2014 Victorian state election: Difference between revisions
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==Polling== |
==Polling== |
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Polling conducted by [[Newspoll]] and published in ''[[The Australian]]'' is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. [[Sample size|Sampling sizes]] usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared [[margin of error]] is ±3 percentage points. |
Polling conducted by [[Newspoll]] and published in ''[[The Australian]]'' is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. [[Sample size|Sampling sizes]] usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared [[margin of error]] is ±3 percentage points. |
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Polling conducted by '''Essential Research''' is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. [[Sample size|Sampling sizes]] usually consist of around 800–1200 electors. The declared [[margin of error]] is ±3 percentage points. |
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|+'''Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling''' |
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| colspan="8" style="font-size:80%; background:#cef;"|[http://polling.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=12 Polling] conducted by [[Newspoll]] and published in ''[[The Australian]]''.<br /> |
| colspan="8" style="font-size:80%; background:#cef;"|[http://polling.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=12 Polling] conducted by [[Newspoll]] and published in ''[[The Australian]]''.<br /> |
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{| class="toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; text-align:center; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;" |
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|+'''Essential Research Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling''' |
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! |
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! colspan="5"|Primary vote |
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! colspan="2"|[[Two-party-preferred vote|TPP vote]] |
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! |
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! style="background:#adf;"|LIB/NAT |
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! style="background:#f66;"|ALP |
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! style="background:#90ee90;"|GRN |
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! style="background:#ff0" | PUP |
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! style="background:#ff0;"|OTH |
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! style="background:#00bfff;"|L/NP |
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! style="background:#f66;"|ALP |
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|- |
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! May 2014 |
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|38% |
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|40% |
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|10% |
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|4% |
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|8% |
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| style="background:#00bfff;"|47% |
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| style="background:#f66;"|53% |
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|- |
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! April 2014 |
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|42% |
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|39% |
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|11% |
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|2% |
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|6% |
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| style="background:#00bfff;"|49% |
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| style="background:#f66;"|51% |
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|- |
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! March 2014 |
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|42% |
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|39% |
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|9% |
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|2% |
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|8% |
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| style="background:#00bfff;"|50% |
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| style="background:#f66;"|50% |
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|- |
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! February 2014 |
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|37% |
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|42% |
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|12% |
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|2% |
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|6% |
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| style="background:#00bfff;"|45% |
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| style="background:#f66;"|55% |
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|- |
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! January 2014 |
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|40% |
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|40% |
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|11% |
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|2% |
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|6% |
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| style="background:#00bfff;"|48% |
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| style="background:#f66;"|52% |
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|- |
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! December 2013 |
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|43% |
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|40% |
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|9% |
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|3% |
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|6% |
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| style="background:#00bfff;"|50% |
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| style="background:#f66;"|50% |
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|- |
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! November 2013 |
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|41% |
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|38% |
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|13% |
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| - |
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|8% |
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| style="background:#00bfff;"|48% |
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| style="background:#f66;"|52% |
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|- |
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! March 2013 |
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|45% |
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|36% |
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|12% |
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| - |
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|7% |
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| style="background:#00bfff;"|52% |
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| style="background:#f66;"|48% |
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|- |
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! Nov–Dec 2012 |
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|43% |
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|39% |
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|11% |
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| - |
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|7% |
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| style="background:#00bfff;"|50% |
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| style="background:#f66;"|50% |
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|- |
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! style="background:#b0e9db;"|[[Victorian state election, 2010|2010 election]] |
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| style="background:#b0e9db;"|44.8% |
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| style="background:#b0e9db;"|36.2% |
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| style="background:#b0e9db;"|11.2% |
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| style="background:#b0e9db;"| - |
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| style="background:#b0e9db;"|7.8% |
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| style="background:#00bfff;"|51.6% |
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| style="background:#f66;"|48.4% |
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|- |
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| colspan="8" style="font-size:80%; background:#cef;"|[http://essentialvision.com.au/state-voting-intention-victoria-2 Polling] conducted by '''Essential Research'''.<br /> |
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The next Victorian state election is scheduled for 29 November 2014. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition minority government, currently led by Premier Denis Napthine, will be challenged by the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition, currently led by Daniel Andrews.
Victoria has compulsory voting and uses preferential ballot in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).
Date
Terms are fixed at four years unless dissolved earlier by the Governor. The election will occur in line with the fixed-term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.[1]
Background
The Coalition won the 2010 Victorian state election with 45 seats to 43 in the 88-member lower house, a swing of 12 seats, defeating the 11-year Labor government.
With a Coalition MP as Speaker, the government operated with a one-seat margin of 44 seats to 43, until the resignation of Geoff Shaw, the member for Frankston, from the Liberal Party on 6 March 2013.[2] This means the government now has only 43 votes on the floor of the parliament, equal to Labor's total. Partly due to Shaw's defection, Premier Ted Baillieu resigned later on 6 March and was succeeded as Liberal leader and Premier by Ports Minister Denis Napthine. Shaw verbally guaranteed the Napthine Government support on matters of supply and confidence, allowing it to stay in office as a minority government.
The government operates with a one-seat margin in the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, with 21 Coalition, 16 Labor and 3 Greens members.[3][4]
Labor retained seats at the Broadmeadows, Niddrie, Melbourne and Lyndhurst by-elections.
Casual vacancies were created in various Legislative Council seats by the departures of Labor MP Martin Pakula (who moved to the Legislative Assembly seat of Lyndhurst)[5] (Western Metropolitan) and Liberal MPs Donna Petrovich[6] (Northern Victoria) & Philip Davis[7] (Eastern Victoria). Their seats were filled by Cesar Melhem,[8] Amanda Millar[9] and Andrew Ronalds[10] respectively, each being appointed by a joint sitting of Parliament.
Redistribution
A redistribution of Victoria's state electoral boundaries took place from 2012 to 2013. The final boundaries were gazetted on 17 October 2013 and will be used for the 2014 state election.[11]
Fifteen electorates were abolished, namely Ballarat East (Labor), Ballarat West (Labor), Benalla (Nationals), Clayton (Labor), Derrimut (Labor), Doncaster (Liberal), Keilor (Labor), Kilsyth (Liberal), Lyndhurst (Labor), Mitcham (Liberal), Murray Valley (Nationals), Rodney (Nationals), Scoresby (Liberal), Seymour (Liberal) and Swan Hill (Nationals).[11]
The fifteen new seats are Buninyong (Labor, largely replacing Ballarat East), Clarinda (Labor, largely replacing Clayton), Croydon (Liberal, largely replacing Kilsyth), Eildon (Liberal, combining sections of abolished Seymour with areas of existing Gembrook), Euroa (Nationals, largely replacing Benalla), Keysborough (Labor, largely replacing Lyndhurst), Murray Plains (Nationals, largely replacing Swan Hill and parts of Rodney), Ovens Valley (Nationals, largely replacing Murray Valley), Ringwood (Liberal, largely replacing Mitcham), Rowville (Liberal, largely replacing Scoresby), St Albans (Labor, largely replacing Derrimut), Sunbury (Labor, created from parts of Macedon and Yuroke), Sydenham (Labor, largely replacing Keilor), Wendouree (Liberal, largely replacing Ballarat West), and Werribee (Labor, formed from parts of Lara and Tarneit).[11]
Five electorates changed boundaries notionally, including Wendouree, a notional Liberal seat created from the Labor seat of Ballarat West. According to ABC psephologist Antony Green, the Labor-held seats of Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon and Yan Yean became notionally Liberal.[11]
Retiring MPs
Members who have chosen not to renominate are as follows:
Labor
- Ann Barker MLA (Oakleigh) – announced 25 November 2013[12]
- Liz Beattie MLA (Yuroke) – announced 25 November 2013[13]
- Christine Campbell MLA (Pascoe Vale) – announced 13 November 2013[14]
- Joanne Duncan MLA (Macedon) – announced 4 November 2013[15]
- Joe Helper MLA (Ripon) – announced 3 December 2012[16]
- Justin Madden MLA (Essendon) – announced 15 November 2013[17]
- John Pandazopoulos MLA (Dandenong) – announced 26 November 2013[18]
- Ian Trezise MLA (Geelong) – announced 3 February 2014[19]
- Candy Broad MLC (Northern Victoria) – announced 20 November 2013 [20]
- Kaye Darveniza MLC (Northern Victoria) – announced 29 November 2013[21]
- John Lenders MLC (Southern Metropolitan) – announced 18 November 2013[22]
- Matt Viney MLC (Eastern Victoria) – announced 15 November 2013[17]
Liberal
- Nicholas Kotsiras MLA (Bulleen) – announced 12 January 2014[23]
- Andrew McIntosh MLA (Kew) – announced 17 December 2013[24]
- Ken Smith MLA (Bass) – announced 13 January 2014[25]
- Andrea Coote MLC (Southern Metropolitan) – announced 19 January 2014[26]
- David Koch MLC (Western Victoria) – announced 14 March 2014 [27]
- Jan Kronberg MLC (Eastern Metropolitan) – announced 19 March 2014 [28]
National
- Hugh Delahunty MLA (Lowan) – announced 10 February 2014[29]
- Jeanette Powell MLA (Shepparton) – announced 8 February 2014[30]
- Bill Sykes MLA (Benalla) – announced 9 January 2014[31]
- Peter Hall MLC (Eastern Victoria) – announced 24 February 2014[32]
Polling
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.
| Primary vote | TPP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | NAT | ALP | GRN | OTH | L/NP | ALP | |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | 35% | 3% | 39% | 13% | 10% | 47% | 53% |
| Sep–Oct 2013 | 36% | 3% | 38% | 14% | 9% | 47% | 53% |
| Jul–Aug 2013 | 37% | 4% | 38% | 13% | 8% | 49% | 51% |
| May–Jun 2013 | 40% | 3% | 35% | 12% | 10% | 51% | 49% |
| Mar–Apr 2013 | 38% | 5% | 37% | 12% | 8% | 50% | 50% |
| Jan–Feb 2013 | 35% | 4% | 38% | 13% | 10% | 47% | 53% |
| Nov–Dec 2012 | 33% | 3% | 38% | 16% | 10% | 45% | 55% |
| Sep–Oct 2012 | 35% | 2% | 41% | 13% | 9% | 45% | 55% |
| Jul–Aug 2012 | 37% | 4% | 35% | 13% | 11% | 50% | 50% |
| Mar–Apr 2012 | 37% | 5% | 32% | 17% | 9% | 51% | 49% |
| Jan–Feb 2012 | 42% | 3% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 53% | 47% |
| Nov–Dec 2011 | 40% | 3% | 34% | 15% | 8% | 51% | 49% |
| Sep–Oct 2011 | 43% | 4% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 55% | 45% |
| Jul–Aug 2011 | 44% | 4% | 28% | 15% | 9% | 57% | 43% |
| 2010 election | 38.0% | 6.7% | 36.3% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 23–25 Nov 2010 | 40% | 5% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. | |||||||
| Better Premier | Napthine | Andrews | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napthine | Andrews | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | ||
| Jan–Feb 2014 | 39% | 28% | 43% | 35% | 32% | 33% | |
| Sep–Oct 2013 | 41% | 27% | 42% | 36% | 35% | 31% | |
| Jul–Aug 2013 | 47% | 25% | 53% | 31% | 38% | 32% | |
| May–Jun 2013 | 49% | 26% | 53% | 26% | 35% | 34% | |
| Mar–Apr 2013 | 43% | 24% | 50% | 19% | 42% | 28% | |
| Jan–Feb 2013 | 38%1 | 31% | 31%1 | 53%1 | 30% | 36% | |
| Nov–Dec 2012 | 39%1 | 30% | 33%1 | 48%1 | 32% | 34% | |
| Sep–Oct 2012 | 39%1 | 30% | 31%1 | 53%1 | 29% | 36% | |
| Jul–Aug 2012 | 40%1 | 26% | 32%1 | 50%1 | 28% | 36% | |
| Mar–Apr 2012 | 46%1 | 23% | 36%1 | 45%1 | 28% | 35% | |
| Jan–Feb 2012 | 51%1 | 19% | 41%1 | 38%1 | 23% | 36% | |
| Nov–Dec 2011 | 53%1 | 18% | 49%1 | 33%1 | 30% | 32% | |
| Sep–Oct 2011 | 56%1 | 19% | 52%1 | 29%1 | 29% | 33% | |
| Jul–Aug 2011 | 57%1 | 16% | 52%1 | 29%1 | 27% | 34% | |
| 2010 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 23–25 Nov 2010 | 38%1 | 44%1 | 44%1 | ||||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted". 1 Ted Baillieu. | |||||||
References
- ^ Section 63, Electoral Act 2002. Retrieved 6 September 2010.
- ^ "Government may be in balance as MP quits: report". The Age. Melbourne. 6 March 2013. Retrieved 6 March 2013.
- ^ "Upper house summary". ABC. Retrieved 1 February 2012.
- ^ Ryan Sheales. "Coalition wins Upper House majority: ABC 14 December 2010". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 1 February 2012.
- ^ Contact Us (18 March 2013). "Martin Pakula to stand for Lyndhurst". Brimbankweekly.com.au. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
{{cite web}}:|author=has generic name (help) - ^ Richard Willingham (28 March 2012). "Liberal candidate in key seat sparks ire over house claims". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ Henrietta Cook (10 October 2013). "Liberal MP Philip Davis resigns from parliament". Melbourne: Theage.com.au. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ "Union official Cesar Melhem enters State Parliament".
- ^ "New Liberal member endorsed".
- ^ "Liberals preselect Davis replacement"./
- ^ a b c d Green, Antony: 2013 Victorian Redistribution, ABC Elections.
- ^ http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/another-victorian-labor-mp-quits/story-fni0xqi4-1226767767622
- ^ "Twitter / rwillingham: And another Labor retirement". Twitter.com. 24 November 2013. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ November 13, 2013 (13 November 2013). "Life After Parliament". Christine Campbell. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "Labor MP Joanne Duncan to resign from Parliament". News.com.au. 4 November 2013. Retrieved 4 November 2013.
- ^ Dalgleish, Cassandra (3 December 2012). "Helper plans life after politics". Stock & Land. Retrieved 11 October 2013.
- ^ a b Richard Willingham (28 March 2012). "Justin Madden announces retirement from politics". Melbourne: Theage.com.au. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/south-east/ironman-mp-john-pandazopoulos-announces-he-wont-recontest-the-seat-of-dandenong/story-fngnvmhm-1226769565954
- ^ Dundas, Greg (3 February 2014). "Trezise calls time, Geelong up for grabs in state election". Geelong Advertiser. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ "Sixth Vic ALP MP in a month calls it quits". The Australian. 20 November 2013.
- ^ Richard Willingham (28 March 2012). "Labor's upper house preselection will bypass rank and file members". Melbourne: Theage.com.au. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ "Twitter / bellfrances: Former Labor Treasurer". Twitter.com. 17 November 2013. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/multicultural-affairs-minister-nicholas-kotsiras-announces-his-retirement-from-politics/story-fni0fit3-1226800004393
- ^ Richard Willingham (28 March 2012). "Liberal MP Andrew McIntosh to retire from state parliament". Melbourne: Theage.com.au. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ Richard Willingham (28 March 2012). "Victorian parliament Speaker Ken Smith to retire". Melbourne: Theage.com.au. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ "Long-serving Victorian Liberal frontbencher Andrea Coote announces resignation – ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)". Abc.net.au. 19 January 2014. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ "Liberal infighting threatens Napthine". Melbourne: The Age. 14 March 2014. Retrieved 14 March 2014.
- ^ "Mary Wooldridge's preselection chances improve as Eastern Metropolitan MP Jan Kronberg retires". Melbourne: The Age. 19 March 2014. Retrieved 19 March 2014.
- ^ "Hugh Delahunty Retiring". 3wm.com.au. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ Source AAP UPDATED 10:12 PM – 7 Feb 2014 (7 February 2014). "Vic MP Powell retires from Shepparton seat". Sbs.com.au. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ Kotsios, Natalie (9 January 2014). "Benalla MP Bill Sykes calls it a day". The Border Mail. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ "Peter Hall to leave politics". The Weekly Times. 24 February 2014. Retrieved 24 February 2014.
