Climate change: Difference between revisions
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|caption4=Fossil fuel related CO2 emissions compared to five of IPCC's emissions scenarios. The dips are related to global recessions. Data from [http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CC4QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Fipccreports%2Fsres%2Femission%2Fdata%2Fallscen.xls&rct=j&q=ipcc%20sres%20CO2%20emissions%20excel&ei=3driTeSRIYjXiAKUupC8Bg&usg=AFQjCNH0tbCc6eAG-9hIYHsIrCmk88UEvg&sig2=phb20XH_kZxuQ_AlT8wIbA&cad=rja%20 IPCC SRES scenarios]; [http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/co2Highlights.XLS Data spreadsheet included with International Energy Agency's "CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2010 – Highlights"]; and [http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpower Supplemental IEA data]. Image source: [[Skeptical Science]]}} |
|caption4=Fossil fuel related CO2 emissions compared to five of IPCC's emissions scenarios. The dips are related to global recessions. Data from [http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CC4QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipcc.ch%2Fipccreports%2Fsres%2Femission%2Fdata%2Fallscen.xls&rct=j&q=ipcc%20sres%20CO2%20emissions%20excel&ei=3driTeSRIYjXiAKUupC8Bg&usg=AFQjCNH0tbCc6eAG-9hIYHsIrCmk88UEvg&sig2=phb20XH_kZxuQ_AlT8wIbA&cad=rja%20 IPCC SRES scenarios]; [http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/co2Highlights.XLS Data spreadsheet included with International Energy Agency's "CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2010 – Highlights"]; and [http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpower Supplemental IEA data]. Image source: [[Skeptical Science]]}} |
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'''Global warming''' refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its related effects. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about |
'''Global warming''' refers to the rising [[Instrumental temperature record|average temperature]] of [[Earth]]'s atmosphere and oceans and its related effects. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about {{convert|0.8|C-change|F-change|1}} with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.<ref name = "AmericasClimateChoices-2011-FullReport" /> Warming of the [[climate system]] is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of [[greenhouse gas|greenhouse gases]] produced by human activities such as [[deforestation]] and burning [[fossil fuel]].<ref name="AR4 SYR 1.1" /><ref name = "IPCC-VeryLikely" /><ref name="AR4 SYR 2.4" /><ref name = "AmericasClimateChoices-2010-SciPanel" />. These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries. <ref name="SciAcademy Statement" />{{Cref2|A}} |
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[[Climate model]] projections are summarized in the 2007 [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] (AR4) by the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further {{convert|1.5|to|1.9|C-change|F-change|1}} for their lowest [[Special Report on Emissions Scenarios|emissions scenario]] and {{convert|3.4|to|6.1|C-change|F-change|1}} for their highest.<ref name="IPCC-AR4-WG1-10.5.3"/> The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing [[climate sensitivity|sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations]].<ref>{{cite journal|last=Schneider Von Deimling|first=Thomas|coauthors=Held, Ganopolski, Rahmstorf|title=Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate|journal=Climate Dynamics|year=2006|url=http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.172.3264&rep=rep1&type=pdf|accessdate=20 July 2011}}</ref><ref name="IPCC-AR4-WGI-10.5" /> |
[[Climate model]] projections are summarized in the 2007 [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] (AR4) by the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further {{convert|1.5|to|1.9|C-change|F-change|1}} for their lowest [[Special Report on Emissions Scenarios|emissions scenario]] and {{convert|3.4|to|6.1|C-change|F-change|1}} for their highest.<ref name="IPCC-AR4-WG1-10.5.3"/> The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing [[climate sensitivity|sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations]].<ref>{{cite journal|last=Schneider Von Deimling|first=Thomas|coauthors=Held, Ganopolski, Rahmstorf|title=Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate|journal=Climate Dynamics|year=2006|url=http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.172.3264&rep=rep1&type=pdf|accessdate=20 July 2011}}</ref><ref name="IPCC-AR4-WGI-10.5" /> |
Revision as of 22:26, 4 October 2011
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its related effects. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.[2] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel.[3][4][5][6]. These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries. [7][A]
Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.5 to 1.9 °C (2.7 to 3.4 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 3.4 to 6.1 °C (6.1 to 11.0 °F) for their highest.[8] The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[9][10]
An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and a probable expansion of subtropical deserts.[11] Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain.[12] In a 4 °C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.[13]
Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. The main international mitigation effort is the Kyoto Protocol, which seeks to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference".[14] As of May 2010, 192 states had ratified the protocol.[15] The only members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treaty but have not yet ratified it are the USA and Afghanistan.
Observed temperature changes
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png/220px-2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png)
Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. [16][17][18] The Earth's average surface temperature, expressed as a linear trend, rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.[19] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.[20]
Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for the planet's warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 19th century, exceeding 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[21][22][23] Current estimates by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest year, however, “the error estimate for individual years ... is at least ten times larger than the differences between these three years.”[24] The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) statement on the status of the global climate in 2010 explains that, “The 2010 nominal value of +0.53 °C ranks just ahead of those of 2005 (+0.52 °C) and 1998 (+0.51 °C), although the differences between the three years are not statistically significant...”[25]
Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the past century occurred during that year.[26] Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.[27][28]
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).[29] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[30] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[31]
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.[32]
Initial causes of temperature changes (External forcings)
External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[33] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and at present are in an overall cooling trend which would be expected to lead towards an ice age, but the 20th century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures.[34]
Greenhouse gases
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[35]
Naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[36][C] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent.[37][38][39] Clouds also affect the radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[40] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[41][42][43][44] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.[45] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[46]
Over the last three decades of the 20th century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[47] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[48][49]: 71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. The two figures opposite show annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2005, including land-use change. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.[50] [51]: 289
Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.[52] In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced.[53][54] Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.[55] Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[56] This is an increase of 90–250% above the concentration in the year 1750.
The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with the ozone hole, i.e., the destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons.[57][58] Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.[59]
Particulates and soot
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ee/ShipTracks_MODIS_2005may11.jpg/220px-ShipTracks_MODIS_2005may11.jpg)
Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present.[60] The main cause of this dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes and human made pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO2 and aerosols—have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane.[61] Radiative forcing due to particulates is temporally limited due to wet deposition which causes them to have an atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in particulate concentrations will only delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide.[62]
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particulates have indirect effects on the radiation budget.[63] Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, known as the Twomey effect.[64] This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect.[65] Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of particulates represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[66]
Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[67] When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface.[68] The influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.[69]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Solar-cycle-data.png/220px-Solar-cycle-data.png)
Solar variation
Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes.[70] The effect of changes in solar forcing in recent decades is uncertain, but small, with some studies showing a slight cooling effect,[71] while others studies suggest a slight warming effect.[33][72][73][74]
Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the troposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool the stratosphere.[33] Radiosonde (weather balloon) data show the stratosphere has cooled over the period since observations began (1958), though there is greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record. Satellite observations, which have been available since 1979, also show cooling.[75]
A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.[76] Other research has found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays.[77][78] The influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.[79]
Studies in 2011 have indicated that solar activity may be slowing, and that the next solar cycle could be delayed. To what extent is not yet clear; Solar Cycle 25 is due to start in 2020, but may be delayed to 2022 or even longer. It is even possible that Sol could be heading towards another Maunder Minimum. While there is not yet a definitive link between solar sunspot activity and global temperatures, the scientists conducting the solar activity study believe that global greenhouse gas emissions would prevent any possible cold snap.[80]
Feedback
Feedback is a process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback increases the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it. Feedback is important in the study of global warming because it may amplify or diminish the effect of a particular process.
The main positive feedback in the climate system is the water vapor feedback. The main negative feedback is radiative cooling through the Stefan–Boltzmann law, which increases as the fourth power of temperature. Positive and negative feedbacks are not imposed as assumptions in the models, but are instead emergent properties that result from the interactions of basic dynamical and thermodynamic processes.
Imperfect understanding of feedbacks is a major cause of uncertainty and concern about global warming.[citation needed] A wide range of potential feedback process exist, such as Arctic methane release and ice-albedo feedback. Consequentially, potential tipping points may exist, which may have the potential to cause abrupt climate change.[81]
For example, the "emission scenarios" used by IPCC in its 2007 report primarily examined greenhouse gas emissions from human sources. In 2011, a joint study by NSIDC-(US) and NOAA-(US) calculated the additional greenhouse gas emissions that would emanate from melted and decomposing permafrost, even if policymakers attempt to reduce human emissions from the currently-unfolding A1FI scenario to the A1B scenario.[82] The team found that even at the much lower level of human emissions, permafrost thawing and decomposition would still result in 190 ± 64 Gt C of permafrost carbon being added to the atmosphere on top of the human sources. Importantly, the team made three extremely conservative assumptions: (1) that policymakers will embrace the A1B scenario instead of the currently-unfolding A1FI scenario, (2) that all of the carbon would be released as carbon dioxide instead of methane, which is more likely and over a 20 year lifetime has 72x the greenhouse warming power of CO2, and (3) their model did not project additional temperature rise caused by the release of these additional gases.[82][83] These very conservative permafrost carbon dioxide emissions are equivalent to about 1/2 of all carbon released from fossil fuel burning since the dawn of the Industrial Age,[84] and is enough to raise atmospheric concentrations by an additional 87 ± 29 ppm, beyond human emissions. Once initiated, permafrost carbon forcing (PCF) is irreversible, is strong compared to other global sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2, and due to thermal inertia will continue for many years even if atmospheric warming stops.[82] A great deal of this permafrost carbon is actually being released as highly flammable methane instead of carbon dioxide.[85] IPCC 2007's temperature projections did not take any of the permafrost carbon emissions into account and therefore underestimate the degree of expected climate change.[82][83]
Other research published in 2011 found that increased emissions of methane could instigate significant feedbacks that amplify the warming attributable to the methane alone. The researchers found that a 2.5-fold increase in methane emissions would cause indirect effects that increase the warming 250% above that of the methane alone. For a 5.2-fold increase, the indirect effects would be 400% of the warming from the methane alone.[86]
Climate models
A climate model is a computerized representation of the five components of the climate system: Atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land surface, and biosphere.[87] Such models are based on physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. There can be components which represent air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; ocean temperature, salt content, and circulation; ice cover on land and sea; the transfer of heat and moisture from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere; chemical and biological processes; and others.[88]
Although researchers attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. Results from models can also vary due to different greenhouse gas inputs and the model's climate sensitivity. For example, the uncertainty in IPCC's 2007 projections is caused by (1) the use of multiple models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations, (2) the use of differing estimates of humanities' future greenhouse gas emissions, (3) any additional emissions from climate feedbacks that were not included in the models IPCC used to prepare its report, i.e., greenhouse gas releases from permafrost.[82]
The models do not assume the climate will warm due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Instead the models predict how greenhouse gases will interact with radiative transfer and other physical processes. One of the mathematical results of these complex equations is a prediction whether warming or cooling will occur.[89]
Recent research has called special attention to the need to refine models with respect to the effect of clouds[90] and the carbon cycle.[91][92][93]
Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.[33]
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.[94]
Current climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate.[46] Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.[95] Precipitation increased proportional to atmospheric humidity, and hence significantly faster than current global climate models predict.[96][97]
Attribution and expected effects
Global warming may be detected in natural, ecological or social systems as a change having statistical significance.[3][failed verification] Attribution of these changes e.g., to natural or human activities, is the next step following detection.[5]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e5/Glacier_Mass_Balance.png/220px-Glacier_Mass_Balance.png)
Natural systems
Global warming has been detected in a number of systems. Some of these changes, e.g., based on the instrumental temperature record, have been described in the section on temperature changes. Rising sea levels and observed decreases in snow and ice extent are consistent with warming.[18] Most of the increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is, with high probability,[D] attributable to human-induced changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.[98]
Even with current policies to reduce emissions, global emissions are still expected to continue to grow over the coming decades.[99] Over the course of the 21st century, increases in emissions at or above their current rate would very likely induce changes in the climate system larger than those observed in the 20th century.
In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, across a range of future emission scenarios, model-based estimates of sea level rise for the end of the 21st century (the year 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999) range from 0.18 to 0.59 m. These estimates, however, were not given a likelihood due to a lack of scientific understanding, nor was an upper bound given for sea level rise. Over the course of centuries to millennia, the melting of ice sheets could result in sea level rise of 4–6 m or more.[100]
Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.[99] Snow cover area and sea ice extent are expected to decrease, with the Arctic expected to be largely ice-free in September by 2037.[101] The frequency of hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation will very likely increase.
Ecological systems
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[18] Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs.[99] It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures.[102] Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.[103]
Species migration
In 2010, a gray whale was found in the Mediterranean Sea, even though the species had not been seen in the North Atlantic Ocean since the 18th century. The whale is thought to have migrated from the Pacific Ocean via the Arctic. Climate Change & European Marine Ecosystem Research (CLAMER) has also reported that the Neodenticula seminae alga has been found in the North Atlantic, where it had gone extinct nearly 800,000 years ago. The alga has drifted from the Pacific Ocean through the Arctic, following the reduction in polar ice.[104]
In the Siberian sub-arctic, species migration is contributing to another warming albedo-feedback, as needle-shedding larch trees are being replaced with dark-foliage evergreen conifers which can absorb some of the solar radiation that previously reflected off the snowpack beneath the forest canopy.[105][106]
Social systems
Vulnerability of human societies to climate change mainly lies in the effects of extreme weather events rather than gradual climate change.[107] Impacts of climate change so far include adverse effects on small islands,[108] adverse effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude areas,[109] and small but discernable effects on human health.[110] Over the 21st century, climate change is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.[111]
Future warming of around 3 °C (by 2100, relative to 1990–2000) could result in increased crop yields in mid- and high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yields could decline, increasing the risk of malnutrition.[108] A similar regional pattern of net benefits and costs could occur for economic (market-sector) effects.[110] Warming above 3 °C could result in crop yields falling in temperate regions, leading to a reduction in global food production.[112] Most economic studies suggest losses of world gross domestic product (GDP) for this magnitude of warming.[113][114]
Some areas of the world would start to surpass the wet-bulb temperature limit of human survivability with global warming of about 6.7 °C (12 °F) while a warming of 11.7 °C (21 °F) would put half of the world's population in an uninhabitable environment.[115][116] In practice the survivable limit of global warming in these areas is probably lower and in practice some areas may experience lethal wet bulb tempatures even earlier, because this study conservatively projected the survival limit for persons who are out of the sun, in gale-force winds, doused with water, wearing no clothing, and not working.[116]
Responses to global warming
Mitigation
Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change. The IPCC defines mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the atmosphere.[117] Many countries, both developing and developed, are aiming to use cleaner, less polluting, technologies.[49]: 192 Use of these technologies aids mitigation and could result in substantial reductions in CO2 emissions. Policies include targets for emissions reductions, increased use of renewable energy, and increased energy efficiency. Studies indicate substantial potential for future reductions in emissions.[118]
To limit warming to the lower range in the overall IPCC's "Summary Report for Policymakers"[119] means adopting policies that will limit emissions to one of the significantly different scenarios described in the full report.[120] This will become more and more difficult, since each year of high emissions will require even more drastic measures in later years to stabilize at a desired atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, and energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 were the highest in history, breaking the prior record set in 2008.[121]
Since even in the most optimistic scenario, fossil fuels are going to be used for years to come, mitigation may also involve carbon capture and storage, a process that traps CO2 produced by factories and gas or coal power stations and then stores it, usually underground.[122]
Adaptation
Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, e.g., by local or national government, or spontaneous, i.e., done privately without government intervention.[123] The ability to adapt is closely linked to social and economic development.[118] Even societies with high capacities to adapt are still vulnerable to climate change. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis. The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.
Geoengineering
Another policy response is geoengineering of the climate.[124] Geoengineering encompasses a range of techniques to remove CO
2 from the atmosphere or to reflect incoming sunlight.[124] Little is known about the effectiveness, costs or potential side effects of geoengineering options.[124] As most geoengineering techniques would affect the entire globe, deployment would likely require global public acceptance and an adequate global legal and regulatory framework, as well as significant further scientific research.[125]
Views on global warming
There are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate change should be.[126] [127] These competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.[128]
Global warming controversy
The global warming controversy refers to a variety of disputes, significantly more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature,[129][130] regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and whether the increase is wholly or partially an artifact of poor measurements. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be.
In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view,[131][132] though a few organisations hold non-committal positions.
Politics
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/64/Stabilizing_the_atmospheric_concentration_of_carbon_dioxide_at_a_constant_level_would_require_emissions_to_be_effectively_eliminated_%28vertical%29.png/220px-Stabilizing_the_atmospheric_concentration_of_carbon_dioxide_at_a_constant_level_would_require_emissions_to_be_effectively_eliminated_%28vertical%29.png)
2, emissions worldwide would need to be dramatically reduced from their present level.[134]
Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[135] The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system.[136] As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.
The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions have risen.[127][137] During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133 developing nations)[138]: 4 pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions.[139] This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.[51]: 290 This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention,[51]: 290 which entered into legal effect in 2005.[140]
In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012.[140] US President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy."[138]: 5
At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord.[141] Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010)[142]: 9 aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.[143] A preliminary assessment published in November 2010 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests a possible "emissions gap" between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary to have a "likely" (greater than 66% probability) chance of meeting the 2 °C objective.[142]: 10–14 The UNEP assessment takes the 2 °C objective as being measured against the pre-industrial global mean temperature level. To having a likely chance of meeting the 2 °C objective, assessed studies generally indicated the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substantial declines in emissions thereafter.
The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.[144]
Public opinion
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/Public_opinion_on_falsified_global_warming_research.png/220px-Public_opinion_on_falsified_global_warming_research.png)
In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population was unaware of global warming, with people in developing countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite belief.[146] In the Western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University said that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the Atlantic", adding, "The debate in Europe is about what action needs to be taken, while many in the U.S. still debate whether climate change is happening."[147][148] A 2010 poll by the Office of National Statistics found that 75% of UK respondents were at least "fairly convinced" that the world's climate is changing, compared to 87% in a similar survey in 2006.[149] A January 2011 ICM poll in the UK found 83% of respondents viewed climate change as a current or imminent threat, while 14% said it was no threat. Opinion was unchanged from an August 2009 poll asking the same question, though there had been a slight polarisation of opposing views.[150]
A survey in October, 2009 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed decreasing public perception in the United States that global warming was a serious problem. All political persuasions showed reduced concern with lowest concern among Republicans, only 35% of whom considered there to be solid evidence of global warming.[151] The cause of this marked difference in public opinion between the United States and the global public is uncertain but the hypothesis has been advanced that clearer communication by scientists both directly and through the media would be helpful in adequately informing the American public of the scientific consensus and the basis for it.[152] The U.S. public appears to be unaware of the extent of scientific consensus regarding the issue, with 59% believing that scientists disagree "significantly" on global warming.[153]
By 2010, with 111 countries surveyed, Gallup determined that there was a substantial decrease in the number of Americans and Europeans who viewed Global Warming as a serious threat. In the United States, a little over half the population (53%) now viewed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families; a number 10 percentage points below the 2008 poll (63%). Latin America had the biggest rise in concern, with 73% saying global warming was a serious threat to their families.[154] That global poll also found that people are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities than to natural causes, except in the USA where nearly half (47%) of the population attributed global warming to natural causes.[155]
On the other hand, in May 2011 a joint poll by Yale and George Mason Universities found that nearly half the people in the USA (47%) attribute global warming to human activities, compared to 36% blaming it on natural causes. Only 5% of the 35% who were "disengaged", "doubtful", or "dismissive" of global warming were aware that 97% of publishing US climate scientists agree global warming is happening and is primarily caused by humans.[156]
Researchers at the University of Michigan have found that the public's belief as to the causes of global warming depends on the wording choice used in the polls.[157]
In the United States, according to the Public Policy Institute of California's (PPIC) eleventh annual survey on environmental policy issues, 75% said they believe global warming is a very serious or somewhat serious threat to the economy and quality of life in California.[158]
A July 2011 Rasmussen Reports poll found that 69% of adults in the USA believe it is at least somewhat likely that some scientists have falsified global warming research.[159]
A September 2011 Angus Reid Public Opinion poll found that Britons (43%) are less likely than Americans (49%) or Canadians (52%) to say that "global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities." The same poll found that 20% of Americans, 20% of Britons and 14% of Canadians think "global warming is a theory that has not yet been proven."[160]
Other views
Most scientists agree that humans are contributing to observed climate change.[48][161] National science academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions.[162] However, some scientists and non-scientists question aspects of climate-change science.[163][164][161]
Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[165][166][167][168] In the finance industry, Deutsche Bank has set up an institutional climate change investment division (DBCCA),[169] which has commissioned and published research[170] on the issues and debate surrounding global warming.[171] Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.[172] Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years,[173] or called for policies to reduce global warming.[174]
Etymology
The term global warming was probably first used in its modern sense on 8 August 1975 in a science paper by Wally Broecker in the journal Science called "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?".[175][176][177] Broecker's choice of words was new and represented a significant recognition that the climate was warming; previously the phrasing used by scientists was "inadvertent climate modification," because while it was recognized humans could change the climate, no one was sure which direction it was going.[178] The National Academy of Sciences first used global warming in a 1979 paper called the Charney Report, it said: "if carbon dioxide continues to increase, [we find] no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible."[179] The report made a distinction between referring to surface temperature changes as global warming, while referring to other changes caused by increased CO2 as climate change.[178]
Global warming became more widely popular after 1988 when NASA climate scientist James Hansen used the term in a testimony to Congress.[178] He said: "global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming."[180] His testimony was widely reported and afterward global warming was commonly used by the press and in public discourse.[178]
See also
Notes
- ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, the People's Republic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK.[181] The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, European Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience Teachers, National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological Organization.
- ^ Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature. These error bounds are constructed with a 90% confidence interval.
- ^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F) compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).[36]
- ^ In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, this attribution is given a probability of greater than 90%, based on expert judgement.[182] According to the US National Research Council Report – Understanding and Responding to Climate Change – published in 2008, "[most] scientists agree that the warming in recent decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."[48]
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The average temperature of the Earth's surface increased by about 1.4°F (0.8°C) over the past 100 years, with about 1.0°F (0.6°C) of this warming occurring over just the past three decades
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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level
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Three different approaches are used to describe uncertainties each with a distinct form of language. * * * Where uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%; extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%......"
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(p1) ... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * (p21-22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.
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Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner
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|doi=10.1038/nature06949
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70598-1). - ^ Section 2.5.1.4: Emissions and Other Results of the SRES Scenarios, in IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007). Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; and Meyer, L.A. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4.
{{cite book}}
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, in IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007). Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; and Meyer, L.A. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4.
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{{citation}}
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- ^ Summary for Policymakers,[page needed] in IPCC AR4 WG1 (2007). Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; Tignor, M.; and Miller, H.L. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70596-7). - ^ Ramanathan, V.; Chung, C; Kim, D; Bettge, T; Buja, L; Kiehl, JT; Washington, WM; Fu, Q; Sikka, DR (2005). "Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 102 (15): 5326–5333. Bibcode:2005PNAS..102.5326R. doi:10.1073/pnas.0500656102. PMC 552786. PMID 15749818.
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- ^ Lockwood, Mike; Fröhlich, Claus (8 June 2008). "Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale". Proc. R. Soc. A. 464 (2094): 1367–85. Bibcode:2008RSPSA.464.1367L. doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.0347.
- ^ Duffy, Santer and Wigley, "Solar variability does not explain late-20th-century warming" Physics Today, January, 2009, pp 48–49. The authors respond to recent assertions by Nicola Scafetta and Bruce West that solar forcing "might account" for up to about half of 20th-century warming.
- ^ Hansen, J. (2002). "Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations". Journal of Geophysical Research. 107 (D18): 4347. Bibcode:2002JGRD..107.4347H. doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.
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Our results show that the observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified
{{cite journal}}
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suggested) (help) - ^ T Sloan and A W Wolfendale (2008). "Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover". Environ. Res. Lett. 3 (2): 024001. Bibcode:2008ERL.....3d4001S. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/2/024001.
- ^ Pierce, J.R. and P.J. Adams (2009). "Can cosmic rays affect cloud condensation nuclei by altering new particle formation rates?". Geophysical Research Letters. 36 (9): L09820. Bibcode:2009GeoRL..3609820P. doi:10.1029/2009GL037946.
- ^ Jaggard, Victoria. "Sun Headed Into Hibernation, Solar Studies Predict." National Geographic News, 14 June 2011.
- ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with
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instead. - ^ a b c d e KEVIN SCHAEFER, TINGJUN ZHANG, LORI BRUHWILER, ANDREW P. BARRETT (2011). "Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming". Tellus Series B. 63 (2): 165–180. Bibcode:2011TellB..63..165S. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ a b Romm, Joe (17 February 2011). "NSIDC bombshell: Thawing permafrost feedback will turn Arctic from carbon sink to source in the 2020s, releasing 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100". ThinkProgress. Retrieved 27 July 2011.
- ^ "Thawing permafrost likely will accelerate global warming, study finds". Sciencedaily.com. 17 February 2011. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x. Retrieved 27 July 2011.
- ^ Hunting for methane with Katey Walter Anthony. Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Marketing and Communications. Retrieved 31 May 2011.
- ^ Isaksen, Ivar S. A. (20 April 2011). "Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions" (PDF). Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 25 (2). Bibcode:2011GBioC..25B2002I. doi:10.1029/2010GB003845.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - ^ Glossary,[page needed] in IPCC AR4 SYR (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. ISBN 92-9169-122-4.
{{cite book}}
: Unknown parameter|editors=
ignored (|editor=
suggested) (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ Chapter 7: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry, in IPCC AR4 WG1 (2007). Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; Tignor, M.; and Miller, H.L. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70596-7). - ^ Hansen, James (2000). "Climatic Change: Understanding Global Warming". In Robert Lanza (ed.). One World: The Health & Survival of the Human Species in the 21st century. Health Press (New Mexico). pp. 173–190. ISBN 0-929173-33-3. Retrieved 18 August 2007.
- ^ Section 7.2.2: Cloud Processes and Feedbacks, in IPCC TAR WG1 (2001). Houghton, J.T.; Ding, Y.; Griggs, D.J.; Noguer, M.; van der Linden, P.J.; Dai, X.; Maskell, K.; and Johnson, C.A. (ed.). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80767-0.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 0-521-01495-6). - ^ Torn, Margaret (2006). "Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming". Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (10): L10703. Bibcode:2006GeoRL..3310703T. doi:10.1029/2005GL025540. L10703. Retrieved 4 March 2007.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - ^ Harte, John (2006). "Shifts in plant dominance control carbon-cycle responses to experimental warming and widespread drought". Environmental Research Letters. 1 (1): 014001. Bibcode:2006ERL.....1a4001H. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/1/1/014001. 014001. Retrieved 2 May 2007.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - ^ Scheffer, Marten (2006). "Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (10): L10702. Bibcode:2006GeoRL..3310702S. doi:10.1029/2005gl025044. Retrieved 4 May 2007.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - ^ Chapter 8, Climate Models and Their Evaluation, in IPCC AR4 WG1 (2007). Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; Tignor, M.; and Miller, H.L. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70596-7). - ^ Stroeve, J.; et al. (2007). "Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast". Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9): L09501. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3409501S. doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.
{{cite journal}}
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(help) - ^ Wentz,FJ; et al. (2007). "How Much More Rain Will Global Warming Bring?". Science. 317 (5835): 233–5. Bibcode:2007Sci...317..233W. doi:10.1126/science.1140746. PMID 17540863.
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(help) - ^ Liepert, Beate G. (2009). "Do Models and Observations Disagree on the Rainfall Response to Global Warming?". Journal of Climate. 22 (11): 3156. Bibcode:2009JCli...22.3156L. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2472.1.
Recently analyzed satellite-derived global precipitation datasets from 1987 to 2006 indicate an increase in global-mean precipitation of 1.1%–1.4% decade−1. This trend corresponds to a hydrological sensitivity (HS) of 7% K−1 of global warming, which is close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate expected from the increase in saturation water vapor pressure with temperature. Analysis of two available global ocean evaporation datasets confirms this observed intensification of the atmospheric water cycle. The observed hydrological sensitivity over the past 20-yr period is higher by a factor of 5 than the average HS of 1.4% K−1 simulated in state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models for the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - ^ Summary for Policymakers: Causes of change, in IPCC AR4 SYR (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. ISBN 92-9169-122-4.
{{cite book}}
: Unknown parameter|editors=
ignored (|editor=
suggested) (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ a b c Summary for Policymakers, Section 3: Projected climate change and its impacts, in IPCC AR4 SYR (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. ISBN 92-9169-122-4.
{{cite book}}
: Unknown parameter|editors=
ignored (|editor=
suggested) (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ Summary for Policymakers: Magnitudes of impact, in IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4). - ^ Wang, M (2009). "A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?". Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 (7). Bibcode:2009GeoRL..3607502W. doi:10.1029/2009GL037820. Retrieved 2 May 2011.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - ^ Executive Summary, in IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4), p. 213. - ^ Section 19.3.4: Ecosystems and biodiversity, in IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4). - ^ Tuesday, 26 July 2011 (27 June 2011). "Plankton species reappears (after being extinct for 800,000 years)". Mother Nature Network. Retrieved 27 July 2011.
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: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ Shuman, Jacquelyn Kremper (2011). "Sensitivity of Siberian Larch forests to climate change". Global Change Biology. 17 (7): 2370–2384. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02417.x.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - ^ "Russian Boreal Forests Undergoing Vegetation Change, Study Shows".
- ^ Industry, settlement and society, in IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4). - ^ a b Section 19.3.3: Regional vulnerabilities, in IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4). - ^ Section 19.3.7: Update on ‘Reasons for Concern’, in IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4). - ^ a b Table 19.1, in IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4). - ^ Section 5.2: Key vulnerabilities, impacts and risks – long-term perspectives, in IPCC AR4 SYR (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. ISBN 92-9169-122-4.
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: Unknown parameter|editors=
ignored (|editor=
suggested) (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ Section 19.3.2.1: Agriculture, in IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4). - ^ Figure 20.3, in IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4). - ^ Stern, N. (2006). "6.2 What existing models calculate and include". 6 Economic modelling of climate-change impacts (PDF). Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change (pre-publication edition). HM Treasury website. pp. 147–148. Retrieved 28 April 2011.
- ^ "Global warming: Future temperatures could exceed livable limits, researchers find". Sciencedaily.com. 5 May 2010. doi:10.1073/pnas.0913352107. Retrieved 27 July 2011.
- ^ a b http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.full Published online before print 3 May 2010, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0913352107 PNAS 25 May 2010 vol. 107 no. 21 9552–9555
- ^ Glossary J-P, in IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007). Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; and Meyer, L.A. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70598-1). - ^ a b Section 4: Adaptation and mitigation options, in IPCC AR4 SYR (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. ISBN 92-9169-122-4.
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ignored (|editor=
suggested) (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^
Summary for Policymakers, in
IPCC AR4 WG1 (2007). Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; Tignor, M.; and Miller, H.L. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70596-7). - ^ National Academy calls on nation to “substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions” starting ASAP | ThinkProgress
- ^ http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1959
- ^ Robinson, Simon (22 January 2010). "How to reduce Carbon emmissions: Capture and Store It?". Time. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
- ^ Section 18.2.3: Adaptation Types and Forms, in IPCC TAR WG2 (2001). McCarthy, J. J.; Canziani, O. F.; Leary, N. A.; Dokken, D. J.; and White, K. S. (ed.). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80768-9.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 0-521-01500-6). - ^ a b c Chapter 11: Executive summary – Unconventional options, in IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007). Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; and Meyer, L.A. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70598-1). - ^ "Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty". The Royal Society. 1 September 2009. Retrieved 26 February 2011.
- ^ Equity and Social Considerations, p. 87 in IPCC SAR WG3 (1995). Bruce, J.P.; Lee, H.; and Haites, E.F. (ed.). Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (PDF). Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-56051-9.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 0-521-56854-4). - ^ a b Executive summary, in IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007). Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; and Meyer, L.A. (ed.). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 978-0-521-70598-1. - ^ Equity and Social Considerations, p. 83 in IPCC SAR WG3 (1995). Bruce, J.P.; Lee, H.; and Haites, E.F. (ed.). Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (PDF). Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-56051-9.
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) (pb: 0-521-56854-4). - ^ Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with
|doi= 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001
instead. - ^ Oreskes, Naomi; Conway, Erik. Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming (first ed.). Bloomsbury Press. ISBN 978-1-596-91610-4.
- ^ Julie Brigham-Grette; et al. (2006). "Petroleum Geologists' Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate" (PDF). Eos. 87 (36). Retrieved 23 January 2007.
The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming.
{{cite journal}}
: Explicit use of et al. in:|author=
(help); Unknown parameter|month=
ignored (help) - ^ DiMento, Joseph F. C.; Doughman, Pamela M. (2007). Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. The MIT Press. p. 68. ISBN 978-0-262-54193-0.
- ^ Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information, paragraph 4.1, p. 8, in IPCC SAR SYR (1996). Climate Change 1995: A report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. pdf.
- ^ Granger Morgan, M. (Lead Author), H. Dowlatabadi, M. Henrion, D. Keith, R. Lempert, S. McBride, M. Small and T. Wilbanks (Contributing Authors) (2009). "BOX NT.1 Summary of Climate Change Basics". Non-Technical Summary. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2: Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington D.C., USA.: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. p. 11. Retrieved 1 June 2011.
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:|author=
has generic name (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ UNFCCC (n.d.). "Essential Background". UNFCCC website. Retrieved 18 May 2010.
- ^ UNFCCC (n.d.). "Full text of the Convention, Article 2". UNFCCC website. Retrieved 18 May 2010.
- ^
Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi: 10.1073/pnas.0700609104, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with
|doi= 10.1073/pnas.0700609104
instead. - ^ a b Dessai, S. (2001). "The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?" (PDF). Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12. Tyndall Centre website. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
- ^ Grubb, M. (July–September 2003). "The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol" (PDF). World Economics. 4 (3): 144–145. Retrieved 25 March 2010.
- ^ a b UNFCCC (n.d.). "Kyoto Protocol". UNFCCC website. Retrieved 21 May 2011.
- ^ Müller, Benito (February 2010). Copenhagen 2009: Failure or final wake-up call for our leaders? EV 49 (PDF). Dr Benito Müller's web page on the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies website. p. i. ISBN 978190755046. Retrieved 18 May 2010.
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value: length (help)[dead link] - ^ a b United Nations Environment Programme (November 2010). "Technical summary". The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C? A preliminary assessment (advance copy) (PDF). UNEP website. Retrieved 11 May 2011. This publication is also available in e-book format
- ^ UNFCCC (30 March 2010). "Decision 2/CP. 15 Copenhagen Accord. In: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009. Addendum. Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its fifteenth session" (PDF). United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. p. 5. Retrieved 17 May 2010.
- ^ "Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention" (PDF). PRESIDENCIA DE LA REPÚBLICA, MÉXICO. 11 December 2010. p. 2. Retrieved 12 January 2011.
- ^ Rasmussen Reports 29–30 July 2011
- ^ Pelham, Brett (22 April 2009). "Awareness, Opinions About Global Warming Vary Worldwide". Gallup. Retrieved 14 July 2009.
- ^ "Summary of Findings". Little Consensus on Global Warming. Partisanship Drives Opinion. Pew Research Center. 12 July 2006. Retrieved 14 April 2007.
- ^ Crampton, Thomas (4 January 2007). "More in Europe worry about climate than in U.S., poll shows". The New York Times. Retrieved 9 June 2010.
- ^ "Public attitudes towards climate change and the impact on transport (January 2011 report)". Department for Transport. 2011. p. 8. Retrieved 3 February 2011.
- ^ Damian Carrington (31 January 2011). "Public belief in climate change weathers storm, poll shows | Environment | guardian.co.uk". The Guardian. UK. Retrieved 4 February 2011.
- ^ "Fewer Americans See Solid Evidence of Global Warming". Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. 22 October 2009. Retrieved 26 February 2011.
- ^ Robin Lloyd (23 February 2011). "Why Are Americans So Ill-Informed about Climate Change?: Scientists and journalists debate why Americans still resist the consensus among research organizations that humans are warming the globe". Scientific American. Nature America, Inc. Retrieved 26 February 2011.
- ^ [1] "59% Say Scientists Disagree 'Significantly' Over Global Warming," Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Pugliese, Anita (20 April 2011). "Fewer Americans, Europeans View Global Warming as a Threat". Gallup. Retrieved 22 April 2011.
- ^
Ray, Julie (22 April 2011). "Worldwide, Blame for Climate Change Falls on Humans". Gallup.Com. Retrieved 3 May 2011.
People nearly everywhere, including majorities in developed Asia and Latin America, are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities rather than natural causes. The U.S. is the exception, with nearly half (47%) – and the largest percentage in the world – attributing global warming to natural causes.
{{cite web}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
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suggested) (help) - ^ Leiserowitz, A. (2011). Global Warming's Six Americas, May 2011. New Haven CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication: Yale University and George Mason University.
{{cite book}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - ^ "It's All in a Name: 'Global Warming' Vs. 'Climate Change'".
- ^ IVN. "PPIC survey puts spotlight on environmental issues." 1 August 2011
- ^ Rasmussen Reports 29–30 July 2011
- ^ Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted 25 August through 2 September 2011
- ^ a b Royal Society (13 April 2005). "Letter from The Royal Society: A GUIDE TO FACTS AND FICTIONS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE: Misleading arguments: Many scientists do not think that climate change is a problem. Some scientists have signed petitions stating that climate change is not a problem.". Economic Affairs – Written Evidence. The Economics of Climate Change, the Second Report of the 2005–2006 session, produced by the UK Parliament House of Lords Economics Affairs Select Committee. UK Parliament website. Retrieved 9 July 2011. This document is also available in PDF format
- ^ Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias (Brazil), Royal Society of Canada, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Académie des Sciences (France), Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany), Indian National Science Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Science Council of Japan, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academy of Science of South Africa, Royal Society (United Kingdom), National Academy of Sciences (United States of America) (May 2009). "G8+5 Academies' joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future" (PDF). US National Academies website. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
{{cite web}}
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- ^ SEPP (n.d.). "Frequently Asked Questions About Climate Change". Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) website. Archived from the original on 11 May 2008. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
- ^ Begley, Sharon (13 August 2007). "The Truth About Denial". Newsweek. Retrieved 13 August 2007.
- ^ Adams, David (20 September 2006). "Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial". The Guardian. London. Retrieved 9 August 2007.
- ^ "Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics". MSNBC. 12 January 2007. Retrieved 2 May 2007.
- ^ Sandell, Clayton (3 January 2007). "Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming". ABC. Retrieved 27 April 2007.
- ^
"About DBCCA". Deutsche Bank: DB Climate Change Advisors. Frankfurt am Main: Deutsche Bank AG. 12 May 2010. Retrieved 5 November 2010.
DB Climate Change Advisors is the brand name for the institutional climate change investment division of Deutsche Asset Management, the asset management arm of Deutsche Bank AG.
- ^ "Investment Research". Deutsche Bank: DB Climate Change Advisors. Frankfurt am Main: Deutsche Bank AG. 2 November 2010. Retrieved 5 November 2010.
- ^
Carr, Mary-Elena (2010). "Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic Arguments" (PDF). DB Climate Change Advisors: Deutsche Bank Group. p. 55. Retrieved 5 November 2010.
The planet is warming and it is likely to continue to warm as a consequence of increased greenhouse gas emissions.
{{cite web}}
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- ^ Reuters (18 May 2007). "Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics". USA Today. Retrieved 21 January 2010.
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[Broecker's article is] the first of over 10,000 papers for this search term according to the ISI database of journal articles
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- ^ Wallace Broecker, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?" Science, vol. 189 (8 August 1975), 460–463.
- ^ a b c d Erik Conway. "What's in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change", NASA, 5 December 2008
- ^ National Academy of Science, Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Washington, D.C., 1979, p. vii.
- ^ U.S. Senate, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, "Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change, part 2" 100th Cong., 1st sess., 23 June 1988, p. 44.
- ^ "SCI/TECH | Science academies back Kyoto". BBC News. 17 May 2001. Retrieved 27 July 2011.
- ^ Introduction, in
IPCC AR4 SYR (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. ISBN 92-9169-122-4.
{{cite book}}
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Further reading
- Association of British Insurers (2005–06). Financial Risks of Climate Change (PDF).
{{cite book}}
: Check date values in:|year=
(help) - Ammann, Caspar (2007). "Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model" (PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 104 (10): 3713–3718. Bibcode:2007PNAS..104.3713A. doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. PMC 1810336. PMID 17360418.
Simulations with only natural forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Barnett, Tim P.; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP (17 November 2005). "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions" (abstract). Nature. 438 (7066): 303–309. Bibcode:2005Natur.438..303B. doi:10.1038/nature04141. PMID 16292301.
{{cite journal}}
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and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Behrenfeld, Michael J.; O'malley, RT; Siegel, DA; Mcclain, CR; Sarmiento, JL; Feldman, GC; Milligan, AJ; Falkowski, PG; Letelier, RM (7 December 2006). "Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity" (PDF). Nature. 444 (7120): 752–755. Bibcode:2006Natur.444..752B. doi:10.1038/nature05317. PMID 17151666.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|first1=
and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Choi, Onelack (May 2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S". Climate Change. 58 (1–2): 149–170. doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Dyurgerov, Mark B. (2005). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004 Snapshot (PDF). Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145.
{{cite book}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Emanuel, Kerry A. (4 August 2005). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years" (PDF). Nature. 436 (7051): 686–688. Bibcode:2005Natur.436..686E. doi:10.1038/nature03906. PMID 16056221.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|first1=
and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help) - Hansen, James (3 June 2005). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications" (PDF). Science. 308 (5727): 1431–1435. Bibcode:2005Sci...308.1431H. doi:10.1126/science.1110252. PMID 15860591.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe (21 February 2003). "Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science. 299 (5610): 1214–1217. Bibcode:2003Sci...299.1214H. doi:10.1126/science.1079601. PMID 12595688.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Hirsch, Tim (11 January 2006). "Plants revealed as methane source". BBC.
- Hoyt, Douglas V. (1993–11). "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992". Journal of Geophysical Research. 98 (A11): 18, 895–18, 906. Bibcode:1993JGR....9818895H. doi:10.1029/93JA01944.
{{cite journal}}
: Check date values in:|year=
(help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). "Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earth's Climate: The Greenhouse Catastrophe" (PDF). Biophysics. 46 (6).
- Kenneth, James P. (14 February 2003). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. American Geophysical Union.
{{cite book}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
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suggested) (help) - Keppler, Frank (18 January 2006). "Global Warming – The Blame Is not with the Plants". Max Planck Society.
{{cite news}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Lean, Judith L. (2002–12). "The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate". Geophysical Research Letters. 29 (24): 2224. Bibcode:2002GeoRL..29x..77L. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880.
{{cite journal}}
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requires|url=
(help); Check date values in:|date=
(help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Lerner, K. Lee (26 July 2006). Environmental issues: essential primary sources. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1-4144-0625-8.
{{cite book}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
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suggested) (help) - McKibben, Bill (2011). The Global Warming Reader. OR Books. ISBN 978-1-935928-36-2.
{{cite book}}
: External link in
(help)|title=
- Muscheler, Raimund, R; Joos, F; Müller, SA; Snowball, I (28 July 2005). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity?" (PDF). Nature. 436 (7012): 1084–1087. Bibcode:2005Natur.436E...3M. doi:10.1038/nature04045. PMID 16049429.
{{cite journal}}
: More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Oerlemans, J. (29 April 2005). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records" (PDF). Science. 308 (5722): 675–677. Bibcode:2005Sci...308..675O. doi:10.1126/science.1107046. PMID 15746388.
- Purse, Bethan V.; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M (February 2005). "Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe" (abstract). Nature Reviews Microbiology. 3 (2): 171–181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090. PMID 15685226.
{{cite journal}}
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and|first=
specified (help); More than one of|last1=
and|last=
specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Revkin, Andrew C (5 November 2005). "Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice". The New York Times.
- Royal Society (2005). "Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change". Retrieved 19 April 2009.
- Ruddiman, William F. (15 December 2005). Earth's Climate Past and Future. New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.
- Ruddiman, William F. (1 August 2005). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8.
- Solanki, Sami K.; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schüssler, M; Beer, J (23 October 2004). "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years" (PDF). Nature. 431 (7012): 1084–1087. Bibcode:2004Natur.431.1084S. doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID 15510145.
{{cite journal}}
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specified (help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Solanki, Sami K. (28 July 2005). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity? (Reply)" (PDF). Nature. 436 (7050): E4–E5. Bibcode:2005Natur.436E...4S. doi:10.1038/nature04046.
{{cite journal}}
: Unknown parameter|coauthors=
ignored (|author=
suggested) (help) - Sowers, Todd (10 February 2006). "Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH4 Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are Stable". Science. 311 (5762): 838–840. Bibcode:2006Sci...311..838S. doi:10.1126/science.1121235. PMID 16469923.
- Svensmark, Henrik (8 February 2007). "Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions". Proceedings of the Royal Society A. 463 (2078). FirstCite Early Online Publishing: 385–396. Bibcode:2007RSPSA.463..385S. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773.
{{cite journal}}
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{{cite journal}}
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suggested) (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - Wang, Y.-M. (20 May 2005). "Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713" (PDF). Astrophysical Journal. 625 (1): 522–538. Bibcode:2005ApJ...625..522W. doi:10.1086/429689.
{{cite journal}}
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External links
- Research
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies – Global change research
- NOAA State of the Climate Report – U.S. and global monthly state of the climate reports
- Climate Change at the National Academies — repository for reports
- Nature Reports Climate Change — free-access web resource
- Met Office: Climate change — UK National Weather Service
- Global Science and Technology Sources on the Internet — commented list of internet resources
- Educational Global Climate Modelling (EdGCM) — research-quality climate change simulator
- DISCOVER — satellite-based ocean and climate data since 1979 from NASA
- Global Warming Art — collection of figures and images
- Educational
- What Is Global Warming? — by National Geographic
- Global Climate Change Indicators – from NOAA
- NOAA Climate Services – from NOAA
- Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions — from NOAA
- Understanding Climate Change – Frequently Asked Questions — from UCAR
- Global Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth — from NASA's JPL and Caltech
- OurWorld 2.0 — from the United Nations University
- Pew Center on Global Climate Change — business and politics
- Best Effort Global Warming Trajectories – Wolfram Demonstrations Project — by Harvey Lam
- Koshland Science Museum – Global Warming Facts and Our Future — graphical introduction from National Academy of Sciences
- Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge — A video presentation by Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland
- Climate Change Indicators in the United States Report by United States Environmental Protection Agency, 80 pp.
- Global Warming
- Video on the effects of global warming on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea
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