2024 Pakistani general election: Difference between revisions
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'''General elections''' are scheduled to be held in [[Pakistan]] on 8 February 2024 to elect the members of the [[List of members of the 16th National Assembly of Pakistan|16th]] [[National Assembly of Pakistan|National Assembly]]. The detailed schedule was announced by [[Election Commission of Pakistan]] on 15 December 2023. |
'''General elections''' are scheduled to be held in [[Pakistan]] on 8 February 2024 to elect the members of the [[List of members of the 16th National Assembly of Pakistan|16th]] [[National Assembly of Pakistan|National Assembly]]. The detailed schedule was announced by [[Election Commission of Pakistan]] on 15 December 2023. |
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The two major parties are [[Pakistan Muslim League (N)]] (PML |
The two major parties are [[Pakistan Muslim League (N)]] (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister [[Nawaz Sharif]] and [[Pakistan Peoples Party]] (PPP), led by former [[Minister of Foreign Affairs (Pakistan)|Foreign Minister]] [[Bilawal Bhutto Zardari]]. |
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==Background== |
==Background== |
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Revision as of 18:54, 13 January 2024
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All 336 seats in the National Assembly 169 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||
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 Map of Pakistan with National Assembly constituencies | ||||||||||||||||
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General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan on 8 February 2024 to elect the members of the 16th National Assembly. The detailed schedule was announced by Election Commission of Pakistan on 15 December 2023.
The two major parties are Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.
Background
2018 elections
General elections were held in Pakistan on Wednesday 25 July 2018 after the completion of a five-year term by the outgoing government. At the national level, elections were held in 272 constituencies, each electing one member to the National Assembly. At the provincial level, elections were held in each of the four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA).
As a result of the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) became the single largest party at the national level both in terms of both popular vote and seats. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remained the largest party in Sindh and the newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) became the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, a hung parliament prevailed with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) emerging as the largest party in terms of directly elected seats by a narrow margin. However, following the joining of many independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form the government.
Opinion polling prior to campaigning had initially shown leads for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) over the PTI. However, from an 11-point lead, the PML-N's lead began to diminish in the final weeks of the campaign, with some polls close to the election showing PTI with a marginal but increasing lead. In the final result, the PTI made a net gain with 31.82% of the vote (its highest share of the vote since its foundation), while the PML-N made a net loss with 24.35%. In the lead-up to the elections, there had been allegations by some pre-poll rigging being conducted by the judiciary, the military and the intelligence agencies to sway the election results in favour of the PTI and against the PML-N.[1][2] The opposition to the winning parliamentary party alleged large-scale vote rigging and administrative malpractices.[3][4][5] However, Reuters polling suggested PML-N's lead had narrowed in the run-up to the elections, and that the party had suffered "blow after blow" which caused setbacks to any hopes of re-election.[6] Some[7] had termed the ruling PML-N "embattled... facing a number of desertion and corruption charges". Imran Khan proceeded to form the coalition government, announcing his cabinet soon after.[8] The newly formed coalition government included members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Pakistan Muslim League (Q).[9]
Regarding the voting process, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) outrightly rejected reports of rigging and stated that the elections were conducted fair and free.[10][11][12] A top electoral watchdog, Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), also said that the 2018 general elections in Pakistan had been "more transparent in some aspects" than the previous polls.[13] In its preliminary report, the European Union Election Observation Mission said that no rigging had been observed during the election day in general, but found a "lack of equality" and criticized the process more than it had in the Pakistani election of 2013.[14][15]
2022 constitutional crisis
On 8 March 2022, the opposition parties submitted a motion of no confidence against Khan to the National Assembly's secretariat.[16][17] On 27 March 2022, Khan waved a diplomatic cypher from US in the public,[18] claiming that it demands to remove Khan's government in a coup.[19] Though, later he changed his stance about the US conspiracy against his government.[20][21] On 1 April 2022, Prime Minister Khan announced that in context of the no-confidence motion against him in the National Assembly, the three options were discussed with "establishment" to choose from viz: "resignation, no-confidence [vote] or elections".[22] On 3 April 2022, President Arif Alvi dissolved the National Assembly of Pakistan on Khan's advice, after the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly rejected and set-aside the motion of no confidence; this move would have required elections to the National Assembly to be held within 90 days.[23][24] On 10 April, after a Supreme Court ruling that the no-confidence motion was illegally rejected, a no-confidence vote was conducted and he was ousted from office,[25][26] becoming the first prime minister in Pakistan to be removed from office by a vote of no confidence.[27][28][29] Khan claimed the US was behind his removal because he conducted an independent foreign policy and had friendly relations with China and Russia. His removal led to protests from his supporters across Pakistan.[30][31][32]
Schedule controversy
The general elections were supposed to be held in Pakistan less than 90 days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, which was prematurely dissolved on 10 August 2023 by President Arif Alvi on the advice of the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This meant that the election must be held not later than 8 November 2023.[33][34] However, on 5 August 2023, the results of the 2023 digital census were approved by the Council of Common Interests headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Therefore, elections were to be delayed to February 2024 at the latest, as announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). However, on 13 September 2023, President Alvi proposed 6 November 2023 as a date to the ECP and advised it to seek guidance from the Supreme Court for the announcement of the election date.[35][36][37][38] On 2 November 2023, the ECP and the President agreed on 8 February 2024 as the date for the general election.[39][40]
Schedule
The schedule of the election was announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan on 15 December 2023.[41]
| Sr no | Poll Event | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Notice Issued by the Returning Officers | 19 December 2023 |
| 2 | Dates of filing Nomination papers with the Returning Officers by the candidates | 20 December 2023 to 24 December 2023 |
| 3 | Publication of names of the nominated candidates. | 24 December 2023 |
| 4 | Last date of scrutiny of nomination papers by the Returning Officer | 25 December 2023 to 30 December 2023 |
| 5 | Last date of filing appeals against decisions of the Returning Officer rejecting/accepting nomination papers. | 3 January 2024 |
| 6 | Last date for deciding of appeals by the Appellate Tribunal | 10 January 2024 |
| 7 | Publication of revised list of candidates | 11 January 2024 |
| 8 | Last date of withdrawal of candidature and publication of revised list of candidates | 12 January 2024 |
| 9 | Allotment of election symbol to contesting candidates | 13 January 2024 |
| 10 | Date of Polling and Counting of Votes | 8 February 2024 |
Electoral system
The 336 members of the National Assembly consist of 266 general seats elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies,[42] 60 seats reserved for women elected by proportional representation based on the number of general seats won by each party in each province, and ten seats reserved for non-Muslims elected through proportional representation based on the number of overall general seats won by each party.
The government had passed a bill that required the next general elections to be held using EVMs (electronic voting machines). This was aimed at bringing an end to the allegations of rigging that have plagued previous elections in Pakistan, but the opposition's opinion was that it would make it extremely easy for PTI to rig the elections in their favour through security loopholes.[43] In 2022 when the PTI-led government was ousted through a successful vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly, the 11 opposition parties, some of them being long-time rivals, formed a new government and passed the Elections Amendment Bill, which nullified the use of EVMs in the next general elections. Hence, EVMs will not be used in next general elections.
Timeline
In July 2023 the ECP invited political parties to submit applications for the allocation of electoral symbols.[44]
As of 25 July 2023, the total number of registered voters in Pakistan stood around 127 million as compared to 106 million (including 59.22 million men and 46.73 million women voters) in 2018, according to the data released by the ECP.[45] According to the figures, the number of eligible female voters stood at 58.5 million (around 46 percent of the total registered voters) while the number of eligible male voters was 68.5 million (about 54 percent of the total voters).[46]
In late September the ECP announced that the citizens over 18 can update their voter details until 25 October 2023. The ECP decided to “unfreeze” the electoral rolls to allow registered voters to rectify or update their details.[47]
On 2 November 2023, President Arif Alvi and the ECP came to an agreement on holding general elections on 8 February, after a meeting was held in Aiwan-i-Sadr on the orders of the Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP). The SCP had instructed the ECP to consult with the President on the poll date.[48]
On 15 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan issued the election schedule. 22 December 2023 was set as the last date for filing nomination papers.[49]
On 22 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan extended the deadline for the submission of nomination papers by two days to 24 December 2023.[50]
Parties
The table below lists each party that either received a share of the vote higher than 0.5% in the 2018 Pakistan general election or had representation in the 15th National Assembly of Pakistan. Political parties are ordered by their vote share in the 2018 elections. Independent Candidates bagged 11.46% of the vote and 13 national assembly seats (both general seats and total seats in the 15th National Assembly, as reserved seats for women and minorities, are given to political parties) in 2018.
Opinion polls
Surveys near election showed that even if the PTI contests the elections with its own symbol Bat, the contest is likely to be very tough. As contrary to the general perception in the social and traditional media PMLN has significantly regained its lost ground even in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Since Nawaz Sharif's return home, the popularity gap between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and PMLN is rapidly decreasing and the situation in this regard has reached where it was on the eve of the 2018 elections. This situation is despite the fact that one month is left and no campaign has started for the general elections till now.
In a survey conducted 8 months prior to elction by Gallup Pakistan in June 2023, it was reported that the PTI's popularity was 15 percent higher than the Non-League's a week before Nawaz Sharif's visit to Lahore.According to the latest survey conducted between December 15 and January 7 2024, this gap has now narrowed to four percent. In latest survey, opinions were obtained from five thousand people from all over the country. Those who said they would vote for PTI gave this opinion because they wanted to vote for Bat symbol of PTI. The latest survey indicte shrinking gap in Punjab province being the largest province specially in its three out of four regions of province, South, Central and West Punjab and now the difference in popularity is almost negligible as it is just one to two percent. Since the pollsters also factored in a margin of error of two to three percent, the difference is negligible.However, in North Punjab, PTI's popularity is 10% higher than that of the PMLN. This region includes most of the districts of Rawalpindi region. This region is also called the Marshall Belt because the majority of army recruits are from this region. Pollsters generally believe that the military, both serving and retired, remains largely politically loyal to their institution, as evidenced by a survey conducted a few months ago.In the survey, the people of this region are being considered counter-balanced and that is the reason why PTI is leading here. It is also a fact that PTI is a popular party in all ranks.
Talking about the pulse of Punjab, this is proved in another survey. Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR) Executive Director Tariq Junaid says that the seats won by the Non-League in 2018 are largely intact. His organization is currently conducting surveys in various constituencies along with the PMLN to determine the best candidates for the elections.Tariq Junaid said that in Lahore and Gujranwala division, Non-League will probably retain the seats won in 2018.
Bilal Gilani, executive director of Gallup Pakistan, also agrees that the PTI is facing some difficulties in the current situation and this situation may have an impact on the voters. He said that PTI's current level of popularity might not win it in the elections, especially when the elections are a month away. He said that in 2018 both the parties got almost equal number of votes. The situation was changed by adding electables from South Punjab. [52]
See also
- 2024 Pakistani provincial elections
- 2024 Punjab provincial election
- 2024 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial election
- 2024 Sindh provincial election
- 2024 Balochistan provincial election
- 2024 Pakistani presidential election
References
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- ^ Gannon, Kathy (26 July 2018). "Unofficial Results in Pakistan's Election Show Lead For Imran Khan, But Opponents Allege Fraud". TIME Magazine. Archived from the original on 29 July 2018. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
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Khan has claimed the US worked behind the scenes to bring him down, purportedly because of Washington's displeasure over his independent foreign policy choices, which often favour China and Russia.
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