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2024 European Parliament election in Estonia

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2024 European Parliament election in Estonia
← 2019 6-9 June 2024
All 7 Estonian seats to the European Parliament
 
Leader Urmas Paet Marina Kaljurand Mihhail Kõlvart
Party Reform SDE Centre
Alliance RE S&D RE
Last election 2 seats, 26.2% 2 seats, 23.3% 1 seat, 14.4%
Current seats 2 2 1
 
Leader Martin Helme Riho Terras
Party EKRE Isamaa
Alliance ID EPP
Last election 1 seat, 12.7% 1 seat, 10.3%
Current seats 1 1

An election for the Members of the European Parliament from Estonia as part of the 2024 European Parliament election will take place on June 9.[1][2][3]

Background

In March 2023 Estonia held its latest national election, and in that occasion the Reform Party managed to maintain its position as biggest party in parliament, while its leader and incumbent Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was reconfirmed in the office with the support of the Social Democratic Party and Estonia 200.

Reform Party

In recent months the party's performance in opinion polls has suffered significantly from the party's decision to back several tax increases unpopular with the economically libreal voter base as well as due to a scandal involving party leader Kaja Kallas. In August 2023, she came under the international spotlight after it was revealed that her husband held a significant share in a transportation company, Stark Logistics, which continued business with Russia despite Kallas's previous calls for Estonian companies to cease operations in Russia in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[4] Kallas tried to minimise the affair and ignored the calls for her resignation from her political opponents, calling the controversy a "witch-hunt".[5]

At the same time she has appeared in the news as a prominent figure of the Renew Europe group and therefore as one of the frontrunners to be ALDE's Spitzenkandidat for the European Commission's presidency. She has also been linked to the post of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, whose current holder Josep Borrell will retire at the end of this mandate, or to the post of Estonia's European Commissioner, currently held by Kadri Simson (Centre Party).[6][7] On 7 March 2024, Kallas announced that she rejected the offer from ALDE to be the alliance's Spitzenkandidat.[8]

Incumbent MEP Andrus Ansip is not running for re-election.[9]

Social Democratic Party

Since the 2023 Riigikogu election, the Social Democrats have remained the only party in the government coalition to avoid losing support in polling. This has been attributed to the party members' public statements, especially those of the leader of the party Lauri Läänemets, setting the Social Democrats apart from the two economically liberal parties in the coalition. Moreover, the party gained MPs and members from the defections out of the Centre Party, including seeing its number of MPs increase from 9 to 13.[10][11]

Centre Party

In September 2023 Mihhail Kõlvart, then-mayor of Tallinn, won Centre Party's leadership election. His victory marked a significant change in the party's direction, choosing to focus more on its Russophone electoral base and shifting to socially conservative and economically syncretic positions, with the party becoming seen as one specifically of the niche Russian minority concentrated in the capital Tallinn and Ida-Viru County.[12][13][14] As a result, in the following months the previous party leader Jüri Ratas and several other party members defected to other political forces, leaving Centre Party with one third of its initial parliamentary representation (down to only 6 MPs) and with an increasingly weaker position in the most recent opinion polls.[15][16][17]

Isamaa

Since August 2023, Isamaa has seen its support rocket to unprecedented historic highs.[18][19] These gains in polling are mainly attributed to the party gaining 3 MPs and several other members defecting from the Centre Party, EKRE being seen as too extreme of an option as an alternative to the government coalition and the success of the newly elected party leader, Urmas Reinsalu, in attracting disgruntled Reform Party voters unhappy with its plans to raise taxes.[20][21][22]

Electoral system

Compared to last election, Estonia is entitled to one more MEP has already been assigned in 2020 in the occasion of the redistribution post Brexit. The 7 members are elected through open list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency with seats allocated through D'Hondt method and no electoral threshold.[23]

Both Estonian citizens and other non-Estonian EU citizens residing in the country are entitled to vote in the European elections in Estonian. No registration is needed for Estonian citizens, while other EU citizens residing in Estonia are required to register with the National Electoral Committee only if it's their first time voting in the country. Estonian citizens residing abroad can choose between three options to vote: in person in an embassy or consulate, online or by mail, with only the latter procedure requiring registration. In addition, those eligible to vote must turn 18 years old by election day at the latest.[24]

Outgoing delegation

The table shows the detailed composition of the Estonian seats at the European Parliament as of 1 February 2024.

EP Group Seats Party Seats MEPs
Renew Europe
3 / 7
 Estonian Reform Party 2
 
Estonian Centre Party 1
 
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats
2 / 7
 Social Democratic Party 2
 
Identity and Democracy
1 / 7
 Conservative People's Party of Estonia 1
 
European People's Party
1 / 7
 Isamaa 1
 
Total 7
Source: European Parliament

Contesting parties

Candidates

The National Electoral Committee registered 66 candidates from 9 parties and 5 independents.[25]

Reform Party

  1. Urmas Paet, Member of the European Parliament (2014-present)
  2. Yoko Alender, Member of the Riigikogu (2015-present)
  3. Luukas Kristjan Ilves, Counsellor for Digital Affairs at the Estonia's Permanent Representation to the EU (2014-2018)
  4. Maria Jufereva-Skuratovski, Member of the Riigikogu (2019-present)
  5. Marko Mihkelson, Member of the Riigikogu (2003-present)
  6. Hanah Lahe, Member of the Riigikogu (2023-present)
  7. Karmen Joller, Member of the Riigikogu (2023-present)
  8. Maarja Metstak, Kuusalu Parish councillor (2021-present)
  9. Hanno Pevkur, Minister of Defence (2022-present)

Incumbent MEP Andrus Ansip is not running for re-election.

Social Democratic Party

  1. Marina Kaljurand, Member of the European Parliament (2019-present), independent candidate in the 2016 Estonian presidential election
  2. Sven Mikser, Member of the European Parliament (2019-present)
  3. Katri Raik, Mayor of Narva (2020-2023)
  4. Tanel Kiik, Minister of Health and Labour (2021-2022)
  5. Riina Sikkut, Minister of Health (2023-present)
  6. Ivari Padar, Member of the European Parliament (2009-2014, 2017-2019)
  7. Natalie Mets, Tallinn nightlife advisor (2021-present)
  8. Vootele Päi, advisor to the Minister of the Interior (2022-present)
  9. Jevgeni Ossinovski, Minister of Health and Labour (2015-2018)

Centre Party

  1. Mihhail Kõlvart, Mayor of Tallinn (2019-2024)
  2. Andrei Korobeinik, Member of the Riigikogu (2011-2013, 2019-2022, 2023-present)
  3. Erki Savisaar, Member of the Riigikogu (2015-2023)
  4. Anneli Ott, Minister of Culture (2021)
  5. Janek Mäggi, Minister of Public Administration (2018-2019)
  6. Monika Haukanõmm, Member of the Riigikogu (2015-2019)
  7. Aivar Riisalu, Member of the Riigikogu (2007-2015)
  8. Jana Toom, Member of the European Parliament (2014-present)
  9. Lauri Laats, Member of the Riigikogu (2023-present)

Conservative People's Party

  1. Martin Helme, Minister of Finance (2019-2021)
  2. Anti Poolamets, Member of the Riigikogu (2019-present)
  3. Helle-Moonika Helme, Member of the Riigikogu (2019-present)
  4. Henn Põlluaas, Chairman of the Riigikogu (2019-2021)
  5. Siim Pohlak, Member of the Riigikogu (2019-present)
  6. Merle Kivest, Tartu city councillor (2021-present)
  7. Rain Epler, Minister of Environment (2020-2021)
  8. Arvo Aller, Minister of Rural Affairs (2019-2021)
  9. Jaak Madison, Member of the European Parliament (2019-present)

Isamaa

  1. Riho Terras, Member of the European Parliament (2020-present), Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces (2011-2018)
  2. Urmas Reinsalu, Minister of Foreign Affairs (2019-2021, 2022-2023)
  3. Urve Palo, Minister of Entrepreneurship (2015, 2016-2018)
  4. Riina Solman, Minister of Public Administration (2022-2023)
  5. Tõnis Lukas, Minister of Education and Research (1999-2002, 2007-2011, 2022-2023)
  6. Virve Linder, Mayor of Kohtla-Järve (2022-2023)
  7. Üllar Saaremäe, Member of the Riigikogu (2019-2023)
  8. Ahti Kallikorm, entrepreneur
  9. Jüri Ratas, Prime Minister of Estonia (2016-2021)

Estonia 200

  1. Margus Tsahkna, Minister of Foreign Affairs (2023-present)
  2. Kristina Kallas, Minister of Education and Research (2023-present)
  3. Grigore-Kalev Stoicescu, Member of the Riigikogu (2023-present)
  4. Liisa-Ly Pakosta, Member of the Riigikogu (2009-2015, 2023-present)
  5. Igor Taro, Member of the Riigikogu (2023-present)
  6. Irja Lutsar, Member of the Riigikogu (2023-present)
  7. Hendrik Johannes Terras, Member of the Riigikogu (2023-present)
  8. Kadri Tali, Member of the Riigikogu (2023-present)
  9. Indrek Tarand, Member of the European Parliament (2009-2019)

Greens

  1. Evelyn Sepp, Member of the Riigikogu (2001-2011)
  2. Rasmus Lahtvee
  3. Alina Lerner-Vilu
  4. Olev-Andres Tinn
  5. Riin Ehin
  6. Kaia Konsap
  7. Liina Freivald
  8. Tuula Raidna
  9. Marko Kaasik

Parempoolsed

  1. Lavly Perling, state prosecutor general (2014-2019)
  2. Rainer Saks, national security expert
  3. Ilmar Raag, columnist
  4. Annela Anger-Kraavi, climate expert
  5. Marti Aavik, journalist
  6. Eero Raun, entrepreneur
  7. Kadri Kullman, entrepreneur
  8. Andres Kaarmann, vice mayor of Saue Parish (2017-present)
  9. Kristjan Vanaselja, entrepreneur

Together

  1. Aivo Peterson

Others

  • Vsevolod Jürgenson, taxi driver and activist
  • Kalle Grünthal, Member of the Riigikogu (2019-present)
  • Tanel Talve, Member of the Riigikogu (2015-2019)
  • Andres Inn
  • Mike Calamus

Party manifestos and slogans

Party EP Group Slogan and manifesto (external link) Other slogan(s)
Reform Party RE A safe Estonia in Europe[26] (Estonian: Kindel Eesti Euroopas)
Social Democratic Party S&D Freedom, justice, security.[27] (Estonian: Vabadus, õiglus, julgeolek.) A rock-solid choice![28] (Estonian: Kaljukindel valik!)
Centre Party RE Stand tall, Estonia![29] (Estonian: Selg sirgu, Eesti!)
Conservative People's Party ID For Estonia in Europe[30] (Estonian: Eesti eest Euroopas)
Isamaa EPP To the right path![31] (Estonian: Õigele teele!)
Estonia 200 No Yes-people to Europe[32] (Estonian: Jah-inimesed Euroopasse)
Greens G/EFA
Parempoolsed EPP Let's defend freedom![33] (Estonian: Kaitseme vabadust!)
Together No

Campaign

Controversies

Greens' candidate list

The Greens originally announced a full list of 9 candidates but only paid the fee sufficient enough to register two, leading to the National Electoral Committee to register only two candidates. The party disputed the decision and sued, and as a legal remedy, the Supreme Court required the National Electoral Committee to register all 9 candidates on 14 May 2024.[34] Several other parties expressed surprise and disagreement over the decision due to the Greens effectively being able to register all of its candidates without having paid the fee for 7 of them.[35]

Debates

2024 European Parliament election debates in Estonia
Date Organisers     P  Present    N  Non-invitee 
Reform SDE Centre EKRE Isamaa E200 EER Parempoolsed Refs
25 April Postimees Hanah Lahe Tanel Kiik Lauri Laats Helle-Moonika Helme N Irja Lutsar N Eero Raun [36]
11 April Eesti Televisioon P

Andrus Ansip
Urmas Paet

P

Marina Kaljurand
Sven Mikser

P

Jana Toom

P

Jaak Madison

P

Riho Terras

N N N [37]
22 Feb EGM
ENF 		P

Hanah Lahe

P

Jevgeni Ossinovski

P

Erki Savisaar

P

Rain Epler

P

Jüri Ratas

P

Züleyxa Izmailova

N N [38]

Opinion polling

See also: Opinion polling for the 2024 European Parliament election

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The seats the result would produce is shown below the result for each party.

Polling execution Parties Lead
Polling

firm

Fieldwork

date

Sample

size

Reform Renew
SDE

S&D


Centre

Renew


EKRE ID
Isamaa EPP

E200

EER G/EFA

Parem

Koos

Others Party EP group
Norstat 8–20 May 2024 1,471 19.1
1 		19.3
2 		11.5
1 		14.2
1 		21.3
2 		3.8
0 		0.9
0 		4.3
0 		2.9
0 		2.7
0 		2.0 4.6
Kantar Emor 6–15 May 2024 1,471 17.2
2 		23.6
2 		11.0
1 		13.6
1 		14.0
1 		4.1
0 		0.9
0 		7.2
0 		3.1
0 		5.4
0 		6.4 9.3
Norstat 29 Apr–6 May 2024 1,484 19.3
2 		21.4
2 		9.4
1 		17.9
1 		17.1
1 		3.9
0 		0.9
0 		4.5
0 		3.0
0 		2.7
0 		2.1 7.3
Kantar Emor 8-17 Apr 2024 1,484 18.8
2 		20
2 		13.8
1 		13.8
1 		16.8
1 		4.7
0 		1.5
0 		6
0 		— 4.5
0 		1.2 12.6
Norstat 11-15 Apr 2024 3,500 20.1
2 		22.0
2 		11.0
1 		17.2
1 		17.6
1 		5.0
0 		1.2
0 		4.7
0 		— 1.2
0 		1.9 9.1
Kantar Emor 14-20 Mar 2024 1,135 18.9
2 		21.4
2 		13.9
1 		15.4
1 		16.7
1 		5.6
0 		—[a] 5.9
0 		— 2.1
0 		2.5 11.4
2023 parliamentary election 31.2
3 		9.3
1 		15.3
1 		16.1
1 		8.2
0 		13.3
1 		1.0
0 		2.3
0 		— 3.3
0 		15.1 30.4
2019 EP election 26.2
2 		23.3
2 		14.4
1 		12.7
1 		10.3
1 		3.2
0 		1.8
0 		— — 8.0
0 		2.9 17.3

European Parliament polling in Estonia is candidate-oriented as opposed to party-oriented due to the short length of the electoral lists.[39][40]

Results

Party+/–
Estonian Reform Party–
Social Democratic Party –
Estonian Centre Party–
Conservative People's Party of Estonia–
Isamaa–
Estonia 200–
Estonian Greens–
ParempoolsedNew
TogetherNew
Independents–
Total0

Notes

  1. ^ Included under Others.

References

  1. ^ ERR, ERR | (2023-05-17). "European Parliament elections scheduled for June 2024". ERR. Retrieved 2023-06-14.
  2. ^ "| Valimised Eestis". www.valimised.ee. Retrieved 2023-10-06.
  3. ^ "president.ee". president.ee. Retrieved 2024-03-11.
  4. ^ Milne, Richard (24 August 2023). "Financial Times: Estonian PM Kaja Kallas urged to clarify husband's Russian business ties". Financial Times. Retrieved 25 August 2023.
  5. ^ Musaddique, Shafi (2023-09-13). "'Witch-hunt': Estonian prime minister defends husband's Russian business links". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2023-09-13.
  6. ^ "Daily: Kaja Kallas faces dilemma ahead of European Parliament election". ERR News. 16 February 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  7. ^ Ots, Mait (17 February 2024). "There are still several turning points on Kallas' road to Brussels". ERR News. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  8. ^ ERR (2024-03-07). "Kallas: ma ei hakka ALDE esikandidaadiks Euroopa Parlamendi valimistel". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-03-08.
  9. ^ ERR (2024-03-24). "Ansip teatas, et loobub Euroopa Parlamenti kandideerimisest". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-04-06.
  10. ^ ERR, ERR | (2023-10-20). "Party ratings expert: The situation is revolutionary". ERR. Retrieved 2024-02-27.
  11. ^ ERR, ERR | (2024-02-07). "Ratings: Support equalizes for Reform Party and SDE". ERR. Retrieved 2024-02-27.
  12. ^ Kramer, Samuel (10 October 2023). "Doubling Down: Estonia's Center Party Gamble on Mihail Kõlvart". Foreign Policy Research Institute. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  13. ^ "JUHTKIRI ⟩ Kõlvarti tragöödia". Arvamus (in Estonian). 2024-01-04. Retrieved 2024-02-27.
  14. ^ ERR, Anne Raiste | (2024-01-07). "Saarts: lahkumiste laine võib Keskerakonna marginaliseerida". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-02-27.
  15. ^ Bartosz, Chmielewski (8 February 2024). "The gradual break-up of the Estonian Centre Party". Center for Eastern Studies. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
  16. ^ ERR (2024-01-05). "Keskerakonnast lahkus kuus riigikogu liiget". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-02-27.
  17. ^ ERR (2024-01-29). "Jüri Ratas lahkus Keskerakonnast ja liitub Isamaaga". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-02-27.
  18. ^ ERR, ERR | (2024-02-21). "Ratings: Isamaa's support rises further still". ERR. Retrieved 2024-02-27.
  19. ^ ERR, Urmet Kook | (2024-02-16). "Kantar Emor ratings: Isamaa support reaches historic high, Center Party's slump continues". ERR. Retrieved 2024-02-27.
  20. ^ ERR, ERR | (2023-10-20). "Party ratings expert: The situation is revolutionary". ERR. Retrieved 2024-02-27.
  21. ^ ERR, ERR | (2024-02-16). "Ratings special: Jüri Ratas has been a boost to Isamaa". ERR. Retrieved 2024-02-27.
  22. ^ Saarts, Tõnis (2023-11-26). "Tõnis Saarts: The EKRE triumph that never happened". ERR. Retrieved 2024-02-27.
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  24. ^ "How to vote in Latvia". European Parliament. Retrieved 13 February 2024.
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  26. ^ "Reformierakond läheb eurovalimistele sõnumiga «Kindel Eesti Euroopas!»". Postimees (in Estonian). 2024-04-07. Retrieved 2024-04-10.
  27. ^ ERR (2024-03-15). "SDE valis juhid ja kinnitas europarlamendi valimisnimekirja". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-03-16.
  28. ^ "Marina Kaljurand". Sotsiaaldemokraadid (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-04-10.
  29. ^ "FOTOD ⟩ Keskerakonna esinumber europarlamendi valimistel on Mihhail Kõlvart". Postimees (in Estonian). 2024-04-06. Retrieved 2024-04-06.
  30. ^ ERR (2024-03-23). "Galerii: EKRE esinumber europarlamendi valimistel on Martin Helme". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-03-23.
  31. ^ ERR (2024-03-24). "Isamaa eurovalimiste nimekirja esinumber on Terras, ankrumees Ratas". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-03-24.
  32. ^ ERR (2024-04-19). "Fotod: Eesti 200 andis üle oma valimisnimekirja". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-04-20.
  33. ^ "Programm". Parempoolsed (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-04-13.
  34. ^ ERR (2024-05-14). "Riigikohus lubab kõik Roheliste kandidaadid europarlamendi valimistele registreerida". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-05-15.
  35. ^ "Riigikohtu otsus valimiskautsjoni asjus üllatas erakondade esimehi". Postimees (in Estonian). 2024-05-15. Retrieved 2024-05-15.
  36. ^ "POSTIMEHE EURODEBATT 2024 ⟩ Kas Euroopa Liit ikka peab õigusriigi teemadel järeleandmisi tegema?". Postimees TV (in Estonian). 2024-04-23. Retrieved 2024-04-25.
  37. ^ ERR (2024-04-10). "Eurosaadikud: EL peab Ukraina toetamisel ja enda kaitse tugevdamisel julgem olema". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-04-10.
  38. ^ "OTSE | Mida arvavad erakonnad Euroopa roheleppest?". Roheportaal (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-04-10.
  39. ^ Jakobson, Mari-Liis (2024-04-22). "Mari-Liis Jakobson: erakonnad on valimisteks valmis. Aga valijad?". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-04-22.
  40. ^ "Politoloog: Ansipi otsus võib maksta Reformierakonnale mandaadi". Delfi (in Estonian). Retrieved 2024-04-22.
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