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==Opinion polls==
==Opinion polls==
{{Main|Opinion polling for the Irish general election, 2016}}
{{Main|Opinion polling for the Irish general election, 2016}}
[[File:Opinionpolls2016.png|Record of Irish political opinion polls published in 2016. Multiple polls published on 16 January, 6 February and 21 February have been averaged.]]<br />
[[File:OpinionPollingIrelandGeneralElection2016.png|900px]]


==Polling==
==Polling==

Revision as of 13:42, 25 February 2016

Irish general election, 2016
← 2011 26 February 2016
157 of 158[nb 1] seats in Dáil Éireann
79 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Enda Kenny Joan Burton
Party Fine Gael Labour
Leader since 2 June 2002 4 July 2014
Leader's seat Mayo Dublin West
Last election 76 seats, 36.1% 37 seats, 19.4%
Current seats 66 33
 
Leader Micheál Martin Gerry Adams
Party Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin
Leader since 26 January 2011 13 November 1983 [nb 2]
Leader's seat Cork South–Central Louth
Last election 20 seats, 17.4% 14 seats, 9.9%
Current seats 21 14
Incumbent Taoiseach

Enda Kenny
Fine Gael



The next Irish general election will take place on Friday, 26 February 2016.[2] The 31st Dáil was dissolved by President Michael D. Higgins on the advice of Taoiseach Enda Kenny on 3 February 2016. The members of the 32nd Dáil will meet on Thursday, 10 March 2016 to elect a Taoiseach to head the Government of the 32nd Dáil.[3]

Electoral system

Ireland uses proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR–STV).[4] The general election will take place throughout the state to elect 158 members of Dáil Éireann, a reduction of 8 from the current 166 members. This follows the passing of the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Act 2013. The Ceann Comhairle is automatically re-elected unless he opts to retire from the Dáil.[1] The election will take place in 40 parliamentary constituencies.[5] Each multi-member constituency elects three, four or five Teachtaí Dála (Dáil deputies).[4]

Background

The outgoing government is a Fine Gael–Labour Party coalition headed by Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tánaiste Joan Burton. Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, Anti-Austerity Alliance–People Before Profit, Renua Ireland, Social Democrats, Workers and Unemployed Action, and independent TDs form the opposition in the Dáil. Fianna Fáil is the largest opposition party. The government was formed on 9 March 2011, the first day of the 31st Dáil elected on 25 February 2011.

Whereas the Constitution gives the Taoiseach authority to dissolve the Dáil, under electoral law the precise date of polling is specified by the Minister for the Environment, who was Alan Kelly of Labour.[6] Electoral law required the 31st Dáil to be dissolved by 9 March 2016.[7] There was media speculation in September 2013 about Labour, dissatisfied with the coalition, leaving and forcing an early election.[8][9] Kenny rejected predictions in October 2015 that he would call an election in November to capitalise on rising Fine Gael support.[10] In January 2016, media reported that Fine Gael and Labour respectively favoured Thursday 25 and Friday 26 February 2016 as the election date; Friday would facilitate voting by students registered at their parental home.[6][11][12] Media reported some Fine Gael TDs feared those travelling on the Friday to England to see a Six Nations rugby match would include a disproportionate number of its supporters.[6][11][13][14][15] Fine Gael TDs denied this,[16] Simon Coveney calling the reports "a box of smoke".[17]

After a cabinet meeting on 2 February, Kenny announced that he would be seeking a dissolution the following day. At 9:30 am on 3 February he formally told the Dáil this, and that the new Dáil would meet on 10 March; the Dáil was adjourned without statements from the opposition.[18] At 9:58 am, while Kenny was en route to Áras an Uachtaráin to meet the President, the election date of 26 February was confirmed from his Twitter account. At 10:35 am the President issued the proclamation dissolving the Dáil.[19] Later that day, minister Kelly signed the order setting the polling day.[2] The writs of election are issued by the clerk of the Dáil.[20]

The 24th Seanad will remain in session and will not be dissolved after until the 32nd Dáil meets.

Gender quotas

Part 6 of the Electoral (Amendment) (Political Funding) Act 2012 provides that parties will lose half of their state funding unless at least 30% of their candidates at the election were female and 30% were male.[21] All parties, with the exception of Direct Democracy Ireland, fulfilled this condition in their candidate selection.[22]

Campaign

Party slogans

Television debates

RTÉ set a minimum of three TDs for a party to be invited to its 15 February debate.[36] The Green Party, which has no TDs, took an unsuccessful High Court case against the exclusion of its leader Eamon Ryan.[36][37] An Irish language debate, moderated by Eimear Ní Chonaola was to be broadcast on TG4 on 17 February, but was cancelled due to the weak language proficiency of Adams and Burton. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin (Labour) and Pearse Doherty (Sinn Féin) were suggested as fluent replacements, but Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael insisted that a leaders' debate should be confined to party leaders only.[38][39] TG4 instead broadcast successive one-to-one interviews with each party's representative.[40] There was also a "live audience discussion" on RTÉ Two on 21 February featuring Timmy Dooley (FF), Mary Lou McDonald (SF), Aodhán Ó Ríordáin (Labour), Averil Power (non-party), Eamon Ryan (Greens), Leo Varadkar (FG), and Adrienne Wallace (AAA-PBP), it was hosted by Keelin Shanley at Facebook's Dublin office and featured questions submitted via Facebook and Twitter.[41]

Irish general election debates, 2016[42][43][44]
Date Broadcaster Moderator(s) Participants —   Name  Participant    N  Party not invited  Notes
AAA–PBP Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Renua Sinn Féin Social Democrats
8 February RTÉ Claire Byrne N McGrath Noonan Howlin N Doherty N Finance spokespersons. 50 minutes.[45]
11 February TV3 Colette Fitzpatrick
Pat Kenny 		N Martin Kenny Burton N Adams N Party leaders. 80 minutes.[46]
15 February RTÉ Claire Byrne Boyd Barrett Martin Kenny Burton Creighton Adams Donnelly Party leaders.[nb 3] 115 minutes.[49]
15 February TV3 Mick Clifford N Cowen Reilly Kelly N McDonald N Deputy leaders.[nb 4] 60 minutes.[50]
22 February RTÉ Claire Byrne N Kelleher Varadkar Lynch N Ó Caoláin N Health spokespersons.[nb 5] 60 minutes.[51]
23 February RTÉ Miriam O'Callaghan N Martin Kenny Burton N Adams N Party leaders. 85 minutes.[52][53]

Retiring incumbents

The following members of the 31st Dáil have announced that they will not contest the next general election:

Constituency Departing TD Party
Cork East Sandra McLellan[54] style="background-color: Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color" | Sinn Féin
Donegal South–West Dinny McGinley[55] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Dublin Mid–West Robert Dowds[56] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Dublin North–East Seán Kenny[57] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Dublin South Olivia Mitchell[58] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Dublin South–Central Michael Conaghan[59] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Dublin South–East Ruairi Quinn[60] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Dublin South–West Pat Rabbitte[61] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Dublin West Joe Higgins[62] style="background-color: Template:Socialist Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Socialist Party
Dún Laoghaire Eamon Gilmore[63] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Galway East Michael P. Kitt[64] style="background-color: Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color" | Fianna Fáil
Galway West Brian Walsh[65] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Kerry South Tom Fleming[66] style="background-color: Template:Independent politician/meta/color" | Independent
Kildare South Jack Wall[67] style="background-color:Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Limerick Dan Neville[68] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Louth Séamus Kirk[69] style="background-color: Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color" | Fianna Fáil
Roscommon–South Leitrim Frank Feighan[70] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Sligo–North Leitrim Michael Colreavy[71] style="background-color: Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color" | Sinn Féin
Wexford John Browne[72] style="background-color: Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color" | Fianna Fáil
Wexford Liam Twomey[73] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the Irish general election, 2016

Record of Irish political opinion polls published in 2016. Multiple polls published on 16 January, 6 February and 21 February have been averaged.

Polling

Polls will be open from 7 am to 10 pm on 26 February 2016.[2] Those living on offshore islands vote a few days earlier. A total of 551 candidates were nominated by the deadline of 11 February.[2][74] All resident Irish and UK citizens are eligible to be on the Dáil electoral register.[2] The 2016–17 register was published on 1 February by the local authorities, who are responsible for maintaining it. Applications for the supplementary register for the general election closed on 9 February.[2]

Results

Counting of votes will begin at 9 am on Saturday 27 February and will continue over the course of the weekend, or into the following week if necessary.

Summary of 26 February 2016 Dáil Éireann election results
Party
 Leader
 First
Pref votes
 % FPv
 Swing%
 Candidates
 Elected
2016
 Elected
2011
 Outgoing
[n 1]
 Change
[n 2]
 % of
seats
Fine Gael Enda Kenny 88 76 66[n 3]
Labour Joan Burton 36 37 33
Fianna Fáil Micheál Martin 71 20[n 3] 21
Sinn Féin Gerry Adams 50 14 14
AAA–PBP None 31 4[n 4] 4
Inds. 4 Change None 5 N/A[n 5] 4
Renua Lucinda Creighton 26 N/A[n 5] 3
Social Democrats Catherine Murphy
Róisín Shortall
Stephen Donnelly 		14 N/A[n 5] 3
Workers and Unemployed Séamus Healy 1 1 1
Catholic Democrats Nora Bennis 3 0 0
Communist Lynda Walker 1 0 0
Direct Democracy Pat Greene 21 N/A[n 5] 0
Fís Nua None 2 0 0
Green Eamon Ryan 40 0 0
Irish Democratic Ken Smollen 1 N/A[n 5] 0
Workers' Party of Ireland Michael Donnelly 5 0 0
Independent Alliance — 20 N/A[n 5] 5
Independent[n 6] — 135 [n 3] 14[n 3] 11[n 3]
Total 100% — 550[74] 158 166 165[n 7] Decrease8 100%
  1. ^ TDs in the party at the 2016 dissolution of the 31st Dáil
  2. ^ Change in number of seats from the 2011 election to the 2016 election
  3. ^ a b c d e The Ceann Comhairle is counted as Independent. The Ceann Comhairle returned in 2011 was Séamus Kirk, who rejoined Fianna Fáil after the election; the Ceann Comhairle to be returned in 2016 is Seán Barrett, elected in 2011 for Fine Gael.
  4. ^ Anti-Austerity Alliance–People Before Profit (AAA–PBP) was formed in 2015 by the AAA and PBP, and the AAA was formed in 2012 by the Socialist Party. The 2011 seats and votes figures used for AAA–PBP are those of Socialist and PBP candidates, who formed part of the United Left Alliance (ULA) in 2011. Other 2011 ULA seats and votes are counted under Workers and Unemployed Action and Independents.
  5. ^ a b c d e f Party was founded after the 2011 election
  6. ^ Independents doe not includes 20 candidates for the Independent Alliance.
  7. ^ One seat was vacant at the dissolution, after the resignation of Brian Walsh.

Seanad Election

Article 18.8 of the Constitution requires that an election for Seanad Éireann must take place not later than 90 days after a dissolution of the Dáil. On 9 February, Minister for the Environment Alan Kelly signed the orders for the Seanad Election.

Forty-three seats in the Seanad will be elected by the new members of the 32nd Dáil, the outgoing members of the 24th Seanad, and members of city and county councils, who will vote in five Vocational Panels. Polls will close at 11 a.m. on Monday 25 April 2016.

Three seats will be elected by graduates of the National University of Ireland and three seats will be elected by graduates and scholars of the University of Dublin (Trinity College). Polls for these two university constituencies will close at 11.00 a.m. on Tuesday 26 April 2016.

Eleven senators will be nominated by the Taoiseach chosen by the Dáil after the general election to lead the government.[75]

Footnotes

  1. ^ The Ceann Comhairle (Seán Barrett) will be automatically deemed re-elected.[1]
  2. ^ Gerry Adams became President of Sinn Féin on 13 November 1983, but only became parliamentary leader of Sinn Féin in the Dáil once elected to the Dáil for the first time in February 2011. Prior to that its parliamentary leader in the Dáil since 1997 was Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.
  3. ^ The Social Democrats were represented by one of their three TDs, who are interim co-leaders.[47] The AAA–PBP have no leader and nominated Richard Boyd Barrett of PBP, one of their four TDs.[48]
  4. ^ Fianna Fáil have had no deputy leader since Éamon Ó Cuív resigned the post in 2012. The party nominated Barry Cowen for the deputy leaders' debate.
  5. ^ Non-party candidate Denis Naughten was also included as a participant.

References

  1. ^ a b "Constitution of Ireland". Irish Statute Book. Attorney General's office. August 2012. Retrieved 10 February 2016., Article 16.6; "Electoral Act, 1992". Irish Statute Book. Attorney General's office. 5 November 1992. Retrieved 10 February 2016., section 36.
  2. ^ a b c d e f "Minister Kelly signs Polling Day Order". News. Department of the Environment, Community & Local Government. 3 February 2016. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
  3. ^ "President Higgins dissolves 31st Dáil". Irish Times. 3 February 2016. Retrieved 3 February 2016.
  4. ^ a b "Proportional Representation – Information". Irish Citizens Information Board. Retrieved 26 October 2008.
  5. ^ "Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Act 2013". Irish Statute Book. Attorney General's office. 20 March 2013. Retrieved 11 August 2013.
  6. ^ a b c Ryan, Philip; Horan, Niamh; O'Connor, Niall (31 January 2015). "Six Nations match at the centre of row over election date". Sunday Independent. Retrieved 2 February 2016.
  7. ^ "Electoral Act, 1992". Office of the Attorney General. Retrieved 27 May 2014.
  8. ^ Beesley, Arthur (16 September 2013). "Kenny says next election will be held in March 2016". Retrieved 16 September 2013.
  9. ^ Kelly, Fiach (8 June 2015). "Kenny says election will follow end of Coalition programme". The Irish Times. Retrieved 10 June 2015.
  10. ^ O'Connell, Hugh (12 October 2015). "Why nobody is a winner after Enda forgoes a cheeky election". TheJournal.ie. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
  11. ^ a b D'Arcy, Ciarán (1 February 2016). "Taoiseach expected to announce election date on Tuesday". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2 February 2016.
  12. ^ Ó Cionnaith, Fiachra (30 January 2016). "General Election date may come down to rugby and students". BreakingNews.ie. Retrieved 2 February 2016.
  13. ^ "Mary Lou McDonald says row over election date is 'bonkers'". BreakingNews.ie. 31 January 2016. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  14. ^ Flanagan, Pat (1 February 2016). "General Election 2016: Coalition at war over election date as Labour count on student vote". Irish Daily Mirror. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  15. ^ Lennon, Barry (1 February 2016). "Joan Burton insists day of General Election makes no difference to result - Independent.ie". Irish Independent. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  16. ^ Lord, Miriam (28 January 2016). "Micheál Martin begs for just a little more time". The Irish Times. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  17. ^ Roche, Barry (1 February 2016). "Coveney does not want government relying on Lowry". The Irish Times. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  18. ^ "Advice to Dissolve Dáil: Announcement". Dáil Éireann debates. Oireachtas. 3 February 2016. p. 3. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
  19. ^ "The Dáil has been dissolved at Áras an Uachtaráin". Irish Examiner. 3 February 2016. Retrieved 3 February 2016.
  20. ^ "Electoral Act, 1992, Section 39". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
  21. ^ "Electoral (Amendment) (Political Funding) Act 2012 Section 42". Irish Statute Book. Retrieved 16 February 2016.
  22. ^ "Candidates for the 2016 General Election (by constituency)". Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses. Retrieved 19 February 2016.
  23. ^ "Taoiseach promises USC cut - for higher earners - if re-elected". Breaking News. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  24. ^ "Fine Gael adopts 'It's the Economy, Stupid' mantra". RTE.ie. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  25. ^ "Political parties step up pre-election campaigning". RTE.ie. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  26. ^ "€2 an hour for childcare puts parents on a wage of €2 an hour". www.irishexaminer.com. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  27. ^ "Miriam Lord: Lacklustre Burton fails even to attract protesters". The Irish Times. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  28. ^ "► VIDEO: Fianna Fáil look to the future by channeling the past". www.irishtimes.com. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  29. ^ "Sinn Féin on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  30. ^ "People Before Profit on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  31. ^ "Renua first to unveil election posters – with familiar slogan". The Irish Times. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  32. ^ "Social Democrats offer a 'relatively mainstream alternative'". The Irish Times. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  33. ^ "Social Democrats on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  34. ^ "Social Democrats launch election campaign in Dublin". The Irish Times. Retrieved 6 February 2016.
  35. ^ "Green Party Ireland on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  36. ^ a b "Court told RTÉ leaders' debate rule 'unlawful'". RTÉ.ie. 11 February 2016. Retrieved 11 February 2016.
  37. ^ "Green Party loses bid to be included in RTÉ debate". RTÉ.ie. 15 February 2016. Retrieved 15 February 2016.
  38. ^ McGee, Harry (14 February 2016). "TG4 debate in Irish cancelled over Joan Burton's and Gerry Adams' lack of fluency". The Irish Times. Retrieved 18 February 2016.
  39. ^ "Kenny to take part in TV3 leaders' debate | The Times". The Times. Retrieved 9 February 2016.
  40. ^ McGee, Harry (18 February 2016). "Fine Gael shows signs of urgency - or is it panic?". The Irish Times. Retrieved 18 February 2016.
  41. ^ "Social issues dominate Election Special". RTÉ.ie. 21 February 2016. Retrieved 22 February 2016.
  42. ^ "Green Party objects to 'exclusion' from RTÉ debates". The Irish Times. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  43. ^ "RTÉ Unveils Election 2016 TV and Digital Campaign Coverage | The Irish Film & Television Network". www.iftn.ie. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  44. ^ "TV3 to host first party leaders' debate on Thursday". The Irish Times. Retrieved 9 February 2016.
  45. ^ "Claire Byrne Live: The Big Picture". www.rte.ie. Retrieved 9 February 2016.
  46. ^ "FactCheck: The truth and the lies from last night's Leaders' Debate". The Journal. 12 February 2016. Retrieved 12 February 2016.
  47. ^ O'Connor, Niall (15 February 2016). "Donnelly to be Soc Dems 'leader' in debate - Independent.ie". Irish Independent. Retrieved 16 February 2016.
  48. ^ McGee, Harry (16 February 2016). "Election 2016: Five things we learned from the leaders' debate". The Irish Times. Retrieved 16 February 2016. the three leaders (two nominated) of smaller parties
  49. ^ "The RTE Leaders Debate: as it happened". The Journal. 15 January 2016. Retrieved 16 February 2016.
  50. ^ O’Brien, Stephen (14 February 2016). "TV3: Browne not sacrificed for Kenny". The Sunday Times. Retrieved 15 February 2016.
  51. ^ "Claire Byrne Live: The Big Picture". www.rte.ie. Retrieved 23 February 2016.
  52. ^ "Watch Prime Time Leaders' Debate online". RTÉ Player. Retrieved 24 February 2016.
  53. ^ "As it happened: Leaders' Debate". RTE.ie. Retrieved 24 February 2016.
  54. ^ "Sinn Féin Cork East TD Sandra McLellan will not contest election". RTÉ News. 10 October 2015.
  55. ^ "McHugh replaces McGinley in Cabinet reshuffle". Donegal Democrat. 15 July 2014.
  56. ^ "Robert Dowds decides not to contest general election". Irish Times. 21 September 2015.
  57. ^ "Here are all the Labour TDs stepping down at the next election". TheJournal.ie. 10 July 2015.
  58. ^ "Fine Gael TD Olivia Mitchell confirms she will stand down". The Irish Times. 1 September 2015.
  59. ^ "Labour TD confirms he will not contest next general election". The Irish Times. 30 June 2015.
  60. ^ "Quinn quits as minister and set to leave Dail". Evening Herald. 2 July 2014.
  61. ^ "Pat Rabbitte will NOT be contesting the next general election". TheJournal.ie. 6 July 2015.
  62. ^ "Joe Higgins TD 'not retiring' from politics despite deciding against running in election". Irish Independent. 27 April 2014. Retrieved 27 April 2014.
  63. ^ "Eamon Gilmore to retire from politics at next election". The Irish Times. 2 June 2015. Retrieved 2 June 2015.
  64. ^ "Fianna Fáil TD Michael Kitt retires from politics". The Irish Times. 3 September 2015. Retrieved 15 September 2015.
  65. ^ "Fine Gael TD Brian Walsh will not contest the next election". The Irish Times. 10 November 2015. Retrieved 11 November 2015.
  66. ^ "Tom Fleming pulls out of General Election race". Radio Kerry. 5 February 2016.
  67. ^ "Kildare South to open up as Labour stalwart Jack Wall retires from Dáil". The Irish Independent. 11 July 2015.
  68. ^ "Dan Neville surprises Fine Gael by saying he will not contest general election". Irish Independent. 11 August 2015.
  69. ^ "Louth TD Kirk will not contest next general election". Irish Examiner. 17 September 2014.
  70. ^ "TD Frank Feighan will not contest next general election". Irish Independent. 13 July 2015.
  71. ^ "Sinn Féin TD Michael Colreavy will not contest next election". The Irish Times. 17 February 2015. Retrieved 17 February 2015.
  72. ^ "Fianna Fáil TD John Browne will not contest the next election". The Irish Times. 29 September 2015.
  73. ^ "Liam Twomey will not contest general election". The Irish Times. 17 July 2015.
  74. ^ a b "551 candidates set to contest election". RTÉ.ie. 11 February 2016. Retrieved 11 February 2016.
  75. ^ "Minister Kelly signs order for the dates & times for the Seanad Éireann General Election". Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government. Retrieved 19 February 2016.

Manifestos

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