2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas

2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Turnout	64.65%
	Boozman: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Eldridge: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes
U.S. senator before election; John Boozman; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; John Boozman; Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent senator John Boozman won re-election to a second term in office, becoming the first Republican senator reelected in the history of the state. Former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge was the only Democrat to declare his candidacy. The primaries were held March 1.^[1] This is also the first election that the state has simultaneously voted for a Republican Senate candidate and a Republican presidential candidate.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

John Boozman, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]
Curtis Coleman, businessman, candidate for governor in 2014 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Boozman	Curtis Coleman	Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College^[3]	February 4, 2016	457	± 4.6%	68%	23%	9%

Results

Republican primary results^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	John Boozman (incumbent)	298,039	76.45%
	Republican	Curtis Coleman	91,795	23.55%
Total votes			389,834	100.00%

Democratic primary

Conner Eldridge was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Conner Eldridge, former United States Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas^[5]

Results

Democratic primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Conner Eldridge	214,228	100.00%
Total votes			214,228	100.00%

Third parties

The Libertarian Party of Arkansas held a special nominating convention on October 24, 2015, to select nominees for elections in 2016. Frank Gilbert was selected as the nominee for the U.S. Senate race.^[6]

Candidates

Nominated

Frank Gilbert, DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014^[6]

General election

Candidates

John Boozman (R), incumbent senator
Conner Eldridge (D), former United States Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas
Frank Gilbert (L), DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014

Debates

Dates	Location	Boozman	Eldridge	Gilbert	Link
October 12, 2016	Little Rock, Arkansas	Participant	Participant	Participant	^[7] - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[8]	Safe R	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[9]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[10]	Safe R	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos^[11]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[12]	Safe R	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Boozman (R)	Conner Eldridge (D)	Frank Gilbert (L)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey^[13]	November 1–7, 2016	930	± 4.6%	56%	41%	—	—	3%
SurveyMonkey^[14]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	798	± 4.6%	55%	42%	—	—	3%
SurveyMonkey^[15]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	696	± 4.6%	56%	43%	—	—	1%
SurveyMonkey^[16]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	593	± 4.6%	54%	43%	—	—	3%
SurveyMonkey^[17]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	475	± 4.6%	52%	46%	—	—	2%
SurveyMonkey^[18]	October 25–31, 2016	484	± 4.6%	54%	44%	—	—	2%
University of Arkansas^[19]	October 18–25, 2016	800	± 3.5%	61%	38%	—	1%	—
Talk Business/Hendrix College^[20]	October 21, 2016	463	± 4.6%	52%	34%	4%	2%	8%
Talk Business/Hendrix College^[21]	September 15–17, 2016	831	± 3.4%	55%	29%	5%	3%	8%
Emerson College^[22]	September 9–13, 2016	600	± 3.6%	44%	30%	—	11%	15%
Talk Business/Hendrix College^[23]	June 21, 2016	751	± 3.6%	51%	29%	6%	—	14%

Hypothetical polling

with Mike Beebe

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Boozman (R)	Mike Beebe (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[24]	August 1–3, 2014	1,066	± 3%	40%	46%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[25]	September 18–21, 2014	1,453	± 2.6%	39%	49%	—	12%
Talk Business/Hendrix College^[26]	June 8–11, 2015	1,183	± 1.84%	37%	45%	—	18%

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2016^[27]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	John Boozman (incumbent)	661,984	59.77%	+1.87%
	Democratic	Conner Eldridge	400,602	36.17%	−0.78%
	Libertarian	Frank Gilbert	43,866	3.96%	+0.72%
	Write-in		1,070	0.10%	N/A
Total votes			1,107,522	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Arkansas (Largest city: Stuttgart)
Fulton (Largest city: Salem)
Monroe (largest city: Clarendon)
Mississippi (largest city: Osceola)
Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
Jackson (largest city: Newport)
Lawrence (largest city: Walnut Ridge)

By congressional district

Boozman won all 4 congressional districts^[28]

District	Boozman	Eldridge	Representative
1st	63%	33%	Rick Crawford
2nd	51%	45%	French Hill
3rd	64%	31%	Steve Womack
4th	62%	35%	Bruce Westerman

References

^ "Conner Eldridge to Challenge Boozman for U.S. Senate Seat | Times Record". Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
^ DeMillo, Andrew (June 9, 2014). "Boozman, back at work post-surgery, to run in '16". Associated Press. Retrieved June 9, 2014.
^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
^ "Preferential Primary and Nonpartisan General Election official Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
^ Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2015). "Former U.S. Attorney Will Challenge Boozman in Arkansas". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved September 9, 2015.
^ ^a ^b Brawner, Steve (October 25, 2015). "Arkansas Libertarians Nominate 23, Including Full Congressional Slate". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved October 27, 2015.
^ Full debate
^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ University of Arkansas
^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
^ Emerson College
^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Talk Business/Hendrix College
^ "2016 General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election Unofficial County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2016.
^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[1] "Conner Eldridge to Challenge Boozman for U.S. Senate Seat | Times Record". Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved October 30, 2015.

[DeMillo-2] DeMillo, Andrew (June 9, 2014). "Boozman, back at work post-surgery, to run in '16". Associated Press. Retrieved June 9, 2014.

[3] Talk Business/Hendrix College

[ARprimaryresults-4] "Preferential Primary and Nonpartisan General Election official Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 22, 2016.

[5] Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2015). "Former U.S. Attorney Will Challenge Boozman in Arkansas". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved September 9, 2015.

[libertarians-6] Brawner, Steve (October 25, 2015). "Arkansas Libertarians Nominate 23, Including Full Congressional Slate". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved October 27, 2015.

[7] Full debate

[8] "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.

[9] "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.

[10] "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.

[11] "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.

[12] "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[13] SurveyMonkey

[14] SurveyMonkey

[15] SurveyMonkey

[16] SurveyMonkey

[17] SurveyMonkey

[18] SurveyMonkey

[19] University of Arkansas

[20] Talk Business/Hendrix College

[21] Talk Business/Hendrix College

[22] Emerson College

[23] Talk Business/Hendrix College

[24] Public Policy Polling

[25] Public Policy Polling

[26] Talk Business/Hendrix College

[ARGeneralElection-27] "2016 General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election Unofficial County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2016.

[28] "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.

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v t e Elections in Arkansas
General	1844 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1900 1902 1903 1904 1906 1907 1908 1910 1912 1913 1914 1916 1917 1918 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1926 1927 1928 1930 1932 1933 1934 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1942 1943 1944 1946 1949 1950 1952 1953 1954 1956 1958 1959 1960 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1972 1973 1974 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
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U.S. Senate	Class 2: 1833 1839–40 1848 S 1853 1859 1868 S 1870 1876 1883 1885 S 1889 1895 1901 1907 1913 S 1913 1918 1924 1930 1936 1937 S 1942 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 Class 3: 1837 1843 1845 S 1849 1855 1861 1867 1873 1879 1881 S 1885 1891 1897 1903 1909 1914 1916 S 1920 1926 1932 S 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 2022
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'S,' denotes special election; 'U,' denotes election under Federal (Union) military occupation See also: Political party strength in Arkansas

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