Opinion polling for the next Italian general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search

In the run-up to the next Italian general election, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention.

Results of such opinion polls are displayed in this article. The date range is from after the previous general election, held on 4 March 2018, to the present day.

Party vote[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

6-point average trend line of poll results starting from 4 March 2018, with each line corresponding to a political party.
  M5S
  PD
  Lega
  FI
  FdI
  LeU
  +E
  NcI
  PaP

2019[edit]

Date Polling firm Sample size M5S PD Lega FI FdI LeU[a] +E NcI PaP Other Lead Govt parties[b] Other
22–25 Mar Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 20.3 21.2 35.8 9.2 4.1 1.5 3.1 1.6 3.2 14.6 56.1 43.9
20–25 Mar SWG 1,500 21.3 21.0 33.4 8.7 4.7 2.3 2.9 2.2 3.5 12.1 54.7 45.3
21 Mar Piepoli 23.0 20.0 31.0 11.5 4.5 2.0 3.0 0.5 4.5 8.0 54.0 46.0
20–21 Mar Euromedia 800 19.8 20.7 33.1 11.4 4.7 2.2 3.6 4.5 12.4 52.9 47.1
20–21 Mar Tecnè 1,000 19.9 21.0 33.1 11.7 4.5 9.8 12.1 53.0 47.0
20 Mar Index 800 20.4 21.2 34.8 9.0 4.4 2.8 2.7 1.7 3.0 13.6 55.2 44.8
19 Mar EMG 1,785 23.4 21.0 30.9 10.0 4.8 3.0 0.6 1.6 4.7 7.5 54.3 45.7
19 Mar Noto 21.0 21.0 32.5 11.0 4.5 1.5 3.5 0.5 1.0 3.5 11.5 53.5 46.5
13–18 Mar SWG 1,500 21.0 21.1 33.9 8.6 4.4 2.4 3.0 2.0 3.6 12.8 54.9 45.1
17–18 Mar Tecnè 1,000 21.8 20.4 31.2 11.9 4.4 10.3 9.4 53.0 47.0
12–13 Mar Index 800 21.3 20.1 34.6 9.1 4.3 2.9 2.7 1.7 3.3 13.3 55.9 44.1
12–13 Mar Demopolis 1,500 22.8 20.2 33.0 8.8 3.6 11.6 10.2 55.8 44.2
11–13 Mar Demos & Pi 1,005 23.2 19.0 34.4 9.6 4.2 2.6 2.5 4.5 11.2 57.6 42.4
12 Mar EMG 1,845 23.8 19.9 30.6 9.8 4.9 3.1 0.6 1.6 5.7 6.8 54.4 45.6
12 Mar Noto 21.0 21.0 32.5 11.5 4.0 1.5 3.5 0.5 1.0 3.5 11.5 53.5 46.5
12 Mar Piepoli 500 24.5 19.0 31.5 11.0 4.0 2.5 3.5 0.5 3.5 7.0 56.0 44.0
6–11 Mar SWG 1,500 21.8 20.3 33.7 8.9 4.1 2.6 2.8 1.9 3.9 11.9 55.5 44.5
6–7 Mar Tecnè 2,000 22.2 20.3 31.2 12.5 4.2 3.3 6.3 9.0 53.4 46.6
5–6 Mar Index 800 21.7 18.9 34.6 9.0 4.5 3.3 2.8 1.8 3.4 12.9 56.3 43.7
5 Mar EMG 1,803 23.2 19.3 31.2 10.2 4.8 3.1 0.6 1.4 6.2 8.0 54.4 45.6
5 Mar Noto 21.0 20.0 33.0 11.0 4.0 1.5 3.5 0.5 1.0 4.5 12.0 54.0 46.0
3–4 Mar Tecnè 1,003 21.8 18.8 32.5 12.0 4.6 10.3 10.7 54.3 45.7
27 Feb–4 Mar SWG 1,500 22.1 19.8 33.4 8.8 4.4 2.4 3.0 2.0 4.1 11.3 55.5 44.5
1–3 Mar Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 21.6 20.3 35.4 8.8 3.8 1.9 3.2 1.7 3.3 13.8 57.0 43.0
27–28 Feb Tecnè 1,000 22.0 18.3 32.5 12.1 4.7 10.4 10.5 54.5 45.5
26–28 Feb Ipsos 1,000 21.2 18.5 35.9 8.6 4.0 2.4 4.0 0.5 4.9 14.7 57.1 42.9
26–27 Feb Index 800 22.1 18.0 34.5 9.1 4.5 3.5 3.0 2.0 3.3 12.4 56.6 43.4
22–27 Feb Bidimedia 1,084 22.7 18.9 32.3 9.5 4.0 2.5 2.6 0.6 1.7 5.2 9.6 55.0 45.0
26 Feb EMG 1,603 23.8 18.2 31.2 10.7 5.0 3.0 0.6 1.6 5.9 7.4 55.0 45.0
25 Feb Piepoli 505 25.0 18.5 31.5 11.0 4.5 1.5 3.5 0.5 4.0 6.5 56.5 43.5
25 Feb Euromedia 800 21.8 18.6 34.6 11.0 4.7 1.9 3.7 w. FI 3.7 12.8 56.4 43.6
20–25 Feb SWG 1,500 22.6 18.5 33.2 8.7 4.3 3.0 3.1 2.3 4.3 10.6 55.8 44.2
19–20 Feb Index 800 22.2 17.5 34.7 8.7 4.5 3.6 2.8 2.2 3.8 12.5 56.9 43.1
19 Feb EMG 1,802 24.8 17.9 30.7 10.3 5.2 3.0 0.7 1.6 5.8 5.9 55.5 44.5
19 Feb Noto 21.0 18.0 35.0 11.0 4.0 2.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 4.0 14.0 56.0 44.0
17–18 Feb Tecnè 1,000 23.2 16.9 33.0 12.0 4.4 10.5 9.8 56.2 43.8
13–18 Feb SWG 1,500 22.1 18.6 33.4 9.0 4.5 2.9 2.9 2.2 4.4 11.3 55.6 44.4
14–17 Feb Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 23.2 18.7 36.2 9.0 3.4 1.8 2.8 1.6 3.3 13.0 59.4 40.6
13–15 Feb Quorum – YouTrend 1,003 24.3 18.0 32.9 10.3 5.1 9.4 8.6 57.2 42.8
12–13 Feb Index 800 22.3 17.3 34.5 8.3 4.6 3.5 2.9 2.3 4.3 12.2 56.8 43.2
12–13 Feb Demopolis 1,500 25.2 17.5 33.0 8.6 3.4 12.3 7.8 58.5 41.5
12 Feb EMG 24.6 18.0 31.4 9.5 4.9 3.0 0.7 2.0 5.9 6.8 56.0 44.0
12 Feb Piepoli 500 27.0 17.5 30.5 10.0 5.0 3.5 2.5 0.5 3.5 3.5 57.5 42.5
12 Feb Euromedia 800 24.0 16.8 34.4 10.5 4.6 3.4 3.3 0.3 2.7 10.4 58.4 41.6
12 Feb Noto 22.0 19.0 34.0 10.0 4.5 2.0 3.5 0.5 1.5 3.0 12.0 56.0 44.0
6–11 Feb SWG 1,500 23.3 17.5 33.8 8.5 4.6 2.7 3.1 2.4 4.1 10.5 57.1 42.9
6–7 Feb Ipsos 1,000 25.4 16.1 34.4 8.1 3.6 2.2 4.2 0.8 5.2 9.0 59.8 40.2
4–7 Feb Tecnè 16,000 25.1 16.7 31.9 11.7 4.5 3.1 7.0 6.8 57.0 43.0
6 Feb Index 800 23.3 17.2 34.2 8.1 4.3 3.0 2.8 2.2 4.9 10.9 57.5 42.5
2–6 Feb Bidimedia 1,113 24.9 18.7 31.3 9.0 3.5 2.6 2.4 0.6 1.7 5.3 6.4 56.2 43.8
5 Feb EMG 1,803 25.1 18.7 30.1 9.7 4.5 3.0 0.8 2.0 6.1 5.0 55.2 44.8
3–4 Feb Tecnè 998 25.0 17.3 32.1 11.7 4.1 9.8 7.1 57.1 42.9
30 Jan–4 Feb SWG 1,500 24.0 16.8 33.8 8.3 4.3 2.9 3.1 2.5 4.3 9.8 57.8 42.2
30 Jan Noto 24.0 19.0 33.0 9.0 4.5 2.0 3.0 0.5 1.5 3.5 9.0 57.0 43.0
29–30 Jan Index 800 23.5 17.5 33.7 7.9 4.3 2.9 2.7 2.0 5.5 10.2 57.2 42.8
28–30 Jan Demos & Pi 1,006 24.9 18.2 33.7 9.4 3.3 2.8 3.0 4.7 8.8 58.6 41.4
29 Jan EMG 1,786 25.8 18.2 30.3 9.2 4.5 3.0 0.8 1.9 6.3 4.5 56.1 43.9
29 Jan Piepoli 503 27.5 17.0 30.0 10.5 4.5 3.0 2.5 0.5 4.5 2.5 57.5 42.5
29 Jan Euromedia 800 24.7 17.2 33.0 10.4 4.6 3.4 2.8 0.5 3.4 8.3 57.7 42.3
27–28 Jan Tecnè 1,000 25.8 17.9 30.2 11.9 4.3 9.9 4.4 56.0 44.0
23–28 Jan SWG 1,500 24.9 17.2 32.6 8.1 4.5 2.6 2.9 2.4 4.8 7.7 57.5 42.5
22 Jan Piepoli 503 28.0 17.0 30.0 10.5 4.5 2.5 2.0 0.5 5.0 2.0 58.0 42.0
22 Jan EMG 1,801 26.5 17.9 30.1 8.9 4.7 2.6 0.7 2.1 6.5 3.6 56.6 43.4
16–21 Jan SWG 1,500 25.7 17.9 31.5 8.6 4.4 2.8 3.0 2.3 3.8 5.8 57.2 42.8
16–17 Jan Tecnè 1,005 25.5 17.6 31.2 12.0 3.9 9.8 5.7 56.7 43.3
15–17 Jan Ipsos 1,000 25.4 17.3 35.8 7.1 3.4 3.5 0.6 6.9 10.4 61.2 38.8
15–16 Jan Index 800 23.9 17.6 33.0 8.0 4.1 2.7 2.5 2.1 6.1 9.1 56.9 43.1
15 Jan EMG 1,794 26.6 18.5 30.6 8.8 4.4 2.1 0.8 1.8 6.4 4.0 57.2 42.8
15 Jan Piepoli 505 28.0 17.5 30.5 10.5 4.0 2.5 2.0 0.5 4.5 2.5 58.5 41.5
15 Jan Euromedia 800 24.7 16.5 31.2 10.5 5.0 3.1 3.1 0.5 5.4 6.5 55.9 44.1
15 Jan Noto 23.0 19.0 32.0 9.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 0.5 1.5 6.0 9.0 55.0 45.0
14–15 Jan Demopolis 1,500 26.5 17.6 32.0 9.0 3.4 11.5 5.5 58.5 41.5
9–14 Jan SWG 1,500 25.2 17.3 32.2 8.2 4.2 3.1 3.2 2.5 4.1 7.0 57.4 42.6
13 Jan Noto 23.0 19.0 34.0 9.0 4.0 2.0 2.5 1.0 1.5 4.0 11.0 57.0 43.0
9–10 Jan Tecnè 2,000 25.5 17.5 30.8 11.7 3.9 3.1 7.5 5.3 56.3 43.7
7–10 Jan Bidimedia 1,096 25.6 18.7 30.8 9.3 3.3 2.4 2.9 0.4 1.4 5.2 5.2 56.4 43.6
8–9 Jan Index 800 24.1 17.5 33.1 7.9 4.1 2.9 2.5 2.2 5.7 9.0 57.2 42.8
8 Jan Piepoli 505 28.0 17.5 31.5 10.0 3.5 2.5 2.0 0.5 4.5 3.5 59.5 40.5
8 Jan EMG 1,540 26.1 19.1 31.0 8.3 4.1 2.0 0.8 2.0 6.6 4.9 57.1 42.9
6–7 Jan Tecnè 1,003 24.9 17.8 31.8 10.9 4.2 10.4 6.9 56.7 43.3
3–7 Jan SWG 1,500 26.3 17.3 32.2 8.3 3.8 2.8 2.9 2.2 4.2 5.9 58.5 41.5

2018[edit]

  1. ^ a b Some polls include former LeU member parties MDP or SI or both, instead of LeU.
  2. ^ a b The incumbent government is the Conte Cabinet, it is supported by M5S and Lega and was sworn in on 1 June 2018.

Coalition vote[edit]

2019[edit]

Date Polling firm Sample size Centre-right M5S Centre-left LeU[a] Others Lead
22–25 Mar Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 50.9 20.3 25.7 1.5 1.6 25.2
21 Mar Piepoli 48.0 23.0 23.5 2.0 3.5 24.5
20–21 Mar Euromedia 800 49.2 19.8 25.3 2.2 3.5 23.9
19 Mar EMG 1,785 46.3 23.4 27.5 2.8 18.8
19 Mar Noto 48.5 21.0 25.0 1.5 4.0 23.5
12 Mar EMG 1,845 45.9 23.8 27.0 3.3 18.9
12 Mar Noto 48.5 21.0 25.0 1.5 4.0 23.5
12 Mar Piepoli 500 47.0 24.5 23.0 2.5 3.0 22.5
6–7 Mar Tecnè 2,000 48.3 22.2 24.0 5.5 24.3
5 Mar EMG 1,803 46.8 23.2 26.9 3.1 19.9
5 Mar Noto 48.5 21.0 24.0 1.5 5.0 24.5
1–3 Mar Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 49.7 21.6 25.1 1.9 1.7 24.6
27–28 Feb Tecnè 1,000 50.4 22.0 22.8 4.8 27.6
26–28 Feb Ipsos 1,000 49.0 21.2 23.5 2.4 3.9 25.5
22–27 Feb Bidimedia 1,084 46.4 22.7 23.9 2.5 4.5 22.5
26 Feb EMG 1,603 47.5 23.8 25.2 3.5 22.3
25 Feb Piepoli 505 48.0 25.0 22.5 1.5 3.0 23.0
25 Feb Euromedia 800 50.7 21.8 23.1 1.9 2.5 27.6
24–25 Feb Tecnè 1,005 49.6 22.2 22.7 5.5 26.9
19 Feb EMG 1,802 46.9 24.8 24.9 3.4 22.0
19 Feb Noto 50.5 21.0 22.0 2.0 4.5 28.5
14–17 Feb Scenari Politici – Winpoll 1,500 50.2 23.2 23.2 1.8 1.6 27.0
12 Feb EMG 46.5 24.6 25.1 3.8 21.4
12 Feb Piepoli 500 46.0 27.0 20.5 3.5 3.0 19.0
12 Feb Euromedia 800 49.8 24.0 20.5 3.4 2.3 25.8
12 Feb Noto 49.0 22.0 23.0 2.0 4.0 26.0
6–7 Feb Ipsos 1,000 46.9 25.4 21.2 2.2 4.3 21.5
4–7 Feb Tecnè 16,000 48.7 25.1 20.8 5.4 23.6
2–6 Feb Bidimedia 1,113 44.4 24.9 23.6 2.6 4.5 19.5
5 Feb EMG 1,803 45.1 25.1 25.7 4.1 19.4
30 Jan Noto 47.0 24.0 22.5 2.0 4.5 23.0
29 Jan EMG 1,786 44.8 25.8 25.5 3.9 19.0
29 Jan Piepoli 503 45.5 27.5 20.0 3.0 4.0 18.0
29 Jan Euromedia 800 48.5 24.7 20.6 3.4 2.8 23.8
22 Jan Piepoli 503 45.5 28.0 19.5 2.5 4.5 17.5
22 Jan EMG 1,801 44.4 26.5 24.6 4.5 17.9
15–17 Jan Ipsos 1,000 46.9 25.4 21.5 6.2 21.5
15 Jan EMG 1,794 44.6 26.6 24.8 4.0 18.0
15 Jan Piepoli 505 45.5 28.0 20.0 2.5 4.0 17.5
15 Jan Euromedia 800 47.2 24.7 20.2 3.1 4.8 22.5
15 Jan Noto 45.5 23.0 22.5 2.5 6.5 22.5
13 Jan Noto 48.0 23.0 22.5 2.0 4.5 25.0
9–10 Jan Tecnè 2,000 46.8 25.5 21.5 6.2 21.3
7–10 Jan Bidimedia 1,096 43.8 25.6 23.9 2.4 4.3 18.2
8 Jan Piepoli 505 45.5 28.0 20.0 2.5 4.0 17.5
8 Jan EMG 1,540 44.2 26.1 25.5 4.2 18.1

2018[edit]

  1. ^ a b After its dissolution on 14 November 2018, some polls might include MDP or SI or both, instead of LeU.

Seat projections[edit]

Chamber of Deputies[edit]

  • 630 seats are available. 316 seats are needed for a majority.
  • In some polls only the 618 constituencies in Italy proper are allocated, while the 12 abroad constituencies are omitted.
Date Polling firm Centre-right M5S Centre-left LeU Others Lead Majority
26 Mar 2019 YouTrend 382 125 107 0 3 257 +66
27 Oct 2018 YouTrend 338 187 90 0 3 151 +22
4 March 2018 General Election 265 227 122 14 2 38 –51

Senate of the Republic[edit]

  • 315 seats are available, plus 6 senators for life. 161 seats are needed for a majority.
  • In some polls only the 309 constituencies in Italy proper are allocated, while the 6 abroad constituencies are omitted.
Date Polling firm Centre-right M5S Centre-left LeU Others Lead Majority
26 Mar 2019 YouTrend 190 61 55 0 3 129 +29
27 Oct 2018 YouTrend 168 93 45 0 3 75 +7
4 March 2018 General Election 137 112 60 4 2 25 –26

References[edit]

  • "PCM Sondaggi Politico Elettorali" [PCM Political Electoral Opinion Polls] (in Italian). Presidency of the Council of Ministers, Department of Information and Publications. n.d. Retrieved 18 January 2018.