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Electricity sector in Turkey

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Electricity sector of Turkey
Data
Installed capacity (2021)100 GW[1]
Production (2020)305 gross generation [2] and 292 terawatt-hours consumption [3]
Share of fossil energy56% generation,[4] 49% capacity [3]
Share of renewable energy43% generation, 53% capacity [5]
GHG emissions from electricity generation (2019)138 Mt CO2eq (power stations including heat sold by power stations)
Average electricity use (2019)256 TWh , 3.1 MWh per capita [6]
Distribution losses (2019)11.8% (including transmission losses) [7]
Consumption by sector
(% of total)
Residential21% (2018)
Industrial117 TWh [6] (2019)
Agriculture7 TWh [6] (2019)
Commercial and public sector28% (2018)
Traction1 TWh [6] (2019)
Services
Sector unbundlingPartial
Share of private sector in transmission0
Share of private sector in distributionSee text
Competitive supply to large usersYes
Competitive supply to residential usersOnly over 1400 kWh per year
Institutions
No. of service providersEÜAŞ, private companies
Responsibility for transmissionTurkish Electricity Transmission Corporation
Responsibility for regulationEnergy Market Regulatory Authority
Responsibility for policy-settingMinistry of Energy and Natural Resources

Each year, about 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity is used in Turkey—a fifth of the energy used and about 3 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person per day. The carbon intensity of generation during the 2010s was about 400 grams of CO2 per kWh (gCO2/kWh), slightly less than the global average. As there is 100 GW capacity, far more could be generated, but only a tiny proportion is exported; consumption is forecast to increase, and there are plans to increase exports during the 2020s.

As the electricity sector in the country burns a lot of Turkish lignite and local as well as imported hard coal, the largest source of the country's greenhouse-gas emissions is the country's coal-fired power stations, many of which are subsidized. In the 2010s imports of gas, mostly for its power stations, was one of the main import costs for the economy. Now solar and wind power are the cheapest generating technologies,[8] and are being increased and balanced by the country's existing hydropower. Renewables generate a third of the country's electricity and academics have suggested that the target of 32% from renewables by 2030 should be increased to at least 50%. Production and use of all types of electric vehicles, including the national car, is expected to increase demand during the 2020s.

History

See also: Railway electrification in Turkey
SantralIstanbul control room
Historic transformer in Bursa

The first power station in the Ottoman Empire was a small hydroelectric power station built in 1902 outside Tarsus, Anatolia.[9] Generating power in Istanbul for tramlines, lighting and the telephone network from 1914, Silahtarağa Power Station (now a museum that is part of SantralIstanbul) was the first large power station.[10][9] By the start of the Turkish Republic in 1923, one in twenty of the population was supplied with electricity.[10]

The electricity sector was nationalized in the late 1930s and early 1940s, and by the end of nationalization, almost a quarter of the population was supplied with electricity.[11] The Turkish Electricity Authority was created in 1970 and consolidated almost all of the sector.[11] By the end of the 20th century, almost all the population was supplied with electricity.[12]

Privatization of the electricity sector started in 1984[11] and began "in earnest" in 2004[13] after the Electricity Market Law was passed in 2001.[14] In 2015 there was a one day national blackout and an independent energy exchange was created.[14] Also in the 2010s, the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ) joined the European Network of Transmission System Operators as an observer,[15] the Turkish grid was permanently synchronised with the European grid, and energy efficiency and generation goals were set for 2023, the centenary of the establishment of modern Turkey.[16]

Policy

See also: Energy in Turkey § Policy and regulation

As of 2020 the 2 main policy objectives are to meet forecast increased demand and to reduce import costs.[17] To meet both these objectives policy includes increasing generation from solar, wind and domestic coal;[18] and adding nuclear. As of 2021 all these generation methods are subsidized - for example EÜAŞ will purchase the forthcoming nuclear power at an agreed price.[19] By 2021 enough domestic gas had been found offshore to cover future residential use: it is not yet known how much domestic gas will be available for power generation and the government is funding more exploration.[20] Storage and transmission improvements are also supported - for example increasing the amount of pumped hydro is policy.[21]

Consumption

Nostalgic tramway in Istanbul

Each year, approximately 300 TWh of electricity is used in Turkey; this accounts for almost a fifth of the total primary energy consumption[22] and a little under 3 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person per day,[23] which is half as much again as the global average.[24] 291 TWh was consumed in 2020.[3] Peak demand is in summer due to air conditioning.[25] Demand for 2021 peaked at 53 gigawatt electrical (GHe) in early August and there were power outages due to transmission problems.[26] Average gross consumption per person in 2019 was 3,700 kWh, much below the 10,000 for other OECD countries in Europe.[27] In 2019, industry consumed 117 TWh, buildings 119, agriculture 7 and transport 1.[6]

In the five years from 2019, Turkey plans to invest US$11 billion in energy efficiency.[28] A target of replacing 80% of its current electricity meters with smart meters by 2035 has also been set.[29]

Electricity's share of energy is expected to increase, perhaps from 22% in 2020 to 28% in 2040, partly due to electrification of road transport.[30] Vulnerable families are supported with direct payments for their electricity consumption up to 0.15 MWh/month.[31]

The architecture of Turkey is such that many city dwellers live in apartment blocks without off-street parking: Environment Ministry regulations issued in 2018 require at least one charger per 50 new parking spaces in shopping malls and public parking lots.[32] Although the share of electricity in total energy consumption will replace some oil,[33] production by electric-vehicle companies, such as electric-bus manufacturing[34] and TOGG cars, may not be enough to avoid the risk of high oil import bills in the mid-2020s.[35]

In 2021, there is a lot of excess generation capacity;[36] but from 2017 through 2019 less than 1% was exported.[37] Consumption is forecast to increase,[38] and there are plans to increase exports during the 2020s.[39] Although Turkish electricity is likely to be cheaper than that in the EU the impact of the CBAM is unclear as of 2021 and more linking transmission is needed, becoming a full member of ENTSO-E would help exports.[40]

Production and use some types of electric vehicles, such the TOGG car, may increase demand during the 2020s, and the Shura Energy Transition Center, a think tank, has made many recommendations about electric vehicles.[41] Getting old diesel trucks off the road would have health benefits, but this would require new pollution control legislation,[42] and as of 2021 the only commercial electric vehicles planned for mass production are vans.[43]

Demand forecasts

Demand forecasting is important: constructing too much electricity generation capacity can be expensive, both for the government because of energy subsidies and for the private sector because of debt interest.[44] Conversely, constructing too little risks delaying the health benefits of electrification, mainly cleaner air due to fossil fuel phase-out.[45]

In October 2018, the government forecast an electricity demand of 317 TWh for 2019.[46] 2018 demand was 303 TWh (from an installed capacity of 89GW),[47] an increase of less than 1% compared 2017.[48] Some official demand forecasts have been overestimates[23][49][50] perhaps due to economic growth being lower than predicted.[51][52]

One 2018 academic forecast was that, by 2021, demand would be between 322 and 345 TWh.[53] As of April 2019, the Energy Ministry was predicting demand of 357 TWh by 2023.[54] The ministry forecast for 2030 demand was 500 TWh as of 2019;[55] another forecast predicts between 440 and 550 TWh.[56] As of 2019, however, there is about one-third[57] surplus generating capacity.[58] Firm capacity was almost 400 TWh in 2019,[59] with actual generation being 76% of firm capacity.[60] This overcapacity continued into the early 2020s.[52]

Generation

Sources of electricity
Further information: List of power stations in Turkey and Renewable energy in Turkey

Of the total 305 TWh of electricity generated in 2020, coal's share was 35%; hydropower 26%; natural gas 23%; and wind, solar and geothermal 15%.[61] Installed capacity is expected to reach 100 GW by the end of 2021.[62] The first virtual power plant was created in 2017 with wind, solar and hydro; geothermal was added in 2020.[63] The carbon intensity of generation during the 2010s was slightly over 400 gCO2/kWh,[64] around the global average.[65] A group of academics has suggested that the target of 32% from renewables by 2030 should be increased to at least 50%.[66]

Coal

Main articles: List of active coal-fired power stations in Turkey and Coal power in Turkey

Coal's share of generation increased from 2015 to 2020, to over the world average.[67] Turkey's coal is almost all low calorie lignite, and it is difficult to burn low-calorie coal economically in very small (industrial) power plants.[68] For comparison Germany is closing lignite-fired plants under 150 MW.[69] Drought in Turkey is frequent, but fossil fuel power stations use significant amounts of water.[70]

As of 2020, coal power is a major cause of air pollution in Turkey: it was estimated to cause over 2,000 early deaths in 2019.[23] In 2020, the Energy Ministry said they plan to increase the installed capacity of coal power plants from 11 GW to 20 GW.[71] Turkey has not ratified the Gothenburg Protocol on air pollution.[72]

Gas

Further information: List of power stations in Turkey § Natural Gas, and Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey § Gas-fired stations

State-owned gas-fired power plants are less efficient than private sector ones but can out compete them because the state guarantees a price for their electricity.[73] In 2020 29% of gas was consumed by power plants.[74] Gas power plants are used more when drought reduces hydropower;[75] as in 2014, 2020 and 2021.[76]

Geothermal

Main article: Geothermal power in Turkey

Although there is almost 2 GW of geothermal and sites for much more, carbon dioxide emissions can be high especially for new plants.

Hydro

Main article: Hydroelectricity in Turkey

Due to changes in rainfall, hydroelectricity in Turkey varies considerably from year to year,[a] and according to S&P Global Platts when there is a drought during the peak electricity demand month of August the aim of the State Hydraulic Works to conserve water for irrigation can conflict with TEİAŞ aiming to generate electricity.[78] Despite increasing droughts hydropower is predicted to remain important for load balancing.[79] Converting existing dams to pumped storage has been suggested as more feasible than new pumped storage.[80]

Wind

Main article: Wind power in Turkey

The state-owned Electricity Generation Company (EÜAŞ) has about 20% of the market,[81] and there are many private companies,[82] with wind capacity of 10 GW in 2021[1] and projected for 16 GW by 2027.[83]

Solar

Main article: Solar power in Turkey

Analyst Ramez Naam forecast in 2020 that, for medium-cost locations (Turkey is medium cost as sunshine is medium between Europe and the Middle East), new solar will be cheaper than the currently operating fossil-fuel plants by 2030.[84]

Greenway Solar power tower in Mersin

In 2020, the Energy Minister stated that 74 tenders (by descending clock auction[85]) would be held in the coming months for solar energy in Turkey in the 10–20 MW range.[86] Peak daily generation in 2020 was over 1 TWh in September.[3] Solar capacity is projected for 13 GW by 2027.[83]

Nuclear

Main article: Nuclear energy in Turkey

Nuclear power, both proposed and under construction, is targeted for 10% of generation,[83] but has been criticised as very expensive to taxpayers.[36]

Trade

Wholesale electricity markets are both physical and financial[87]: 122  and are run by Energy Exchange Istanbul (Turkish acronym EPİAŞ), which also runs the natural gas market, and regulated by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority(tr:Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu).[88] Because gas-fired power plants are often the price setters, wholesale electricity prices are strongly influenced by wholesale natural gas prices, which are themselves influenced by the USD exchange rate.[87]: 91  Electricity markets include day ahead, ancillary services, balancing, intraday, and futures trading.[89][90] The state Electricity Generation Company is a key player in the market along with private wholesalers (such as Enerjisa, Cengiz, Eren, Limak and Çelikler[87]: 52 ) and an over the counter market.[87]: 9  In 2019, about 150 TWh[b] was traded on the day ahead spot market.[91] In 2020 at an average rate of 279 lira ($49) for each MWh.[92] Market pricing is not completely transparent, cost reflective and non-discriminatory.[93] In 2020, Turkey exported 2.48 billion TWh and imported 1.89 TWh.[3] International trade with some countries is hampered by geopolitical difficulties such as the Cyprus dispute; for example, Turkey will be bypassed by the EuroAsia Interconnector.[94] Some power barges supplying other countries burn heavy fuel oil but plan to convert to LNG.[95] For exports to the EU the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will be phased in from 2023 to 2026.[96]

Transmission

The transmission system operator is the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ),[97] which is state-owned as at 2020, but is planned to be privatized.[98] Transmission is regulated by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA).[99]The first long-distance transmission line was from Zonguldak to Istanbul in 1952,[100] and as of 2020 there are 71 thousand km.[98] The grid runs at 400 kV and 154 kV,[101] and there are over 700 transmission grid substations.[102]

As of 2020, reducing grid losses and outages is important as is improving grid quality.[103] Power consumption is often distant from generation: grid improvements are needed to prevent bottlenecks and increase flexibility.[104] There are interconnectors with all of Turkey's neighbours by land, except Armenia (although the connections to Azerbaijan's grid[105][106] and Iraq's grid[107] are incomplete as of 2021).[108] As of 2020, links with the EU allow 500 MW export and 650 MW import, whereas trade with other countries is possible but difficult to automate as they do not meet ENTSO-E synchronisation requirements.[37]

Distribution

Electric power distribution is the responsibility of 21 regional licensed private company monopolies, and many industrial areas.[109][110] However, ownership of the distribution infrastructure has been retained by state owned Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAŞ).[19] An example of a regional distribution company is YEDAŞ (D = dağıtım = distribution).[111] According to the Chamber of Electrical Engineers, the regional monopolies were making excess profits in 2020.[112][113]

Retailing

The 2013 Electricity Market Law says that distribution companies cannot retail, most customers buy from retail "arms" of their local distribution companies.[19] Households that consumed over 1400 kWh in 2020 and all non-household customers can switch suppliers.[114] Retail price increases have often been due to depreciation of the lira.[87]: 143  European wiring color codes are used.[115] Schuko plugs (plug type C with 2 round pins, and type F with 2 round pins and 2 earth clips[116]) and sockets are the standard, at 230 V[117] and 50 Hz.[118] For public charging of electric vehicles the European standard Combined Charging System is used but there are also some CHAdeMO chargers.[119] As of 2021, there are no Tesla superchargers.[120]

An example of a regional retail company is YEPAŞ (P = perakende = retail).[121]

Resilience

Earthquakes in Turkey are common and sometimes cut transmission lines and destroy substations.[122] After purchasing a property in an urban area earthquake insurance is compulsory before the electricity and other utilities are connected.[123] Because many of the trapped people rescued from rubble are located via their phones household earthquake preparedness includes keeping phones well charged and keeping plenty of batteries in the house.[124]

In case of emergencies, distribution grids can be remotely controlled by SCADA.[125] The installation of more local solar power with batteries and microgrids in vulnerable places might help vital buildings such as hospitals retain power after a natural disaster such as earthquake or flood. Academics suggest that cost–benefit analysis of such emergency power systems should take into account any benefits of resilience and also the cost of installing an islandable system.[126][127]

The nationwide blackout in 2015 did not greatly affect Van Province as it was supplied from Iran,[128] the EU interconnection helped restore power,[129] and more integration with other countries would increase resilience.[130]

Greenhouse-gas emissions

Turkey's coal-fired power stations (many of which are subsidized) are the largest source of greenhouse-gas emissions by Turkey.[131] Production of public heat and electricity emitted 138 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2019,[c] mainly through coal burning.[d] Almost all coal burnt in power stations is local lignite or imported hard coal. Coal analysis of Turkish lignite compared to other lignites shows that it is high in ash and moisture, low in energy value and high in emission intensity (that is Turkish lignite emits more CO2 than other countries' lignites per unit of energy when burnt).[135] Although imported hard coal has a lower emission intensity when burnt, as it is transported much further, its life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions are similar to lignite.[136]: 177 

In 2020, emission intensity was 441gm of CO2/kWh, around the average for G20 countries.[137] Investment in wind and solar is hampered by subsidies for coal.[138]: 10  A trial of reinjecting geothermal gas back into the ground is planned for 2021.[139]

Policy and regulation

See also: Energy in Turkey § Policy

The key laws are the Electricity Market Law (law 6446) and law 5346 on renewable generation.[87]: 12  The three main objectives are localisation, a predictable market and a security of supply.[22] The government aims for half of electricity to be from renewable energy by 2023,[140] with capacity targets of 32 GW for hydropower; 12 GW for wind; 10 GW for solar; and 3 GW for biomass and geothermal combined.[22] The authors of a report from Shura Energy Transition Center at Sabancı University have suggested that longer-term plans and targets would also be useful, together with a policy on distributed generation;[141] market design to incentivize grid flexibility was also suggested.[141] The objectives are developing local manufacturing capacity such as wind turbines,[142] technology transfer and creating a competitive domestic market for low-cost renewable energy.[143] For wind and solar tenders, there is a high domestic content requirement, and imported solar modules are taxed. A solar PV factory was opened in 2020.[144] Developing regulation to specify the role of aggregators in providing flexibility and including energy storage systems and demand side management within ancillary services has been suggested.[145] Coal is heavily subsidized in Turkey.

Mosque in Old Halfeti partially submerged by the Birecik Dam on the River Euphrates

Economics and finance

See also: Coal in Turkey § Subsidies

As elsewhere, new renewables are auctioned.[146] As of 2018, if all currently economic renewable projects were developed, the added electricity generation would be sufficient to reduce Turkey's natural gas imports by 20%,[147][148] and every GW of solar power installed would save over $100 million on the gas bill.[149] Total import dependency in the power sector was over 50% in 2019.[23] In 2019 the value-adjusted levelized cost of energy (VALCOE is the cost including power system value but before including environmental externalities) of onshore wind was slightly less than solar PV,[150] but solar PV is expected to become the most cost-competitive power generation technology by the late 2020s.[151]

The wholesale market is operated by Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST);[152] wholesale prices are controlled by EUAŞ, the state electricity generation company.[153] In January 2019, EDPK published estimates of power plant financing.[154]

There are no excise duties,[155] and the complicated system[156] of prices to end consumers is regulated by the government.[157] In 2020, residential consumers paid about 75 lira (c. 13 USD in 2019) per 100 kWh, of which 39 lira (c. $7 in 2019) went to generating companies and 21 lira (c. $4 in 2019) to distribution companies; the rest was tax.[112] A green tariff called YEK-G[5] to allow consumers to buy only sustainable electricity is planned for June 2021.[158]

As of 2019, about 15% of power was generated by the public sector.[57] During the 2010s, power companies borrowed heavily in dollars, but economic growth was overestimated and they overbuilt generating capacity.[57] This resulted in bank debts of $34 billion by September 2019 and revenues declining in dollar terms due to the fall in the lira; furthermore, 7% of debts were non-performing.[140][159][57] In the early 2020s, Turkish electricity companies still owe[160] much foreign currency,[161] and debt is being restructured[162] and plants are changing ownership.[163][164] In early 2021 BOTAŞ was charging power companies 1414 TL/000m3 (about US$18/ MWh) for gas, leaving them at a disadvantage to coal-fired power stations.[165]

About half the electricity used in 2019 was generated from local resources.[166] Because TEIAŞ is not unbundled, it cannot become a full member of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), but the grids are synchronised, there is technical co-operation, and as of 2020, it remains an observer member.[167] The grid is linked across most land borders, and about 1% of electricity is imported or exported.[168] More export to the electricity sector in Iraq is planned for the 2020s,[39] and technical studies have been done on increasing connections with the European grid.[169] It has, for example, been predicted that more trade would benefit electricity in Bulgaria by stabilizing its price.[170] There are restrictions on foreign ownership.[171]

The main growth in solar and wind during the 2020s is predicted to be in Renewable Energy Resource Areas(YEKA): these use auctions and include a requirement to manufacture mostly in Turkey.[172] Build Own Operate is being used to construct Akkuyu nuclear plant to ensure that responsibility for cost overruns is with Rosatom.[172] Power purchase agreements are offered by the government both for nuclear and local coal.[173]

Feed-in-tariffs

As of 2021 feed-in-tariffs in lira per MWh are: wind and solar 320, hydro 400, geothermal 540, and various rates for different types of biomass: for all these there is also a bonus of 80 per MWh if local components are used.[174] Tariffs will apply for 10 years and the local bonus for 5 years.[174] Rates are determined by the presidency,[175] and the scheme replaced the previous USD-denominated feed-in-tariffs for renewable energy.[176]

Smart grid vision

There are plans for a smart grid.[177] According to academics at the Shura Energy Center, increasing Turkey's proportion of electric cars in use to 10% by 2030 would smooth distribution, amongst many other benefits.[178]

According to a 2018 study by Sabancı University, 20% of Turkey's electricity could be generated from wind and solar by 2026 with no extra transmission costs, and 30% with a minor increase in grid investment.[179] Mobile 10 MW batteries may be useful in the future for reducing temporary transmission congestion between regions, or larger ones for frequency regulation.[180] With the increase in electricity generated by solar panels, energy storage may become more important. A pumped hydropower plant is planned to be completed by 2022.[181] Converting existing dams to pumped storage has been suggested as more feasible than new pumped storage.[80] Testing in Ankara suggested a payback time between eighteen months and three years for adding ice thermal storage to hypermarket cooling systems.[182]

Future

Driverless vehicle concept in Istanbul

Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is planned to start generation in 2023, and is expected to last for at least 60 years.[183] In April 2019, Shanghai Electric Power (a subsidiary of China's State Power Investment Corporation) signed a Belt and Road Initiative deal to build the Emba Hunutlu coal-fired power station power station.[184] The project finance includes a 15-year $1.38‑billion loan from the China Development Bank, the Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.[184] However, the project is being opposed by several environmental organizations.[185] As of 2020, there is an oversupply of generating capacity, and the drop in demand may create financial problems for power plant operators.[186] More efficient lighting and industrial motors together with policy changes supporting efficiency could limit demand growth.[187] However the share of electricity in industrial energy use is expected to increase at the expense of the fossil fuel share as Turkey moves to higher tech products (cite teo p 340) - perhaps even overtaking gas to become the largest share at 30% - as industrial coal burning declines and oil remains static. (cite teo p 343) Shura Energy Center suggested in 2020 that future pricing should be more competitive and better reflect costs, with low-income families being continued to be supported with direct payments.[30] The Turkish Solar İndustry Association suggests that building solar plants next to hydropower would help to stabilize output in times of drought.[188]

Notes

  1. ^ For example, drought in 2020 caused a generation drop of over 10% compared to the previous year.[77]
  2. ^ This is around half of the 300 TWh of electricity generated in 2019.
  3. ^ [132]: table 1s1 cell B10 
  4. ^ The 2019 carbon content (t/TJ), oxidation factor and CO2 emission intensity (t/TJ NCV), respectively, of the main fossil fuels burnt in Turkish power stations were:[133]: 49 & 50, table 3.5, 3.6, 3.7  These figures are unremarkable except for the extremely low-quality lignite, which is explained in detail in Coal in Turkey. The CO2 emission intensity (or emission factor) shown above is the mass of CO2 emitted for each unit of heat produced by burning a fuel. In contrast, the grid emission intensity is the mass of CO2e produced per unit of electricity supplied to the electrical grid. Because thermal power stations generally convert less than half of the heat energy into electrical energy,[134] their numbers for grid emission intensity are much greater than those shown above.

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Sources

  • Difiglio, Prof. Carmine; Güray, Bora Şekip; Merdan, Ersin (November 2020). Turkey Energy Outlook. iicec.sabanciuniv.edu (Report). Sabanci University Istanbul International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC). ISBN 978-605-70031-9-5.

Further reading

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