2012 Republican Party presidential primaries: Difference between revisions

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|[[File:Mitch Daniels.jpg|100px]]<br/>[[Governor of Indiana|Governor]] '''[[Mitch Daniels]]''' of [[Indiana]]
|[[File:Mitch Daniels.jpg|100px]]<br/>[[Governor of Indiana|Governor]] '''[[Mitch Daniels]]''' of [[Indiana]]
|'''February 10, 2011''': ''Indiana News Center'' writer Scott Sarvay wrote, "Daniels hasn't yet said if he'll run in 2012, although a growing movement is urging him to." <ref>http://www.indianasnewscenter.com/news/political/Governor-Daniels-To-Speak-At-Major-Washington-Event-115725244.html</ref>
|'''February 4, 2011''': ''[[Politico (newspaper)|Politico]]'' reported "Now is the moment in the Republican presidential primary when people who are really running have to start...really running. So Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty have lined up staff and consultants, for instance, while some other oft-mentioned candidates, like Mitch Daniels and John Thune, continue to think about it but haven't done anything mechanical to put a campaign in place."<ref>http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0211/Barbour_expected_to_run.html</ref>


'''February 10, 2011''': ''[[Politico (newspaper)|Politico]]'' reported "For figures still weighing potential candidacies, like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, their words – and the response they get – will be watched closely for signals about their intentions."<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49209.html</ref>
'''February 10, 2011''': ''[[Politico (newspaper)|Politico]]'' reported "For figures still weighing potential candidacies, like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, their words – and the response they get – will be watched closely for signals about their intentions."<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49209.html</ref>

Revision as of 17:28, 10 February 2011

Republican presidential primaries, 2012
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Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic



The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election of 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar

Guidelines for primary and caucus dates

A temporary committee of the Republican National Committee (RNC), set up in 2010 recommended a new plan. Under this plan, the traditional states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina) would hold their events in February, states elected delegates proportionally could hold their events in March, with winner-take-all states and any other remaining states holding their events from April onward.[1] The amendment was passed in August 2010 by the full RNC by a vote of 144-103.[2]

Straw Polls

Results from the 2011 New Hampshire Straw Poll were as followed:

Finish Potential Candidate Percentage of the vote
1 Mitt Romney 35%
2 Ron Paul 11%
3 Tim Pawlenty 8%
4 Sarah Palin 7%
5 Michele Bachmann 5%
6 Jim DeMint 5%
7 Herman Cain 4%
8 Chris Christie 3%
9 Rick Santorum 3%
10 Mitch Daniels 3%
11 Newt Gingrich 3%
12 Mike Huckabee 3%
13 Mike Pence 3%

[3]

Debates

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential debates, 2012

The following debates have been scheduled so far:[4][5]

Primary and caucus dates

  • February 1 - March 5, 2012: Early states (Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucuses, South Carolina primary)[6]
    • February 6 - Expected date of the Iowa caucuses
    • February 14 - Expected date of New Hampshire primary
    • February 18 - Confirmed date of the Nevada caucuses
  • March 6–31, 2012: Primaries (and other contests) that provide for proportional allocation of delegates to the candidates, and all nonbinding caucuses;
  • April 1, 2012 onward: All other contests.

Convention

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled to take place the week of August 27, 2012[7] in Tampa, Florida,[8] the week prior to when the 2012 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place.[9]

Candidates

Filed exploratory committees


Political Consultant and Gay Rights Activist Fred Karger of California (Website) 		Karger has formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.[10][11][12]
Radio talk show host Herman Cain of Georgia

(Website)

Cain has formed a presidential exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination[13][14]

Declared candidates


Perennial candidate Jimmy McMillan from New York (Website) 		On December 23, 2010, McMillan announced on Revolution Radio that he will seek the Republican nomination for President. McMillan, a registered Democrat and founder of the non-qualified Rent Is Too Damn High Party, stated he wanted to avoid a Democratic primary and would switch to the Republican Party to run.[15][16][17] McMillan traditionally runs his campaigns without significant expenditure, which allows him to not have to file with the Federal Election Commission.[18]

Prospective candidates

Current

As the primaries are not scheduled to begin until early 2012, it is too early to definitively determine which prominent public figures will run. The following is a list of individuals who are being discussed – in two or more unique, reputable sources that are less than three months old – in regard to the 2012 primary. They are listed in order of the date of the most recent media citation.


Former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota 		February 8, 2011: The Hill reported "The former Minnesota governor has been steadily shifting his attention to the conservative wing of the GOP as he edges toward a run for the 2012 presidential nomination. Pawlenty would almost certainly have competition for the caucus votes of Iowa's religious conservatives, but he has sought to make it clear that he's no lightweight on the issues."[19]

February 10, 2011: Politico reported For candidates who seem clearly to be running, like former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, they’ll have a chance to send signals about their platforms and positioning."[20]


Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi 		February 7, 2011: RealClearPolitics reported "As Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour steps up his efforts to explore a possible presidential run, he faces one question that none of the other prospective candidates will have to address: can a back-slapping, Ole Miss Rebels fan with a molasses-rich drawl connect on a human level with caucus-goers and primary voters whose cultural roots are far from Yazoo City?"[21]

February 10, 2011: Politico reported "For figures still weighing potential candidacies, like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, their words – and the response they get – will be watched closely for signals about their intentions."[22]


Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts 		February 7, 2011: National Review reported A successful record won’t be a liability on the road to the White House in 2012. Which is why former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is seriously looking at running again, despite much-discussed real and perceived liabilities. He’s got both business and chief-executive political experience — valuable commodities, especially right now, especially in 2012."[23]

February 10, 2011: Politico reported For candidates who seem clearly to be running, like former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, they’ll have a chance to send signals about their platforms and positioning."[24]


Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana 		February 10, 2011: Indiana News Center writer Scott Sarvay wrote, "Daniels hasn't yet said if he'll run in 2012, although a growing movement is urging him to." [25]

February 10, 2011: Politico reported "For figures still weighing potential candidacies, like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, their words – and the response they get – will be watched closely for signals about their intentions."[26]


Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas 		February 3, 2011: The Washington Post reported "Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, both of whom acquired useful experience and credentials while challenging Sen. John McCain in 2008, will almost certainly be back again. They are likely to be joined by Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Haley Barbour of Mississippi and now Jon Huntsman of Utah, who is coming home after serving as ambassador to Beijing."[27]

February 8, 2011: Sunshine News writer Kevin Derby wrote, "Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was an early backer of Marco Rubio’s ambitions to land in the U.S. Senate -- and the once and perhaps future candidate for the Republican presidential nomination took aim at Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson on Tuesday." [28]


Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico 		February 8, 2011: The Daily Caller referred to Johnson as a "potential 2012 presidential candidate."[29]

February 8, 2011: The San Francisco Examiner reported: "Johnson, a likely presidential candidate in 2012, has repeatedly come under attack for his libertarian stances on drug legalization and immigration."[30]


Representative Ron Paul of Texas 		January 28, 2011: Public Policy Polling listed Ron Paul as a potential 2012 presidential candidate.[31]

February 8, 2011: Time magazine reported "Just as he accepts Iowa engagement, a senior advisor to Paul says he might run for president again."[32]


Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin 		January 21, 2011: The Washington Post reported "[Ryan] also demonstrated why Tea Partyers and establishment Republicans might, if given the chance, choose him as the standard bearer in 2012. Judging by tonight, he is fully capable of besting Obama."[33]

February 8, 2011: Editor of The Weekly Standard William Kristol said on MSNBC's Morning Joe, "I can't decide whether the ticket for 2012 should be Ryan/Rubio or Christie/Rubio. And I think it will be one or the other."[34]


Former Governor Bob Riley of Alabama 		February 7, 2011: The Birmingham News reported "Bob Riley, who three weeks ago completed eight years as governor, is being encouraged to seek the GOP nomination for president in 2012 and is actively considering the possibility, sources inside and outside Alabama said."[35]

February 7, 2011: Politico reported "the potential player-to-be-named-later who is just getting on the radar Bob Riley, recently the ex-governor of Alabama after wrapping up eight years at the helm of the southern state. And he's reportedly planning on hopscotching around northern U.S. states, not in an RV or bus, but on a motorcycle."[36]


Senator John Thune of South Dakota 		February 4, 2011: Politico reported "Now is the moment in the Republican presidential primary when people who are really running have to start...really running. So Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty have lined up staff and consultants, for instance, while some other oft-mentioned candidates, like Mitch Daniels and John Thune, continue to think about it but haven't done anything mechanical to put a campaign in place."[37]

February 4, 2011: Politics Daily reported "Because of a popular book, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) -- long assumed to be a likely 2012 GOP primary contender -- might be having second thoughts about running for president."[38]


Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky 		February 4, 2011: Politico reported "Freshman Sen. Rand Paul isn’t ruling out a White House bid just yet — whether in 2012, 2016 or somewhere further down the line."[39]

February 4, 2011: Huffington Post reported "Freshman Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said Friday that it was premature for him to consider running for president, but that he would would be willing to take on the task 'if nominated.'"[40]


United States Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Jr. of Utah 		February 3, 2011: NBC News reported "If Thune decides not to run, it means the eventual GOP field could be WIDE OPEN. This could benefit someone like Tim Pawlenty -- or Haley Barbour or Rick Santorum -- because there will be plenty of room for someone to be the anti-Romney. And it also explains why Jon Huntsman is eyeing a bid. The field is shrinking? Certainly looks that way right now. If Mitch Daniels does NOT run, does that leave Pawlenty as the lone midwesterner?"[41]

February 3, 2011: Politico reported "Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman Jr. are both Mormons, both wealthy scions of old Utah families, both ex-governors with chiseled features and terrific hair. Both also want to be president. And neither has shown much regard for the other."[42]


Former Governor George Pataki of New York 		February 2, 2011: Politico reported: "As he tentatively takes steps in the direction of a White House run, former New York Gov. George Pataki stepped down as chairman of Revere America." [43]

February 3, 2011: Politico reported: "George Pataki could make his decision on a White House bid as early as this month, according to an Iowa fundraiser with ties to the former New York governor." [44]


Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina 		January 31, 2011: National Review Online reported "Over the weekend, one of the big rumors is the possibility of a 2012 bid from Sen. Jim DeMint"[45]

February 3, 2011: The Washington Post reported "Were Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, who entertains hopes of becoming the nominee as a Tea Party favorite, to declare himself the favorite son in the often crucial South Carolina primary, he might well foreclose others from running there, and they would all avoid what could be a damaging loss."[46]


Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania 		January 31, 2011: The Wall Street Journal reported "Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania also have stepped up their conversations recently with potential donors, according to Republican operatives and fund-raisers."[47]

February 3, 2011: NBC News reported "If Thune decides not to run, it means the eventual GOP field could be WIDE OPEN. This could benefit someone like Tim Pawlenty -- or Haley Barbour or Rick Santorum -- because there will be plenty of room for someone to be the anti-Romney. And it also explains why Jon Huntsman is eyeing a bid. The field is shrinking? Certainly looks that way right now. If Mitch Daniels does NOT run, does that leave Pawlenty as the lone midwesterner?"[48]


Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota 		February 2, 2011: The Hill called Bachmann "Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is set to make her second trip to an early presidential primary state later this month when she heads to South Carolina."[49]

February 2, 2011: Politico reported "The Grassroot Institute of Hawaii, a conservative nonprofit think tank, is hosting the Minnesota congresswoman, who received lots of attention last week for her State of the Union response and flirtation with a bid for the Republican nomination."[50]


Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations John R. Bolton of Maryland 		January 24, 2011: Yahoo! News mentioned Bolton as a possible candidate for the 2012 presidential race.[51]

February 2, 2011: Politico reported "Among the most strident recent critics of the Obama administration is one of the least-known 2012 GOP presidential prospects: former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton.[52]


Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia 		January 30, 2011: The Washington Post reported "The former House speaker's appeals to social conservatives in places such as Iowa and South Carolina could be complicated by his very public personal life: He has been married three times."[53]

January 31, 2011: The Wall Street Journal reported "Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania also have stepped up their conversations recently with potential donors, according to Republican operatives and fund-raisers."[47]


Former Governor Buddy Roemer of Louisiana 		January 26, 2011: The Town Talk reported that Roemer said of a 2012 presidential run: "It certainly interests me ... I am making no announcement. I am not running today. It will take months to work out if it happens. I don't want to scare anyone."[54]

January 30, 2011: The News-Star reported Roemer "will announce within the next month whether he will be a candidate for the Republican nomination for president in 2012."[55]

Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska January 29, 2011: CNN reported Palin is a "prominent potential figure" in the 2012 presidential race.[56]

January 30, 2011: The Washington Post reported "The former Alaska governor has done next to nothing to build a national political organization or demonstate the ability - or willingness - to grow beyond her committed social conservative base."[53]


Businessman Donald Trump of New York 		January 27, 2011: Politico reported that Trump had confided to CNN reporter Wolf Blitzer that he would make a decision regarding the 2012 presidential race by June of 2011.[57]

January 27, 2011: Fox News reported that Trump's wife admitted he is considering a 2012 presidential run.[58]


Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York 		January 22, 2011: CNN reported "The names on the straw poll ballot will be listed in alphabetical order.

They are: Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Mitch Daniels, Jim DeMint, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Judd Gregg, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, John Thune and Donald Trump."[59]

January 27, 2011: The New Hampshire Union Leader reported that Giuliani "has not deterred speculation that he's considering running [for President] again in 2012."[60]


Former Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire 		December 23, 2010: The Fosters Daily Democrat reported "One national columnist has speculated New Hampshire's own Judd Gregg, who recently retired after three terms in the U.S. Senate, is considering a run for the presidency in 2012."[61]

January 22, 2011: CNN reported "The names on the straw poll ballot will be listed in alphabetical order. They are: Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Mitch Daniels, Jim DeMint, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Judd Gregg, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, John Thune and Donald Trump."[59]

Declined to run

The following people, who were speculated to be potential candidates have - following the 2010 midterm elections - clearly and unequivocally denied interest, or released Shermanesque statements.

Previous

The following people have been the object of presidential speculation in past media reports, but have not recently signaled an interest in actually running:

Hypothetical polling

References

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