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File:Eric Cantor headshot.JPG|[[United States House of Representatives|Representative]] '''[[Eric Cantor]]''' of [[Virginia]]<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1881286,00.html|title=Eric Cantor: Giving the GOP Back Its Mojo|date=February 23, 2009|accessdate=April 24, 2009|publisher=''[[Time magazine]]''|first=Jay|last=Newton-Small}}</ref>
File:Eric Cantor headshot.JPG|[[United States House of Representatives|Representative]] '''[[Eric Cantor]]''' of [[Virginia]]<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1881286,00.html|title=Eric Cantor: Giving the GOP Back Its Mojo|date=February 23, 2009|accessdate=April 24, 2009|publisher=''[[Time magazine]]''|first=Jay|last=Newton-Small}}</ref>

File:Richard Cheney 2005 official portrait.jpg|Former [[Vice President of the United States|Vice President] '''[[Dick Cheney]]'''<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.alternet.org/blogs/democracy/139984/is_dick_cheney_running_for_president_in_2012</ref><ref>http://www.usnews.com/blogs/peter-roff/2009/06/02/cheney-for-president-in-2012-republicans-have-no-one-else.html</ref><ref>http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/04/023409.php</ref><ref>http://www.socyberty.com/Politics/Dick-Cheney-Running-for-President-in-2012.751071</ref>


File:Gov charlie crist head.jpg|[[Governor of Florida|Governor]] '''[[Charlie Crist]]''' of [[Florida]]<ref name=cq/>
File:Gov charlie crist head.jpg|[[Governor of Florida|Governor]] '''[[Charlie Crist]]''' of [[Florida]]<ref name=cq/>

Revision as of 18:16, 4 June 2009

United States presidential election, 2012
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Projected electoral college map for the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections.[1]


The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next presidential election to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012 and will be the 57th quadrennial United States presidential election, in which the popularly elected presidential electors will select the President and the Vice President of the United States. Democratic President Barack Obama will be eligible to run for his second and final term during this election.

The 2012 presidential election will coincide with the United States Senate elections where 33 races will be occurring as well as the United States House of Representatives elections to elect the members for the 113th Congress. The election will also encompass eleven gubernatorial races as well as many state legislature races.

Electoral College changes

The 2010 Census will ultimately decide how the electoral map will be laid out for the 2012 election, but population projections based upon Census updates give an estimate of how the Electoral College vote apportionment will change. The Census occurs every ten years and is the basis for electoral vote reapportionment based on relative state population changes. According to a study based on the 2007 population estimates, the likely changes are as follows.[2]

States in blue represent states won by the Democratic Party in the 2008 presidential election, while names in red represent states won by the Republican Party. Based on the 2008 results, this would give the Democratic Party a net loss of seven electoral votes, for a national total of 358, and the Republican Party a net gain of seven electoral votes, for a national total of 180.

Possible effects of potential House of Representatives enlargement

If the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act of 2009 is passed by the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives and signed into law by President Barack Obama, the Electoral College may be expanded by the addition of a new elector. The act, which was passed by the Senate on February 26, 2009, and awaits consideration in the House, would replace the congressional delegate from the District of Columbia (at present Eleanor Holmes Norton, a Democrat) with a voting representative in the House for the 112th Congress. However, this would affect the Electoral College; adding a new congressional district in the state of Utah, for which a representative would be elected in 2010 to serve in the 112th Congress starting in 2011.

As the number of electors in the Electoral College is the number of United States senators (100) plus the number of voting members of the United States House of Representatives (435) plus a provision of a minimum number of electors for the District of Columbia pursuant to the Twenty-third Amendment to the United States Constitution (3), the addition of two voting House members, one of whom would already be represented in the Electoral College by provision of the Twenty-third Amendment, would likely increase the number of electors to 539, according to political analyst and statistician Nate Silver.[3]

Election changes

Republican Party Ohio plan

The Republican Party decided in 2008 that they would implement an Ohio plan that would divide the primary states in their nominating process into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states (in terms of the Electoral College) would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.[4]

Presidential conventions

Several cities have expressed interest or intent to bid for the 2012 conventions. Indianapolis,[5] Atlanta,[6] and San Antonio[7] have considered bidding for the 2012 Republican National Convention while Columbus and Dallas[8] have shown interest in bidding for the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

Considering previous national conventions, it is likely that parties will avoid their conventions coinciding with the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, which will run from July 27 to August 12. There has been a trend in recent cycles toward holding the conventions later in the summer.

Potential candidates

Potential Democratic Party candidates

As of June 2009, no person has announced his or her intention to run for the Democratic Party nomination. Incumbent President Barack Obama is serving his first term and will be eligible for reelection in 2012 barring death, incapacitation, or conviction on articles of impeachment.

Potential Republican Party candidates

See also: Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2012

As of June 2009, no person has announced his or her intention to run for the Republican Party nomination for President.

According to a recent poll comparing voters' preferences between President Obama and various possible Republican presidential candidates, the candidate closest to the president in popularity is Mike Huckabee, followed by Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (in that order), although all of these candidates are currently less popular than Obama.[9]

On March 5, 2009, Gingrich stated:

Callista and I will look seriously and we'll probably get our family totally engaged, including our two grandchildren, probably in January 2011. We'll look seriously at whether or not we think its necessary to do it. And if we think it's necessary we'll probably do it. And if it isn't necessary we probably won't do it."[10]

Potential candidate Mike Huckabee stated in an April 2009 interview:

"I think everybody assumes that I'm going to run again, but the honest answer is I don't know. I'm not being coy, because I might. But at this very moment, it is not on my mind and it's not something I sit around thinking about. I'm extraordinarily busy doing my show... I'm having a great time; I'm doing things I love to do. I'm raising money for pro-life groups... My PAC is busy helping candidates that are involved in races. My attitude is that I may never run again, and I'm OK with that. It may be that my role is to help other people through the PAC." [11]

Another potential candidate, Bobby Jindal, gave the Republican response to Barack Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress in February 2009.[12]

Potential Independent candidates

See also: Independent (politician)

Potential Constitution Party candidates

See also: Constitution Party (United States)

Potential Green Party candidates

See also: Green Party (United States)

Potential Libertarian Party candidates

See also: Libertarian Party (United States)

Potential Party for Socialism and Liberation candidates

See also: Party for Socialism and Liberation

Potential Prohibition Party candidates

See also: Prohibition Party

See also

References

  1. ^ Benson, Clark (2007-12-27). "Displacement of Katrina Victims Still Has Impact:Apportionment in 2010" (PDF). Polidata. Retrieved 2008-03-21.
  2. ^ Brace, Kimball (2008-12-22). "New Population Estimates Show Slight Changes For 2008 Congressional Apportionment, But Point to Major Changes for 2010" (PDF). ElectionDataServices. Retrieved 2008-12-25.
  3. ^ Silver, Nate (February 26, 2009). "FiveThirty ... Nine?". FiveThirtyEight.com.
  4. ^ "GOP Weighs Calendar Changes for 2012". Washington Post.
  5. ^ "Indiana Republicans look at 2012 convention bid". FOX 59. 8 September 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  6. ^ "Oxendine eyes 2012 convention in ATL". AJC.com. 4 September 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  7. ^ "State leaders support San Antonio run at 2012 GOP convention". San Antonio Business Journal. 12 September 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  8. ^ "Dallas officials consider bidding for 2012 political conventions". The Dallas Morning News. 31 August 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  9. ^ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_423.pdf
  10. ^ http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/local/article/NEWTGATER05_20090305-193603/222878/
  11. ^ http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/04/24/huckabee_on_2012.html
  12. ^ Bacon, Perry, Jr. (February 25, 2009). "In GOP Response, Jindal Blasts Stimulus". Washington Post. p. A08. Retrieved March 9, 2009.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  13. ^ a b Cadei, Emily (February 21, 2009). "Is a Future President In The Room As Governors Gather?". Congressional Quarterly. Retrieved March 18, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  14. ^ Newton-Small, Jay (February 23, 2009). "Eric Cantor: Giving the GOP Back Its Mojo". Time magazine. Retrieved April 24, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  15. ^ {{cite web|url=http://www.alternet.org/blogs/democracy/139984/is_dick_cheney_running_for_president_in_2012
  16. ^ http://www.usnews.com/blogs/peter-roff/2009/06/02/cheney-for-president-in-2012-republicans-have-no-one-else.html
  17. ^ http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/04/023409.php
  18. ^ http://www.socyberty.com/Politics/Dick-Cheney-Running-for-President-in-2012.751071
  19. ^ Cilizza, Chris (April 23, 2009). "John Ensign's Unapologetic Critique". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 24, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  20. ^ Mackowiak, Matt (April 25, 2009). "One Republican's View of What Lies Ahead". Congressional Quarterly. Retrieved April 26, 2009.
  21. ^ Cillizza, Chris (May 13, 2009). "Ensign Extends Iowa Trip". Washington Post. Retrieved May 13, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  22. ^ "Newt in 2012?". Washington Post. 7 November 2008. Retrieved 2 March 2009.
  23. ^ http://news.aol.com/article/gingrich-2012-white-house-run/428254
  24. ^ http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2009/04/10/newt-gingrichs-2012-presidential-campaign-rolls-along--now-its-card-check.html
  25. ^ http://www.newtforamerica.com/
  26. ^ http://www.redstatepolitics.com/2008/11/26/newt-gingrich-for-president-2012/
  27. ^ http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/local/article/NEWTGATER05_20090305-193603/222878/
  28. ^ http://weeklyworldnews.com/politics/7627/gingrich-2012/
  29. ^ "Huckabee: The 2012 race begins?". 4 March 2008.
  30. ^ "Louisiana Jindal for President in 2012?". Bayou Buzz. 17 October 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  31. ^ Bill Kauffman (21 April 2009). "The Republic Strikes Back". The American Conservative. Retrieved 04 April 2009. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)
  32. ^ Ambinder, Marc (23 January 2009). "Dirk Kempthorne in 2012?". The Atlantic. Retrieved 24 January 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  33. ^ "Will Palin run for president in 2012?". Scripps News. 27 October 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  34. ^ http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27568141
  35. ^ http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/palin-to-be-part-of-national-c.html
  36. ^ http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/palins-pac-first-step-to-2012.html
  37. ^ "Ron Paul might run again in 2012; should decide by mid-2009". Independent Political Report. 14 November 2008. Retrieved 16 November 2008.
  38. ^ "What's next for Tim Pawlenty?". Minnesota Post. 8 September 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  39. ^ "Toeing the hardline". 9 February 2009. Retrieved 8 March 2009.
  40. ^ "Romney ends bid, eyeing 2012". Politico. 7 February 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  41. ^ http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/romney
  42. ^ "GOP gears up for 2012". Politico. 9 November 2008. Retrieved 15 November 2008.
  43. ^ "Romney Tops Palin in 2012 Straw Poll". ABC News. 28 February 2009. Retrieved 02 March 2009. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)
  44. ^ http://www.newsweek.com/id/195088
  45. ^ "Fred Thompson in 2012?". The Weekly Standard. 29 August 2008. Retrieved 30 December 2008.
  46. ^ http://www.whowillwinthe2012election.com/wordpress/?p=48
  47. ^ "Not too soon to mull 2012". The Hill. 15 May 2007. Retrieved 3 January 2009.
  48. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Gunzburger, Ron (20 January 2009). "Presidency 2012". Politics1. Retrieved 20 January 2009.
  49. ^ "LP presidential candidate statement: Robert Milnes". Independent Political Report.
  50. ^ "Nader 'Maybe' Will Run for President in 2012". CNS News. 5 November 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  51. ^ "Jesse Ventura 2012?". MSNBC News. 2 September 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  52. ^ http://www.jello2012.com/
  53. ^ "Announcement of candidacy". Knapp 2012. 12 November 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  54. ^ "Join the Root Revolution 2012". ROOT for America. 28 December 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
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