2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election
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Elections in Hawaii |
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The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Hawaii and Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii.
After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic Governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality. Ige's vote share of 62.67% is the highest of any gubernatorial candidate in Hawaiian history surpassing the previous record of 62.53% set by Linda Lingle in 2006.
Republicans Andria Tupola and Marissa Kerns headed one of two 2018 major-party gubernatorial tickets that included two women. The other such ticket had Idaho's 2018 Democratic nominees for Governor and Lieutenant Governor, Paulette Jordan and Kristin Collum.[1] This was Hawaii's first gubernatorial election since 1994 without Linda Lingle or Duke Aiona as the Republican nominee.
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Ernest Caravalho, Democratic Party of Hawaii, chair, House District 29[2]
- Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[3][4][5]
- David Ige, incumbent governor[3][6]
- Wendell Kaehuaea, security guard and perennial candidate[7]
- Van Tanabe
Withdrew
- Clayton Hee, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014[8][9]
Debates
Dates | Location | Ige | Hanabusa | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
July 6, 2018 | Honolulu, Hawaii | Participant | Participant | Full debate - YouTube |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige |
Colleen Hanabusa |
Clayton Hee |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | – | 18% |
Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 40% | – | 16% |
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) | June 21 – July 6, 2018 | 518 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 57% | – | 11% |
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) | April 21 – May 7, 2018 | 888 | ± 3.4% | 23% | 52% | 6% | 19% |
Merriman River Group | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 31% | 37% | 11% | 16% |
Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 27% | 47% | 11% | 15% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 124,572 | 51.4 | |
Democratic | Colleen Hanabusa | 107,631 | 44.4 | |
Democratic | Ernest Caravalho | 5,662 | 2.3 | |
Democratic | Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a | 2,298 | 0.9 | |
Democratic | Richard Kim | 1,576 | 0.6 | |
Democratic | Van Tanabe | 775 | 0.3 | |
Total votes | 242,514 | 100.0 |
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Bernard Carvalho, Mayor of Kauai County[11]
- Will Espero, State Senate Vice President and candidate for HI-01 in 2014[12]
- Josh Green, state senator[4][13][12]
- Kim Coco Iwamoto, former state Board of Education member[14]
- Jill Tokuda, State Senator[3]
Withdrew
- Alan Arakawa, Mayor of Maui County[15] (running for Maui County Council)[16]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bernard Carvalho |
Will Espero |
Josh Green |
Kim Coco Iwamoto |
Jill Tokuda |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 13% | 5% | 31% | 10% | 17% | 26% |
Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 6% | 34% | 10% | 14% | 22% |
Merriman River Group | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 19% | 8% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 32% |
Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 9% | 19% | 5% | 12% | 41% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Josh Green | 74,845 | 31.4 | |
Democratic | Jill Tokuda | 68,124 | 28.6 | |
Democratic | Bernard P. Carvalho | 45,825 | 19.2 | |
Democratic | Kim Coco Iwamoto | 34,243 | 14.3 | |
Democratic | Will Espero | 15,463 | 6.5 | |
Total votes | 238,500 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- John Carroll, former state representative, and former state senator [7][17]
- Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, former assistant superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel[18]
- Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives[19][17]
Withdrew
- Bob McDermott, state representative and nominee for HI-02 in 2002[20][21]
Endorsements
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Carroll |
Raymond L'Heureux |
Andria Tupola |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 22% | 4% | 39% | 22% |
Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 143 | ± 8.4% | 28% | 8% | 41% | 23% |
Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 134 | ± 8.6% | 40% | – | 28% | 32% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Andria Tupola | 17,297 | 55.5 | |
Republican | John Carroll | 10,974 | 35.2 | |
Republican | Ray L'Heureux | 2,885 | 9.3 | |
Total votes | 31,156 | 100.0 |
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Marissa Kerns
- Steve Lipscomb
- Jeremy Low
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marissa Kerns |
Jeremy Low |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 26% | 20% | 54% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Marissa Dipasupil Kerns | 9,758 | 35.4 | |
Republican | Steve Lipscomb | 9,543 | 34.7 | |
Republican | Jeremy Low | 8,232 | 29.9 | |
Total votes | 27,533 | 100.0 |
Green primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Jim Brewer
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Jim Brewer | 454 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 454 | 100.0 |
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Renee Ing
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Renee Ing | 444 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 444 | 100.0 |
Nonpartisan primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Selina Blackwell
- Link El
- Terrence Teruya
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Nonpartisan | Terrence Teruya | 543 | 47.7 | |
Nonpartisan | Selina Blackwell | 497 | 43.7 | |
Nonpartisan | Link El | 98 | 8.6 | |
Total votes | 1,138 | 100.0 |
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Ernest Magaoay
- Paul Robotti
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Nonpartisan | Paul Robotti | 536 | 50.6 | |
Nonpartisan | Ernest Magaoay | 523 | 49.4 | |
Total votes | 1,059 | 100.0 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[23] | Safe D | October 16, 2018 |
The Washington Post[24] | Safe D | October 16, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[25] | Safe D | October 22, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[26] | Safe D | October 12, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Safe D | October 19, 2018 |
Real Clear Politics[28] | Safe D | October 21, 2018 |
Daily Kos[29] | Safe D | October 22, 2018 |
Fox News[30][a] | Likely D | October 19, 2018 |
Politico[31] | Safe D | October 19, 2018 |
Governing[32] | Safe D | October 22, 2018 |
- Notes
- ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Debates
Dates | Location | Ige | Tupola | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 29, 2018 | Honolulu, Hawaii | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige (D) |
Andria Tupola (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merriman River Group | October 8–12, 2018 | 961 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | 11% |
Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 24% | 25% |
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 244,934 | 62.67% | +13.22% | |
Republican | Andria Tupola | 131,719 | 33.70% | -3.38% | |
Green | Jim Brewer | 10,123 | 2.59% | N/A | |
Nonpartisan | Terrence Teruya | 4,067 | 1.04% | N/A | |
Total votes | 390,843 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
References
- ^ Trahant, Mark (August 19, 2018). "Idaho is no longer safe for Republicans; Paulette Jordan trails by 8 points". Indian Country Today. Retrieved December 2, 2019 – via News Maven.
- ^ "Ernest Caravalho". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 6, 2018.
- ^ a b c Singer, Jeff (June 6, 2017). "Why several Hawaii Democrats are mulling primary bids against Gov. David Ige". Daily Kos. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
- ^ a b Hooser, Gary (August 9, 2017). "Brace yourselves, primaries are coming". The Garden Island. Archived from the original on August 15, 2017. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
- ^ "U.S. Rep. Hanabusa announces plans to run for governor". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
- ^ Callis, Tom (January 3, 2016). "Green saving up for run at higher office". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Archived from the original on November 16, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
- ^ a b Cook Lauer, Nancy (January 6, 2018). "Familiar candidate aims for governor". West Hawaii Today. Archived from the original on January 6, 2018. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
- ^ Blair, Chad (February 27, 2018). "Former Sen. Clayton Hee Is Running For Governor". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
- ^ Blair, Chad (June 4, 2018). "Clayton Hee Withdraws From Hawaii Governor's Race". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Primary Election 2018 -State of Hawaii – Statewide" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Retrieved August 12, 2018.
- ^ "Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. to run for lieutenant governor". KHON 2. October 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
- ^ a b "Sens. Green, Espero announce runs for lieutenant governor in 2018". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
- ^ Cook Lauer, Nancy (June 13, 2017). "3 show interest in Green's seat as senator eyes lieutenant gov bid". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Archived from the original on August 23, 2017. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
- ^ "Kim Coco Iwamoto announces bid for Lieutenant Governor". Island News KITV 4. November 5, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
- ^ "Maui Mayor Arakawa says he plans to run for lieutenant governor". Hawaii News Now. May 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
- ^ Pignataro, Anthony (April 3, 2018). "Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa to hold $1,000/person fundraiser at swanky Waikiki restaurant". MauiTime. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
- ^ a b Daverta, Jobeth (Jan 21, 2018). "Hawaii minority leader Rep. Andria Tupola enters gubernatorial race". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved Jan 26, 2018.
- ^ Dible, Max (April 14, 2018). "Republican candidates for state office stump in Kona". West Hawaii Today.
- ^ "The Hawaii Republican Party has a new chair". Retrieved 2018-04-05.
- ^ Nagaoka, Ashley (May 12, 2017). "McDermott touts leadership, officialy [sic] enters 2018 race for governor". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved May 13, 2017.
- ^ Dayton, Kevin (August 29, 2017). "Rep. McDermott withdraws from governor's race". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved August 30, 2017.
- ^ Beers, Axel (August 2, 2018). "MauiTime endorses Andria Tupola for governor (Republican) in 2018 Primary Election". Maui Time.
- ^ "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
- ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
- ^ "2018 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. August 9, 2018.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
- ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
- ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
- ^ "General Election 2018 Final Summary Report" (PDF). State of Hawaii. November 6, 2018. Retrieved December 20, 2018.
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites