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2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland

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2024 United Kingdom general election
← 2019 No later than 28 January 2025[1] Next →
All 57 Scottish seats in the House of Commons
 
Leader Humza Yousaf Rishi Sunak Ed Davey
Party SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats
Last election 48 seats, 45.0% 6 seats, 25.1% 4 seats, 9.5%
Current seats 43 7 4
 
Leader Keir Starmer Alex Salmond
Party Labour Alba
Last election 1 seat, 18.6% Did not exist
Current seats 2 2

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025. The election includes Scotland with all 57 Scottish seats to be contested.

Background

The next general election must take place by January 2025 as per provisions of the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act ensures that Parliament is automatically dissolved on 17 December 2024, if it has not already been dissolved at the request of the Prime Minister. Polling occurs no more than 25 working days after Parliament has been dissolved, allowing for public holidays.[2] Current prime minster has stated he will hold the election in 2024[3]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

All polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure and sample size rules.

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Poll results

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland


Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		SNP Con Lab Lib Dems Green Others Lead
22–25 Jan 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,007 33% 16% 36% 7% - 8% 3
9–11 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,040 35% 17% 35% 9% 2% 3% Tie
26–27 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,054 34% 17% 36% 6% 3% 3% 2
20–26 Nov 2023 Ipsos N/A 990 40% 15% 30% 6% 3% 5% 10
29–30 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,092 32% 23% 32% 8% 2% 3% Tie
20–25 Oct 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,200 32% 16% 38% 6% 4% 4% 6
6–11 Oct 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,018 35% 19% 35% 6% – 4% Tie
2–6 Oct 2023 YouGov N/A 1,028 33% 20% 32% 5% 5% 4% 1
5 Oct 2023 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election[4]
4–5 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,095 34% 21% 32% 9% 2% 2% 2
2–6 Oct 2023 YouGov Fabians 1,028 33% 20% 32% 5% 5% 4% 1
2–5 Oct 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 37% 18% 33% 8% 0% 3% 4
4–14 Sep 2023 Opinium N/A 37% 18% 28% 8% 4% 3% 10
8–13 Sep 2023 YouGov The Times 1,103 39% 20% 28% 9% 3% 3% 9
2–4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 35% 15% 35% 8% 4% 4% Tie
15–18 Aug 2023 Survation N/A 37% 17% 35% 7% 6% 3% 2
5–6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 37% 17% 34% 7% 2% 4% 3
3–8 Aug 2023 YouGov The Times 1,086 36% 15% 32% 6% 6% 3% 4
1–2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,030 35% 21% 32% 7% 2% 3% 3
23–28 Jun 2023 Survation N/A 37% 17% 34% 9% 0% 3% 3
12–15 Jun 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,007 34% 18% 34% 7% 0% 3% Tie
9–14 Jun 2023 [ / Savanta] N/A 38% 17% 34% 7% 0% 3% 4
3–5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,466 37% 20% 28% 9% 3% 3% 9
15–21 May 2023 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,090 41% 16% 29% 6% 3% 4% 12
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Survation True North 1,009 38% 18% 31% 9% 2% 4% 7
30 Apr – 1 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,295 35% 18% 32% 9% 3% 3% 3
17–20 Apr 2023 YouGov The Times 1,032 37% 17% 28% 8% 5% 2% 9
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 Survation N/A 1,001 40% 17% 32% 7% 1% 3% 8
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 36% 19% 31% 10% 2% 3% 5
28–31 Mar 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,009 39% 19% 33% 6% – 4% 6
28–30 Mar 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,089 39% 19% 31% 5% – 6% 8
27 Mar 2023 Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National Party
9–13 Mar 2023 YouGov Sky News 1,002 39% 16% 29% 6% 6% 3% 10
8–10 Mar 2023 Survation Diffley Partnership 1,037 40% 18% 32% 6% 2% 3% 8
7–10 Mar 2023 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,013 40% 16% 33% 6% – 5% 7
2–5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 39% 22% 29% 6% 2% 3% 10
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov The Times 1,017 38% 19% 29% 6% 4% 4% 9
15–17 Feb 2023 Survation N/A 1,034 43% 17% 30% 6% TBA 3% 13
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,004 42% 17% 32% 6% TBA 3% 10
10–15 Feb 2023 YouGov Scottish Election Study 1,239 38% 16% 35% 6% 3% 3% 3
1–7 Feb 2023 Survation N/A TBA 42% 18% 29% 6% TBA TBA 13
23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov The Sunday Times 1,088 42% 15% 29% 6% 3% 5% 13
10–12 Jan 2023 Survation True North 1,002 43% 18% 29% 7% – 2% 14
22 Dec – 1 Jan 2023 Survation Scotland in Union 1,025 44% 16% 31% 6% – 1% 13
16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta The Scotsman 1,048 43% 19% 30% 6% – 2% 13
6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov The Times 1,090 43% 14% 29% 6% 4% 4% 14
28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,045 51% 13% 25% 6% 3% 26
26–27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 41% 16% 31% 8% 2% 3% 10
7–11 Oct 2022 Panelbase Alba Party 1,000+ 42% 16% 30% 6% 2% 2% 12
5–7 Oct 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,017 45% 15% 30% 5% – 4% 15
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 YouGov The Times 1,067 45% 12% 31% 7% 3% 2% 14
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 ComRes The Scotsman 1,029 46% 15% 30% 8% – 1% 16
28–29 Sep 2022 Survation Scotland in Union 1,011 44% 15% 31% 6% – 4% 13
17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,133 44% 20% 23% 8% – 5% 21
29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,010 47% 19% 23% 8% – 3% 24
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,029 46% 18% 25% 8% – 3% 21
23–29 May 2022 Ipsos STV News 1,000 44% 19% 23% 10% 3% 2% 21
18–23 May 2022 YouGov The Times 1,115 46% 19% 22% 6% 3% 3% 24
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Scotland
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,009 42% 21% 24% 7% – 5% 18
25–31 Mar 2022 BMG Research The Herald 1,012 42% 19% 26% 6% 4% 2% 16
24–28 Mar 2022 Survation Ballot Box Scotland 1,002 45% 19% 27% 6% – 2% 18
1–4 Feb 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,128 44% 20% 24% 8% 2% 2% 20
15–22 Dec 2021 Opinium Daily Record 1,328 48% 17% 22% 7% 3% 4% 26
18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov The Times 1,060 48% 20% 18% 6% 3% 4% 28
9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,000~ 48% 21% 20% 7% – 4% 27
20–26 Oct 2021 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,001 48% 21% 21% 7% – 4% 27
6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 2,003 47% 23% 19% 7% – 4% 24
2–8 Sep 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,014 51% 21% 17% 5% 2% 3% 30
20 Aug 2021 Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats[5]
16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,287 47% 25% 18% 6% – 4% 22
13 May 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election[4]
6 May 2021 Election to the Scottish Parliament[6]
2–4 May 2021 YouGov The Times 1,144 48% 22% 19% 5% 4% 3% 26
30 Apr – 4 May 2021 Survation DC Thomson 1,008 48% 22% 20% 7% 1% 1% 26
28 Apr – 03 May 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,015 47% 25% 20% 6% 1% 1% 22
27–30 Apr 2021 BMG Research The Herald 1,023 48% 20% 20% 7% 3% 1% 28
23–26 Apr 2021 Survation Good Morning Britain 1,008 46% 22% 22% 8% – 2% 24
21–26 Apr 2021 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,075 45% 22% 19% 7% 4% 3% 23
20–22 Apr 2021 Survation DC Thomson 1,037 47% 21% 22% 8% 1% 1% 25
16–20 Apr 2021 YouGov The Times 1,204 48% 24% 19% 4% 3% 3% 24
1–6 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,023 50% 24% 19% 4% 1% 1% 26
29–30 Mar 2021 Survation The Courier 1,021 49% 21% 21% 8% 1% 0% 28
19–22 Mar 2021 YouGov The Times TBA 49% 24% 17% 4% 4% 2% 25
16–19 Mar 2021 BMG Research The Herald 1,021 47% 21% 19% 7% 3% 3% 26
11–18 Mar 2021 Survation The Courier 1,452 49% 21% 21% 7% 1% 1% 28
11–16 Mar 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,096 50% 23% 19% 5% 3% 1% 27
4–8 Mar 2021 YouGov The Times 1,100 50% 23% 17% 5% 3% 2% 27
27 Feb 2021 Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour[7]
25–26 Feb 2021 Survation Daily Record 1,011 48% 23% 21% 6% – 2% 25
11–13 Jan 2021 Survation Scot Goes Pop 1,020 48% 19% 23% 7% – 3% 25
4–9 Dec 2020 Survation N/A 1,009 51% 20% 21% 6% 3% – 30
5–11 Nov 2020 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,020 50% 21% 20% 5% 2% – 29
6–10 Nov 2020 YouGov The Times 1,089 53% 19% 17% 4% 3% 3% 34
28 Oct – 4 Nov 2020 Survation N/A 1,059 52% 18% 20% 8% – 2% 32
17–21 Sep 2020 JL Partners Politico 1,016 56% 18% 15% 7% 3% 38
2–7 Sep 2020 Survation N/A 1,018 51% 20% 21% 6% – 3% 30
6–10 Aug 2020 YouGov The Times 1,142 54% 20% 16% 5% 2% 2% 34
5 Aug 2020 Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives[8]
30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,026 53% 21% 19% 6% – 2% 32
1–5 Jun 2020 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,022 51% 21% 19% 6% 2% 1% 30
1–5 May 2020 Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 1,086 50% 26% 17% 5% 2% 1% 24
24–27 Apr 2020 YouGov N/A 1,095 51% 25% 15% 6% 2% 1% 26
24–26 Mar 2020 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,023 48% 27% 16% 5% 3% – 21
14 Feb 2020 Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives[9]
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 45.0% 25.1% 18.6% 9.5% 1.0% 0.8% 19.9

Boundary review

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.[10][11] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020[12] and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.[4][13][14][15] They were required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023. The Scottish commission published its own report on 28 June.[16][17] As the reports were laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals must be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament.

Fifty-seven single member constituencies will be used in Scotland for the next election, a reduction of two since 2019. A number of constituencies were unchanged, including the two protected constituencies of Na h-Eileanan an Iar covering the Western Isles, and Orkney and Shetland, covering the Northern Isles.[18]

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies from the previous election which require a swing of less than 5% from the 2019 result to change hands. Many of these seats will not exist in this form at the Next United Kingdom general election

Scottish Conservatives

Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Conservatives'
place 2019
1 Gordon SNP 0.73% 2nd
2 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock SNP 2.50% 2nd
3 Ochil and South Perthshire SNP 3.89% 2nd
4 Argyll and Bute SNP 4.28% 2nd
5 Aberdeen South SNP 4.37% 2nd
6 Angus SNP 4.40% 2nd
7 East Lothian SNP 4.81% 3rd
8 Lanark and Hamilton East SNP 4.89% 2nd
9 East Renfrewshire SNP 4.90% 2nd

Scottish Labour

Rank Constituency Winning party 2017 Swing
required 		Labour's
place 2019
1 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath SNP 1.32% 2nd
2 East Lothian SNP 3.32% 2nd
3 Glasgow North East SNP 3.76% 2nd
4 Rutherglen and Hamilton West SNP 4.86% 2nd

Scottish Liberal Democrats

Rank Constituency Winning party 2017 Swing Required Liberal Democrats' place 2019
1 East Dunbartonshire SNP 0.14% 2nd

Scottish National Party

Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		SNP's
place 2019
1 Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Liberal Democrats 0.32% 2nd
2 Moray Conservative 0.53% 2nd
3 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Conservative 0.79% 2nd
4 North East Fife Liberal Democrats 1.43% 2nd
5 Dumfries and Galloway Conservative 1.75% 2nd
6 Edinburgh West Liberal Democrats 3.46% 2nd
7 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Conservative 3.85% 2nd
8 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Conservative 4.84% 2nd
9 Banff and Buchan Conservative 4.87% 2nd

MPs not seeking re-election

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced Note
Douglas Ross Moray 2017 Conservative 14 October 2021[19] Current leader of the Scottish Conservatives
Alister Jack Dumfries and Galloway 2017 Conservative 17 May 2023[20] Current Scottish Secretary
Ian Blackford Ross, Skye and Lochaber 2015 SNP 6 June 2023[21] Former leader of SNP Westminster group
Peter Grant Glenrothes 2015 SNP 21 June 2023[22]
Angela Crawley Lanark and Hamilton East 2015 SNP 23 June 2023[23] Former SNP shadow Attorney General
Douglas Chapman Dunfermline and West Fife 2015 SNP 26 June 2023[24]
Stewart Hosie Dundee East 2005 SNP 28 June 2023[25] Current SNP shadow Chancellor
Mhairi Black Paisley and Renfrewshire South 2015 SNP 4 July 2023[26] Current deputy leader of SNP Westminster group
John McNally Falkirk 2015 SNP 10 July 2023[27]
Philippa Whitford Central Ayrshire 2015 SNP 18 July 2023[28] Current SNP Spokesperson for Scotland
Lisa Cameron East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 2015 Conservative[a] 17 October 2023[29] Elected SNP

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Originally elected from the SNP, defected to the Conservatives in October 2023.

References

  1. ^ Parliament will automatically dissolve on Tuesday 17 December 2024, unless it has been dissolved sooner by the King. Followed by an election 25 working days later.. Parliament.uk. Retrieved 6 May 2023.
  2. ^ "When Is The Next UK General Election?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  3. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/04/rishi-sunak-hints-he-will-delay-calling-election-until-second-half-of-2024
  4. ^ a b c "2023 Review launched". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  5. ^ "Alex Cole-Hamilton confirmed as new Lib Dem leader". BBC News. 20 August 2020. Archived from the original on 20 August 2021. Retrieved 21 August 2021.
  6. ^ "Scottish Parliament election 2021". BBC News. Archived from the original on 11 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  7. ^ "Anas Sarwar elected as new leader of Scottish Labour Party". Labour List. 27 February 2021. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 8 March 2021.
  8. ^ "Douglas Ross confirmed as Scottish Conservative leader". BBC News. 5 August 2020. Archived from the original on 26 January 2022. Retrieved 8 March 2021.
  9. ^ "Scottish Conservatives: Jackson Carlaw succeeds Ruth Davidson as leader". BBC News. 14 February 2020. Archived from the original on 9 March 2022. Retrieved 8 March 2021.
  10. ^ "Correspondence with Chloe Smith MP" (PDF). parliament.uk.
  11. ^ Proctor, Kate (26 March 2020). "MPs no longer to get automatic vote on constituency boundary plans". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077.
  12. ^ "Parliamentary Constituencies Act". legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 17 December 2020.
  13. ^ "2023 Review of UK Parliament Constituencies". Boundary Commission for Scotland. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  14. ^ "2023 Review". Boundary Commission for Wales. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  15. ^ "2023 Review: Electoral Quota and Allocation of Constituencies Announced". Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland. 5 January 2021. Retrieved 7 January 2021.
  16. ^ "2023 Review of UK Parliament Constituencies Boundary Commission for Scotland Final Recommendations laid before Parliament" (PDF). 28 June 2023.
  17. ^ "Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020". legislation.gov.uk. Archived from the original on 6 August 2021.
  18. ^ "Boundary review 2023: Which seats will change in Scotland and Wales?".
  19. ^ Malik, Paul (14 October 2021). "Westminster boundary shake-up will impact all Courier voters'". The Courier. Retrieved 14 October 2021.
  20. ^ "Scottish Secretary Alister Jack to stand down at the next election".
  21. ^ "Ian Blackford to stand down as SNP MP at next election". BBC News. 6 June 2023. Retrieved 7 June 2023.
  22. ^ Gilmour, Lauren (21 June 2023). "Second SNP MP to stand down at next election". The Independent.
  23. ^ "Third SNP MP announces plans to step down at next General Election". Retrieved 23 June 2023.
  24. ^ Meighan, Craig (26 June 2023). "Former SNP treasurer to stand down at next general election". STV News. Retrieved 28 June 2023.
  25. ^ "Dundee East MP Stewart Hosie to stand down at next election". BBC News. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
  26. ^ "Mhairi Black to step down as SNP MP at next election". BBC News. 4 July 2023. Retrieved 5 July 2023.
  27. ^ "Falkirk SNP MP John McNally announces he will be stepping down at next UK general election". BBC News. 10 July 2023. Retrieved 10 July 2023.
  28. ^ Dr Philippa Whitford [@Dr_PhilippaW] (18 July 2023). "As I approach retirement next year, I want to thank all those who have supported me during my time as an MP, as well as the wonderful people I worked with in ⁦@NHSScotland⁩. I will continue to campaign for Scotland's right to self-determination & for #ScottishIndependence!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  29. ^ "MP Lisa Cameron rejects calls for a by-election". BBC News. 17 October 2023. Retrieved 20 October 2023.
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