2011 United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum
![]() | This article documents a referendum. Information may change rapidly as the event progresses, and initial news reports may be unreliable. The latest updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. (May 2011) |
In the United Kingdom, the alternative vote referendum is an ongoing public vote on whether to change the system for electing the House of Commons, the lower house of the national Parliament at Westminster. At present members are elected under the "first-past-the-post" (plurality) system; the question in the UK referendum concerns whether to replace this with the alternative vote (AV) electoral system.
The referendum was agreed to as part of the Conservative – Liberal Democrat Coalition Agreement drawn up after the 2010 general election. The proposal for a referendum was first put before Parliament in July 2010 and eventually assented to on 16 February 2011 as part of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act. This is only the second time a referendum has been held throughout the whole of the United Kingdom in British history; the first occasion was the United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum, 1975. It is also the first UK-wide referendum that is not merely consultative but legally binding on the executive branch of government, whatever the result.[1]
The referendum will take place on Thursday 5 May 2011, in which all registered Parliamentary electors (i.e. British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens living in the UK and enrolled British citizens living overseas[2]) who will be aged 18 or over on election day will be entitled to vote. Though not Parliamentary electors, members of the House of Lords who are local government or European Parliamentary electors will also be entitled to vote in the referendum.[3] The deadline for voters in England, Wales and Northern Ireland to register to vote in the referendum was midnight on Thursday 14 April 2011, whilst voters in Scotland had until midnight on Friday 15 April 2011 to register. Anyone in the United Kingdom who qualifies as an anonymous elector had until midnight on Tuesday 26 April 2011 to register.[4]
History
Historical context
AV and the single transferable vote (PR-STV) for the House of Commons were debated in Parliament several times between 1917 and 1931 and came close to being adopted. Both the Liberals and Labour were in support at various times of a change from non-transferable voting in one-, two- and three-member constituencies. PR-STV was adopted for the university seats (which were abolished in 1949).[5] Both AV and PR-STV involve voters rank ordering preferences. However, PR-STV is considered to be a form of proportional representation, using multi-member constituencies, while AV is not (although some scholars have described AV as "semi-PR").[6]
In 1950 all constituencies became single-member and all votes non-transferable. From then until 2010, the Labour and Conservative parties, the two parties who formed each government of the United Kingdom normally by virtue of an overall majority in the Commons, always voted down proposals for moving away from this uniform system for the Commons, which came to be known as ‘First Past the Post’ (FPTP). Other voting systems were introduced for various other British elections. PR-STV was re-introduced in Northern Ireland and list-PR introduced for European elections except in N Ireland.
While out of power, the Labour party set up a working group to examine electoral reform. The resulting Plant commission reported in 1993 and recommended the adoption of the supplementary vote, a system very similar to AV, for the Commons.[7] Labour's 1997 manifesto committed the party to a referendum on the voting system for the Commons and to setting up an independent commission to recommend a proportional alternative to FPTP to be put in that referendum.[8]
After winning the 1997 General Election, the new Labour government consequently set up the Jenkins Commission into electoral reform, supported by the Liberal Democrats, the third party in British politics of recent years and long supporters of proportional representation. (The Commission chair, Roy Jenkins, was a Liberal Democrat peer and former Labour minister.) The commission reported in September 1998 and proposed the novel alternative vote top-up or AV+ system. Having been tasked to meet a "requirement for broad proportionality",[9] the Commission rejected both FPTP, as the status quo, and AV as options. It pointed out (chapter 3, para 21) that "the single-member constituency is not an inherent part of the British parliamentary tradition. It was unusual until 1885...Until [then] most seats were two-member..." (the English system established in 1276). Jenkins rejected AV because "so far from doing much to relieve disproportionality, it is capable of substantially adding to it".[10] AV was also described as "disturbingly unpredictable" and "unacceptably unfair", although this must be placed in the context of the recent 1997 general election, which had just delivered the Conservatives' worst defeat since 1832, and which several simulations suggested AV would have made even worse for the Conservatives while increasing the majority for Labour.
However, legislation for a referendum was not put forward. Proportional systems were introduced for the new Scottish Parliament and Welsh and London Assemblies, and supplementary vote was introduced for mayoral elections. With House of Lords reform in 1999, AV was introduced for elect replacements for the remaining 92 hereditary peers who sit in the Lords.[11]
At the next General Election in 2001, the Labour manifesto now stated they would review the experience of the new systems (in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) and the Jenkins report, to assess the possibility of changes to the Commons, which would still be subjected to a referendum.[12] Electoral reform in the Commons remained at a standstill, although in the Scottish Parliament, a coalition of Labour and the Liberal Democrats introduced STV for local elections in Scotland.
Pre-election
In February 2010, the then Labour Government, who had been in power since 1997, used their majority to pass an amendment to their Constitutional Reform Bill to include a referendum on the introduction of AV to be held in the next Parliament, citing a desire to restore trust in Parliament in the wake of the 2009 expenses scandal.[13] A Liberal Democrat amendment to hold the referendum earlier, and on STV, was defeated by 476 votes to 69.[13] There was insufficient time in the 2005-2010 Parliament for the Bill to be able to become law before Parliament was dissolved and, as such, the move was dismissed by several Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs as a political manoeuvre.[13]
At the ensuing 2010 general election campaign, the Labour manifesto supported the introduction of AV via a referendum, to "ensure that every MP is supported by the majority of their constituents voting at each election".[14] The Liberal Democrats argued for proportional representation, preferably single transferable vote, and the Conservatives argued for the retention of FPTP. Both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats proposed reducing the number of MPs, while the Conservative Party argued for more equal sized constituencies.
Election outcome to Queen's Speech
The 2010 General Election held on 6 May resulted in a hung parliament, the first since 1974, leading to a period of negotiations. Honouring a pre-election pledge, the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg entered into negotiations with the Conservatives as the party who had registered most votes and seats. William Hague offered the Liberal Democrats a referendum on the Alternative Vote as part of a "final offer" in the Conservatives' negotiations for a proposed "full and proper" coalition between the two parties.[15] Labour also offered the Liberal Democrats the Alternative Vote without referendum, but these negotiations quickly ended.[15] On 11 May 2010, Prime Minister Gordon Brown stepped down, followed by the establishment of a full coalition government between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, with Conservative leader David Cameron becoming Prime Minister and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg becoming Deputy Prime Minister.
The initial Conservative – Liberal Democrat Coalition Agreement, dated 11 May 2010, detailed the issues which had been agreed between the two parties before they committed to entering into coalition. On the issue of an electoral reform referendum, it stated:
The parties will bring forward a Referendum Bill on electoral reform, which includes provision for the introduction of the Alternative Vote in the event of a positive result in the referendum, as well as for the creation of fewer and more equal sized constituencies. Both parties will whip their Parliamentary Parties in both Houses to support a simple majority referendum on the Alternative Vote, without prejudice to the positions parties will take during such a referendum.[16]
Following the agreement between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, with the new coalition government now formed, a commitment to the referendum was included in the coalition government's Queen's Speech on 25 May 2010 as the Parliamentary Reform Bill, although with no date set for the referendum.[17]
The coalition agreement committed both parties in the government to "whip" their Parliamentary parties in both the House of Commons and House of Lords to support the bill, thereby ensuring that it could reasonably be expected to be passed into law due to the simple majority in the Commons of the combined Conservative – Liberal Democrat voting bloc, due to the fact that the Lords can only delay, rather than block, a Bill passed by the Commons.
Passage through Parliament
According to The Guardian reporting after the Queen's Speech, unnamed pro-referendum Cabinet members were believed to want the referendum to be held on 5 May 2011, to coincide with Scottish parliament, Welsh assembly and many English local council elections, with Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's prior hope of a referendum as early as October 2010 being unrealistic due to the parliamentary programme announced in the speech.[18]
On 5 July 2010, Clegg announced the detailed plans for the Parliamentary Reform Bill in a statement to the House of Commons, as part of the wider package of voting and election reforms set out in the coalition agreement, including setting the referendum date as 5 May 2011.[19][20] In addition to a referendum on AV, the reform bill also included the other coalition measures of reducing and resizing the Westminster parliamentary constituencies, introducing fixed term parliaments and setting the date of the next general election as 7 May 2015, changing the voting threshold for early dissolution of parliament to 55%, and providing for the recall of MPs by their constituents.[21]
The plans to hold the vote on 5 May faced criticism from some Conservative MPs for potentially causing a 'differential result' where turnout was predicted to be higher in those places where local elections are occurring, which would 'artificially inflate' turnout on an issue believed to be unimportant to the electorate. It also faced criticism from Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish MPs for the effects it would have on their devolved elections on the same day, while Clegg himself faced further criticism from Labour, and implied lessening support from Liberal Democrat MPs, for backing down on earlier Liberal Democrat positions on proportional representation.[22] Clegg defended the date, stating the referendum question was simple and that it would save £17m in costs.[23] Over 45 MPs, mostly Conservatives, signed a motion calling for the date to be moved.[24] In September 2010, Ian Davidson MP, chairman of the Commons Scottish affairs select committee, stated after consultation with the Scottish Parliament that there was "unanimous" opposition among Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) to the referendum date, following the "chaos" of the combined 2007 Scottish parliament and council elections.[25]
On 22 July 2010, the proposal for fixed term parliaments was put before parliament as the Fixed-term Parliaments Bill, while the proposals for the AV referendum, change in dissolution arrangements and equalising constituencies were put forward in the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill, which accordingly has three parts - Part 1 – Voting system for parliamentary elections, Part 2 – Parliamentary constituencies and Part 3 – Miscellaneous and general.[26][27] The Bill contained the text of a proposed referendum question.[26]
The question proposed was:[28]
Do you want the United Kingdom to adopt the “alternative vote” system instead of the current “first past the post” system for electing Members of Parliament to the House of Commons?
This wording was criticised by the Electoral Commission, saying that "particularly those with lower levels of education or literacy, found the question hard work and did not understand it". The Electoral Commission recommended a changed wording to make the issue easier to understand,[29] and the government subsequently amended the Bill to bring it into line with the Electoral Commission's recommendations.[30]
The Bill passed an interim vote in the Commons on 7 September 2010 by 328 votes to 269[24]
An amendment proposed by Lord Rooker (Independent) to require a minimum turn-out of 40% for the referendum to be valid was supported by Labour, a majority of cross-benchers and ten rebel Conservatives and passed in the House of Lords by one vote.[31] Labour's 2010 AV referendum proposal had not included such a threshold and they were criticised for seeking to impose one for this referendum, while the 2011 Welsh referendum, held under a Bill passed by Labour, also had no threshold,[32] (and would have failed if it had had one, as turnout in that referendum was only 35%). In the latter hours of debate, a "game" of parliamentary ping-pong saw the Commons overturning the threshold amendment before being reimposed by the Lords, and being removed again.[1]
After some compromises between the two Houses on amendments, the Bill was passed into law by 16 February 2011.[1]
Referendum details
Legislation
The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 provides for the holding of the referendum, and the related changes if it leads to the adoption of AV. Passing the bill into law was a necessary measure before the referendum could actually take place.[26] It received Royal Assent from Elizabeth II on 16 February 2011.[1]
The Act has the following introduction:[27]
An Act to make provision for a referendum on the voting system for parliamentary
elections and to provide for parliamentary elections to be held under the
alternative vote system if a majority of those voting in the referendum are in
favour of that; to make provision about the number and size of parliamentary
constituencies; and for connected purposes
Question
Based on the coalition agreement, the referendum is to be a simple majority yes/no question as to whether to replace the current First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral system used in general elections with the Alternative Vote (AV) system.
The question posed by the referendum is:[30]
At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?
In Wales, the question on the ballot paper also appears in Welsh:
Ar hyn o bryd, mae’r DU yn defnyddio’r system “y cyntaf i’r felin” i ethol ASau i Dŷ’r Cyffredin. A ddylid defnyddio’r system “pleidlais amgen” yn lle hynny?
Date and voting
The date for the referendum is scheduled for 5 May 2011, coinciding with various United Kingdom local elections, the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, the 2011 Welsh Assembly election and the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly election.[19] In the vote count, the referendum ballots in England, Scotland and Wales will be counted after the various election ballots, from 4pm on 6 May 2011.[33] The referendum has no minimum threshold on the required turnout needed for the result to be valid.[1]
Anyone who is eligible to vote in a general election is entitled to vote in the referendum, as long as they are on the Electoral Register.[2] This includes British citizens living outside the UK who are registered as overseas electors. In addition, Members of the House of Lords, who are not eligible to vote in a general election, are entitled to vote in the referendum, provided they are entitled to vote in local elections.
Campaign positions
Political parties
Political parties' position on the referendum | For a Yes vote (introduce AV) | No official party position | For a No vote (retain FPTP) |
---|---|---|---|
Parties elected to the House of Commons | Liberal Democrats Scottish National Party Sinn Féin Plaid Cymru SDLP Green Party of England and Wales Alliance Party of Northern Ireland |
Labour Party | Conservative Party Democratic Unionist Party |
Parties elected to the European Parliament or regional assemblies | UKIP Scottish Green |
British National Party Ulster Unionist Party Irish Green Party (Northern Ireland region) | |
Minor parties | Liberal Party Mebyon Kernow English Democrats Christian Party Christian Peoples Alliance Pirate Party UK United Kingdom Libertarian Party |
Socialist Party of Great Britain | Traditional Unionist Voice Respect Party Communist Party of Britain Socialist Party of England and Wales Alliance for Workers' Liberty |
Coalition parties
The coalition partners plan to campaign on opposite sides, with the Liberal Democrats supporting AV and the Conservatives opposing it.[34]
Despite the Conservative Party's formal position, party members aligned to the Conservative Action for Electoral Reform, an internal party group in favour of electoral reform, are campaigning in favour,[35] while a BBC News report describes "some Tory MPs" as being "relaxed" about a yes result.[36] Some Conservatives are campaigning in favour of AV, e.g. Andrew Boff AM;[37] and Andrew Marshall, former head of the Conservative Group on Camden Council.[38] The Conservative party uses a system of successive ballots to elect its leader,[39] which has similarities to AV (since the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated in each round) and has been described as a "form of AV".[40]
Other parties represented in the House of Commons
The previous Labour government sought to introduce AV before the 2010 general election. Labour elected a new leader after the general election and almost all of the leadership candidates supported AV, including winner Ed Miliband;[41][42][43] Andy Burnham was the sole leadership contender who was more critical of the referendum.[44] The party has, however, voiced opposition to the bill currently providing for the referendum, on the grounds of the inclusion of boundary changes that are viewed as beneficial to the Conservative party.[45]
Plaid Cymru supports AV, but will not be taking an active role in the campaign, as it is focusing on separate Welsh votes on the same day.[36] The Scottish National Party, while maintaining its longstanding support for STV, also supports a Yes vote in the referendum.[36] Both of these parties opposed the planned referendum date, as they did not want it held at the same time as the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections and the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections respectively.[24]
Among the Northern Irish parties, the Alliance Party and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) support AV.[46] The SDLP leader, Margaret Ritchie, announced that her party will actively campaign in favour.[47] Sinn Fein is now also supporting a Yes vote, but the Democratic Unionist Party supports a No vote.[48]
The Green Party of England and Wales voted in favour of joining the campaign for AV in the referendum at its September 2010 party conference. Many leading figures in the party support the change as a step towards their preferred system, proportional representation.[49] Previously, the party's leader and only MP, Caroline Lucas, had called for a referendum that included a choice of proportional representation.[50] But at their Conference, Deputy Leader Adrian Ramsay argued that "If you vote No in this referendum, nobody would know whether you were rejecting AV because you wanted genuine reform, or were simply opposing any reform."[49]
Minor parties
The United Kingdom Independence Party's National Executive Committee has formally announced that it will be supporting Alternative Vote, although they would prefer a proportional system.[51] An e-mail was sent to members informing them that they may vote against AV, but are not allowed to campaign.[36][52]
The British National Party supports proportional representation and has criticised AV as not being proportional.[53] They are supporting a 'No' vote.[36]
The Respect Party also supports proportional representation and is campaigning against AV.[36] Rob Hoveman, on behalf of Tower Hamlets Respect, wrote to the East London Advertiser on 24 February 2011 urging a 'No' vote on the grounds that the AV system created an even greater imbalance between votes and seats, and urging a proportional system instead.[54]
The Scottish Green Party is also supporting AV, although it prefers the adoption of STV for all elections.[55][36]
The Ulster Unionist Party and Traditional Unionist Voice support a No vote.[48] The Green Party in Northern Ireland also opposes the change to the AV, as they view it as a betrayal of proportional representation.[56]
The English Democrats,[36] Christian Peoples Alliance[36] and The Christian Party all support AV.[57] Pirate Party UK has endorsed a 'Yes' vote, with over 90% of members expressing support for AV.[58]
The Liberal Party agreed to support the 'yes' campaign, seeing AV as "a potential 'stepping stone' to further reform" and STV.[59]
The Communist Party of Britain opposes AV.[36]
Mebyon Kernow, the Cornish nationalist party, favours proportional representation and is disappointed that the referendum will not give voters that option.[60] However, leader Dick Cole announced on 1 April, 2011 that Mebyon Kernow will be supporting the Yes campaign. [61]
United Kingdom Libertarian Party, favours AV[62] as a slight improvement on first past the post.
The Socialist Party of Great Britain has adopted a neutral position, arguing "what matters more is what we use our votes for" in the context of class struggle.[63]
The Socialist Party of England and Wales opposes AV, pointing out that it is not more proportional than First Past the Post. [64]
The Alliance for Workers' Liberty opposes AV, arguing that it does not offer progress on the party's main democratic demands.[65]
Politicians
Prime Minister David Cameron of the Conservative Party and the Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats made speeches backing the 'No' and 'Yes' campaigns respectively on the same day, but were thereafter not expected to take much part in the campaigns,[66] although both have been active since.
Former Labour foreign secretary Margaret Beckett will be president of the No to AV campaign.[67]
Labour leader Ed Miliband has said he will take an active part in the 'Yes' campaign,[68] while Wales's First Minister and Welsh Labour Leader Carwyn Jones[69] and Scottish Labour Leader Iain Gray are both also supporting AV.[70] Also supporting the Yes campaign are over 50 Labour MPs including Alan Johnson, Peter Hain, Hilary Benn, John Denham, Liam Byrne, Sadiq Khan, Tessa Jowell, Ben Bradshaw, Douglas Alexander,[71] Alistair Darling,[72] Diane Abbott and Debbie Abrahams.[73] Labour peers supporting the 'Yes' campaign include Lord Mandelson, Oona King, Raymond Plant (chair of Labour's 1993 working group on electoral reform), Andrew Adonis, Prof. Anthony Giddens, former Labour leader Neil Kinnock, former deputy leader Roy Hattersley and Glenys Kinnock,[74] while further Labour figures supporting AV include London Mayoral candidate Ken Livingstone,[73] Michael Cashman MEP, Tony Benn,[75] and former Labour council candidate and wife of the Speaker, Sally Bercow.[76]
The Liberal Democrats support a Yes vote and many individual Liberal Democrat politicians are active in the Yes campaign. The SNP leader, Alex Salmond, is supporting a Yes vote.[70] UKIP are supporting a Yes vote and their principal spokesmen on the campaign will be William Dartmouth MEP and party leader, Nigel Farage MEP.[51]
Supporting the no campaign are both senior Conservative (William Hague, Ken Clarke, George Osborne, Theresa May, Philip Hammond, Steve Norris and Baroness Warsi[77]) and Labour politicians (including John Prescott, David Blunkett, John Reid, Tony Lloyd, John Healey, Caroline Flint, Hazel Blears, Beverley Hughes, Paul Boateng, John Hutton and Lord Falconer).[67] The Conservative Party has announced that seven MPs (Conor Burns, George Eustice, Sam Gyimah, Kwasi Kwarteng, Charlotte Leslie, Priti Patel, Chris Skidmore) and two former candidates (Chris Philp, Maggie Throup) will act as party spokesmen in the No campaign.[78] Overall, as of 27 April 2011, over half of Labour MPs are supporting the No campaign rather than the Yes campaign, with other notable opponents of AV including Paul Goggins, Ann Clwyd, Sir Gerald Kaufman, Austin Mitchell, Margaret Hodge, Lindsay Hoyle, Jim Fitzpatrick, Dennis Skinner and Keith Vaz.[72] Also supporting a No vote is crossbencher and former SDP leader Lord Owen, who is supporting the No to AV But Yes to PR campaign.[79]
Conservative politician Michael Gove was initially mistakenly announced by the No to AV campaign as opposing AV, but his advisers stated that he had never been involved in the campaign and had not yet made up his mind.[80] Over five Labour MPs announced as opposing AV were also found to have been wrongly included:[81][82] for example, Alun Michael is supporting a 'Yes' vote,[81] while Meg Hillier will not be lending her name to either campaign.[83]
Some Conservative politicians do support AV, including John Strafford, a former member of the Conservative party's national executive, who chairs the Conservative campaign in favour of a Yes vote.[84]
Other organisations
AV campaigning organisations
Two campaign groups have been established in response to the proposed referendum, one on each side of the debate. NOtoAV has been established to campaign against the change to the Alternative Vote[85] and YES! To Fairer Votes[86] has been established to campaign in favour.[87]
Political reform groups
Take Back Parliament,[88] the Electoral Reform Society,[89] Make My Vote Count,[90] and Unlock Democracy[91] are all campaigning in favour of the change to the AV.
Trade unions
The GMB Union opposes the change to the AV. It will provide "substantial" sums of money to the No campaign and marshal its members to vote no.[92]
Think tanks
Compass supports the change to the AV and has urged the Labour Party to do so too.[43][93] It prefers a switch to a more proportional system, but views AV as superior to FPTP. ResPublica supports the change to the AV and has urged the Conservative Party to do so too.[94] Policy Exchange opposes the change to AV.[95] Ekklesia supports the change to AV.[96]
A report by the Institute for Public Policy Research in January 2011 was very critical of FPTP's flaws,[97] while a report in April 2011 came down in support of AV over FPTP.[98] However, the IPPR also previously called for a wider choice in the referendum and favours Alternative Vote Plus over FPTP or AV.[99]
Academics
A number of academics have entered the debate, either in mainstream media or through blogs and social networking.
Those in favour of AV include David Held (LSE), Patrick Dunleavy (LSE), and Helen Margetts (Oxford),[100] Thom Brooks (Newcastle),[101] Alastair McMillan (Sheffield), [102] and Ben Saunders (Stirling).[103]
AV has been criticised as "deeply flawed" by Dan Felsenthal (LSE), though he also describes it as "a minor improvement on the current first-past-the-post system".[104]
David S. Moon (Sheffield) has argued that AV would be worse than FPTP, though he regards both as flawed and supports a move to proportional representation.[105]
At a March 2011 Voting Power in Practice annual workshop, held at the London School of Economics (LSE), 22 voting theory specialists voted to select the "best voting procedure" to elect a candidate from a selection of three or more. First past the post received no votes, compared to 10 for AV, although another system, Approval Voting (not on offer in the referendum), received 15 votes.[106]
Other organisations
Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth support the Yes! To Fairer Votes campaign,[107] as do the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust,[108] Operation Black Vote, the New Economics Foundation, 38 Degrees and bassac.[109] Educational trust The Constitution Society has also worked to increase public awareness of the issues involved in the debate.[110]
Media
The Guardian,[111] The Independent[112], The Daily Mirror,[113] and The Financial Times[114] support the change to the AV. The Sun, the Daily Mail, The Times, the Daily Express and the Daily Telegraph oppose the AV.[115] The Economist supports a No vote, but does want to see reform of the current electoral system. [116]
Campaigners and celebrities
Supporting the 'Yes' campaign are campaigner and musician Billy Bragg;[67] broadcaster and Labour peer Melvyn Bragg; campaigner and actress Joanna Lumley; Labour supporter and broadcaster Tony Robinson; designer and ethical fashion campaigner Amisha Ghadiali; Annette Lawson, chairwoman of the national alliance of women's organisations; and Simon Woolley, director and co-founder of Operation Black Vote.[66] AV is also supported by Kevin Maguire, associate editor of the Daily Mirror newspaper,[117] and journalist Polly Toynbee.[118] Billy Hayes, of the Communication Workers' Union, has also campaigned for a Yes vote.[119]
Celebrities supporting a 'Yes' vote include comedian David Mitchell,[120] comedian and actor Eddie Izzard,[121] author Naomi Alderman, playwright Bonnie Greer, comedian Francesca Martinez, actress Helena Bonham Carter, Oscar award winning actor Colin Firth, actor and Liberal Democrat supporter John Cleese, comedian Stephen Fry, actor Art Malik, John O'Farrell, actor Richard Wilson, editor and writer Rowan Davies, broadcaster Greg Dyke, co-founder of the Ministry of Sound James Palumbo,[66] actor and comedian David Schneider,[122] Kris Akabusi, Chris Addison, Josie Long, Benjamin Zephaniah and Honor Blackman. Comedian and actor Steve Coogan is also supporting a Yes vote.[123]
Supporting a 'No' vote are television presenter Esther Rantzen,[124]; scientist and Labour peer Lord Winston;[66][125] nightclub impressario Peter Stringfellow, cricketers David Gower and Darren Gough, Olympic rower James Cracknell and F1 boss Sir Frank Williams.[126] Actor and television presenter Ross Kemp is also backing the No vote.
Religious figures
Also supporting the 'Yes' campaign are several senior Church of England bishops or former bishops:[why?] Bishop of Exeter, the Rt Rev Michael Langrish; former Bishop of Woolwich, the Rt Rev Colin Buchanan;[127] Bishop of St Albans, the Rt Rev Alan Smith; Bishop of Ripon and Leeds, the Rt Rev John Packer; Bishop of Beverley, the Rt Rev Martyn Jarrett; Bishop of St Edmundsbury and Ipswich, the Rt Rev Nigel Stock; Bishop of Buckingham, the Rt Rev Alan Wilson; Bishop of Gloucester, the Rt Rev Michael Perham; former Bishop of Derby, the Rt Rev Peter Dawes; and former Bishop of Thetford, the Rt Rev David Atkinson.[128]
Jonathan Bartley (founder and co-director of the Ekklesia religious thinktank)[80] supported the referendum.
Others
Anti-corruption campaigner, former broadcaster and independent MP, Martin Bell supports AV.[66] A group of leading women businessmen and campaigners published a letter in The Guardian backing a Yes vote on 28 April 2011, with signatories including Alexandra Shulman (editor of Vogue), illustrator Daisy de Villenueve, writer Gillian Slovo, human rights lawyer Helena Kennedy, Hilary Wainwright (editor of Red Pepper), journalist Isabel Hilton OBE, Professor Jacqueline Rose, writer Jay Griffiths, broadcaster Joan Bakewell, Rabbi Julia Neuberger, fashion designer Patsy Puttnam, journalist Polly Toynbee, Professor Janet Todd (President of Lucy Cavendish College, Cambridge), Chair of Young Labour Susan Nash, activist Tamsin Omond, financial consultant Tessa Tennant, fashion designer Vivienne Westwood, gynaecologist/campaigner Dr Wendy Savage and journalist Yasmin Alibhai-Brown.[129]
Campaign donors and spending
By around the beginning of May, the Yes campaign had spent £3.4 million compared to £2.6 million by the No campaign.[130]
The Yes campaign revealed that they had raised £2 million (as of 15 February 2011), with 95% coming from two donors, the Electoral Reform Society and the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust. The Yes campaign also received five-figures sums from Alan Parker, who is close to both Gordon Brown and David Cameron, and Paul Marhsall, a donor to the Liberal Democrats.[130]
The No campaign initially refused to publish details of their donors,[131] but subsequently said on 18 February 2011 they would do so before the referendum date.[132] However, they had not done so by 28 March 2011 when the Yes campaign published an updated list of all donors of over £7,500 and launched a petition calling on the No campaign to do the same.[133]
The No campaign released a list of donors on 9 April 2011, which included several major donors to the Conservative Party, including Lord (John) Sainsbury, Michael Farmer, Lord Harris, Lord Fink[40] and Lord Edmiston.[134] In total, the No campaign had raised by that date £1.8m in donations of over the declarable limit of £7,500 from 41 donors, with the largest being from philanthropist Peter Cruddas, founder of the CMC spread betting firm, who gave £400,000.[40]
The Guardian newspaper identified 42 of the 53 named donors to the No campaign as donors to the Conservative party, while one, the GMB union, is a donor to the Labour party, and nine were not identified in official donor records. The remaining donor is official funding from the electoral commission. The donors include seven Conservative peers. They quote Margaret Beckett, a leading Labour No campaigner, as saying this situation is a "necessary evil".[130]
While the Yes campaign has released figures of all donations over the declarable limit since it was set up, the No campaign has not declared any donations prior to the referendum bill receiving Royal Assent, as they are not required to do under the relevant regulations. David Blunkett, a No campaigner, has called on the No campaign to do so.[130]
Campaign
The initial part of the campaign was overshadowed by continuing Parliamentary battles over the introducing Bill, which had threatened to delay the referendum date.[135] Launching their campaing supporters of AV argued that the need for candidates to campaign for later preferences will encourage candidates to appeal to a broader cross-section of the electorate. They have also pointed out the declining number of people voting for the main two parties in the UK over recent decades.[32]
Party politics
The Yes campaign have sought to present their campaign as being on behalf of members of the public. The No campaign have sought to play on the unpopularity of the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg, and to present the referendum as an opportunity to punish Clegg at the polls. They also claim that Clegg described AV as "a miserable little compromise" before the 2010 general election. The fuller quote says "I am not going to settle for a miserable little compromise thrashed out by the Labour party" and Clegg later explained he was talking about negotiations between the two parties.[136] However, the Conservatives rejected the possiblity of introducing PR in coalition negotiations, leading to a referendum in which the choice is between FPTP and AV.
While officially supporting a No vote, the Conservative Party leadership reportedly initially held back on campaigning and advised major Conservative Party donors not to bother donating to the No campaign. However, this position changed in January 2011 and the leadership became more involved, with requests to donors to fund the No campaign and staff and party headquarters becoming directly involved in campaigning.[137]
In mid-February, the Prime Minister David Cameron and the Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg made opposing speeches advocating a 'No' and 'Yes' result respectively. Clegg argued that AV would mean "fairer votes" and that FPTP produced more safe seats, and linked these to the MPs' expenses scandal. He said that AV would encourage politicians to work to appeal to more of the electorate rather than just their core supporters.[138] He stated that "I think this [AV] is a natural evolution which reflects the fact that politics is no longer now, as it was 50 years ago when everybody was very happy to plump for the blue corner or the red corner, people want more choice now."
Cameron, in contrast, argued that FPTP delivers more accountability and claimed it reduces the number of hung results in Parliament. He insisted that "When it comes to our democracy, Britain shouldn't have to settle for anyone's second choice.[139] Despite the coalition parties being on different sides in the campaign, Cameron has said that "whatever the result", the coalition will continue.[140]
Caroline Lucas, head of the Green Party of England and Wales said in support of AV "They can vote for what they believe in and I think that will be very liberating for a lot of people".[141]
Row over possible costs
The No campaign launched with a claim that choosing AV would cost £250 million.[142] However, this figure was criticised on several grounds. For example, it includes an estimated £82 million for holding the referendum, that applies whatever the referendum outcome. The £250 million figure also includes £130 million[143] for the cost of electronic voting systems, although these are not used by the largest current country using AV, Australia,[32][131][144]. The Electoral Commission has stated that it has not made plans to use such machines, but vote counting machines were introduced when London and Scotland introduced multi-round preferential ballost (SV and STV respectively).[145]
Labour MP Douglas Alexander described the figure claimed as a "lie".[32] A Channel 4 News Fact Check concluded that the specific claim that AV will require electronic counting machines, the main component of the £250 million figure, was "fiction".[146] Dr Alan Renwick likewise dismissed the suggestion that voting machines will be required, saying "The No camp [...] say that AV would require expensive voting machines. [...] that is just plain false."[147]
Danny Alexander, the Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury and a supporter of AV himself, said in a leaked letter that, "The Government has no plans to reopen departmental spending review settlements as a consequence of a Yes vote in the referendum on AV." He also told the Independent on Sunday newspaper that, "I don't expect to see any increase in the cost of holding a general election if the British people vote yes. There's no good reason to believe that even under a new voting system an election would need to be more expensive."[148]. The Prime Minister and Chancellor, however, have both stated that AV will increase the cost of elections and lead to the use of electronic counting machines.
The No campaign launched a series of adverts in regional newspapers based on the £250 million figure. The Yes campaign described these as "shameful", a "smear" and "lies", and complained to the Electoral Commission and Advertising Standards Authority, both of whom said they did not have powers to regulate individual adverts in the campaign.[145]
On 5th May, David Blunkett, one of the Labour Party former-government ministers that had supported the No Campaign, said that he has not used the £250 million figure used by the No Campaign.[149]
Coalition and minority governments
Supporters of a No vote claimed that AV will lead to more coalition governments, but models of recent UK elections suggest that this may not be the case,[32][150] The BBC had modelled the possible effect of AV on every general election since 1983 and conclude that the overall result would not have changed in any of them.[151] Paddy Ashdown pointed out that Australia has had fewer hung Parliaments under AV than the UK has under FPTP. The report of the Independent Commission on the Voting System, issued in 1998, stated that "There is not the slightest reason to think that AV would reduce the stability of government; it might indeed lead to larger parliamentary majorities."[152]
During the referendum campaign a BBC Newsnight special on the referendum suggested that AV would lead to a small increase in the number of hung results[32] and Dr Alan Renwick, author of A Citizen's Guide To Electoral Reform, wrote in Total Politics magazine that "AV makes election results more volatile, exaggerating landslides on the one hand and making coalitions more common on the other."[153] However, Professor Dennis Leech of Warwick University has argued that coalitions will not be any more likely under AV.[154][155] Professor Vernon Bogdanor has stated that:
AV would probably make little difference in most general elections. ...By helping the Lib Dems – the second choice of many voters – AV makes hung parliaments more likely. But the effect would probably not be very great. AV would not have transformed the result in any of the twelve postwar elections that yielded large working majorities. But the parliaments of 1951 and 1992 might have been hung, and AV might have given Labour a working majority in the indecisive elections of 1950, 1964, and February and October 1974.[156]
Channel 4 News FactCheck summarises the position as follows:
AV would not lead to permanent hung parliaments and coalition governments. The best academic research we have suggests that AV wouldn’t make big landslides a thing of the past, and nor would it make hung Parliaments more likely ..hung parliaments are indeed more likely in the future. But that will be the case under both AV and FPTP.[157]
"One person, one vote"
The No campaign have argued that some people get multiple votes,[32] and that the system is contrary to the principle of "one person, one vote" (which they have adopted as a slogan of their campaign) despite AV being based on the concept of a "single transferable vote". Seeking to clarify various "facts and fallacies" of the AV system, the Ipsos MORI Guide to AV states that
contrary to the arguments of some opponents of AV, this system [AV] does not involve some people getting more votes than others. Every voter gets just one vote, which is counted several times. Your second preference is not a second vote, it is an instruction about how you want your (only) vote to be used if it would be wasted because your first choice candidate can't win. Each vote is counted in each round of voting[150]
The FullFact site similarly criticised No campaigners, saying, "some of these claims have trod a fine line between accuracy and error."[158] Professor Vernon Bogdanor, a political scientist at King's College London, has stated that "the no campaign's claim that AV gives some voters two votes" is "absurd". He continues, "if I ask you to buy me a Mars but a Mars is not available and I suggest you buy a Twix instead, I will not receive two bars of chocolate. A transferred vote is not a multiple vote."[159] Dr Alan Renwick, an electoral systems specialist at Reading University, made similar comments:
The No camp asserts that the Alternative Vote (AV) system gives extra votes to supporters of fringe parties. This is simply untrue.
In each round of counting under AV, every voter has one vote and one vote only.[147]
Channel Four News Factcheck states:
AV does not give people extra votes. The system sticks to the principle of “one person, one vote”.
Every voter would be treated equally with each vote only counting once in deciding who is elected in each constituency.[157]
The argument that the alternative vote is contrary to the principle of "one person, one vote" was addressed and rejected by a Michigan court in 1975. In Stephenson v. the Ann Arbor Board of City Canvassers, the court held "majority preferential voting" (another name for AV) to be in compliance with the Michigan and United States constitutions, writing:
Under the MPV system, however, no one person or voter has more than one effective vote for one office. No voter's vote can be counted more than once for the same candidate. In the final analysis, no voter is given greater weight in his or her vote over the vote of another voter, although to understand this does require a conceptual understanding of how the effect of a MPV system is like that of a run-off election. The form of majority preferential voting employed in the City of Ann Arbor's election of its Mayor does not violate the one-man, one-vote mandate nor does it deprive anyone of equal protection rights under the Michigan or United States Constitutions.
— [160]
Safe seats
The Yes campaign argued that AV would be fairer, and that it would reduce the number of 'safe seats', making MPs work harder, but this has been contested by the No campaign, again with reference to Australia.[161] This view is supported by Dr Alan Renwick, who stated that "AV wouldn't significantly change the number of safe seats. Even the claim that AV would make a big dent in the number of safe seats goes further than the facts support."[153] However, the new economics foundation think-tank, which supports a Yes vote, published modelling showing that with the introduction of AV the number of very marginal seats would increase from 81 to 125, and the number of very safe seats would decrease from 331 to 271, although there would also be an increase in the number of fairly safe seats.[162] The report found that, with FPTP, the average number of seats changing hands per election was 13% and this could rise to 16% under AV, modestly increasing voter power overall, but concluded "that neither system is very good at translating votes into electoral power."[163][164]
Majority support for MPs
The Yes campaign argue that AV ensures that every MP is supported by an overall majority (more than 50% of the voters). In its Guide to AV, Mori-Ipsos states "this is not really true, but maybe it’s a defensible simplification". AV ensures that a candidate is elected with the support of 50% of voters who have expressed a preference between the final two candidates in the contest. If some voters have indicated that they are indifferent between the final two, by not ranking either of them on the ballot paper, then the winner may be elected with the support of less than 50% of all votes cast.
Professors Rawlings and Thrasher state that "the claims that AV will guarantee local majority support can only be validated if every voter is compelled or chooses to cast a full range of preferences. There seems little prospect of that happening in a general election conducted under AV in the UK."[165][150] Channel Four FactCheck states that it "is right that candidates will have to aim for 50% of votes, though it is true that some candidates will end up being elected on fewer than 50% of all the votes cast."[157]
In the most recent general election roughly two-thirds of MPs were elected with less than an overall majority. Rawlings and Thrasher predict that under AV this would be reduced to around 40% of MPs. Ipsos Mori state "It is certainly true that in many constituencies ..MPs elected under AV will have the support of a higher proportion of voters than they did under FPTP".
Existing use of voting systems in the UK and abroad
The No campaign have argued that only three countries in the world use AV: three nations use AV for general elections to their national legislature, Australia, Papua New Guinea and Fiji. However AV is also used internationally for many other forms of election. It is used for Irish presidential elections and for by-elections in the Republic of Ireland, and in some local elections in New Zealand. In the United Kingdom, AV is used by MPs to elect the chairs of select committees, the Speaker of the House of Lords and the Deputy Speaker of the House of Commons. AV is also used in by-elections to select hereditary peers for the House of Lords.
A variant of AV called the supplementary vote is used to elect the Mayor of London and of other UK cities. A related system called the exhaustive ballot is used to elect the Speaker of the House of Commons. AV is used for various elections in the United states (see AV in the United States).
AV is used by many private organisations in the UK, for example in the leadership elections of the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats, while the leadership elections for the Conservative party use the related exhaustive ballot. AV is also used by the Royal British Legion, and in certain trade unions and student unions.[32] In the US, AV is now used to decide the winner of the Oscar for Best Picture.[166]
A method similar to AV, called the two round system, is widely used internationally. For example it is used to elect the National Assembly of France and the Presidents of eighty nations.[167] It is also used to elect governors and mayors in many US states[citation needed]. The United States also uses primaries, followed by a second round, for the President, House of Representatives and the Senate.
PR-STV is another related system. It uses a preferential ballot like AV but is used for elections in multi-seat constituencies. It is used for national elections in the Republic of Ireland, Australia and Malta. And for other purposes in many other nations.
The No campaign stress that FPTP is used in over fifty countries, with a combined population of approximately 2.4 billion people.[168] FPTP is used for legislature elections in the United States, India and Canada, as well as other non-G20 nations. It is used for Presidential elections in twenty countries, and for various forms of election in 45 others.[167]
Proportional representation
Some opponents of AV see it as a stepping stone towards, for them unwanted, proportional representation, while some supporters of proportional representation contradictorily see the referendum as a lost opportunity that will delay a move to proportional representation. Both positions have been described as "entirely speculative".[150] An Evening Standard editorial described the result of a 'No' win: "the issue of electoral reform will be shelved for a generation."[169] Whereas Dr Thomas Lundberg, an electoral systems specialist at Glasgow University, wrote in a Political Studies Association paper: "Anything that reduces the ability of small parties to win seats – a process that has been going on since the 1970s at British general elections – could be detrimental to the prospect of a PR transition. Because AV raises the threshold to victory to 50 per cent plus one vote, small parties, which often win seats on low vote shares, might be threatened unless they can win significant numbers of transfers from voters who prefer other parties."[170]
Tactical voting
Tactical voting means that a voter supports a candidate other than his or her sincere preference, in order to prevent an undesirable outcome. No meaningful voting systems can eliminate tactical voting (under the Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem) and situations in which AV is susceptible to tactical voting can be demonstrated.[150] The Yes to AV campaign argues that under AV such scenarios are rare[171] or theoretical.[155] The independent market research group Ipsos MORI has published a guide to AV.[172] This states that the scenario in which tactical voting might influence the outcome of an AV election "is very easy to demonstrate in the case of AV and is unlikely to be especially rare", but "it is true that tactical voting will probably be less under AV."
AV is more resistant to tactical voting than "first past the post" (FPTP), partly because it meets the independence of clones and mutual majority criteria; FPTP does not meet these criteria. The use of preferences under AV has been described as "tactical voting" in itself;[32] AV supporters argue that the ranked ballot is a desirable feature of the system, and point out that a sincere ranking of preferences cannot be tactical voting by definition.
AV and the BNP
The far-right British National Party (BNP) support a No vote in the referendum. Nonetheless, the No campaign argued that AV would benefit far-right parties like the BNP and National Front. For example, Baroness Warsi described AV as "a system which rewards extremism and gives oxygen to extremist groups". In response, the Yes campaign launched advertising with the slogan, "Say No to the BNP, Say Yes on 5th May" pointing out the BNP's opposition to AV. The Channel 4 News FactCheck concluded the Yes campaign were correct, saying:
AV is highly unlikely to help the BNP win any seats, and the secondary votes of BNP supporters alone wouldn’t swing a seat for any other party – going on last year’s results. In fact, in a very divided constituency, the BNP arguably has a better chance of winning a seat under First Past the Post than under AV.
They go on to quote the BNP deputy chairman Simon Darby, who said: "AV is a retrograde step – it's worse than what we've got now[.] We are never going to get our feet under the table under the AV system."[173] The No2AV-Yes2PR campaign website countered that "AV does confer a subtle benefit on extremists like the BNP: increased legitimacy. AV enables people to cast ‘free’ protest vote safe in the knowledge that they can they cast a second preference for the party they actually want."[174]
Professor Dennis Leech of Warwick University has argued that extremists like the BNP are more likely to win under FPTP, but he has also argued against the notion that AV automatically favours centrists:
while AV prevents the kind of undemocratic result that often occurs under FPTP, and always ensures that the winning candidate has at least some kind of majority support, it has nothing to do with proportional representation. It does not follow that centrist or compromise candidates such as the LibDems will be more likely to win – only that the least popular cannot win. A centrist candidate such as a LibDem will still need enough first preference votes to stand a chance.[154]
Final weeks
The final weeks of the campaign were marked by an increased rancour, with a battle of words between members of the Coalition Government.[175] For example, Liberal Democrat energy secretary Chris Huhne threatened legal action over "untruths" that he claimed were told by Conservative Chancellor George Osborne that new voting machines would be required by AV, despite these not being used in Australian elections under AV[175] and no plans to introduce them. The No campaign countered, quoting a senior returning officer (Anthony Mayer), that voting machines would be essential with AV if results are desired as quickly as today, rather than counting over the weekend after a general election.[176] See the Row over possible costs section for a fuller discussion.
Huhne was reported to have strongly criticised Conservative colleagues at a Cabinet meeting in early May 2011 for the No campaign's material. However, one of the key No campaign leaflets he targeted, showing showing a newborn baby with the slogan "She needs a maternity unit, not an alternative voting system", was developed by Dan Hodges, a Labour Party campaigner working for NO2AV.[177]
Leading members of the Labour Party on different sides of the campaign also stepped up to campaign for the votes of Labour supporters,[178] including a major newspaper interview with Peter Mandelson in which he called for a Yes vote and a major advertising campaign by the Labour Yes to Fairer Votes group, both arguing that Labour voters should vote Yes because of Conservative support for a No result. However, the No campaign responded by pointing out that a majority of Labour MPs oppose AV (130 out of 255 opposing AV, 86 in support).[179] In the last week a grassroots campaign featuring Reform Cat in the youtube video "Is your Cat confused about the referendum on the voting system on the 5th May?" which was released on the 27th April 2011, [180] gained more views than either official campaign videos
Polling
Polling organisation |
Poll was taken on behalf of |
Was actual referendum question used? |
Survey end date |
AV (%) |
FPTP (%) |
Would not vote (%) |
Don't know (%) |
Ref | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ComRes | Independent on Sunday | N | 2010-05-13 | 59 | 32 | n/a | 10 | [181] | |
ICM | Sunday Telegraph | N | 2010-05-13 | 56 | 35 | n/a | 9 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-06-14 | 44 | 34 | 5 | 17 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-06-28 | 42 | 34 | 5 | 18 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-07-05 | 45 | 32 | 6 | 17 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-07-19 | 39 | 38 | 7 | 17 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-08-02 | 41 | 36 | 5 | 18 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-08-16 | 37 | 38 | 7 | 18 | [181] | |
ICM | Guardian | N | 2010-08-16 | 45 | 45 | n/a | 10 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-08-31 | 37 | 39 | 5 | 18 | [181] | |
YouGov | Constitution Society | N | 2010-09-01 | 32 | 33 | 8 | 28 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-09-06 | 35 | 39 | 8 | 18 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-09-20 | 36 | 39 | 8 | 17 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-10-04 | 35 | 40 | 7 | 18 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-10-18 | 33 | 41 | 6 | 19 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-11-01 | 32 | 43 | 8 | 17 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-11-15 | 33 | 40 | 7 | 20 | [181] | |
ICM | Yes to fairer votes | Y | 2010-11-28 | 48 | 35 | n/a | 17 | [181] | |
ICM | ERS | Y | 2010-11-28 | 35 | 22 | 9 | 35 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-11-29 | 35 | 41 | 7 | 17 | [181] | |
ICM | Guardian | Y | 2010-12-03 | 44 | 38 | n/a | 18 | [181] | |
ICM | ERS | Y | 2010-12-03 | 36 | 30 | n/a | 34 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2010-12-13 | 33 | 39 | 7 | 21 | [181] | |
YouGov | N | 2010-12-14 | 32 | 40 | 9 | 19 | [181] | ||
Angus Reid | Y | 2011-01-07 | 37 | 20 | 6 | 37 | [181] | ||
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-01-10 | 32 | 41 | 8 | 18 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-01-24 | 32 | 41 | 7 | 20 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-02-07 | 38 | 39 | 7 | 16 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-02-08 | 37 | 38 | 6 | 18 | [181] | |
ComRes | Independent on Sunday | Y | 2011-02-10 | 40 | 30 | n/a | 30 | [181] | |
ComRes | Independent on Sunday | N | 2011-02-10 | 40 | 30 | n/a | 30 | [181] | |
ComRes | Newsnight | N | 2011-02-13 | 41 | 41 | n/a | 18 | [181] | |
Populus | Times | N | 2011-02-13 | 41 | 29 | n/a | 30 | [181] | |
Populus | Times | N | 2011-02-13 | 29 | 43 | 9 | 20 | [181] | |
Angus Reid | Y | 2011-02-16 | 37 | 22 | 6 | 35 | [181] | ||
ICM | Guardian | Y | 2011-02-20 | 37 | 37 | n/a | 27 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-02-21 | 34 | 41 | 7 | 18 | [181] | |
YouGov | No2AV | N | 2011-02-28 | 32 | 43 | 7 | 17 | [181] | |
YouGov | No2AV | Y | 2011-03-01 | 33 | 30 | 6 | 30 | [181] | |
Angus Reid | Y | 2011-03-04 | 32 | 26 | 7 | 35 | [181] | ||
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-03-07 | 30 | 47 | 8 | 15 | [181] | |
ComRes | Independent on Sunday | Y | 2011-03-10 | 34 | 37 | n/a | 28 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sky News | Y | 2011-03-10 | 37 | 32 | 7 | 24 | [181] | |
Harris | Metro | Y | 2011-03-11 | 31 | 32 | n/a | 37 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sunday Times | Y | 2011-03-18 | 39 | 37 | 1 | 23 | [181] | |
Angus Reid | Y | 2011-03-21 | 29 | 28 | 7 | 35 | [181] | ||
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-03-21 | 32 | 44 | 7 | 17 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-03-28 | 32 | 44 | 6 | 18 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-03-30 | 31 | 44 | 7 | 18 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sunday Times | Y | 2011-04-01 | 40 | 37 | 1 | 22 | [181] | |
Populus | Times | N | 2011-04-03 | 33 | 37 | n/a | 30 | [181] | |
Populus | Times | N | 2011-04-03 | 29 | 46 | 8 | 17 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-04-04 | 34 | 42 | 7 | 17 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sunday Times | Y | 2011-04-08 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 22 | [181] | |
Angus Reid | Y | 2011-04-11 | 32 | 28 | 8 | 32 | [181] | ||
YouGov | Sun | N | 2011-04-11 | 33 | 45 | 6 | 15 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | Y | 2011-04-12 | 37 | 44 | 0 | 19 | [181] | |
ComRes | Independent on Sunday | Y | 2011-04-15 | 37 | 43 | n/a | 21 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sunday Times | Y | 2011-04-15 | 40 | 41 | 1 | 17 | [181] | |
ICM | Guardian | Y | 2011-04-17 | 42 | 58 | n/a | n/a | [181] | Includes Northern Ireland |
TNS-BMRB | Independent | Y | 2011-04-18 | 32 | 34 | 13 | 20 | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | Y | 2011-04-19 | 42 | 58 | n/a | n/a | [181] | |
Angus Reid | Y | 2011-04-21 | 42 | 58 | n/a | n/a | [181] | ||
ICD | New Statesman | Y | 2011-04-25 | 39 | 53 | n/a | 9 | [181] | |
ComRes | No2AV | Y | 2011-04-25 | 40 | 60 | n/a | n/a | [181] | |
YouGov | Sun | Y | 2011-04-26 | 41 | 59 | n/a | n/a | [181] | |
YouGov | Sunday Times | Y | 2011-04-29 | 45 | 55 | n/a | n/a | [181] | |
ComRes | Independent | Y | 2011-05-01 | 34 | 66 | n/a | n/a | [181] | |
ICM | Guardian | Y | 2011-05-03 | 32 | 68 | n/a | n/a | [182] | |
YouGov | Sun | Y | 2011-05-04 | 40 | 60 | n/a | n/a | [183] | |
Angus Reid | Y | 2011-05-04 | 39 | 61 | n/a | n/a | [184] |
Proposed AV system
System
Under the alternative vote system proposed in the referendum, voters will still be electing just one candidate associated with one geographic constituency. Instead of simply voting for one candidate on the ballot paper (with an 'X'), the voter would instead rank one or more of the candidates in order of preference. If after first preferences have been counted, no one candidate has a majority of the votes cast, then the bottom candidate will be eliminated and votes for that candidate are transferred to each voter's next available preference. The process continues repeatedly until one candidate reaches a majority and wins.[26][185]
Ballot instructions
Schedule 6 of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill proposes to amend Paragraph 5 of Rule 29 of Schedule 1 of the Representation of the People Act 1983, so that the instructions to the voter displayed in ballot boxes would be changed from an instruction to vote for only one candidate, to read:[27]
"Remember—use 1, 2, 3 etc at this election—this is an election using the alternative vote system. Put the number 1 next to the name of the candidate who is your first choice (or your only choice, if you want to vote for only one candidate). You can also put the number 2 next to your second choice, 3 next to your third choice, and so on. You can mark as few or as many choices (up to the number of candidates) as you wish. Do not use the same number more than once. Put no other mark on the ballot paper, or your vote may not be counted."
The referendum will ask voters:
At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?
Result
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/52/United_Kingdom_AV_referendum_area_results.svg/300px-United_Kingdom_AV_referendum_area_results.svg.png)
According to the Electoral Commission, the votes will be first of all counted in 440 local counting areas across the United Kingdom before the results from the local counts (expect for Northern Ireland) are relayed to twelve regional counting areas where those results will be officially announced by the Regional Counting Officers. Scotland and Wales are each classed as one regional counting area and so votes in those areas will be counted and declared locally within Scottish Parliamentry and Welsh Assembly constituency boundaries before the results are declared nationally. Northern Ireland is also classed as a single regional counting area however all votes in this area will be counted and declared nationally as one unit. In England the votes will be counted and declared locally at district council level to which those results will be carried over to the nine remaining regional counting regions before they declare their results. The national result for the whole United Kingdom will be announced at the Platinum Suite at the Exhibition Centre London (ExCel) by the The Chief Counting Officer (CCO), Jenny Watson after all the counting regions have declared their results late on Friday 6 May 2011.[186]
Results by regions
Region | Turnout | Yes vote | No vote |
---|---|---|---|
East Midlands | |||
East of England | |||
London | |||
North East England | |||
North West England | |||
Northern Ireland | |||
Scotland | |||
South East England | |||
South West England | |||
Wales | |||
West Midlands | |||
Yorkshire and the Humber |
See also
- Electoral systems in the United Kingdom
- Electoral reform in the United Kingdom
- AV in the United States
- Comparison of AV to other voting systems
References
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{{cite web}}
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- ^ a b "Greens to campaign for AV". Green Party of England and Wales. 13 September 2010.[dead link]
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- ^ "Under True Proportional Representation, the BNP Would Have 12 Seats".
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- ^ Democracy, yes! AV, no!", [[Solidarity (newspaper)|]]
- ^ a b c d e Colin Firth and Helena Bonham Carter back AV yes campaign, by Patrick Wintour, The Guardian, 15 February 2011
- ^ a b c "Labour Ex-Ministers To Fight Voting Reform". News.sky.com. Retrieved 3 January 2011.
- ^ Why the alternative vote gets my vote, Ed Miliband, The Guardian, 16 February 2011
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- ^ a b Salmond likely to say 'yes' to AV system, by Nick Eardley, The Scotsman, 20 February 2011
- ^ Labour figures back campaign to change voting system, BBC News, 8 December 2010
- ^ a b Labour MPs - are they Yes or No to AV? Yes - 78 No - 108, by Mark Ferguson, 10 February 2011
- ^ a b Kinnock joins Labour Yes campaign as it continues to build momentum, Labour Yes to Fairer Votes
- ^ Boost from the red benches as Peers say Yes, Labour Yes! to Fairer Votes
- ^ Labour Yes Endorsers, Labour Yes! to Fairer Votes
- ^ "Sally gets the vote, even if John doesn't", The Evening Standard, 23 Dec 2010, p. 16
- ^ Labour NotoAV campaign gains party heavyweights, by Mark Ferguson, LabourList
- ^ Ed Miliband warns against Nick Clegg becoming poster boy for AV, by Patrick Wintour, The Guardian, 25 February 2011
- ^ No to AV, Yes to PR, Letter, 10 March 2011
- ^ a b Campaigners against voting reform in Gove mistake, BBC News, 26 November 2010
- ^ a b No2AV campaign start 2011 with another gaffe, LeftFootForward, 5 Jan 2011
- ^ Huddersfield MP Barry Sheerman denies signing up for anti-alternative vote campaign, Barry Gibson, 31 Dec 2010
- ^ 'No' campaign’s apology to Co-op MP, Co-operative News, 28 Jan 2011
- ^ Electorial reform: vote for an alternative?, by Joanna Moorhead, The Guardian, 19 February 2011
- ^ "NO2AV". NO2AV. Retrieved 16 September 2010.
- ^ "Yes! To Fairer Votes". Yes! To Fairer Votes. Retrieved 18 April 2011.
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- ^ "Take Back Parliament". Take Back Parliament. Retrieved 6 August 2010.
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- ^ "Unlock Democracy". Unlock Democracy. 2 July 2010. Retrieved 6 August 2010.
- ^ Chorley, Matt (1 August 2010). "GMB joins Tory right in campaign against vote reform - UK Politics, UK". London: The Independent. Retrieved 6 August 2010.
- ^ Democracy by machines or morals? Why the AV referendum matters to the Left, by Neal Lawson, OurKingdom, 15 April 2011
- ^ "AV: The Only Option for 21st Century Conservatives?". ResPublica.
- ^ "The Alternative Vote – the system no‐one wants" (PDF). Policy Exchange. 2010-10.
{{cite web}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - ^ "Supporting the Case for Fairer Votes". Ekklesia.co.uk. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
- ^ Worst of Both Worlds: Why First Past the Post no longer works, by G Lodge & G Gottfried, IPPR, 4 Jan 2011
- ^ The Right Alternative? Assessing the case for the Alternative Vote, by Guy Lodge and Glenn Gottfried, IPPR, 18 April 2011
- ^ "ippr calls for wider referendum on voting reform". IPPR. 5 July 2010.
- ^ []http://www.yestofairervotes.org/blog/entry/academics-speak-out-for-fairer-votes/ Academics Speak Out for Fairer Votes
- ^ "Vote "Yes" to AV". Thom Brooks.
- ^ "Debate: Vote Yes on 05 May". Canvas.
- ^ "Leaning Towards AV". Ben Saunders.
- ^ Academics Attack AV, by Ian Dunt, politics.co.uk, 27 May 201
- ^ [2] AV Debate – A Reply to Patrick English: Sorry, No, David S. Moon, May 2011
- ^ Voting Power and Procedures, LSE, March 2011
- ^ "Yes! To Fairer Votes". Yes! To Fairer Votes. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
- ^ "Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust: Grants Awarded". Jrrt.org.uk. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
- ^ "Supporting Organisations". Yes! to Fairer Votes. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
- ^ http://www.re-constitution.org.uk/news/articles/90/
{{citation}}
: Missing or empty|title=
(help) - ^ "Alternative Vote: Loved by no one". The Guardian.
- ^ A vote that makes a difference, The Independent, 9 Jan 2011
- ^ "Alternative Vote: 'Yes vote is a 'No' to David Cameron". The Daily Mirror.
- ^ "UK should vote to reform its voting". The Financial Times.
- ^ AV to say NO, The Sun, 13 April 2011
- ^ "Constitutional reform in Britain - Yes or No?". The Economist. Retrieved 29 April 2011.
- ^ AV will guarantee David Cameron or Nick Clegg is a loser, by Kevin Maguire, Daily Mirror, 19 February 2011
- ^ To kick Clegg may be tempting, but winning AV is essential, by Polly Toynbee, The Guardian, 14 March 2011
- ^ AV referendum: Political foes share platforms, BBC News, 18 April 2011
- ^ "David Mitchell Twitter post". Twitter.com. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
- ^ "Eddie Izzard is saying YES!". Isupportav.co.uk. 21 December 2010. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
- ^ David Schneider supports the Alternative Vote, BBC News, 8 April 2011
- ^ Coogan backs Yes to AV - Aha!, PoliticsHome, 12 April 2011
- ^ Voting reform campaigners gear up for tough fight, The Independent, 9 Jan 2011
- ^ Lord Winston and Eddie Izzard on AV debate, BBC News, 3 April 2011
- ^ "Peter Stringfellow backs the "No to AV" campaign". Political Scrapbook. 13 April 2011. Retrieved 18 April 2011.
- ^ AV race in religion row, politics.co.uk, 1 Feb 2011
- ^ Alternative Vote backed by senior Church of England bishops, The Guardian, 1 Feb 2011
- ^ Our only chance to achieve fairer votes, The Guardian, 28 April 2011
- ^ a b c d No to AV campaign neutrality under spotlight over Tory party funding, The Guardian, by Polly Curtis & Julia Kollewe, 2 May 2011
- ^ a b No2Av campaigners refuse to publish donor details, Oliver Wright, The Independent, 15 February 2011
- ^ Rival AV campaigns pledge to disclose their donors before referendum day, by Patrick Wintour, The Guardian, 18 February 2011
- ^ Alternative Vote campaign publishes donor list, by Katie Ghose, Yes! to Fairer Votes, 28 March 2011
- ^ Inside the Yes and No AV referendum campaigns, by James Silver, 7 April 2011, BBC News
- ^ MPs Reject Lords' Change Over Voting Bill, Jon Craig, Sky News
- ^ Nick Clegg targeted as anti-AV campaign links him to broken promises, Toby Helm, The Independent, 5 February 2011
- ^ A 'yes' to voting reform could be death for Mr Cameron, by Iain Martin, Daily Mail, 26 March 2011
- ^ Votes referendum: Cameron and Clegg set out views, BBC News, 18 February 2011
- ^ Vote referendum: Clegg v Cameron, by Brian Wheeler, BBC News, 18 February 2011
- ^ AV referendum: Result will not end coalition - Cameron, BBC News, 17 April 2011
- ^ "Green leader Lucas says vote system change 'liberating'". Bbc.co.uk. 25 February 2011. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
- ^ "250 Million Reasons to Say no to AV" (PDF). Retrieved 12 March 2011.
- ^ "£250 million reasons to say NO: Why our country can't afford AV". Retrieved 20 April 2011.
- ^ NOtoAV campaign launched – with these guys in charge we're screwed, by Toby Young, The Telegraph, 16 February 2011
- ^ a b No to AV campaign reject rivals' 'scare stories' claim, BBC News, 24 February 2011
- ^ FactCheck: the AV campaign gets dirty, by Emma Thelwell, 25 February 2011
- ^ a b AV voting referendum: Alan Renwick's viewpoint, by Dr Alan Renwick, BBC News, 12 April 2011
- ^ Voting reform will not cause more cuts, Treasury insists, by Matt Chorley, The Independent on Sunday, 27 February 2011
- ^ "No Campaign used made up figures", says David Blunkett by Samira Shackle, New Statesman, 5 May 2011
- ^ a b c d e A Guide to the Alternative Vote, by Roger Mortimore, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute, February 2011
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- ^ "Report of the Independent Commission on the Voting System". Retrieved 25 May 2009.
- ^ a b "The Myths of the Alternative Vote" (article), Total Politics (February 2011), p. 19.
- ^ a b Two Cheers for AV, by Dennis Leech, Warwick University
- ^ a b Mathematicians weigh in on UK voting debate, by Jacob Aron, New Scientist, 27 April 2011
- ^ "AV Referendum: the Weapon of Choice"
- ^ a b c Channel 4 FactCheck Blog: AV Round-Up
- ^ AV Referendum: does backing a minor party give your vote "greater weight"?, by Owen Spottiswoode, FullFact.org, 18 March 2011
- ^ "AV referendum: The weapon of choice"
- ^ "Ann Arbor Law Suit". FairVote. Retrieved 10 May 2011.
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- ^ "The Voter Power Index" (report), New Economics Foundation, p. 9.
- ^ "The Voter Power Index" (report), New Economics Foundation, p. 16.
- ^ Vote reform would create more marginal seats, says study, by Andrew Grice, The Independent, 5 April 2011
- ^ "Suppose UK voters accept the Alternative Vote in the May referendum... but then don't use AV to signal multiple party preferences?". LSE Blogs. Retrieved 5 April 2011.
- ^ What Is The Alternative Voting System?, by David Connolly, Sky News Online, 19 February 2011
- ^ a b [3] "National voting systems by country"
- ^ No to AV: "Why Our Current System is Better than AV"
- ^ "To destroy Clegg, Ed must schmooze, not exclude, him", by Matthew d'Ancona, Evening Standard, 16 March 2011, p. 14
- ^ "Be Careful What You Wish For: Potential Problems for the Yes Side in the Alternative Vote Referendum, p9" (PDF). Political Studies Association. Retrieved 5 April 2011.
- ^ Australia: tactical voting almost unknown with AV, Labour Yes! to Fairer Votes, 16 February 2011
- ^ A guide to the Alternative Vote (Ipsos MORI)
- ^ FactCheck: Would AV help or hinder the BNP?, by Cathy Newman, Channel 4 News, 13 April 2010
- ^ Why Vote No?, No2AV-Yes2PR
- ^ a b AV referendum: Commission 'cannot investigate untruths', BBC News, 25 April 2011
- ^ Former GLA CEO Says: With AV No Choice But Electronic Counting (Press Release), Tuesday 26 APril, 2011
- ^ The real father of the "Sick Baby" posters, by Joe Murphy. Evening Standard, 4 May 2011
- ^ AV referendum: Bid for Labour swing voters, BBC News, 26 April 2011
- ^ 'Half of Labour MPs oppose voting reform' claims No to AV campaign as the battle heats up ahead of referendum, Daily Mail, 27 April 2011
- ^ YouTube video: "Is your Cat confused about the referendum on the voting system on the 5th May?"
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp UK Polling Report - AV Referendum polls
- ^ AV poll indicates crushing defeat for yes campaign, guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 4 May 2011 17.29 BST
- ^ YouGov / The Sun Survey Results Sample Size: 5725 GB Adults Fieldwork: 3rd - 4th May 2011, YouGov, Wednesday 4 May 2011
- ^ (05/04/11) - Britons Set to Retain First Past the Post System for General Elections, Angus Reid, Wednesday 4 May 2011
- ^ AV Explained, London: The Constitution Society
- ^ Referendum on the voting system for the UK Parliament, Electoral Commission, 3 April 2011
External links
- About My Vote: Referendum on the voting system used to elect MPs to the House of Commons (Electoral Commission's explanation of the referendum)
- Referendum on the voting system for the UK Parliament (Electoral Commission)
- Yes! to Fairer Votes Official website of the 'yes' campaign
- NO2AV Official website of the 'no' campaign