Opinion polling for the next Polish parliamentary election

In the run up to the next Polish parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 15 October 2023, to the day of the next election.

To be represented in parliament electoral committees which are registered as political parties must reach an electoral threshold of 5% and those registered as coalitions must reach 8%.^[1]

Pollster bias

The following table displays the pollsters which have alleged funding and links to the political parties:


Pollster	Alleged bias	Source
Research Partner	The company has strong ties to the Law and Justice party, and has consistently overestimated its support in past elections above the standard deviation of polling.	^[2]^[3]
CBOS	The institute is under the supervision of the Prime Minister of Poland, and is partially funded from the state budget. As such, it has been accused of greatly underestimating parties belonging to the opposition at any given moment for about the past 20 years.	^[4]^[5]

Graphical summary

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

2024

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	United Right	Civic Coalition	Third Way		The Left	Confederation	There is One Poland	Nonpartisan Local Government Activists	Others	Don't know	Lead
			United Right	Civic Coalition	Polish Coalition	Poland 2050	The Left	Confederation	There is One Poland	Nonpartisan Local Government Activists

United Surveys / WP.pl	5–8 Jul	1,000	27.2	31.2	9.0		7.7	11.0			0.0	13.9	4
CBOS	1–3 Jul	1,000	28	31	10		8	14			0	10	3
CBOS	24–27 Jun	1,000	30	32	11		9	11			1	6	2
United Surveys / WP.pl	21–23 Jun	1,000	33.7	34.4	10.8		6.2	11.9			0.5	2.5	0.7
IBRiS / "Rz"	21–22 Jun	1,067	32.7	34.0	9.2		6.3	10.8			0.4	6.6	1.3
IBRiS / Onet	18–19 Jun	1,100	32.1	33.8	8.7		6.9	9.0			0.3	9.2	1.7
Opinia24	10–11 Jun	1,001	28.8	33.2	7.6		8.1	11.5	0.6	3.5	0.7	6.2	4.4
European Parliament election	9 Jun	11,761,994	36.16	37.06	6.91		6.30	12.08		0.93	0.56		0.90
IBRiS	3 Jun	1,067	31.3	33.1	11.6		8.2	9.0			0.2	6.6	1.8
Opinia24	27–28 May	1,001	29.8	29.7	11.2		8.3	11.6	1.0	3.6	0.5	4.3	0.1
IBRiS / "Rz"	23–24 May	1,068	30.3	31.8	12.7		8.9	7.0			0	9.3	1.5
CBOS	20–23 May	1,000	30	30	9		9	9			1	13	Tie
Pollster / "SE.pl"	19 May	1,031	32.49	32.15	10.87		9.33	9.46		3.16	2.54		0.34
Opinia24	13–14 May	1,000	30.1	32.5	13.3		7.0	12.1			1.7	3.3	2.4
Research Partner	10–13 May	1,051	31.5	29.7	11.4		9.1	9.1		1.5	0.5	7.2	1.8
United Surveys / WP.pl	10–12 May	1,000	33.3	32.0	11.6		9.0	9.8			0.1	4.2	1.3
CBOS	22–26 Apr	1,000	26	28	11		7	14			2	12	2
United Surveys / WP.pl	19–21 Apr	1,000	32.1	32.6	12.1		8.6	7.6				7.0	0.5
IBRiS / "Rz"	19–20 Apr	1,071	31.4	28.9	13.5		8.8	8.2			3.7	5.7	2.5
Pollster / "SE.pl"	18–19 Apr	1,074	32.77	32.31	11.17		9.23	9.64	1.75	2.89	0.24		0.4
CBOS	8–11 Apr	1,000	23	35	10		5	14			2	11	12
Opinia24	8–9 Apr	1,000	26.4	33.8	11.8		6.6	8.5	2.0	4.5	0.6	5.8	7.4
Local elections	7 Apr	14,417,065	34.27	30.59	14.25		6.32	7.23		3.01	4.33		3.68
OGB	3–5 Apr	1,000	34.75	33.34	13.02		4.47	10.38	1.76	2.28			1.41
IBRiS / Onet	4 Apr	1,068	29.0	30.5	11.8		9.5	8.4			1.9	8.9	1.5
Opinia24	2-3 Apr	–	29.1	36.0	14.7		8.3	10.4			1.5		6.9
IBRiS / "Rz"	22–23 Mar	1,067	30.0	31.9	10.7		9.5	8.6				9.3	1.9
CBOS	18–22 Mar	1,000	24	29	9		8	13			1	17	5
Pollster / "SE.pl"	16–17 Mar	1,072	32.02	30.81	13.57		9.19	9.88	1.34	2.79	0.40		1.21
Research Partner	8–11 Mar	1,088	29.1	30.2	9.0		8.5	8.0			2.4	12.8	1.1
Opinia24	6–7 Mar	1,000	24.6	32.8	14.2		9.3	10.1	1.3	2.3	0.7	4.7	8.2
CBOS	4–7 Mar	1,000	23	29	12		9	11			2	13	6
CBM Indicator / DoRzeczy.pl	1–6 Mar	1,001	27	32	15		10	10			6^[a]		5
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM	22–26 Feb	1,000	30	29	13		6	12	2	3	1	4	1
United Surveys / WP.pl	23–25 Feb	1,000	28.2	32.6	15.2		8.5	9.1			1.1	5.3	4.4
IBRiS / "Rz"	23–24 Feb	1,071	30.1	32.6	14.7		8.7	7.6				6.3	2.5
CBOS	19–22 Feb	1,000	22	29	15		7	11			2	14	7
Pollster / TVP	15–16 Feb	1,034	30.85	31.17	17.07		8.20	8.06	2.23	1.74	0.68		0.32
IBSP / Stan Polityki	12–15 Feb	1,000	32.98	34.20	15.25		4.89	9.36	0.79	2.53			1.22
CBOS	12–15 Feb	1,000	24	29	11		8	11			2	15	5
Research Partner	9–12 Feb	1,081	30.1	29.8	13.6		9.3	6.8		1.6	1.1	7.7	0.3
Pollster / "SE.pl"	11 Feb	1,060	30.31	32.32	14.78		9.01	8.77	1.79	1.94	1.08		2.01
United Surveys / WP.pl	10–11 Feb	1,000	29.0	31.7	15.3		10.2	8.0			0.0	5.8	2.7
Opinia24	6–7 Feb	1,001	24.0	31.0	16.8		9.1	8.7	2.2	1.5	1.1	5.7	7.0
	31 Jan	President Andrzej Duda sends budget to the Constitutional Tribunal
United Surveys / WP.pl	26–28 Jan	1,000	28.3	28.2	18.9		9.6	7.6			1.0	6.4	0.1
CBOS	22–26 Jan	1,000	24	29	14		9	11			5	9	5
Research Partner	19–22 Jan	1,119	30.3	30.1	13.5		10.1	6.7		2.2	1.1	6.0	0.2
Pollster / "SE.pl"	13–14 Jan	1,048	32.78	31.69	16.79		7.85	7.89	1.50	1.28	0.22		1.09
United Surveys / "WP.pl"	12–14 Jan	1,000	28.4	27.5	16.9		10.4	6.8			1.5	8.5	0.9
IBRiS / "Rz"	12–13 Jan	1,067	33.9	30.2	16.9		9.3	6.3			0.5	2.9	3.7
CBOS	8–12 Jan	1,000	29	29	10		7	10			4	12	Tie
Opinia24	8–9 Jan	1,002	26.3	24.3	17.3		9.4	10.9	0.9	1.7	0.3	8.9	2.0
IBRiS / Onet	5–8 Jan	1,000	34.2	32.0	14.1		8.8	5.0			0.9	5.0	2.2

2023 parliamentary election ^[6]	15 Oct	21,596,674^[6]^[b]	35.38	30.70	14.40		8.61	7.16	1.63	1.86	0.22		4.68

2023

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	United Right	Civic Coalition	Third Way		The Left	Confederation	Nonpartisan Local Government Activists	There is One Poland	Others	Don't know	Lead
			United Right	Civic Coalition	Polish Coalition	Poland 2050	The Left	Confederation	Nonpartisan Local Government Activists	There is One Poland

Pollster / SE.pl	17 Dec	1,033	33.15	31.28	16.95		8.37	6.73	1.46	1.74	0.32		1.87
United Surveys / WP.pl	15–17 Dec	1,000	33.0	28.4	19.1		8.7	7.7			0.8	2.3	4.6
CBOS	2–8 Dec	1,000	30	25	13		9	9			3	12	5
IPSOS / More in Common Polska	1–8 Dec	1,507	31	26	15		10	7			3	5	5
Opinia24	5–6 Dec		29.2	24.7	17.3		8.0	8.0	1.7	1.2	0.3	9.6	4.5
United Surveys / WP.pl	1–3 Dec	1,000	35.2	28.8	16.0		10.0	7.7				2.3	6.4
IBRiS / "Rz"	1–2 Dec	1,071	31.5	27.0	7.3	10.3	9.3	9.0			1.8	3.8	4.5
CBOS	20–24 Nov	821	29	24	13		8	8			5	13	5
United Surveys / WP.pl	17–19 Nov	1,000	31.3	26.7	14.4		10.4	9.1			2.2	5.9	4.6
Social Changes / wPolityce.pl	10–13 Nov	1,081	33	32	14		9	9	2		1		1
Pollster / SE.pl	7–8 Nov	1,014	35.34	30.77	16.68		6.90	7.01	1.36	1.75	0.19		4.57
United Surveys / WP.pl	3–5 Nov	1,000	33.2	30.4	16.1		8.5	6.0			0.3	5.5	2.8
IBRiS / "Rz"	3–5 Nov	1,071	32.6	29.2	7.8	7.6	9.1	7.0			1.1	5.6	3.4
United Surveys / WP.pl	20–22 Oct	1,000	32.8	29.9	18.7		5.4	6.5			3.5	3.2	2.9

Parliamentary election ^[6]	15 Oct	21,596,674^[6]^[b]	35.38	30.70	14.40		8.61	7.16	1.86	1.63	0.22		4.68

Seat projection

231 seats are needed for a Sejm majority, while 276 seats are needed for a three-fifths Sejm supermajority to override presidential vetoes. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/Link	Fieldwork Period	Sample Size	United Right	Civic Coalition	Third Way		The Left	Confederation	German Minority	Majority	KO+TD	KO+L+TD
			United Right	Civic Coalition	Polish Coalition	Poland 2050	The Left	Confederation	German Minority

IBRiS / Onet	18–19 Jun 2024	1,100	186	183	33		20	38	0	Hung	–14	6
IBRiS	3 Jun 2024	1,067	179	174	48		25	34	0	Hung	–8	17
Opinia24	13–14 May	1,000	168	163	60		18	51	0	Hung	–7	11
Research Partner	10–13 May	1,051	180	156	51		33	39	1	Hung	–23	10
United Surveys / WP.pl	19-21 Apr 2024	1,000	173	176	53		32	25	0	Hung	–1	31
OGB	3–5 Apr 2024	1,000	189	175	53		0	42	1	Hung	–2	–2
IBRiS / Onet	4 Apr 2024	1,068	165	175	52		38	30	0	Hung	–3	35
IBSP / Stan Polityki	11 Mar 2024	1,000	166	166	75		17	36	0	Hung	11	28
Research Partner	8–11 Mar 2024	1,088	180	170	42		35	33	0	Hung	–18	17
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM	22–26 Feb 2024	1,000	176	157	63		12	52	0	Hung	–10	2
Pollster / TVP	15–16 Feb 2024	1,034	169	156	80		26	29	0	Hung	6	32
IBSP / Stan Polityki	12–15 Feb 2024	1,000	178	173	69		0	39	1	Hung	12	12
Research Partner	9–12 Feb 2024	1,081	176	159	66		40	19	1	Hung	–5	35
IBRiS / "Rz"	12–13 Jan 2024	1,000	177	155	78		34	16	0	Hung	3	37
IBRiS / Onet	5–8 Jan 2024	1,000	194	166	67		29	4	0	Hung	3	32

Parliamentary election^[6]	15 Oct 2023	21,596,674 ^[6]^[b]	194	157	65		26	18	0	Hung	–8	18

Senate Seat projection

51 seats are needed for a Senate majority, while 374 seats are needed for a two-thirds National Assembly (Senate + Sejm) supermajority to impeach the president. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/Link	Fieldwork Period	Sample Size	Senate Pact					United Right	Confederation	Majority
			Civic Coalition	Polish Coalition	Poland 2050	The Left	SP Ind	United Right	Confederation

Research Partner	9–12 Feb 2024	1,081	74					26	0	24

Parliamentary election^[6]	15 Oct 2023	21,402,998 ^[6]^[c]	66					34	0	16

Government approval ratings

President Andrzej Duda

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm/Link	Sample size	Approve	Disapprove	Don't know/Neutral	Net approval
Date(s) conducted	Polling firm/Link	Sample size			Don't know/Neutral	Net approval
20 May–2 Jun 2024	CBOS	1,038	42	49	9	–7
22–23 Apr 2024	IBRiS / Onet	–	44.5	45.3	9.8	–0.8
8–18 Apr 2024	CBOS	1,079	44	49	7	–5
22–23 Mar 2024	IBRiS / Onet	–	39.7	51.4	8.9	–11.7
7–17 Mar 2024	CBOS	1,089	50	39	11	11
8–18 Feb 2024	CBOS	994	44	45	11	–1
23–24 Feb 2024	IBRiS / Onet	1,100	40.9	50.6	8.5	–9.7
8–18 Feb 2024	CBOS	994	40	52		–12
11–21 Jan 2024	CBOS	1,015	46	42		4
11–21 Jan 2024	CBOS	1,015	43	49	8	–6

Prime Minister Donald Tusk

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm/Link	Sample size	Approve	Disapprove	Neither	Don't know/Neutral	Net approval
Date(s) conducted	Polling firm/Link	Sample size				Don't know/Neutral	Net approval
7–9 Jun 2024	United Surveys / DGP, RMF	1,000	34.5	32.5	32.2	0.9	2.0
22–23 Apr 2024	IBRiS / Onet	–	45.0	49.0		5.7	–4.0
8–18 Apr 2024	CBOS	1,079	41	48		11	–7
22–23 Mar 2024	IBRiS / Onet	–	39.2	51.4		9.3	–12.2
7–17 Mar 2024	CBOS	1,089	44	43		13	1
8–18 Feb 2024	CBOS	994	46	41		13	5
23–24 Feb 2024	IBRiS / Onet	1,100	37.6	46.0		16.4	–8.4
30 Jan –5 Feb 2024	CBOS	994	43	47		10	–4
30 Jan –5 Feb 2024	Morning Consult		52	38			14

Government

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm/Link	Sample size	Approve	Disapprove	Neither	Don't know	Net approval	Notes
Date(s) conducted	Polling firm/Link	Sample size				Don't know	Net approval	Notes
10–12 May 2024	United Surveys / WP.pl	1,000	50.1	46.2		3.7	3.9	Tusk's government
8–18 Apr 2024	CBOS	1,079	35	37	25	3	–2	Tusk's government
7–17 Mar 2024	CBOS	1,089	37	38	22	3	–1	Tusk's government
8–18 Feb 2024	CBOS	994	41	34	22	3	7	Tusk's government
12–14 Jan 2024	United Surveys / WP.pl	1,000	54.5	40.3		5.2	14.2	Tusk's government
12–13 Jan 2024	IBRIS / RZ	1,067	56.3	36.9		6.8	19.4	Tusk's government

Notes

^ Sovereign Poland – 4
^ ^a ^b ^c Turnout: 74.38%
^ Turnout: 74.31%

References

^ "Sejm of the Republic of Poland". www.sejm.gov.pl. Retrieved 2023-10-25.
^ "Test".
^ "Test".
^ https://niepewnesondaze.blogspot.com/
^ "Test".
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h "Wybory do Sejmu i Senatu Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w 2023 r." wybory.gov.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 2023-10-25.

External links

[6] Sovereign Poland – 4

[turnout-sejm-8] Turnout: 74.38%

[turnout-senat-9] Turnout: 74.31%

[1] "Sejm of the Republic of Poland". www.sejm.gov.pl. Retrieved 2023-10-25.

[:1-2] "Test".

[3] "Test".

[4] ttps://niepewnesondaze.blogspot.com/

[5] "Test".

[wyb-7] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h "Wybory do Sejmu i Senatu Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w 2023 r." wybory.gov.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 2023-10-25.

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[2]

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[4]

[5]

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