United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004

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United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004
Missouri
2000 ←
November 2, 2004 → 2008

  George-W-Bush.jpeg John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,455,713 1,259,171
Percentage 53.3% 46.1%

MO2004.jpg

County Results
  Kerry—80-90%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Missouri was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 7.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 10 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. He also won a wide majority of the counties and congressional districts in the state. Despite the fact that the state has voted for the eventual winner of the election in a presidential election since 1912, with the exception of the 1956, Bush carried this state with a larger margin of victory than his nationwide results, indicating that the state is more conservative than the rest of the country and that it's trending Republican. These factors eventually led the state to lose its bellwether status in the next election.

Primaries[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Predictions[edit]

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Toss Up
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling[edit]

From May 2004, Bush won every single poll from the state. The final 3 polls taken from the state averaged Bush leading with 51% to 45%.[2]

Fundraising[edit]

Bush raised $4,026,802.[3] Kerry raised $1,418,159.[4]

Advertising and visits[edit]

This state was considered a major swing state. Both the Republican ticket and Democratic ticket visited the state 7 times in the general election. Kerry focused mostly on the urban areas such as St. Louis and Kansas City, while Bush focused more on rural such as Warrenton, Missouri and Sedalia, Missouri.[5]

Analysis[edit]

This was a better result for President Bush than 2000, when he carried the state by only 3%. In 2004, he received 265,789 more votes than in 2000, while Kerry won only 148,033 more votes than Gore in 2000. Bush won by a 7% margin. Kerry won just 4 counties in the state: Jackson County, Ste. Genevieve, St. Louis County, and St. Louis City.

Results[edit]

United States presidential election in Missouri, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Party George W. Bush 1,455,713 53.3% 11
Democratic Party John Kerry 1,259,171 46.1% 0
Libertarian Party Michael Badnarik 9,831 0.4% 0
Constitution Party Michael Peroutka 5,355 0.2% 0
Write In Ralph Nader 1,294 0.1% 0
Totals - 100.00% 11
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)[6][7] 63.6%

Results breakdown[edit]

By county[edit]

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others# Total
Adair 43.3% 4,938 55.8% 6,367 0.9% 99 11,404
Andrew 37.1% 3,069 62.1% 5,135 0.8% 62 8,266
Atchison 31.8% 1,005 67.7% 2,137 0.4% 14 3,156
Audrain 40.4% 4,318 58.9% 6,294 0.7% 71 10,683
Barry 30.3% 4,223 68.9% 9,599 0.8% 105 13,927
Barton 22.9% 1,373 76.3% 4,572 0.8% 46 5,991
Bates 40.1% 3,398 59.1% 5,004 0.8% 64 8,466
Benton 37.5% 3,381 61.9% 5,575 0.6% 53 9,009
Bollinger 29.8% 1,754 69.6% 4,102 0.7% 39 5,895
Boone 49.5% 37,643 49.7% 37,801 0.8% 602 76,046
Buchanan 46.9% 17,799 52.2% 19,812 0.9% 339 37,950
Butler 28.4% 4,666 71.1% 11,696 0.5% 79 16,441
Caldwell 38.5% 1,645 60.8% 2,593 0.7% 30 4,268
Callaway 36.9% 6,559 62.5% 11,108 0.6% 106 17,773
Camden 32.3% 6,296 67.2% 13,122 0.5% 101 19,519
Cape Girardeau 30.6% 10,568 68.9% 23,814 0.5% 183 34,565
Carroll 33.1% 1,568 66.5% 3,155 0.4% 18 4,741
Carter 34.7% 964 64.7% 1,797 0.6% 18 2,779
Cass 37.7% 16,681 61.6% 27,253 0.6% 283 44,217
Cedar 30.8% 1,910 68.3% 4,238 0.9% 55 6,203
Chariton 43.6% 1,892 55.8% 2,421 0.6% 27 4,340
Christian 28.9% 9,059 70.5% 22,102 0.6% 187 31,348
Clark 48.0% 1,794 50.8% 1,899 1.2% 43 3,736
Clay 46.3% 44,670 53.1% 51,193 0.6% 597 96,460
Clinton 43.7% 4,165 55.4% 5,287 0.9% 88 9,540
Cole 32.0% 11,753 67.4% 24,752 0.5% 196 36,701
Cooper 32.0% 2,400 67.4% 5,058 0.7% 50 7,508
Crawford 38.7% 3,632 60.6% 5,686 0.7% 63 9,381
Dade 27.0% 1,104 72.5% 2,963 0.5% 22 4,089
Dallas 33.2% 2,407 66.0% 4,788 0.9% 64 7,259
Daviess 37.0% 1,402 62.0% 2,351 1.1% 41 3,794
DeKalb 36.4% 1,707 62.8% 2,941 0.8% 38 4,686
Dent 29.6% 1,865 69.3% 4,369 1.1% 70 6,304
Douglas 27.5% 1,741 71.1% 4,498 1.4% 88 6,327
Dunklin 42.0% 4,901 57.5% 6,720 0.5% 56 11,677
Franklin 40.9% 18,556 58.3% 26,429 0.7% 333 45,318
Gasconade 32.8% 2,355 66.3% 4,753 0.9% 63 7,171
Gentry 36.3% 1,201 63.0% 2,085 0.8% 26 3,312
Greene 37.2% 46,657 62.2% 77,885 0.6% 724 125,266
Grundy 32.5% 1,561 66.0% 3,172 1.6% 75 4,808
Harrison 31.6% 1,279 67.4% 2,729 1.0% 40 4,048
Henry 41.0% 4,461 58.5% 6,361 0.5% 55 10,877
Hickory 42.0% 2,043 57.4% 2,791 0.7% 32 4,866
Holt 30.1% 811 69.3% 1,864 0.6% 16 2,691
Howard 40.1% 1,972 59.2% 2,915 0.7% 34 4,921
Howell 31.2% 5,118 67.8% 11,097 1.0% 164 16,379
Iron 46.1% 2,157 52.9% 2,477 1.0% 45 4,679
Jackson 58.1% 183,654 41.3% 130,500 0.6% 1,839 315,993
Jasper 28.8% 13,002 70.6% 31,846 0.5% 237 45,085
Jefferson 49.4% 46,057 50.0% 46,624 0.6% 583 93,264
Johnson 38.5% 7,790 60.6% 12,257 0.9% 189 20,236
Knox 38.5% 761 61.0% 1,207 0.5% 10 1,978
Laclede 28.3% 4,213 71.1% 10,578 0.5% 78 14,869
Lafayette 39.6% 6,412 59.7% 9,656 0.7% 114 16,182
Lawrence 28.5% 4,506 70.8% 11,194 0.7% 106 15,806
Lewis 37.8% 1,754 61.6% 2,862 0.6% 28 4,644
Lincoln 42.2% 8,368 57.0% 11,316 0.8% 155 19,839
Linn 41.4% 2,440 58.0% 3,422 0.6% 36 5,898
Livingston 35.9% 2,278 63.5% 4,029 0.6% 39 6,346
McDonald 28.7% 2,215 70.5% 5,443 0.9% 67 7,725
Macon 37.7% 2,856 61.7% 4,673 0.5% 41 7,570
Madison 40.1% 1,972 59.1% 2,905 0.8% 41 4,918
Maries 35.3% 1,563 63.9% 2,825 0.8% 36 4,424
Marion 36.7% 4,568 62.8% 7,815 0.6% 70 12,453
Mercer 32.0% 582 66.4% 1,207 1.5% 28 1,817
Miller 27.3% 2,959 72.0% 7,797 0.7% 75 10,831
Mississippi 44.8% 2,374 54.8% 2,903 0.4% 21 5,298
Moniteau 28.6% 1,913 70.9% 4,743 0.5% 35 6,691
Monroe 38.2% 1,647 61.1% 2,632 0.7% 28 4,307
Montgomery 37.3% 2,147 61.9% 3,563 0.9% 50 5,760
Morgan 34.8% 3,053 64.5% 5,657 0.7% 61 8,771
New Madrid 47.0% 3,716 52.5% 4,154 0.5% 37 7,907
Newton 27.5% 6,564 71.9% 17,187 0.6% 138 23,889
Nodaway 37.8% 3,830 61.5% 6,226 0.6% 63 10,119
Oregon 39.0% 1,823 59.3% 2,769 1.7% 81 4,673
Osage 25.1% 1,673 74.6% 4,975 0.3% 23 6,671
Ozark 33.2% 1,561 65.5% 3,083 1.3% 63 4,707
Pemiscot 49.7% 3,381 49.9% 3,398 0.4% 27 6,806
Perry 31.8% 2,621 67.7% 5,583 0.5% 43 8,247
Pettis 33.2% 5,801 66.3% 11,603 0.5% 92 17,496
Phelps 35.6% 6,666 63.5% 11,874 0.9% 160 18,700
Pike 45.6% 3,670 53.7% 4,314 0.7% 56 8,040
Platte 43.9% 18,412 55.5% 23,302 0.6% 256 41,970
Polk 30.3% 3,775 68.9% 8,586 0.7% 92 12,453
Pulaski 29.1% 3,551 70.5% 8,618 0.4% 52 12,221
Putnam 31.6% 772 67.9% 1,660 0.5% 13 2,445
Ralls 40.3% 2,031 59.3% 2,986 0.3% 17 5,034
Randolph 35.2% 3,586 64.2% 6,551 0.6% 61 10,198
Ray 46.7% 5,034 52.6% 5,673 0.8% 81 10,788
Reynolds 43.1% 1,449 56.4% 1,896 0.6% 19 3,364
Ripley 33.7% 1,907 65.3% 3,693 0.9% 53 5,653
St. Charles 40.9% 66,855 58.6% 95,826 0.5% 807 163,488
St. Clair 37.1% 1,841 62.4% 3,098 0.5% 26 4,965
St. Genevieve 52.6% 4,281 46.5% 3,791 0.9% 74 8,146
St. Francois 46.9% 10,748 52.7% 12,087 0.4% 98 22,933
St. Louis City 80.3% 116,133 19.2% 27,793 0.5% 712 144,638
St. Louis County 54.4% 295,284 45.1% 244,969 0.5% 2,730 542,983
Saline 45.1% 4,479 54.2% 5,389 0.7% 71 9,939
Schuyler 44.0% 894 55.3% 1,124 0.6% 13 2,031
Scotland 37.7% 828 61.5% 1,352 0.8% 17 2,197
Scott 34.7% 6,057 64.9% 11,330 0.3% 61 17,448
Shannon 38.8% 1,618 60.3% 2,511 0.9% 38 4,167
Shelby 34.3% 1,201 65.1% 2,280 0.6% 21 3,502
Stoddard 29.8% 3,946 69.7% 9,242 0.5% 64 13,252
Stone 30.1% 4,578 69.4% 10,534 0.5% 77 15,189
Sullivan 38.1% 1,178 60.9% 1,880 1.0% 31 3,089
Taney 29.1% 5,601 70.4% 13,578 0.5% 101 19,280
Texas 33.3% 3,664 65.7% 7,234 1.1% 120 11,018
Vernon 35.7% 3,206 63.7% 5,732 0.6% 54 8,992
Warren 40.7% 5,461 58.7% 7,883 0.7% 88 13,432
Washington 48.6% 4,459 50.6% 4,641 0.8% 78 9,178
Wayne 36.3% 2,250 63.2% 3,919 0.6% 35 6,204
Webster 31.2% 4,657 68.2% 10,194 0.6% 93 14,944
Worth 38.5% 436 61.0% 691 0.4% 5 1,132
Wright 26.2% 2,188 73.0% 6,090 0.8% 68 8,346

By congressional district[edit]

Bush won 6 of 9 congressional districts.[8]

District Bush Kerry
1st 25% 75% William Lacy Clay, Jr.
2nd 60% 40% Todd Akin
3rd 43% 57% Dick Gephardt
Russ Carnahan
4th 64% 35% Ike Skelton
5th 40% 59% Karen McCarthy
Emanuel Cleaver
6th 57% 42% Sam Graves
7th 67% 32% Roy Blunt
8th 64% 36% Jo Ann Emerson
9th 59% 41% Kenny Hulshof

Electors[edit]

Technically the voters of Missouri cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Missouri is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[9]

  1. Rosemary Kochner
  2. Fred Dyer
  3. Miriam Stonebraker
  4. Carolyn McDowell
  5. Cathy Owens
  6. Steve Krueger
  7. Emory Melton
  8. John Schudy
  9. Richard Hardy
  10. John Marshalk
  11. Warren Erdman

References[edit]

See also[edit]