2024 Pakistani general election

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2024 Pakistani general election
← 2018 8 February 2024 2029 →
All 336 seats in the National Assembly
169 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered128,585,760
 
Leader Nawaz Sharif Bilawal Bhutto Zardari Fazal-ur-Rehman
Party PML(N) PPP JUI
Last election 24.35%, 82 seats 13.03%, 54 seats 4.85%, 11 seats
Seats needed Increase 87 Increase 115 Increase 157
Map of Pakistan with National Assembly constituencies
Incumbent Caretaker Prime Minister

Anwaar ul Haq Kakar
Independent



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General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan on 8 February 2024 to elect the members of the 16th National Assembly. The detailed schedule was announced by Election Commission of Pakistan on 15 December 2023.

The two major parties are Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), founded by Imran Khan, was the largest party in the previous elections. However, it is forced to field its candidates as Independents after a controversial Supreme Court ruling stripped them of their electoral symbol in the run-up to the elections.

Background

2018 elections

Further information: 2018 Pakistani general election

General elections were held in Pakistan on Wednesday 25 July 2018 after the completion of a five-year term by the outgoing government. At the national level, elections were held in 272 constituencies, each electing one member to the National Assembly. At the provincial level, elections were held in each of the four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA).

As a result of the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) became the single largest party at the national level both in terms of both popular vote and seats. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remained the largest party in Sindh and the newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) became the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, a hung parliament prevailed with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) emerging as the largest party in terms of directly elected seats by a narrow margin. However, following the support of Pakistan Muslim League (Q) and the joining of independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form the government.

2022 constitutional crisis

Main articles: 2022 Pakistani constitutional crisis, No-confidence motion against Imran Khan, and Lettergate

On 8 March 2022, the opposition parties, under the banner of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), submitted a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan to the National Assembly's secretariat.[1][2] On 27 March 2022, Khan waved a diplomatic cypher from US in the public,[3] claiming that it demanded the removal of Khan's government in a coup.[4] Later he changed his stance about the US conspiracy against his government, in an effort to mend ties with the country.[5][6] However, in August 2023, The Intercept claimed to have published the contents of the diplomatic cable which had American diplomat Donald Lu on record as stating that "all will be forgiven" concerning the country's neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, if the no-confidence motion against Khan were to succeed.[7]

On 1 April 2022, Prime Minister Khan announced that in context of the no-confidence motion against him in the National Assembly, the three options were discussed with "establishment" to choose from viz: "resignation, no-confidence [vote] or elections".[8] On 3 April 2022, President Arif Alvi dissolved the National Assembly of Pakistan on Khan's advice, after the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly rejected and set-aside the motion of no confidence; this move would have required elections to the National Assembly to be held within 90 days.[9][10] On 10 April, after a Supreme Court ruling that the no-confidence motion was illegally rejected, a no-confidence vote was conducted and he was ousted from office,[11][12] becoming the first prime minister in Pakistan to be removed from office by a vote of no confidence.[13][14][15] Khan claimed the US was behind his removal because he conducted an independent foreign policy and had friendly relations with China and Russia. His removal led to protests from his supporters across Pakistan.[16][17][18]

PDM government

After the success of the no-confidence motion, on 11 April 2022, Shehbaz Sharif became the Prime Minister after receiving 174 votes out of a total of 342, two more than the required majority with the support of Pakistan People's Party, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam and various smaller parties under the coalition of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). Dissident members of PTI also supported his candidature. Meanwhile, the remaining PTI members, who were now in the opposition, boycotted the session terming it a continuation of a "foreign conspiracy".[19] A day later, over 100 PTI members tendered resignations from their National Assembly seats.[20]

The PDM government remained in power until 10 August 2023. Sharif's tenure was marked with historic high inflation, contraction of the national economy, and a record devaluation of the local currency.[21][22][23]

Assassination attempt on Imran Khan and his subsequent arrest

Main articles: Attempted assassination of Imran Khan, Arrest of Imran Khan, and May 9 riots

Following its ouster from government, PTI continued to enjoy mass popularity with its supporters taking to the streets across the country.[24] In July 2022, during a provincial bye-election in Punjab, the party had a landslide victory after winning 15 of the 20 seats. During October 2022 bye-elections conducted for the National Assembly, the party won 7 out of 9 seats with Khan winning 6 of the 7 seats he was contesting for.[25] Later in the year, Khan himself lead a well-attended march of protest throughout the populous province of Punjab, in an effort to force an early general election.[26] However on 3 November 2022, while he was leading the march through Wazirabad, he was shot at and injured in an attempted assassination.[27]

As Khan was recovering from the gunshot wounds to his leg, the government registered several cases against him and attempted to arrest him from his home in Zaman Park on two different occasions during March 2023. Each time the police were unable to arrest him as his supporters intervened.[28] Then on 9 May 2023, he was violently arrested by paramilitary forces while marking his attendance at Islamabad High Court in a corruption case. The arrest came a day after the country's army warned him for accusing a high-ranking member of the ISI, Major General Faisal Naseer, of being responsible for the assassination attempt in November 2022.[29] Nationwide violence followed, in what were termed as May 9 riots, with some demonstrators targeting military installations.[30] Following the events, a crackdown was initiated against the party by the country's military establishment. PTI's leaders, party workers, and supporters, as well as those perceived to be allied to the party's cause within the media and legal fraternity were targeted.[31][32] Trials of civilians within military courts were also initiated.[33] Several core leaders of the party have been in hiding since, with many incarcerated or forced to abandon the party.[34] Subsequently, two pro-establishment splinter groups emerged from within PTI, PTI Parliamentarians (PTI-P), led by Pervez Khattak, and Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP), led by Jahangir Tareen.[35][36]

Schedule controversies

In January 2023, in a bid to force early general elections, PTI prematurely dissolved the provincial assemblies it was in power in - namely Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. According to the constitution of Pakistan, after the dissolution of an assembly, elections are supposed to be held there within 90 days. Thus, constitutionally limiting the date for the two provincial elections to be no later than April 2023.[37][38] However, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) delayed the elections to October 2023, citing lack of funds provided by the PDM government and the unavailability of the required security personnel.[39][40] PTI approached the Supreme Court of Pakistan against the electoral body's decision, terming it a violation of the constitution, and with a majority verdict the court declared the ECP's earlier ruling as unconstitutional and ordered it to hold elections by May 14 2023.[41] After the events of May 9 - when violent events broke out in the country following Imran’s arrest - the election date passed without the Supreme Court order being enforced. On May 30th, after the passage of a new law, the PDM government filed a review petition against the court's earlier ruling.[42]

On 10 August 2023, the National Assembly was prematurely dissolved by the President Arif Alvi on the advice of the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This meant that the election must be held no later than 8 November 2023.[43][44] However, on 5 August 2023, the results of the 2023 digital census were approved by the Council of Common Interests headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.[45] Therefore, elections were to be delayed to February 2024 at the latest, as announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan in order to carry out fresh electoral delimitations in light of the approved census results.[46][47] Despite that, on 13 September 2023, President Alvi proposed 6 November 2023 as a date to the ECP and advised it to seek guidance from the Supreme Court for the announcement of the election date.[48] On 2 November 2023, the ECP and the President agreed on 8 February 2024 as the date for the general election.[49][50]

Return of Nawaz Sharif to electoral politics

At the start of May 2023, the PDM government adopted a law that allows for filing of review petitions against prior Supreme Court verdicts.[51] At the end of June, another law, limiting disqualification to five years, was adopted. It also allows the electoral commission to announce the date of an election without consulting the President of the country.[52]

After serving 12 months of his 7-year sentence on corruption charges, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif left the country on 19 November 2019 to receiving medical treatment in London, promising to return in 4 weeks.[53] He was declared a fugitive in 2021 after failing to appear before courts despite summons.[54] Sharif obtained protective bail on 19 October 2023, which allowed him to return from 4 years of self-imposed exile without being arrested.[55] On October 21, he returned to the country where he was welcomed in Lahore by a gathering of tens of thousands of his supporters.[56]

On 9 January 2024, a 7-member Supreme Court bench under Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa, hearing a review petition against lifetime disqualification, announced a 6-1 majority verdict with Justice Yahya Afridi dissenting. The verdict set aside the earlier Supreme Court interpretation of lifetime disqualification for the article 62(1)(f) of the constitution, stating that it violated fundamental rights, and instead set a 5-year disqualification in accordance with the newly passed laws for lawmakers who fail the moral standard of “sadiq and ameen” (honest and righteous).[57] The timing of the verdict ensured that Sharif, who was disqualified for life in the Panama Papers case in 2017, is eligible to contest these elections with a possible fourth term as prime minister.[58]

PTI de facto ban through intra-party election verdict

Main article: PTI intra-party elections case

On 22 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) decided against allowing the PTI to keep its electoral symbol, asserting that the party had failed to conduct intra-party elections to the Commission's satisfaction. Subsequently, on the same day, the PTI appealed to the Peshawar High Court (PHC) challenging the ECP's decision. Consequently, a single-member bench suspended the ECP's order until 9 January 2024. On 30 December 2023, the ECP submitted a review application to the PHC. In the following days, a two-member bench lifted the suspension order while hearing the case. However, on 10 January 2024, the two-member bench deemed the ECP's order "illegal, without any lawful authority, and of no legal effect." Responding to this, on 11 January, the ECP contested the ruling in the Supreme Court.[59]

On 13 January, a three-member bench, headed by Chief Justice Faez Isa, sided with the ECP, reinstating their initial decision to deny the PTI its election symbol, the cricket bat, due to the party's failure to conduct intra-party elections in accordance with its constitution. Consequently, the PTI was unable to allocate party tickets to any of its candidates, resulting in all party candidates being listed as independent candidates with individual electoral symbols.[60] The party also lost the right to nominate candidates for 226 reserved seats across the central and provincial legislatures.[61]

The SCP's decision led some legal experts to describe the ruling as a "huge blow to fundamental rights" and "a defeat for democratic norms."[62]

Imran Khan's convictions

Further information: Legal affairs of Imran Khan

In the week before the elections, Imran Khan was sentenced to jail terms in three separate cases. On 30 January 2024, with the government seeking a death penalty, he was sentenced to 10 years in a case dealing with the handling of state secrets by Judge Abul Hasnat Zulqarnain.[63] A day later, Judge Muhammad Bashir, sentenced him and his wife, Bushra Bibi, to a jail term of 14 years, along with a fine of Rs. 787 million (US$2.7 million) each for retaining a jewelry set that was a state gift from Saudi Arabia against an undervalued assessment from the country's Toshakhana. The ruling also barred Khan from holding public office for 10 years.[64] Two days later, Judge Qudratullah declared the marriage of Khan and his wife against Islamic law and sentenced both to prison for a term of seven years for allegedly solemnizing their marriage during Bushra's Iddah period. The case was lodged on the complaint of Khawar Maneka, Bushra's former husband, five years after her marriage to Khan.[65]

All three trials were held behind closed doors in Adiala Jail, where Khan has been incarcerated since August 2023 on corruption charges, and were marked with rushed proceedings, sudden replacement of defendant's lawyers with state consuls, and other procedural irregularities that led his party to term the decisions to be coming from "kangaroo courts".[66][67][68] Khan's sentencing in the marriage case was decried by lawyers and members of the civil society as an overreach and a blow to women's rights.[69][70][71] Meanwhile, some observers termed the sentencings as a continuation of the Pakistani military's engineering to keep Khan out of power in the upcoming elections.[72][73][74]

Allegations of pre-poll rigging

Further information: Military interventions in the politics of Pakistan

Some observers, including the United Nations and Human Rights Watch, have pointed to what appears to be pre-poll rigging in the run-up to the upcoming elections. There have been notable actions against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and its leaders, including snatching of nomination papers, arbitrary arrests of candidates and their supporters, systematic rejection of nomination papers, and disruption of campaign events. This situation has led to widespread allegations of 'election engineering' and manipulative practices that could potentially favor certain political groups, casting doubts over the fairness of the electoral process.[75][73][76][77] Pakistan’s electoral commission was also accused of gerrymandering in favor of PML-N during the redrawing of voter maps before the elections, with a record 1,300 complaints made.[78]

Many candidates affiliated with the PTI complained that following the ban on usage of the cricket bat as the party’s logo for the ballots, the electoral commission provided them with symbols carrying obscure and awkward connotations such as a bed, an eggplant, which is deemed anatomically suggestive, and a bottle, which carries suggestions of alcohol consumption in the majority-Muslim country.[79]

Censorship

On 26 January 2024, PTI's official website and a separate website made for disseminating information regarding the individual electoral symbols of the party's candidates were blocked in Pakistan.[80] A voter helpline created by the party was also blocked.[81] Previously, social media was blocked in the country during the party's virtual electoral events on at least 3 separate occasions as per internet watchdog, NetBlocks.[82][83]

Journalists covering the elections reported a 'near-blanket ban' on their ability to cover PTI candidates fairly. News channels allegedly received messages from individuals belonging to Pakistan's military establishment instructing them to remove all references to PTI in their visuals, graphics, and talking points.[84]

Electoral system

The 336 members of the National Assembly consist of 266 general seats elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies,[85] 60 seats reserved for women elected by proportional representation based on the number of general seats won by each party in each province, and ten seats reserved for non-Muslims elected through proportional representation based on the number of overall general seats won by each party.

The government had passed a bill that required the next general elections to be held using EVMs (electronic voting machines). This was aimed at bringing an end to the allegations of rigging that have plagued previous elections in Pakistan, but the opposition's opinion was that it would make it extremely easy for PTI to rig the elections in their favour through security loopholes.[86] In 2022 when the PTI-led government was ousted through a successful vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly, the 11 opposition parties, some of them being long-time rivals, formed a new government and passed the Elections Amendment Bill, which nullified the use of EVMs in the next general elections. Hence, EVMs will not be used in next general elections.

Timeline

In July 2023 the ECP invited political parties to submit applications for the allocation of electoral symbols.[87]

As of 25 July 2023, the total number of registered voters in Pakistan stood around 127 million as compared to 106 million (including 59.22 million men and 46.73 million women voters) in 2018, according to the data released by the ECP.[88] According to the figures, the number of eligible female voters stood at 58.5 million (around 46 percent of the total registered voters) while the number of eligible male voters was 68.5 million (about 54 percent of the total voters).[89]

In late September the ECP announced that the citizens over 18 can update their voter details until 25 October 2023. The ECP decided to “unfreeze” the electoral rolls to allow registered voters to rectify or update their details.[90]

On 2 November 2023, President Arif Alvi and the ECP came to an agreement on holding general elections on 8 February, after a meeting was held in Aiwan-i-Sadr on the orders of the Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP). The SCP had instructed the ECP to consult with the President on the poll date.[91]

On 15 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan issued the election schedule. 22 December 2023 was set as the last date for filing nomination papers.[92]

On 22 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan extended the deadline for the submission of nomination papers by two days to 24 December 2023.[93]

Parties

Further information: List of political parties in Pakistan

The table below lists each party that either received a share of the vote higher than 0.5% in the 2018 Pakistan general election or had representation in the 15th National Assembly of Pakistan. Political parties are ordered by their vote share in the 2018 elections. Independent Candidates bagged 11.46% of the vote and 13 national assembly seats (both general seats and total seats in the 15th National Assembly, as reserved seats for women and minorities, are given to political parties) in 2018.

Name Claimed
ideology(ies) 		Leader Voteshare
in 2018 		General seats won in 2018 Seats before election
PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf[a]
پاکستان تحريکِ انصاف 		Populism
Islamic democracy
Welfarism
Civic nationalism 		Imran Khan 31.82%
116 / 272
149 / 342
PML(N) Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ (نواز) 		Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Federalism 		Nawaz Sharif 24.35%
64 / 272
82 / 342
PPP Pakistan People's Party
پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی 		Social democracy
Islamic democracy
Progressivism
Third Way 		Bilawal Bhutto Zardari 13.03%
43 / 272
58 / 342
JUI-F Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl)
جمیعت علماءِ اسلام (ف) 		Islamism
Conservatism 		Fazl-ur-Rahman 4.85%
11 / 272
14 / 342
JI Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan
جماعت اسلامی پاکستان 		Islamism
Islamic revivalism
Social conservatism 		Siraj-ul-Haq
1 / 272
1 / 342
MQM(P) Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan
متحدہ قومی موومنٹ(پاکستان) 		Liberalism
Social liberalism
Social democracy
Muhajir nationalism
Secularism 		Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui 1.38%
6 / 272
7 / 342
TLP Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan
تحریک لبیک پاکستان 		Islamism Saad Hussain Rizvi 4.21%
0 / 272
0 / 342
GDA Grand Democratic Alliance
گرینڈ ڈیموکریٹک الائنس 		Regionalism Pir of Pagaro VIII 2.37%
2 / 272
3 / 342
ANP Awami National Party
عوامی نيشنل پارٹی 		Pashtun nationalism
Democratic socialism
Secularism 		Asfandyar Wali Khan 1.54%
1 / 272
1 / 342
PML(Q) Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ(قائد اعظم) 		Conservatism
Pakistani nationalism 		Shujaat Hussain 0.97%
4 / 272
5 / 342
BAP Balochistan Awami Party
بلوچستان عوامی پارٹی 		Federalism
Islamic democracy 		Khalid Hussain Magsi 0.60%
4 / 272
5 / 342
BNP(M) Balochistan National Party (Mengal)
بلوچستان نيشنل پارٹی(مینگل) 		Baloch nationalism
Democratic socialism
Secularism 		Akhtar Mengal 0.45%
3 / 272
4 / 342
AML Awami Muslim League Pakistan
عوامی مسلم لیگ پاکستان 		Islamism
Populism 		Shaikh Rasheed Ahmad 0.22%
1 / 272
1 / 342
JWP Jamhoori Wattan Party
جمہوری وطن پارٹی 		Baloch nationalism Shahzain Bugti 0.04%
1 / 272
1 / 342

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 Pakistani general election
Last date
of polling 		Polling firm Link PTI PML(N) PPP MMA[b] TLP Other Ind. Lead Margin
of error 		Sample
size 		Undecideds &
Non-voters[c]
30 June 2023 Gallup Pakistan PDF 42% 20% 12% 4% 4% 5% 22% ±2.5% 3,500 13%
3 June 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 39% 33% 12% 7% 4% 5% 6% ±2 - 3% 2,003 25%
21 March 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 35% 33% 19% 6% 4% 3% 2% ±2 - 3% 3,509 16%
31 January 2022 Gallup Pakistan PDF 34% 33% 15% 6% 3% 9% 1% ±3 - 5% 5,688 33%
9 January 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 31% 33% 17% 3% 3% 11% 1% 2% ±2 - 3% 3,769 11%
11 November 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 36% 38% 13% 4% 3% 6% 2% ±3.22% 2,003 32%
13 August 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 33% 38% 15% 3% 3% 8% 5% ±2.95% 2,024 26%
30 June 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 24% 27% 11% 3% 2% 33% 3% ±2.38% 1,702 N/A[d]
24 June 2019 Gallup Pakistan PDF 31% 28% 15% 5% 21% 3% ±3 - 5% ~1,400 N/A
22 November 2018 IPOR (IRI) PDF 43% 27% 15% 1% 1% 11% 1% 16% ±2.05% 3,991 22%
25 July 2018 2018 Elections ECP 31.8% 24.3% 13.0% 4.8% 4.2% 10.3% 11.5% 7.5% N/A 53,123,733 N/A
  1. ^ Running as Independent candidates
  2. ^ Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA, and in those cases data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.
  3. ^ This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
  4. ^ This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.

Security concerns and violence

The Election Commission of Pakistan categorised half the country’s 90,675 polling stations as either "sensitive", meaning there is a risk of violence, or "most sensitive", indicating a higher risk. The classifications were based on the area’s security situation and history of electoral violence.[94] In Balochistan Province alone, caretaker provincial home minister Muhammad Zubair Jamali said that almost 80% of its 5,028 polling stations had been declared "sensitive".[95]

Pre-poll violence

On 25 January 2024, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan pledged not to stage attacks on election rallies and would limit itself to attacking military and police targets during the election period. This followed the government's decision to deploy troops in sensitive constituencies after intelligence agencies warned that militants could target rallies.[96]

At least two candidates have been killed during the election campaign. On 10 January, Malik Kaleem Ullah, an independent candidate for the Provincial Assembly of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, was shot dead while on a door to door sortie, while on 31 January, Rehan Zeb Khan, an independent candidate affiliated with the PTI, was killed after gunmen opened fire on his car in a market in Bajaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in an attack that also injured three people and was claimed by the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K). On 30 January, four people were killed and five others injured in an explosion during a PTI rally in Sibi, Balochistan Province, while on 31 January, 15 people were injured in attacks on residences and offices of PPP candidates and the election office of the PML-N in Balochistan, which was partially claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army.[97] On 7 February, 29 people were killed in explosions outside an independent candidate's office and an office of the JUI-F in Balochistan.[98]

See also

References

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