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Pre-election pendulum for the 2010 Australian federal election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Based upon the outcome of the 2007 federal election and changes before the 2010 election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 9 National, and 3 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two party preferred basis.[1]

The margins are post-redistribution, leaving some Liberal Party MPs in seats that have a notional majority of Labor Party voters, totalling 88 Labor, 59 coalition, 3 independent. In such cases, the seat is aligned with Labor and the MP's name is highlighted in blue.

The two-party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in categories of safeness following to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[2]

Queensland Liberal and National MPs contested the 2010 federal election as members of the Queensland Liberal National Party. They retained their original party affiliation until after the election.

Government seats
Australian Labor Party
Marginal
Herbert (Qld) Peter Lindsay[note 1] ALP 50.03
Robertson (NSW) Belinda Neal ALP 50.09
Solomon (NT) Damian Hale ALP 50.19
Swan (WA) Steve Irons[note 1] ALP 50.27
Macquarie (NSW) Bob Debus ALP 50.28
Macarthur (NSW) Pat Farmer[note 1] ALP 50.51
Gilmore (NSW) Joanna Gash[note 1] ALP 50.41
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton[note 1] ALP 50.76
Corangamite (Vic) Darren Cheeseman ALP 50.85
Hasluck (WA) Sharryn Jackson ALP 50.85
Bass (Tas) Jodie Campbell ALP 51.03
Bennelong (NSW) Maxine McKew ALP 51.40
Deakin (Vic) Mike Symon ALP 51.41
Longman (Qld) Jon Sullivan ALP 51.87
Flynn (Qld) Chris Trevor ALP 52.24
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 52.29
Braddon (Tas) Sid Sidebottom ALP 52.32
Page (NSW) Janelle Saffin ALP 52.36
Dawson (Qld) James Bidgood ALP 52.59
Forde (Qld) Brett Raguse ALP 53.36
Dobell (NSW) Craig Thomson ALP 53.93
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 54.03
Leichhardt (Qld) Jim Turnour ALP 54.06
Petrie (Qld) Yvette D'Ath ALP 54.21
Brisbane (Qld) Arch Bevis ALP 54.60
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 54.42
Bonner (Qld) Kerry Rea ALP 54.53
Melbourne (Vic) Lindsay Tanner ALP 54.71 v GRN
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 55.05
Greenway (NSW) Louise Markus[note 1] ALP 55.67
Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP 55.98
Fairly safe
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 56.01
Bendigo (Vic) Steve Gibbons ALP 56.13
Lindsay (NSW) David Bradbury ALP 56.28
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP 56.59
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 56.98
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 57.15
Chisholm (Vic) Anna Burke ALP 57.38
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 57.69
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 57.70
Perth (WA) Stephen Smith ALP 57.94
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 57.95
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 58.15
Bruce (Vic) Alan Griffin ALP 58.32
Lyons (Tas) Dick Adams ALP 58.34
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 58.53
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 58.87
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 58.93
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 58.98
Fremantle (WA) Melissa Parke ALP 59.14
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 59.86
Safe
Banks (NSW) Daryl Melham ALP 60.37
Reid (NSW) Laurie Ferguson ALP 60.84
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 61.16
Oxley (Qld) Bernie Ripoll ALP 61.34
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 61.63
Rankin (Qld) Craig Emerson ALP 61.67
Canberra (ACT) Annette Ellis ALP 61.82
Capricornia (Qld) Kirsten Livermore ALP 62.08
Griffith (Qld) Kevin Rudd ALP 62.32
Charlton (NSW) Greg Combet ALP 62.91
Hotham (Vic) Simon Crean ALP 63.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Peter Garrett ALP 63.26
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 63.77
Shortland (NSW) Jill Hall ALP 64.74
Barton (NSW) Robert McClelland ALP 64.94
Fraser (ACT) Bob McMullan ALP 65.07
Werriwa (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 65.07
Denison (Tas) Duncan Kerr ALP 65.29
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 65.32
Lalor (Vic) Julia Gillard ALP 65.53
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 65.68
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Grierson ALP 65.91
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 66.65
Throsby (NSW) Jennie George ALP 66.76
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 66.87
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 68.20
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 69.32
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 69.33
Chifley (NSW) Roger Price ALP 69.68
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP 69.75
Very safe
Scullin (Vic) Harry Jenkins ALP 70.85
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP 71.22
Gellibrand (Vic) Nicola Roxon ALP 71.46
Wills (Vic) Kelvin Thomson ALP 72.41
Fowler (NSW) Julia Irwin ALP 72.57
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP 74.85
Batman (Vic) Martin Ferguson ALP 75.95
Non-government seats
Liberal/National coalition (Liberal National Party in QLD)
Marginal
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP[note 2] 50.00
McEwen (Vic) Fran Bailey LIB 50.02
Paterson (NSW) Bob Baldwin LIB 50.58
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB 50.51
Hughes (NSW) Danna Vale LIB 50.54
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 50.94
Ryan (Qld) Michael Johnson[note 3] LNP[note 2] 51.21
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 51.24
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB 51.27
Cowan (WA) Luke Simpkins LIB 51.28
Hinkler (Qld) Paul Neville LNP[note 2] 51.52
Boothby (SA) Andrew Southcott LIB 52.93
Fairfax (Qld) Alex Somlyay LNP[note 2] 52.97
Calare (NSW) John Cobb NAT 53.46
Fisher (Qld) Peter Slipper LNP[note 2] 53.53
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LIB 53.85
Dunkley (Vic) Bruce Billson LIB 54.04
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 54.43
Canning (WA) Don Randall LIB 54.35
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB 54.79
Wright (Qld) Vacant[note 4] LNP[note 2] 53.79
Aston (Vic) Chris Pearce LIB 55.05
Hume (NSW) Alby Schultz LIB 55.35
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB 55.48
North Sydney (NSW) Joe Hockey LIB 55.51
Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT 55.91
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB 55.93
Fairly safe
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB 56.02
Goldstein (Vic) Andrew Robb LIB 56.05
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB 56.34
Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB 57.04
Mayo (SA) Jamie Briggs LIB 57.06
Wannon (Vic) David Hawker LIB 57.47
Durack (WA) Barry Haase LIB 57.65
Pearce (WA) Judi Moylan LIB 57.69
Groom (Qld) Ian Macfarlane LNP[note 2] 58.22
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB 58.25
Wide Bay (Qld) Warren Truss LNP[note 2] 58.39
McPherson (Qld) Margaret May LNP[note 2] 58.65
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB 58.78
Moore (WA) Mal Washer LIB 58.93
Indi (Vic) Sophie Mirabella LIB 59.19
Barker (SA) Patrick Secker LIB 59.45
Kooyong (Vic) Petro Georgiou LIB 59.53
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB 59.65
Tangney (WA) Dennis Jensen LIB 59.81
Safe
Berowra (NSW) Philip Ruddock LIB 60.01
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP[note 2] 60.43
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB 61.19
Mackellar (NSW) Bronwyn Bishop LIB 62.38
O'Connor (WA) Wilson Tuckey LIB 62.76
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB 63.26
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT 63.67
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP[note 2] 63.80
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB 63.86
Maranoa (Qld) Bruce Scott LNP[note 2] 64.06
Riverina (NSW) Kay Hull NAT 64.55
Murray (Vic) Sharman Stone LIB 68.26
Very safe
Mallee (Vic) John Forrest NAT 71.27
Independents
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter IND 66.29 v ALP
Lyne (NSW) Rob Oakeshott IND 73.87 v NP
New England (NSW) Tony Windsor IND 74.33 v NP

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f This seat was held by a Liberal Party MP, but had a notional majority of Labor Party voters.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l This Queensland seat was contested by a Liberal National Party candidate in the 2010 federal election. Queensland Liberal and National MPs retained their original party affiliation until after the election.
  3. ^ On 20 May 2010, Michael Johnson, who originally contested the seat as a Liberal Party member, was expelled from the Queensland Liberal National Party, and vowed to contest the Division of Ryan as an independent.
  4. ^ The division of Wright was created under the Australian Electoral Commission's 2009 Redistribution of Queensland.

References

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