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2024 European Parliament election

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2024 European Parliament election
← 2019 TBD (2024)
All 705 seats to the European Parliament
353 seats needed for a majority
  File:Stéphane-Séjourné.jpg
Leader Manfred Weber Iratxe García Stéphane Séjourné
Alliance EPP S&D RE
Leader's seat Germany Spain France
Last election 21.0% 18.5% 13.0%
 
Leader Philippe Lamberts
Ska Keller 		Marco Zanni Raffaele Fitto
Ryszard Legutko
Alliance Greens/EFA ID ECR
Leader's seat Wallonia
Germany 		North-West Italy Southern Italy
Lesser Poland and Świętokrzyskie
Last election 11.7% 10.8% 8.2%
  File:Manon Aubry (48951348941) (cropped2).jpg
Leader Manon Aubry
Martin Schirdewan
Alliance The Left
Leader's seat France
Germany
Last election 6.5%
Incumbent European Commission

Von der Leyen Commission (EPP)
EPP-S&D-RE



The next election to the European Parliament is scheduled to be held in 2024, in line with the Treaty of Lisbon.[1][2] This will be the first European Parliament election scheduled after the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

There are no pan-European polls for the European elections. However, several organizations calculate the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament in advance to the EU election based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections. The projections prior to 31 January 2020 still include the United Kingdom, which left the EU on that date.[p 1]

Seats

The following table shows the projected number of seats for the groups in the EU Parliament.

Organisation Release
date 		Area GUE/ NGL S&D Greens/ EFA RE EPP ECR ID NI Others Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:European United Left–Nordic Green Left/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Party of European Socialists/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Greens–European Free Alliance/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Identity and Democracy/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Non-Inscrits/meta/color;"|
Europe Elects[p 2] 8 Oct 2021 EU27 50 154 47 94 156 78 75 36 15 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2
Der Föderalist[p 3] 13 Sep 2021 EU27 54 141 42 98 160 70 75 33 32 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|19
Der Föderalist[p 4] 21 Jul 2021 EU27 52 133 45 97 167 71 74 31 35 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|34
Europe Elects[p 5] 9 Jul 2021 EU27 52 144 55 94 156 75 77 34 18 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|12
Europe Elects[p 6] 5 Jun 2021 EU27 51 146 58 92 155 76 74 35 18 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|9
Der Föderalist[p 7] 24 May 2021 EU27 50 125 50 95 167 74 73 33 38 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|42
Europe Elects[p 8] 2 May 2021 EU27 52 144 56 93 158 75 74 34 19 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|14
Europe Elects[p 9] 2 Apr 2021 EU27 51 151 52 93 159 74 74 32 19 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|8
Der Föderalist[p 10] 29 Mar 2021 EU27 52 136 46 96 164 71 73 34 33 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|28
3 Mar 2021 Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group.[3]
Der Föderalist[p 11] 2 Feb 2021 EU27 52 135 45 94 184 70 71 21 33 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|49
Europe Elects[p 12] 5 Jan 2021 EU27 55 138 47 97 190 73 72 22 11 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|52
Europe Elects[p 13] 2 Dec 2020 EU27 55 136 48 95 195 68 73 23 12 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|59
Europe Elects[p 14] 31 Oct 2020 EU27 54 136 48 93 197 70 74 24 9 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|61
Der Föderalist[p 15] 4 Oct 2020 EU27 52 136 52 102 193 71 71 28 – style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|57
Europe Elects[p 16] 4 Oct 2020 EU27 55 136 49 95 195 71 77 23 4 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|59
Europe Elects[p 17] 31 Aug 2020 EU27 55 134 49 96 196 71 75 24 5 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|62
Europe Elects[p 18] 14 Aug 2020 EU27 54 134 49 97 198 70 75 23 5 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|64
Europe Elects[p 19] 24 Jul 2020 EU27 54 133 48 97 198 71 77 24 3 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|65
Europe Elects[p 20] 28 May 2020 EU27 55 135 47 98 197 70 77 23 3 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|62
Europe Elects[p 21] 30 Apr 2020 EU27 55 140 46 94 193 72 78 23 4 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|53
Europe Elects[p 22] 31 Mar 2020 EU27 57 135 51 92 188 72 83 21 6 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|53
Europe Elects[p 23] 29 Feb 2020 EU27 56 133 55 99 184 68 85 21 6 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|51
Europe Elects[p 24] 31 Jan 2020 EU27 55 130 53 101 182 70 85 23 6 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|52
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.[4]
Europe Elects[p 25] 31 Dec 2019 EU27 54 131 52 102 182 70 86 25 3 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|51
Europe Elects[p 26] 31 Dec 2019 EU28 53 153 52 103 177 103 82 25 3 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|24
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Nov 2019 EU28 49 157 61 107 176 95 80 25 1 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|19
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 46 151 62 115 175 92 78 30 2 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|24
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Sep 2019 EU28 48 151 63 118 170 87 79 32 3 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|19
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 47 154 64 116 166 89 80 32 3 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|12
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Jul 2019 EU28 48 153 65 117 168 85 79 33 3 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|15
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Jun 2019 EU28 46 145 74 119 167 64 80 54 2 style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|22
Redistribution of seats after Brexit 1 Feb 2020 EU27 40 148 68 97 187 62 76 27 – style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|39
2019 European Parliament election 26 May 2019 EU28 41 154 74 108 182 62 73 57 – style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|28

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2024 European Parliament election using a 6-poll moving average. From 31 January, the United Kingdom is not included.

Polls lead in October 2021

The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level. EU27 excludes the United Kingdom in this context. EU28 includes the United Kingdom.

Organisation Release
date 		Area GUE/ NGL S&D Greens/ EFA RE EPP ECR ID NI Others Lead
data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:European United Left–Nordic Green Left/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Party of European Socialists/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Greens–European Free Alliance/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Identity and Democracy/meta/color;"| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Non-Inscrits/meta/color;"|
Europe Elects[p 2] 8 Oct 2021 EU27 7.3% 20.3% 7.2% 12.0% 20.3% 10.5% 10.3% 5.3% 6.8% Tie
Europe Elects[p 5] 9 Jul 2021 EU27 7.2% 17.9% 8.0% 11.8% 21.2% 10.3% 10.6% 5.0% 8.0% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|3.3%
Europe Elects[p 6] 5 Jun 2021 EU27 7.8% 18.0% 9.1% 11.4% 20.6% 10.5% 10.4% 5.0% 7.1% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2.6%
Europe Elects[p 21] 2 May 2021 EU27 7.9% 18.3% 8.5% 11.3% 20.3% 10.5% 10.6% 5.1% 7.4% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2.0%
Europe Elects[p 22] 2 Apr 2021 EU27 8.0% 18.7% 8.2% 11.2% 21.6% 10.2% 10.8% 4.9% 6.3% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2.9%
Europe Elects[p 12] 2 Mar 2021 EU27 7.9% 18.9% 7.5% 11.1% 23.1% 10.3% 10.8% 3.8% 6.6% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|4.2%
Europe Elects[p 12] 2 Feb 2021 EU27 8.2% 18.6% 7.5% 10.9% 24.4% 10.1% 10.5% 3.8% 6.0% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|5.8%
3 Mar 2021 Hungary's Fidesz party leaves the EPP Group[3]
Europe Elects[p 12] 31 Dec 2020 EU27 8.4% 18.9% 7.5% 10.9% 24.1% 10.2% 10.5% 3.6% 5.9% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|5.2%
Europe Elects[p 13] 2 Dec 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.5% 7.7% 10.9% 24.8% 9.5% 10.5% 3.8% 6.0% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|6.3%
Europe Elects[p 14] 31 Oct 2020 EU27 7.6% 18.4% 7.7% 10.8% 25.0% 9.9% 10.6% 4.0% 6.1% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|6.6%
Europe Elects[p 16] 4 Oct 2020 EU27 7.9% 17.9% 7.8% 11.4% 24.4% 9.7% 11.0% 4.1% 5.7% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|6.5%
Europe Elects[p 17] 31 Aug 2020 EU27 8.1% 18.3% 7.4% 11.5% 25.0% 9.6% 10.9% 4.1% 5.2% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|6.7%
Europe Elects[p 18] 14 Aug 2020 EU27 8.0% 18.0% 7.2% 11.5% 25.3% 9.4% 10.8% 3.8% 6.0% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|7.3%
Europe Elects[p 19] 24 Jul 2020 EU27 8.3% 17.9% 7.4% 11.6% 25.7% 9.5% 10.9% 4.1% 4.6% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|7.8%
Europe Elects[p 20] 28 May 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.0% 7.2% 11.3% 25.2% 9.6% 11.1% 4.0% 5.4% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|7.2%
Europe Elects[p 21] 30 Apr 2020 EU27 8.2% 18.5% 7.2% 10.9% 25.3% 9.8% 11.4% 3.9% 4.7% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|6.8%
Europe Elects[p 22] 31 Mar 2020 EU27 8.5% 18.2% 8.0% 10.7% 24.1% 10.0% 11.8% 3.8% 4.9% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|5.9%
Europe Elects[p 23] 29 Feb 2020 EU27 9.1% 18.0% 8.4% 10.9% 22.7% 9.7% 12.5% 3.8% 4.9% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|4.7%
Europe Elects[p 24] 31 Jan 2020 EU27 8.0% 18.6% 8.4% 12.4% 20.5% 12.1% 12.1% 4.0% 3.9% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|1.9%
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union.[4]
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Dec 2019 EU28 8.1% 18.8% 8.2% 11.8% 20.9% 12.4% 11.9% 4.2% 3.7% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2.1%
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Nov 2019 EU28 8.0% 18.4% 8.4% 12.3% 20.3% 12.0% 12.0% 4.0% 3.8% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|1.9%
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Oct 2019 EU28 6.5% 17.8% 8.3% 13.1% 20.3% 10.0% 11.3% 4.8% 7.9% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2.5%
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Sep 2019 EU28 6.6% 19.5% 8.3% 12.3% 19.6% 9.7% 11.3% 4.8% 7.9% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|0.1%
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Aug 2019 EU28 6.9% 19.0% 8.7% 12.9% 20.0% 9.6% 11.4% 5.6% 5.9% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|1.0%
Europe Elects[p 1] 31 Jul 2019 EU28 6.6% 19.0% 9.4% 12.8% 19.3% 9.3% 11.5% 5.3% 6.7% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|0.3%
Europe Elects[p 1] 30 Jun 2019 EU28 6.9% 18.9% 10.3% 13.3% 19.1% 9.8% 11.4% 5.1% 5.2% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|0.2%
2019 European Parliament election[5] 26 May 2019 EU27 7.0% 18.9% 11.2% 12.3% 22.6% 8.1% 11.5% 4.3% 4.1% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|3.7%
2019 European Parliament election[p 1] EU28 6.5% 18.5% 11.7% 13.0% 21.0% 8.2% 10.8% 4.8% 5.5% style="background:Template:European People's Party group/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"|2.5%

Opinion poll sources

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  2. ^ a b Jensen, Linus Folke (8 October 2021). "EU Parliamentary Projection: Centre-Right, Centre-Left in Tossup for First Place". Europe Elects. Retrieved 8 October 2021.
  3. ^ Müller, Manuel (14 September 2021). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (September 2021): Sozialdemokratie im Aufschwung". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 20 September 2021.
  4. ^ Müller, Manuel (22 July 2021). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Juli 2021): Kommt die große Rechtsfraktion?". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 20 September 2021.
  5. ^ a b Jensen, Linus Folke (9 July 2021). "EU Parliamentary Projection: Greens down, ID up". Europe Elects. Retrieved 9 July 2021.
  6. ^ a b Jensen, Linus Folke (5 June 2021). "EU Parliamentary Projection: May Proves Out To Be a Stable Month". Europe Elects. Retrieved 9 July 2021.
  7. ^ Müller, Manuel (26 May 2021). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Mai 2021): S&D auf neuem Rekordtief, Zugewinne bei den Grünen". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 20 September 2021.
  8. ^ Jensen, Linus Folke (2 May 2021). "EU Parliamentary Projection: Centre-Left Takes a Hit". Europe Elects. Retrieved 2 May 2021.
  9. ^ Jensen, Linus Folke (2 March 2021). "EU Parliamentary Projection: Historic Setback for the Centre-Right". Europe Elects. Retrieved 8 April 2021.
  10. ^ Müller, Manuel (31 March 2021). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (März 2021): Fidesz-Austritt und CDU-Schwäche lassen EVP abstürzen". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 20 September 2021.
  11. ^ Müller, Manuel (3 February 2021). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 2021-07-15.
  12. ^ a b c d "EU Parliamentary Projection: Rounding Up the Tumultuous 2020". Europe Elects. Retrieved 6 January 2021.
  13. ^ a b "EU Parliamentary Projection: The Right-Wing in Retreat". Europe Elects. Retrieved 6 December 2020.
  14. ^ a b "EU Parliamentary Projection: Talent-Show Judges, Folk Singers, and Eastern Europe". Europe Elects. Retrieved 31 October 2020.
  15. ^ "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Oktober 2020): Sozialdemokraten verlieren, Liberale und Rechte gewinnen". foederalist.eu. Retrieved 28 October 2020.
  16. ^ a b "EU Parliamentary Projection: Second Wave of the Pandemic and Europeans Rally No More". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 October 2020.
  17. ^ a b "EU Parliamentary Projection: No Domino-Effect Caused by Brexit in Sight". Europe Elects. Retrieved 31 August 2020.
  18. ^ a b "EU Parliament Projection: Centre-Right EPP Would Win EU Election". Europe Elects. 14 August 2020. Retrieved 21 August 2020.
  19. ^ a b "EU Parliament Projection: One Year After the EU Election Post date". Europe Elects. Retrieved 29 May 2020.
  20. ^ a b "EU Parliament Projection: One Year After the EU Election Post date". Europe Elects. Retrieved 29 May 2020.
  21. ^ a b c "EU Parliament Projection: Corona Rallies Europeans Around the Flag". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 March 2020.
  22. ^ a b c "EU Parliament Projection: Government Parties Still Gaining". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 April 2020.
  23. ^ a b "European Parliament Projection: Ireland, Thuringia, and the Aftermath". Europe Elects. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
  24. ^ a b "European Parliament Projection: The EU Parliament Post-Brexit". Europe Elects. February 2020. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
  25. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Twitter. Retrieved 31 December 2019.
  26. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 31 December 2019.

References

  1. ^ "EUR-Lex - 12007L/TXT - EN - EUR-Lex". eur-lex.europa.eu. Retrieved 2021-07-15.
  2. ^ "Elections". European Parliament. Retrieved 2021-07-15.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  3. ^ a b Crowcroft, Orlando (2021-03-03). "Hungary PM Orban's party quits the largest group in European Parliament". Euronews. Retrieved 2021-07-09.
  4. ^ a b Jamieson, Alastair; Crowcroft, Orlando (2020-01-31). "Sadness and celebration as Britain leaves the European Union". Euronews. Retrieved 2021-07-09.
  5. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 November 2020.
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