Alaska gubernatorial election, 2018

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Alaska gubernatorial election, 2018

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  Senator Mike Dunleavy.jpg Mark Begich, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
Nominee Mike Dunleavy Mark Begich
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kevin Meyer Debra Call
Popular vote 120,673 98,885
Percentage 52.9% 43.3%

Governor before election

Bill Walker
Independent

Elected Governor

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for Governor and Lieutenant Governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party.

Independent candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor may form a ticket that will appear on the general election ballot, provided that both candidates on the ticket collect enough valid petition signatures, as mandated by the Alaska Division of Elections.

Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary[edit]

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.[clarification needed] In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[1] This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former Senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection.[2]

Governor[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. Senator[3][4]
  • William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010[5]

Polling[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by State House district:
  Begich—80–90%
  Begich—70–80%
  Begich—60–70%
Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Begich 33,451 85.3
Libertarian William Toien 5,790 14.8
Total votes 39,241 100.0

Lieutenant Governor[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors Representative[7][8]

Withdrawn[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by State House district:
  Call—80–90%
  Call—70–80%
  Call—60–70%
Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debra Call 34,291 100.0
Total votes 34,291 100.0

Republican primary[edit]

Governor[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[10][edit]

  • Dorian Colbry
  • Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon[5]
  • Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
  • Merica Hlatcu
  • Michael Sheldon
  • Mead Treadwell, former Lieutenant Governor[11]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Dunleavy
Scott
Hawkins
Mead
Treadwell
Other Undecided
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) June 5–7, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 7% 19% 3% 25%

Results[edit]

Results by State House district:
  Dunleavy—80–90%
  Dunleavy—70–80%
  Dunleavy—60–70%
  Dunleavy—50–60%
  Dunleavy—40–50%
  Dunleavy—30–40%
  Treadwell—40–50%
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Dunleavy 43,802 61.5
Republican Mead Treadwell 22,780 32.0
Republican Michael Sheldon 1,640 2.3
Republican Merica Hlatcu 1,064 1.5
Republican Thomas Gordon 884 1.4
Republican Gerald Heikes 499 0.7
Republican Darin Colbry 416 0.6
Total votes 71,195 100.0

Lieutenant Governor[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by State House district:
  Meyer—50–60%
  Meyer—40–50%
  Meyer—30–40%
  Meyer—<30%
  Grunwald—40–50%
  Grunwald—30–40%
  Grunwald—<30%
  Stevens—50–60%
  Stevens—<30%
  Jackson—<30%
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Meyer 23,838 35.8
Republican Edie Grunwald 18,097 27.1
Republican Gary Stevens 8,123 12.2
Republican Lynn Gattis 6,156 10.4
Republican Sharon Jackson 5,394 8.1
Republican Stephen Wright 4,321 6.5
Total votes 66,671 100.0

Independents[edit]

Governor[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Lieutenant Governor[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

General election[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Independent candidate and incumbent Governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent Lieutenant Governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day).[38][39] However, Walker and Mallott will still remain on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4.[40]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[41] Lean R October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[42] Tilt R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[43] Lean R November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[44] Lean R November 5, 2018
Fox News[45][a] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[46] Lean R November 5, 2018
Governing[47] Tossup November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[48] Lean R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[49] Lean R November 5, 2018

Endorsements[edit]

Mark Begich (D)
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mike Dunleavy (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Federal politicians
State and Local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Alaska Native Corporation
Bill Walker (I) (withdrew)
Organizations

Polling[edit]

with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Walker (I)
Mike
Dunleavy (R)
Mark
Begich (D)
Billy
Toien (L)
Other Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 26–29, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 8% 43% 42% 3% 4%
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 5% 48% 44% 3%
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 27% 43% 26% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–12, 2018 645 24% 43% 23% 9%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 27% 47% 23% 4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 23% 44% 29% 4%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 26% 36% 24% 2% 12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) June 22–28, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 28% 36% 22% 15%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 28% 32% 28% 12%
Alaska Survey Research June 15–21, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 23% 38% 33% 6%
with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mark
Begich (D)
Mike
Dunleavy (R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 52% 4%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 55% 5%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 50% 3%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 46% 44%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 50% 41% 9%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018 761 ± 3.6% 53% 42% 5%

Results[edit]

Alaska gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Mike Dunleavy 120,673 52.9%
Democratic Mark Begich 98,885 43.3%
Independent Bill Walker (incumbent) (withdrawn) 4,493 2.0%
Libertarian William Toien 4,151 1.8%
Majority
Turnout 228,202 100.0%

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

References[edit]

  1. ^ Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News.
  2. ^ Bohrer, Becky (June 2, 2018). "Former Sen. Begich to challenge Walker for Alaska governor". Associated Press.
  3. ^ Herz, Nathaniel (April 30, 2016). "Fear of a Begich bid for governor looms large over Alaska GOP convention". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  4. ^ a b c Herz, Nathaniel (May 28, 2017). "As some drop hints about running for Alaska governor in 2018, Walker remains a wild card". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved May 29, 2017.
  5. ^ a b "2018 Primary Candidate List". Alaska Division Of Elections. Retrieved June 2, 2018.
  6. ^ a b c d Election results
  7. ^ a b c "Alaska lieutenant governor candidate says she is running with Begich in Democratic primary". Anchorage Daily News. 2018-06-01. Retrieved 2018-06-01.
  8. ^ a b Mauer, Richard (June 8, 2018). "Blatchford drops out of race for lieutenant governor". KTUU News. Retrieved June 9, 2018.
  9. ^ "Dunleavy jumps back in governors race". Must Read Alaska. 2017-12-21. Retrieved 2017-12-21.
  10. ^ Alaska Republican Party (August 21, 2018). "State of Alaska Official Ballot" (PDF). www.elections.alaska.gov/. Alaska Division of Elections.
  11. ^ http://www.ktva.com/story/38328900/mead-treadwell-launches-gubernatorial-bid. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  12. ^ "Breaking: Hawkins files for governor; focus will be on economy, dividends, crime - Must Read Alaska". Must Read Alaska. 2017-09-21. Retrieved 2017-09-25.
  13. ^ DeMarban, Alex (July 2, 2018). "Republican Scott Hawkins withdraws from Alaska governor's race, citing entry of Treadwell". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 10, 2018.
  14. ^ a b c d e f Reynolds, Casey (February 1, 2017). "Game Theory: The One Question That Could Decide Who Alaska's Next Governor Will Be". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved February 2, 2017.
  15. ^ Reynolds, Casey (February 17, 2017). "Friday in the Sun!!! (February 17)". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved February 24, 2017.
  16. ^ "Letter of Intent Form". aws.state.ak.us. Retrieved 2017-09-12.
  17. ^ Buxton, Matt (June 16, 2016). "Former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  18. ^ Mike Chennault 3%
  19. ^ a b Mike Chennault 4%
  20. ^ "Lynn Gattis files for lieutenant governor - Must Read Alaska". Must Read Alaska. 2017-08-04. Retrieved 2017-09-05.
  21. ^ Hickman, Matt (21 September 2017). "Grunwald, mother of murdered Palmer teen, joins race for Lt. Governor". Alaska Frontiersman. Retrieved December 9, 2017.
  22. ^ Downing, Suzanne (April 12, 2018). "GOP Sharon Jackson files for lieutenant governor". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
  23. ^ Maguire, Sean (September 7, 2017). "State Senator Kevin Meyer files to be candidate for Lt. Governor, no running mate in mind". KTUU-TV. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
  24. ^ Desroches, Kayla (August 1, 2017). "State Sen. Gary Stevens files to run for lieutenant governor". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
  25. ^ Brooks, James (August 2, 2017). "Kodiak senator is first to seek lieutenant governor's office". Juneau Empire. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
  26. ^ "They are running on principle – just ask them". 2018-03-15.
  27. ^ Manning, Phillip (July 19, 2017). "Senator David Wilson files for lieutenant governor race". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  28. ^ Manning, Phillip (July 20, 2017). "Senator David Wilson says he's not running for Lt. Governor, he filed by accident". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  29. ^ Baird, Austin (July 20, 2017). "Freshman senator launches bid for lieutenant governor, scraps campaign a day later". KTUU-TV. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  30. ^ "Heads and Tails: Campaigns, fundraisers, gaffes, and galas - Must Read Alaska". Must Read Alaska. 2017-08-08. Retrieved 2017-09-05.
  31. ^ a b Press, Associated (May 6, 2018). "Gov. Walker to enter Democratic primary in re-election bid". Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  32. ^ Juneau, Andrew Kitchenman, Alaska Public Media & KTOO -. "Yes, independents can run in Democratic primary, says Alaska Supreme Court". Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  33. ^ Klint, Chris (June 1, 2018). "Walker won't run in Democratic primary". KTVA. Retrieved June 2, 2018.
  34. ^ Zak, Annie (2018-10-19). "Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News. Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved 20 October 2018.
  35. ^ Maguire, Sean. "Lieutenant Governor Byron Mallott files letter of intent for re-election". Retrieved 2017-09-05.
  36. ^ Zak, Annie (2018-10-19). "Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News. Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved 19 October 2018.
  37. ^ CNN, Caroline Kelly,. "Alaska Gov. Bill Walker suspends re-election bid". CNN. Retrieved 2018-11-08.
  38. ^ Hanlon, Tegan (October 19, 2018). "Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News.
  39. ^ Johnson, Kirk (October 19, 2018). "Bill Walker, Governor of Alaska, Suspends Campaign Amid Sinking Polls". The New York Times. Retrieved October 19, 2018.
  40. ^ Zak, Annie; Hanlon, Tegan (September 4, 2018). "Under pressure to withdraw, Begich reaffirms plan to stay in Alaska governor's race". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 21, 2018.
  41. ^ "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  42. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  43. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  44. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  45. ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. 2018-11-09.
  46. ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  47. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
  48. ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  49. ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. 2018-10-17. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  50. ^ Buxton, Matt (June 28, 2018). "Former Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles endorses Begich in race for governor | The Midnight Sun". The Midnight Sun.
  51. ^ Byrnes, Jesse (October 19, 2018). "Alaska governor Walker suspends reelection campaign". The Hill. Retrieved October 19, 2018.
  52. ^ Walker, Rhiannon (September 18, 2018). "Former First Lady Bella Hammond endorses Begich". webcenter11.com.
  53. ^ Beltrami, Vince (October 22, 2018). "Alaska AFL-CIO Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". Alaska AFL-CIO.
  54. ^ Parker, Tim (October 23, 2018). "NEA-Alaska Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". NEA-Alaska. NEA-Alaska’s Political Action Committee on Education.
  55. ^ Cler, Jessica (July 27, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Votes Endorses Mark Begich for Governor of Alaska". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii.
  56. ^ "Mark Begich for Governor - The Alaska Center". The Alaska Center.
  57. ^ "Alaskans Together for Equality Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". Alaskans Together For Equality. August 24, 2018.
  58. ^ Chris Klint (September 5, 2018). "APD's union backs Begich for governor". KTVA.
  59. ^ Donald J. Trump. ".@MikeDunleavyGov will make a fantastic Governor of Alaska. Mike is for Energy and Jobs, is tough on Crime, loves our Vets and our Great Second Amendment. Mike has my Complete and Total Endorsement!". Twitter.
  60. ^ a b "Congressman Don Young & Senator Dan Sullivan Support Mike Dunleavy as Alaska's next Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 22, 2018.
  61. ^ Brooks, James (October 23, 2018). "After Walker quits, governor race now 'down to the wire'". Juneau Empire.
  62. ^ Kitchenman, Andrew (July 18, 2018). "Parnell endorses Dunleavy for governor". ktoo.org.
  63. ^ "Mead Treadwell Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor". Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 4, 2018.
  64. ^ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "Thrilled to have the endorsement of my colleague, Senator MacKinnon. Thank you Anna for your support!". Facebook.
  65. ^ Suzanne Downing (May 16, 2018). "Dunleavy signs three as state campaign co-chairs". Must Read Alaska.
  66. ^ Suzanne Downing (March 5, 2018). "Dunleavy gets a big endorsement from …". Must Read Alaska.
  67. ^ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "I am honored to receive the endorsement of General Joe Ralston. He has been trusted with leading the Alaskan Command, NATO, and serving on the Joint Chiefs. His trust in me is humbling and inspiring". Facebook.
  68. ^ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "Many of us live in Alaska for the unmatched sporting opportunities. I'm proud to earn the endorsement of the Sportsmen's Conservation Alliance, which works to preserve Alaska's fishing, hunting and trapping outdoor heritage traditions". Facebook.
  69. ^ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "The Alaska Outdoor Council works tirelessly for the preservation of outdoor pursuits in Alaska, and conservation of the habitats upon which they depend. I am proud to receive their endorsement in the primary". Facebook.
  70. ^ Kortnie Horazdovsky (October 8, 2018). "State public safety union endorses Dunleavy, Anchorage officers endorse Begich". KTUU.com.
  71. ^ "NRA Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. September 26, 2018.
  72. ^ Anna Rose MacArthur (October 23, 2018). "Calista Switches Endorsement To Dunleavy After Walker Drops Out Of Governor's Race". KYUK.
  73. ^ "Arctic Slope Regional Corporation Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 26, 2018.
  74. ^ "Centrist Project endorses Gov. Bill Walker (I-AK)". Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  75. ^ Zak, Annie (2018-08-25). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Gov. Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News.
  76. ^ Zak, Annie (2018-08-27). "NEA-Alaska endorses Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News.

External links[edit]

Official gubernatorial campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
Alaska Division of Elections