chávez?||Warm 10% / Cool 83% (personal opinion)|
|Zelaya should be restored?||Yes 51.6% / No 33% / NR 15.4%||Yes 46% / No 52% / NR 2% (Full powers)
Yes 49% / No 50% / NR 1% (Limited powers)
|Elections should go forward even if crisis unresolved?||Yes 66.4% / No 23.8% / NR 2.9%||Legitimate 54% / Illegitimate 42% / NR 4%|
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Results are based on face-to-face interviews with at least 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted in Aug. 24-Sept. 2008, and July 11-25, 2009, in Honduras. ...maximum margin of sampling error is ±3.3 percentage points....
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Para la realización del estudio se levantaron 1470 encuestas en 16 de los 18 departamentos del pais.... La encuesta se comenzó a levantar el 23 de agosto y finalizó el jueves 29 de agosto. El margen de error se estima en 4.0%.
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October 9-13, 2009; 621 Respondents