2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas
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| Elections in Arkansas |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Arkansas voters chose six electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote putting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. Also on the ballot were the nominees for the Libertarian, Green, Constitution, American Solidarity, Life and Liberty, and Socialism and Liberation parties and Independent candidates. Write-in candidates are not allowed to participate in presidential elections.[3]
Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations making predictions considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise a safe red state. In 2016, Trump won Arkansas by a 26.92% margin,[4] the largest margin for a candidate of either party since Jimmy Carter's 30.01% margin in 1976. In 2020, Trump won 62.40% of the vote to Biden's 34.78%, a 27.62% margin,[5] the seventh consecutive election in which Republicans improved on their margin in Arkansas, the longest in the nation of any state for either party.[6] This made Arkansas one of only six states, along with the District of Columbia, in which Trump improved on his performance in 2016.[a] Despite improving on Hillary Clinton's performance in the Natural State by 1.13% in terms of raw vote percentage, Biden's losing margin makes it the largest loss by a Democrat in Arkansas since George McGovern's 38.1-point defeat in 1972. The last Democrat even to win over 40% of the vote was John Kerry in 2004.[6] After Barack Obama, Biden is the second ever Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Arkansas. This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican carried the state while losing re–election.
Trump won landslide margins across the state, including in many of the state's metropolitan areas and suburbs. Trump once again carried Woodruff County, formerly a Democratic stronghold, thus marking the first time since its founding that a Democrat was elected president without carrying the county.[7] Biden's strength was mostly isolated to Pulaski County, home to the state capital and largest city of Little Rock, and Jefferson County, home to Pine Bluff. He also won six rural, predominantly African-American counties on the eastern border along the Mississippi River. All but seven counties in the state swung heavily to the right, the exceptions being Pulaski County and one other county in the Little Rock metropolitan area; Sebastian County, home to Fort Smith; and three counties in the northwest encompassing and surrounding the college town of Fayetteville, where the University of Arkansas is located.[8] Notably, Biden lost Washington County, where Fayetteville is, by only 3.9 percentage points, the closest any Democrat has come to winning it since Clinton did so in 1996. Arkansas voted 32.07% more Republican than the national average in 2020.
Primary elections
[edit]The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.
Republican primary
[edit]Incumbent President Donald Trump, former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente were the declared Republicans candidates. Tom Cotton, the current junior senator from Arkansas, declined to run in 2017.[9][10][11] As incumbent presidents rarely face prominent challenges in primaries, Trump won all 40 delegates and 97.13% of the vote.
The following candidates are on the ballot.[12]
| 2020 Arkansas Republican presidential primary[13] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Delegates | |
| Count | Percentage | ||
 Donald Trump
|
238,980 | 97.13% | 40 |
| Bill Weld | 5,216 | 2.12% | 0 |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 1,848 | 0.75% | 0 |
| Total | 246,044 | 100% | 40 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Eighteen candidates were on the Democratic primary ballot, of whom nine had already withdrew, three withdrew during the early voting period, and six were active candidates. Former Vice President Joe Biden won the primary with 40.59% of the vote and 17 delegates; he carried all but one county. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont came in second place, with 22.44% of the vote and 9 delegates. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg won 16.72% of the vote and 5 delegates; no other candidates won over 15% of the vote or any delegates.[14] Biden's win was widely predicted in polling and forecasts,[15][16] similar to most other southern states; his best performance was along the eastern border along the Mississippi River and on the southern border, which have high concentrations of African American voters, who Biden consistently performed better among throughout the primary. He also won the Little Rock, Fort Smith, Jonesboro, and Pine Bluff metropolitan areas. Analogous with his performance in the 2016 primary, Sanders performed best in the northwest, traditionally the most Republican part of the state, holding Biden to less than 40 percent of the vote in many regions and winning Washington County, home to the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. Biden's strong performance in the state is a vestige of the prominence of moderate, white, Democratic politicians in and from the state throughout the late 20th century and 2000s which has largely faded amid increased political polarization and Republican gains among white, non-college-educated voters.[17] Aided by several other centrist candidates withdrawing from the race just before Super Tuesday[18] and a growing Democratic voter base in the suburbs,[19] Arkansas was a relatively noncompetitive state throughout the primary.
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| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 93,012 | 40.59 | 17 |
| Bernie Sanders | 51,413 | 22.44 | 9 |
| Michael Bloomberg | 38,312 | 16.72 | 5 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 22,971 | 10.03 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] | 7,649 | 3.34 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b] | 7,009 | 3.06 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b] | 2,053 | 0.90 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1,593 | 0.70 | |
| Kamala Harris (withdrawn) | 715 | 0.31 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 715 | 0.31 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 574 | 0.25 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 572 | 0.25 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 501 | 0.22 | |
| Steve Bullock (withdrawn) | 485 | 0.21 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 443 | 0.19 | |
| Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 408 | 0.18 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 304 | 0.13 | |
| Other candidate | 393 | 0.17 | |
| Total | 229,122 | 100% | 31 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[21] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[22] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Politico[24] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| RCP[25] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[26] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| CNN[27] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[28] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| CBS News[29] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
| 270towin[30] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| ABC News[31] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| NPR[32] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[33] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[34] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
[edit]| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[35] | October 17–28, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 35.0% | 60.3% | 4.7% | Trump +25.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight[36] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 36.2% | 58.9% | 4.9% | Trump +22.8 |
| Average | 35.6% | 59.6% | 4.8% | Trump +24.0 | ||
Polls
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,309 (LV) | ± 4% | 61%[e] | 38% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 2,239 (LV) | – | 60% | 38% | - | - | – | – |
| University of Arkansas[38] | Oct 9–21, 2020 | 591 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 65% | 32% | - | - | 3% | – |
| Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics[39] | Oct 11–13, 2020 | 647 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 34% | 2% | 1% | 2%[f] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 771 (LV) | – | 62% | 38% | - | - | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 689 (LV) | – | 67% | 32% | - | - | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 747 (LV) | – | 66% | 32% | - | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 354 (LV) | – | 59% | 38% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics[40] | Jun 9–10, 2020 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 45% | - | - | 5%[g] | 3% |
Fundraising
[edit]According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $2,732,436.64,[41] Joe Biden and his interest groups raised $2,088,712.78,[42] and Jo Jorgensen and her interest groups raised $5,289.19[43] from Arkansas-based contributors.
Candidate ballot access
[edit]The candidates on the ballot were listed in the following order:[44]
- Jo Jorgensen / Spike Cohen, Libertarian
- Kanye West / Michelle Tidball, Independent
- Brock Pierce / Karla Ballard, Independent
- Brian T. Carroll / Amar Patel, American Solidarity
- Howie Hawkins / Angela Nicole Walker, Green
- C. L. Gammon / Phil Collins,[h] Independent
- Gloria La Riva / Sunil Freeman, Socialism and Liberation
- John Richard Myers / Tiara Lusk, Life and Liberty
- Don Blankenship / William Mohr, Constitution
- Joe Biden / Kamala Harris, Democratic
- Rocky De La Fuente / Darcy G. Richardson, Independent
- Donald Trump / Mike Pence, Republican
Political party candidates were eligible via a primary election or party convention and had to have filed an affidavit of eligibility, political practices pledge, and party certificate with the Arkansas Secretary of State by March 1, 2020, as did independent candidates. Independents also had to file a petition with at least 1,000 signatures of eligible voters from up to 90 days before the petition filing deadline on August 3, 2020. Write-in candidates cannot run in presidential, municipal, or primary elections.[46][47]
Electoral slates
[edit]Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for president and vice president. Arkansas is allocated six electors because it has four congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot must submit a list of six electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all six electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Arkansas, there are no laws regarding faithless electors, meaning their vote is counted and not penalized.[48]
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All six pledged electors cast their votes for incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021, per the Electoral Count Act.
These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[49]
| Donald Trump Mike Pence Republican Party |
Joe Biden Kamala Harris Democratic Party |
Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
Kanye West Michelle Tidball Independent |
Howie Hawkins Angela Nicole Walker Green |
Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker Independent |
Brock Pierce Karla Ballard Independent |
Don Blankenship William Mohr Constitution |
Brian T. Carroll Amar Patel American Solidarity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Bethune Sharon Brooks Iverson Jackson J. D. McGehee Rod Soubers Doyle Webb |
Connie Castleberry Nicole Clowney Frederick Freeman Megan Godfrey Philip Hood Asad Khan |
James Hood Christopher Olson Morgan Reynolds Brian Shank Jake Simpson Joe Swafford |
Addison Blakely Audrey Buckner Christopher Blakely Christopher Donegan Trista Nicole Donegan Courtney Johnson |
Ryan Giglio Chad Jones Lowel Lybarger Marilyn Rumph Robin Rumph Andrew Waldron |
None submitted | Joni Bilhartz Erin Krus Jeremy Plumlee Kelly Shadlow Susan Shadow Christopher Smiley |
Jonathan Baker Spencer Graham Mitchell Ingram Margie Mullins Trently Mullins Brian Webb |
Angela Clark-Chandler Everett DePangher Ashley Evans Gary Evans Lee Evans Adam Wheeless |
| C. L. Gammon Phil Collins Independent |
John Richard Myers Tiara Lusk Life and Liberty |
Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman Socialism and Liberation |
Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson Independent |
|---|---|---|---|
| None submitted | Jacob Faught Brenda Hinesly William Whitfield Hyman Brian Leach Zachary Caleb Mulson Glen Schwarz |
Taylor Adams Karl Brown Aaron Gibson Jill Neimeier Destin Reishus Achal Thakore |
Gevina Jackson Orlando Jones Phyllis McCullor Elisha Patrick Tiara Peters Therma L. Propps Jr. |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
760,647 | 62.40% | +1.83% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
423,932 | 34.78% | +1.13% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
13,133 | 1.08% | −1.56% | |
| Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
4,099 | 0.34% | n/a | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
2,980 | 0.24% | −0.60% | |
| Independent | Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker |
2,812 | 0.23% | n/a | |
| Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
2,141 | 0.18% | n/a | |
| Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
2,108 | 0.17% | −0.24% | |
| American Solidarity | Brian T. Carroll Amar Patel |
1,713 | 0.14% | n/a | |
| Independent | C. L. Gammon Phil Collins[h] |
1,475 | 0.12% | n/a | |
| Life and Liberty | John Richard Myers Tiara Lusk |
1,372 | 0.11% | n/a | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
1,336 | 0.11% | n/a | |
| Independent | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
1,321 | 0.11% | n/a | |
| Total votes | 1,219,069 | 100% | +2.83% | ||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Arkansas | 4,304 | 68.40% | 1,818 | 28.89% | 170 | 2.71% | 2,486 | 39.51% | 6,292 |
| Ashley | 5,548 | 70.00% | 2,125 | 26.81% | 253 | 3.19% | 3,423 | 43.19% | 7,926 |
| Baxter | 15,836 | 75.38% | 4,635 | 22.06% | 536 | 2.56% | 11,201 | 53.32% | 21,007 |
| Benton | 73,965 | 61.68% | 42,249 | 35.23% | 3,698 | 3.09% | 31,716 | 26.45% | 119,912 |
| Boone | 13,652 | 79.77% | 3,064 | 17.90% | 398 | 2.33% | 10,588 | 61.87% | 17,114 |
| Bradley | 2,335 | 63.90% | 1,214 | 33.22% | 105 | 2.88% | 1,121 | 30.68% | 3,654 |
| Calhoun | 1,636 | 74.98% | 479 | 21.95% | 67 | 3.07% | 1,157 | 53.03% | 2,182 |
| Carroll | 7,424 | 62.93% | 4,023 | 34.10% | 350 | 2.97% | 3,401 | 28.83% | 11,797 |
| Chicot | 1,752 | 42.70% | 2,260 | 55.08% | 91 | 2.22% | -508 | -12.38% | 4,103 |
| Clark | 4,616 | 54.99% | 3,438 | 40.95% | 341 | 4.06% | 1,178 | 14.04% | 8,395 |
| Clay | 4,086 | 78.83% | 962 | 18.56% | 135 | 2.61% | 3,124 | 60.27% | 5,183 |
| Cleburne | 10,328 | 81.45% | 1,988 | 15.68% | 364 | 2.87% | 8,340 | 65.77% | 12,680 |
| Cleveland | 2,867 | 79.64% | 651 | 18.08% | 82 | 2.28% | 2,216 | 61.56% | 3,600 |
| Columbia | 5,500 | 63.83% | 2,814 | 32.66% | 302 | 3.51% | 2,686 | 31.17% | 8,616 |
| Conway | 5,694 | 65.56% | 2,615 | 30.11% | 376 | 4.33% | 3,079 | 35.45% | 8,685 |
| Craighead | 25,558 | 66.37% | 11,921 | 30.95% | 1,032 | 2.68% | 13,637 | 35.42% | 38,511 |
| Crawford | 18,607 | 77.24% | 4,959 | 20.58% | 525 | 2.18% | 13,648 | 56.66% | 24,091 |
| Crittenden | 7,333 | 44.80% | 8,514 | 52.02% | 520 | 3.18% | -1,181 | -7.22% | 16,367 |
| Cross | 4,946 | 71.25% | 1,772 | 25.53% | 224 | 3.22% | 3,174 | 45.72% | 6,942 |
| Dallas | 1,573 | 59.38% | 963 | 36.35% | 113 | 4.27% | 610 | 23.03% | 2,649 |
| Desha | 1,921 | 46.13% | 2,016 | 48.41% | 227 | 5.46% | -95 | -2.28% | 4,164 |
| Drew | 4,349 | 62.96% | 2,426 | 35.12% | 133 | 1.92% | 1,923 | 27.84% | 6,908 |
| Faulkner | 34,421 | 63.24% | 18,347 | 33.71% | 1,660 | 3.05% | 16,074 | 29.53% | 54,428 |
| Franklin | 5,677 | 79.63% | 1,300 | 18.24% | 152 | 2.13% | 4,377 | 61.39% | 7,129 |
| Fulton | 3,961 | 77.38% | 1,035 | 20.22% | 123 | 2.40% | 2,926 | 57.16% | 5,119 |
| Garland | 29,069 | 65.77% | 14,045 | 31.78% | 1,085 | 2.45% | 15,024 | 33.99% | 44,199 |
| Grant | 6,794 | 82.85% | 1,268 | 15.46% | 138 | 1.69% | 5,526 | 67.39% | 8,200 |
| Greene | 12,670 | 78.70% | 3,058 | 18.99% | 372 | 2.31% | 9,612 | 59.71% | 16,100 |
| Hempstead | 4,470 | 65.27% | 2,138 | 31.22% | 240 | 3.51% | 2,332 | 34.05% | 6,848 |
| Hot Spring | 9,202 | 73.28% | 3,082 | 24.54% | 273 | 2.18% | 6,120 | 48.74% | 12,557 |
| Howard | 3,367 | 69.65% | 1,340 | 27.72% | 127 | 2.63% | 2,027 | 41.93% | 4,834 |
| Independence | 11,250 | 77.52% | 2,806 | 19.34% | 456 | 3.14% | 8,444 | 58.18% | 14,512 |
| Izard | 4,631 | 79.71% | 1,021 | 17.57% | 158 | 2.72% | 3,610 | 62.14% | 5,810 |
| Jackson | 3,593 | 70.58% | 1,365 | 26.81% | 133 | 2.61% | 2,228 | 43.77% | 5,091 |
| Jefferson | 9,521 | 37.84% | 14,981 | 59.55% | 656 | 2.61% | -5,460 | -21.71% | 25,158 |
| Johnson | 6,938 | 73.05% | 2,283 | 24.04% | 277 | 2.91% | 4,655 | 49.01% | 9,498 |
| Lafayette | 1,757 | 65.58% | 839 | 31.32% | 83 | 3.10% | 918 | 34.26% | 2,679 |
| Lawrence | 4,569 | 78.01% | 1,080 | 18.44% | 208 | 3.55% | 3,489 | 59.57% | 5,857 |
| Lee | 1,286 | 45.15% | 1,423 | 49.96% | 139 | 4.89% | -137 | -4.81% | 2,848 |
| Lincoln | 2,729 | 70.43% | 1,032 | 26.63% | 114 | 2.94% | 1,697 | 43.80% | 3,875 |
| Little River | 3,715 | 71.76% | 1,226 | 23.68% | 236 | 4.56% | 2,489 | 48.08% | 5,177 |
| Logan | 6,441 | 78.31% | 1,544 | 18.77% | 240 | 2.92% | 4,897 | 59.54% | 8,225 |
| Lonoke | 22,884 | 74.63% | 6,686 | 21.81% | 1,092 | 3.56% | 16,198 | 52.82% | 30,662 |
| Madison | 5,658 | 76.97% | 1,563 | 21.26% | 130 | 1.77% | 4,095 | 55.71% | 7,351 |
| Marion | 5,783 | 77.08% | 1,531 | 20.41% | 189 | 2.51% | 4,252 | 56.67% | 7,503 |
| Miller | 11,920 | 72.12% | 4,245 | 25.68% | 364 | 2.20% | 7,675 | 46.44% | 16,529 |
| Mississippi | 7,296 | 59.12% | 4,558 | 36.93% | 488 | 3.95% | 2,738 | 22.19% | 12,342 |
| Monroe | 1,545 | 54.87% | 1,147 | 40.73% | 124 | 4.40% | 398 | 14.14% | 2,816 |
| Montgomery | 3,046 | 78.65% | 731 | 18.87% | 96 | 2.48% | 2,315 | 59.78% | 3,873 |
| Nevada | 2,133 | 63.52% | 1,076 | 32.04% | 149 | 4.44% | 1,057 | 31.48% | 3,358 |
| Newton | 3,192 | 79.84% | 709 | 17.73% | 97 | 2.43% | 2,483 | 62.11% | 3,998 |
| Ouachita | 5,294 | 54.98% | 3,995 | 41.49% | 340 | 3.53% | 1,299 | 13.49% | 9,629 |
| Perry | 3,479 | 75.19% | 1,012 | 21.87% | 136 | 2.94% | 2,467 | 43.32% | 4,627 |
| Phillips | 2,417 | 38.72% | 3,623 | 58.04% | 202 | 3.24% | -1,206 | -19.32% | 6,242 |
| Pike | 3,519 | 82.88% | 644 | 15.17% | 83 | 1.95% | 2,875 | 67.71% | 4,246 |
| Poinsett | 5,918 | 78.69% | 1,424 | 18.93% | 179 | 2.38% | 4,494 | 59.76% | 7,521 |
| Polk | 7,035 | 82.86% | 1,246 | 14.68% | 209 | 2.46% | 5,789 | 68.18% | 8,490 |
| Pope | 18,081 | 74.01% | 5,772 | 23.62% | 579 | 2.37% | 12,309 | 50.39% | 24,432 |
| Prairie | 2,786 | 79.71% | 654 | 18.71% | 55 | 1.58% | 2,132 | 61.00% | 3,495 |
| Pulaski | 63,687 | 37.47% | 101,947 | 59.98% | 4,322 | 2.55% | -38,260 | -22.51% | 169,956 |
| Randolph | 5,355 | 78.61% | 1,215 | 17.84% | 242 | 3.55% | 4,140 | 60.77% | 6,812 |
| St. Francis | 3,242 | 45.61% | 3,604 | 50.70% | 262 | 3.69% | -362 | -5.09% | 7,108 |
| Saline | 39,556 | 69.45% | 16,060 | 28.20% | 1,343 | 2.35% | 23,496 | 41.25% | 56,959 |
| Scott | 2,962 | 83.41% | 483 | 13.60% | 106 | 2.99% | 2,479 | 69.81% | 3,551 |
| Searcy | 3,365 | 83.73% | 588 | 14.63% | 66 | 1.64% | 2,777 | 69.10% | 4,019 |
| Sebastian | 31,198 | 66.18% | 14,487 | 30.73% | 1,455 | 3.09% | 16,711 | 35.45% | 47,140 |
| Sevier | 3,884 | 74.66% | 1,116 | 21.45% | 202 | 3.89% | 2,768 | 53.21% | 5,202 |
| Sharp | 5,938 | 78.48% | 1,398 | 18.48% | 230 | 3.04% | 4,540 | 60.00% | 7,566 |
| Stone | 4,616 | 77.74% | 1,180 | 19.87% | 142 | 2.39% | 3,436 | 57.87% | 5,938 |
| Union | 10,478 | 63.09% | 5,584 | 33.62% | 545 | 3.29% | 4,894 | 29.47% | 16,607 |
| Van Buren | 6,034 | 77.29% | 1,593 | 20.40% | 180 | 2.31% | 4,441 | 56.89% | 7,807 |
| Washington | 47,504 | 50.39% | 43,824 | 46.49% | 2,938 | 3.12% | 3,680 | 3.90% | 94,266 |
| White | 24,182 | 78.30% | 5,978 | 19.36% | 725 | 2.34% | 18,204 | 58.94% | 30,885 |
| Woodruff | 1,543 | 62.32% | 856 | 34.57% | 77 | 3.11% | 687 | 27.75% | 2,476 |
| Yell | 5,226 | 77.53% | 1,284 | 19.05% | 231 | 3.42% | 3,942 | 58.48% | 6,741 |
| Totals | 760,647 | 62.40% | 423,932 | 34.78% | 34,490 | 2.82% | 336,715 | 27.62% | 1,219,069 |
- Democratic — +5–7.5%
- Democratic — +2.5–5%
- Democratic — +0–2.5%
- Republican — +0–2.5%
- Republican — +2.5–5%
- Republican — +5–7.5%
- Republican — +7.5–10%
- Republican — +10–12.5%
- Republican — +12.5–15%
- Republican — +>15%
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won all four congressional districts.[50]
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 69.1% | 27.9% | Rick Crawford |
| 2nd | 53.1% | 44.3% | French Hill |
| 3rd | 61.9% | 35.2% | Steve Womack |
| 4th | 67.7% | 29.6% | Bruce Westerman |
Analysis
[edit]Arkansas is a majority-White, heavily-rural Southern state with a strong distaste for social liberalism, contained entirely within the Bible Belt. As a result, no Democrat has won Arkansas since native son and former governor Bill Clinton did so in 1996; since then, the Republican margin of victory has increased in every consecutive presidential election. The state thoroughly ceased to be competitive in 2008, when Democrat Barack Obama lost Arkansas by nearly 20 points despite decisively winning the national election. This marked a historic shift in the state; Obama became the first Democrat ever elected president without carrying Arkansas. Analysts at The New York Times speculated that the shift in 2020 occurred because Hillary Clinton, as the former First Lady of Arkansas, had a home state advantage in 2016.[51]
Continuing on this trend, Trump carried Arkansas again by a margin of 27.62%, a 0.7% increase from 26.92% four years earlier in 2016. Even as most of the nation swung slightly leftward, many counties in Arkansas still swung dramatically rightward. Trump improved his margin in the historically Democratic Delta county of Woodruff from 8.9% four years prior to 27.7% in 2020.
Biden's main bases of support were in Pulaski County (Little Rock), Jefferson County (Pine Bluff), and most of the counties along the Mississippi River. Despite his statewide loss, Biden shrank Trump's margin in Washington County—a northwest Arkansas county home to Fayetteville and in turn the University of Arkansas—from 9.9% to 3.9%.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Arkansas came from 86% with White, born again/evangelical Christians. Fifty-two percent of voters opposed changing the Arkansas state flag to remove the star that symbolizes the Confederacy, and these voters backed Trump by 88%–10%.[52]
In other elections, incumbent Republican Tom Cotton defeated Libertarian Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. in the senatorial election by 33 points, outperforming Trump. Harrington's performance is the best Libertarian senatorial performance in history in terms of voting percentage.[53] No Democrat filed in the senatorial race.
Notes
[edit]- ^ The other five states were California, Florida, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah.
- ^ a b c Candidate withdrew after early voting had started.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
- ^ a b C. L. Gammon was the original presidential nominee of the Prohibition Party, with Phil Collins as his running mate. After Gammon withdrew, Collins was given the party's nomination for president, but appears on the ballot a second time as Gammon and Collins' original candidacy was never removed.[45]
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Arkansas
- 2020 Arkansas elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
References
[edit]- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on January 3, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Arkansas". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
- ^ "2016 General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election - Official County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
- ^ a b "2020 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
- ^ a b "Arkansas Presidential Election Voting History". 270toWin. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
- ^ Leip, Dave. "Arkansas Election Results". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved February 21, 2023.
- ^ "Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
- ^ Wells, Dylan; Talwar, Saisha (August 9, 2017). "Trump could face GOP challengers in the 2020 election". ABC News. Archived from the original on August 10, 2017. Retrieved August 9, 2017.
- ^ Millar, Lindsey (August 6, 2017). "Cotton figures in New York Times roundup on 2020 presidential race". Arkansas Times. Archived from the original on August 10, 2017. Retrieved August 10, 2017.
- ^ Beaumont, Thomas (May 19, 2017). "GOP's Cotton in Iowa: "I'm ready for that new beginning."". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on October 20, 2017. Retrieved October 19, 2017.
- ^ "Sample ballots in Arkansas". January 28, 2020.
- ^ "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
- ^ "Election Night Reporting". Arkansas Secretary of State. May 18, 2020. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ Silver, Nate (January 9, 2020). "2020 Democratic Primary: Who will win the Arkansas primary?". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ Strand, C. C. (March 3, 2020). "Live Arkansas Democratic Primary Results: Biden Wins". Heavy. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ Millhiser, Ian (March 3, 2020). "Joe Biden wins the Arkansas Democratic primary". Vox. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ Klar, Rebecca (March 3, 2020). "Biden wins Arkansas primary". The Hill. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ Herndon, Astead W. (December 7, 2020). "The Suburbs Helped Elect Biden. Can They Give Democrats the Senate, Too?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 23, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on March 23, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings". Inside Elections. Archived from the original on May 27, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Archived from the original on April 4, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019. Archived from the original on June 14, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. Retrieved April 27, 2020.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Archived from the original on June 16, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 23, 2020.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Archived from the original on August 7, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ 270 to Win
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
- ^ University of Arkansas
- ^ Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics
- ^ Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics
- ^ "TRUMP, DONALD J. - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. January 2019. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "BIDEN, JOSEPH R JR - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. January 2019. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "JORGENSEN, JO - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. January 2015. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "Arkansas official sample ballots, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ "Candidate Ballot Position Drawing" (PDF). Pulaski County Election Commission. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2020. Retrieved October 5, 2020.
- ^ State Board of Election Commissioners (2016). "Running for Public Office: A "Plain English" Handbook for Candidates" (PDF). Arkansas Secretary of State. p. 20. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 24, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2021 – via Wayback Machine.
- ^ "Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Arkansas". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ "Faithless Elector State Laws". FairVote. July 7, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2021.
- ^ "Arkansas Certificate of Ascertainment" (PDF). National Archives and Records Administration. December 3, 2020. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
- ^ Kolko, Jed; Monkovic, Toni (September 16, 2021). "The Places That Had the Biggest Swings Toward and Against Trump". The New York Times. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
- ^ "Arkansas Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Cotton win good news, say parties of two rivals". Arkansas Online. November 7, 2020. Retrieved February 25, 2021.
Further reading
[edit]- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Arkansas
- https://www.arkansasonline.com:443/news/2020/sep/02/election-presents-multiple-choices/
- https://www.arkansasonline.com:443/news/2021/feb/08/election-cost-county-128357/?elections
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Arkansas", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Arkansas: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Arkansas". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Arkansas at Ballotpedia
