2006 Canadian federal election

The 2006 Canadian federal election (more formally, the 39th General Election) was held on January 23, 2006, to elect members of the Canadian House of Commons. The Conservative Party of Canada won a plurality of seats: 40.3% of seats, or 124 out of 308, up 25 seats from 99 in 2004, and 36.3% of votes: up 6.7% from 29.6% in the 2004 election. This will result in a minority government led by the Conservative Party with Stephen Harper as the new Prime Minister of Canada, when sworn in by Governor General Michaëlle Jean. This will be the smallest minority government in terms of the percentage of seats held by the governing party in Canada since Confederation. Harper was re-elected in Calgary Southwest, which he has held since 2002, ensuring he has a seat in the new parliament.

File:Canada 2006 Federal Election seats.png

Rendition of party representation in the impending 39th Canadian parliament decided by this election.

The election was held on January 23, 2006. The first polls closed at 07:00 PM ET (0000 UTC); Elections Canada started to publish preliminary results on its website at 10:00 PM ET as the last polls closed. Shortly after midnight (ET) on January 24, 2006, incumbent Prime Minister Paul Martin conceded defeat, and announced that he will resign as leader of the Liberal Party. He will continue to sit as a Member of Parliament representing LaSalle—Émard, the Montreal-area riding he has held since 1988.

At 9:30 am on January 24, Martin informed Michaëlle Jean that he would not form a government and intended to resign as Prime Minister. There will be a Liberal leadership convention later in the year, during which a new leader will be selected to succeed Martin. Later that day, at 6:45 pm, Jean invited Harper to form a government. Martin will formally resign, and Harper will be formally appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister on February 6.[1]

Cause of the election

Election signs for the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP in the snow, characterizing Canada's mid-winter election

Popular vote map with seat totals

This general election elected members for the Canadian House of Commons, indirectly determining the prime minister and cabinet, as the government will be formed by the political party or coalition of parties that the governor general determines is best able to command the confidence of the House (usually the one with the most elected members). This unusual winter election was caused by a motion of no confidence passed by the House of Commons on November 28, 2005. The following morning, Prime Minister Paul Martin met with Governor General Michaëlle Jean, who agreed to dissolve the minority parliament, issuing a proclamation of the dissolution (Canada Gazette: Proclamation Dissolving Parliament). The Governor General then issued a proclamation issuing Writs of election (Canada Gazette: Proclamation Issuing Election Writs), followed by a final proclamation summoning Parliament to meet (Canada Gazette: Proclamation Summoning Parliament to Meet on February 20, 2006), though this will be superseded by further proclamations as the date for the assembling of Parliament is changed. The campaign was almost eight weeks in length, the longest in two decades, in order to allow for downtime over the Christmas and New Year holidays.

Recent political events, most notably testimony to the Gomery Commission investigating the sponsorship scandal, are perceived by some to have weakened the Liberals (who, under Martin, previously formed a minority government) by allegations of criminal corruption in the party. Although the next election was not legally required until 2009, the opposition had enough votes to force the dissolution of Parliament earlier. While Prime Minister Martin had committed in April 2005 to dissolve Parliament within a month of the tabling of the second Gomery Report (which took place February 1, 2006), all three opposition parties—the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois, and New Democratic Party (NDP)—and three of the four independents decided not to wait, and the motion of non-confidence passed 171-133.

Results

Main article: Results of the Canadian federal election, 2006

Overall results

The results show a Conservative minority government with 124 seats in parliament with a Liberal opposition and a strengthened NDP. In his speech following the loss, Martin stated he would not lead the Liberal Party of Canada in another election. Preliminary results indicated that 64.9% of registered voters cast a ballot, a notable increase over 2004's 60.9%.[2]

A judicial recount was automatically scheduled in the Parry Sound—Muskoka riding, where early results showed Conservative Tony Clement only 21 votes ahead of Liberal Andy Mitchell, because the difference of votes cast between the two leading candidates was less than 0.1%. Clement was confirmed as the winner by 28 votes. [3]

Summary of the 23 January 2006 Canadian House of Commons election results at 0830 EST (1330 UTC), Jan. 24

Party		Party leader	Candi- dates	Seats				Popular vote
				2004	Dissol.	2006	% Change	#	%	Change	Conservative	Stephen Harper	308	99	98	1241	+25.3%	5,370,903	36.3%	+6.6%	Liberal	Paul Martin	308	135	133	1031	-23.7%	4,477,217	30.2%	-6.5%	Bloc Québécois	Gilles Duceppe	75	54	53	51	-5.6%	1,552,043	10.5%	-1.9%	New Democrat	Jack Layton	308	19	18	29	+52.6%	2,590,808	17.5%	+1.8%	Independent		90	1	4	12	-	82,643	0.5%	N/A	Green	Jim Harris	308	-	-	-		665,940	4.5%	+0.2%	Christian Heritage	Ron Gray	45	-	-	-		28,790	0.2%	-0.1%	Progressive Canadian	Tracy Parsons	25	-	-	-		14,446	0.1%	0.0%	Marxist-Leninist	Sandra L. Smith	69	-	-	-		9,289	0.1%	0.0%	Marijuana	Blair Longley	23	-	-	-		9,275	0.1%	-0.1%	Canadian Action	Connie Fogal	34	-	-	-		6,201	0.0%	-0.1%	Communist	Miguel Figueroa	21	-	-	-		3,127	0.0%	0.0%	Libertarian	Jean-Serge Brisson	10	-	-	-		3,003	0.0%	0.0%	First Peoples National	Barbara Wardlaw	5	*	-	-	*	1,340	0.0%	*	Western Block	Doug Christie	4	*	-	-	*	1,094	0.0%	*	Animal Alliance	Liz White	1	*	-	-	*	72	0.0%	*	Vacant				2
Total			1634	308	308	308	-	14,845,680	100%
Source: Elections Canada

Notes

Official candidate nominations closed January 2, 2006. Candidate totals cited above are based on official filings. Nominations were official on January 5, 2006.

"% change" refers to change from previous election

* indicates the party did not contest the previous election.

¹ Defeated Conservative candidate Jeremy Harrison has alleged electoral fraud affected the results in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River. A lawsuit is expected, which may affect the outcome. [4]

² André Arthur was elected as an independent candidate in the Quebec City-area riding of Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier.

Results by province

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Conservative/row

Party name			BC	AB	SK	MB	ON	QC	NB	NS	PE	NL	NU	NT	YT	Total
Conservative	Seats:	17	28	12	8	40	10	3	3	-	3	-	-	-	124	Vote:	37.3	65.0	48.9	42.8	35.1	24.6	35.7	29.69	33.4	42.67	29.6	19.8	23.67	36.25	Liberal	Seats:	9	-	2	3	54	13	6	6	4	4	1	-	1	103	Vote:	27.6	15.3	22.4	26.0	39.9	20.7	39.2	37.15	52.5	42.82	39.1	34.9	48.52	30.2	Bloc Québécois	Seats:						51								51	Vote:						42.1								10.5	New Democrat	Seats:	10	-	-	3	12	-	1	2	-	-	-	1	-	29	Vote:	28.6	11.6	24.0	25.4	19.4	7.5	21.9	29.84	9.6	13.58	17.6	42.1	23.85	17.5	Independent1/No affiliation	Seats:						1								1	Vote:						0.9								0.1
	Total seats:			36	28	14	14	106	75	10	11	4	7	1	1	1	308

¹ André Arthur was elected as an independent candidate in the Quebec City-area riding of Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier.

Results by electoral district

All on one page Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia

New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba

Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia

Nunavut Northwest Territories Yukon

Parties

File:Paulmartin1.jpg Paul Martin, 67, Canada's prime minister at the election call, and leader of the Liberal Party of Canada

File:Harpes.jpg Stephen Harper, 46, leader of the opposition at the election call and the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada

File:Jacklaytonsmall.jpg Jack Layton, 55, Leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada

Gilles Duceppe, 58, Leader of the regional Bloc Québécois

File:Jim of the Greens.jpeg Jim Harris, 44, Leader of the Green Party of Canada

Most observers believed only the Liberals and the Conservatives were capable of forming a government in this election, although Canadian political history is not without examples of wholly unexpected outcomes, such as Ontario's provincial election in 1990. With the end of the campaign at hand, pollsters and pundits placed the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals.

Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals hoped to recapture their majority, although this appeared unlikely at any point during the campaign; it would have required holding back Bloc pressure in Quebec plus picking up some new seats there while also gaining seats in English Canada, most likely in rural Ontario and southwestern British Columbia.

Stephen Harper's Conservatives succeeded in bringing their new party into power in Canada. While continuing weaknesses in Quebec and urban areas rightfully prompted most observers to consider a Conservative majority government to be mathematically difficult to achieve, Harper's stated goal was to achieve one nonetheless. Though the Conservatives were ahead of the Liberals in Quebec, they remained far behind the Bloc Québecois, and additional gains in rural and suburban Ontario would have been be necessary to meet Stephen Harper's goal.

The NDP has claimed that last minute tactical voting cost them several seats last time, as left-of-centre voters moved to the Liberals so that they could prevent a Harper-led government. Jack Layton has thus far avoided stating his party's goal is to win the election outright, instead calling for enough New Democrats to be elected to hold the balance of power in a Liberal or Conservative minority government. Political commentators have long argued that the NDP's main medium-term goal is to serve as junior partners to the Liberals in Canada's first-ever true coalition government. NDP leader Jack Layton was concerned last time over people voting Liberal so that they could avoid a Conservative government.

The Bloc Québécois had a very successful result in the 2004 election, with the Liberals reduced to the core areas of federalist support in portions of Montreal and the Outaouais. Oddly enough, this means there are comparatively few winnable Bloc seats left—perhaps eight or so—for the party to target. With provincial allies the Parti Québécois widely tipped to regain power in 2007, a large sovereigntist contingent in the House could play a major role in reopening the matter of Quebec independence. The Bloc Québécois only runs candidates in the province of Quebec.

In addition to the four sitting parties, the Green Party of Canada was running candidates in all 308 federal ridings. Though no Green candidate has yet been elected in Canada, the party has occasionally polled as high as 19% in British Columbia and 10% nationwide.

Other parties are listed in the table of results above.

Events during the 38th Parliament

Main article: Timeline of the Canadian federal election, 2006

An early election seemed likely because the 2004 federal election, held on June 28, 2004, resulted in the election of a Liberal minority government. In the past, minority governments have had an average lifespan of a year and a half. Some people considered the 38th parliament to be particularly unstable. It involved four parties, and only very implausible ideological combinations (e.g., Liberals + Conservatives; Liberals + BQ; Conservatives + BQ + NDP) could actually command a majority of the seats, a necessity if a government is to retain power. From its earliest moments, there was some threat of the government falling as even the Speech from the Throne almost resulted in a non-confidence vote.

Brinkmanship in the spring of 2005

The parliament came close to falling when testimony from the Gomery Commission caused public opinion to move sharply against the government. The Bloc Québécois were eager from the beginning to have an early election. The Conservatives announced they had also lost confidence in the government's moral authority. Thus, during much of spring 2005, there was a widespread belief that the Liberals would lose a confidence vote, prompting an election taking place in the spring or summer of 2005.

In a televised speech on April 21, Martin promised to request a dissolution of Parliament and begin an election campaign within 30 days of the Gomery Commission’s final report. The release date of that report would later solidify as February 1, 2006; Martin then clarified that he intended to schedule the election call so as to have the polling day in April 2006.

Later that week, the NDP, who had initially opposed the budget, opted to endorse Martin's proposal for a later election. The Liberals agreed to take corporate tax cuts out of the budget on April 26 in exchange for NDP support on votes of confidence, but even with NDP support the Liberals still fell three votes short of a majority. However, a surprise defection of former Conservative leadership candidate Belinda Stronach to the Liberal party on May 17 changed the balance of power in the House. Independents Chuck Cadman and Carolyn Parrish provided the last two votes needed for the Liberals to win the budget vote.

The deal turned out to be rather unnecessary, as the Conservatives opted to ensure the government's survival on the motion of confidence surrounding the original budget, expressing support to the tax cuts and defence spending therein. When Parliament voted on second reading and referral of the budget and the amendment on May 19, the previous events kept the government alive. The original budget bill, C-43, passed easily, as expected, but the amendment bill, C-48, resulted in an equality of votes, and the Speaker of the House broke the tie to continue the parliament. The government never got as close to falling after that date. Third reading of Bill C-48 was held late at night on an unexpected day, and several Conservatives being absent, the motion passed easily, guaranteeing there would be no election in the near future.

Aftermath of the first Gomery report

On November 1, John Gomery released his interim report, and the scandal returned to prominence. Liberal support again fell, with some polls registering an immediate ten percent drop. The Conservatives and Bloc thus resumed their push for an election before Martin's April date. The NDP stated that their support was contingent on the Liberals agreeing to move against the private provision of healthcare. The Liberals and NDP failed to come to an agreement, however, and the NDP joined the two other opposition parties in demanding an election.

However, the Liberals had intentionally scheduled the mandatory "opposition days" (where a specified opposition party controls the agenda) on November 15 (Conservative), November 17 (Bloc Québécois) and November 24 (NDP). These days meant that any election would come over the Christmas season, an unpopular idea. Following negotiations between the opposition parties, they instead issued an ultimatum to the Prime Minister to call an election immediately after the Christmas holidays or face an immediate non-confidence vote which would prompt a holiday-spanning campaign.

To that end, the NDP introduced a parliamentary motion demanding that the government drop the writ in January 2006 for a February 13 election date; however, only the prime minister has the authority to advise the Governor General on an election date, the government was therefore not bound by the NDP's motion. Martin had indicated that he remained committed to his April 2006 date, and would disregard the motion, which the opposition parties managed to pass, as expected, on November 21 by a vote of 167-129.

The three opposition leaders had agreed to delay the tabling of the no-confidence motion until the 24th, to ensure that a conference between the government and aboriginal leaders scheduled on the 24th would not be disrupted by the campaign. Parliamentary procedure dictated that the vote be deferred until the 28th. Even if the opposition hadn't put forward the non-confidence motion, the government was still expected to fall—there was to have been a vote on supplementary budget estimates on December 8, and if it had been defeated, loss of supply would have toppled the Liberals.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper, the leader of the Opposition, introduced a motion of no confidence on November 24, which NDP leader Jack Layton seconded. The motion was voted upon and passed in the evening of November 28, with all present MPs from the NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Conservatives and 3 Independents (Bev Desjarlais, David Kilgour and Pat O'Brien), voting with a combined strength of 171 votes for the motion and 132 Liberals and one Independent (Carolyn Parrish) voting against. One Bloc Québécois MP was absent from the vote. It is the fifth time a Canadian government has lost the confidence of Parliament, but the first time this has happened on a straight motion of no confidence. The four previous instances have been due to loss of supply or votes of censure.

Martin visited Governor General Michaëlle Jean the following morning, where he formally advised her to dissolve Parliament and schedule an election for January 23. In accordance with Canadian constitutional practice, she consented (such a request has only been turned down once in Canadian history), officially beginning an election campaign that had been simmering for months.

Early on in the campaign, polls showed the Liberals with a solid 5-10 point lead over the Conservatives, and poised to form a strong minority government at worst. Around Christmas, after reports of an RCMP investigation into allegations of insider trading within the Finance department, this situation changed dramatically. Almost at the same time, an unusually violent gun fight between rival gangs on December 26 in downtown Toronto (resulting in the death of 15-year-old Jane Creba, an innocent bystander) may have swayed some Ontario voters to support the more hardline CPC policies on crime. In the week leading up to the election, however, Conservative leader Stephen Harper made a series of controversial claims regarding the courts, among other things. The CPC enjoyed a fairly significant lead in polls leading up to the election, but the gap narrowed in the last few days. The result was a Conservative minority government.

Issues

Further information: Issues in the Canadian federal election, 2006

Several issues—some long-standing (notably fiscal imbalance, the gun registry, abortion, and Quebec sovereigntism), others recently brought forth by media coverage or court decisions (the sponsorship scandal, same-sex marriages, income trusts, or Canada-United States relations)—have taken the fore in debate among the parties and also influenced aspects of the parties’ electoral platforms.

Opinion polls

Compiled polling/vote chart indicating levels of party support up to the election. From the end of 2005, the shift in support from the Liberals to the Conservatives is evident.

Main article: Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006

Prior to and during the election campaign, opinion polling showed variable support for the governing Liberals and opposition Conservatives. In November 2005, the first report by Justice John Gomery was released to the public; subsequently, poll numbers for the Liberals again dropped. Just days later, polling showed the Liberals were already bouncing back; upon the election call, the Liberals held a small lead over the Conservatives and maintained this for much of December. Renewed accusations of corruption and impropriety at the end of 2005 – amid RCMP criminal probes of possible government leaks regarding income trust tax changes and advertising sponsorships – led to an upswing of Conservative support again and gave them a lead over the Liberals, portending a change in government. Polling figures for the NDP increased slightly, while Bloc figures experienced a slight dip; figures for the Green Party did not change appreciably throughout the campaign.

Candidates

The election involved the same 308 electoral districts as in 2004, except in New Brunswick, where the boundary between Acadie—Bathurst and Miramichi was ruled to be illegal. Many of the candidates were also the same: fewer incumbents chose to leave than if they had served a full term, and the parties have generally blocked challenges to sitting MPs for the duration of the minority government, although there had been some exceptions.

See also: star candidate

Gender breakdown of candidates

An on-going issue in Canadian politics is the imbalance between the genders in selection by political parties of candidates:

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Conservative/row Gender breakdown Party Leader's gender Candidates Total Female Male % female Conservative M 308 38 270 12.3% Liberal M 308 79 229 25.6% Bloc Québécois M 75 23 52 30.1% New Democrats M 308 108 200 35.1% Green M 308 72 236 23.4% Christian Heritage M 45 8 37 17.8% Progressive Cdn. F 25 1 24 4.0% Marxist-Leninist F 69 24 45 34.8% Marijuana M 23 1 22 4.3%

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Canadian Action/row Gender breakdown Party Leader's gender Candidates Total Female Male % female Canadian Action F 34 8 26 23.5% Communist M 21 7 14 33.3% Libertarian M 10 1 9 10.0% First Peoples F 5 0 5 0.0% Western Block M 4 1 3 25.0% Animal Alliance F 1 1 0 100.0% Independent 90 8 82 8.9% Total 1634 380 1254 23.3% Source: Elections Canada

Campaign slogans

The parties' campaign slogans for the 2006 election:

	English slogan	French slogan	Literal English translation
Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Conservative|File:Conservative Party of Canada.png Conservative	Stand up for Canada	Changeons pour vrai	Let's change for real / for truth (pun)
Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal|File:Lib-can cropped.png Liberal	Choose your Canada	Un Canada à votre image	Canada according to your image
Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP|File:CA-NDP-2004-Logo cropped.png NDP	Getting results for People, Working Families First	Des réalisations concrètes pour les gens	Solid results for the people
Template:Canadian politics/party colours/BQ|File:Bloc Quebecois 2004 Logo cropped.png BQ	Thankfully, the Bloc is here!	Heureusement, ici, c'est le Bloc!	Fortunately, the Bloc is here!
Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Green|File:Green Party of Canada.png Green	We can	Oui, nous pouvons	Yes, we can

Endorsements

Further information: Endorsements in the Canadian federal election, 2006 and Newspaper endorsements in the Canadian federal election, 2006

Target ridings

Further information: Target ridings in the Canadian federal election, 2006

Incumbent MPs not running for re-election

Liberals Peter Adams, Peterborough David Anderson, Victoria Jean Augustine, Etobicoke—Lakeshore Don Boudria, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Claudette Bradshaw, Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe Marlene Catterall, Ottawa West—Nepean Claude Drouin, Beauce Paul DeVillers, Simcoe North John Efford, Avalon Beth Phinney, Hamilton Mountain Jerry Pickard, Chatham-Kent—Essex Rose-Marie Ur, Middlesex—Kent—Lambton Independents David Kilgour, Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont Pat O'Brien, London—Fanshawe Carolyn Parrish, Mississauga—Erindale

Conservatives David Chatters, Westlock—St. Paul Gurmant Grewal, Newton—North Delta Jim Gouk, British Columbia Southern Interior Dale Johnston, Wetaskiwin Charlie Penson, Peace River John Reynolds, West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country Werner Schmidt, Kelowna—Lake Country Darrel Stinson, Okanagan—Shuswap Randy White, Abbotsford New Democrats Ed Broadbent, Ottawa Centre Bloquistes Alain Boire, Beauharnois—Salaberry Marcel Gagnon, Saint-Maurice—Champlain Denise Poirier-Rivard, Châteauguay—Saint-Constant

External links

Government links Elections Canada Elections Canada nominations database Election Night Results Results map, PDF, 4.6 MB. Parliament of Canada Prime Minister of Canada National media coverage CBC News - Canada Votes 2006 First English Leaders' Debate Transcript and RealVideo stream First French Leaders' Debate Windows Media video stream Second English Leaders' Debate RealVideo stream CTV News - Election 2006 The Globe and Mail - Decision 2006 Live election results canada.com - Decision Canada CBC Radio International Humour A poll asking how much one's vote is worth 2006 Election Editorial Cartoon Gallery by Graeme MacKay of The Hamilton Spectator. General links Angus Reid Consultants - Special Coverage Maple Leaf Web - Canada's Premier Political Education Website Canada Election 2006 News and Discussion Election Prediction Project LISPOP - Projected Distribution of Seats Pollingreport.ca UBC Election Stock Market 2006 Nodice Elections: Canada democraticSPACE Poll Tracking democraticSPACE Predictions Politics Canada TrendLines Riding Projections Hill and Knowlton election predictor Canada elections links wiki via Democracies Online Predicting the 2006 Canadian Election by Elmer G. Wiens The Blogging Tories - Conservative Blogs LibLogs - Liberal Blogs The Blogging Dippers - New Democrat Blogs Fair Vote Canada - About proportional representation Which party to vote for ? (saplin.com) - Vote by issue quizz

Party websites

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal/row

Liberal Party of Canada

Conservative Party of Canada

Bloc Quebecois

New Democratic Party

Green Party of Canada

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/AAEVP/row

Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party

Canadian Action Party

Christian Heritage Party of Canada

Communist Party of Canada

First Peoples National Party

Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Libertarian/row

Libertarian Party of Canada

Marijuana Party of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada

Progressive Canadian Party

Western Block Party

Preceded by 2004 federal election

Canadian federal elections

Succeeded by 40th federal election