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2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

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See also: 2021 United States gubernatorial elections

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election
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Nominee TBD Glenn Youngkin
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent Governor

Ralph Northam
Democratic



Elections in Virginia
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
Ballot measures
Statewide
Fairfax County
2016
Alexandria
Mayor
(List)
Henrico County
Commonwealth's Attorney
Norfolk
Mayor
Richmond
Mayor
Virginia Beach
Mayor
City Council

The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ralph Northam is ineligible to run for reelection, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits the officeholder from serving consecutive terms.

The Democratic Party will select its candidate in a primary election on June 8, 2021.[1] The Republican Party held a convention on May 8, 2021, at 37 polling locations throughout the state,[2] after initially being announced it was to be held at Liberty University.[3] On May 10, Glenn Youngkin was declared the Republican nominee,[4] with Winsome Sears as his running mate.[5]

Teacher Princess Blanding is running under the newly formed Liberation Party,[6] while businessman Brad Froman is running as an independent.[7]

Democratic primary

A debate between the five candidates took place on April 6, 2021.[8] Lieutenant governor Justin Fairfax compared scrutiny of his sexual assault allegations to that of the cases of George Floyd and Emmett Till in the debate.[9]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Endorsements

Jennifer Carroll Foy
Federal officials
State delegates
Local official
Organizations
Labor unions
Individuals
Lee J. Carter
Individual
Justin Fairfax
Foreign politician
Terry McAuliffe
Federal officials
Governor
U.S. Representative
State delegates
State senators
Local officials
Labor unions
Newspapers
Individuals
Jennifer McClellan
State delegates
State senators
Local official
Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jennifer
Carroll Foy 		Lee
Carter 		Justin
Fairfax 		Terry
McAuliffe 		Jennifer
McClellan 		Other Undecided
Christopher Newport University April 11–20, 2021 806 (LV) ± 3.9% 5% 1% 8% 47% 6% 2% 31%
Public Policy Polling (D) April 12–13, 2021 526 (LV) ± 4.3% 8% 4% 7% 42% 8% – 29%
Christopher Newport University January 31 – February 14, 2021 488 (RV) ± 4.9% 4% 1% 12% 26% 4% 0% 54%
YouGov Blue (D) February 6–11, 2021 235 (RV) ± 7.4% 7% 6% 6% 43% 8% 0% 30%
Global Strategy Group (D)[A] January 12–20, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% – 14% 42% 6% – 30%
Expedition Strategies (D)[B] December 2020 – (LV) – 5% – 16% 32% 8% – 38%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jennifer Carroll Foy
Democratic Lee J. Carter
Democratic Justin Fairfax
Democratic Terry McAuliffe
Democratic Jennifer McClellan
Total votes 100.00

Republican convention

The Republican nomination process for the 2021 elections was the subject of a lengthy and acrimonious debate within the Republican Party of Virginia.[52][53] On December 5, 2020, the state Republican Party voted to hold a convention instead of a primary by a vote of 41 to 28.[54] State Senator Amanda Chase initially indicated that she would run as an independent,[55] but later decided to seek nomination at the convention. (However, on the day of the convention, she acknowledged that if she did not win the nomination, she may reconsider and run as an independent, although she eventually decided against this.)[56] Faced with pressure from the Chase campaign and activists to return to a primary, the state committee debated scrapping the convention on January 23, 2021. These efforts were unsuccessful and the party reaffirmed their decision to hold a convention.[57] On February 9, 2021, the Chase campaign sued the Republican Party of Virginia, arguing that the convention is illegal under COVID-19-related executive orders signed by Governor Ralph Northam.[58] The Richmond Circuit Court dismissed the Chase campaign's lawsuit on February 19, 2021.[59] The Republican Party of Virginia announced on March 26, 2021, that seven gubernatorial candidates had qualified to appear on the convention ballot.[60] On April 11, 2021, the state Republican Party Rules Committee voted to tabulate the ballots by hand; three days later, however, the committee reversed itself and decided to use a vendor's software-based tabulation method.[52]

On April 20, 2021, five candidates (Amanda Chase, Kirk Cox, Sergio de la Peña, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin) participated in a forum at Liberty University in Lynchburg.[61] Two candidates, Octavia Johnson and Pete Snyder, did not attend the forum.[61][62]

The state Republican convention to select the party's nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general took place on May 8, 2021,[53][52] in "unassembled" format,[52] with ballots to be cast remotely at up to 37 locations statewide[53] using ranked-choice voting.[52] The complex process fueled internal party disputes.[63] Up to 40,000 people were anticipated to become delegates, although not all would necessarily cast votes.[52] Local Republican Party leaders control the application process to become a delegate, decide who can participate (voter registration in Virginia does not include a space to indicate party affiliation), and select the convention voting site.[63] In the preceding Virginia Republican gubernatorial convention, 12,000 participated.[52]

Orthodox Jewish Virginia Republicans asked the party to allow absentee voting for religious reasons (May 8 is on the Jewish Sabbath), but the State Central Committee initially voted down the request, failing to achieve the 75% supermajority needed to change the rules.[64] However, the Virginia GOP has since reversed course, and is now allowing those with religious objections to vote in the May 8 convention via absentee ballots. Republican candidates Kirk Cox, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin had criticized the previous decision to not accommodate Orthodox Jews.[65]

Candidates

Nominated at convention

Defeated at convention

Did not qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Chase
Executive branch officials
Kirk Cox
U.S. Senators
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State delegates
State senators
Individuals
Pete Snyder
U.S. Representative
State delegate
State senator
Individuals
Glenn Youngkin
U.S. Senator
Governor
State senator
State delegate

Polling

Graphical summary

Without convention polling

Primary polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Amanda
Chase 		Kirk
Cox 		Sergio
de la Peña 		Peter
Doran 		Octavia
Johnson 		Pete
Snyder 		Glenn
Youngkin 		Other Undecided
Change Research (D) May 5–6, 2021 605 (LV) ± 4.4% 29% 7% 2% 0% 1% 13% 25% – 25%
Public Policy Polling (D)[C] April 2021 695 (LV) ± 3.7% 22% 7% 3% 1% 0% 16% 21% – 30%
Christopher Newport University January 31 – February 14, 2021 370 (RV) ± 5.6% 17% 10% – – – – 3% – 55%
YouGov Blue (D) February 6–11, 2021 170 (RV) ± 8.6% 19% 6% 1% – – 10% 3% 0% 54%

Convention polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Amanda
Chase 		Kirk
Cox 		Pete
Snyder 		Glenn
Youngkin 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[D] April 29 – May 3, 2021 3,896 (LV) ± 1.6% 10% 10% 26% 38% 13% 3%
Final results by county:
Youngkin
  •   Youngkin—80–90%
  •   Youngkin—70–80%
  •   Youngkin—60–70%
  •   Youngkin—50–60%
Tie
  •   Tie—50%
Snyder
  •   Snyder—50–60%
  •   Snyder—60–70%
  •   Snyder—70–80%
  •   Snyder—>90%

Results

Round-by-round result visualization of the Ranked Choice Voting election
Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee[94]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Glenn Youngkin 4131.80 32.9% 4140.55 33.0% 4148.91 33.0% 4331.93 34.5% 5311.43 42.3% 6869.22 54.7%
Pete Snyder 3241.61 25.8% 3243.84 25.8% 3249.71 25.9% 3502.91 27.9% 4078.25 32.5% 5684.78 45.3%
Amanda Chase 2605.89 20.8% 2611.54 20.8% 2619.83 20.9% 2859.39 22.8% 3164.32 25.2% Eliminated
Kirk Cox 1693.58 13.5% 1698.13 13.5% 1705.90 13.6% 1859.77 14.8% Eliminated
Sergio de la Peña 805.35 6.4% 812.44 6.5% 829.65 6.6% Eliminated
Peter Doran 42.28 0.3% 47.50 0.4% Eliminated
Octavia Johnson 33.48 0.3% Eliminated

Other parties and independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Princess Blanding (Liberation Party), teacher, former school administrator, activist, and sister of Marcus-David Peters[6]
  • Brad Froman (Independent), business owner[7]
  • Timothy Clate Phipps (Constitution Party)[95]

Publicly expressed interest

Declined

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[101] Likely D April 30, 2021
Inside Elections[102] Likely D May 7, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[103] Lean D March 11, 2021

Endorsements

Glenn Youngkin (R)
Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
Governors
State senators
State delegates
Organizations
Individuals

Results

Virginia gubernatorial election, 2021
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic TBD (Democratic Primary will decide)
Republican Glenn Youngkin
Liberation Princess Blanding
Independent Brad Froman

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Carroll Foy's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by McClellan's campaign
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign

References

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  114. ^ Young, Kathryn (May 5, 2021). "Youngkin visits delegates in Albemarle County". CBS19. Retrieved May 8, 2021.
  115. ^ a b Web Staff (May 11, 2021). "Glenn Youngkin wins Virginia GOP nomination for governor". 3WTKR.
  116. ^ Staff, Fox News (May 5, 2021). "VA gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin lays out campaign plan saying 'Virginians are ready for a change'". Fox News. Retrieved May 5, 2021.
Official campaign websites
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