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|[http://talcualdigital.com/index.php/2018/05/10/la-necesidad-de-una-candidatura-unica-y-el-inesperado-javier-bertucci-ii/ Datanalisis]
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Revision as of 06:19, 12 May 2018

Venezuelan presidential election, 2018
← 2013 20 May 2018 (2018-05-20)
 
Candidate Nicolás Maduro Henri Falcón Javier Bertucci
Party PSUV Progressive Advance Independent
Alliance GPPSB — —
Home state Capital District Lara Carabobo
 
Candidate Reinaldo Quijada
Party UPP 89
Home state Carabobo
Incumbent President

Nicolás Maduro
PSUV



Politics of Venezuela
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Executive
Legislature
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Elections
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flag Venezuela portal

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela on 20 May 2018.[1] Considered a snap election, the original electoral date was scheduled for December 2018,[2] pulled ahead to 22 April 2018,[3] but then delayed for additional weeks to May 2018.[4]

Several Venezuelan NGOs such as Foro Penal Venezolano, Súmate, Voto Joven, the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory and the Citizen Electoral Network, have expressed their concern over the irregularities of the electoral schedule, including the lack of the Constituent Assembly's competences to summon the elections, impeding participation of opposition political parties and the lack of time for standard electoral functions.[5][6][7][8] Because of this, the United Nations Human Rights Council,[9] European Union, the Organization of American States, the Lima Group[10] and countries such as the United States and Colombia have rejected the electoral process.[11][12][13][14][15] However, countries such as Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua and Russia have voiced their support for the announcement.[16][17][18][19]

Background

Further information: Crisis in Venezuela (2012–present)

Following the death of President Hugo Chavez, Venezuela faced a severe socioeconomic crisis during the presidency of his successor, Nicolás Maduro. Due to the country's high levels of urban violence, inflation, and chronic shortages of basic goods attributed primarily to the devaluated currency price of Venezuelan bolívar and to some extent due to economic policies such as strict price controls, and civil insurrection in Venezuela culminated into the 2014–17 protests. Protests occurred over the years, with demonstrations occurring in various sizes depending on the events Venezuelans were facing during the crisis.

After facing years of crisis, the Venezuelan opposition pursued a recall referendum against President Maduro, presenting a petition to the CNE on 2 May 2016.[20] By August 2016, the momentum to recall President Maduro appeared to be progressing, with the CNE setting a date for the second phase of collecting signatures, though it made the schedule strenuous, stretching the process into 2017 which made it impossible for the opposition to activate new presidential elections.[21] On 21 October 2016, the CNE suspended the referendum only days before preliminary signature-gatherings were to be held.[22] The CNE blamed alleged voter fraud as the reason for the cancellation of the referendum.[22] International observers criticized the move, stating that CNE's decision made Maduro look as if he were seeking to rule as a dictator.[23][24] Days after the recall movement was cancelled, 1.2 million Venezuelans protested throughout the country against the move, demanding President Maduro to leave office, with Caracas protests remaining calm while protests in other states resulted in clashes between demonstrators and authorities, leaving one policeman dead, 120 injured and 147 arrested.[25] That day the opposition gave President Maduro a deadline of 3 November 2016 to hold elections, with opposition leader Henrique Capriles stating, "Today we are giving a deadline to the government. I tell the coward who is in Miraflores ... that on 3 November the Venezuelan people are coming to Caracas because we are going to Miraflores."[25] By 7 December 2016, dialogue halted between the two.[26]

Days later on 1 November 2016, then National Assembly President and opposition leader Henry Ramos Allup announced the cancellation of the 3 November march to the Miraflores presidential palace, with Vatican-led dialogue between the opposition and the government beginning.[27] Two months later on 13 January 2017 after talks stalled, the Vatican officially pulled out of the dialogue.[28] Further protests were much smaller due to the fear of repression[citation needed], with the opposition organizing surprise protests instead of organized mass marches.[29] The opposition then began to focus on its electoral efforts, with only sporadic protests occurring thereafter.

Following the 2017 Venezuelan constitutional crisis, protests in Venezuela intensified in mid-2017, though the movement died down after President Maduro called for a controversial special election, which resulted with the installation of the pro-government superbody, the Constituent National Assembly. Regional elections that occurred months later further cemented the government's power after they won 18 of the 23 governorships.

Election preparations

After the government overcame mass protests and won two major disputed elections, one of which installed a constitutional superbody, the government rallied behind President Maduro, with government sources stating that elections were to be moved ahead to February or March of 2018 instead of the planned late-2018 date to take advantage of their electoral momentum.[30] On 11 December 2017, President Maduro announced that many of the main opposition parties, including Justice First and Popular Will, would be banned from participating in the 2018 presidential election because of their boycott of the 2017 municipal elections.[31]

In February 2018, the government announced that elections would be held on 22 April 2018, less than three months before the date.[32] Popular Will announed on 16 February that it will boycott the elections.[33] Following weeks of controversy involving international condemnation and rejection of potential election results, the CNE delayed the election for a few additional weeks pushing for a late-May election date.[34]

Electoral system

See also: Elections in Venezuela § Polling procedure

The President of Venezuela is elected by plurality in a single round of voting.[35]

The elections will be overseen by the National Electoral Council, with poll workers drafted via a lottery of registered voters. Polling places are equipped with multiple high-tech touch-screen DRE voting machines. After the vote is cast, each machine prints out a paper ballot, or VVPAT, which is inspected by the voter and deposited in a ballot box belonging to the machine's table. The voting machines perform in a stand-alone fashion, disconnected from any network until the polls close.[36] Voting session closure at each of the voting stations in a given polling center is determined either by the lack of further voters after the lines have emptied, or by the hour, at the discretion of the president of the voting table.

After the signature of the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees on 1 March by the political parties Great Patriotic Pole, Movimiento al Socialismo, Avanzada Progresista and COPEI, the United Nations was requested to send a delegation to monitor the election, but the organization refused after receiving a formal invitation and visit by the main candidates or their representatives.[37] The Carter Center has turned down Maduro’s invitation to send an observation team on election day, as well other as other election observing institutions.[38]

Smartmatic, the electoral product company which had participated in the majority of elections under the Bolivarian government, ceased operations in its native country in March 2018, stating that they could not guarantee the validity of election results through its machines.[39]

Primary process

Opposition

March in support of the candidacy of Lorenzo Mendoza on 15 January.

In March 2017, parties of the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), the opposition's main electoral alliance, began discussion on who would be their candidate for the 2018 presidential elections. On 14 March 2017, Popular Will announced that Leopoldo López, the party's National Coordinator who is currently imprisoned for his role in the 2014 Venezuelan protests against the Bolivarian government, was chosen to be their candidate for the MUD primaries.[40] Days later on 20 March 2017, Justice First chose Henrique Capriles Radonski to be their candidate for the primaries, his third run for the presidency, with his previous attempts occurring in the 2012 and 2013 Venezuelan presidential election.[41] On 21 March 2017, Henry Ramos Allup, a veteran politician in Venezuela, was chosen to be the candidate for the Democratic Action.[42]

The Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) announced that it will boycott the presidential election.[43]

Opinion polls

As of 5 May 2018, a poll by DolarToday showed that if the elections were the current day, 45% of the participants would give their opposition vote for Lorenzo Mendoza, CEO of Empresas Polar, 24% for Leopoldo Lopez, 12% for María Corina Machado, 9% for Henry Ramos Allup, 7% for Henrique Capriles and 3% for Henri Falcón.[44]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Capriles Ramos López Others/
Independent 		Undecided/
Don't know
Venebarametro[45] 23 October—7 November 2017 889 12.6% 7.3% style="text-align:center;background:Template:Popular Will/meta/color;" align=center| 23.8% 47.3% 9.0%
Hercon[46] 20–29 August 2017 1,200 16.2% 8.1% style="text-align:center;background:Template:Popular Will/meta/color;" align=center| 20.3% 16.4% 39.0%
Hercon[47] 15–30 April 2017 1,200 25.1% style="text-align:center;background:Template:Democratic Action/meta/color;" align=center| 29.5% – 4.9% 16.5%
Datanalisis[48] 29 November–12 December 2016 1,200 16.9% 4.7% style="text-align:center;background:Template:Popular Will/meta/color;" align=center| 21.2% 1.0% 18.5%
Hercon[49] 25 September–10 October 2016 1,200 25.8% style="text-align:center;background:Template:Democratic Action/meta/color;" align=center| 33.6% – – 40.5%
Datanalisis[50] July 2015 1,000 17.3% - style="text-align:center;background:Template:Popular Will/meta/color;" align=center| 25.2% 12.7% 12.6%
Datanalisis[51] January -February 2015 1,000 17.4% - style="text-align:center;background:Template:Popular Will/meta/color;" align=center| 20.0% 17.3% 16.6%

Disqualifications

The majority of popular leaders of the MUD and other members of the opposition could not apply for the elections because of administrative and legal procedures against them and were disqualified from participating in the presidential elections by the government. This included Henrique Capriles (candidate for the 2012 and 2013 elections), Leopoldo López,(sentenced to almost 14 years of prison during the 2014 Venezuelan protests), Antonio Ledezma (arrested in 2015 and later placed under house arrest), Freddy Guevara (whose parliamentary immunity was removed and fled to the residence of the Chilean ambassador) and David Smolansky (currently in exile), as well as María Corina Machado and Miguel Rodríguez Torres, former defense minister and dissident chavista, also incarcerated.[52] On 5 April 2017, the Comptroller General of Venezuela notified Capriles that for 15 years, he would be prevented from participating in public office, due to his alleged misuse of public funds, a charge that Capriles denied.[53]

Ramos Allup has in his head that he could be a presidential candidate. That is Maduro's candidate...

Henrique Capriles[54]

The main opposition political parties were disqualified after they were forced to reregister themselves for a second time in less than a year by the National Electoral Council (CNE in Spanish) after not participating in the 2017 municipal elections. The parties Popular Will and Puente refused to do it, while the CNE prevented Justice First; only the party Acción Democrática was revalidated.[55] In late-January 2018, the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice impided the revalidation of the Democratic Unity Roundtable card, the most voted in the electoral history of the country, and was also banned.[56][57] Finally, Justice First was disqualified weeks later in early-February 2018 from the presidential race, only leaving Democratic Action and other minor opposition parties.[58]

The actions by the government cleared the path for Henry Ramos Allup and his Democratic Action to gain popularity in the presidential elections. Ramos Allup was accused of "cozying up" to the ruling PSUV party during the recent regional elections. He has been criticized for his negotiations with the government.[54] After many other opposition parties were disqualified, President Maduro singled out Ramos Allup and stated that he like to run against him.[59]

PSUV

Due to the perceived unpopularity of President Nicolás Maduro within the PSUV, it was speculated that potential candidates would include former National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, Vice President Tareck El Aissami and National Constituent Assembly President Delcy Rodriguez.[60] However, Maduro was eventually chosen to run as the party's presidential candidate.

Presidential candidates

Maduro

Nicolás Maduro's presidential campaign logo.

Nicolás Maduro, the successor of Hugo Chávez, is the President of Venezuela running for re-election after assuming the presidency in 2013. Maduro has denied that there is a humanitarian crisis in Venezuela and says that Venezuelans dying from poor health is "exaggerated", blaming many shortcomings on the United States.[61] Maduro made the campaign promise of creating a "new economy" in Venezuela.[62]

The Bolivarian government also increased spending on populist policies during the campaign to help sway voters to support Maduro.[63] Analysts have suggested that such policies would further exacerbate the negative effects of the crisis in Bolivarian Venezuela.[63]

Falcón

Campaign posters of Falcón in Caracas.

Henri Falcón is the former governor of Lara who left PSUV in 2010. His political positioning is seen by some as a good way to govern in-between the government and the opposition, though some Chavistas believe he is a "traitor" while some in the opposition think he is an infiltrator.[64] Falcón was officially nominated for his candidacy by the Movement for Socialism on 26 February 2018.[65]

Bertucci

Campaign wall paintings of Bertucci in Altamira, Caracas.

Javier Bertucci, an evangelical pastor, announced his candidacy on February 18, 2018.[66] He stressed to bring back the "values" of Venezuelans, stating that his church has cared for the poor in Venezuela.[67] Bertucci is against abortion and believes same-sex partners should not adopt children, stating "I respect and love any person who has a different sexual orientation, but in a legal sense, I would have to tell them categorically that I would never support this."[67] However, Bertucci has said that despite his "absolutely conservative" values, he would hold a referendum in Venezuela on whether to legalize abortion and same-sex marriage, stating that he would support the decisions of the people, "even those contrary to Christianity".[68] Bertucci was one of the Venezuelan businessmen involved in the Panama Papers leak.[69]

Quijada

Reinaldo Quijada an electrical engineer who follows the chavista movement, stated he would take up the "revolutionary process" in his campaign and that "we are certainly opposed to the government of President Maduro, we are certainly opposed to the PSUV, but we are not opposed to the revolutionary process."[70] Quijada and his party state that the PSUV and MUD should disappear while also believing "in political irreverence, in ethical coherence, in the eternal values of honesty, dignity, human solidarity and other immemorial human principles without which life itself has no meaning."[71]

Ratti

Luis Alejandro Ratti [es] is a Chavista businessman and evangelical pastor. He was formerly part of the Hugo Chavez Bolivarian Front until he broke ranks with the Maduro government. During his campaign, Ratti stated he would "represent the people with chivalry, bravery, and without fear, guaranteeing that they are going to have a different path than the last twenty years".[62][72] After retiring from the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees on 30 April, he announced his exit from the presidential race on 8 May and announced his support for Henri Falcón.[73]

Campaign

On 2 April 2018, Falcón's security adviser Colonel Teodoro Campos was attacked by pro-government colectivos, with a head wound that left the deputy severly injured and later had him placed in an intensive care unit where he was intubated and placed on a ventilator.[74]

CNE president Tibisay Lucena announced on 12 April that the political parties and actors that promote the abstention will be sanctioned.[75] The campaign for the presidential elections and the legislative councils started on 22 April and ends on 17 May midnight.[76] In late April Maduro visited the state of Bolviar and stated that this "is a new beginning to get 10 million votes" and that "love will overcome May 20 over the lies, of manipulation and economic warfare". [77] On 24 April, during a campaign event in the Carabobo state, Nicolás Maduro declared that during the electoral campaign the government would call on all Venezuelans with the Carnet de la Patria to look after votes, assured that that the closer they get to 10 million votes, "the more guarantee of peace, of stability" and of "economic recovery" there would be. Maduro called his rival Henri Falcón "Faltrump" due to his dollarization proposal and Javier Bertucci "Little Soup Bertucci", referring to his charity activities of delivering soup to impoverished Venezuelans.[78]

Bertucci denounced that his campaign manager in the Sucre state, Ángel Arias, was shot in the stomach on 27 April while making preparations for a midday speech scheduled in Cumaná. According to a press release of Bertucci's party, a 25 year old man shot Arias after trying to steal his cellphone; the robber did not achieve his mission and fled by motorcycle, leaving the manager at the scene. Aria was moved to a health center to be attended to his wounds.[79]

I would take a rifle to start the armed revolution. This people will never stand a sellout and capitalist government, that is why we have to prepare ourselves to defend in peace the sovereignty and democracy of Venezuela.

Nicolás Maduro

On May 1, from the Cojedes state, Maduro threatened with taking action against supermarkets and food centers nationwide if they increased the prices of products in the following days, declaring that "by hook or by crook" and that after the 20 May election, he said "I'll be president anyways".[80][81] On May 2, in a campaign act in the Vargas state, Maduro warned that if a "capitalist government" that handed over the country's resources were to be installed, he would take up arms himself to defend the revolution, stating "I would be the first one to raise the alarm, grab a gun and start an armed revolution with the people, if necessary",[82] saying that his opponent Henri Falcón was the International Monetary Fund's candidate. Maduro affirmed not to care about the position of the countries that have declared that they will dismiss the presidential elections, saying "What fuck do I give that Europe does not recognize me, that Washington does not recognize me. I care about what the Venezuelan people say".[83]

Public opinion

In a January 2018 poll surrounding the presidential election, Meganalisis stated that only 29% of respondents desired to vote in the elections and 72.5% stated that they did not trust the CNE electoral body. Those who chose not to vote had various reasons; 45% believed that even if they voted, hunger would continue, 20% believed it was a "waste of time" and 13% believed that the opposition had betrayed the country. As for the support of political parties, 81% stated that they were not part of any party, 12% were part of the government PSUV party and 6% supported the opposition-led MUD.[84][85]

According to Meganalisis, an April 2018 poll found that 65.4% of respondents believed that presidential candidate and former state governor Henri Falcón was working in collaboration with President Maduro to create the fraudulent appearance of a legitimate democratic election.[86] Henri Falcon disputes this, however.[87]

Presidential election
Date(s) conducted Pollster Sample size Maduro Falcón Bertucci Quijada Ratti Others None/Undecided Lead
10 May 2018 Datanalisis 1,000 16.7% 27.6% 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 4.7% 19.7% 11.1%
20 Apr-4 May 2018 ICS - 55.9% 25.4% 16.2% - - - - 30.5%
2-18 Apr 2018 Hinterlaces 1,050 51% 28% 16% - - - 5% 23.0%
18 Apr 2018 Meganalisis 1,050 15.3% 6.2% 0.9% 0.07% 0.05% - 77.1% 61.8%
11 Apr 2018 Datanalisis - 32.0% 37.0% 14.0% - - - 17.0% 5.0%
9 Apr 2018 Datincorp 1,996 22.0% 34.0% 9% - - 2.0% 33.0% 12.0%
8 Apr 2018 Datanalisis 800 34.0% 40.0% - - - - - 6.0%
19–29 Mar 2018 Datanalisis 800 34.3% 41.4% - - - - - 7.1%
27 Feb–4 Mar 2018 Meganalisis 1,090 13.7% 3.5% 0.03% 0.05% 0.01% - 82.5% 68.8%
19 Feb 2018 Datincorp 1,499 28.0% 31.0% - - - 31.0% 10.0% 3.0%
1–14 Feb 2018 Datanalisis 1,000 26.1% 38.0% - - - 40,4%
(Leopoldo López)		 - 2.1%
24 Jan–13 Feb 2018 Hercon 1,200 19.5% 6.9% - - - 21.0%
(Lorenzo Mendoza)		 26.8% 5.8%
8 Feb 2018 Consultores 30.11 - 32% 10.5% - - - 25% 24.7% 21.5%
25 Jan–5 Feb 2018 Ivad 1,200 17.6% 23.6% - - - 13.5% 10.6% 6.0%
22–27 Jan 2018 Meganalisis 1,120 9.4% - - - - 28.7%
(Lorenzo Mendoza)		 52.3% 23.6%
Date(s) conducted Pollster Sample size MUD GPPSB AP Others Undecided Lead
26 Jan 2018 MUD disqualified
10 Jan 2018 Datincorp 1,009 55% 21% - - 4% 34.0%
10 Jan 2018 Datincorp 1,009 59% 19% - - - 40.0%
14 Dec 2017 Delphos - 52.8% 27.7% - - 10.6% 25.1%
7 Dec 2017 Venebarometro 1,200 46.3% 28.6% - - 25.1% 17.7%
10 Nov–23 Nov 2017 Datanalisis 997 44.4% 9.0% - - - 35.4%
20–29 Aug 2017 Hercon 1,200 56.1% 15.6% - 3.3% 25.1% 40.5%
10–17 May 2017 UCV 1,200 52% 14% - 22% 12% 38%
28 Jan–8 Feb 2017 Venebarometro 1,200 44.8% 25.8% - 23.4% 6.1% 29.0%
20 Jan–6 Feb 2017 Hercon 1,200 55.4% 19.9% - 16.0% 8.6% 35.5%
29 Nov–12 Dec 2016 Datanalisis 1,200 58% 14.4% - - 9.6% 43.6%
15–30 Nov 2016 Hercon 1,300 53.13% 22.1% - 15.53% 9.13% 31.03%
12–24 Nov 2016 Venebarometro 1,200 52.8% 26.5% - 14.4% 6.3% 26.3%
20–24 Jul 2016 Meganalisis 1,220 66.1% 23.2% - - 10.6% 52.5%
1–16 Apr 2016 Hercon 1,200 73.2% 20.7% - - - 42.9%
5–15 Sep 2015 Venebarometro 1,200 70.9% 17.0% - - 12.1% 53.9%
8–16 Aug 2015 Ivad 1,200 69.2% 18.1% - - 18.1% 51.1%
29 Sep 2014 Ivad 800 61.1% 26.8% - - 12.1 34.3%
4 Jun 2014 Hercon - 62.5% 27.1% - - 10.4% 35.4%
10–22 Apr 2014 Venebarometro 1,200 49.6% 34.6% - - 15.8% 15%
10–26 Mar 2014 ICS 1,400 33.7% 55.8% - - 9.2% 22.1%
14 Feb–14 Mar 2014 Keller 1,200 48% 34% - 3% 10% 14%
19–26 Jul 2013 Ivad - 45.1% 39.3% - - 15.7% 5.8%
17 Jun–6 Jul 2013 Varianzas 2,000 50.0% 44.6% - - 5.4% 5.4%
2–11 May 2013 Hercon 1,300 54.8% 40.4% - - 4.8% 14.4%
28 Apr–5 May 2013 Ivad 1,200 45.8% 40.8% - - - 5%

Results

Candidate Party Votes %
Nicolas Maduro United Socialist Party of Venezuela TBD TBD
Henri Falcón Progressive Advance TBD TBD
Javier Bertucci Independent TBD TBD
Valid votes TBD TBD
Invalid/blank votes TBD TBD
Total TBD 100
Registered voters/turnout TBD TBD
Source:

Conduct

National Electoral Council bias

The Venezuelan Electoral Observatory noted that the call for elections was disrespecting the tradition of organizing them in December, while nothing in the Venezuelan constitution prevents elections from being called early,[88] with exceptions in the year 2000 during the re-legitimization of all public powers by the approval of a new constitution; in October 2012 for the illness of Hugo Chávez and in April 2013 for being an election due to the death of the president, maintaining that "the decision announced again showed the political bias of the electoral referee, since it included elements that made it difficult to have an election under equal conditions "[89] and that the CNE" struck a blow to democratic plurality "by preventing opposition parties from participating in the presidential election.[90] It also stated that since 2016 the electoral justice system administered in the country "Is not impartial", citing the cases of the indigenous deputies of the Amazonas state who were dismissed from their positions for alleged irregularities in their election, which after two years have not been proven, while the fraud allegations made by the candidate to the governorship of Bolívar, Andrés Velásquez in October of 2017 have yet not been investigated.[89]

Announcement

The Venezuelan constitution established that the Electoral Branch, conformed by the National Electoral Council and its subordinate organisms, is corresponded of "the organizations, administration, direction and surveillance of all the acts related to the election of positions of representation of the public branches, as well as the referendums'." Despite this, the Constituent Assembly issued a decree ordering the CNE to organize the presidential elections in April.[37] The Venezuelan Electoral Observatory claimed that "the decision announced by the CNE evidences once more the political bias of the electoral arbitrator" and warned that 74 days are insufficient to guarantee the equality and transparency of the elections.[91]

The Observatory pointed out that phases of the process such as the selection of new board members, the choosing of subordinate electoral organisms in public raffles, the deployment of extraordinary journeys of inscription, the update of the Electoral Registry in a broad span that allows the incorporation of the largest amount of Venezuelans, the maintenance of the voting machines, the appropriate implementation of technical audits that guarantee the proper functioning of the automated voting system and the organization of quality international missions would all be affected due to the lack of time.[91]

The Electoral Citizen Network described as "irregular" the order of the Constituent Assembly to summon presidential elections before 30 April 2018, claiming that it is a violation of the constitution and civil rights.[92] Like the 2017 municipal elections, the announcement was made before at least six months in advance to facilitate the lapses established in the electoral normative. Súmate and Voto Joven indicated that this would shorten the journeys terms of the Electoral Registry, generating a "hasty and little transparent process". The Electoral Citizen Network demanded the Electoral Branch the performance of special operatives for the inscription and update of voters in Venezuela and abroad.[93][94]

We deeply regret that elections were summoned without a broad agreement of its schedule nor of the conditions for a inclusive and credible electoral process

Federica Mogherini

Ramón Guillermo Aveledo, former executive secretary of the Democratic Unity Roundtable, compared the elections to the 1957 Venezuelan referendum of dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez, reminding that article 82 the Organic Law for the Public Municipal Branch specifies the prohibition that the elections for municipal positions are carried out along with the national elections, and that the mandate of the National Assembly ends in 2021, meaning that shortening its period, something he claims is not provided in the constitution or the Venezuelan electoral laws, is "disolving it", which would be the same "that a coup d' etat" to the Legislative Branch.[95]

Electoral schedule

Two weeks after the Constituent Assembly order and the failure of the dialogue between the government and the opposition in the Dominican Republic, the CNE fixed 22 April 2018 as the day of the elections in a press conference, also announcing 15 audits and giving some dates, but without formally disclosing the electoral schedule. After changing the date of the elections on 1 March, the CNE took 13 days to disclose the schedule. The Venezuelan Electoral Observatory and the Global Observatory of Communication and Democracy declared that the CNE has reduced the terms in each of the phases of the electoral schedule for the presidential elections since 2013, and in comparison to the 2006 and 2012 schedules with the 2018 one, the spans of the phases went from having up to three months to only two or three days in fundamental aspects, according to the last announcement of the elections.Both the inscription to the Electoral Registry as the candidates applications and the electoral campaign have suffered significant reductions. To determine the electoral districts, the CNE must have done it complying with the population estimates provided by the National Institute of Statistics of Venezuela [es], which before giving them to the Electoral Branch needs the approval of the National Assembly. This step was ommited and the CNE published the districts for the legislative councils at its discretion, without disclosing its process and without answering these complainsts.[37]

On 26 March the Peace and Justice Center (Cepaz in Spanish) denounced that the CNE changed the schedule of the 20 May elections "clandestinely and surreptitiously", what constitutes "a new irregularity that prevents the adequate information about the electoral offers from being guaranteed and facilitated to the voters", referring to the modification made for the ballot choices by the political parties, electoral groups, indigenous organizations and own initiative carried out on 24 March and for the regional candidates, scheduled for 26 March in the 23 regional offices of the CNE. According to the Electoral Branch schedule published on 13 March, the choice on ballot for national organizations would be carried out on 21 March and in the case of the regional ones on 22 March, but each one was postponed between three and four days, reason why the Cepaz warned that with this "opaque and quiet modification of the electoral schedule" five days were removed from the production and distribution process of the invalid electoral ballots, "further diminishing the possibility of having voters informed".[96]

The Venezuelan Electoral Observatory stressed in its report about the elections that the postulation of the presidential candidates were given for only three days in 2018, from 26 to 28 February, while the modification and sustitution of postulations, "the CNE enabled 118 days on 2012 and only 2 March in 2018 for this ocassion", and although the terms were changed to add the legislative councils this did not mean a further extension of the days because "16 activities were compressed to be carried out in only 17 days, a schedule in which no task lasted more than eight days". The electoral schedule did not include national observers nor international accompaniment, like the CNE did until 2015. After the signature of the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees on 1 March by the political parties Great Patriotic Pole, Movimiento al Socialismo, Avanzada Progresista and COPEI, the United Nations was requested to head a electoral mission, but the organization refused after receiving a formal invitation and the visit of the principal candidates or their representatives.[37]

Electoral Registry

The Venezuelan Electoral Registry determines the number of people that will vote and in it the voters that must comply with mandatory electoral service in electoral boards are chosen, as well as the regional, municipal and parochial boards for the elections.[37] While in the 2012 presidential elections the CNE took two months to carry out the data update, migration and inscription of new voters journeys in the Electoral Registry, in the 2018 elections the voters only had ten days between 10 and 20 February according to the both the first 22 April and the definitive 20 May electoral schedules, both inside and abroud the country, and the audits to the data were shortened from months to a few days.[97]

It is clear that the CNE has done little to encourage the inscription of these new voters in the registry with institutional campaigns, breaking the current electoral law that which obligates it to deploy inscription and update centers in 'sectors of difficult access and/or of highest population concentration' in all the national territory and in any moment of the year

Venezuelan Electoral Observatory

In 2012 more than 1 300 update of the Electoral Registry points were deployed on a national scale, but in 2018 less than half were opened, 531. The Global Observatory of Communication and Democracy estimated in the report The citizen observation of the electoral registry 2017 that at least 1 769 035 young voters were not inscribed in the Electoral Registry by December 2017. For the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, the "CNE has done little to encourage the inscription of these new voters in the registry with institutional campaigns, breaking the current electoral law that which obligates it to deploy inscription and update centers in 'sectors of difficult access and/or of highest population concentration' in all the national territory and in any moment of the year" according to article 33 of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes [es], and that "what is needed for the citizen to exercise their right to vote is not being done".[97]

On 15 February president Maduro, without being an electoral authority, announced the extension for five days for the inscription in the electoral registry abroad and informed the opening of the Venezuelan consulate in Miami so that Venezuelans living in the city could make changes and participate. The second opening of the registry happened with the elections date change to 20 May and it was opened from 2 to 10 March. In theory, the registry allowed to update information or inscribe new voters for 24 days abroad the country and 19 in Venezuela, but electoral experts denounced obstacles for the inscription of Venezuelans abroad, because besides being insufficient it led to other obstacles that did not allow a massive assistance to embassies or consultares. The electoral registry abroad only increased by 7 028 voters, which does not represent even the 0.5 % of the Venezuelans estimated abroad, and nationally by 910 272 new voters, to locate itself in 20 759 809 voters. Voto Joven complained because the consultes did not work on holidays, only worked on office hours without enough time or information, as well as the requirement to ask for a permanent visa to those who live in the countries where the opening was formalized, even though to vote only the laminated identity card is needed.[37]

The Observatory also denounced that "The ER of Venezuelans abroad has been in a sort of illegal suspension since 2012, a measure violatoryof the current electoral law" yand that according to the last report of the CNE on 30 April 2017, the Venezuelans with the right to vote abroad are only 101 595 voters, "a number much lower of the migrants with the right to vote" in comparison to the estimates of between 2 and 4 million Venezuelans abroad. Even though to vote only the laminated identity card is needed, passports in force, original birth certificates, visas, residence letters and other administrative requirements not covered by law were requested by consulates and embassies, preventing their participation in the elections.[97]

Agreement of Electoral Guarantees

The Agreement of Electoral Guarantees is a scam for the citizen since it covers points already established in the Law and that the CNE has not met

Beatriz Borges, Peace and Justice Center director

The signature of the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees between three of the original five presidential candidates, Maduro, Falcón y Bertucci, was presented as an extension of the norms to the process when considering, among other aspects, the elimination of "red points" controlled by the chavismo, which after the agreement had to be farther away from voting centers, international observers and the return of the voting centers changed during the Constituent Assembly elections and the 2017 regional elections, what was presented as a concession of the Electoral Branch with parties, candidates and the citizenship. The agreement has been questioned and rejected by the NGOs Voto Joven, the Cepaz and the Global Observatory of Communication and Democracy. On 27 March, the Cepaz director Beatriz Borges declared that "the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees is a scam for the citizen since it covers points already established in the Law and that the CNE has not met".

Despite that the presidential candidates Henri Falcón, Javier Bertucci and Luis Alejandro Ratti have denounced the violation of guarantees provded in the agreement, on 2 May the president of the CNE, Tibisay Lucena, contradicted the complaints and assured that the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees was "fulfilled in its entirety".[98]

Campaigning

It should be prevented that an official, such as the president, use the communication platform to take advantage of the other candidates. In this election there are several who have propaganda on television, but there is no CNE that limits the number of times that is transmitted daily neither the minutes nor the content

Francisco Castro, national coordinator of Súmate

The presidential and legislative councils campaign started on 22 April and ends on 17 May at midnight, according to the schedule approved by the CNE. However, candidates postulated for the presidency or the reelection have carried out activities with the electorate and have exposed proposals that will be executed in case of being elected, violating Article 75 of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes [es]. Francisco Castro, national coordinator of Súmate, pointed out that the CNE provided only 26 days for the national campaign, explaining that the term "does not allow candidates to have enough time to promote their ideas and call for participation, so they are forced to anticipate their campaign. By tradition, the process lasts more than 60 days", reminding that the CNE began the process only 80 days prior to the election of more than 500 positions, reducing the time of the activities. Equally, he indicated that the CNE does not regulate pre-campaign activities and stated that as long as there is not an explicit call to vote, then the candidate cannot be sanctioned. Castro explained that the pattern carried out since the government of Hugo Chávez is repeated in which the electoral campaigns made by public officials and governors are used to inaugurate works and make promises. He continued by saying that it should be prevented that "an official, such as the president, uses the communication platform to take advantage of the other candidates", saying that during the elections there have been several who have used propaganda on television, but that the CNE does not limit the number of minutes, the content or the number of times that it is transmitted daily.[99]

Ignacio Ávalos, director of the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, and political scientist Luis Salamanca agreed that so far that until now a electoral environment or government project does not exist, but rather "a struggle to achieve power", stressing that electoral competition was suppressed and that a electoral campaign was designed for the United Socialist Party of Venezuela convenience. Salamanca asserted that "Maduro distributes benefits to obtain votes and Falcón offers benefits in the future in exchange for votes. None has enough weigh to mobilize the country electorally".[99]

In a visit to Delta Amacuro, president and reelection candidate Maduro gave away eight motor boats, nine ambulances and reopened the “Antonio Díaz“ Tucupita Airport, among other announcements, violating Article 223 of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes that forbids the use of state resources to campaign, as well as one of the prerogatives in the Agreement of Electoral Guarantees signed by the presidential candidates to the CNE.[100][101][102] On 8 May Maduro again violated the electoral law during an electoral act in the Amazonas state by promising to give fuel to the entity in exchange of votes.[103][104][105][106]

Reactions

Domestic

The Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) opposition coalition confirmed on 21 February 2018 that it would not participate in the elections since they "do not comply with democratic conditions or guarantees".[107] Movimiento Estudiantil rejected the elections through a public statement for being announced "outside of the lapses established by our Carta Magna" and for being "requested by an unconstitutional, incompetent body erected on the blood of hundreds of Venezuelans", considering that the elections do not for Venezuelans to choose, "but perpetuate the hell and the misery lived today", explaining that it would not participate in the process and exhorting the political leaders to not attend to the ballot boxes to not endorse the process.[108][109] Henri Falcon, former Lara State Governor and opposition presidential candidate, lambasted the Democratic Unity Roundtable for their boycott of the elections and stated: "You will disappear as politicians and as parties for not understanding the dynamics of a country that demands solutions and not conflict," and also stated, "four parties (those participating in the elections) believe in national unity."[110]

The NGO Foro Penal decided not to endorse the announcement of the presidential elections based on the fact that the Constituent Assembly does not have constitutional faculties to summon an election because it is only empowered to draft a new constitution, assuring that it would be committing an usurpation of functions when calling to elections and that the announcement is violating the right of Venezuelans to choose in valid and fair conditions attached to the constitution.[111]

International

Supranational bodies

High Commissioner Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein of the United Nations Human Rights Council stated that the elections "does not in any way fulfill minimal conditions for free and credible elections".[9] On 23 March 2018 a United Nations official informed that the organization would not offer electoral assistance in the elections, without explaining the motives. The spokesperson Farhan Haq informed that a letter was sent to Venezuelan authorities regarding the request of electoral experts, but did not explain the content.[112]

Prior to the elections, the Lima Group, with its participating nations of Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Saint Lucia, stated that they would not recognize the results of the presidential elections due to the perceived lack of transparency.[113]

The Organization of American States (OAS) approved with 19 votes on 23 February 2018, in an extraordinary session supported by its Secretary General Luis Almagro, a resolution that asks the Venezuelan government to reconsider the announcement of the presidential elections and to present a new electoral schedule to make possible the performance of elections with all the guarantees needed. The countries that supported the resolution were Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Lucia the United States and Uruguay.[114][115]

On 8 February, the European Parliament approved a resolution with 480 votes in favor, 51 against and 70 abstentions demanding the applications of sanctions against President Nicolás Maduro, Vice President Tareck el Aissami and other officials, considering them "responsible for the aggravation of the crisis.[116][117] The European Union, through the European Parliament, also ruled that it would not recognize the 20 May elections and called the electoral process "fraudulent".[118] Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, in a joint declaration in the name of 28 European countries, said "We deeply regret that elections were summoned without a broad agreement of its schedule nor of the conditions for a inclusive and credible electoral process".[119] On 3 May 2018, the European Parliament called for the immediate suspension of the 20 May election until "free and fair elections were held on a schedule agreed upon with the participation of all relevant actors and political parties".[120]

Governments

The governments of Argentina,[121] Canada,[122] Colombia[113] and France[123] directly criticized the disqualification of the MUD opposition coalition and the lack of an advanced notice to the election date, calling such actions by the Venezuelan government antidemocratic.[124] Argentina's president Mauricio Macri declared that "Maduro says he will carry out presidential elections making the world believe they're democratic but he does not allow the opposition to participate … Argentina will not recognize those results”.[125] The Canadian government released a statement declaring that “Canada rejects the regime's unilateral decision to have presidential elections in Venezuela in the year's first trimester. The decision of the Supreme Tribunal makes it impossible to have democratic, transparent and credible elections”.[126] The Canadian embassy assured that the postponement of the elections would not change the situation, insisting that a democracy and free elections cannot exist in the context where there are political prisoners, free press limitations and house arrest for opposition leaders.[127] Chilean president Sebastián Piñera said “no country that respects democracy should recognize these elections.” The Chilean foreign minister Heraldo Muñoz assured that it was a "enourmous step back" the decision in late 2017 that "the parties that did not participate in the previous municipal elections could not participate in the presidential elections”.[128] Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos reiterated that Colombia would not recognize the results in what he defined as an "unjust" election.[129] Costa Rica backed the OAS pronouncement and stressed "Cotsta Rica joins the call for the Venezuelan government to implement the necessary measures to prevent the aggravationsof the humanitarian eituation, including the acceptance of the assistance offered by the international community"[130]

Panama's vicepresident Isabel Saint Malo indicated that there are no minimal conditions in the country to have elections in a democratic scope.[131] Paraguay's foreign minister Eladio Loizaga stated that the presidential elections in Venezuela are not a "synonym of democracy" as long there are "disqualified opposition parties and political prisoners"[132] With the support of the Lima Group, the Peruvian foreign minister Cayetana Aljovín informed that the presence of President Maduro in the 8th Summit of the Americas "would not be welcome in said encounter", quoting the 2001 Quebec Declaration, which states that "the rupture of the democracy constitutes an insuperable obstacle for the participation of a State in the Summit of the Americas".[133] Uruguay's foreign minister Rodolfo Nin Novoa reflected saying "Would Uruguay go to elections with jailed political leaders? Would it go with a judicial branch that responds to the orders of the executive branch with proscribed parties? I think not, and what we don't want for ourselves we can't wish it for others".[134] Spain's foreign minister Alfonso Dastis expressed that “if the opposition's passive suffrage rights are restricted, it does not seem that clean, fair and even elections can be carried out”.[135] The United States Deparment of State pointed out in a statement that the presidential elections "do not have the agreement of all the political parties and limit the capacity of the persons to participate in the elections".[136]

Cuba supported Venezuela in the Summit of the Americas. The Cuban foreign minister, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla claimed that efforts to not recognise the upcoming elections were “completely undemocratic”.[17][137] Russia has pledged support for the elections. María Zajárova, a spokesperson for Russia's foreign ministry, stated that "the upcoming elections are a great opportunity to achieve civil reconciliation. To lose or ignore them in a premeditated way is shortsighted, and of course, counterproductive." Russia's Vice Foreign Minister Sergey Riabkov voiced support for the elections as well: "We must unite to defend the clean and democratic electoral processes, like the ones in Venezuela. We can't tolerate the so-called 'Color Revolutions.' The people have the right to choose their governors in a free and democratic way, without foreign interference or violence."[18][138] The Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, Gaston Browne has also voiced support for the elections.[139]

Bolivia's President Evo Morales wrote in a tweet, "We salute brother president Maduro on his candidacy for a democratic and constitutional reelection in Venezuela. We are certain that with truth and the support of the Venezuelan people, brother Maduro has a certain victory over Trump’s interventionism and his agents Almagro and Tuto Quiroga.”[140] The First Lady and Vice President of Nicaragua, Rosario Murillo, also voiced her government's support for the elections, and said, "The government of Nicaragua ratifies its invariable, principled position on respect for the sovereignty and independence of States and peoples." She also reiterated Nicaragua's "support for Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro and the Bolivarian people in the defense of its institutions, its legislation and its own, sovereign and independent decisions."[19]

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