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2013 Nova Scotia general election

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2013 Nova Scotia general election
← 2009 October 8, 2013 (2013-10-08) 40th →
51 seats in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly
26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout59.08%
  Majority party Minority party Third party
 
Leader Stephen McNeil Jamie Baillie Darrell Dexter
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since April 28, 2007 October 26, 2010 June 2, 2002
Leader's seat Annapolis Cumberland South Cole Harbour
ran in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley (lost)
Last election 11 seats, 27.20% 10 seats, 24.54% 31 seats, 45.24%
Seats before 12 7 31
Seats won 33 11 7
Seat change +21 +4 -24
Popular vote 190,112 109,452 111,622
Percentage 45.71% 26.31% 26.84%
Swing +18.51pp +1.77pp -18.40pp
Premier before election

Darrell Dexter
New Democratic

Premier-elect

Stephen McNeil
Liberal

The 2013 Nova Scotia general election, formally the 39th Nova Scotia general election, was held on October 8, 2013, to elect members to the Nova Scotia House of Assembly.

The result of the election was a Liberal victory under the leadership of Stephen McNeil, with the Liberals winning their first election since 1998. The Progressive Conservatives under the leadership of Jamie Baillie improved on their 2009 results and formed the official opposition, despite winning fewer votes than the New Democratic Party (NDP). The NDP, which had won power for the first time in 2009 under the leadership of Darrell Dexter was reduced to third place and became the first one-term government since 1882. Dexter was defeated in the riding he contested in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley by Liberal candidate Tony Ince.

Timeline

  • June 24, 2009 – The New Democratic Party under Darrell Dexter win 31 out of 52 seats. The Progressive Conservatives are reduced to 10 seats and Rodney MacDonald announces that he will step down as leader. Karen Casey is named as interim leader.[1]
  • September 4, 2009 – Antigonish MLA Angus MacIsaac resigns his seat, citing family reasons.
  • September 10, 2009 – Former Premier Rodney MacDonald resigns his Inverness seat in the legislature.
  • October 20, 2009 – By-elections are held in Inverness and Antigonish. PC candidate Allan MacMaster and NDP candidate Maurice Smith are elected, respectively.
  • February 9, 2010 – Richard Hurlburt resigns from the legislature following revelations that he had spent his constituency allowance on a generator and a 40" television, which together cost over $11,000.[2]
  • March 11, 2010 – Dave Wilson resigns from the legislature and is later charged and pleaded guilty.
  • March 25, 2010 – Trevor Zinck is suspended from the NDP caucus over problems with his constituency expenses.[3]
  • June 22, 2010 – Two byelections are held to replace Hurlburt and Wilson in Yarmouth and Glace Bay, respectively. Zach Churchill is elected in Yarmouth and Geoff MacLellan is elected in Glace Bay.
  • August 16, 2010 – Karen Casey announces her resignation as interim leader of the Progressive Conservatives.[4]
  • August 18, 2010 – Jamie Baillie is chosen as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
  • October 26, 2010 – Jamie Baillie wins a byelection and represents the constituency of Cumberland South.
  • January 10, 2011 – PC MLA Karen Casey crosses the floor to join the Liberal caucus.
  • February 14, 2011 – Trevor Zinck is announced as one of four people facing criminal charges in connection with the RCMP investigation into 2010s MLA expense scandal. Zinck is charged with fraud exceeding $5,000, breach of trust by a public officer, and 2 counts of theft over $5,000.[5]
  • March 25, 2011 – Cape Breton North PC MLA Cecil Clarke resigns his seat to run in the 2011 federal election.
  • June 21, 2011 – PC candidate Eddie Orrell wins the by-election in Cape Breton North.
  • April 19, 2012 – Former MLA Dave Wilson is sentenced to 9 months in jail and to a period of 18 months probation for his role in the expenses scandal.[6]
  • June 5, 2012 – The Atlantica Party is deregistered by Elections Nova Scotia.[7]
  • July 27, 2012 – Former MLA Richard Hurlburt is sentenced to 12 months of house arrest, followed by 12 months of probation for his role in the expenses scandal.[8]
  • September 25, 2012 – The Nova Scotia Electoral Boundaries Commission released their final report on riding redistribution, which recommends dropping one seat in the legislature.[9]
  • December 6, 2012 – The law to implement new electoral boundaries in the province was passed in the legislature.[10]
  • May 29, 2013 – Manning MacDonald resigns his seat in the legislature as MLA for Cape Breton South.[11]
  • June 19, 2013 – Trevor Zinck resigns his seat in the legislature after he pleaded guilty to charges of fraud and breach of trust.[12]
  • September 7, 2013 – Premier Darrell Dexter calls a general election for October 8, 2013.

Party standings

Results by party

Party Party leader # of
candidates 		Seats Popular vote
2009 Dissolution Elected % Change # % Change

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal/row

Liberal Stephen McNeil 51 11 12 33 +200.0% 190,112 45.71% +18.51pp

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives/row

Progressive Conservative Jamie Baillie 51 10 7 11 +10.0% 109,452 26.31% +1.77pp

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP/row

New Democratic Darrell Dexter 51 31 31 7 -77.4% 111,622 26.84% -18.40pp
Green John Percy 16 0 0 0 0.0% 3,528 0.85% -1.49pp

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Independents/row

Independents 7 0 0 0 0.0% 1,238 0.30% -0.38pp
  Vacant 1  
Total 176 52 52 51 -0.02% 415,952 100.00% 0.00%

Results by region

Party name HRM C.B. Valley S. Shore Fundy Central Total
Parties winning seats in the legislature

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP/row

New Democratic Party Seats: 2 2 - 2 1 - 7

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP/row

Popular vote: 31.29% 25.16% 17.4% 24.68% 26.26% 31.51% 26.84%

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal/row

Liberal Seats: 18 3 4 3 3 2 33

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal/row

Popular vote: 48.72% 46.89% 52.02% 43.55% 40.68% 28.71% 45.71%

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives/row

Progressive Conservative Seats: - 3 2 1 2 3 11

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives/row

Popular vote: 18.62% 27.69% 27.58% 30.76% 32.01% 39.78% 26.31%
Parties not winning seats in the legislature
Green Popular vote: 0.98% 0.00% 2.11% 1.01% 1.05% 0.00% 0.85%

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Independents/row

Independents Popular vote: 0.39% 0.26% 0.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.3%
Total seats: 20 8 6 6 6 5 51

Retiring incumbents

Liberals
New Democrats

Nominated candidates

Annapolis Valley

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Annapolis | |Henry Spurr |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Stephen McNeil | |Ginny Hurlock[20] | |Ron Neufeld | | |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Stephen McNeil |- |rowspan=3 bgcolor=whitesmoke|Clare-Digby |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3|Dean Kenley |rowspan=3 bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |rowspan=3|Gordon Wilson |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3|Paul Emile LeBlanc[21] |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3|Ian Thurber (Independent) |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Wayne Gaudet |- |colspan=2 align="center"|merged district |- |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Harold Theriault |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Hants West | |Brian Stephens | |Claude O'Hara |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Chuck Porter | |Torin Buzek | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Chuck Porter |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Kings North | |Jim Morton | |Stephen Pearl |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |John Lohr[22] | |Mary Lou Harley | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Jim Morton |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Kings South | |Ramona Jennex |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Keith Irving | |Shane Buchan [21] | |Sheila Richardson | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Ramona Jennex |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Kings West | |Bob Landry |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Leo Glavine | |Jody Frowley | |Barbara Lake | | |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Leo Glavine |}

South Shore

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Argyle-Barrington | |Kenn Baynton | |Kent Blades |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Chris d'Entremont | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Chris d'Entremont |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Chester-St. Margaret's |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Denise Peterson-Rafuse | |Tim Harris | |Janet Irwin [21] | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Denise Peterson-Rafuse |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Lunenburg | |Pam Birdsall |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Suzanne Lohnes-Croft | |Brian Pickings | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Pam Birdsall |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Lunenburg West | |Gary Ramey |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Mark Furey | |David Mitchell [21] | |Robert Pierce | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Gary Ramey |- |rowspan=3 bgcolor=whitesmoke|Queens-Shelburne |rowspan=3 bgcolor="#F4A460"| |rowspan=3|Sterling Belliveau |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3|Benson Frail |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3|Bruce Inglis[23] |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3|Madeline Taylor |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3| |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Sterling Belliveau |- |colspan=2 align="center"|merged district |- |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Vicki Conrad |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Yarmouth | |Charles Webster |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Zach Churchill | |John Cunningham | |Vanessa Goodwin-Clairmont | | |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Zach Churchill |}

Fundy-Northeast

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley | |Gary Burrill | |Tom Martin |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Larry Harrison[24] | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Gary Burrill |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Colchester North | |Jim Wyatt |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Karen Casey | |John MacDonald [21] | | | | |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Karen Casey |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Cumberland North | |Brian Skabar |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Terry Farrell | |Judith Giroux [21] | |Jason Blanch | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Brian Skabar |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Cumberland South | |Larry Duchesne | |Kenny Jackson |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Jamie Baillie [21] | |Bruce McCulloch | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Jamie Baillie |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Hants East | |John MacDonell |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Margaret Miller | |Kim Williams[25] | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |John MacDonell |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Truro–Bible Hill–Millbrook–Salmon River |bgcolor="#F4A460"| |Lenore Zann | |Barry Mellish | |Charles Cox [21] | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Lenore Zann |}

Central Halifax

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Clayton Park West | |Blake Wright |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Diana Whalen | |Jaime D. Allen | | | | |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Diana Whalen |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Fairview-Clayton Park | |Abad Khan |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Patricia Arab | |Travis Price | |Raland Kinley | | Katie Campbell (Independent) |bgcolor="#FFFFFF"| |new riding |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Halifax Armdale | |Drew Moore |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Lena Diab | |Irvine Carvery | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Graham Steele |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Halifax Chebucto | |Gregor Ash |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Joachim Stroink[26] | |Christine Dewell [21] | | | |Michael Marshall (Independent) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Howard Epstein |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Halifax Citadel-Sable Island | |Leonard Preyra |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Labi Kousoulis | |Andrew Black | |Brynn Horley | |Frederic Boileau-Cadieux (Independent) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Leonard Preyra |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Halifax Needham |bgcolor="#F4A460"| |Maureen MacDonald | |Chris Poole | |Mary Hamblin[27] | |Kris MacLellan | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Maureen MacDonald |}

Suburban Halifax

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Bedford | |Mike Poworoznyk |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Kelly Regan | |Joan Christie[28] | |Ian Charles | | |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Kelly Regan

|- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Halifax Atlantic | |Tanis Crosby |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Brendan Maguire | |Ryan Brennan | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Michèle Raymond |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Hammonds Plains-Lucasville | |Peter Lund |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Ben Jessome | |Gina Byrne[29] | | | |Jonathan Dean (Independent) |bgcolor="#FFFFFF"| |new riding |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Sackville-Beaver Bank | |Mat Whynott |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Stephen Gough | |Sarah Reeves [30] | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Mat Whynott |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Sackville-Cobequid |bgcolor="#F4A460"| |Dave Wilson | |Graham Cameron | |Peter Mac Isaac[31] | |John Percy | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Dave Wilson |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Timberlea-Prospect | |Linda Moxsom-Skinner |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Iain Rankin | |Bruce Pretty | |Thomas Trappenberg | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Bill Estabrooks |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank | |Percy Paris |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Bill Horne[32] | |Brian Wong[33] | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Percy Paris |}

Dartmouth/Cole Harbour/Eastern Shore

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage | |Becky Kent |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Joyce Treen[34] | |Lloyd Jackson | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Becky Kent |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Cole Harbour-Portland Valley | |Darrell Dexter |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Tony Ince | |Greg Frampton | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Darrell Dexter |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Dartmouth East | |Deborah Stover |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Andrew Younger | |Mike MacDonell | | | | |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Andrew Younger |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Dartmouth North | |Steve Estey |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Joanne Bernard | |Sean Brownlow | | | | |bgcolor="#FFFFFF"| |Vacant |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Dartmouth South | |Mary Vingoe |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Allan Rowe | |Gord Gamble[35] | | | |Jim Murray (Independent) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Marilyn More |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Eastern Shore | |Sid Prest |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Kevin Murphy[36] | |Stephen Brine | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Sid Prest |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Preston-Dartmouth | |Andre Cain |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Keith Colwell | |Andrew Mecke | | | | |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Keith Colwell |}

Central Nova

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Antigonish | |Maurice Smith |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Randy Delorey[37] | |Darren Thompson | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Maurice Smith |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Guysborough–Eastern Shore–Tracadie | |Jim Boudreau |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Lloyd Hines[38] | |Neil DeCoff | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Jim Boudreau |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Pictou Centre | |Ross Landry | |Bill Muirhead |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Pat Dunn[39] | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Ross Landry |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Pictou East | |Clarrie MacKinnon | |Francois Rochon |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Tim Houston[40] | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Clarrie MacKinnon |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Pictou West | |Charlie Parker | |Glennie Langille |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Karla MacFarlane[41] | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Charlie Parker |}

Cape Breton

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Cape Breton Centre |bgcolor="#F4A460"| |Frank Corbett | |David Wilton[42] | |Edna Lee[43] | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Frank Corbett |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Cape Breton-Richmond | |Bert Lewis |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Michel Samson | |Joe Janega[44] | | | | |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Michel Samson |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Glace Bay | |Mary Beth MacDonald |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Geoff MacLellan | |Tom Bethell | | | | |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| | Geoff MacLellan |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Inverness | |Michelle Smith | |Jackie Rankin[45] |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Allan MacMaster | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Allan MacMaster |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Northside-Westmount | |Cecil Snow | |John Higgins[46] |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Eddie Orrell | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Eddie Orrell |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg | |Delton McDonald | |Josephine Kennedy[47] |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Alfie MacLeod | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Alfie MacLeod |- |rowspan=3 bgcolor=whitesmoke|Sydney-Whitney Pier |rowspan=3 bgcolor="#F4A460"| |rowspan=3|Gordie Gosse |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3|Derek Mombourquette[48] |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3|Leslie MacPhee |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3| |rowspan=3| |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Gordie Gosse |- |colspan=2 align="center"|merged district |- | |Vacant |- |bgcolor=whitesmoke|Victoria-The Lakes | |John Frank Toney |bgcolor="#EA6D6A"| |Pam Eyking[49] | |Keith Bain | | | |Stemer MacLeod (Independent) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives| |Keith Bain |}

Opinion polls

  • Voting intentions during the 2013 election campaign
    Voting intentions during the 2013 election campaign
  • Voting intentions since the 2009 election
    Voting intentions since the 2009 election
Polling Firm Last Day of Polling Link Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP align="center" style="width: 70px"| NDP Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal align="center" style="width: 70px"| Liberal Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives align="center" style="width: 70px"| PC Green
Election 2013 October 8, 2013 HTML 26.84 45.71 26.31 0.85
Forum Research October 7, 2013 PDF 26 48 23 3
Forum Research October 6, 2013 PDF 28 47 23 2
Abacus Data October 6, 2013 PDF 26 46 27 1
Forum Research October 5, 2013 PDF 28 47 23 2
Abacus Data October 5, 2013 PDF 27 48 24 1
Forum Research October 4, 2013 PDF 28 46 24 2
Abacus Data October 3, 2013 PDF 28 46 25 1
Corporate Research Associates October 3, 2013 HTML 31 47 20 2
Corporate Research Associates October 3, 2013 HTML 29 52 17 2
Abacus Data October 2, 2013 PDF 28 50 22 1
Corporate Research Associates October 2, 2013 HTML 27 54 17 2
Abacus Data October 1, 2013 PDF 26 51 23 1
Corporate Research Associates October 1, 2013 HTML 28 55 16 2
Corporate Research Associates September 30, 2013 HTML 27 56 15 2
Corporate Research Associates September 29, 2013 HTML 24 57 17 2
Corporate Research Associates September 28, 2013 HTML 26 56 17 2
Corporate Research Associates September 27, 2013 HTML 26 55 16 2
Corporate Research Associates September 26, 2013 HTML 27 56 16 2
Corporate Research Associates September 25, 2013 HTML 29 53 17 2
Corporate Research Associates September 24, 2013 HTML 27 51 20 2
Corporate Research Associates September 23, 2013 HTML 29 49 20 2
Corporate Research Associates September 22, 2013 HTML 29 49 21 2
Corporate Research Associates September 21, 2013 HTML 29 48 21 2
Corporate Research Associates September 20, 2013 HTML 29 47 21 2
Corporate Research Associates September 19, 2013 HTML 28 47 23 2
Corporate Research Associates September 18, 2013 HTML 28 48 23 2
Corporate Research Associates August 31, 2013 PDF 31 41 25 3
Corporate Research Associates May 30, 2013 PDF 26 45 26 3
Corporate Research Associates March 3, 2013 PDF 32 39 24 5
Corporate Research Associates November 30, 2012 PDF 29 41 27 3
Corporate Research Associates September 2, 2012 PDF 31 41 22 5
Corporate Research Associates June 4, 2012 PDF 35 33 28 4
Corporate Research Associates February 26, 2012 PDF 44 27 25 3
Corporate Research Associates November 29, 2011 PDF 45 22 29 4
Corporate Research Associates August 31, 2011 PDF 41 26 30 4
Corporate Research Associates May 30, 2011 PDF 42 22 31 4
Corporate Research Associates March 3, 2011 PDF 34 35 26 4
Corporate Research Associates November 23, 2010 PDF 38 31 26 4
Corporate Research Associates August 31, 2010 PDF 37 35 21 7
Corporate Research Associates May 31, 2010 PDF 37 35 24 4
Corporate Research Associates February 24, 2010 PDF 46 26 22 5
Corporate Research Associates December 1, 2009 HTML 53 22 21 4
Corporate Research Associates August 29, 2009 PDF 60 18 16 6
Election 2009 June 9, 2009 PDF 45.24 27.20 24.54 2.34

Campaign

The election campaign began the week after Labour Day, when the Legislature would normally have been expected to return to work, had there been no election campaign. As criticism or defence of government policy would dominate the agenda, and by convention electoral mandates are understood to last about four years, despite a lack of fixed election dates, the timing was not controversial.

The Muskrat Falls or Lower Churchill Project, its associated Maritime Link, and electricity policy generally, immediately emerged as the key issue in the early campaign. [1] [2][3][4]. Liberals emphasized Nova Scotia Power's (NSPI) dominance of power generation, and its ability to exclude alternatives through its near-monopoly ownership of the distribution network, covering 129/130 Nova Scotians. They also promised to remove a conservation charge, named for demand response programs that never materialized (though many passive conservation programs run by Efficiency Nova Scotia did prove effective) – instead proposing that NSPI pay for it from its return. Liberals and Conservatives criticized NSPI's unaccountable 9.2% guaranteed rate of return even for unwise investments. Conservatives acknowledged that it was under pressure to meet a tough renewable standard (which they would relax) but also promised to freeze rates. The NDP government continued to defend Muskrat Falls as the only viable alternative to replace coal-fired power, even though this project was before the Nova Scotia Utilities Review Board as of the election call, remained unchanged and this was reflected in their campaign materials – they criticized the Liberal plan as likely to lead to higher power rates. The basis for these criticisms was unclear. However, a similar attempt to open generation competition in New Brunswick failed, in part because New Brunswick Power retained monopoly control of the distribution and transmission network, which intimidates competitors and makes it easy in practice to exclude them.

Other issues in the campaign:

  • A proposed passenger ferry from Yarmouth, Nova Scotia to Portland, Maine, re-instituting summer service that ran for decades until the 1990s, replacing a car-focused service that ran to Bar Harbor, Maine until the NDP government cancelled it. This was of particular interest to South Shore candidates, especially Yarmouth. Associated issues include the collapse of all public transit on the South Shore (with the withdrawal of TryTown from operating public buses from Yarmouth to Halifax) and a general lack of transport strategy, that could leave some of the 130,000 passengers per year stranded. It remained unclear as of election time whether an announced deal to resume service May 1, 2014, had held, and what other transport policy applied [5] Darrell Dexter had referred to stories from Yarmouth about the impact of the loss of ferries a "mythology" [6] which effectively made this a campaign issue before the campaign had begun.

Analysis

On election night, the Liberal Party formed a majority government by a comfortable margin. This was the first time the Liberals had formed government in Nova Scotia since 1999, and their first majority government victory since the 1993 election. From mid 2012, the Liberals had led every public poll and entered the campaign with a 20-point lead over the New Democratic Party (NDP).

While the Liberals had been relatively successful in the Annapolis Valley and on Cape Breton Island during the 2009 election, they were completely shut out of the South Shore, Fundy, and Central Nova Scotia. More importantly, the NDP had dominated the Halifax metropolitan area, winning 14 out of 20 seats. In 2009, the NDP had been able to count on a large number of ridings in and around Halifax, while achieving historic gains across the province, including in traditionally Progressive Conservative (PC) and Liberal areas of rural Nova Scotia. In 2009, the PCs fell from first place to third place in the Legislature, and were completely shut out of the Halifax metropolitan area.

In the 2013 election, NDP support collapsed across the province, as it lost all of its seats in Central Nova Scotia, three of its seats in Fundy, and three of its seats on the South Shore. However, the most important shift was in the Halifax metropolitan area, where NDP support dropped from 54.07% in 2009 to 31.29% in 2013. The party wound up losing 13 of its seats, as the Liberals won 18 of 20 seats in and around Halifax. Strong NDP areas in 2009, like Dartmouth, Central Halifax, and suburban areas north and east of the Harbour swung from the NDP to the Liberals. Among the casualties was Dexter, who lost his own seat to Liberal challenger Tony Ince by 21 votes. He was the first premier since Ernest Armstrong to be defeated in his own riding.

The NDP had very poor vote concentration in the 2013 election. In Halifax, where it won 31.29% of the vote, it won only two seats. While the party finished second in the popular vote ahead of the PCs, its support was spread out around the province and not concentrated in enough areas to translate into seats. Combined with its collapse in Halifax, this left the NDP with only seven seats to the Tories' 11.

References

  1. ^ "Former N.S. health minister chosen interim Tory leader". CBC.ca. June 24, 2009. Retrieved April 1, 2014.
  2. ^ Hurlburt resigns amid spending flap, CBC News, February 9, 2010.
  3. ^ "Zinck admits to drinking, gambling problems". CBC News, March 25, 2010.
  4. ^ Jason, Malloy (August 16, 2009). "Bailiie to lead Progressive Conservative party". Truro Daily News. Retrieved August 19, 2010.
  5. ^ "MLA spending probe in N.S. gets 4 charged". CBC News, February 14, 2011.
  6. ^ "Ex-MLA Wilson sentenced to nine months in jail". CBC News, April 19, 2012. Retrieved April 19, 2012.
  7. ^ chief electoral officer Richard Temporale (June 5, 2012). "The Atlantica Party Association of Nova Scotia Deregistered" (PDF). Elections Nova Scotia. Retrieved August 11, 2012.
  8. ^ "Former N.S. cabinet minister gets house arrest". CBC News. July 27, 2012. Retrieved July 28, 2012.
  9. ^ Final Report Nova Scotia Electoral Boundaries Commission
  10. ^ Contentious electoral map becomes law in N.S. CBC News
  11. ^ "Vacationing Liberal MLA resigns seat". CBC News, May 29, 2013. Retrieved June 20, 2013.
  12. ^ "Embattled Independent MLA Trevor Zinck resigns". CBC News, June 19, 2013. Retrieved June 20, 2013.
  13. ^ "Liberal MLA Wayne Gaudet won't run in next election". CBC News, January 18, 2013. Retrieved January 21, 2013.
  14. ^ "Theriault Not Reoffering in Digby-Annapolis". Nova Scotia Liberal Caucus Office, June 29, 2012. Retrieved June 29, 2012.
  15. ^ Queens MLA not reoffering in next election The Queens County Advance
  16. ^ "MLA Howard Epstein not reoffering in next election". CBC News, January 15, 2013. Retrieved January 17, 2013.
  17. ^ a b "MacDonald takes over as finance minister". The Chronicle Herald, May 30, 2012. Retrieved May 30, 2012.
  18. ^ NDP MLA Marilyn More won't reoffer CBC.ca
  19. ^ "MLA Michele Raymond not reoffering". CBC News, November 23, 2012. Retrieved November 23, 2012.
  20. ^ "Hurlock gets PC nod". The Spectator, May 31, 2013.
  21. ^ a b c d e f g h i PC Nova Scotia: Our Events. The Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia, July 8, 2012. Retrieved August 7, 2012.
  22. ^ Lohr wins PC nomination in Kings North. June 6, 2013.
  23. ^ "Bruce Inglis gets PC nomination". The Queens County Advance, June 4, 2013.
  24. ^ "Reverend acclaimed PC candidate in Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley". Truro Daily News, March 24, 2013. Retrieved May 7, 2013.
  25. ^ "Williams wins PC nomination in Hants East", July 30, 2013.
  26. ^ Liberals Nominate Joachim Stroink for Halifax Chebucto
  27. ^ Hamblin secures PC nomination in Halifax Needham. May 29, 2013.
  28. ^ "Christie to run for Tories in Bedford". The Chronicle Herald, June 19, 2013.
  29. ^ "Byrne secures nomination for Baillie's PC team". July 2, 2013.
  30. ^ http://pcparty.ns.ca/reeves-secures-pc-nod-in-sackville-beaver-bank/
  31. ^ Peter MacIsaac candidate bio. Retrieved August 31, 2013.
  32. ^ Liberals nominate Bill Horne in Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank. April 26, 2013.
  33. ^ Brian Wong to run for Baillie’s Tories in Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank. November 1, 2012.
  34. ^ Joyce Treen to represent Liberals in Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage. June 20, 2013.
  35. ^ Gamble secures PC nomination in Dartmouth South. April 18, 2013.
  36. ^ Eastern Shore Liberals nominate Kevin Murphy. May 7, 2013.
  37. ^ Delorey nominated as Liberal candidate in Antigonish. The Casket, August 18, 2013.
  38. ^ Liberals nominate Lloyd Hines in East Nova. April 26, 2013.
  39. ^ Dunn secures Progressive Conservative nomination in Pictou Centre. January 29, 2013.
  40. ^ Tim Houston wins Progressive Conservative nomination in Pictou East. November 28, 2012.
  41. ^ Karla MacFarlane to run for Baillie’s Progressive Conservatives in Pictou West. July 5, 2012.
  42. ^ Wilton Gets Liberal Nod in Cape Breton Centre. September 30, 2012.
  43. ^ Lee, MacLeod secure Progressive Conservative nominations. January 26, 2013.
  44. ^ Joe Janega to represent Tories in Cape Breton-Richmond. 101.5 FM The Hawk, August 2, 2013.
  45. ^ Inverness Liberal-Jackie Rankin. Retrieved April 30, 2013.
  46. ^ Liberals nominate John Higgins in Northside-Westmount. April 22, 2013.
  47. ^ Liberals nominate Josephine Kennedy in Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg. April 28, 2013.
  48. ^ Sydney Liberal-Derek Mombourquette. Retrieved April 30, 2013.
  49. ^ Liberals nominate Pam Eyking in Victoria-The Lakes. April 27, 2013.
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