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2008 United States House of Representatives elections

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This article discusses only races that resulted in a seat's party switch in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2008 election. For complete list of the races in all districts, but without the commentary below, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2008 - complete list.
United States House of Representatives elections, 2008

← 2006 November 4, 2008 2010 →

All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 6 non-voting members
  Majority party Minority party
 
Leader Nancy Pelosi John Boehner
Party Democratic Republican
Leader's seat California-8th Ohio-8th
Last election 233 seats, 53.6% 202 seats, 46.4%
Seats before 236 (incl. 1 vacancy) 199
Seats won 257 178
Seat change +21 -21
Popular vote 65,241,408 52,184,380
Percentage 53.18% 42.53%
Swing -0.6% -2.24%

Results:
  Democratic hold
  Democratic pickup
  Republican hold
  Republican pickup

Speaker before election

Nancy Pelosi
Democratic

Elected Speaker

Nancy Pelosi
Democratic

The 2008 U.S. House of Representatives elections were held on November 4, 2008, to elect members to the United States House of Representatives to serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2011. All 435 voting seats, as well as all 6 non-voting seats, were up for election. The Democratic Party, which won a majority of seats in the 2006 election, expanded its control in 2008. The Republican Party, hoping to regain the majority it lost in the 2006 or at least expand its congressional membership, lost additional seats. With one exception (Louisiana's 2nd district), the only seats to switch from Democratic to Republican had been Republican-held prior to the 2006 elections. Republicans gained five Democratic seats total, while losing 26 Republican seats, giving the Democrats a net gain of 21. Turnout increased due to the 2008 presidential election. The presidential election, 2008 Senate elections, and 2008 state gubernatorial elections, as well as many other state and local elections, occurred on the same date.

Composition entering the election

At the end of the 110th Congress (2nd Session), the membership of the U.S. House of Representatives was composed of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, and one vacancy.

Special elections in 2008 for the 110th Congress

In 2008 there were eight special elections for vacant seats in the United States House of Representatives, for the 110th United States Congress. In the special elections, Democrats gained three seats while keeping hold on four seats. Republicans held of only one of their four seats.

Retiring incumbents

Thirty-one incumbents voluntarily chose to retire from the House.[1]

Democratic incumbents

  1. Alabama's 5th congressional district: Bud Cramer: "[T]o spend more time with my family and begin another chapter in my life"[2]
  2. Colorado's 2nd congressional district: Mark Udall: Ran for and won the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Wayne Allard.
  3. Maine's 1st congressional district: Tom Allen: Ran against and lost to Susan Collins in the U.S. Senate election.
  4. New Mexico's 3rd congressional district: Tom Udall: Ran for and won the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Pete Domenici.
  5. New York's 21st congressional district: Michael McNulty: "[I]t's not what I want to do for the rest of my life."[3]
  6. Oregon's 5th congressional district: Darlene Hooley: Because of the "cumulative effect of arduous travel, the relentless demands of fund-raising and 32 years of public service"[4]
Results of 2008 election in non-voting delegate races
  Democratic hold
  Democratic pickup
  Independent pickup

Republican incumbents

  1. Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Terry Everett: Because of age and health[5]
  2. Arizona's 1st congressional district: Rick Renzi: To fight federal criminal charges involving a land-swap deal[6]
  3. California's 4th congressional district: John Doolittle: To fight an FBI corruption investigation[7]
  4. California's 52nd congressional district: Duncan Hunter Ran for and lost the race for the Republican nomination for President
  5. Colorado's 6th congressional district: Tom Tancredo: Ran for and lost the race for the Republican nomination for President
  6. Florida's 15th congressional district: Dave Weldon: To return to his medical practice[8]
  7. Illinois's 11th congressional district: Jerry Weller: To spend more time with his family,[9] amid questions about his Nicaraguan land dealings, his wife's investments, and his relationship to an indicted defense contractor[10]
  8. Illinois's 18th congressional district: Ray LaHood (On December 19, 2008, President-elect Barack Obama announced his intention to nominate LaHood to serve as the next Secretary of Transportation.) He was later confirmed.
  9. Kentucky's 2nd congressional district: Ron Lewis
  10. Louisiana's 4th congressional district: Jim McCrery
  11. Minnesota's 3rd congressional district: Jim Ramstad
  12. Mississippi's 3rd congressional district: Chip Pickering
  13. Missouri's 9th congressional district: Kenny Hulshof: Ran for and lost the election for governor
  14. New Jersey's 3rd congressional district: Jim Saxton: Because of age and health[11]
  15. New Jersey's 7th congressional district: Mike Ferguson: To spend more time with his family[12]
  16. New Mexico's 1st congressional district: Heather Wilson: Ran in and lost the Republican primary for New Mexico's open U.S. Senate seat
  17. New Mexico's 2nd congressional district: Steve Pearce: Ran for and lost the election for New Mexico's open U.S. Senate seat
  18. New York's 13th congressional district: Vito Fossella: Amid scandal following a drunk driving arrest which led to revelations of infidelity and a secret family he maintained in Virginia
  19. New York's 25th congressional district: Jim Walsh
  20. New York's 26th congressional district: Tom Reynolds
  21. Ohio's 7th congressional district: Dave Hobson: "I wanted to go out on top" [13]
  22. Ohio's 15th congressional district: Deborah Pryce: To spend more time with her family[14]
  23. Ohio's 16th congressional district: Ralph Regula
  24. Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district: John Peterson: To spend more time with his family[15][16]
  25. Puerto Rico's at-large congressional district: Luis Fortuño: Ran for and won the Governorship of Puerto Rico defeating Gov. Aníbal Acevedo Vilá[17]
  26. Virginia's 11th congressional district: Thomas M. Davis: "It's time for me to take a sabbatical"[18]
  27. Wyoming's at-large congressional district: Barbara Cubin[19]

Defeated incumbents

Incumbents defeated in primary election

  1. Maryland's 1st congressional district: Wayne Gilchrest (R)
  2. Maryland's 4th congressional district: Albert Wynn (D) -subsequently resigned May 31, 2008
  3. Utah's 3rd congressional district: Chris Cannon (R)
  4. Tennessee's 1st congressional district: David Davis (R)

Incumbents defeated in general election

  1. Colorado's 4th congressional district: Marilyn Musgrave (R)
  2. Connecticut's 4th congressional district: Christopher Shays (R)
  3. Florida's 8th congressional district: Ric Keller (R)
  4. Florida's 16th congressional district: Tim Mahoney (D)
  5. Florida's 24th congressional district: Tom Feeney (R)
  6. Idaho's 1st congressional district: Bill Sali (R)[20]
  7. Kansas's 2nd congressional district: Nancy Boyda (D)
  8. Louisiana's 2nd congressional district: William J. Jefferson (D)
  9. Louisiana's 6th congressional district: Don Cazayoux (D)
  10. Michigan's 7th congressional district: Tim Walberg (R)
  11. Michigan's 9th congressional district: Joe Knollenberg (R)
  12. Nevada's 3rd congressional district: Jon Porter (R)
  13. New York's 29th congressional district: Randy Kuhl (R)
  14. North Carolina's 8th congressional district: Robin Hayes (R)
  15. Ohio's 1st congressional district: Steve Chabot (R)
  16. Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district: Phil English (R)
  17. Texas's 22nd congressional district: Nick Lampson (D)
  18. Virginia's 2nd congressional district: Thelma Drake (R)
  19. Virginia's 5th congressional district: Virgil Goode (R)

Open seat gains

  1. Alabama's 2nd congressional district (Democratic gain)
  2. Arizona's 1st congressional district (Democratic gain)
  3. Illinois's 11th congressional district (Democratic gain)
  4. Maryland's 1st congressional district (Democratic gain)
  5. New Jersey's 3rd congressional district (Democratic gain)
  6. New Mexico's 1st congressional district (Democratic gain)
  7. New Mexico's 2nd congressional district (Democratic gain)
  8. New York's 13th congressional district (Democratic gain)
  9. New York's 25th congressional district (Democratic gain)
  10. Ohio's 15th congressional district (Democratic gain)
  11. Ohio's 16th congressional district (Democratic gain)
  12. Puerto Rico's at-large congressional district (Democratic gain)
  13. Virginia's 11th congressional district (Democratic gain)

Predictions

Shortly after the November 2006 election, Scott Elliott of ElectionProjection.com said that the Democratic majority would be tough to beat - at most the GOP could take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority.[21]

On April 8, 2008, analyst Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report (who bills himself as non-partisan) stated that the fight for the House would be a "one-sided battle, with Democrats having most of the targets." He points to a list of one dozen seats (out of all 435 seats in the House) that are most likely to change hands, of those twelve, ten are open seats, seats which Republicans won by 3% or less in 2006 or otherwise endangered GOP seats.[22]

In May 2007, conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote that he believed there were at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008". He also said,

a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison. Republicans in Washington generally concede that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq by next November could mean disaster for the party.

Novak qualified this by saying that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election".[23]

InTrade.com, the only betting site currently offering odds on control of the House, puts the likelihood of the Democrats retaining control at about 90% as of October 2008.[24]

There have been three special elections for open Republican seats, IL-14 (formerly held by Dennis Hastert), LA-06 (formerly held by Richard Baker) and MS-01 (formerly held by Roger Wicker). Democrats won all three elections. After the MS-01 loss, Ron Gunzburger wrote, "GOP insiders in DC now privately acknowledge the Democratic victory in this seat likely foreshadows a dismal general election ahead for congressional Republicans."[25]

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)

District Incumbent Cook[26] Rothenberg[27] CQ Politics[28] Crystal Ball[29]
AL-2 (Everett) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Republican Hold
AL-3 Rogers (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
AL-5 (Cramer) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Hold
AK-AL Young (R) Tossup D Favored Leans D Democratic Pick-up
AZ-1 (Renzi) (R) Likely D D Favored Leans D Democratic Pick-up
AZ-3 Shadegg (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
AZ-5 Mitchell (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
AZ-8 Giffords (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
CA-3 Lungren (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Safe R
CA-4 (Doolittle) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
CA-11 McNerney (D) Leans D Leans D D Favored Democratic Hold
CA-26 Dreier (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
CA-45 Bono (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
CA-46 Rohrabacher (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Safe R
CA-50 Bilbray (R) Leans R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
CO-4 Musgrave (R) Tossup Leans D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
CT-2 Courtney (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
CT-4 Shays (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
CT-5 Murphy (D) Solid D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
FL-8 Keller (R) Tossup Leans D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
FL-13 Buchanan (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
FL-15 (Weldon) (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
FL-16 Mahoney (D) Likely R R Favored Leans R Republican Pick-up
FL-18 Ros-Lehtinen (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
FL-21 L. Diaz-Balart (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Republican Hold
FL-22 Klein (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
FL-24 Feeney (R) Leans D D Favored Leans D Democratic Pick-up
FL-25 M. Diaz-Balart (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Democratic Pick-up
GA-8 Marshall (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Democratic Hold
GA-12 Barrow (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
GA-13 Scott (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
ID-1 Sali (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
IL-6 Roskam (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
IL-8 Bean (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
IL-10 Kirk (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
IL-11 (Weller) (R) Leans D Leans D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
IL-13 Biggert (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
IL-14 Foster (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
IL-18 (LaHood) (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
IN-3 Souder (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
IN-8 Ellsworth (D) Solid D Limited Risk Safe D Democratic Hold
IN-9 Hill (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
IA-4 Latham (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
KS-2 Boyda (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Hold
KS-3 Moore (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
KY-2 (Lewis) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Republican Hold
KY-3 Yarmuth (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
LA-1 Scalise (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
LA-4 (McCrery) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Republican Hold
LA-6 Cazayoux (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Hold
LA-7 Boustany (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
ME-1 (Allen) (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
MD-1 (Gilchrest) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Republican Hold
MI-7 Walberg (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
MI-8 Rogers (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
MI-9 Knollenberg (R) Tossup Leans D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
MI-11 McCotter (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
MN-1 Walz (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
MN-2 Kline (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
MN-3 (Ramstad) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Republican Hold
MN-6 Bachmann (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
MS-1 Childers (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
MO-6 Graves (R) Leans R Limited Risk Leans R Republican Hold
MO-9 (Hulshof) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Republican Hold
NE-2 Terry (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans R Republican Hold
NV-2 Heller (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
NV-3 Porter (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NH-1 Shea-Porter (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Hold
NH-2 Hodes (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
NJ-3 (Saxton) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NJ-5 Garrett (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
NJ-7 (Ferguson) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NM-1 (Wilson) (R) Leans D Leans D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NM-2 (Pearce) (R) Tossup Leans D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NY-13 (Fossella) (R) Likely D D Favored D Favored Democratic Pick-up
NY-19 Hall (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
NY-20 Gillibrand (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
NY-24 Arcuri (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
NY-25 (Walsh) (R) Likely D D Favored D Favored Democratic Pick-up
NY-26 (Reynolds) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Republican Hold
NY-29 Kuhl (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
NC-5 Foxx (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
NC-8 Hayes (R) Tossup Leans D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NC-10 McHenry (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-1 Chabot (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
OH-2 Schmidt (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Republican Hold
OH-7 (Hobson) (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-12 Tiberi (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-14 LaTourette (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-15 (Pryce) (R) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
OH-16 (Regula) (R) Leans D D Favored Leans D Democratic Pick-up
OH-18 Space (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
OK-1 Sullivan (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
OK-4 Cole (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
OR-5 (Hooley) (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
PA-3 English (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
PA-4 Altmire (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
PA-5 (Peterson) (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
PA-6 Gerlach (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
PA-8 Murphy (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
PA-10 Carney (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Democratic Hold
PA-11 Kanjorski (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Republican Pick-up
PA-12 Murtha (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Democratic Hold
PA-15 Dent (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
PA-18 Murphy (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
SC-1 Brown (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Republican Hold
SC-2 Wilson (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
TX-7 Culberson (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
TX-10 McCaul (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
TX-22 Lampson (D) Tossup Leans R No Clear Favorite Republican Pick-up
TX-23 Rodriguez (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
VA-2 Drake (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Republican Hold
VA-5 Goode (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Republican Hold
VA-10 Wolf (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
VA-11 (Davis) (R) Likely D D Favored D Favored Democratic Pick-up
WA-8 Reichert (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
WV-2 Capito (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
WI-8 Kagen (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Democratic Hold
WY-AL (Cubin) (R) Leans R Leans R No Clear Favorite Republican Hold

Results

United States House of Representatives elections, 2008
Party Voting members[30][31] Non-voting members[32]
Votes Percentage Seats +/– Votes Percentage Seats +/–
Democratic[A] 65,241,408 53.18% 257 +21 1,952,133 94.34% 4 +1
Republican 52,184,380 42.53% 178 –21 1,919 0.09% 0 –1
Libertarian 1,083,027 0.88% 0 0 0 0
Independent[B][C] 947,661 0.77% 0 0 21,574 1.04% 2 +1
Green 570,729 0.47% 0 0 14,386 0.70% 0 0
Constitution 127,127 0.10% 0 0 0 0
Independence 129,747 0.13% 0 0 0 0
Working Families 12,104 0.01% 0 0 0 0
Independent Oregon 65,109 0.05% 0 0 0 0
Peace and Freedom 47,659 0.04% 0 0 0 0
Purple 28,541 0.03% 0 0 0 0
Conservative 26,182 0.02% 0 0 0 0
Independent American 22,813 0.02% 0 0 0 0
Reform 22,603 0.02% 0 0 0 0
Alaskan Independence 14,274 0.01% 0 0 0 0
Independent Green Populist 9,483 0.01% 0 0 0 0
Progressive 9,081 0.01% 0 0 0 0
Socialist Workers 8,588 0.01% 0 0 0 0
American Independent 6,274 0.01% 0 0 0 0
Vote People Change 3,708 0.00% 0 0 0 0
Unity 2,176 0.00% 0 0 0 0
Term Limits for the United States Congress 2,042 0.00% 0 0 0 0
Socialist 648 0.00% 0 0 0 0
Puerto Ricans for Puerto Rico 0 0 43,607 2.11% 0 0
Puerto Rican Independence 0 0 35,687 1.72% 0 0
Invalid or blank votes
Totals 122,959,841[33] 100.00% 435 2,069,306 100.00% 6 +1
Voter turnout

  3 net Democratic seat pickups
  1-2 net Democratic seat pickups
  1-2 net Republican seat pickups
A The number of non-voting members also includes the non-voting member-elect from Puerto Rico, Pedro Pierluisi, who is a member of the New Progressive Party of Puerto Rico, but will caucus with the Democrats. The New Progressive Party is affiliated with both the Democratic and Republican Parties and the last representative from Puerto Rico, Luis Fortuño, caucused with the Republicans. The vote total for the non-voting members also includes the Popular Democratic Party of Puerto Rico, which has ties to the Democratic Party.
B Both non-voting independents, American Samoa's representative Eni Faleomavaega and the Northern Mariana Islands' representative-elect Gregorio Sablan, will caucus with the Democrats. In America Samoa all elections are non-partisan.[34] In the Northern Mariana Islands, Sablan appeared on the ballot as an independent.[35]
C Write-in candidates are included with the vote totals.

Seats that changed party

Alabama

  • Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Terry Everett (R), 71, retired. The district covers southeastern Alabama, including Dothan and Montgomery. The Republican nominee, State Rep. Jay Love, defeated state Senator Harri Anne Smith in a bitter primary. The Democratic nominee was Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright. The district leans Republican — George W. Bush won 67% in 2004 here (CPVI=R+13). However, Bright had the advantage of representing the district's largest population center, as well as gaining the backing of Smith.[36] Bright won 50% of the vote to Love's 49%.

Arizona

  • Arizona's 1st congressional district: In August 2007, incumbent Rick Renzi (R) announced he would not seek re-election,[37] four months after the FBI raided Renzi's family business as part of a federal investigation. Renzi received only 52% of the vote against his Democratic opponent – Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon – in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona State district in 2004 (CPVI=R+2). State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick was the Democratic nominee. Public affairs consultant Sydney Ann Hay, who ran unsuccessfully in 2002, was the Republican nominee. Kirkpatrick won the seat with 56% of the vote.

Colorado

Connecticut

Florida

  • Florida's 16th congressional district: In this normally a Republican-leaning district, the consensus was that Tim Mahoney's 50% to 48% win in 2006 could be attributed to the Mark Foley scandal: the Republican nominee Joe Negron's campaign was harmed by the fact that Foley's name remained on the ballot even though he was not a candidate. Mahoney's reelection bid was damaged by revelations that he had at least two affairs, and was being investigated by the FBI for allegedly hiring one of his mistresses to keep her from discussing the affair [40]. Attorney and Army veteran Tom Rooney defeated state Representative Gayle Harrell and Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche for the Republican nomination. George W. Bush won this Central Florida district, with 54% in 2004 (CPVI=R+2). With memories of the Foley scandal still fresh, voters were in no mood to tolerate a scandal-tainted incumbent. Rooney won by 60% to 40%.
  • Florida's 24th congressional district: Tom Feeney (R) faced a challenging race in 2008 due to his ties with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff [41][42]. The district includes the Orlando suburbs as well as the Space Coast of Florida. Feeney was re-elected by 58% to 42%, less than expected especially considering that Feeney reportedly drew the district for himself while serving as speaker of the state house. Democrats recruited former State Rep. Suzanne Kosmas to challenge Feeney in 2008. George W. Bush won 55% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+3). Kosmas defeated Feeney 57% to 41%.

Idaho

  • Idaho's 1st congressional district: Conservative Republican Bill Sali won this open seat race with 49.9 percent of the vote in 2006, a mediocre showing in this heavily Republican district that gave Bush 68 percent in 2004 (CPVI=R+19). Also, as a member of the Idaho Legislature Sali caused considerable controversy by repeatedly citing a link between breast cancer and abortion without being able to provide evidence. Sali defeated Iraq War veteran Matt Salisbury in the March 27 primary.[43] Walt Minnick, an army veteran, Boise businessman, and the Democratic Idaho U.S. Senate nominee in 1996 was the Democratic nominee. The district consists of the western half of Idaho and includes part of the rapidly growing Boise area (where Democrats picked up five seats in the Idaho Legislature in 2006). Sali received negative press when he and members of his staff heckled Minnick during an interview.[44] Minnick narrowly defeated Sali by 51% to 49% in the general election, giving Idaho its first Democratic member of Congress since 1995.[45]

Illinois

Kansas

  • Kansas's 2nd congressional district: Nancy Boyda (D) narrowly upset Jim Ryun (R) in 2006. The district, which includes Topeka and Manhattan, gave Bush 58% to 40% in 2004 (CPVI=R+7), making her vulnerable, as Ryun was hurt by infighting between the moderate and conservative factions of the state GOP. Moderate state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R) was the Republican nominee, defeating Ryun 51% to 49%. In the general election, Jenkins won again, unseating Boyda by a 51% to 46% margin.

Louisiana

  • Louisiana's 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Democrat William J. Jefferson was indicted on 16 counts of corruption, complicating his re-election bid. In the Democratic primary, he placed first in a field of seven candidates finishing with 25% of the vote. Because no candidate received at least 50% of the vote, he faced the second place finisher, former TV anchor Helena Moreno,[50] who won 20% of the vote,[51] in a primary runoff on November 4, which Jefferson won.[52] The Republican nominee was Anh "Joseph" Cao.[53] The district includes nearly all of New Orleans and some of its suburbs, and is overwhelmingly Democratic: Barack Obama won 75% of the vote a month earlier. Because of Hurricane Gustav's effects, the state ruled that the primary runoff would be held on November 4 in place of the general election, with the general election moving to December 6.[54] In the December race, Cao surprised everyone when he overcame the Democratic nature of the district and defeated Jefferson by 50% to 47% in the biggest upset of the year[55]; high white turnout and low black turnout were seen as a critical factor in the upset.[56].
  • Louisiana's 6th congressional district: Democrat Don Cazayoux defeated Republican Woody Jenkins 49%–46% in a special election in order to succeed Republican Richard Baker. Given Cazayoux's narrow margin of victory and the Republican-leaning nature of this Baton Rouge based district (Bush won 59% here in 2004), it was expected that Cazayoux would be a GOP target as he ran for his first full term. The Republican nominee was State Senator Bill Cassidy. Democratic state representative Michael Jackson announced that he would run as an independent after Cazayoux defeated him in the primary.[57] Cazayoux's victory appeared to be a rejection of Jenkins, as Cassidy unseated him by 48% to 40%, with 12% going to Jackson.

Maryland

Michigan

  • Michigan's 9th congressional district: In January 2006, Joe Knollenberg (R) announced his intent to seek re-election in 2008. Knollenberg spent $2.7 million to keep his seat in the House.[64] Although his past Democratic opponents did not receive support from the national party, this time the seat was identified as a "target" for the Democrats in 2008,[65] as the DCCC targeted districts where Republicans garnered less than 55% of the vote.[66] Knollenberg, who was 75 in 2008, won only 52% of the vote in 2006 in this eastern Oakland County district that gave George W. Bush only 50% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+0) and is far from the Republican stronghold it once was. The district was once the most Republican in Metro Detroit, having sent Knollenberg's predecessor, Republican Bill Broomfield, to Congress for 36 years. The Democratic nominee was Michigan Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters, the 2002 Democratic nominee for state Attorney General and former State Senator.[67] Controversial and well known pathologist Dr. Jack Kevorkian announced he was running as an independent candidate.[68] Knollenberg lost the election to Peters, 52% to 43%.

Nevada

  • Nevada's 3rd congressional district: Republican Jon Porter won by only 48% to 46% in 2006 against a former aide to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and 54% in 2004. Porter faced another tough race in this suburban Las Vegas district. George W. Bush barely won this district with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=D+1). The leading Democratic candidate was Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas, but Daskas dropped out in late April, citing family concerns. After losing their top candidate, the Democratic Party quickly recruited Nevada Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, the 2006 nominee for governor. [69] Titus unseated Porter 48% to 42%.

New Jersey

  • New Jersey's 3rd congressional district: Incumbent Republican Jim Saxton announced that he would retire at the end of his current term.[70] This suburban Philadelphia district is historically Republican, but George W. Bush barely won with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=D+3). Also, Al Gore won his district by a significant margin in 2000. The Republican nominee was Medford Mayor, VP of Lockheed Martin, and Gulf War veteran Chris Myers. State Senator and 1990 Congressional candidate John Adler was the Democratic nominee. Adler faced an outsider disadvantage; his State Senate district's only city in the 3rd Congressional District was his home town of Cherry Hill. However, Adler defeated Myers 52% to 48%.

New Mexico

  • New Mexico's 2nd congressional district: Republican incumbent Steve Pearce won his party's nomination over Heather Wilson for the U.S. Senate (though he lost to another fellow Congressman, Democrat Tom Udall).[73] This district, covering roughly southeastern New Mexico, is usually Republican-voting, but Democrats sometimes won elections here. The Democratic nominee was Hobbs businessman, civic leader, and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. Bush won here with 58% to 42% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=R+6). The Republican nominee was restaurateur Ed Tinsley,[74]. Teague won 56% to 44%.

New York

  • New York's 13th congressional district: This Staten Island district was by far the most conservative part of New York City, but it still voted for Democrats in many elections. Republican incumbent Vito Fossella had won by solid margins since first being elected in a 1997 special election. But he was arrested on drunk driving charges,[75] which led to the revelation that he had an illegitimate child by a mistress.[76] On May 20, 2008, Fossella announced he would not seek another term, giving ample time for others to decide to run by the September primary.[77] Wall Street executive Francis H. Powers was a Republican candidate until he died on June 22, 2008. Staten Island City Councilman Mike McMahon was the Democratic nominee. Former Assemblyman Bob Straniere of New Dorp was the Republican nominee. McMahon won the seat 61% to 33%.
  • New York's 25th congressional district: Incumbent Jim Walsh (R) won by 51% to 49% in 2006 in this district that includes Syracuse. On January 23, 2008, The Politico reported that Walsh would not seek re-election.[78] Walsh's 2006 opponent, Dan Maffei (D) was once again the Democratic nominee.[79] Former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland, who Walsh endorsed, was the Republican nominee, with his major opponents leaving the race.[80] John Kerry won 53% here in 2004 (CPVI=D+3). Maffei was more successful in his second attempt to win the seat, defeating Sweetland 55% to 42%.

North Carolina

  • North Carolina's 8th congressional district: Republican Robin Hayes barely hung on in his 2006 re-election bid against Democrat Larry Kissell by a 329-vote margin. This seat likely was competitive again in 2008 because of Hayes' vote for CAFTA, which he first opposed but voted for because of pressure from House Republican leaders. Kissell again was the Democratic nominee. This Piedmont area district leans Republican: Bush won 54% here in 2004. Kissell was the winner this time, defeating Hayes 55% to 45%.

Ohio

  • Ohio's 1st congressional district: Republican Steve Chabot won by 52% to 48% in 2006, compared to 60% to 40% in 2004. His district barely went to George W. Bush with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 and includes the western portion of the Cincinnati area. State House Democratic Whip Steve Driehaus was the Democratic nominee. The district experienced another close race, with Driehaus defeating Chabot 51% to 49%.
  • Ohio's 15th congressional district: In 2006, Republican Deborah Pryce survived the toughest race of her career against Democratic Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy by 1,062 votes. Pryce did not run for re-election in 2008. Kilroy was again the Democratic nominee. Republican state Senator and Iraq War veteran Steve Stivers was the Republican nominee, winning his party's primary with 65%. George W. Bush barely won here in 2004 with 50.3% to 49.7% for John Kerry. This district, which includes much of Columbus and western suburbs, does not clearly favor either party. Kilroy defeated Stivers by a margin of over 2000 votes.[81]

Pennsylvania

  • Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district: Phil English (R) faced a tough challenge as he represented an Erie-based district that gave George W. Bush 53% of the vote and 47% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004. Also, in 2006, English received 54% of the vote against a newcomer with no political experience. Despite the presence of solidly Democratic Erie, the district historically had been friendly to moderate Republicans. Civic Leader, Erie Arboretum director, and businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper was the Democratic candidate. She defeated English 52% to 48%.

Texas

  • Texas's 22nd congressional district: This seat was vacated by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who resigned amid reports over his campaign finance activities. Democrat Nick Lampson won the general election, facing only a Libertarian and write-in opposition from Republicans. Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a dermatologist and former Houston City Councilwoman, won the special election held on the same day and in which Lampson did not run, and she served as a member of congress for almost two months before Lampson was sworn in. Lampson faced a difficult race in 2008, as he represented a heavily Republican constituency that voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry by a 2 to 1 (66% to 33%) margin (CPVI=R+15), more than any other district that fell to the Democrats in 2006. In an added development, Lampson had serious health problems, including recent quadruple heart bypass surgery. The district takes in several wealthy and conservative suburbs south of Houston, including Sugar Land, Pasadena, Pearland, and the Clear Lake area of Houston. This district also includes the NASA Johnson Space Center and Ellington Field. Lampson won the Democratic nomination. The Republican nominee was Pete Olson, who defeated Sekula-Gibbs in a primary runoff. Olson defeated Lampson 53% to 45%.

Virginia

  • Virginia's 5th congressional district: Originally elected as a Democrat in 1996, Virgil Goode had represented this district as a Republican since 2002. This year he faced Democrat Tom Perriello, who proved to be a good fundraiser. This district includes much of Southside Virginia. Except for Democratic-leaning Charlottesville, the district usually votes Republican; Bush won 56% here in 2004. As late as October, a poll by Survey USA showed Goode leading by 55% to 42%.[87] However, Perriello closed the gap and appeared to win by 646 votes on election day. Perriello claimed victory, but Goode decided to ask for a recount.[88] The totals as of November 22 show Perriello leading by 745 votes. [89] The recount completed on December 17, and Perriello was certified to have won the election by 727 votes. [90]
  • Virginia's 11th congressional district: Retiring Republican incumbent Tom Davis toppled one-term Democrat Leslie Byrne in 1994 and rarely faced serious opposition in subsequent years. However, his district, located in the wealthy Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC, has become increasingly Democratic over the years. It was a top Democratic target, given Davis's January 30, 2008, announcement that he will not seek re-election. George W. Bush barely won this district with 50% to 49% for John Kerry, which includes part of Fairfax and Prince William counties, in 2004. The Republican nominee was Keith Fimian, business magnate and former CPA, with personal wealth he is drawing upon.[91] The Democratic nominee was Gerry Connolly, Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. CQ Politics rates seat "leans Democratic". The Cook Political Report rated it "lean Democratic". The Rothenberg Political Report scored it "leans Democratic." Connolly won, 55%-43%.[92]

Northern Mariana Islands

Puerto Rico

See also

References

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