2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico
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 County Results
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| Elections in New Mexico |
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The 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 4, 2008. Voters chose five representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
New Mexico was won by the Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, by a 15.13% margin of victory; Obama took 56.91% of the vote while his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain of Arizona, took 41.78%. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered it as a safe blue state. Due to the extremely narrow margins of victory in the previous two presidential elections (less than 1% in 2004 and less than 0.1% in 2000), it started out as a swing state, but hypothetical general election match-up polls taken in the state continued to show a big lead for Obama. Obama's leads in the polls in New Mexico increased so much that McCain did not campaign nearly as much there as he did elsewhere, despite it neighboring his home state of Arizona. A large Hispanic and Native American as well as a trending Democratic population put Obama over the top.[1]
Primaries
Campaign
Predictions
There were 16 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
- D.C. Political Report: Democrat[2]
- Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat[3]
- Takeaway: Solid Obama[4]
- Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat[5]
- Washington Post: Leaning Obama[6]
- Politico: Leaning Obama[7]
- Real Clear Politics: Leaning Obama[8]
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama[6]
- CQ Politics: Safe Democrat[9]
- New York Times: Solid Democrat[10]
- CNN: Safe Democrat[11]
- NPR: Solid Obama[6]
- MSNBC: Solid Obama[6]
- Fox News: Democrat[12]
- Associated Press: Democrat[13]
- Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat[14]
Polling
Obama won a majority of the pre-election polls taken in the state, including sweeping all of them taken after September 14. The final three polls averaged the Democrat leading 55% to 43%.[15]
Fundraising
John McCain raised a total of $1,016,376 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,987,438.[16]
Advertising and visits
Obama and his interest groups spent $4,535,378. McCain and his interest groups spent $3,606,796.[17] The Democrat ticket visited the state five times to the Republicans' eight times.[18]
Analysis
 | This section possibly contains original research. (December 2016) |
The key voting bloc[according to whom?] in this state is Hispanics, which make up a plurality of the state's total population with 45%. George W. Bush received over 40% of the Hispanic vote nationally in 2004. This support was enough for Bush to nip John Kerry by approximately 6,000 votes in New Mexico in 2004. In the previous two elections, New Mexico had been a very close swing state. Al Gore won the state by 300 votes in 2000, which was even narrower than the controversial results in Florida. However, after the 2004 presidential election, support for Republicans in the Hispanic community collapsed.[citation needed] During the 2008 election, New Mexico was regarded as an Obama-leaning state although John McCain was from neighboring Arizona and held similar views on illegal immigration to those of Bush. Ultimately, McCain obtained 30% of the Hispanic vote.[citation needed]
Native Americans also represent a key voting demographic in New Mexico.[19] Obama won the Native American vote, 78–21%, and carried most of the counties within the confines of the Navajo Nation.[20]
The Republican base in New Mexico consists of the more rural southeastern part of the state which, while thinly populated, votes heavily Republican.[citation needed] Democrats are strongest in the state capital, Santa Fe, and its close-in suburbs. The city of Albuquerque and the southwestern part of the state both lean Democratic, but not as overwhelmingly as does Santa Fe. On a larger context, Southern New Mexico is typically more Republican while Northern New Mexico is traditionally more Democratic, while Albuquerque and other areas in the center tend to swing both ways.[citation needed]
In 2008, Obama carried the state by a 15-point margin, largely by dominating the Albuquerque area. He won Bernalillo County, home to Albuquerque itself, by 21 points; Kerry had won it by four points in 2004. While McCain dominated the southeastern part of the state, it was not nearly enough to overcome Obama's edge in the Albuquerque area.[21]
During the same election, former Democratic U.S. Representative Tom Udall, who had represented New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, defeated former Republican U.S. Representative Steve Pearce, who had represented New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, for an open U.S. Senate seat that was vacated by Republican Pete Domenici once it was discovered that he had brain cancer. Former Republican U.S. Representative Heather Wilson, who represented New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, vacated her seat to challenge Pearce in the GOP senatorial primary only to lose the nomination to him. As a result, all three of New Mexico's U.S. House seats were up for grabs, and Democrats captured all three of them. At the state level, Democrats increased their majorities in both houses of the New Mexico Legislature, picking up three seats in both the New Mexico House of Representatives and New Mexico Senate.
As of the 2016 presidential election[update], this is the last election in which Luna County voted for the Democratic candidate.
Results
| 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | Joe Biden | 472,422 | 56.91% | 5 | |
| Republican | John McCain | Sarah Palin | 346,832 | 41.78% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Matt Gonzalez | 5,327 | 0.64% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Bob Barr | Wayne Allyn Root | 2,428 | 0.29% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Chuck Baldwin | Darrell Castle | 1,597 | 0.19% | 0 | |
| Green | Cynthia McKinney | Rosa Clemente | 1,552 | 0.19% | 0 | |
| Totals | 830,158 | 100.00% | 5 | |||
| Voter turnout (voting age population) | 56.4% | |||||
Results breakdown
By county
| County | Obama% | Obama# | McCain% | McCain# | Others% | Others# | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo | 59.86% | 168,406 | 38.82% | 109,212 | 1.32% | 3,701 | 281,319 |
| Catron | 31.31% | 659 | 66.32% | 1,396 | 2.38% | 50 | 2,105 |
| Chaves | 37.00% | 8,160 | 61.80% | 13,630 | 1.20% | 264 | 22,054 |
| Cibola | 63.12% | 3,176 | 34.12% | 1,717 | 2.76% | 139 | 5,032 |
| Colfax | 54.53% | 3,465 | 44.07% | 2,800 | 1.40% | 89 | 6,354 |
| Curry | 32.31% | 4,655 | 66.52% | 9,585 | 1.17% | 169 | 14,409 |
| De Baca | 34.32% | 358 | 64.81% | 676 | 0.86% | 9 | 1,043 |
| Doña Ana | 57.82% | 38,574 | 40.79% | 27,211 | 1.39% | 930 | 66,715 |
| Eddy | 36.45% | 7,289 | 62.34% | 12,468 | 1.21% | 242 | 19,999 |
| Grant | 59.15% | 8,092 | 39.33% | 5,381 | 1.51% | 207 | 13,680 |
| Guadalupe | 70.85% | 1,541 | 28.28% | 615 | 0.87% | 19 | 2,175 |
| Harding | 41.22% | 256 | 57.49% | 357 | 1.29% | 8 | 621 |
| Hidalgo | 50.87% | 990 | 48.00% | 934 | 1.13% | 22 | 1,946 |
| Lea | 27.37% | 5,084 | 71.61% | 13,301 | 1.02% | 190 | 18,575 |
| Lincoln | 36.47% | 3,482 | 61.86% | 5,906 | 1.68% | 160 | 9,548 |
| Los Alamos | 52.49% | 5,709 | 45.84% | 4,986 | 1.66% | 181 | 10,876 |
| Luna | 51.64% | 4,289 | 46.44% | 3,857 | 1.91% | 159 | 8,305 |
| McKinley | 71.31% | 15,993 | 27.57% | 6,183 | 1.13% | 253 | 22,429 |
| Mora | 78.57% | 2,156 | 20.59% | 565 | 0.84% | 23 | 2,744 |
| Otero | 39.56% | 8,602 | 58.83% | 12,791 | 1.61% | 350 | 21,743 |
| Quay | 38.83% | 1,546 | 59.36% | 2,363 | 1.81% | 72 | 3,981 |
| Rio Arriba | 74.75% | 11,245 | 24.25% | 3,648 | 1.00% | 151 | 15,044 |
| Roosevelt | 34.08% | 2,270 | 64.33% | 4,285 | 1.59% | 106 | 6,661 |
| Sandoval | 38.50% | 17,645 | 59.82% | 27,418 | 1.68% | 768 | 45,831 |
| San Juan | 38.76% | 18,028 | 59.92% | 27,869 | 1.32% | 614 | 46,511 |
| San Miguel | 56.19% | 32,102 | 43.56% | 24,887 | 0.25% | 143 | 57,132 |
| Santa Fe | 76.76% | 53,802 | 22.03% | 15,443 | 1.21% | 849 | 70,094 |
| Sierra | 42.92% | 2,351 | 54.97% | 3,011 | 2.12% | 116 | 5,478 |
| Socorro | 59.37% | 4,643 | 38.50% | 3,011 | 2.14% | 167 | 7,821 |
| Taos | 81.54% | 13,384 | 17.22% | 2,827 | 1.24% | 204 | 16,415 |
| Torrance | 44.41% | 3,068 | 53.87% | 3,721 | 1.72% | 119 | 6,908 |
| Union | 28.39% | 492 | 70.28% | 1,218 | 1.33% | 23 | 1,733 |
| Valencia | 53.00% | 15,142 | 45.61% | 13,033 | 1.39% | 397 | 28,572 |
By congressional district
Barack Obama carried two of the state's three congressional districts, while John McCain just narrowly carried the other congressional district that simultaneously elected a Democrat to the U.S. House of Representatives.
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 39.64% | 60.07% | Heather Wilson (110th Congress) |
| Martin Heinrich (111th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 49.97% | 48.64% | Steve Pearce (110th Congress) |
| Harry Teague (111th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 37.79% | 61.01% | Tom Udall (110th Congress) |
| Ben R. Luján (111th Congress) |
Electors
Officially the voters of New Mexico cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New Mexico is allocated five electors because it has three congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of five electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all five electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[22] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and of the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body; instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All five were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[23]
- Brian Colon
- Annadelle Sanchez
- Tom Buckner
- Christy French
- Alvin Warren
References
- ^ Cost, Jay; Sean Trende (January 18, 2009). "Election Review, Part 3: The West". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 11, 2009.
- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
- ^ Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Adnaan (September 20, 2008). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved November 14, 2009.
- ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
- ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
- ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". politico.com. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
- ^ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
- ^ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived October 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
- ^ "roadto270". ap.org. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
- ^ Reports, Rasmussen. "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™". rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
- ^ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
- ^ "Page Not Found". fec.gov. Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
{{cite web}}: Cite uses generic title (help) - ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Paying Attention to the Native American Vote".
- ^ "New Mexico - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". elections.nytimes.com. Retrieved August 31, 2016.
- ^ "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved May 11, 2009.
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
- ^ New Mexico Secretary of State's office Archived November 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
