2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama: Difference between revisions
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==Background== |
==Background== |
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{{See also|Allen v. Milligan|2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama#Background}} |
{{See also|Allen v. Milligan|2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama#Background}} |
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During the [[2020 United States redistricting cycle|2020 redistricting cycle]], Alabama's congressional map faced legal challenges for alleged violations of the [[Voting Rights Act of 1965]]. 27% of Alabama's population is African American, but only one of Alabama's seven districts was drawn with a Black majority. A federal panel initially blocked the 2022 map, finding that the state illegally discriminated against Black voters by not drawing a second majority-Black district.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Chandler |first1=Kim |title=Alabama's new congressional districts map blocked by judges |url=https://apnews.com/article/voting-rights-alabama-race-and-ethnicity-legislature-redistricting-911cfdda84f55956e15a189782d319bb |website=Associated Press |date=January 25, 2022 |access-date=January 25, 2022}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Alabama's new congressional map blocked by judges |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/24/alabama-redistricting-map-rejected-00001687 |website=Politico |access-date=January 25, 2022}}</ref><ref name="NYT">{{Cite web|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/us/politics/alabama-congressional-map-redistricting.html|title=Court Throws Out Alabama's New Congressional Map|last=Epstein|first=Reid J.|work=The New York Times|date=January 24, 2022|accessdate=January 26, 2022}}</ref> However, on February 7, 2022, the [[Supreme Court of the United States]] granted a stay on the case that had been requested by the state of Alabama, allowing the discriminatory map to remain in place for the [[2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama|2022 elections]], but signaled it would fully review the case at a later date.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Liptak |first1=Adam |title=Supreme Court, in 5-4 Vote, Restores Alabama's Congressional Voting Map|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/us/politics/supreme-court-alabama-redistricting-congressional-map.html|website=The New York Times|date=February 7, 2022 |access-date=February 7, 2022}}</ref><ref name="msnbc scotus stay">{{cite web | url = https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/conservative-justices-rescue-alabamas-racially-discriminatory-map-rcna15316 | title = Conservative justices rescue Alabama's racially discriminatory map | first = Steve | last= Benen |author-link=Steve Benen | date = February 8, 2022 | accessdate = February 8, 2022 | work = [[MSNBC]] }}</ref> |
During the [[2020 United States redistricting cycle|2020 redistricting cycle]], Alabama's congressional map faced legal challenges for alleged violations of the [[Voting Rights Act of 1965]]. 27% of Alabama's population is African American, but only one of Alabama's seven districts was drawn with a Black majority. A federal panel initially blocked the 2022 map, finding that the state illegally discriminated against Black voters by not drawing a second majority-Black district.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Chandler |first1=Kim |title=Alabama's new congressional districts map blocked by judges |url=https://apnews.com/article/voting-rights-alabama-race-and-ethnicity-legislature-redistricting-911cfdda84f55956e15a189782d319bb |website=Associated Press |date=January 25, 2022 |access-date=January 25, 2022}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Alabama's new congressional map blocked by judges |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/24/alabama-redistricting-map-rejected-00001687 |website=Politico |access-date=January 25, 2022}}</ref><ref name="NYT">{{Cite web|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/us/politics/alabama-congressional-map-redistricting.html|title=Court Throws Out Alabama's New Congressional Map|last=Epstein|first=Reid J.|work=The New York Times|date=January 24, 2022|accessdate=January 26, 2022}}</ref> However, on February 7, 2022, the [[Supreme Court of the United States]] granted a stay on the case that had been requested by the state of Alabama, allowing the allegedly discriminatory map to remain in place for the [[2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama|2022 elections]], but signaled it would fully review the case at a later date.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Liptak |first1=Adam |title=Supreme Court, in 5-4 Vote, Restores Alabama's Congressional Voting Map|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/us/politics/supreme-court-alabama-redistricting-congressional-map.html|website=The New York Times|date=February 7, 2022 |access-date=February 7, 2022}}</ref><ref name="msnbc scotus stay">{{cite web | url = https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/conservative-justices-rescue-alabamas-racially-discriminatory-map-rcna15316 | title = Conservative justices rescue Alabama's racially discriminatory map | first = Steve | last= Benen |author-link=Steve Benen | date = February 8, 2022 | accessdate = February 8, 2022 | work = [[MSNBC]] }}</ref> |
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On June 8, 2023, the Supreme Court affirmed the previous finding that the map discriminated against Black Alabamians. In a 5–4 decision in ''[[Allen v. Milligan]]'', Justice [[Brett Kavanaugh]] and Chief Justice [[John Roberts]] joined the Supreme Court's liberal wing (Justices [[Ketanji Brown Jackson]], [[Elena Kagan]], and [[Sonia Sotomayor]]) and ruled in favor of Milligan. The decision, considered an unexpected victory for voting rights activists in Alabama, upheld the federal panel's ruling that Alabama had illegally diluted the power of Black voters.<ref>{{cite news|last=Liptak|first=Adam|title= Supreme Court Rejects Voting Map That Diluted Black Voters' Power|date=Jun 8, 2023|newspaper=The New York Times|url= https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/08/us/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-alabama.html}}</ref><ref name="NBC">{{Cite web|url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-strikes-alabama-congressional-map-voting-rights-dispute-rcna64476|title=Supreme Court backs landmark voting rights law, strikes down Alabama congressional map|last=Hurley|first=Lawrence|work=NBC News|date=June 8, 2023|access-date=June 8, 2023}}</ref> The decision will likely force Alabama to reconfigure its congressional districts in advance of the 2024 elections, drawing a second predominantly Black district.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Gerstein |first1=Josh |last2=Montellaro |first2=Zach |date=June 8, 2023 |title=Voting Rights Act dodges bullet at Supreme Court |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/08/voting-rights-act-dodges-bullet-at-supreme-court-00101004 |website=Politico}}</ref> The [[Alabama Legislature]] would have to convene a special legislative session in order to draw a new map.<ref name="1819a">{{Cite web|url=https://1819news.com/news/item/algop-disappointed-in-scotus-redistricting-ruling-wahl-vows-to-work-hard-to-win-all-seven-congressional-seats|title=ALGOP 'disappointed' in SCOTUS redistricting ruling; Wahl vows to 'work hard to win all seven congressional seats'|last=Taylor|first=Caleb|work=1819 News|date=June 8, 2023|access-date=June 8, 2023}}</ref> [[John Wahl]], chair of the [[Alabama Republican Party]], published a statement in reaction to the ruling, stating that the party would "work hard to win all seven Congressional seats".<ref name="1819a" /> As a result of the ruling, election predictions website [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]] made the following seat prediction based on a hypothetically redrawn seat (which they referred to as "Alabama ?").<ref>{{cite web | title=2024 House| url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/|website= Sabato's Crystal Ball | access-date=June 8, 2023}}</ref> |
On June 8, 2023, the Supreme Court affirmed the previous finding that the map discriminated against Black Alabamians. In a 5–4 decision in ''[[Allen v. Milligan]]'', Justice [[Brett Kavanaugh]] and Chief Justice [[John Roberts]] joined the Supreme Court's liberal wing (Justices [[Ketanji Brown Jackson]], [[Elena Kagan]], and [[Sonia Sotomayor]]) and ruled in favor of Milligan. The decision, considered an unexpected victory for voting rights activists in Alabama, upheld the federal panel's ruling that Alabama had illegally diluted the power of Black voters.<ref>{{cite news|last=Liptak|first=Adam|title= Supreme Court Rejects Voting Map That Diluted Black Voters' Power|date=Jun 8, 2023|newspaper=The New York Times|url= https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/08/us/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-alabama.html}}</ref><ref name="NBC">{{Cite web|url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-strikes-alabama-congressional-map-voting-rights-dispute-rcna64476|title=Supreme Court backs landmark voting rights law, strikes down Alabama congressional map|last=Hurley|first=Lawrence|work=NBC News|date=June 8, 2023|access-date=June 8, 2023}}</ref> The decision will likely force Alabama to reconfigure its congressional districts in advance of the 2024 elections, drawing a second predominantly Black district.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Gerstein |first1=Josh |last2=Montellaro |first2=Zach |date=June 8, 2023 |title=Voting Rights Act dodges bullet at Supreme Court |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/08/voting-rights-act-dodges-bullet-at-supreme-court-00101004 |website=Politico}}</ref> The [[Alabama Legislature]] would have to convene a special legislative session in order to draw a new map.<ref name="1819a">{{Cite web|url=https://1819news.com/news/item/algop-disappointed-in-scotus-redistricting-ruling-wahl-vows-to-work-hard-to-win-all-seven-congressional-seats|title=ALGOP 'disappointed' in SCOTUS redistricting ruling; Wahl vows to 'work hard to win all seven congressional seats'|last=Taylor|first=Caleb|work=1819 News|date=June 8, 2023|access-date=June 8, 2023}}</ref> [[John Wahl]], chair of the [[Alabama Republican Party]], published a statement in reaction to the ruling, stating that the party would "work hard to win all seven Congressional seats".<ref name="1819a" /> As a result of the ruling, election predictions website [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]] made the following seat prediction based on a hypothetically redrawn seat (which they referred to as "Alabama ?").<ref>{{cite web | title=2024 House| url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-house/|website= Sabato's Crystal Ball | access-date=June 8, 2023}}</ref> |
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Revision as of 13:56, 1 July 2023
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All 7 Alabama seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||
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| Elections in Alabama |
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 Government |
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Alabama will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the seven U.S. representatives from the state of Alabama, one from each of the state's seven congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
Background
During the 2020 redistricting cycle, Alabama's congressional map faced legal challenges for alleged violations of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. 27% of Alabama's population is African American, but only one of Alabama's seven districts was drawn with a Black majority. A federal panel initially blocked the 2022 map, finding that the state illegally discriminated against Black voters by not drawing a second majority-Black district.[1][2][3] However, on February 7, 2022, the Supreme Court of the United States granted a stay on the case that had been requested by the state of Alabama, allowing the allegedly discriminatory map to remain in place for the 2022 elections, but signaled it would fully review the case at a later date.[4][5]
On June 8, 2023, the Supreme Court affirmed the previous finding that the map discriminated against Black Alabamians. In a 5–4 decision in Allen v. Milligan, Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Chief Justice John Roberts joined the Supreme Court's liberal wing (Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson, Elena Kagan, and Sonia Sotomayor) and ruled in favor of Milligan. The decision, considered an unexpected victory for voting rights activists in Alabama, upheld the federal panel's ruling that Alabama had illegally diluted the power of Black voters.[6][7] The decision will likely force Alabama to reconfigure its congressional districts in advance of the 2024 elections, drawing a second predominantly Black district.[8] The Alabama Legislature would have to convene a special legislative session in order to draw a new map.[9] John Wahl, chair of the Alabama Republican Party, published a statement in reaction to the ruling, stating that the party would "work hard to win all seven Congressional seats".[9] As a result of the ruling, election predictions website Sabato's Crystal Ball made the following seat prediction based on a hypothetically redrawn seat (which they referred to as "Alabama ?").[10]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Likely D | June 8, 2023 |
District 1
The 1st district encompasses Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia and Monroe counties, including the cities of Mobile, Bay Minette, Foley, and Monroeville. The incumbent is Republican Jerry Carl, who was re-elected with 83.6% of the vote in 2022, with no Democratic challenger.
Republican primary
Candidates
Filed paperwork
- Jerry Carl, incumbent U.S. Representative[12]
- David Whitlock, house cleaner[13][14]
Endorsements
Democratic primary
Candidates
Filed paperwork
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Tossup | June 8, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Safe R | March 10, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | February 23, 2023 |
District 2
The 2nd district encompasses most of the Montgomery metropolitan area, and stretches into the Wiregrass Region in the southeastern portion of the state, including Andalusia, Dothan, Greenville, and Troy. The incumbent is Republican Barry Moore, who was re-elected with 69.1% of the vote in 2022.
Republican primary
Candidates
Potential
- Barry Moore, incumbent U.S. Representative
Endorsements
Democratic primary
Candidates
Filed paperwork
- Terell Anderson, graphic designer, progressive activist and candidate for this seat in 2022[13][20]
- Austin Vigue, political consultant[13][21]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Tossup | June 8, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Safe R | March 10, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | February 23, 2023 |
District 3
The 3rd district is based in eastern Alabama, taking in small parts of Montgomery, as well as Anniston, Auburn, Talladega and Tuskegee. The incumbent is Republican Mike Rogers, who was re-elected with 71.2% of the vote in 2022.
Republican primary
Candidates
Filed paperwork
- Nathan LeRoy Woodring[22]
Formed exploratory committee
- Robert L. McCollum, businessman and candidate for Alabama Public Service Commission in 2022[23]
Potential
- Mike Rogers, incumbent U.S. Representative
Endorsements
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Safe R | February 2, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Safe R | March 10, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | February 23, 2023 |
District 4
The 4th district is located in rural north-central Alabama, including Cullman, Gadsden, and Jasper. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, it is the most Republican district in the country, with an index rating of R+33.[24] The incumbent is Republican Robert Aderholt, who was re-elected with 84.1% of the vote in 2022.
Republican primary
Candidates
Potential
- Robert Aderholt, incumbent U.S. Representative
Endorsements
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Safe R | February 2, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Safe R | March 10, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | February 23, 2023 |
District 5
The 5th district is based in northern Alabama, including the city of Huntsville, as well as Athens, Decatur, Florence, and Scottsboro. The incumbent is first-term Republican Dale Strong, who was elected with 67.1% of the vote in 2022.
Republican primary
Candidates
Filed paperwork
- Dale Strong, incumbent U.S. Representative[25]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Safe R | February 2, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Safe R | March 10, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | February 23, 2023 |
District 6
The 6th district encompasses Greater Birmingham, taking in parts of Birmingham, as well as the surrounding suburbs, including Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Coosa, and Shelby counties. Other cities include Alabaster, Hoover and Montevallo. The incumbent is Republican Gary Palmer, who was re-elected with 83.7% of the vote in 2022, with no Democratic challenger.
Palmer's re-election campaign gained attention due to his 2014 signing of the U.S. Term Limits Pledge and campaign promise to not run for more than five terms to Congress. Palmer's previous statements meant that he would have retired in 2024, however, Palmer chose to seek a sixth term in this election.[26] Palmer cited his reasons for seeking re-election, including recent high turnover in Alabama's congressional delegation, his rise to Republican leadership within the House of Representatives,[27] and personal prayer, saying that he had "prayed for God to give me clarity on it".[26] He disputed media reports (including an article by AL.com) that characterized his five-term limit as being part of the U.S. Term Limits pledge, when in fact, the pledge only applied to sponsoring legislation. However, Palmer acknowledged that he did claim during his 2014 campaign that he would serve no more than five terms, and said he would "own that", regarding breaking that campaign promise.[28]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Gary Palmer, incumbent U.S. Representative[26]
Endorsements
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Safe R | February 2, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Safe R | March 10, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | February 23, 2023 |
District 7
The 7th district encompasses the Black Belt, including Selma and Demopolis, as well as taking in majority-black areas of Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Montgomery. The incumbent is Democrat Terri Sewell, who was re-elected with 63.5% of the vote in 2022.
Sewell has filed paperwork to run for re-election in 2024,[29] and acknowledged her intent to run again in a Roll Call article, though she has also referenced the possibility of her district changing as a result of Allen v. Milligan.[30]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Terri Sewell, incumbent U.S. Representative[30]
Potential
- Merika Coleman, member of the Alabama Senate from the 19th district (2022–present), member of the Alabama House of Representatives from the 57th district (2002–2022)[31]
- Linda Coleman-Madison, member of the Alabama Senate from the 20th district (2006–present)[31]
- Neil Rafferty, member of the Alabama House of Representatives from the 54th district (2018–present)[31]
- Sheila Tyson, Jefferson County Commissioner from the 2nd district (2018–present)[31]
- Randall Woodfin, incumbent Mayor of Birmingham, Alabama (2017–present)[31]
Endorsements
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Safe D | February 2, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Safe D | March 10, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe D | February 23, 2023 |
References
- ^ Chandler, Kim (January 25, 2022). "Alabama's new congressional districts map blocked by judges". Associated Press. Retrieved January 25, 2022.
- ^ "Alabama's new congressional map blocked by judges". Politico. Retrieved January 25, 2022.
- ^ Epstein, Reid J. (January 24, 2022). "Court Throws Out Alabama's New Congressional Map". The New York Times. Retrieved January 26, 2022.
- ^ Liptak, Adam (February 7, 2022). "Supreme Court, in 5-4 Vote, Restores Alabama's Congressional Voting Map". The New York Times. Retrieved February 7, 2022.
- ^ Benen, Steve (February 8, 2022). "Conservative justices rescue Alabama's racially discriminatory map". MSNBC. Retrieved February 8, 2022.
- ^ Liptak, Adam (Jun 8, 2023). "Supreme Court Rejects Voting Map That Diluted Black Voters' Power". The New York Times.
- ^ Hurley, Lawrence (June 8, 2023). "Supreme Court backs landmark voting rights law, strikes down Alabama congressional map". NBC News. Retrieved June 8, 2023.
- ^ Gerstein, Josh; Montellaro, Zach (June 8, 2023). "Voting Rights Act dodges bullet at Supreme Court". Politico.
- ^ a b Taylor, Caleb (June 8, 2023). "ALGOP 'disappointed' in SCOTUS redistricting ruling; Wahl vows to 'work hard to win all seven congressional seats'". 1819 News. Retrieved June 8, 2023.
- ^ "2024 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 8, 2023.
- ^ "2024 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 8, 2023.
- ^ "Jerry Carl FEC Statement of Candidacy". Retrieved April 26, 2023.
- ^ a b c d Gunzburger, Ron. "Politics1 – Online Guide to Alabama Elections, Candidates & Politics". www.politics1.com. Retrieved March 7, 2023.
- ^ "David Whitlock FEC Statement of Candidacy". Retrieved March 7, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f "Support Pro Israel Candidates". AIPAC Political Portal. Retrieved 5 May 2023.
- ^ "Gary Johnson FEC Statement of Candidacy". Retrieved March 7, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g "2024 CPR House Race Ratings". Retrieved June 8, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
- ^ "Terell Anderson FEC Statement of Candidacy". Retrieved March 24, 2023.
- ^ "Austin Vigue FEC Statement of Candidacy". Retrieved March 7, 2023.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1702036". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved 2023-04-23.
- ^ Moseley, Brandon (January 10, 2023). "Robert L. McCollum considers challenging Rep. Mike Rogers". Alabama Today. Retrieved March 7, 2023.
- ^ Wasserman, David. "Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)". The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Retrieved July 13, 2022.
- ^ "Dale Strong FEC Statement of Candidacy". Retrieved April 26, 2023.
- ^ a b c Moseley, Brandon (March 11, 2023). "Gary Palmer breaking key campaign promise after praying to God for 'clarity'". Alabama Today. Retrieved March 11, 2023.
- ^ Wilkins, Emily; Cohen, Zach (March 4, 2022). "GOP Maps Out Next Agenda With Aid of Quiet Lawmaker From Alabama". Bloomberg Government. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
- ^ Blakely, Will (March 14, 2023). "U.S. Rep. Palmer running again in 2024; Claims pledge was to support term-limit legislation, but acknowledges saying would only serve five terms". 1819 News. Retrieved March 14, 2023.
- ^ "Terri Sewell FEC Statement of Candidacy". Retrieved March 7, 2023.
- ^ a b Lesniewski, Niels; McIntire, Mary Ellen (June 8, 2023). "Alabama ruling could help Democrats in multiple states". Roll Call.
Sewell, who lives in Birmingham, said she expects to run again in the 7th District, but acknowledged that her district could change under a new map.
- ^ a b c d e Poor, Jeff (June 12, 2023). "Five candidates who could pose a threat to incumbent U.S. Rep. Sewell for the Democrat nomination in a redrawn congressional district". 1819 News. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 6th district candidates