United States presidential election in Missouri, 2008

Main article: United States presidential election, 2008

United States presidential election in Missouri, 2008

2004 ← November 4, 2008 → 2012

Nominee John McCain Barack Obama Party Republican Democratic Home state Arizona Illinois Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden Electoral vote 11 0 Popular vote 1,445,814 1,441,911 Percentage 49.4% 49.3%

County results

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election, which took place throughout all 50 states and D.C.. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Missouri was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 0.1% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this state a toss-up, or a swing state. On election day, Missouri was the closest state in 2008, with some news organizations not calling the state until two weeks after the election. A high turnout of voters in the GOP strongholds of Greene County (Springfield) and St. Charles County combined with Democrat Barack Obama's unsatisfactory performance in the more rural parts of the state gave the edge to Republican John McCain. McCain nipped Obama by fewer than 4,000 votes and the margin of victory was a minuscule difference of 0.14%. The state was so close that Obama could have legally called for a recount, but since he had already won the presidency, he saw no need to do so as the results would have been meaningless in the national totals. It was the first time since 1956 that Missouri did not vote for the winner of the presidency.

Primaries

• Missouri Democratic primary, 2008
• Missouri Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

With the advent of the September financial crisis, Obama began to look viable. John McCain's lead diminished and then disappeared; for several weeks Obama even led Missouri polls. Obama started visiting Republican-leaning states, including Missouri. In one of the more memorable trips of the campaign, he drew crowds of 75,000 at Kansas City and 100,000 at St. Louis. However, John McCain's campaign managed to close the gap and most polls showed a dead tie on and before Election Day.

Although seven of Missouri's eight neighboring states offered the option of early voting, the option was not available in Missouri. Election results must go through a certification process before they are official; local election officials had until November 18 to verify their results and process the provisional ballots cast throughout Missouri.

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Republican
2. Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
3. Takeaway: Toss-Up
4. Election Projection: Leaning McCain
5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning McCain
6. Washington Post: Leaning McCain
7. Politico: Leaning McCain
8. Real Clear Politics: Toss-Up
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain
10. CQ Politics: Toss-Up
11. New York Times: Toss-Up
12. CNN: Toss-Up
13. NPR: Leaning McCain
14. MSNBC: Toss-Up
15. Fox News: Toss-Up
16. Associated Press: Toss-Up
17. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: Missouri

Throughout the general election, McCain consistently won the state's pre-election polls, even reaching above 50% in some of them. In the fall campaign, polls were back and forth with both. In the last few weeks when Obama was having the momentum, the final 5 polls taken in the state were all a tie.

Here are the final polls in the state:

Poll Source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead Margin
Reuters/Zogby	October 31- November 3, 2008	Barack Obama	48.8%	John McCain	48.8%	0
Rasmussen Reports/ Fox News	November 2, 2008	Barack Obama	49%	John McCain	49%	0
Public Policy Polling	October 31-November 2, 2008	Barack Obama	49.4%	John McCain	48.6%	0.8
Reuters/Zogby	October 30- November 2, 2008	Barack Obama	47.4%	John McCain	45.7%	1.7
Survey USA	October 30-November 2, 2008	Barack Obama	48%	John McCain	48%	0

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $2,904,162 in the state. Barack Obama raised $4,999,812.

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $11,323,706. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,428,559.

The Democratic ticket visited the state 13 times throughout the general election. The Republican ticket visited here 14 times.

McCain's Visits:

• June 18: Springfield
• July 15: St. Louis
• July 17: Kansas City
• July 30: Kansas City
• August 31: St. Louis
• October 8: Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin campaigned in Cape Girardeau at the Show-Me Center on the campus of Southeast Missouri State University in an effort to reach out to the base of the GOP.

Obama's Visits:

• May 13: During the course of the ongoing Democratic Presidential Primary, Obama visited Thorngate factory in Cape Girardeau in Southeast Missouri alongside U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill to speak to a group of factory workers. These blue-collar, working-class whites were a voting bloc that strongly backed Hillary Clinton throughout the primary.
• June 9-10: St. Louis
• June 30: Independence
• July 5: St. Louis
• July 7: St. Louis (unscheduled; plane maintenance)
• July 30: Springfield, Rolla, Union
• August 25, 26: Kansas City
• October 18: St. Louis
• October 30: Columbia
• November 1: Springfield

Analysis

As stated, Missouri enjoys the reputation of being the nation's bellwether state. Prior to 2008, since 1904, Missouri had voted for the winner in every presidential election except once in 1956 when the state narrowly voted for Democrat Adlai Stevenson of neighboring Illinois over incumbent Republican President Dwight D. Eisenhower. In recent years, however, it has gradually been trending Republican. Although Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas won the state with ease during both of his elections in 1992 and 1996, Al Gore and John Kerry considered the Show-Me State a lost cause and did not campaign much there. Although Barack Obama is from neighboring Illinois, at first he likewise put the state as a secondary concern in relation to other swing states such as Ohio and Virginia where he thought he had more of a chance. As his lead diminished in the summer months, he and McCain moved the campaign to more Democratic-friendly states, as McCain maintained a comfortable polling lead in Missouri. Similar hypothetical general match-up polls taken between McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton, however, showed Clinton always leading in Missouri.

A record 2.9 million Missourians, or 69% of eligible voters, cast their ballots in the general election, about 200,000 more than the previous record in the 2004 election.

On Election Day, John McCain clung to a tiny lead, with absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted. By Wednesday, November 19, McCain led President-elect Obama by 3903 votes, or approximately 0.14% of the total popular vote in Missouri. CNN called the state for McCain that day. The 2008 presidential election was the second time since the 1956 election, when Missouri chose Adlai Stevenson over Dwight Eisenhower, that it has failed to be a bellwether state . Missouri was, however, the closest state of the 2008 election.

The Democratic base of Missouri rests in its two largest cities in the west and east – Kansas City and St. Louis, respectively. Obama did extremely well here, winning 83.55% of the vote in St. Louis City and 78.4% in Kansas City. Obama was already a familiar face to St. Louis-area voters, since the St. Louis metro area spills into Illinois. McCain narrowly won the areas in Jackson County outside Kansas City with 49.9% to Obama's 48.8%, but Obama carried the county with 62.14% of the vote due to his strong performance in Kansas City. These two counties, combined with highly affluent and suburban St. Louis County (where he also won 59.50% of the vote), gave him a 300,000 margin over McCain. Obama was also able to carry Boone County, home to the large college town of Columbia (Missouri's fifth-largest city and home of the state's flagship University of Missouri campus), and Jefferson County, which consists of the southern St. Louis suburbs such as Arnold and Festus. George W. Bush narrowly won Jefferson County in 2004 over John Kerry.

However, Obama was unable to substantially improve on Kerry's performance in rural Missouri, which is largely responsible for Missouri's Republican tilt. During the 2008 Missouri Democratic Primary, every rural county in Missouri (with the exception of Nodaway County, home of Northwest Missouri State University in Maryville in Northwestern Missouri), strongly backed Hillary Clinton, often by more than two-to-one margins. Many, if not all, of these counties that Clinton won in the Missouri Primary ended up voting for McCain in the general election.

Obama lost by an almost two-to-one margin in Southwest Missouri, a Republican stronghold for the better part of a century. This region is entrenched in the Bible Belt and embedded with deep pockets of social conservatives that includes Springfield and Joplin. Even Bill Clinton could not win Southwest Missouri in 1992 despite the fact that he won the state by double digits. Rural Northern Missouri, which Bill Clinton did win, voted against Obama by a three-to-two margin. Obama also lost much of rural Southeast Missouri. Unlike Northern and Southwest Missouri, Southeast Missouri, which strongly backed Bill Clinton both times, is more Democratic at the local and state levels. The region takes in the Lead Belt, the Bootheel and the Ozark Plateau and includes the largest city of Cape Girardeau, a booming college town but also a conservative, upper-middle class community that votes overwhelmingly Republican. Southeast Missouri is socially conservative but economically liberal, consistently electing Democrats at the local and state levels. While Obama ran even in the area southwest of St. Louis, he did worse than John Kerry in the Bootheel. Obama was, however, able to pick up two counties in Southeast Missouri: Washington County (by a margin of five votes) and Iron County. Both counties are predominantly rural and White but are some of the most impoverished counties in the state that are controlled by Democrats at the local and state levels. Both counties gave Hillary Clinton over 70% of the vote in the Missouri Primary as well.

Obama was allowed to request a recount under state law since preliminary results showed a difference of less than 1% of the votes. The request would have had to be granted by the state. However, since Obama already won the election, there had been no indications to suggest that he would request a recount. He ultimately did not request one.

During the same election, Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon defeated U.S. Representative Kenny Hulshof in a landslide for the Governor's Mansion. Incumbent Republican Governor Matt Blunt, who was at the time one of the least popular governors in the nation,^{[citation needed]} announced that he would not seek a second term. Nixon performed extremely well in rural Missouri and clinched 58.40% of the total statewide vote compared to Hulshof's 39.49% to become Governor of Missouri. Republicans were, however, able to hold on to the U.S. House seat in Missouri's 9th Congressional District that was vacated by Hulshof in his unsuccessful gubernatorial bid. Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer narrowly defeated Democrat Judy Baker by less than 3 percentage points. The DCCC has indicated that it will heavily target this seat in 2010. At the state level, Democrats picked up three seats in the Missouri House of Representatives but Republicans expanded their majority in the Missouri Senate, picking up three seats here. Furthermore, upon the 2008 election, Democrats control all statewide offices but one – Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder is a Republican. Democrats held on to the office of Attorney General that was vacated by Governor Jay Nixon; Democrat Chris Koster defeated Republican Mike Gibbons 52.83% to 47.17%. Democrats also picked up the office of State Treasurer that was vacated by Republican Sarah Steelman in her unsuccessful bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Democrat Clint Zweifel defeated Republican Brad Lager 50.47% to 47.14%.

Results

United States presidential election in Missouri, 2008 as of November 18, 2008
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	1,445,814	49.43%	11
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	1,441,911	49.29%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	17,813	0.61%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	11,386	0.39%	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin	Darrell Castle	8,201	0.28%	0
	Green (write-in)	Cynthia McKinney	Rosa Clemente	80	0.00%	0
Totals				2,925,197	100.00%	11
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						66.1%

Results breakdown

By congressional district

John McCain carried six of the state’s nine congressional districts, including one district held by a Democrat.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	19.38%	79.70%	William Lacy Clay, Jr.
2nd	54.98%	44.04%	Todd Akin
3rd	39.06%	59.50%	Russ Carnahan
4th	60.58%	37.87%	Ike Skelton
5th	35.45%	63.47%	Emanuel Cleaver
6th	53.58%	44.67%	Sam Graves
7th	63.07%	35.39%	Roy Blunt
8th	61.92%	36.42%	Jo Ann Emerson
9th	54.77%	43.66%	Kenny Hulshof (110th Congress)
			Blaine Luetkemeyer (111th Congress)

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2008

Technically the voters of Missouri cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Missouri is allocated 11 electors because it has nine congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:

1. Willis Corbett
2. Scott Dickenson
3. Robert Haul
4. Ronny Margason
5. Cathy Owens
6. Ron Muck
7. Gene Hall
8. R. Mellene Schudy
9. Nadine Thurman
10. Paul Nahon
11. Jerry Dowell