Early/Mid 2012 statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012

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This article is a collection of statewide polls for the United States presidential election, 2012. The polls listed here, by state are from January 1 to August 31, 2012 and provide early data on opinion polling between a possible Republican candidate against incumbent President Barack Obama.

Note: Some states had not conducted polling yet or no updated polls were present from January 1 to August 31, 2012

Obama vs. Romney
Obama vs. Gingirch
Obama vs. Santorum
Obama vs. Paul

AlabamaAlabama[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 62%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 60%–38%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Capital Survey Research Center August 13–16, 2012 Barack Obama 36% Mitt Romney 54% 18 452 RV ±4.6%
Capital Survey Research Center June 7, 18–19, 26–27, 2012 Barack Obama 36% Mitt Romney 51% 15 551 ±4.2%

ArizonaArizona[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 55%–44%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 52% 11 833 RV ±%
Rasmussen Reports June 26, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 54% 13 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling June 4–5, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 49% 3 791 ±3.5%
Public Policy Polling May 17 – May 20, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 50% 7 500 ±4.4%
Magellan Strategies April 30 – May 2, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 52% 9 909 ±3.25%
Behavior Research Center April 9–17, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 40% 2 511 ±4.4%
Arizona State University April 8–14, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 42% 2 488 ±4.4%
Rasmussen Reports March 13, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 51% 11 500 ±4.5%
44% Rick Santorum 45% 1
NBC News/Marist College February 19–20, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 45% 5 2,487 ±1.8%
Barack Obama 41% Ron Paul 43% 2
Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 40% 5
Barack Obama 42% Rick Santorum 45% 3
Public Policy Polling February 17–19, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 47% Tie 743 ±3.6%
Barack Obama 46% Ron Paul 42% 4
Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 44% 4
Barack Obama 46% Rick Santorum 47% 1
Behavior Research Center January 5–9, 2012 Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 43% 6 553 ±4.3%
Barack Obama 44% Ron Paul 36% 8
45% Newt Gingrich 35% 10
43% Rick Santorum 34% 9

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic  % Republican  % Libertarian  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 45% Gary Johnson 9% 4 500 ±4.4%

ArkansasArkansas[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–45%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–39%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Talk Business-Hendrix College March 26, 2012 Barack Obama 33% Mitt Romney 57% 24 759 ±3.6%

CaliforniaCalifornia[edit]

55 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
The Field Poll June 21 – July 2, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 37% 18 848LV ±3.4%
SurveyUSA May 27–29, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 36% 21 1,575 ±2.5%
Field May 21–29, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 32% 16 710 ±3.8%
Los Angeles Times May 17–21, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 37% 19 1,002 ±3.5%
PPIC May 14–20, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 39% 11 894 ±%
Survey USA March 29, 2012 – April 2, 2012 Barack Obama 62% Mitt Romney 31% 31 1,995 ±2.2%
Los Angeles Times March 14–19, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 36% 21 1,500 ±2.9%
Rasmussen Reports February 8–16, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 35% 22 500 ±4.5%
58% Rick Santorum 30% 28
SurveyUSA February 8–9, 2012 Barack Obama 60% Mitt Romney 31% 29 2,088 ±2.1%
63% Newt Gingrich 27% 36
61% Ron Paul 29% 31
61% Rick Santorum 29% 32

ColoradoColorado[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Keating Research August 21–22, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 500 ±4.4%
Purple Strategies August 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 600 ±4.0%
Rasmussen August 6, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 47% Tied 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling August 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 779 LV ±3.5%
Purple Strategies July 9–13, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 600 LV ±4.0%
We Ask America June 25, 2012 Barack Obama 46.6% Mitt Romney 43.0% 3.6 1,083LV ±2.98%
Public Policy Polling June 14–17, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 799LV ±3.5%
Rasmussen Reports June 7, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied 500 ±4.5%
Purple Strategies May 31 – June 5, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 600 ±4.0%
NBC News/Marist Poll May 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1 1,030 ±3.0%
Project New America May 21–24, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 601 ±4.0%
Purple Poll April 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 47% Tied 1,705 ±4.1%
Public Policy Polling April 5–7, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 40% 13 542 ±4.2%
55% Newt Gingrich 37% 18
54% Rick Santorum 38% 16
47% Ron Paul 42% 5

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic  % Republican  % Libertarian  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 42% Gary Johnson 4% 4 779 ±3.5%
Public Policy Polling June 14–17, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 39% Gary Johnson 7% 8 799 ±3.5%

ConnecticutConnecticut[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Quinnipiac August 22–26, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 45% 7 1,472 LV ±2.6%
Rasmussen August 21, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 43% 8 500 LV ±4.5%
Quinnipiac May 29, 2012 – June 3, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 38% 12 1,408 ±2.6%
Quinnipiac March 14–19, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 37% 16 1,622 ±2.4%
55% Rick Santorum 35% 20

FloridaFlorida[edit]

29 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 51%–48%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
CNN/TIME/ORC August 22–26, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 46% 4 776 LV ±3.5%
Quinnipiac August 15–21, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 1,241 LV ±%
Gravis Marketing August 20, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 48% 3 728 LV ±3.8%
Foster Mc Collum August 17, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 54% 14 1,503 LV ±2.53%
Rasmussen Reports August 15, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 45% 2 500 ±4.5%
Purple Strategies August 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 48% 1 600 ±4.0%
Quinnipiac July 24–30, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 45% 6 1,177 LV ±3.0%
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 47% 1 871 LV ±3.3%
SurveyUSA July 17–19, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 647 LV ±3.9%
Purple Strategies July 9–13, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 48% 3 600 LV ±4.0%
Mason Dixon July 9-11, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1 800RV ±3.5%
Rasmussen Reports July 10, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 46% 1 500LV ±4.5%
We Ask America July 1–2, 2012 Barack Obama 46.1% Mitt Romney 45.3% 0.8 1,127LV ±2.9%
Quinnipiac June 19–25, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4 1,200RV ±2.8%
Quinnipiac June 12–18, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 42% 4 1,697RV ±2.4%
Purple Strategies May 31, 2012 – June 5, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 49% 4 600LV ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling May 31 – June 3, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 46% 4 642RV ±3.9%
Quinnipiac May 15–21, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 47% 6 1,722RV ±2.4%
NBC News/Marist May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 1,078RV ±3.0%
Suffolk/7News May 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1 600 ±--%
Quinnipiac April 25 – May 1, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 44% 1 1,169 ±2.9%
Rasmussen Reports April 25, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 46% 1 500 ±4.5%
Purple Poll April 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 47% 2 1,705 ±4.1%
Fox News
Anderson Robbins
Shaw & Co.
April 15–17, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 43% 2 757 ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling April 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Newt Gingrich 40% 8 700 ±3.7%
50% Ron Paul 40% 10
50% Mitt Romney 45% 5
Quinnipiac March 20–26, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 1,228 ±2.8%
50% Rick Santorum 37% 13
Rasmussen Reports March 13, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43% 3 500 ±4.5%
45% Rick Santorum 43% 2
Rasmussen Reports February 9, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 44% 3 500 ±4.5%
47% Rick Santorum 46% 1
NBC News/Marist College January 25–27, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 41% 8 2,795 ±1.9%
52% Newt Gingrich 35% 17
50% Ron Paul 36% 14
50% Rick Santorum 35% 15
Mason-Dixon
Miami Herald
El Nuevo Herald
January 24–26, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 48% 4 800 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 41% 9
50% Rick Santorum 39% 11
Suffolk University January 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 47% 5 600 ±--%
Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 40% 9
Quinnipiac January 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied 1,518 ±2.5%
Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 39% 11
47% Ron Paul 39% 8
49% Rick Santorum 40% 9
Everglades Foundation/Tarrance Group January 4–8, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1 607 ±4.1%
Quinnipiac January 4–8, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 3 1,412 ±2.8%
Barack Obama 45% Rick Santorum 43% 2

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic  % Republican  % Libertarian  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Mason Dixon July 9-11, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% Gary Johnson 2% 1 800 ±3.5%

Georgia (U.S. state)Georgia[edit]

16 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
20/20 Insight August 15–18, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 49% 3 1,158 LV ±2.9%
Insider Advantage May 22, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 52% 12 438 ±%
Landmark/Rosetta Stone May 10, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 51% 11 600 ±4.0%
Survey USA February 23–26, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Newt Gingrich 48% 4 1,156 ±2.9%
42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
43% Rick Santorum 47% 4
43% Ron Paul 46% 3

IllinoisIllinois[edit]

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 55%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Crain's/Ipsos July 16–22, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 31% 20 600 ±4.7%
Chicago Tribune February 2–6, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 35% 21 600 ±4.0%

IndianaIndiana[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Ramussen Reports July 31 – August 1, 2012 Barack Obama 35% Mitt Romney 51% 16 400 ±5.0%
Ramussen Reports May 25, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 48% 6 600 ±4.0%
Howey Politics
DePauw University
Bellwether Research
Garin-Hart-Yang

March 26–27, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 49% 9 503 ±4.5%
41% Rick Santorum 46% 5

IowaIowa[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 23–26, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 45% 2 1,244 ±2.8%
Rasmussen August 8, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling July 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 1,131 ±2.91%
We Ask America June 18, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 1,086 ±3.0%
Ramussen Reports June 11, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 47% 1 500 ±4.0%
NBC News/Marist Poll May 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied 1,106 ±3.0%
Public Policy Polling May 3–6, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Ron Paul 39% 8 1,181 ±2.85%
Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 41% 10
Des Moines Register February 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 37% 14 611 ±3.5%
Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2
42% Ron Paul 49% 7
44% Rick Santorum 48% 4

MaineMaine[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Critical Insights June 20–25, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 35% 14 615 ±4.0%
MassINC June 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 34% 14 506LV ±4.4%
Critical Insights May 2–7, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 600 ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling March 2–4, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Ron Paul 38% 16 1,256 ±2.8%
58% Rick Santorum 35% 23
60% Newt Gingrich 32% 28
58% Mitt Romney 35% 23

MarylandMaryland[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 56%–43%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling May 14–16, 2012 Barack Obama 58% Mitt Romney 35% 23 852 ±3.4%

MassachusettsMassachusetts[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 62%–37%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 16 – 19, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 39% 16 1,115LV ±2.9%
Public Policy Polling June 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 39% 16 902LV ±3.3%
W.N.E. University Poll May 29–31, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 34% 22 504 ±4.4%
The Boston Globe May 25–31, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 34% 12 651 ±3.8%
Suffolk University May 20–22, 2012 Barack Obama 59% Mitt Romney 34% 25 600 ±%
Rasmussen Reports May 7, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 35% 21 500 ±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports April 9, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 40% 11 500 ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling March 16–18, 2012 Barack Obama 62% Newt Gingrich 28% 34 936 ±3.2%
58% Ron Paul 30% 28
58% Mitt Romney 35% 23
61% Rick Santorum 29% 32
Rasmussen Reports February 11–15, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Mitt Romney 38% 17 500 ±4.5%
58% Rick Santorum 32% 26
Suffolk University February 11–15, 2012 Barack Obama 63% Newt Gingrich 27% 36 600 ±4.0%
53% Mitt Romney 39% 14
59% Rick Santorum 32% 27
60% Ron Paul 26% 34

Four Way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Green  % Libertarian  % Lead margin
Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ±3.3%
Sample size: 902LV
June 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 38% Jill Stein 3% Gary Johnson 1% 15

MichiganMichigan[edit]

16 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
EPIC-MRA August 28, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 N/A ±2.6%
Detroit News August 18–20, 2012 Barack Obama 47.5% Mitt Romney 42.0% 5.5 600 LV ±4.0%
Foster McCollum August 16, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1 1,733 LV ±2.35%
Mitchell Research August 13, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 44% 5 1,079 LV ±2.98%
EPIC-MRA July 24–31, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6 600 ±3.5%
Mitchell Research July 23, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1 825 LV ±3.4%
Rasmussen July 23, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6 500 LV ±4.5%
PPP July 21–23, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 39% 14 579 RV ±4.1%
NBC News/Marist College June 28, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 39% 5 1209 LV ±3.0%
Mitchell June 18, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1 750 LV ±3.58%
We Ask America June 18, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 45% 2 1,010LV ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports June 14, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 500 LV ±4.5%
Foster McCollum June 12, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 45% 2 1,783 ±2.32%
EPIC-MRA June 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 46% 1 600 ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 39% 14 500 ±4.4%
Glengariff Group May 10–11, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 40% 5 600 ±4.0%
EPIC-MRA March 31 – April 3, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43 4 600 ±4.0%
NBC News/Marist College February 19–20, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Rick Santorum 29% 26 3,149 ±1.8%
56% Newt Gingrich 28% 28
53% Ron Paul 31% 22
51% Mitt Romney 33% 18
Public Policy Polling February 10–12, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Rick Santorum 39% 11 560 ±4.14%
56% Newt Gingrich 34% 22
52% Ron Paul 34% 18
54% Mitt Romney 38% 16
Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA January 21–25, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 38% 13 600 ±4.0%
48% Mitt Romney 40% 8

MinnesotaMinnesota[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
SurveyUSA July 17–19, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 40% 6 552 ±4.3%
Public Policy Polling May 31 – June 3, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 39% 15 973 ±3.1%
Survey USA May 9–10, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 38% 14 516 ±4.4%
Survey USA January 31 – February 2, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 36% 13 542 ±4.3%
55% Newt Gingrich 29% 26
48% Ron Paul 37% 11
51% Rick Santorum 32% 19
Public Policy Polling January 21–22, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Newt Gingrich 39% 15 1,236 ±2.8%
52% Rick Santorum 40% 12
51% Ron Paul 38% 13
51% Mitt Romney 41% 10

MissouriMissouri[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 53%–46%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–49%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 28–29, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 53% 12 621 LV ±3.9%
Gravis Marketing August 23, 2012 Barack Obama 36% Mitt Romney 53% 17 1,057 LV ±3.4%
Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon August 22–23, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 50% 7 625 LV ±4.0%
Rasmussen August 22, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling August 20, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 52% 10 500 LV ±4.4%
SurveyUSA August 9–12, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1 585 LV ±4.1%
Chilenski Strategies August 8, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 48% 1 663LV ±3.8%
Rasmussen July 30, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 50% 6 500 ±4.5%
We Ask America July 24, 2012 Barack Obama 39.7% Mitt Romney 49.0% 9.3 1,172 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports June 7, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 49% 7 500 ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 602 ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports April 17, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 48% 3 500 ±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports March 14–15, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Rick Santorum 51% 9 500 ±4.5%
Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 50% 9
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Newt Gingrich 42% 7 582 ±4.1%
Barack Obama 45% Ron Paul 43% 2
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied
Barack Obama 47% Rick Santorum 44% 3

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic  % Republican  % Libertarian  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
We Ask America July 24, 2012 Barack Obama 39.7% Mitt Romney 49.0% Gary Johnson 2.1% 9.3 1,172 LV ±3.0%

MontanaMontana[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–39%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports August 20, 2012 Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 55% 17 500 LV ±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports June 18, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 51% 9 500 ±5.0%
Rasmussen Reports May 2, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 51% 7 450 ±5.0%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 48% 5 934 ±3.2%
41% Ron Paul 49% 8
Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 45% Tie
Rasmussen Reports February 22, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 48% 7 500 ±4.5%
41% Rick Santorum 45% 4

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic  % Republican  % Libertarian  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 43% Gary Johnson 8% 2 934 ±3.2%

NebraskaNebraska[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 66%–33%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports May 16, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 53% 14 500 ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling (Statewide) March 22–25, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 51% 12 1,028 ±3.1%
38% Rick Santorum 55% 17
40% Newt Gingrich 49% 9
37% Ron Paul 49% 12
Public Policy Polling (2nd Congressional District) March 22–25, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 46% 1 1,028 ±3.1%
Barack Obama 47% Rick Santorum 47% Tied
Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 44% 2
Barack Obama 42% Ron Paul 44% 2
Rasmussen Reports March 5, 2012 Barack Obama 35% Mitt Romney 52% 17 500 ±4.5%
37% Rick Santorum 49% 12

NevadaNevada[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 55%–43%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 23–26, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 47% 3 831 LV ±3.4%
LVRJ/SurveyUSA August 16–21, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 45% 2 869 LV ±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports July 24, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 45% 5 500 ±4.5%
We Ask America July 17–18, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 1,092 ±2.95%
Magellan Strategies July 16–17, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 46% 4 665 ±3.8%
Public Policy Polling June 7–10, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6 500 ±4.4%
NBC News/Marist May 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 1,040 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports April 30, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 44% 8 500 ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling March 29 – April 1, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 43% 8 533 ±4.2%
54% Rick Santorum 40% 14
49% Ron Paul 42% 7
54% Newt Gingrich 39% 15
Rasmussen Reports March 19, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 500 ±4.5%
52% Rick Santorum 36% 16

New HampshireNew Hampshire[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 9–12, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 45% 6 1,055 LV ±3.0%
UNH/WMUR August 1–12, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 555 LV ±4.1%
UNH/WMUR July 5–15, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 45% 4 521 ±4.3%
NBC News/Marist College June 28, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 42% 1 1029 LV ±3.1%
American Research Group June 21–24, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 43% 8 535RV ±4.2%
American Research Group June 21–24, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 417LV ±--%
Rasmussen June 20, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 500 ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 41% 12 1,163 ±2.9%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire April 9–20, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 42% 9 486 ±4.4%
Dartmouth College April 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 42.4% Mitt Romney 43.9% 1.5 403 ±4.9%
WMUR Granite State January 25 – February 2, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 40% 10 527 ±4.3%
50% Ron Paul 42% 8
60% Newt Gingrich 35% 25
56% Rick Santorum 35% 21

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic candidate  % Republican candidate  % Libertarian  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 38% Gary Johnson 7% 13 1,163 ±2.9%

New JerseyNew Jersey[edit]

14 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 52%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Rutgers University August 23–25, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 37% 14 710 LV ±3.5%
Monmouth University July 18–22, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 38% 13 678 RV ±3.8%
Quinnipiac July 9–15, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 38% 11 1,623 RV ±2.4%
Rutgers-Eagleton May 31 – June 4, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 33% 23 1,065 RV ±2.9%
Quinnipiac May 9–14, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 39% 10 1,582 ±2.5%
Fairleigh Dickinson University April 30 – May 6, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 36% 14 797 ±3.5%
Quinnipiac April 3–9, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 40 9 1,607 ±2.4%
51% Rick Santorum 36% 15
Quinnipiac February 21–27, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 39% 10 1,396 ±2.6%
55% Newt Gingrich 30% 25
52% Rick Santorum 34% 18
Survey USA February 24–26, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 38% 14 533 ±4.3%
61% Newt Gingrich 27% 34
57% Rick Santorum 33% 24
56% Ron Paul 31% 25
Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics February 9-11 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 31% 25 914 ±3.3%
Quinnipiac January 10–16 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 38% 10 1,460 ±2.6%

New MexicoNew Mexico[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Rasmussen August 21, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 38% 14 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling July 13–16, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 44% 5 724 ±3.6%
We Ask America July 9–10, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 40% 11 1,295 LV ±2.8%
FMMMA May 16–21, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 35% 13 502 ±4.4%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 35% 14 526 ±4.3%
Rasmussen Reports April 3, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Rick Santorum 38% 15 500 ±4.5%
52% Mitt Romney 36% 16
Rasmussen Reports February 14, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Rick Santorum 37% 18 590 ±4.5%
55% Mitt Romney 36% 19

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic candidate  % Republican candidate  % Libertarian  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling July 13–16, 2012 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 38% Gary Johnson 13% 4 724 ±3.64%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 35% Gary Johnson 15% 13 526 ±4.3%

New YorkNew York[edit]

29 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 58%–40%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–36%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Siena August 14–19, 2012 Barack Obama 62% Mitt Romney 33% 29 671 LV ±3.8%
Siena July 10–15, 2012 Barack Obama 61% Mitt Romney 34% 27 758 RV ±3.6%
Siena June 3–6, 2012 Barack Obama 59% Mitt Romney 35% 24 807 ±3.4%
Quinnipiac May 22–28, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 31% 25 1,504 ±2.5%
Siena College May 6–10, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 37% 20 766 ±3.5%
NY1/YNN-Marist April 10–12, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 35% 22 632 ±4.0%
Siena College April 1–4, 2012 Barack Obama 65% Newt Gingrich 29% 36 808 ±3.4%
61% Ron Paul 31% 30
60% Mitt Romney 35% 25
62% Rick Santorum 23% 39
Quinnipiac March 28 – April 2, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Mitt Romney 33% 23 1,597 ±2.5%
59% Rick Santorum 30% 29
Siena College February 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 60% Mitt Romney 34% 26 808 ±3.4%
64% Rick Santorum 30% 34
62% Ron Paul 29% 33
66% Newt Gingrich 27% 39
Quinnipiac February 8–13, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 35% 17 1,233 ±2.8%
57% Newt Gingrich 31% 26
53% Rick Santorum 35% 18

North CarolinaNorth Carolina[edit]

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
SurveyUSA/HPU/FOX8 August 26–30, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 3 543 RV ±4.3%
Elon University Poll August 25–30, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 47% 4 1,089 LV ±3%
CNN/TIME/ORC August 22–26, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 48% 1 766 LV ±3.5%
Public Policy Polling August 2–5, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 813 LV ±3.4%
Civitas July 16–18, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 49% 1 600 RV ±4%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1 775 ±3.5%
Civitas/SurveyUSA June 29 – July 1, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 50% 5 558 RV ±4.2%
NBC News/Marist College June 28, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 44% 2 1208 LV ±3.1%
Rasmussen June 25, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 47% 3 500 ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling June 7–10, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 48% 2 810 ±3.4%
Survey USA May 18–21, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1 524 ±4.4%
Rasmussen Reports May 14, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 51% 8 500 ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 47% 1 666 ±3.8%
Survey USA April 26–30, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4 1,636 ±2.5%
Rasmussen Reports April 10, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2 500 ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling April 4–7, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 41% 10 975 ±3.1%
48% Ron Paul 43% 5
49% Mitt Romney 44% 5
50% Rick Santorum 44% 6
Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 42% 9 804 ±3.5%
48% Ron Paul 41% 7
49% Mitt Romney 46% 3
49% Rick Santorum 44% 5
Public Policy Polling February 3–5, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 45% 5 1,052 ±3.5%
47% Ron Paul 41% 6
47% Mitt Romney 46% 1
48% Rick Santorum 46% 2
Civitas Institute January 9-11, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 48% 9 300 ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling January 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% 1 780 ±3.5%
49% Newt Gingrich 43% 6
47% Ron Paul 41% 6
49% Rick Perry 41% 8
Barack Obama 46% Rick Santorum 46% Tied

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic candidate  % Republican candidate  % Libertarian  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 44% Gary Johnson 6% 2 666 ±3.8%

North DakotaNorth Dakota[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 63%–36%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
DFM Research (D-ND Dems/NPL) July 24 – 26, 2012 Barack Obama 35% Mitt Romney 54% 19 400 LV ±4.9%
Rasmussen Reports July 10–11, 2012 Barack Obama 36% Mitt Romney 51% 15 400 ±5.0%
Mason-Dixon June 4–6, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 52% 13 625 ±4.0%

OhioOhio[edit]

18 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Columbus Dispatch
August 15–25, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied 1,758 LV ±2.1%
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS August 21, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 1,253 LV ±%
University of Cincinnati August 16–21, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 847 LV ±3.4%
Purple Strategies August 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2 600 ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports August 13, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 45% Tied 500 LV ±4.5%
Public Policy Polling August 9–12, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 45% 3 961 LV ±3.2%
Quinnipiac July 24–30, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 1,193 LV ±3.0%
We Ask America July 24, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 40% 8 1,115 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports July 18, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 45% 2 500 ±4.5%
Purple Strategies July 9–13, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 45% 3 600 LV ±4.0%
Quinnipiac June 19–25, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 38% 9 1,237 RV ±2.8%
PPP June 21–24, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 44% 3 673 ±3.8%
Purple Strategies May 31 – June 5, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 48% 3 600 ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports May 29, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 46% 2 500 ±4.5%
NBC News/Marist May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 42% 6 1,103RV ±3.0%
Quinnipiac May 2–7, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 1,069 ±3.0%
Public Policy Polling May 3–6, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Ron Paul 40% 8 875 ±3.3%
50% Mitt Romney 43% 7
Quinnipiac April 25 – May 1, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 42% 2 1,130 ±2.9%
Purple Poll April 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 44% 5 1,705 ±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports April 18, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 42% 4 500 ±4.5%
Fox News
Anderson Robbins
Shaw & Co.
April 15–17, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 39% 6 606 ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports March 26, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 40% 8 500 ±4.5%
47% Rick Santorum 41% 6
Quinnipiac March 20–26, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 41% 6 1,246 ±2.8%
47% Rick Santorum 40% 7
NBC News/Marist February 29 – March 2, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 38% 12 Varies[1] ±2.5%
51% Newt Gingrich 36% 15
48% Ron Paul 38% 10
50% Rick Santorum 36% 14
Fox News February 11–13, 2012 Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 44% 6 505 ±4.5%
Barack Obama 43% Newt Gingrich 37% 6
Barack Obama 40% Rick Santorum 43% 3
Barack Obama 41% Ron Paul 42% 1
Quinnipiac February 7–12, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 38% 12 1,421 ±2.6%
47% Rick Santorum 41% 6
46% Ron Paul 40% 6
46% Mitt Romney 44% 2
Rasmussen Reports February 8, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Rick Santorum 44% Tied 500 ±4.5%
Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 41% 4
Public Policy Polling January 28–29, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Rick Santorum 42% 6 820 ±3.4%
51% Newt Gingrich 39% 12
48% Ron Paul 38% 10
49% Mitt Romney 42% 7
Quinnipiac January 9–16, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Rick Santorum 37% 11 1,610 ±2.4%
52% Newt Gingrich 38% 14
48% Ron Paul 39% 9
44% Mitt Romney 42% 2

OklahomaOklahoma[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 65.6%–34.4%
(Republican in 2008) 65.7%–34.4%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
SoonerPoll July 26 – August 14, 2012 Barack Obama 29% Mitt Romney 58% 29 495 LV ±4.4%
SoonerPoll May 7–10, 2012 Barack Obama 27% Mitt Romney 62% 35 504 LV ±4.4%

OregonOregon[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
PPP June 21–24, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 686 ±3.7%
Survey USA May 7–10, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4 1,468 ±2.6%
Survey USA March 14–19, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 39% 11 1,615 ±2.5%
54% Newt Gingrich 34% 20
49% Rick Santorum 40% 9
48% Ron Paul 39% 9

PennsylvaniaPennsylvania[edit]

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Philadelphia Inquirer August 21–23, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 42% 9 601 LV ±4%
The Morning Call August 20–22, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 40% 9 422 LV ±5%
Franklin and Marshall College August 7–12, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5 681 RV ±3.8%
Quinnipiac July 24–30, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 42% 11 1,168 LV ±3.0%
Public Policy Polling July 21–23, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 758 RV ±3.6%
Rasmussen July 18, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 500 LV ±4.5%
We Ask America July 9–10, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 40% 7 1,227 LV ±2.8%
Quinnipiac June 19–25, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 39% 6 1,252 RV ±2.8%
Quinnipiac June 5–10, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 40% 6 997 ±3.1%
Franklin & Marshall College May 29 – June 4, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 36% 12 412 ±%
Rasmussen Reports May 23, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 41% 6 500 ±4.5%
Quinnipiac April 25 – May 1, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 39% 8 1,168 ±2.9%
Quinnipiac March 20–26, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 42% 3 1,232 ±2.8%
48% Rick Santorum 41% 7
Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 689 ±4.1%
51% Newt Gingrich 39% 12
47% Ron Paul 41% 6
48% Rick Santorum 46% 2
Quinnipiac March 7–11, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 40% 6 1,256 ±2.8%
50% Newt Gingrich 37% 13
45% Ron Paul 40% 5
45% Rick Santorum 44% 1
Rasmussen Reports February 8–23, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 438 ±4.5%
46% Rick Santorum 40% 6
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call February 15–21, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 37% 11 625 ±4.0%
49% Rick Santorum 41% 8
Franklin & Marshall College February 14–20, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 33% 8 592 ±4.0%
47% Newt Gingrich 31% 16
41% Ron Paul 28% 13
45% Rick Santorum 37% 8
Susquehanna Polling and Research February 2–6, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 45% 2 800 ±3.46%
Barack Obama 47% Rick Santorum 43% 4

South CarolinaSouth Carolina[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Reuters/Ipsos January 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 46% 6 995 ±3.4%

South DakotaSouth Dakota[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Nielson Brothers July 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 49% 6 546 ±4.19%

TennesseeTennessee[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Vanderbilt University May 2–9, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 42% 1 1,002 ±4%
Vanderbilt University May 2–9, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 47% 7 ~752 RV ±4%
Middle TN State University February 13–25, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Newt Gingrich 45% 4 416 ±4.0%
41% Ron Paul 44% 3
41% Mitt Romney 47% 6
39% Rick Santorum 51% 12
Vanderbilt University February 16–22, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Newt Gingrich 38% 3 1,508 ±2.6%
Barack Obama 39% Ron Paul 40% 1
39% Mitt Romney 42% 3
38% Rick Santorum 42% 4

TexasTexas[edit]

38 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 61%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 55%–44%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
University of Texas/Texas Tribune May 7–13, 2012 Barack Obama 35% Mitt Romney 55% 20 511 ±4.3%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 50% 7 491 ±4.0
45% Newt Gingrich 47% 2
43% Ron Paul 47% 4
University of Texas/Texas Tribune January 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 38% Newt Gingrich 49% 11 Varies[2] Varies
36% Mitt Romney 49% 13
37% Rick Santorum 51% 14
35% Ron Paul 44% 9
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 45% 2 700 ±3.7%
Barack Obama 40% Ron Paul 46% 6
47% Rick Perry 48% 1
42% Mitt Romney 49% 7
42% Rick Santorum 49% 7

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic  % Republican  % Other candidates  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error

Public Policy Polling

January 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 47% Gary Johnson 7% 8 700 ±3.7%
Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 40% Ron Paul* 17% 2
  • – Ron Paul was running as a Republican candidate.

UtahUtah[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 72%–26%
(Republican in 2008) 62%–34%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Dan Jones Associates June 21, 2012 Barack Obama 26% Mitt Romney 68% 42 1,222 ±2.8%

VermontVermont[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 67%–30%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Castleton State College August 11–21, 2012 Barack Obama 62% Mitt Romney 25% 37 477 RV ±%
Castleton State College May 7–16, 2012 Barack Obama 59% Mitt Romney 28% 31 607 ±4.0%
Castleton State College February 11–22, 2012 Barack Obama 57% Mitt Romney 31% 26 800 ±3.5%
59% Rick Santorum 30% 29
58% Ron Paul 28% 30

VirginiaVirginia[edit]

13 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 53%–46%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 45% 5 855 LV ±3.4%
Purple Strategies August 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 48% 3 600 ±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports August 7, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 500 LV ±4.5%
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS July 31 – August 6, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 45% 4 1,412 LV ±%
Rasmussen Reports July 16–17, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1 500 LV ±4.5%
Quinnipiac July 10–16, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44% Tied 1,673 RV ±2.4%
Purple Strategies July 9–13, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 44% 2 600 LV ±4.0%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 647 ±3.9%
We Ask America June 25, 2012 Barack Obama 43.3% Mitt Romney 48.0% 4.7 1,106 ±2.95%
ODU/Virginian-Pilot May 16 – June 15, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 776 RV ±3.5%
Purple Strategies May 31 – June 5, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 600 ±4.0%
Quinnipiac May 30 – June 4, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5 1,282RV ±2.7%
Rasmussen Reports June 4, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 47% Tied 500 ±4.5%
NBC News/Marist May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44% 4 1,076 RV ±3.0%
Washington Post April 28 – May 1, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 44% 7 964 ±4%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 37% 16 680 ±3.8%
50% Ron Paul 39% 11
51% Mitt Romney 43% 8
Rasmussen Reports April 23, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 45% 1 500 ±4.5
Purple Poll April 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 46% 2 1,705 ±4.1%
Roanoke College March 26 – April 5, 2012 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 46% 6 603 ±4%
Quinnipiac March 13–18, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 42% 8 1,034 ±3.1%
54% Newt Gingrich 35% 19
49% Rick Santorum 40% 9
49% Ron Paul 39% 10
NBC News/Marist College February 29 – March 2, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 35% 17 1,273/1,245 ±2.8%
57% Newt Gingrich 31% 26
54% Rick Santorum 32% 22
53% Ron Paul 32% 21
Roanoke College February 13–26, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 37% 11 607 ±4%
45% Rick Santorum 39% 6
45% Ron Paul 35% 10
Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 43% 1
Rasmussen Reports February 21, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 500 ±4.5%
51% Rick Santorum 43% 8
Christopher Newport University
Richmond Times-Dispatch
Muhlenberg College
February 4–13, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 40% 5 1,018 ±3.1%
Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46% 2
Barack Obama 42% Rick Santorum 46% 4
Barack Obama 43% Ron Paul 43% Tie
Quinnipiac February 1–6, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 43% 4 1,544 ±2.5%
51% Newt Gingrich 37% 14
49% Rick Santorum 41% 8
47% Ron Paul 40% 7
Quinnipiac January 16–18, 2012 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44% 1 625 ±3.9%
49% Newt Gingrich 38% 11

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic  % Republican  % Constitution Party  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 35% Virgil Goode 9% 14 647 ±3.9%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 38% Virgil Goode 5% 12 680 ±3.8%

Washington (state)Washington[edit]

12 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
SurveyUSA August 2–3, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 37% 17 700 ±4.4%
SurveyUSA July 16–18, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 37% 9 630 ±4%
Marquette Law School June 13–16, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 594 ±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports June 12, 2012 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 47% 3 500 ±4.5%
We Ask America June 6, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 1,270 ±2.75%
Public Policy Polling June 14–17, 2012 Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 41% 13 1,073 ±3.0%
Elway June 13–16, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 41% 8 408 ±5%
SurveyUSA May 8–9, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 36% 14 557 ±4.2%
Public Policy Polling February 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Newt Gingrich 35% 20 1,264 ±2.76%
53% Mitt Romney 38% 15
51% Ron Paul 38% 13
52% Rick Santorum 40% 12
Survey USA February 13–15, 2012 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 34% 22 572 ±4.2%
50% Mitt Romney 39% 11
50% Ron Paul 37% 13
51% Rick Santorum 38% 13

West VirginiaWest Virginia[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
R.L. Repass August 22–25, 2012 Barack Obama 38% Mitt Romney 52% 14 401 LV ±4.9%
R.L. Repass April 25–28, 2012 Barack Obama 37% Mitt Romney 54% 17 410 ±4.8%

WisconsinWisconsin[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 56%–42%

Poll source Date administered Democrat  % Republican  % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS August 15–21, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 47% 2 1,190 LV ±3%
Marquette University August 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 576 LV ±4.2%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 48% 1 1,308 LV ±2.7%
Rasmussen Reports August 15, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 48% 1 500 LV ±4.5%
CNN August 13–14, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 45% 4 920 RV ±3.0%
Quinnipiac July 31 – August 6, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 45% 6 1,691 ±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports July 25, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46% 3 500 ±4.5%
We Ask America July 17–18, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42% 7 1,162 ±2.93%
Marquette Law School July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 43% 8 810 ±3.5%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 1,057 ±3.3%
Marquette Law School May 23–26, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 43% 8 600 ±%
St. Norbery College May 17–22, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 43% 6 406 ±5.0%
Daily Kos Wisconsin Poll May 11–13, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 46% 1 851 ±3.4%
Marquette Law School May 9–12, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 46% Tied 600 ±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports May 9, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 45% 4 500 ±4.5%
Marquette University April 26–29, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 42% 9 705 ±3.8%
Public Policy Polling April 13–15, 2012 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 44% 6 1,136 ±2.9%
NBC News/Marist College March 22–25, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 35% 17 1,391–1400 ±2.6%
51% Rick Santorum 38% 13
56% Newt Gingrich 31% 25
51% Ron Paul 36% 15
Rasmussen Reports March 27, 2012 Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 41% 11 500 ±4.5%
51% Rick Santorum 39% 12
Marquette University March 22–25, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 43% 5 707 ±3.7%
51% Rick Santorum 39% 12
53% Newt Gingrich 36% 17
50% Ron Paul 40% 10
Rasmussen Reports February 27, 2012 Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42% 5 500 ±4.5%
46% Rick Santorum 41% 5
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 Barack Obama 55% Newt Gingrich 37% 18 900 ±3.27%
53% Ron Paul 37% 16
53% Mitt Romney 39% 14
49% Rick Santorum 43% 6
Marquette University February 16–19, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 38% 15 716 ±3.7%
51% Rick Santorum 40% 11
56% Newt Gingrich 33% 23
52% Ron Paul 36% 16
Marquette University January 19–22, 2012 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 40% 8 701 ±3.8%

Three Way race

Poll source Date Democratic candidate  % Republican candidate  % Libertarian  % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of error
Reason-Rupe May 14–18, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 36% Gary Johnson 6% 10 708 ±3.7%

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ The sample size for Obama vs Romney was 1,573, the sample size for Obama vs Gingrich was 1,573, the sample size for Obama vs Paul was 1,505 and the sample size for Obama vs Santorum was 1,505
  2. ^ The sample size for Obama vs Gingrich was 527 with an MoE of ±4.27%, the sample size for Obama vs Romney was 529 with an MoE of ±4.26%, the sample size for Obama vs Santorum was 529 with an MoE of ±4.26% and the sample size for Obama vs Paul was 529 with an MoE of ±4.26%