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List of regions by past GDP (PPP)

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For estimations of per-capita GDP in history, see List of regions by past GDP (PPP) per capita.

These are lists of regions and countries by their estimated real gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), the value of all final goods and services produced within a country/region in a given year. GDP dollar (international dollar) estimates here are derived from PPP estimates.

Methodology

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In the absence of sufficient data for nearly all economies until well into the 19th century, past GDP cannot be calculated, but at best only roughly estimated. In a first step, economic historians try to reconstruct the GDP per capita for a given political or geographical entity from the meagre evidence. This value is then multiplied by estimated population size, another determinant for which as a rule only little ancient data is available.

A key notion in the whole process is that of subsistence, the income level which is necessary for sustaining one's life. Since pre-modern societies, by modern standards, were characterized by a very low degree of urbanization and a large majority of people working in the agricultural sector, economic historians prefer to express income in cereal units. To achieve comparability over space and time, these numbers are then converted into monetary units such as International Dollars, a third step which leaves a relatively wide margin of interpretation.

The formula thus is: GDP (PPP) = GDP per capita (PPP) x population size

It should be stressed that, historically speaking, population size is the far more important multiplier in the equation. This is because, in contrast to industrial economies, the average income ceiling of premodern agrarian societies was quite low everywhere, possibly not higher than twice the subsistence level.[1] Therefore, the total GDP as given below primarily reflects the respective historical population size, and is much less indicative of contemporary living standards than, for example, estimations of past GDP per capita are.

According to the 20th-century macroeconomist Paul Bairoch, a pioneer in historical economic analysis,

it is obvious that by itself the volume of total GNP has no important significance, and that the volume of GNP is not by itself the expression of the economic strength of a nation.

Rather, Bairoch advocates a formula combining GNP per capita and total GNP to give a better measure of the economic performance of national economies.[2]

World

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1750–1990 (Bairoch)

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In his 1995 book Economics and World History, economic historian Paul Bairoch gave the following estimates in terms of 1960 US dollars, for GNP from 1750 to 1990, comparing what are today the Third World (Asia, Africa, Latin America) and the First World (Western Europe, Northern America, Japan)[3]

GNP (PPP) in billions of US dollars
Year 1960 dollars 1990 dollars
Third World[A] First World[B] Third World[A] First World[B]
1750 112 35 495 155
1800 137 47 605 208
1830 150 67 662 296
1860 159 118 702 521
1900 184 297 813 1,312
1913 217 430 958 1,899
1928 252 568 1,113 2,508
1938 293 678 1,294 2,994
1950 338 889 1,493 3,926
1970 810 2,450 3,577 10,820
1980 1,280 3,400 5,653 15,015
1990 1,730 4,350 7,640 19,210

A ^ Third World refers to Asia (excluding Japan), Africa, and Latin America.

B ^ First World refers to Europe, Russia, the United States, Canada, and Japan.

1–2008 (Maddison)

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The following estimates are taken exclusively from the 2007 monograph Contours of the World Economy, 1–2030 AD by the British economist Angus Maddison.[4]

When graphed, one can see that India was the world's largest economy from year 1 to year 1500, when it lost the position to China, who subsequently lost the position around 1890. China is reasserting its position as the world's largest economy, which it had lost. [5] There was little difference in GDP per capita based on level of development in earlier eras, so in 1500, China was the largest economy in the world, followed closely by India.[5]

GDP (PPP) in millions of 1990 International Dollars
Country / Region 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 1989 2008
Austria 213 298 1,414 2,093 2,483 4,104 8,419 23,451 25,702 85,227 124,791 198,004
Belgium 135 170 1,225 1,561 2,288 4,529 13,716 32,347 47,190 118,516 166,396 246,103
Denmark 72 144 443 569 727 1,471 3,782 11,670 29,654 70,032 93,728 135,037
Finland 8 16 136 215 255 913 1,999 6,389 17,051 51,724 84,092 127,676
France 2,366 2,763 10,912 15,559 19,539 35,468 72,100 144,489 220,492 683,965 1,000,286 1,423,562
Germany 1,225 1,435 8,256 12,656 13,650 26,819 72,149 237,332 265,354 944,755 1,302,212 1,713,405
Italy 6,475 2,250 11,550 14,410 14,630 22,535 41,814 95,487 164,957 582,713 906,053 1,157,636
Netherlands 85 128 723 2,072 4,047 4,288 9,952 24,955 60,642 175,791 247,906 411,055
Norway 40 80 183 266 361 777 2,360 5,988 17,728 44,852 76,733 132,365
Sweden 80 160 382 626 1,231 3,098 6,927 17,403 47,269 109,794 149,415 193,352
Switzerland 128 123 411 750 1,068 2,165 5,581 16,483 42,545 117,251 141,599 190,328
UK 320 800 2,815 6,007 10,709 36,232 100,180 224,618 347,850 675,941 940,908 1,446,959
12 country total 11,146 8,366 38,450 56,784 70,988 142,399 338,979 840,612 1,286,434 3,660,561 5,235,115 7,402,911
Portugal 180 255 606 814 1,638 3,043 4,219 7,467 17,615 63,397 102,922 154,132
Spain 1,867 1,800 4,495 7,029 7,481 12,299 19,556 41,653 61,429 266,896 454,166 797,927
Other 1,240 504 632 975 1,106 2,110 4,712 12,478 30,600 105,910 169,648 343,059
Total Western Europe 14,433 10,925 44,183 65,602 81,213 159,851 367,466 902,210 1,396,078 4,096,764 5,961,851 8,698,029
Eastern Europe 1,956 2,600 6,696 9,289 11,393 24,906 50,163 134,793 185,023 550,756 718,039 1,030,628
Former USSR 1,560 2,840 8,458 11,426 16,196 37,678 83,646 232,351 510,243 1,513,070 2,037,253 2,242,206
United States 272 520 800 600 527 12,548 98,374 517,383 1,455,916 3,536,622 5,703,521 9,485,136
Other Western offshoots 176 228 320 320 306 951 13,119 65,558 179,574 521,667 856,847 1,448,542
Total Western offshoots 448 748 1,120 920 833 13,499 111,493 582,941 1,635,490 4,058,289 6,560,368 10,933,678
Mexico 880 1,800 3,188 1,134 2,558 5,000 6,214 25,921 67,368 279,302 491,767 877,312
Other Latin America 1,360 2,760 4,100 2,629 3,788 9,921 21,097 94,875 347,960 1,110,158 1,735,919 3,168,621
Total Latin America 2,240 4,560 7,288 3,763 6,346 14,921 27,311 120,796 415,328 1,389,460 2,227,686 4,045,933
Japan 1,200 3,188 7,700 9,620 15,390 20,739 25,393 71,653 160,966 1,242,932 2,208,858 2,904,141
China 26,820 26,550 61,800 96,000 82,800 228,600 189,740 241,431 244,985 739,414 2,051,813 8,908,894
India[A] 33,750 33,750 60,500 74,250 90,750 111,417 134,882 204,242 222,222 494,832 1,043,912 3,415,183
Other east Asia 4,845 8,968 20,822 24,582 28,440 36,451 53,155 122,874 256,938 829,023 2,021,528 5,154,979
West Asia 10,120 12,415 10,495 12,637 12,291 15,270 22,468 40,588 106,283 548,120 855,130 1,905,346
Total Asia (excl. Japan) 75,535 81,683 153,617 207,469 214,281 391,738 400,245 609,135 830,428 2,621,624 5,972,383 19,384,402
Africa 8,030 13,835 19,383 23,473 25,776 31,266 45,234 79,486 203,131 549,993 889,922 1,734,918
World 105,402 120,379 248,445 331,562 371,428 694,598 1,110,951 2,733,365 5,331,689 16,022,888 26,576,359 50,973,935
Country / Region 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 1989 2008

A ^ From 1 AD to 1913 AD, India includes modern Pakistan and Bangladesh. From 1950 onwards, India refers only to the modern Republic of India.

Maddison' assumptions have been both admired and criticized by academics and journalists. By Bryan Haig, who has characterized Maddison's figures for 19th century Australia as "inaccurate and irrelevant",[6] by W. W. Rostow, according to whom "this excessive macroeconomic bias also causes him (Maddison) to mis-date, in my view, the beginning of what he calls the capitalist era at 1820 rather than, say, the mid-1780s."[7]

W. J. MacPherson has described Maddison's work on early medieval India of using "dubious comparative data."[8] Maddison's estimates have also been critically reviewed and revised by the Italian economists Giovanni Federico[9] and Elio Lo Cascio/Paolo Malanima (see below).[10]

However, economist and journalist Evan Davis has praised Maddison's research by citing it as a "fantastic publication" and that it was "based on the detailed scholarship of the world expert on historical economic data Angus Maddison." He also added that "One shouldn't read the book in the belief the statistics are accurate to 12 decimal places."[11]

Europe

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1830–1938 (Bairoch)

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The following estimates were made by the economic historian Paul Bairoch.[12] Contrary to most other estimates on this page, the GNP (at market prices) is given here in 1960 US dollars. Unlike Maddison, Bairoch allows for the fluctuation of borders, basing his estimates mostly on the historical boundaries at the given points in time.[13]

GNP (at market prices) in millions of 1960 US dollars
Country / Region 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1913 1925 1938
Austria – – – – – – – – – – 4,314 4,320
Austria-Hungary 7,210 8,315 9,190 9,996 11,380 12,297 15,380 19,400 23,970 26,050 – –
Baltic countries – – – – – – – – – – 2,298 2,760
Belgium 1,098 1,397 1,809 2,302 2,882 3,256 3,804 4,800 6,308 6,794 7,658 8,501
Bulgaria – – – 588 616 611 808 970 1,165 1,260 1,613 2,628
Czechoslovakia – – – – – – – – – – 6,822 8,050
Denmark 256 292 361 476 612 788 1,095 1,544 2,031 2,421 2,893 2,893
Finland 256 295 370 420 550 670 860 1,110 1,395 1,670 1,910 3,339
France 8,582 10,335 11,870 13,326 16,800 17,381 19,758 23,500 26,869 27,401 36,262 39,284
Germany 7,235 8,320 10,395 12,771 16,697 19,993 26,454 35,800 45,523 49,760 45,002 77,178
Greece – 200 220 250 365 440 640 780 910 1,540 2,340 4,200
Hungary – – – – – – – – – – 3,025 4,137
Ireland – – – – – – – – – – 1,862 1,907
Italy 7,570 8,951 8,666 10,466 11,273 11,745 12,435 14,820 15,598 17,624 19,510 24,701
Netherlands 913 1,105 1,318 1,502 1,823 2,188 2,660 3,164 4,150 4,660 6,696 7,987
Norway 316 378 490 642 728 886 1,041 1,286 1,601 1,834 2,370 3,812
Poland – – – – – – – – – – 7,325 12,885
Portugal 860 945 985 1,100 1,175 1,270 1,360 1,550 1,710 1,800 2,046 2,634
Romania – – 760 836 950 1,100 1,350 1,700 2,125 2,450 5,123 6,780
Russia/USSR 10,550 11,200 12,700 14,400 22,920 23,250 21,180 32,000 43,830 52,420 32,600 75,964
Serbia – – – 320 345 382 432 560 700 725 – –
Spain 3,600 4,150 4,700 5,400 5,300 5,400 5,675 6,500 7,333 7,450 9,498 8,511
Sweden 557 617 729 860 1,025 1,385 1,700 2,358 3,261 3,824 4,627 6,908
Switzerland 580 700 930 1,200 1,460 1,920 2,100 2,599 3,355 3,700 4,300 5,063
United Kingdom 8,245 10,431 12,591 16,072 19,628 23,551 29,441 36,273 40,623 44,074 43,700 56,103
Yugoslavia – – – – – – – – – – 3,870 5,221
Europe 58,152 66,997 77,937 91,073 114,966 126,975 146,723 188,534 231,550 256,845 257,434 376,947
Western Europe[13] 38,910 – – 63,670 – – – 126,900 - 163,780 179,830 231,560
Eastern Europe[13] 19,240 – – 27,400 – – – 61,640 – 93,060 77,600 145,390
Country / Region 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1913 1925 1938

1500–1870 (Lo Cascio/Malanima)

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The following estimates are taken from a revision of Angus Maddison's numbers for the whole of Europe by the Italian economists Elio Lo Cascio and Paolo Malanima.[14] According to their calculations, the basic level of European GDP (PPP) was historically higher, but its increase was less pronounced.

Year GDP (PPP) in millions of 1990 International Dollars
1500 111,680
1600 133,760
1700 159,440
1750 205,530
1800 253,900
1870 619,970

Empires

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Indian empires (1–1947 CE)

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See also: Economic history of India, Economy of India during British era (1793–1947), Economy of India under the British Raj, and Historic GDP Estimates for South Asia

Angus Maddison's below GDP estimates for Indian subcontinent (including modern Pakistan and Bangladesh) refer to the following empires:[4]

^ At year 1, year 1000, year 1500 and till the start of British colonisation in India in 17th century, India's GDP always varied between ~22 - 33% world's total GDP and was the largest economy in the world from year 1 until year 1500,[4] which dropped to 2% by Independence of India in 1947.[15] At the same time, the Britain's share of the world economy rose from 2.9% in 1700 up to 9% in 1870 alone.[16][17][18]

GDP (in 2023 international dollars[19]
Year Indian subcontinent Per Capita Avg GDP growth rate GDP (% World) Population Population (% World)
1 33,750,000,000 450 – 32.0 70,000,000 32.5
1000 33,750,000,000 450 0.0% 28.0 72,500,000 28
1500 60,500,000,000 550 0.117% 24.4 79,000,000 25.1
1600 74,250,000,000 550 0.205% 22.4 100,000,000 24.3
1700 90,750,000,000 550 0.201% 24.4 165,000,000 27.36
1820 111,417,000,000 533 0.171% 16 209,000,000 20.1
1870 134,882,000,000 533 0.975% 12.1 253,000,000 19.9
1913 204,242,000,000 599 0.965% 7.5 303,700,000 17
1950 30,600,000,000 619 0.23% 4.2 359,000,000 14.2

Chinese empires

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Angus Maddison's below GDP estimates for China refer to the following empires:[4]

GDP in 2023 international dollars
Year Chinese region per capita Avg GDP growth rate GDP (% World) Population Population (% World) Period
1600 96,000,000,000 600 0.44% 28.95 160,000,000 28.77 Ming dynasty
1700 82,800,000,000 600 -0.15% 22.29 138,000,000 22.87 Qing dynasty
1820 228,600,000,000 600 0.85% 32.91 381,000,000 36.57
1870 189,740,000,000 530 -0.37% 17.08 358,000,000 28.06
1913 241,431,000,000 552 0.56% 8.83 437,140,000 24.38 Republic of China

British Empire and India

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Goedele De Keersmaeker estimated the GDP of the British Empire using Angus Maddison's data. Keersmaeker estimated that the British Empire's share of world GDP was 24.28% in 1870 and 19.7% in 1913. The empire's largest economy in 1870 was British India with a 12.15% share of world GDP, followed by the United Kingdom with a 9.03% share. The empire's largest economy in 1913 was the United Kingdom with an 8.22% share of world GDP, followed by British India with a 7.47% share.[20]

Roman Empire

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See also: Roman economy and Byzantine economy

Much work in estimating past GDP has been done in the study of the Roman economy, following the pioneering studies by Keith Hopkins (1980) and Raymond Goldsmith (1984).[21] The estimates by Peter Temin, Angus Maddison, Branko Milanović and Peter Fibiger Bang follow the basic method established by Goldsmith, varying mainly only in their set of initial numbers; these are then stepped up to estimations of the expenditure checked by those on the income side. Walter Scheidel/Steven Friesen determine GDP on the relationship between certain significant economic indicators which were historically found to be plausible; two independent control assumptions provide the upper and lower limit of the probable size of the Roman GDP.[22]

B ^ Decimal fractions rounded to the nearest tenth. Italic numbers not directly given by the authors; they are obtained by multiplying the respective value of GDP per capita by estimated population size.

The GDP per capita of the Byzantine Empire, the continuation of the Roman Empire in the east, has been estimated by the World Bank economist Branko Milanović to range between $680 and 770 (in 1990 International Dollars) at its peak around 1000 AD, that is the reign of Basil II.[23] The Byzantine population size at the time is estimated to have been 12 to 18 million.[24] This would yield a total GDP somewhere between $8,160 and 13,860 million.

GDP in 2023 international dollars
Year Roman/Byzantine Empire per capita GDP (% World) Population Population (% World)
14 25,100,000,000 570 24 44,000,000 20
1000 8,160,000,000 680 6.8 12,000,000 4.5

See also

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References

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Citations

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  1. ^ Milanovic 2006, p. 460, 468:

    In conclusion, the fact that the average incomes in the most developed agricultural economies like Augustan Rome and Basil's Byzantium were about twice or less than the subsistence minimum might indicate that the pre-industrial societies were unlikely to ever exceed that ceiling. This in turn has implications for our assessment of the average standard of living in other, non-Western, pre-industrial economies like those of China, India, pre-Columbian Americas, and Africa....A further implication of these calculations is that a realistic maximum income that could be envisaged for the pre-industrial societies might be a bit more than twice the subsistence minimum, or around $PPP 1000 (at 1990 international prices).
  2. ^ Bairoch 1976, p. 282
  3. ^ Paul Bairoch (1995). Economics and World History: Myths and Paradoxes. University of Chicago Press. p. 95.
  4. ^ a b c d Maddison 2007, p. 379, table A.4.
  5. ^ a b Cox, Wendell (21 September 2015). "500 YEARS OF GDP: A TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES". New Geography. Retrieved 4 September 2020.
  6. ^ Haig, Bryan. 2005. "Review of The World Economy: Historical Statistics by Angus Maddison," Economic Reports, volume 81.
  7. ^ Rostow, W. W. "Reviewed Work(s): Phases of Capitalist Development. by Angus Maddison," The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 45, No. 4. (Dec., 1985), pp. 1026-1028.
  8. ^ MacPherson, W. J. "Reviewed Work(s): Class Structure and Economic Growth. India and Pakistan since the Moghuls by Angus Maddison." The Economic Journal, Vol. 82, No. 328. (Dec., 1972), pp. 1470-1472.
  9. ^ Federico 2002, pp. 111–120
  10. ^ Lo Cascio, Malanima Dec. 2009, pp. 391–420
  11. ^ "China's magnificent historic past". BBC News. 2005-03-10. Retrieved 2010-05-08.
  12. ^ Bairoch 1976, pp. 281, table 4; 295, table 10
  13. ^ a b c The border between "Western Europe" and "Eastern Europe" as defined by Bairoch corresponds to the Iron Curtain, with "Eastern Europe" being identical to the Eastern Bloc (Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Romania, Poland, and the USSR plus Albania). All the rest of Europe makes up "Western Europe" (Bairoch 1976, pp. 317, 319).
  14. ^ Lo Cascio, Malanima Dec. 2009, p. 411, table 6
  15. ^ Jeffrey G. Williamson, David Clingingsmith (August 2005). "India's Deindustrialization in the 18th and 19th Centuries" (PDF). Harvard University. Retrieved 18 May 2017.
  16. ^ James Cypher (2014). The Process of Economic Development. Routledge. ISBN 9781136168284.
  17. ^ Broadberry, Stephen; Gupta, Bishnupriya (2005). "Cotton textiles and the great divergence: Lancashire, India and shifting competitive advantage, 1600–1850" (PDF). International Institute of Social History. Department of Economics, University of Warwick. Retrieved 5 December 2016.
  18. ^ Paul Bairoch (1995). Economics and World History: Myths and Paradoxes. University of Chicago Press. p. 89.
  19. ^ Maddinson, Angus (2001). HS-8: The World Economy 1-2001 AD. OECD. pp. 241, 243, 261, 263, 264.
  20. ^ Goedele De Keersmaeker (2017), Polarity, Balance of Power and International Relations Theory: Post-Cold War and the 19th Century Compared, page 90, Springer Science+Business Media
  21. ^ Scheidel, Walter; Morris, Ian; Saller, Richard, eds. (2007): The Cambridge Economic History of the Greco-Roman World, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0-521-78053-7
  22. ^ Scheidel, Friesen Nov. 2009, pp. 63–72
  23. ^ Milanovic 2006, p. 468
  24. ^ Milanovic 2006, p. 461

Bibliography

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GDP of the Roman Empire
GDP of the Byzantine Empire
  • Milanovic, Branko (2006): "An Estimate of Average Income and Inequality in Byzantium around Year 1000", Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp. 449–470
European GDP per capita
  • Bairoch, Paul (1976): "Europe's Gross National Product: 1800–1975", Journal of European Economic History, Vol. 5, pp. 273–340
Angus Maddison — reviews and revisions
  • Maddison, Angus (2007): "Contours of the World Economy, 1–2030 AD. Essays in Macro-Economic History", Oxford University Press, ISBN 978-0-19-922721-1, p. 379, table A.4.
  • Federico, Giovanni (2002): "The World Economy 0–2000 AD: A Review Article", European Review of Economic History, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 111–120 — review
  • Lo Cascio, Elio; Malanima, Paolo (Dec. 2009): "GDP in Pre-Modern Agrarian Economies (1–1820 AD). A Revision of the Estimates", Rivista di storia economica, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 391–420 — critique of Maddison's estimates
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