2019 European Parliament election in Italy

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European Parliament election in Italy, 2019

← 2014 26 May 2019 2024 →

All 76 Italian seats to the European Parliament
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
  Nicola Zingaretti 2012 crop.jpg Di Maio 2018 (cropped).jpg Silvio Berlusconi 2018.jpg
Leader Nicola Zingaretti Luigi Di Maio Silvio Berlusconi
Party Democratic Party Five Star Movement Forza Italia
Alliance S&D EFDD EPP
Leader since 17 March 2019 23 September 2017 18 January 1994
Last election 40.8%
31 seats
21.2%
17 seats
16.8%
13 seats

The 2019 European Parliament election in Italy will be held on 26 May 2019, electing members of the 9th Italian delegation to the European Parliament as part of the European elections held across the European Union.

Electoral system[edit]

The party-list proportional representation was the traditional electoral system of the Italian Republic since its foundation in 1946, so it had been adopted to elect the Italian representatives to the European Parliament too. Two levels were used: a national level to divide seats between parties, and a constituency level to distribute them between candidates. Italian regions were united in 5 constituencies, each electing a group of deputies. At national level, seats were divided between party lists using the largest remainder method with Hare quota. All seats gained by each party were automatically distributed to their local open lists and their most voted candidates.

In the run-up of the 2009 European Parliament election, the Italian Parliament has introduced a national threshold of 4% in the EP electoral law. However, the latter guarantees representation for linguistic minorities. A party representing one of such minorities can be connected with one of the major parties for the purpose of elections, combining their votes. If the party of the linguistic minority gets more than 50,000 votes, it wins a seat.

Background[edit]

In 2014 the governing Democratic Party (PD) of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi won the election with 40.8% of the vote and 31 seats, followed by the Five Star Movement (M5S) with 21.2% and 17 seats, and Forza Italia (FI) with 16.8% and 13 seats. As a result, the PD was the second largest national party in the European Parliament by number of seats after the German CDU/CSU and the largest among the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats.[1] The PD's score was also the best result for an Italian party in a nationwide election since the 1958 general election, when the Christian Democracy (DC) won 42.4% of the vote.

However in December 2016, after less than three years from the 2014 electoral landslide, Renzi was forced to resign after the defeat in the constitutional referendum and his foreign affairs minister, Paolo Gentiloni, was appointed new head of government.[2][3] Moreover the 2018 general election was characterized by a strong showing of "populist" parties. The centre-right coalition, led by Matteo Salvini's right-wing League, emerged with a plurality of seats in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Senate, while the anti-establishment M5S led by Luigi Di Maio became the party with the largest number of votes; Renzi's centre-left came only third, with the worst electoral result of its history.[4][5] However, no political group or party won an outright majority, resulting in a hung parliament.[6] After three months of negotiation, a government was finally formed on 1 June by the M5S and the League, with the M5S-linked independent Giuseppe Conte as Prime Minister, and Di Maio and Salvini Deputy Prime Ministers.[7][8]

Parties and leaders[edit]

This is a list of the main active parties which would likely participate in the election and/or are polled in most opinion surveys.

Party Ideology Leader Alliance Current MEPs
Democratic Party (PD) Social democracy Nicola Zingaretti S&D
26 / 73
Five Star Movement (M5S) Populism Luigi Di Maio EFDD
14 / 73
Forza Italia[a] (FI) Liberal conservatism Silvio Berlusconi EPP
12 / 73
League (Lega) Right-wing populism Matteo Salvini ENF
6 / 73
Brothers of Italy[b] (FdI) National conservatism Giorgia Meloni ECR
4 / 73
Democratic and Progressive Movement (MDP) Social democracy Roberto Speranza S&D
3 / 73
Italian Left (SI) Democratic socialism Nicola Fratoianni S&D
GUE–NGL
2 / 73
Federation of the Greens[c] (FdV) Green politics Matteo Badiali
Elena Grandi
Greens/EFA
1 / 73
Communist Refoundation Party (PRC) Communism Maurizio Acerbo GUE–NGL
1 / 73
More Europe (+E) Liberalism Benedetto Della Vedova ALDE
0 / 73
Power to the People (PaP) Communism Viola Carofalo GUE–NGL
0 / 73
  1. ^ The party will form a joint list with UdC and other minor parties. FI has 11 MEPs, UdC 1.
  2. ^ The party will form a joint list with DI. FdI and DI have 2 MEPs each.
  3. ^ The party will form a joint list with IiC and GI. FdV has 1 MEP.

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll results are listed according to the date of publication of the survey. Detailed data are usually published in the official website of the Italian government. The publication of opinion polls during the last 15 days of the electoral campaign is forbidden by Italian law.

Date Polling Firm Sample size PD M5S FI Lega LeU[a] FdI +E PaP[b] FdV[c] Others Lead
19 Mar 2019 Noto 21.0 21.0 11.0 32.5 1.5 4.5 3.5 1.0 4.0 11.5
13–18 Mar 2019 SWG 1,500 21.1 21.0 8.6 33.9 2.4 4.4 3.0 2.0 1.1 2.5 12.8
12 Mar EMG 1,845 19.9 23.8 9.8 30.6 4.9 3.1 1.6 6.3 6.8
12 Mar 2019 Noto 21.0 21.0 11.5 32.5 1.5 4.0 3.5 1.0 4.0 11.5
6–11 Mar 2019 SWG 1,500 20.3 21.8 8.9 33.7 2.6 4.1 2.8 1.9 1.2 3.1 11.9
5 Mar 2019 EMG 1,803 19.3 23.2 10.2 31.2 4.8 3.1 1.4 6.8 8.0
5 Mar 2019 Noto 20.0 21.0 11.0 33.0 1.5 4.0 3.5 1.0 5.0 12.0
27 Feb–4 Mar 2019 SWG 1,500 19.8 22.1 8.8 33.4 2.4 4.4 3.0 2.0 1.1 3.1 11.3
26–28 Feb 2019 Ipsos 1,000 18.5 21.2 8.6 35.9 2.4 4.0 4.0 5.4 14.7
21–28 Feb 2019 Termometro Politico 2,400 20.5 21.3 8.2 31.5 4.5 4.1 2.8 7.1 10.2
22–27 Feb 2019 Bidimedia 1,084 18.6 22.0 9.0 33.2 1.4 4.2 3.4 3.4 1.7 3.1 11.2
26 Feb 2019 EMG 1,603 18.2 23.8 10.7 31.2 5.0 3.0 1.6 6.5 7.4
20–25 Feb 2019 SWG 1,500 18.5 22.6 8.7 33.2 3.0 4.3 3.1 2.3 1.0 4.3 10.6
19 Feb 2019 EMG 1,802 17.9 24.8 10.3 30.7 5.2 3.0 1.6 6.5 5.9
19 Feb 2019 Noto 18.0 21.0 11.0 35.0 2.0 4.0 3.5 1.0 4.5 14.0
13–18 Feb 2019 SWG 1,500 18.6 22.1 9.0 33.4 2.9 4.5 2.9 2.2 1.2 3.2 11.3
13–15 Feb 2019 Quorum – YouTrend 1,003 18.0 24.3 10.3 32.9 5.1 9.4 8.6
12 Feb 2019 EMG 18.0 24.6 9.5 31.4 4.9 3.0 2.0 6.6 6.8
12 Feb 2019 Piepoli 500 18.0 27.5 10.0 31.0 2.0 5.0 3.5 3.5 3.5
12 Feb 2019 Euromedia 800 18.3 23.5 10.8 34.5 1.8 5.0 3.5 2.6 11.0
12 Feb 2019 Noto 19.0 22.0 10.0 34.0 2.0 4.5 3.5 1.5 3.5 12.0
6–11 Feb 2019 SWG 1,500 17.5 23.3 8.5 33.8 2.7 4.6 3.1 2.4 1.0 3.1 10.5
6–7 Feb 2019 Ipsos 1,000 16.1 25.4 8.1 34.4 2.2 3.6 4.2 6.0 9.0
6 Feb 2019 Noto 19.0 24.0 9.0 33.0 2.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 3.5 9.0
2–6 Feb 2019 Bidimedia 1,113 18.2 24.0 8.4 32.5 3.8 3.5 3.7 5.9 8.5
5 Feb 2019 EMG 1,803 18.7 25.1 9.7 30.1 4.5 3.0 2.0 6.9 5.0
30 Jan–4 Feb 2019 SWG 1,500 16.8 24.0 8.3 33.8 2.9 4.3 3.1 2.5 1.0 3.3 9.8
29 Jan 2019 EMG 1,786 18.2 25.8 9.2 30.3 4.5 3.0 1.9 7.1 4.5
29 Jan 2019 Piepoli 503 18.0 28.0 9.5 31.0 2.5 5.0 4.0 1.5 3.0
29 Jan 2019 Euromedia 800 16.1 24.2 10.0 33.7 1.4 5.1 3.1 6.3 9.5
28 Jan 2019 Quorum 1,000 19.1 26.6 9.6 30.9 5.0 8.8 4.3
23–28 Jan 2019 SWG 1,500 17.2 24.9 8.1 32.6 2.6 4.5 2.9 2.4 1.2 3.6 7.7
22 Jan 2019 EMG 1,801 17.9 26.5 8.9 30.1 4.7 2.6 2.1 7.2 3.6
16–21 Jan 2019 SWG 1,500 17.9 25.7 8.6 31.5 2.8 4.4 3.0 2.3 3.8 5.8
15–17 Jan 2019 Ipsos 1,000 17.3 25.4 7.1 35.8 3.4 3.5 7.5 10.4
15 Jan 2019 EMG 1,794 18.5 26.6 8.8 30.6 4.4 2.1 1.8 7.2 4.0
9–14 Jan 2019 SWG 1,500 17.3 25.2 8.2 32.2 3.1 4.2 3.2 2.5 4.1 7.0
7–10 Jan 2019 BiDiMedia 1,096 18.0 24.2 8.3 32.3 4.2 3.8 3.6 5.6 8.1
8 Jan 2019 EMG 1,540 19.1 26.1 8.3 31.0 4.1 2.0 2.0 7.4 4.9
3–7 Jan 2019 SWG 1,500 17.3 26.3 8.3 32.2 2.8 3.8 2.9 2.2 4.2 5.9
17–21 Dec 2018 BiDiMedia 1,018 16.8 24.8 7.3 33.7 1.4 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.0 8.9
18 Dec 2018 EMG 1,611 18.0 27.9 8.5 31.4 4.1 2.1 1.9 6.1 3.5
12–17 Dec 2018 SWG 1,500 16.8 26.5 8.0 33.0 2.3 4.0 2.8 2.4 4.2 6.5
11 Dec 2018 EMG 1,803 17.7 26.4 8.4 32.1 4.0 2.2 2.0 7.2 5.7
5–10 Dec 2018 SWG 1,500 17.5 26.2 8.7 32.0 2.3 3.7 3.0 2.4 4.2 5.8
3–6 Dec 2018 Twig 1,000 17.5 26.9 10.1 31.8 2.8 2.7 8.2 4.9
4 Dec 2018 EMG 1,784 18.5 25.7 8.2 32.1 4.0 2.2 2.1 7.0 6.4
28 Nov–3 Dec 2018 SWG 1,500 17.6 27.3 8.2 32.0 2.4 3.3 2.8 2.4 4.0 4.7
28 Nov 2018 Noto 18.0 25.0 9.5 34.0 2.0 4.0 2.5 2.0 6.0 9.0
27 Nov 2018 EMG 1,803 18.5 25.9 8.3 32.0 4.0 2.1 2.0 7.2 6.1
25 Nov 2018 Noto 17.0 25.0 9.0 33.0 2.0 3.5 2.5 2.0 6.0 8.0
19–22 Nov 2018 BiDiMedia 1,081 17.4 26.1 7.3 32.9 1.4 4.2 3.4 3.3 4.0 6.8
25 May 2014 Election results 40.8 21.2 16.8 6.2 3.7 11.3 19.6
  1. ^ Some polls include former LeU member parties MDP or SI or both, instead of LeU.
  2. ^ Some polls include CP. In March 2019, its leader Luigi de Magistris announced it would not participate in the election.
  3. ^ This column includes the results for the coalition formed by the FdV with IiC and GI.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Renzi's triumph in EU vote gives mandate for Italian reform
  2. ^ @lex_sala. "Referendum costituzionale 2016 Il No al 60%, la riforma non passa Renzi: «Ho perso io, mi dimetto". Corriere.it. Retrieved 2016-12-05.
  3. ^ "Paolo Gentiloni, Italian foreign minister, appointed PM". BBC News. 11 December 2016.
  4. ^ "Elezioni politiche: vincono M5s e Lega. Crollo del Partito democratico. Centrodestra prima coalizione. Il Carroccio sorpassa Forza Italia". 4 March 2018.
  5. ^ Sala, Alessandro (2018). "Elezioni 2018: M5S primo partito, nel centrodestra la Lega supera FI".
  6. ^ Italy election to result in hung parliament
  7. ^ "Governo, Conte accetta l'incarico e presenta la lista: 18 ministri, 5 le donne. Tria all'Economia". 31 May 2018. Retrieved 2 June 2018.
  8. ^ "Nasce il governo Conte. Presentata a Mattarella la lista dei ministri. Di Maio e Salvini vicepremier". RaiNews (in Italian). 1 June 2018. Retrieved 1 June 2018.