2008 Russian presidential election

The Russian Presidential election of 2008, held on March 2, 2008 led to the election of Dmitry Medvedev, a Kremlin-backed candidate supported by incumbent president Vladimir Putin, as the next President of Russia. He defeated candidates of the Communist party, the nationalist LDPR, pro-Western parties, and the Democratic Party of Russia.

Сandidates

Registered candidates

Four candidates successfully registered their bids in Central Electoral Commission:

• Andrey Bogdanov, leader of the Democratic Party of Russia. Registered candidate on January 24.
• Dmitry Medvedev - Deputy Prime Minister since 2005. He was supported by then-incumbent president Vladimir Putin and the parties United Russia, Fair Russia, Agrarian Party, Russian Ecological Party "The Greens" and Civilian Power. Registered candidate on January 21.
• Vladimir Zhirinovsky - Nationalist Deputy Speaker of the State Duma and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia. He ran for presidency thrice: in 1991, 1996 and 2000, his best result was third with 7.81% support. Registered candidate on December 26.
• Gennady Zyuganov - Leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and former presidential candidate, who ran for President in 1996 (when he came short just a few percent of the votes) and 2000, but not in 2004. Officially nominated on December 15, 2007 with 215 of 218 votes in favor. Registered candidate on December 26.

Boris Nemtsov, former Vice Prime Minister in Sergei Kiriyenko's Cabinet, was nominated by the Union of Right Forces on December 18, 2007 and became a registered candidate on December 22. He withdrew his bid on December 26, 2007 and called on his supporters to vote for Kasyanov instead.

Dismissed candidates

Central Election Commission disqualified a number of candidates.

• Mikhail Kasyanov, a former Prime Minister and current leader of the People's Democratic Union, was the fifth candidate. It was not known if Kasyanov would continue his candidacy after Garry Kasparov had entered the race, but on December 8, 2007 he reaffirmed he would run in the election. Registered candidate on December 14. He had registered successfully, but after it was decided that too many of his signatures of support were forged, he was disqualified. Kasyanov appealed the decision to the Supreme Court, which rejected the appeal on February 6, 2008. The Kremlin-supported Bogdanov has also had a similar criminal investigation opened against him, but it was reported that even if the accusations are proven, his candidacy will not be dismissed.

• Vladimir Bukovsky - Soviet-era dissident. On August 3, 2007 he received a new Russian passport at the Russian Embassy in London. He arrived in Moscow in October to launch his campaign. His bid was refused because he didn't live in Russia in the last 10 years, which is required by the law.

• Nikolai Kuryanovich - Ultranationalist member of the State Duma; an open admirer of both Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin.

• Oleg Shenin - The leader of the small, hardline Communist Party of the Soviet Union (Shenin), which should not be confused with the larger UCP-CPSU. His bid was not registered due to bureaucratic mistakes in his documents.

Declared candidates

Many Russian politicians have publicly declared their intention to run for President in 2008, but didn't apply for candidacy:

• Garry Kasparov, former World Chess Champion and United Civil Front leader. Before announcing his candidacy, he was previously inclined to endorse Viktor Gerashchenko. He failed to nominate by the deadline, citing government obstructions in finding a suitable congress venue as the reason.

• Alexander Donskoy - Mayor of Arkhangelsk, currently charged with abuse of office.

• Viktor Gerashchenko - Former head of the Central Bank, former deputy of the nationalist Rodina party who has now joined the Other Russia coalition He was initially the favoured candidate of Garry Kasparov.

• Sergei Gulyayev - Former St Petersburg Yabloko regional legislator, announced his intention to run, despite the fact that Yabloko's leader has also declared his intention to stand. Gulyayev was the fourth candidate from the Other Russia coalition to announce his candidacy.

• Gennadiy Seleznyov - Former Speaker of the Duma (in 1995-2003), former member of the CPRF, leader of the socialist Party of Russia's Rebirth.

• Grigory Yavlinsky, Leader of the Yabloko party, who also stood for the presidency in 1996 and in 2000, was widely expected to run for presidency as united candidate of liberal parties. However, on Yabloko congress December 14, 2007 it was announced that Yavlinsky and his party would support the candidacy of Bukovsky.

Fair Russia announced on December 7, 2007 that they would not field their own candidate and will support another party's candidate instead (likely United Russia's).

Potential Candidates

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the Russian presidential election, 2008

According to recent opinion polls, Dmitry Medvedev, the chosen successor of current president Vladimir Putin, is expected to receive anything up to 82% of the vote The most popular oppositional candidate, according to this poll, appears to be the communist leader Gennady Zuganov, however, he is projected to receive between 6 and 15% of the vote.

An opinion poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center, published after Vladimir Putin announced he would head the electoral list of United Russia, showed a continued lead for Medvedev and Ivanov, with Viktor Zubkov receiving ratings of only four percent.

Kremlin-backed candidate

Vladimir Putin, who is barred by the Russian Constitution from seeking a third consecutive term, has officially endorsed Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. According to Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov if Putin resigned as president early an interim president would be appointed, therefore Putin could run and be elected president again since the this third term would not be consecutive to the first two (separated by the short interim presidency).

On December 10, 2007, Putin announced that he would support Dmitry Medvedev as his successor. Medvedev will also be backed by United Russia, Fair Russia, the Agrarian Party of Russia and Civilian Power. Medvedev was officially nominated on December 17 at a United Russia party congress, where Putin publicly agreed to become PM after the presidential election if Medvedev won.

The Other Russia

There have been attempts by the Other Russia coalition to find a single candidate for the liberal opposition to unite around. The most prominent Other Russia activist, Garry Kasparov, had ruled himself out of the race. A number of Other Russia coalition members have also launched their own campaigns, including Viktor Gerashchenko (who was favored by Kasparov) and Mikhail Kasyanov. Others, such as Grigory Yavlinsky and the right-wing Union of Right Forces, have refused to cooperate with the Other Russia due to the inclusion in the coalition of left and nationalistic groups such as Eduard Limonov's National Bolshevik Party and Viktor Anpilov's Workers' Party. It is therefore unlikely that the opposition will be able to unite around a single candidate, and likely that the official Kremlin candidate will benefit not only from the continued popularity of Vladimir Putin and his United Russia party, but a splintered vote amongst all the opposition candidates.

Speculations

A number of other Russian politicians have speculated that they may wish to stand for the presidency, without formally declaring their intentions. These are, in alphabetical order:

• Andrei Lugovoi number two on the federal list of candidates for the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia in the Russian legislative election, 2007, suggested in an interview that he may stand for the presidency at a later date. Lugovoi later retracted his remarks, saying he supports the candidacy of Vladimir Zhirinovsky in 2008.
• Current Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, who as of September 2007 has not ruled out launching a presidential bid if his tenure is successful.
• Some Russian nationalists, such as the Movement Against Illegal Immigration, have said they would like Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to become President in 2008, a move which is not possible under the Russian constitution.

Incident

During the pre-election debates on the Star TV on February 20, Nikolai Gotsa, a representative of Bogdanov, accused Vladimir Zhirinovsky and his party in lies and betrayal of their supporters. He accused them in voting in favor of government initiatives they criticize when in public. Zhirinovsky replied fiercely, insulting Gotsa, calling him "sick man, a schizoid", "bastard", and even punched him when they went off the cameras. Bogdanov and Gotsa launched legal issue against Zhirinovsky. On February 28, on another debate, Bogdanov claimed he had a personal talk with Zhirinovsky, and that the latter has threatened his life in and demanded to withdraw the issue.

Election fairness

On February 27, 2008, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe OSCE announced that it would not be able to monitor the 2nd March elections due to restrictions imposed by the Russian authorities. According to observers from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Russia's presidential elections reflected the will of voters, but questioned the fairness of the polls. Andreas Gross, head of the group from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), said the vote was a "reflection of the will of the electorate whose democratic potential unfortunately has not been tapped." The Commonwealth of Independent States observer mission said the election was free and democratic. "The CIS observer mission states that the election is a major factor in the further democratization of public life in the Russian Federation, and recognizes it as free, open and transparent," said Nauryz Aidarov, head of the CIS mission.

The head of Russia's electoral commission Vladimir Churov said that media coverage for the presidential election had been Mr Churov characterised coverage of the campaign as "fair but not equal"..

External links

• TrendLines Research International Election Projections Monthly Tracking chart of polling sentiment for the 3 leading contenders in next Russian Presidential election.