Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election
 2016 U.S. presidential election | |
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| Republican Party | |
| Democratic Party | |
| Third parties | |
| Related races | |
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This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016.
Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016 despite being behind in nearly all opinion polls.[1][2] Media analysts differ as to why the polling industry was unable to correctly forecast the result.[1][2] Two daily tracking polls, the UPI/CVoter poll and the University of Southern California/Los Angeles Times poll were the only polls that often predicted a Trump popular vote victory or showed a nearly tied election.[3] Trump ultimately lost the popular vote while winning the electoral college.
Graphical summaries
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Poll numbers verified as of November 8, 2016[update].
| Race | Poll model | Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gary Johnson Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Leading by (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-way | 270 to Win | 47.2% | 43.6% | — | 3.6 | |
| BBC | 48.0% | 44.0% | 4.0 | |||
| Election Projection | 47.0% | 43.8% | 3.2 | |||
| HuffPost Pollster | 47.3% | 42.0% | 5.3 | |||
| New York Times | 45.9% | 42.8% | 3.1 | |||
| Real Clear Politics | 46.8% | 43.6% | 3.2 | |||
| TPM Polltracker | 48.8% | 43.9% | 4.9 | |||
| Three-way | FiveThirtyEight | 45.7% | 41.8% | 4.8% | — | 3.9 |
| HuffPost Pollster | 45.7% | 40.8% | 5.0% | 4.9 | ||
| New York Times | 45.4% | 42.3% | 5.0% | 3.1 | ||
| TPM Polltracker | 46.0% | 44.1% | 4.9% | 1.9 | ||
| Four-way | 270 to Win | 45.6% | 42.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 3.1 |
| Election Projection | 45.3% | 42.0% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 3.3 | |
| Real Clear Politics | 45.5% | 42.2% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 3.3 | |
| CNN Poll of Polls | 46.0% | 42.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 4.0 | |
| TPM Polltracker | 46.6% | 43.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.8 | |
| Election results (popular vote) | 48.1% | 46.0% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 2.1 | |
| Election results (Electoral College) | 227 (42.2%) | 304 (56.5%) | 0 | 0 | 14.3% | |
Individual polls
Two-way race
Since convention nominations
| Poll source | Date | Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Leading by (points) |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPI/CVoter[4] | November 1–7, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 1,728 | ± 3.0% |
| YouGov/The Economist[5] | November 4–7, 2016 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 3,677 | ± 1.7% |
| Bloomberg News/Selzer[6] | November 4–6, 2016 | 46% | 43% | 3 | 799 | ± 3.5% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[7] | November 3–6, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 2,220 | ± 2.5% |
| Fox News[8] | November 3–6, 2016 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 1,295 | ± 2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[9] | November 3–6, 2016 | 43% | 42% | 1 | 1,026 | ± 3.1% |
| Monmouth University[10] | November 3–6, 2016 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 802 | ± 3.6% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[11] | November 2–6, 2016 | 44% | 39% | 5 | 2,195 | ± 2.4% |
| CBS News/New York Times[12] | November 2–6, 2016 | 47% | 43% | 4 | 1,426 | ± 3.0% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[13] | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 70,194 | ± 1.0% |
| CCES/YouGov[14] | October 4 – November 6, 2016 | 43% | 39% | 4 | 84,292 | ±% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[15] | November 3–5, 2016 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 1,282 | ± 2.73% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[16] | November 2–5, 2016 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 1,937 | ± 2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[17] | November 2–5, 2016 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 903 | ± 3.3% |
| UPI/CVoter[18] | October 30 – November 5, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 1,572 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[19] | October 30 – November 5, 2016 | 43% | 48% | 5 | 2,988 | ± 4.5% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[20] | November 1–4, 2016 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 1,685 | ± 2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[21] | November 1–4, 2016 | 46% | 43% | 3 | 804 | ± 3.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[22] | October 31 – November 4, 2016 | 44% | 40% | 4 | 2,244 | ± 2.4% |
| UPI/CVoter[23] | October 29 – November 4, 2016 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 1,497 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[24] | October 29 – November 4, 2016 | 43% | 48% | 5 | 2,987 | ± 4.5% |
| Fox News[25] | November 1–3, 2016 | 46% | 45% | 1 | 1,107 | ± 3.0% |
| McClatchy/Marist[26] | November 1–3, 2016 | 46% | 44% | 2 | 940 | ± 3.2% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[27] | October 30 – November 3, 2016 | 44% | 39% | 5 | 2,021 | ± 2.6% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[28] | October 31 – November 3, 2016 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 1,419 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[29] | October 30 – November 3, 2016 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 898 | ± 3.3% |
| UPI/CVoter[30] | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 1,395 | ± 3.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[31] | October 30 – November 2, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 1,151 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[32] | October 29 – November 2, 2016 | 45% | 39% | 6 | 1,858 | ± 2.6% |
| IBD/TIPP[33] | October 29 – November 2, 2016 | 44% | 44% | Tied | 867 | ± 3.4% |
| UPI/CVoter[34] | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 1,329 | ± 3.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[35] | October 29 – November 1, 2016 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 1,167 | ± 3.0% |
| CBS News/New York Times[36] | October 28 – November 1, 2016 | 47% | 44% | 3 | 1,333 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[37] | October 28 – November 1, 2016 | 45% | 39% | 6 | 1,772 | ± 3.0% |
| YouGov/The Economist[38] | October 30 – November 1, 2016 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 1,233 | ± 3.2% |
| IBD/TIPP[39] | October 27 – November 1, 2016 | 44% | 44% | Tied | 862 | ± 3.4% |
| UPI/CVoter[40] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 1,383 | ±3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[41] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 42% | 48% | 6 | 3,004 | ± 4.5% |
| One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[42] | October 31, 2016 | 50% | 50% | Tied | 5,360 | ± 1.3% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[43] | October 28–31, 2016 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 1,182 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[44] | October 26–31, 2016 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 1,018 | ± 3.2% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[45] | October 29–30, 2016 | 46% | 43% | 3 | 1,772 | ± 2.0% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[46] | October 27–30, 2016 | 52% | 47% | 5 | 2,075 | ± 3.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[47] | October 27–30, 2016 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 1,167 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[48] | October 26–30, 2016 | 44% | 39% | 5 | 1,264 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[49] | October 25–30, 2016 | 45% | 43% | 2 | 993 | ± 3.2% |
| UPI/CVoter[50] | October 24–30, 2016 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 1,299 | ±3.0% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[51] | October 24–30, 2016 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 40,816 | ± 1.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[52] | October 26–29, 2016 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 1,165 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[53] | October 24–29, 2016 | 45% | 41% | 4 | 1,039 | ± 3.3% |
| UPI/CVoter[54] | October 23–29, 2016 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 1,317 | ± 3.0% |
| Morning Consult[55] | October 27–28, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 5 | 1,794 | ± 2.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[56] | October 25–28, 2016 | 46% | 45% | 1 | 1,160 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[57] | October 23–28, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 5 | 1,013 | ± 3.3% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[58] | October 24–27, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 1,148 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[59] | October 22–27, 2016 | 45% | 42% | 3 | 973 | ± 3.3% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[60] | October 21–27, 2016 | 42% | 36% | 6 | 1,627 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[61] | October 21–27, 2016 | 44% | 46% | 2 | 3,248 | ± 4.5% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[62] | October 23–26, 2016 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 1,150 | ± 3.0% |
| YouGov/The Economist[63] | October 22–26, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 1,376 | ± 3.1% |
| IBD/TIPP[64] | October 21–26, 2016 | 44% | 42% | 2 | 945 | ± 3.3% |
| UPI/CVoter[65] | October 20–26, 2016 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 1,363 | ± 3.0% |
| Fox News[66] | October 22–25, 2016 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 1,221 | ± 2.5% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[67] | October 22–25, 2016 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 1,135 | ± 3.0% |
| Pew Research Center[68] | October 20–25, 2016 | 50% | 43% | 7 | 2,120 | ± 2.4% |
| IBD/TIPP[69] | October 20–25, 2016 | 43% | 41% | 2 | 921 | ± 3.3% |
| UPI/CVoter[70] | October 19–25, 2016 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 1,349 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[71] | October 19–25, 2016 | 44% | 45% | 1 | 3,145 | ± 4.5% |
| CNBC[72] | October 21–24, 2016 | 47% | 37% | 10 | 804 | ± 3.5% |
| ABC News[73] | October 21–24, 2016 | 51% | 43% | 8 | 1,119 | ± 3.0% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[74] | October 21–24, 2016 | 53% | 41% | 12 | 900 | ± 3.27% |
| Associated Press/GFK[75] | October 20–24, 2016 | 54% | 41% | 13 | 1,546 | ± 2.75% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[76] | October 20–24, 2016 | 49% | 39% | 10 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[77] | October 20–24, 2016 | 43% | 37% | 6 | 1,170 | ± 3.3% |
| IBD/TIPP[78] | October 19–24, 2016 | 43% | 42% | 1 | 873 | ± 3.6% |
| One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[79] | October 20–23, 2016 | 50% | 50% | Tied | 2,109 | ± 2.1% |
| ABC News[80] | October 20–23, 2016 | 53% | 41% | 12 | 1,155 | ± 3.0% |
| CNN/ORC[81] | October 20–23, 2016 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 779 | ± 3.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[82] | October 18–23, 2016 | 42% | 42% | Tied | 815 | ± 3.6% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[83] | October 17–23, 2016 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 32,225 | ± 1.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[84] | October 17–23, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 1,414 | ± 3.0% |
| ABC News[85] | October 20–22, 2016 | 53% | 41% | 12 | 874 | ± 3.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[86] | October 17–22, 2016 | 42% | 43% | 1 | 783 | ± 3.6% |
| IBD/TIPP[87] | October 16–21, 2016 | 42% | 42% | Tied | 791 | ± 3.6% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[88] | October 19–20, 2016 | 46% | 40% | 6 | 1,395 | ± 3.0% |
| American Research Group[89] | October 17–20, 2016 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 1,006 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[90] | October 15–20, 2016 | 43% | 41% | 2 | 789 | ± 3.6% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[91] | October 14–20, 2016 | 44% | 45% | 1 | 3,001 | ± 4.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[92] | October 14–20, 2016 | 44% | 40% | 4 | 1,640 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[93] | October 14–19, 2016 | 43% | 41% | 2 | 779 | ± 3.6% |
| Quinnipiac University[94] | October 17–18, 2016 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 1,007 | ± 3.1% |
| YouGov/The Economist[95] | October 15–18, 2016 | 47% | 43% | 4 | 1,300 | ± 4.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[96] | October 13–18, 2016 | 44% | 41% | 3 | 782 | ± 3.6% |
| Fox News[97] | October 15–17, 2016 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 912 | ± 3.0% |
| Bloomberg Politics[98] | October 14–17, 2016 | 50% | 41% | 9 | 1,006 | ± 3.1% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[99] | October 13–17, 2016 | 43% | 39% | 4 | 1,190 | ± 3.2% |
| Public Religion Research Institute/The Atlantic[100] | October 12–17, 2016 | 51% | 36% | 15 | 692 | ±4.4% |
| UPI/CVoter[101] | October 11–17, 2016 | 51% | 46% | 5 | 1,326 | ± 3.0% |
| Monmouth University[102] | October 14–16, 2016 | 53% | 41% | 12 | 805 | ± 3.5% |
| CBS News[103] | October 12–16, 2016 | 51% | 40% | 11 | 1,411 | ± 3.0% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[104] | October 10–16, 2016 | 51% | 43% | 8 | 24,804 | ± 1.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[105] | October 10–16, 2016 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 1,325 | ± 3.0% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[106] | October 13–15, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 5 | 1,737 | ± 2.0% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[107] | October 10–13, 2016 | 51% | 41% | 10 | 905 | ±3.3% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[108] | October 10–13, 2016 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 740 | ±4.0% |
| Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[109] | October 9–13, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 5 | 1,001 | ±3.1% |
| George Washington University[110] | October 8–13, 2016 | 47% | 39% | 8 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% |
| UPI/CVoter[111] | October 7–13, 2016 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 1,482 | ± 3.0% |
| Fox News[112] | October 10–12, 2016 | 49% | 41% | 8 | 917 | ± 3.0% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[113] | October 10, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 5 | 1,757 | ± 3.0% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[114] | October 8–10, 2016 | 50% | 40% | 10 | 900 | ± 3.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[115] | October 6–10, 2016 | 44% | 37% | 7 | 2,363 | ± 2.3% |
| UPI/CVoter[116] | October 4–10, 2016 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 1,367 | ± 3.0% |
| Pew Research Center[117] | September 27 – October 10, 2016 | 53% | 44% | 9 | 3,616 | ± 2.9% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[118] | October 8–9, 2016 | 52% | 38% | 14 | 422 | ± 4.6% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[119] | October 3–9, 2016 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 23,329 | ± 1.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[120] | October 3–9, 2016 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 1,801 | ± 3.0% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[121] | October 8, 2016 | 45% | 41% | 4 | 1,390 | ± 3.0% |
| YouGov/The Economist[122] | October 7–8, 2016 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 1,300 | ± 4.2% |
| Morning Consult[123] | October 5–6, 2016 | 44% | 42% | 2 | 1,775 | ± 2.0% |
| Quinnipiac University[124] | October 5–6, 2016 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 1,064 | ± 3.0% |
| Fox News[125] | October 3–6, 2016 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 896 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[126] | September 30 – October 6, 2016 | 43% | 38% | 5 | 1,695 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[127] | September 30 – October 6, 2016 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 1,774 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[128] | September 28 – October 4, 2016 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 1,274 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[129] | September 28 – October 4, 2016 | 43% | 47% | 4 | 2,369 | ± 4.5% |
| YouGov/The Economist[130] | October 1–3, 2016 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 911 | ± 3.9% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[131] | September 29 – October 3, 2016 | 44% | 37% | 7 | 1,928 | ± 2.5% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[132] | September 30 – October 2, 2016 | 46% | 39% | 7 | 1,778 | ± 2.0% |
| Farleigh Dickinson/SSRS[133] | September 28 – October 2, 2016 | 50% | 40% | 10 | 788 | ± 4.4% |
| CBS News/New York Times[134] | September 28 – October 2, 2016 | 49% | 43% | 6 | 1,501 | ± 3.0% |
| CNN/ORC[135] | September 28 – October 2, 2016 | 47% | 42% | 5 | 1,501 | ± 2.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[136] | September 26 – October 2, 2016 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 26,925 | ± 1.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[137] | September 26 – October 2, 2016 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 1,285 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[138] | September 24–30, 2016 | 42% | 47% | 5 | 2,526 | ± 4.5% |
| Fox News[139] | September 27–29, 2016 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 911 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[140] | September 23–29, 2016 | 43% | 38% | 5 | 2,501 | ± 2.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[141] | September 23–29, 2016 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 1,236 | ± 3.0% |
| Public Policy Polling[142] | September 27–28, 2016 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 993 | ± 3.2% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[143] | September 27–28, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 4 | 1,336 | ± 3.1% |
| One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[144] | September 27, 2016 | 50% | 50% | Tied | 3,386 | ± 1.7% |
| Echelon Insights[145] | September 26–27, 2016 | 47% | 42% | 5 | 1,833 | ±% |
| Morning Consult[146] | September 26–27, 2016 | 45% | 41% | 4 | 1,253 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[147] | September 21–27, 2016 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 1,239 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[148] | September 22–26, 2016 | 44% | 38% | 6 | 1,041 | ± 3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University[149] | September 22–25, 2016 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 1,115 | ± 2.9% |
| Monmouth University[150] | September 22–25, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 729 | ± 3.6% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[151] | September 19–25, 2016 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 13,598 | ± 1.1% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[152] | September 19–25, 2016 | 42% | 46% | 4 | 2,726 | ± 4.5% |
| UPI/CVoter[153] | September 19–25, 2016 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 1,052 | ± 3.0% |
| Morning Consult[154] | September 22–24, 2016 | 44% | 42% | 2 | 1,712 | ± 2.0% |
| Bloomberg/Selzer[155] | September 21–24, 2016 | 46% | 46% | Tied | 1,002 | ± 3.1% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[156] | September 19–22, 2016 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 651 | ± 4.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[157] | September 16–22, 2016 | 41% | 37% | 4 | 1,559 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[158] | September 15–21, 2016 | 43% | 45% | 2 | 2,623 | ± 2.3% |
| American Research Group[159] | September 17–20, 2016 | 47% | 44% | 3 | 990 | ± 3.2% |
| McClatchy/Marist[160] | September 15–20, 2016 | 48% | 41% | 7 | 758 | ± 3.6% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[161] | September 14–20, 2016 | 42% | 46% | 4 | 2,629 | ± 2.3% |
| YouGov/Economist[162] | September 18–19, 2016 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 936 | ± 4.0% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[163] | September 16–19, 2016 | 48% | 41% | 7 | 922 | ± 3.23% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[164] | September 15–19, 2016 | 39% | 39% | Tied | 1,111 | ± 3.4% |
| Associated Press/GFK[165] | September 15–19, 2016 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 1,251 | ± 2.5% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[166] | September 13–19, 2016 | 42% | 47% | 5 | 2,524 | ± 2.2% |
| UPI/CVoter[167] | September 12–18, 2016 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 1,203 | ± 3.0% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[168] | September 12–18, 2016 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 13,230 | ± 1.2% |
| UPI/CVoter[169] | September 10–16, 2016 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 1,246 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[170] | September 9–15, 2016 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 1,229 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[171] | September 9–15, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 4 | 1,579 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[172] | September 9–15, 2016 | 41% | 47% | 6 | 2,497 | ± 2.8% |
| Fox News[173] | September 11–14, 2016 | 45% | 46% | 1 | 867 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[174] | September 8–14, 2016 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 1,265 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[175] | September 8–14, 2016 | 41% | 47% | 6 | 2,499 | ± 3.1% |
| YouGov/Economist[176] | September 10–13, 2016 | 46% | 44% | 2 | 1,087 | ± 4.0% |
| CBS News/New York Times[177] | September 9–13, 2016 | 46% | 44% | 2 | 1,433 | ± 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[178] | September 8–13, 2016 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 960 | ± 3.2% |
| UPI/CVoter[179] | September 7–13, 2016 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 1,245 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[180] | September 7–13, 2016 | 42% | 47% | 5 | 2,550 | ± 2.7% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[181] | September 8–12, 2016 | 40% | 39% | 1 | 1,127 | ± 3.3% |
| UPI/CVoter[182] | September 6–12, 2016 | 46% | 49% | 3 | 1,232 | ± 3.0% |
| Pew Research[183] | August 16 – September 12, 2016 | 52% | 44% | 8 | 3,941 | ± 2.6% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[184] | September 5–11, 2016 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 16,220 | ± 1.1% |
| UPI/CVoter[185] | September 5–11, 2016 | 46% | 49% | 3 | 1,260 | ± 3.0% |
| Morning Consult[186] | September 6–8, 2016 | 44% | 43% | 1 | 1,710 | ± 2.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[187] | September 5–8, 2016 | 51% | 43% | 8 | 642 | ± 4.5% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[188] | September 2–8, 2016 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 2,653 | ± 2.4% |
| UPI/CVoter[189] | September 2–8, 2016 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 1,256 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[190] | September 1–7, 2016 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 1,226 | ± 3.0% |
| YouGov/Economist[191] | September 4–6, 2016 | 44% | 42% | 2 | 1,077 | ± 4.7% |
| UPI/CVoter[192] | August 31 – September 6, 2016 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 1,262 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[193] | September 1–5, 2016 | 40% | 38% | 2 | 1,084 | ± 3.5% |
| UPI/CVoter[194] | August 30 – September 5, 2016 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 1,220 | ± 3.0% |
| CNN/ORC[195] | September 1–4, 2016 | 48% | 49% | 1 | 786 | ± 3.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[196] | August 29 – September 4, 2016 | 48% | 42% | 6 | 32,226 | ± 1.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[197] | August 29 – September 4, 2016 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 1,237 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[198] | August 28 – September 3, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 1,242 | ± 3.0% |
| Morning Consult[199] | September 1–2, 2016 | 42% | 40% | 2 | 2,001 | ± 2% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[200] | August 26 – September 1, 2016 | 39% | 40% | 1 | 1,804 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[201] | August 26 – September 1, 2016 | 44% | 43% | 1 | 861 | ± 3.4% |
| Fox News[202] | August 28–30, 2016 | 48% | 42% | 6 | 1,011 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[203] | August 24–30, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 1,162 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[204] | August 25–29, 2016 | 40% | 39% | 1 | 1,404 | ± 3.0% |
| Suffolk University/USA Today[205] | August 24–29, 2016 | 48% | 41% | 7 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[206] | August 23–29, 2016 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 1,173 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[207] | August 23–29, 2016 | 42% | 45% | 3 | 2,500 | ± 2.5% |
| Public Policy Polling[208] | August 26–28, 2016 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 881 | ± 3.3% |
| Monmouth University[209] | August 25–28, 2016 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 689 | ± 3.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[210] | August 22–28, 2016 | 48% | 42% | 6 | 24,104 | ± 1.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[211] | August 22–28, 2016 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 1,145 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[212] | August 21–27, 2016 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 1,682 | ± 3.0% |
| Morning Consult[213] | August 24–26, 2016 | 43% | 40% | 3 | 2,007 | ± 2% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[214] | August 22–25, 2016 | 41% | 36% | 5 | 1,154 | ± 3% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[215] | August 20–24, 2016 | 42% | 35% | 7 | 1,049 | ± 2.9% |
| UPI/CVoter[216] | August 18–24, 2016 | 48% | 49% | 1 | 1,720 | ± 3.0% |
| Quinnipiac University[217] | August 18–24, 2016 | 51% | 41% | 10 | 1,496 | ± 2.5% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[218] | August 18–24, 2016 | 44% | 44% | Tied | 2,434 | ± 2.3% |
| YouGov/Economist[219] | August 19–23, 2016 | 47% | 44% | 3 | 1,080 | ± 4.1% |
| UPI/CVoter[220] | August 17–23, 2016 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 1,737 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[221] | August 18–22, 2016 | 45% | 33% | 12 | 1,115 | ± 3% |
| UPI/CVoter[222] | August 16–22, 2016 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 1,752 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[223] | August 15–21, 2016 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 1,795 | ± 3.0% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[224] | August 15–21, 2016 | 50% | 42% | 8 | 17,451 | ± 1.1% |
| American Research Group[225] | August 17–20, 2016 | 47% | 42% | 5 | 994 | ± 3.2% |
| Morning Consult[226] | August 16–20, 2016 | 44% | 38% | 6 | 2,001 | ± 2% |
| UPI/CVoter[227] | August 14–20, 2016 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 1,191 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[228] | August 14–20, 2016 | 43% | 45% | 2 | 2,385 | ± 2.8% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[229] | August 13–17, 2016 | 41% | 36% | 5 | 1,049 | ± 2.8% |
| UPI/CVoter[230] | August 11–17, 2016 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 1,009 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[231] | August 9–16, 2016 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 1,069 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[232] | August 11–15, 2016 | 41% | 35% | 6 | 1,132 | ± 3% |
| Normington, Petts & Associates[233] | August 9–15, 2016 | 50% | 40% | 10 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% |
| UPI/CVoter[234] | August 9–15, 2016 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 1,035 | ± 3.0% |
| Morning Consult[235] | August 11–14, 2016 | 44% | 37% | 7 | 2,001 | ± 2% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[236] | August 8–14, 2016 | 50% | 41% | 9 | 15,179 | ± 1.2% |
| UPI/CVoter[237] | August 7–14, 2016 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 975 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[238] | August 7–13, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 1,403 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[239] | August 3–10, 2016 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 1,077 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[240] | August 6–10, 2016 | 42% | 36% | 6 | 974 | ± 2.9% |
| YouGov/Economist[241] | August 6–9, 2016 | 48% | 41% | 7 | 1,300 | ± 4.2% |
| UPI/CVoter[242] | August 3–9, 2016 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 1,002 | ± 3.0% |
| Bloomberg Politics[243] | August 5–8, 2016 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 749 | ± 3.6% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[244] | August 4–8, 2016 | 42% | 35% | 7 | 1,152 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[245] | August 2–8, 2016 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 993 | ± 3.0% |
| PSRAI[246] | August 4–7, 2016 | 45% | 39% | 6 | 798 | ± 3.9% |
| UPI/CVoter[247] | August 1–7, 2016 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 1,407 | ± 3.0% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[248] | August 1–7, 2016 | 51% | 41% | 10 | 11,480 | ± 1.2% |
| UPI/CVoter[249] | July 31 – August 6, 2016 | 50% | 43% | 7 | 1,036 | ± 3.0% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[250] | July 31 – August 6, 2016 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 2,146 | ± 2.8% |
| Morning Consult[251] | August 4–5, 2016 | 46% | 37% | 9 | 2,001 | ± 2% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[252] | August 1–4, 2016 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 1,002 | ± 3.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[253] | July 31 – August 4, 2016 | 42% | 39% | 3 | 1,154 | ± 3.0% |
| UPI/CVoter[254] | July 29 – August 4, 2016 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 1,060 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[255] | July 29 – August 4, 2016 | 46% | 39% | 7 | 921 | ± 3.4% |
| McClatchy/Marist[256] | August 1–3, 2016 | 48% | 33% | 15 | 983 | ± 3.1% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[257] | July 31 – August 3, 2016 | 47% | 38% | 9 | 800 | ± 3.46% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[258] | July 30 – August 3, 2016 | 43% | 39% | 4 | 1,072 | ± 3.5% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[259] | July 28 – August 3, 2016 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 2,175 | ± 2.4% |
| UPI/CVoter[260] | July 27 – August 2, 2016 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 989 | ± 3.0% |
| Fox News[261] | July 31 – August 2, 2016 | 49% | 39% | 10 | 1,022 | ± 3% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[262] | July 27 – August 2, 2016 | 44% | 45% | 1 | 2,186 | ± 2.2% |
| YouGov/Economist[263] | July 31 – August 1, 2016 | 46% | 43% | 3 | 1,300 | ± 4% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[264] | July 28 – August 1, 2016 | 43% | 35% | 8 | 1,289 | ± 3% |
| USC/Los Angeles Times[265] | July 26 – August 1, 2016 | 43% | 45% | 2 | 2,171 | ± 2.5% |
| CNN/ORC[266] | July 29–31, 2016 | 52% | 43% | 9 | 1,003 | ± 3% |
| CBS News[267] | July 29–31, 2016 | 47% | 41% | 6 | 1,131 | ± 3% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[268] | July 25–31, 2016 | 50% | 42% | 8 | 12,742 | ± 1.2% |
| Morning Consult[269] | July 29–30, 2016 | 43% | 40% | 3 | 1,931 | ± 2% |
| Public Policy Polling[270] | July 29–30, 2016 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 1,276 | ± 2.7% |
Graphical summaries
Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Jeb Bush
Polls conducted in 2016
Polls in 2016
Polls conducted in 2015
Polls in 2015
Polls conducted in 2014
Polls in 2014
Polls conducted in 2013
Polls in 2013
Three-way race
| Poll source | Date | Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gary Johnson Libertarian |
Leading by (points) |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Consumer Surveys[271] | November 1–7, 2016 | 38% | 36% | 5% | 2 | 26,574 | ± 0.65% |
| Angus Reid Institute[272] | November 1–4, 2016 | 48% | 44% | 6% | 4 | 1,151 | ± 2.9% |
| RAND American Life Panel[273] | October 20 – November 1, 2016 | 44% | 35% | 8% | 9 | 2,269 | ± 1.9% |
| Google Consumer Surveys[274] | October 20–24, 2016 | 39% | 34% | 6% | 5 | 21,240 | ±0.73% |
| Public Policy Polling[275] | October 20–21, 2016 | 46% | 40% | 5% | 6 | 990 | ±3.18% |
| Google Consumer Surveys[276] | October 15–19, 2016 | 39% | 34% | 6% | 5 | 22,826 | ±0.70% |
| Google Consumer Surveys[277] | October 10–14, 2016 | 38% | 33% | 7% | 5 | 19,900 | ±0.75% |
| Public Religion Research Institute/The Atlantic[278] | September 28 – October 2, 2016 | 47% | 41% | 3% | 6 | 609 | ±3.6% |
| Google Consumer Surveys[279] | September 27 – October 3, 2016 | 39% | 34% | 7% | 5 | 22,006 | ±0.71% |
| One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[144] | September 27, 2016 | 47% | 43% | 6% | 4 | 3,386 | ±1.7% |
| Google Consumer Surveys[280] | September 14–20, 2016 | 36% | 35% | 8% | 1 | 20,864 | ±0.73% |
Polls up to August 2, when three-way polls paused
| Poll source | Date | Democratic candidate | % | Republican candidate | % | Libertarian candidate | % | Lead margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[261]
Sample size: 1,022 |
July 31 – August 2, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 44% | Donald Trump | 35% | Gary Johnson | 12% | 9 |
| Penn Schoen Berland[281]
Sample size: 1,000 |
July 29 – August 1, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 45% | Donald Trump | 40% | Gary Johnson | 15% | 5 |
| CBS News[267]
Sample size: 1,131 |
July 29–31, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 43% | Donald Trump | 38% | Gary Johnson | 10% | 5 |
| Morning Consult[269]
Sample size: 1,931 |
July 29–30, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 41% | Donald Trump | 36% | Gary Johnson | 11% | 5 |
| Morning Consult[282]
Sample size: 2,502 |
July 22–24, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 36% | Donald Trump | 40% | Gary Johnson | 10% | 4 |
| CBS News[283]
Sample size: 1,118 adults |
July 22–24, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 39% | Donald Trump | 40% | Gary Johnson | 12% | 1 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[284]
Sample size: 900 |
July 13–18, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 43% | Donald Trump | 40% | Gary Johnson | 11% | 3 |
| Morning Consult[285]
Sample size: 2,002 |
July 14–16, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 38% | Donald Trump | 35% | Gary Johnson | 11% | 3 |
| CBS News/New York Times[286]
Sample size: 1,358 |
July 8–12, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 36% | Donald Trump | 36% | Gary Johnson | 12% | Tied |
| Morning Consult[287]
Sample size: 2,001 |
July 8–10, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 39% | Donald Trump | 37% | Gary Johnson | 12% | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports[288]
Sample size: 1,000 |
July 5, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 38% | Donald Trump | 40% | Gary Johnson | 9% | 2 |
| Morning Consult[289]
Sample size: 2,001 |
June 30 – July 4, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 38% | Donald Trump | 37% | Gary Johnson | 11% | 1 |
| Fox News[290]
Sample size: 1,017 |
June 26–28, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 41% | Donald Trump | 36% | Gary Johnson | 10% | 5 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[291]
Sample size: 900 |
June 23–28, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 48% | Donald Trump | 37% | Gary Johnson | 8% | 11 |
| The Economist/YouGov[292]
Sample size: 1,300 |
June 24–27, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 40% | Donald Trump | 35% | Gary Johnson | 8% | 5 |
| Morning Consult[293]
Sample size: 4001 |
June 24–27, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 39% | Donald Trump | 36% | Gary Johnson | 11% | 3 |
| Pew Research[294]
Sample size: 1,655 |
June 15–26, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 45% | Donald Trump | 36% | Gary Johnson | 11% | 9 |
| Morning Consult[295]
Sample size: 3891 |
June 15–20, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 38% | Donald Trump | 38% | Gary Johnson | 10% | Tied |
| CBS News[296]
Sample size: 1048 |
June 9–13, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 39% | Donald Trump | 32% | Gary Johnson | 11% | 7 |
| Bloomberg Politics[297]
Sample size: 750 |
June 10–13, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 49% | Donald Trump | 37% | Gary Johnson | 9% | 12 |
| Morning Consult[298]
Sample size: 1004 |
June 8–9, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 39% | Donald Trump | 33% | Gary Johnson | 10% | 6 |
| Fox News[299]
Sample size: 1004 |
June 5–8, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 39% | Donald Trump | 36% | Gary Johnson | 12% | 3 |
| Rasmussen Report[300]
Sample size: 1000 |
June 6–7, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 38% | Donald Trump | 37% | Gary Johnson | 8% | 1 |
| Morning Consult[301]
Sample size: 2001 |
June 1–4, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 37% | Donald Trump | 35% | Gary Johnson (identified as Independent) | 10% | 2 |
| Hillary Clinton | 36% | Donald Trump | 37% | Gary Johnson (identified as Libertarian) | 10% | 1 | ||
| Morning Consult[302]
Sample size: 2001 |
May 19–23, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 38% | Donald Trump | 35% | Gary Johnson | 10% | 3 |
| Fox News[303]
Sample size: 1,021 |
May 14–17, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 39% | Donald Trump | 42% | Gary Johnson | 10% | 3 |
| Monmouth University[304]
Sample size: 848 |
March 17–20, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 42% | Donald Trump | 34% | Gary Johnson | 11% | 8 |
| Poll source | Date | Democratic candidate | % | Republican candidate | % | Third candidate | % | Lead margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABC News/Washington Post[305]
Sample size: 823 |
May 16–19, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 37% | Donald Trump | 35% | Mitt Romney | 22% | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling[306]
Sample size: 1,083 |
March 24–26, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 42% | Donald Trump | 37% | Deez Nuts | 10% | 5 |
| Bernie Sanders | 43% | Donald Trump | 37% | Deez Nuts | 8% | 6 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 44% | Donald Trump | 35% | Rick Perry | 12% | 9 | ||
| Bernie Sanders | 43% | Donald Trump | 34% | Rick Perry | 12% | 9 | ||
| Quinnipiac University[307]
Sample size: 1,342 |
February 10–15, 2016 | Bernie Sanders | 38% | Donald Trump | 38% | Michael Bloomberg | 12% | Tied |
| Bernie Sanders | 39% | Ted Cruz | 33% | Michael Bloomberg | 14% | 6 | ||
| Suffolk University/USA Today[308]
Sample size: 1,000 |
February 11–15, 2016 | Bernie Sanders | 30% | Donald Trump | 37% | Michael Bloomberg | 16% | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University[309]
Sample size: 1,125 |
February 2–4, 2016 | Bernie Sanders | 35% | Donald Trump | 36% | Michael Bloomberg | 15% | 1 |
| Bernie Sanders | 37% | Ted Cruz | 36% | Michael Bloomberg | 15% | 1 | ||
| Public Policy Polling[310]
Sample size: 1,236 |
February 2–3, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 41% | Donald Trump | 37% | Michael Bloomberg | 11% | 4 |
| Bernie Sanders | 36% | Donald Trump | 39% | Michael Bloomberg | 13% | 3 | ||
| Luntz Global[311]
Sample size: 900 |
January 26–27, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 33% | Donald Trump | 37% | Michael Bloomberg | 29% | 4 |
| Hillary Clinton | 37% | Ted Cruz | 35% | Michael Bloomberg | 28% | 2 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 35% | Marco Rubio | 38% | Michael Bloomberg | 28% | 3 | ||
| Morning Consult[312]
Sample size: 1,439 |
January 21–24, 2016 | Bernie Sanders | 35% | Donald Trump | 34% | Michael Bloomberg | 12% | 1 |
| Bernie Sanders | 36% | Ted Cruz | 28% | Michael Bloomberg | 11% | 8 | ||
| Bernie Sanders | 36% | Marco Rubio | 29% | Michael Bloomberg | 10% | 7 | ||
| Morning Consult[313]
Sample size: 4,060 |
January 14–17, 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 38% | Ted Cruz | 34% | Michael Bloomberg | 11% | 4 |
| Hillary Clinton | 38% | Marco Rubio | 33% | Michael Bloomberg | 10% | 5 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 36% | Donald Trump | 37% | Michael Bloomberg | 13% | 1 | ||
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute[314] | November 29 – December 3, 2015 | Hillary Clinton | 45.4% | Ted Cruz | 19.9% | Donald Trump | 26.1% | 19.3 |
| Hillary Clinton | 44.8% | Carly Fiorina | 14.9% | Donald Trump | 29.6% | 15.2 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 44.0% | Ben Carson | 20.1% | Donald Trump | 25.7% | 18.3 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 43.3% | Marco Rubio | 21.8% | Donald Trump | 25.9% | 17.4 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 43.3% | Jeb Bush | 19.6% | Donald Trump | 29.5% | 13.8 | ||
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute[315] Margin of error ±6.0% |
October 17–22, 2015 | Hillary Clinton | 42.7% | Jeb Bush | 22.8% | Donald Trump | 24.2% | 18.5 |
| Hillary Clinton | 43.7% | Carly Fiorina | 22.6% | Donald Trump | 23.8% | 19.9 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 43.1% | Ben Carson | 27.9% | Donald Trump | 20.2% | 15.2 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 43.7% | Marco Rubio | 24.6% | Donald Trump | 22.9% | 19.1 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 44.9% | Ted Cruz | 18.6% | Donald Trump | 24.1% | 20.8 | ||
| Public Policy Polling[316] Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 1254 |
August 28–30, 2015 | Hillary Clinton | 42% | Jeb Bush | 23% | Donald Trump | 27% | 15 |
| Fox News[317] Sample size: 1008 |
August 11–13, 2015 | Hillary Clinton | 42% | Carly Fiorina | 24% | Donald Trump | 25% | 17 |
| Hillary Clinton | 42% | Marco Rubio | 30% | Donald Trump | 22% | 12 | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 42% | Jeb Bush | 29% | Donald Trump | 23% | 13 | ||
| McClatchy-Marist[318] Margin of error: ±2.8% Sample size: 964 |
July 22–28, 2015 | Hillary Clinton | 44% | Jeb Bush | 29% | Donald Trump | 20% | 15 |
| Public Policy Polling[319] Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 1,087 |
July 20–21, 2015 | Hillary Clinton | 43% | Jeb Bush | 25% | Donald Trump | 23% | 18 |
| ABC News/Washington Post[320] Margin of error: ±4.0% Sample size: 815 |
July 16–19, 2015 | Hillary Clinton | 47% | Jeb Bush | 30% | Donald Trump | 20% | 17 |
Four-way race
| Poll source | Date | Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gary Johnson Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Leading by (points) |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/The Economist[5] | November 4–7, 2016 | 45% | 41% | 5% | 2% | 4 | 3,677 | ± 1.7% |
| Insights West[321] | November 4–7, 2016 | 49% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 4 | 940 | ± 3.2% |
| Bloomberg News/Selzer[6] | November 4–6, 2016 | 44% | 41% | 4% | 2% | 3 | 799 | ± 3.5% |
| Gravis Marketing[322] | November 3–6, 2016 | 47% | 43% | 3% | 2% | 4 | 16,639 | ± 0.8% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[7] | November 3–6, 2016 | 47% | 43% | 4% | 1% | 4 | 2,220 | ± 2.5% |
| Fox News[8] | November 3–6, 2016 | 48% | 44% | 3% | 2% | 4 | 1,295 | ± 2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[9] | November 3–6, 2016 | 41% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 2 | 1,026 | ± 3.1% |
| Monmouth University[10] | November 3–6, 2016 | 50% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 6 | 802 | ± 3.6% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[11] | November 2–6, 2016 | 42% | 39% | 6% | 3% | 3 | 2,195 | ± 2.4% |
| CBS News/New York Times[12] | November 2–6, 2016 | 45% | 41% | 5% | 2% | 4 | 1,426 | ± 3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[323] | November 2–6, 2016 | 45% | 43% | 4% | 2% | 2 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[13] | October 31– November 6, 2016 | 47% | 41% | 6% | 3% | 6 | 70,194 | ± 1.0% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[324] | November 4–5, 2016 | 45% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 3 | 1,482 | ± 3.0% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[15] | November 3–5, 2016 | 44% | 40% | 6% | 2% | 4 | 1,282 | ± 2.73% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[16] | November 2–5, 2016 | 47% | 43% | 4% | 2% | 4 | 1,937 | ± 2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[17] | November 2–5, 2016 | 43% | 44% | 5% | 2% | 1 | 903 | ± 3.3% |
| Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[325] | November 1–5, 2016 | 48% | 44% | 4% | 2% | 4 | 1,009 | ± 3.1% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[20] | November 1–4, 2016 | 48% | 43% | 4% | 2% | 5 | 1,685 | ± 2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[21] | November 1–4, 2016 | 44% | 44% | 5% | 2% | Tied | 804 | ± 3.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[22] | October 31 – November 4, 2016 | 43% | 39% | 6% | 2% | 4 | 2,244 | ± 2.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[326] | November 1–3, 2016 | 44% | 44% | 4% | 1% | Tied | 1,500 | ± 2.5% |
| Fox News[25] | November 1–3, 2016 | 45% | 43% | 5% | 2% | 2 | 1,107 | ± 3.0% |
| McClatchy/Marist[26] | November 1–3, 2016 | 44% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 1 | 940 | ± 3.2% |
| IBD/TIPP[29] | October 30 – November 3, 2016 | 44% | 44% | 4% | 2% | Tied | 898 | ± 3.3% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[28] | October 31 – November 3, 2016 | 47% | 43% | 4% | 2% | 4 | 1,419 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[27] | October 30 – November 3, 2016 | 44% | 37% | 6% | 2% | 7 | 2,021 | ± 2.6% |
| Gravis Marketing/Breitbart News[327] | November 1–2, 2016 | 47% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 2 | 2,435 | ± 2.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[328] | October 31 – November 2, 2016 | 42% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 3 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[31] | October 30 – November 2, 2016 | 47% | 44% | 3% | 2% | 3 | 1,151 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[33] | October 29 – November 2, 2016 | 44% | 44% | 4% | 2% | Tied | 867 | ± 3.4% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[32] | October 29 – November 2, 2016 | 45% | 37% | 5% | 2% | 8 | 1,858 | ± 2.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[329] | October 30 – November 1, 2016 | 44% | 44% | 5% | 2% | Tied | 1,500 | ± 2.5% |
| YouGov/Economist[38] | October 30 – November 1, 2016 | 46% | 43% | 4% | 2% | 3 | 1,233 | ± 3.2% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[35] | October 29 – November 1, 2016 | 47% | 45% | 3% | 2% | 2 | 1,167 | ± 3.0% |
| CBS News/New York Times[36] | October 28 – November 1, 2016 | 45% | 42% | 5% | 4% | 3 | 862 | ± 3.4% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[37] | October 28 – November 1, 2016 | 55% | 47% | 5% | 2% | 8 | 1,772 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[39] | October 27 – November 1, 2016 | 44% | 44% | 4% | 2% | Tied | 862 | ± 3.4% |
| One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[42] | October 31, 2016 | 46% | 45% | 4% | 2% | 1 | 5,360 | ± 1.3% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[43] | October 28–31, 2016 | 46% | 46% | 3% | 2% | Tied | 1,167 | ± 3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[330] | October 27–31, 2016 | 45% | 45% | 5% | 2% | Tied | 1,500 | ± 2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[44] | October 26–31, 2016 | 45% | 44% | 4% | 2% | 1 | 1,018 | ± 3.2% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[45] | October 29–30, 2016 | 42% | 39% | 7% | 5% | 3 | 1,772 | ±2.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[47] | October 27–30, 2016 | 45% | 46% | 3% | 2% | 1 | 1,167 | ± 3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[48] | October 26–30, 2016 | 43% | 37% | 6% | 1% | 6 | 1,264 | ± 3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[331] | October 26–30, 2016 | 45% | 42% | 5% | 2% | 3 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[49] | October 25–30, 2016 | 45% | 44% | 4% | 2% | 1 | 993 | ± 3.2% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[51] | October 24–30, 2016 | 47% | 41% | 6% | 3% | 6 | 40,816 | ±1.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[52] | October 26–29, 2016 | 46% | 45% | 4% | 2% | 1 | 1,165 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[53] | October 24–29, 2016 | 44% | 42% | 6% | 2% | 2 | 1,039 | ± 3.3% |
| Red Oak Strategic/Google Consumer Surveys[332] | October 27–28, 2016 | 37% | 37% | 6% | 2% | Tied | 943 | ± 3.7% |
| Morning Consult[55] | October 27–28, 2016 | 42% | 39% | 8% | 4% | 3 | 1,794 | ± 2.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[56] | October 25–28, 2016 | 46% | 45% | 4% | 2% | 1 | 1,160 | ± 3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[57] | October 23–28, 2016 | 45% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 4 | 1,013 | ± 3.3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[333] | October 25–27, 2016 | 45% | 45% | 3% | 2% | Tied | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[58] | October 24–27, 2016 | 47% | 45% | 4% | 2% | 2 | 1,148 | ±3.0% |
| IBD/TIPP[59] | October 22–27, 2016 | 44% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 3 | 973 | ± 3.3% |
| Gravis Marketing/Breitbart[334] | October 25–26, 2016 | 46% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 1 | 1,824 | ±2.3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[335] | October 24–26, 2016 | 45% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 1 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[62] | October 23–26, 2016 | 48% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 4 | 1,150 | ±3.0% |
| YouGov/Economist[63] | October 22–26, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 4% | 2% | 5 | 1,376 | ±3.1% |
| Saint Leo University[336] | October 22–26, 2016 | 45% | 34% | 6% | 2% | 11 | 1,050 | ±% |
| IBD/TIPP[64] | October 21–26, 2016 | 43% | 41% | 8% | 2% | 2 | 945 | ± 3.3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[337] | October 23–25, 2016 | 44% | 43% | 4% | 1% | 1 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Fox News[66] | October 22–25, 2016 | 44% | 41% | 7% | 3% | 3 | 1,221 | ±2.5% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[67] | October 22–25, 2016 | 48% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 6 | 1,135 | ±3.0% |
| Pew Research Center[68] | October 20–25, 2016 | 46% | 40% | 6% | 3% | 6 | 2,120 | ± 2.4% |
| IBD/TIPP[69] | October 20–25, 2016 | 42% | 41% | 8% | 3% | 1 | 921 | ± 3.3% |
| CNBC[72] | October 21–24, 2016 | 43% | 34% | 7% | 2% | 9 | 804 | ± 3.5% |
| ABC News[73] | October 21–24, 2016 | 49% | 40% | 5% | 2% | 9 | 1,119 | ±3.0% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[74] | October 21–24, 2016 | 50% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 12 | 900 | ± 3.27% |
| Associated Press/GFK[75] | October 20–24, 2016 | 51% | 37% | 6% | 2% | 14 | 1,546 | ± 2.75% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[76] | October 20–24, 2016 | 47% | 38% | 4% | 2% | 9 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[77] | October 20–24, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 7% | 2% | 4 | 1,170 | ±3.3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[338] | October 20–24, 2016 | 43% | 42% | 5% | 2% | 1 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[78] | October 19–24, 2016 | 42% | 41% | 8% | 3% | 1 | 873 | ± 3.6% |
| ABC News[80] | October 20–23, 2016 | 50% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 12 | 1,155 | ±3.0% |
| CNN/ORC[81] | October 20–23, 2016 | 49% | 44% | 3% | 2% | 5 | 779 | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[339] | October 19–23, 2016 | 41% | 43% | 5% | 3% | 2 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[82] | October 18–23, 2016 | 41% | 41% | 7% | 3% | Tied | 815 | ± 3.6% |
| Centre College[340] | October 18–23, 2016 | 45% | 40% | 6% | 1% | 5 | 569 | ±4.1% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[83] | October 17–23, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 7% | 3% | 5 | 32,225 | ± 1.0% |
| ABC News[85] | October 20–22, 2016 | 50% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 12 | 1,391 | ±3.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[86] | October 17–22, 2016 | 41% | 43% | 7% | 3% | 2 | 783 | ± 3.6% |
| IBD/TIPP[87] | October 16–21, 2016 | 40% | 42% | 7% | 4% | 2 | 791 | ±3.6% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[88] | October 19–20, 2016 | 42% | 36% | 9% | 4% | 6 | 1,395 | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[341] | October 18–20, 2016 | 41% | 43% | 5% | 3% | 2 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[92] | October 14–20, 2016 | 43% | 39% | 6% | 2% | 4 | 1,640 | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[342] | October 17–19, 2016 | 40% | 43% | 6% | 3% | 3 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| IBD/TIPP[93] | October 14–19, 2016 | 40% | 41% | 7% | 5% | 1 | 779 | ±3.6% |
| Quinnipiac University[94] | October 17–18, 2016 | 47% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 7 | 1,007 | ±3.1% |
| YouGov/Economist[95] | October 15–18, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 4 | 1,300 | ±3.9% |
| IBD/TIPP[96] | October 13–18, 2016 | 40% | 41% | 8% | 6% | 1 | 782 | ±3.6% |
| Fox News[97] | October 15–17, 2016 | 45% | 39% | 5% | 3% | 6 | 912 | ±3.0% |
| Bloomberg Politics[98] | October 14–17, 2016 | 47% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 9 | 1,006 | ±3.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports[343] | October 13–17, 2016 | 42% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 1 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[99] | October 13–17, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 4 | 1,190 | ±3.2% |
| Monmouth University[102] | October 14–16, 2016 | 50% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 12 | 805 | ±3.5% |
| CBS News[103] | October 12–16, 2016 | 47% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 9 | 1,411 | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[344] | October 12–16, 2016 | 43% | 41% | 5% | 2% | 2 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[104] | October 10–16, 2016 | 46% | 40% | 8% | 4% | 6 | 24,804 | ± 1.0% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[106] | October 13–15, 2016 | 42% | 36% | 10% | 3% | 6 | 1,737 | ±2.0% |
| SurveyUSA/Boston Globe[345] | October 11–14, 2016 | 46% | 36% | 5% | 2% | 10 | 845 | ±3.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[346] | October 11–13, 2016 | 41% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 2 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[107] | October 10–13, 2016 | 48% | 37% | 7% | 2% | 11 | 1,000 | ±3.1% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[108] | October 10–13, 2016 | 47% | 43% | 5% | 2% | 4 | 740 | ±4.0% |
| Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[109] | October 9–13, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 5 | 1,011 | ±3.1% |
| George Washington University[110] | October 8–13, 2016 | 47% | 39% | 8% | 2% | 8 | 1,000 | ±3.1% |
| Fox News[112] | October 10–12, 2016 | 45% | 38% | 7% | 3% | 7 | 917 | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[347] | October 10–12, 2016 | 41% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 2 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Insights West[348] | October 10–11, 2016 | 47% | 41% | 7% | 3% | 6 | 953 | ±3.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[349] | October 9–11, 2016 | 43% | 39% | 7% | 2% | 4 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[113] | October 10, 2016 | 42% | 37% | 10% | 3% | 5 | 1,757 | ±3.0% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[114] | October 8–10, 2016 | 45% | 36% | 8% | 2% | 9 | 806 | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[350] | October 6–10, 2016 | 44% | 39% | 7% | 2% | 5 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[115] | October 6–10, 2016 | 44% | 37% | 6% | 2% | 7 | 2,363 | ±2.3% |
| Pew Research[117] | September 27 – October 10, 2016 | 46% | 39% | 10% | 4% | 7 | 3,616 | ± 2.9% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[118] | October 8–9, 2016 | 46% | 35% | 9% | 2% | 11 | 422 | ±4.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[351] | October 5–9, 2016 | 45% | 38% | 7% | 2% | 7 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Public Religion Research Institute/The Atlantic[352] | October 5–9, 2016 | 49% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 11 | 886 | ±3.9% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[119] | October 3–9, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 8% | 3% | 5 | 23,329 | ±1.0% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[121] | October 8, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 4 | 1,390 | ±3.0% |
| YouGov/Economist[122] | October 7–8, 2016 | 44% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 6 | 1,300 | ±4.3% |
| Morning Consult[123] | October 5–6, 2016 | 41% | 39% | 9% | 3% | 2 | 1,775 | ±2.0% |
| Quinnipiac University[124] | October 5–6, 2016 | 45% | 40% | 6% | 2% | 5 | 1,064 | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[353] | October 4–6, 2016 | 43% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 1 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Fox News[125] | October 3–6, 2016 | 44% | 42% | 6% | 2% | 2 | 896 | ±3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[126] | September 30 – October 6, 2016 | 42% | 37% | 8% | 2% | 5 | 1,695 | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[354] | October 3–5, 2016 | 41% | 43% | 8% | 3% | 2 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[355] | October 3, 2016 | 44% | 44% | 5% | 1% | Tied | 1,690 | ±2.5% |
| YouGov/Economist[130] | October 1–3, 2016 | 43% | 40% | 5% | 3% | 3 | 911 | ±3.9% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[131] | September 29 – October 3, 2016 | 42% | 36% | 8% | 2% | 6 | 1,239 | ±3.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[356] | September 29 – October 3, 2016 | 42% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 1 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Politico/Morning Consult[132] | September 30 – October 2, 2016 | 42% | 36% | 9% | 3% | 6 | 1,778 | ±2.0% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University[133] | September 28 – October 2, 2016 | 45% | 36% | 11% | 3% | 9 | 385 | ±5.0% |
| CBS News/New York Times[134] | September 28 – October 2, 2016 | 45% | 41% | 8% | 3% | 4 | 1,217 | ±3.0% |
| CNN/ORC[135] | September 28 – October 2, 2016 | 47% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 5 | N/A | ±N/A% |
| Rasmussen Reports[357] | September 28 – October 2, 2016 | 43% | 40% | 8% | 2% | 3 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[136] | September 26 – October 2, 2016 | 46% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 6 | 26,925 | ±1.0% |
| Fox News[139] | September 27–29, 2016 | 43% | 40% | 8% | 4% | 3 | 911 | ±3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[140] | September 23–29, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 7% | 3% | 4 | 2,501 | ±2.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[358] | September 26–28, 2016 | 42% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 1 | 1,500 | ±2.5% |
| Morning Consult[146] | September 26–27, 2016 | 41% | 38% | 8% | 4% | 3 | 1,253 | ±3.0% |
| Public Religion Research Institute[359] | September 1–27, 2016 | 49% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 8 | 2,010 | ±2.8% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[148] | September 22–26, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 7% | 2% | 4 | 1,041 | ±3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University[149] | September 22–25, 2016 | 44% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 1 | 1,115 | ±2.9% |
| Monmouth University[150] | September 22–25, 2016 | 46% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 4 | 729 | ±3.6% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[151] | September 19–25, 2016 | 45% | 40% | 10% | 3% | 5 | 13,598 | ±1.1% |
| Morning Consult[154] | September 22–24, 2016 | 38% | 39% | 9% | 4% | 1 | 1,712 | ±2.0% |
| YouGov/Economist[360] | September 22–24, 2016 | 44% | 41% | 5% | 2% | 3 | 948 | ±3.8% |
| Bloomberg/Selzer[155] | September 21–24, 2016 | 41% | 43% | 8% | 4% | 2 | 1,002 | ±3.1% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[156] | September 19–22, 2016 | 46% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 2 | 651 | ±4.5% |
| Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[361] | September 18–22, 2016 | 45% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 2 | 1,017 | ±3.1% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[157] | September 16–22, 2016 | 39% | 37% | 7% | 2% | 2 | 1,559 | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[362] | September 20–21, 2016 | 39% | 44% | 8% | 2% | 5 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[citation needed] | September 20, 2016 | 44% | 40% | 5% | 2% | 4 | 1,560 | ±2.5% |
| McClatchy/Marist[160] | September 15–20, 2016 | 45% | 39% | 10% | 4% | 6 | 758 | ±3.6% |
| YouGov/Economist[162] | September 18–19, 2016 | 40% | 38% | 7% | 2% | 2 | 936 | ±4.0% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[163] | September 16–19, 2016 | 43% | 37% | 9% | 3% | 6 | 922 | ±3.2% |
| iCitizen[363] | September 15–19, 2016 | 42% | 37% | 5% | 3% | 5 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[164] | September 15–19, 2016 | 37% | 39% | 7% | 2% | 2 | 1,111 | ±3.4% |
| Associated Press/GFK[165] | September 15–19, 2016 | 45% | 39% | 9% | 2% | 6 | 1,251 | ±2.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[168] | September 12–18, 2016 | 45% | 40% | 10% | 4% | 5 | 13,230 | ±1.2% |
| Morning Consult[364] | September 15–16, 2016 | 42% | 40% | 8% | 3% | 2 | 1,639 | ±2.0% |
| Saint Leo University[365] | September 12–16, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 9% | 4% | 5 | 1,005 | ±3.0% |
| Fox News[173] | September 11–14, 2016 | 41% | 40% | 8% | 3% | 1 | 867 | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[366] | September 12–13, 2016 | 40% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 2 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| Emerson College[367] | September 11–13, 2016 | 41% | 43% | 9% | 2% | 2 | 800 | ±3.4% |
| YouGov/Economist[176] | September 10–13, 2016 | 42% | 40% | 5% | 3% | 2 | 1,087 | ±4.0% |
| CBS News/New York Times[177] | September 9–13, 2016 | 42% | 42% | 8% | 4% | Tied | 1,433 | ±3.0% |
| Quinnipiac University[178] | September 8–13, 2016 | 41% | 39% | 13% | 4% | 2 | 960 | ±3.2% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[181] | September 8–12, 2016 | 39% | 39% | 8% | 2% | Tied | 1,127 | ±3.3% |
| Pew Research[183] | August 16 – September 12, 2016 | 45% | 38% | 10% | 4% | 2 | 3,941 | ±2.6% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[184] | September 5–11, 2016 | 42% | 40% | 11% | 4% | 2 | 16,220 | ±1.1% |
| Gravis Marketing/Breitbart[citation needed] | September 7–8, 2016 | 43% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 3 | 2,348 | ±2.0% |
| Morning Consult[186] | September 6–8, 2016 | 43% | 41% | 10% | 3% | 2 | 1,710 | ±2.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[187] | September 5–8, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 5 | 642 | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[368] | September 6–7, 2016 | 43% | 39% | 9% | 2% | 4 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| YouGov/Economist[191] | September 4–6, 2016 | 40% | 38% | 7% | 5% | 2 | 1,077 | ±4.7% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[193] | September 1–5, 2016 | 40% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 2 | 1,084 | ±3.5% |
| CNN/ORC[195] | September 1–4, 2016 | 43% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 2 | 786 | ±3.5% |
| Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[369] | August 31 – September 4, 2016 | 44% | 41% | 8% | 3% | 3 | 1,025 | ±3.1% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[196] | August 29 – September 4, 2016 | 41% | 37% | 12% | 4% | 4 | 32,226 | ±1.0% |
| Morning Consult[199] | September 1–2, 2016 | 38% | 36% | 9% | 4% | 2 | 2,001 | ±2.0% |
| George Washington University[370] | August 28 – September 1, 2016 | 42% | 40% | 11% | 3% | 2 | 1,000 | ±3.1% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[200] | August 26 – September 1, 2016 | 39% | 39% | 7% | 2% | Tied | 1,804 | ±3.0% |
| IBD/TPP[201] | August 26 – September 1, 2016 | 39% | 39% | 12% | 3% | Tied | 861 | ±3.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[371] | August 29–30, 2016 | 39% | 40% | 7% | 3% | 1 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| Fox News[202] | August 28–30, 2016 | 41% | 39% | 9% | 4% | 2 | 1,011 | ±3.0% |
| YouGov/Economist[372] | August 27–29, 2016 | 42% | 37% | 7% | 3% | 5 | 1,119 | ±4.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[204] | August 25–29, 2016 | 40% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 2 | 1,404 | ±3.0% |
| Suffolk University/USA Today[205] | August 25–29, 2016 | 42% | 35% | 9% | 4% | 7 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| Monmouth University[209] | August 25–28, 2016 | 43% | 36% | 8% | 2% | 7 | 689 | ±3.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[210] | August 22–28, 2016 | 41% | 37% | 11% | 5% | 4 | 24,104 | ±1.0% |
| Morning Consult[213] | August 24–26, 2016 | 39% | 37% | 8% | 3% | 2 | 2,007 | ±2.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[214] | August 22–25, 2016 | 39% | 36% | 7% | 3% | 3 | 1,154 | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports[373] | August 23–24, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 9% | 2% | 4 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[215] | August 20–24, 2016 | 39% | 36% | 7% | 2% | 3 | 1,049 | ±2.9% |
| Quinnipiac University[217] | August 18–24, 2016 | 45% | 38% | 10% | 4% | 7 | 1,498 | ±2.5% |
| Gravis Marketing[374] | August 22–23, 2016 | 42% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 1 | 1,493 | ±2.5% |
| YouGov/Economist[219] | August 19–23, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 6% | 4% | 4 | 1,080 | ±4.1% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[221] | August 18–22, 2016 | 41% | 33% | 7% | 2% | 8 | 1,115 | ±3.0% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[224] | August 15–21, 2016 | 43% | 38% | 11% | 5% | 5 | 17,451 | ±1.1% |
| Morning Consult[226] | August 16–20, 2016 | 39% | 36% | 8% | 4% | 3 | 2,001 | ±2.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[229] | August 13–17, 2016 | 39% | 35% | 7% | 2% | 4 | 1,049 | ±2.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[375] | August 15–16, 2016 | 41% | 39% | 9% | 3% | 2 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| YouGov/Economist[376] | August 11–16, 2016 | 41% | 35% | 7% | 3% | 6 | 1,076 | ±4.1% |
| Pew Research[377] | August 9–16, 2016 | 41% | 37% | 10% | 4% | 4 | 1,567 | ±2.8% |
| Normington, Petts & Associates[233] | August 9–15, 2016 | 45% | 37% | 8% | 4% | 8 | 1,000 | ±3.1% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[236] | August 8–14, 2016 | 43% | 37% | 11% | 4% | 6 | 15,179 | ±1.2% |
| Zogby Analytics[378] | August 12–13, 2016 | 38% | 36% | 8% | 5% | 2 | 1,277 | ±2.8% |
| Morning Consult[235] | August 11–14, 2016 | 39% | 33% | 9% | 4% | 6 | 2,001 | ±2.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[240] | August 6–10, 2016 | 40% | 35% | 7% | 3% | 5 | 974 | ±2.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[379] | August 9–10, 2016 | 43% | 40% | 8% | 2% | 3 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[citation needed] | August 9, 2016 | 42% | 37% | 9% | 3% | 5 | 2,832 | ±1.8% |
| YouGov/Economist[241] | August 6–9, 2016 | 42% | 36% | 9% | 2% | 6 | 1,300 | ±4.2% |
| Bloomberg Politics[243] | August 5–8, 2016 | 44% | 40% | 9% | 4% | 4 | 749 | ±3.6% |
| Princeton Survey[246] | August 4–7, 2016 | 45% | 39% | 2% | 1% | 6 | 1,000 | ±3.9% |
| Monmouth University[380] | August 4–7, 2016 | 46% | 34% | 7% | 2% | 12 | 803 | ±3.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[248] | August 1–7, 2016 | 44% | 38% | 10% | 4% | 6 | 11,480 | ±1.2% |
| Morning Consult[251] | August 4–5, 2016 | 41% | 33% | 9% | 5% | 8 | 2,001 | ±2.0% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[252] | August 1–4, 2016 | 45% | 37% | 8% | 4% | 8 | 1,002 | ±3.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[253] | July 31 – August 4, 2016 | 42% | 40% | 6% | 3% | 2 | 1,154 | ±3.0% |
| IBD/TPP[255] | July 29 – August 4, 2016 | 39% | 35% | 12% | 5% | 4 | 851 | ±3.4% |
| McClatchy/Marist[256] | August 1–3, 2016 | 45% | 31% | 10% | 6% | 14 | 983 | ±3.1% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[257] | July 31 – August 3, 2016 | 43% | 34% | 10% | 5% | 9 | 800 | ±3.5% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[258] | July 30 – August 3, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 4 | 1,072 | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[381] | August 1–2, 2016 | 44% | 40% | 6% | 3% | 4 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| The Economist/YouGov[263] | July 31 – August 1, 2016 | 41% | 36% | 8% | 4% | 5 | 1,300 | ±4.0% |
| CNN/ORC[266] | July 29–31, 2016 | 45% | 37% | 9% | 5% | 8 | 894 | ±3.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[268] | July 25–31, 2016 | 43% | 38% | 9% | 4% | 5 | 12,742 | ±1.2% |
| Public Policy Polling[270] | July 29–30, 2016 | 46% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 5 | 1,276 | ±2.7% |
| RABA Research[382] | July 29, 2016 | 46% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 15 | 956 | ±3.2% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[383] | July 25–29, 2016 | 37% | 37% | 5% | 1% | Tied | 1,788 | ±2.4% |
| YouGov/Economist[384] | July 23–24, 2016 | 40% | 38% | 5% | 3% | 2 | 1,300 | ±4.5% |
| CNN/ORC[385] | July 22–24, 2016 | 39% | 44% | 9% | 3% | 5 | 882 | ±3.5% |
| University of Delaware[386] | July 21–24, 2016 | 46% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 4 | 818 | ±4.0% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[387] | July 18–24, 2016 | 39% | 41% | 10% | 5% | 2 | 12,931 | ±1.2% |
| RABA Research[388] | July 22, 2016 | 39% | 34% | 8% | 3% | 5 | 909 | ±3.3% |
| Echelon Insights[389] | July 21–22, 2016 | 40% | 39% | 3% | 2% | 1 | 912 | ±N/A% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[390] | July 16–20, 2016 | 39% | 35% | 7% | 3% | 4 | 1,522 | ±2.9% |
| YouGov/Economist[391] | July 15–17, 2016 | 40% | 37% | 5% | 4% | 3 | 1,300 | ±4.2% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[392] | July 11–17, 2016 | 39% | 40% | 10% | 5% | 1 | 9,436 | ±1.4% |
| Monmouth University[393] | July 14–16, 2016 | 45% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 2 | 688 | ±3.7% |
| Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[394] | July 13–16, 2016 | 44% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 3 | 1,007 | ±3.1% |
| CNN/ORC[395] | July 13–16, 2016 | 42% | 37% | 13% | 5% | 5 | 872 | ±3.5% |
| icitizen[396] | July 11–14, 2016 | 39% | 35% | 9% | 3% | 4 | 1,000 | ±N/A% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[397] | July 11–14, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 8% | 5% | 4 | 1,003 | ±3.5% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[398] | July 9–13, 2016 | 41% | 35% | 11% | 6% | 6 | 1,000 | ±3.1% |
| The Economist/YouGov[399] | July 9–11, 2016 | 40% | 37% | 5% | 2% | 3 | 1,300 | ±4.2% |
| AP-GfK[400] | July 7–11, 2016 | 40% | 36% | 6% | 2% | 4 | 837 | ±3.3% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[401] | July 4–10, 2016 | 40% | 38% | 11% | 6% | 2 | 7,869 | ±1.4% |
| Raba Research[402] | July 7–9, 2016 | 41% | 29% | 9% | 2% | 12 | 781 | ±3.5% |
| McClatchy/Marist[403] | July 5–9, 2016 | 40% | 35% | 10% | 5% | 5 | 1,249 | ±3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[404] | July 2–6, 2016 | 42% | 33% | 6% | 4% | 9 | 1,345 | ±2.8% |
| The Economist/YouGov[405] | July 2–4, 2016 | 42% | 37% | 4% | 3% | 5 | 1,300 | ±3.9% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[406] | June 27 – July 3, 2016 | 41% | 38% | 9% | 5% | 3 | 10,072 | ±1.3% |
| Suffolk University/USA Today[407] | June 26–29, 2016 | 39% | 35% | 8% | 3% | 4 | 1,000 | ±3.0% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[408] | June 25–29, 2016 | 42% | 31% | 5% | 4% | 11 | 1,247 | ±2.8% |
| IBD/TIPP[409] | June 24–29, 2016 | 37% | 36% | 9% | 5% | 1 | 837 | ±3.5% |
| Public Policy Polling[410] | June 27–28, 2016 | 45% | 41% | 5% | 2% | 4 | 947 | ±3.2% |
| Quinnipiac University[411] | June 21–27, 2016 | 39% | 37% | 8% | 4% | 2 | 1,610 | ±2.4% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[412] | June 20–26, 2016 | 42% | 36% | 9% | 5% | 6 | 5,818 | ±1.8% |
| ABC News/Washington Post[413] | June 20–23, 2016 | 47% | 37% | 7% | 3% | 10 | 836 | ±4.0% |
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal[414] | June 19–23, 2016 | 39% | 38% | 10% | 6% | 1 | 1,000 | ±3.1% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[415] | June 18–22, 2016 | 43% | 34% | 6% | 5% | 9 | 1,339 | ±2.8% |
| CNN/ORC[416] | June 16–19, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 9% | 7% | 4 | 891 | ±3.5% |
| Monmouth University[417] | June 15–19, 2016 | 42% | 36% | 9% | 4% | 6 | 803 | ±3.5% |
| NBC News/SurveyMonkey[418] | June 13–19, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 9% | 5% | 4 | 16,135 | ±1.1% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[419] | June 11–15, 2016 | 39% | 29% | 6% | 4% | 10 | 1,323 | ±2.8% |
| NBC/Survey Monkey[420] | June 6–12, 2016 | 42% | 38% | 9% | 5% | 4 | 10,604 | ±1.3% |
| SurveyUSA[421] | June 8, 2016 | 39% | 36% | 6% | 4% | 3 | 1,408 | ±2.7% |
| Zogby[422] | May 30 – June 5, 2016 | 40% | 34% | 6% | 2% | 6 | 837 | ±3.5% |
| NBC News[423] | May 30 – June 5, 2016 | 39% | 40% | 9% | 4% | 1 | 9,240 | ±1.4% |
| Quinnipiac University[424] | May 24–30, 2016 | 40% | 38% | 5% | 3% | 2 | 1,561 | ±2.5% |
Five-way race
| Poll source | Date | Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gary Johnson Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Evan McMullin Independent |
Leading by (points) |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Leo University[336] | October 22–26, 2016 | 42% | 31% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 11 | 1,050 | ±% |
| Public Policy Polling[142] | September 27–28, 2016 | 44% | 40% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 4 | 933 | ±3.2% |
| Echelon Insights[145] | September 26–27, 2016 | 44% | 39% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 5 | 1,833 | – |
| Public Policy Polling[208] | August 26–28, 2016 | 42% | 37% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 5 | 881 | ±3.3% |
Post election analysis
BBC News questioned whether polling should be abandoned due to its abject failure.[1] Forbes magazine contributor astrophysicist Ethan Siegel performed a scientific analysis and raised whether the statistical population sampled for the polling was inaccurate, and cited the cautionary adage "Garbage in, garbage out".[2] He concluded there may have been sampling bias on the part of the pollsters.[2] Siegel compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election.[2] Despite all this, however, nationwide polling was not far off from the actual popular vote result, and in fact very few states had results that deviated from the margin of error in the polling average.
A particular case was the USC/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll, which was different from other polls as it had Donald Trump in the lead more often than not.[425] The poll’s findings caused skepticism, especially from Democrats, who have denounced it and often criticized the LA Times for running it. Before the election, Nate Silver deemed as positive the poll allowed people to assign themselves a probability of voting for either candidate instead of saying they’re 100 percent sure and stated that if people are "going to browbeat a pollster, [let's] do it to a pollster who is doing things cheaply—some of the robopolls qualify—and not one that’s trying to move the ball forward, like the LA Times poll."[426] The LA Times concluded after the preliminary results of the election were published: "That doesn't necessarily mean that a poll conducted online, the way the Daybreak poll is, necessarily will be more accurate than polls conducted by phone. But it is yet another indication that polling needs more, diverse ways to look at public opinion, not fewer."[427]
See also
General election polling
- Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election by demographics, 2016
- Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016
- International opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016
Democratic primary polling
- Nationwide opinion polling for the Democratic Party 2016 presidential primaries
- Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016
Republican primary polling
- Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2016 presidential primaries
- Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
After the election
References
- ^ a b c Peter Barnes, Senior elections and political analyst, BBC News (11 November 2016), "Reality Check: Should we give up on election polling?", BBC News, retrieved 12 November 2016
{{citation}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ a b c d e Ethan Siegel (9 November 2016), "The Science Of Error: How Polling Botched The 2016 Election", Forbes magazine, retrieved 12 November 2016
- ^ http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/politics/Quick-Dirty-Guide-Polls-2016-Elections-396973901.html
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- ^ http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-poll-faq-20161006-snap-story.html
- ^ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/
- ^ http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20161108-story.html